Race To London [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Race To London

ImmzB
10-15-2012, 08:06 PM
22/10/2012 - Week 43: Basel- ATP 500 (Indoor Hard)
29/10/2012 - Week 44: Paris- Masters 1000 (Indoor Hard)
05/11/2012 - Week 45:

Richard still has a chance to qualify for London! He needs to play well in both Basel & Paris!

All the best Richard! Allez!

ImmzB
10-19-2012, 10:05 PM
Hopefully in Del Potro's half. Juan is playing Vienna this week, currently in the SF.

Draw is tomorrow.

Allez Richard! :)

ImmzB
10-20-2012, 03:57 PM
Haase in R1.

In the bottom half with Del Potro.

Draw: http://www.swissindoorsbasel.ch/Tableau-Single.1024+M52087573ab0.0.html

silverwhite
10-20-2012, 11:28 PM
Decent draw

silverwhite
10-20-2012, 11:29 PM
Johan, if you read this, please register on TF and PM me :sobbing:

GasquetGulbis
10-23-2012, 08:30 PM
Tipsarevic and Tsonga are both first round casualties, if Gasquet wins this tournament he bumps up into 9th and puts himself in a great position to make it to the London. Finals would also be good, as I think Gasquet will play well in Paris.

Vlad1980
10-26-2012, 11:45 AM
Tipsarevic and Tsonga are both first round casualties, if Gasquet wins this tournament he bumps up into 9th and puts himself in a great position to make it to the London. Finals would also be good, as I think Gasquet will play well in Paris.

You are making big assumptions here. That's like saying if Richard wins AO, then RG, then Wimbledon, he may actually become number 1.

Fact is, let's me realistic. He is playing Youzhny who has won his last 4 out of 5 matches with scores:
6-3, 6-1
6-0, 6-2
6-0, 6-2
6-3, 6-1. He did lose to Berdych, but he still it shows that he is playing at very high level and I am not even sure Richard is coming in as favorite in this match..

Puschkin
10-26-2012, 03:10 PM
Fact is, let's me realistic. He is playing Youzhny who has won his last 4 out of 5 matches with scores:
6-3, 6-1
6-0, 6-2
6-0, 6-2
6-3, 6-1.

But sometimes things change. ;) Well done Richard for beating Youzhny. It was a good match and both had superbe BH winners.

ImmzB
10-26-2012, 03:30 PM
Allez Richard!! :woohoo:

Vlad1980
10-26-2012, 06:20 PM
But sometimes things change. ;) Well done Richard for beating Youzhny. It was a good match and both had superbe BH winners.

It was a good match. I don't think I've seen Richard play so well indoors since 2007. I think he is playing good enough to beat Del Potro. We'll see.

Schu
10-26-2012, 07:19 PM
Welcome to the TOP 10 Richard (at least in the Race standngs). And YEAH for beating Youzhny who has had your number for a while.

Good, solid play from Richard lately. Never thought he'd play well consistently enough to find himself Top 10 again. And he's doing it on hard/indoor :eek:.

He has been playing well enough to beat Del Potro, let's see what happens tomorrow.

Ben D.
10-27-2012, 08:44 AM
Richard is so close to top 10 now!

ImmzB
10-27-2012, 02:53 PM
6/2 6/2 loss against Del Potro. :sad:

ImmzB
10-27-2012, 04:12 PM
In L'Equipe, Gasquet reveals he has knees issues and is on painkillers. Has refused all propositions for the South America exos.

Hopefully Richard will be able to give 1 final push for London in Paris. Richard who was supposed to play doubles with Benneteau in Paris have pulled out and Benneteau has teamed up with Mannarino. So maybe he doesn't want to play any extra matches which is not needed.

Allez!!

Vlad1980
10-27-2012, 10:13 PM
Richard got roughed up pretty bad by Del Potro who played like a true top 5 player that he should be (and will be, matter of time).
Richard did not serve well at all, and once he got down a break, he panicked a bit.. Overall, he just ran into a very good player who did everything right. Happens.

Richard is in top 10 in Race and very likely he will finish the year top 10, I have to say after that horrible bad terrible match against Mayer at Wimbledon, he has really came back strong and showed consistently good results. If he keeps working hard on his game and improve all parts just a little bit, I think he can stay in top 10, something that should be his next goal. It's one thing to get to top 10, but it is more difficult to play consistently good tennis all year and stay in top 10. Today, a player like Del Potro is a class above him, but he should be able to be competitive with next tier of players like Berdych and Tsonga and certainly Tipsarevic.

Anyway, good luck in Paris!

Puschkin
10-28-2012, 09:32 AM
I don't think that Richard would be ready for London this year, but finishing in the Top Ten would be great. However, most important is Top 12 to have better draws next year.

I think it was a wise decision not to tire himself out in exos in November and December, much better to rest and recharge the batteries. With the better draws in 2013 he will have to adapt his schedule and to further improve his fitness, as he will hopefully last longer in tournaments, and also DC will have to be taken into account. With Gael's future uncertain and Simon not doing great recently, he is almost certain to be selected.

mooncreek
10-28-2012, 04:27 PM
Whether he'd be ready to play London or not, he'll be heading there as the alternate if he finishes this week ranked #10 (he's 80 points ahead of Almagro in the Race rankings for that). I never would have pictured him being in that position but, starting from that bronze medal at the Olympics and the subsequent Toronto run, has been gaining steam.

Ben D.
10-29-2012, 05:47 PM
It will be Anderson on R2, not good nor bad. Surface is slow, may give him time to arm his shots.

Cloudygirl
10-31-2012, 12:26 AM
He still has chance to make wtf outright doesn't he. Not as an alt?

So he's so going to lose tomorrow...

I wish him well anyway. Agree with you his goals for next season should be to stay around top ten and also getting past r4 of a slam again would be nice.

ImmzB
11-01-2012, 03:47 PM
Richard lost 6/7 6/4 1/6 against Anderson and his hopes for qualifying for London is ended!
Richard did have break points early and got into the Anderson service games. He also had set points in the 1st set; I think it 1 or 2. Richard was trailing 1/4* in the TB and he brought it back to 5/4* but then Anderson won the last 3 points to claim the 1st set. Richard broke the Anderson serve in the 9th game of the 2nd set on his 3rd break point and he backed this up with a service hold to take the match into a 3rd set. Anderson started quick by breaking Richard in the 2nd game and then again in the 4th game to race to a 5/0 led. Richard did avoid the bagel but then Anderson served out the match.

I still hope that Richard makes the Alternates for London as it would be good for him to be around the “Finals” atmosphere even though he has played in one of these tournaments back in 2007. I guess his Knee injury is still bothering him so that’s a concern whether to travel to London or not. He could easily pick up some money, sitting around for a week, lol! If someone picks up an injury during the group stages, Richard could be called into action.

If he doesn’t then its season over! It’s been a good one for Richard, very consistent. He couldn’t go further than the 4th round in the Grand Slams which was disappointing even though he lost to great players but the Wimbledon match was a chance missed. Against Mayer, who played good but Richard was poor, especially in the tactics department!

Anyway, let’s see what happens.........

Quetzal
11-01-2012, 06:31 PM
What a silence after defeat :). The season is probably over, but overall it was a really very good year for Richard.
Thank you for that Richard and good luck in 2013.

Puschkin
11-02-2012, 08:16 AM
The season is probably over.
Who knows? ;)

Unless Simon wins the tournament, Richard will be the first replacement for London and so far he said he would go there in that case.

Ben D.
11-02-2012, 06:35 PM
Richie is 'almost' guaranteed to be #12 for Australian Open!
look, worst case scenario: Simon wins Paris (#10) and Almagro wins one or both ties at DC(#11), Richie is then #12 :'(
but!
First week of 2013, 3 simultaneous ATP 250, Chennai, Brisbane, Doha.
Gasquet has 250 or more points ahead of any player below except Monaco and Raonic (Isner comes short at 2215)
Raonic is Chennai titleholder, so no way for him to add points before AO draw.
That leaves only one man, Monaco. He needs to make SFs to add points, and finals to technically outrank Richie.

Schu
11-03-2012, 04:34 PM
[QUOTE=Ben D.;12526282]Richie is 'almost' guaranteed to be #12 for Australian Open! QUOTE]

As a LONG time fan of Richie, I've learned to never worry about seeds. Richie has the ability to make a bad draw look like a piece of cake and unfortunately a good draw end up horrible.

Simon just lost in the semis (and where did this Jerzy guy come from!) so Richard will finish no worse than #11 and if Almagro does not wim a match in DC Richie will "luck out" and finish #10, I THINK???. I say "luck out" because Richard should be the one in control of his ranking and not depend on the losses of others to reach top 10.

This season as in several other seasons, Richard has shown he is capable of playing top 10 tennis but not CONSISTENTLY enough to actually be Top 10. Fortuantely this year the others close to him in the rankings were either plagued by injury or as inconsistent as he, or really not top 10 level.I often think that Richard does not want to be top 10, every time (except one magical year) he gets close he has a tournament like Bercy.

My wish for Richard in 2013 is that he embrasses his talent , enjoys the prospect of being and STAYING in top 10 and stays healthly. (and continues to improve that forehand which actuallyy has been less of a liability the last few months.)

Quetzal
11-03-2012, 09:43 PM
Jerzy Janowicz Jerzy Janowicz :)

afterglows
11-04-2012, 01:40 AM
Top 10 :rocker:

It's really nice to see him here again. Though this week has still a bitter taste. The field was so open in Paris, I would have hoped to see him go further, especially since I had ticket for thursday, I missed him, and I really would have liked to see him played against Berdych.

Still it was a great season, I hope it will continue this way but it's gonna be very hard.
I'm a little worried about the news on his knees problems(at least if those are permanent maybe it will encourage him to play more agressively)

Puschkin
11-04-2012, 03:32 PM
[QUOTE=Ben D.;12526282]Richie is 'almost' guaranteed to be #12 for Australian Open! QUOTE]

As a LONG time fan of Richie, I've learned to never worry about seeds. Richie has the ability to make a bad draw look like a piece of cake and unfortunately a good draw end up horrible.

While this is true, it is still better to meet the Top 4 guys a round later in all GS and MAsters events, i.e. in 13 tournaments.

Look at Tsonga, he only beat a single Top 10 player during the whole year, and managed comfortably to stay TOP 8. The current system protects the better ranked players heavily, so being part of them is a huge advantage.

Well done Richard for returning to the Top Ten! :rocker2:

Schu
11-04-2012, 04:56 PM
[QUOTE=Schu;12529273]

Look at Tsonga, he only beat a single Top 10 player during the whole year, and managed comfortably to stay TOP 8. The current system protects the better ranked players heavily, so being part of them is a huge advantage.

Well done Richard for returning to the Top Ten! :rocker2:

Sort of made my point about consistent play in the BIG tournaments. I'm the last person to say something nice about Tsonga but he got to and stayed in top 8 because of a FINALS in the WTF, a SEMIS and QUARTERS in Grand Slams, 3 or 4 quarters in 1000s, a Finals in a 500 PLUS winning a few 250s. Maybe he only beat 1 top 10 player along the way but he managed to take advantage of "good" draws in the IMPORTANT tournaments to get the points.

KNow you think I'm a negative downer but it is time at age 26 Richard step up on a CONSISTENT basis. He played very well at times and yes, OF COURSE congrats to getting to Top 10 - I'd just like to see him stay there longer than until Almagro wins a DC match in a few weeks. I'll never be cheering harder for Almagro to not win a single match.

ImmzB
11-05-2012, 12:35 PM
Back in the worlds top 10! :) :cool:

On the ATP website for the RACE rankings, they have Almagro at #10 in front of Gasquet who is also at #10........ Isn't is supposed to be Gasquet in front of Almagro because he has more points from the Grand Slams and Masters 1000?

Puschkin
11-05-2012, 06:16 PM
Isn't is supposed to be Gasquet in front of Almagro because he has more points from the Grand Slams and Masters 1000?
Of course it is like that, apparently some sluggish webbie from the ATP doesn't know the rules and simply followed the alphabet. :mad:

BTW: Has anyone heard from Richard in London? I mean a pic or a twit or whatever?
Edit: I saw him at the Tsonga/Djokovic-match.

ImmzB
11-05-2012, 10:32 PM
Of course it is like that, apparently some sluggish webbie from the ATP doesn't know the rules and simply followed the alphabet. :mad:

BTW: Has anyone heard from Richard in London? I mean a pic or a twit or whatever?
Edit: I saw him at the Tsonga/Djokovic-match.

Thanks.

Richard was taking a trip on the boat today. Judy Murray posted a pic of him.

Puschkin
11-22-2012, 09:25 PM
So! Here we are, Richard finished 2012 in the Top Ten and nobody talks about it in his own forum.

Many thanks to some here who managed to destroy this place with their continous pessimism and bashing of the player they were supposed to support. Well done. :rolleyes:

As for myself, I will dedicate most of my time to rgnet. Having said that, many thanks to the few remaining posters, they will know who they are.

PinkFeatherBoa
11-25-2012, 01:50 AM
So! Here we are, Richard finished 2012 in the Top Ten and nobody talks about it in his own forum.

Many thanks to some here who managed to destroy this place with their continous pessimism and bashing of the player they were supposed to support. Well done. :rolleyes:

As for myself, I will dedicate most of my time to rgnet. Having said that, many thanks to the few remaining posters, they will know who they are.

:wavey: Yes, it is a shame to see this place so quiet after Richard gave us all such a great year. Though I can't cast the first stone, since I too have stopped coming here much, it does seem the old regulars have stopped coming here. I suppose we all became too busy but the quietness and lack of enthusiasm round here hasn't made me personally encouraged to return.

I hope in 2013 season we can try and return this forum to life, on my part I will try to make time to visit and post more often when I can. Just wanted to say that I'm sure all the regulars are still out there supporting him fervently and I hope your post could make some of them show up here again. :)

Anyway, congratulations Richard on a great 2012.

Cloudygirl
11-30-2012, 08:13 PM
So! Here we are, Richard finished 2012 in the Top Ten and nobody talks about it in his own forum.

Many thanks to some here who managed to destroy this place with their continous pessimism and bashing of the player they were supposed to support. Well done. :rolleyes:

As for myself, I will dedicate most of my time to rgnet. Having said that, many thanks to the few remaining posters, they will know who they are.

I just don't post much here any more glad Richard had a good year though. Would like him to be consistently top 10 next year.

T.C
09-14-2013, 09:49 PM
I thought I'd restart this thread as well: this "Race to London" thread was started last year. This year, we are lucky that once again, Richard has a viable chance at qualifying for the World Tour Finals in London! The story so far...

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11010 --- 10860
Djokovic* --- 7970 ---10980
Murray* --- 5790 --- 7060
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6850
Berdych --- 3405 --- 4535
Del Potro --- 3365 --- 4425
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2925 --- 3150

Gasquet --- 2765 --- 3165
Tsonga --- 2455 --- 3425
Raonic --- 2105 --- 2555
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2025
Almagro --- 1795 --- 1940
Fognini --- 1785 --- 1945
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1890

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

DBR
09-15-2013, 09:48 AM
Thanks T.C :wavey: Allez Richard!!!!!!

DBR
09-19-2013, 05:23 PM
This from Neil Harman on Twitter, re: Murray's withdrawal from Bangkok today -

Neil Harman ‏@NeilHarmanTimes 14m
Andy Murray will undergo minor surgery on his back next week. Been troubling him some time. London a doubt. Wants to be ready for 2014.

Caly
09-19-2013, 06:35 PM
Bad news for Andy but a huge boost for Richard! I really hope he makes it to the finals, I booked my tickets months ago and have been keeping my fingers crossed to see him there.

DBR
09-19-2013, 07:38 PM
Murray's Management company has said he will definitely miss Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai, but they aren't sure about WTF yet. I hope for his sake the surgery fixes the problem once and for all.

Web source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-2425555/Andy-Murray-undergo-surgery-injured-back.html

Without Murray playing Tokyo, 500 points could potentially be won by Tsonga or Raonic, putting them right back in the WTF race. (especially Jo.) Even if Murray does withdraw from WTF, I think this race is still going to be very, very tight. I really hope Richard can stay healthy and get to London as one of the top 8.

Allez!

T.C
09-19-2013, 10:10 PM
Kei Nishikori is the defending champ and he usually plays well in Tokyo. We'll have to see how Jo's knees hold up. But you're right, I will still be very tight for Richard. I hope he is well rested and plays well.

Puschkin
09-20-2013, 07:42 AM
Without Murray playing Tokyo, 500 points could potentially be won by Tsonga or Raonic
So Del Potro signing up for Tokyo is good news. ;)

DBR
09-20-2013, 09:57 AM
So Del Potro signing up for Tokyo is good news. ;)

Thanks for that! I hadn't heard about it. :)

T.C
09-20-2013, 12:39 PM
Update after Davis Cup

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11015 --- 10860
Djokovic* --- 8110 ---11120
Murray* --- 5805 --- 7075
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6710
Berdych --- 3470 --- 4460
Del Potro --- 3365 --- 4425
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2925 --- 3150

Gasquet --- 2765 --- 3165
Tsonga --- 2455 --- 3425
Raonic --- 2175 --- 2610
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2025
Almagro --- 1795 --- 1940
Fognini --- 1785 --- 1945
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1890

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

Pratik
09-21-2013, 06:59 AM
Even with Murray potentially out, it is going to be close. Tsonga is just 220 points behind (160 if he loses in Final, 60 if he wins Metz).

Puschkin
09-22-2013, 03:02 PM
Thank you, Gillou!

T.C
09-22-2013, 11:22 PM
Update after Metz / St Petersburg

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11015 --- 10860
Djokovic* --- 8110 ---11120
Murray* --- 5805 --- 7075
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6710
Berdych --- 3470 --- 4460
Del Potro --- 3365 --- 4425
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2925 --- 3150

Gasquet --- 2765 --- 3165
Tsonga --- 2605 --- 3325
Raonic --- 2175 --- 2610
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2025
Almagro --- 1795 --- 1940
Fognini --- 1785 --- 1840
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1855

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

T.C
09-29-2013, 03:54 PM
Update after Bangkok / Kuala Lumpur

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11015 --- 10860
Djokovic* --- 8110 ---11120
Murray* --- 5805 --- 7075
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6710
Berdych --- 3575 --- 4520
Del Potro --- 3365 --- 4425
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2970 --- 3150

Gasquet --- 2815 --- 3005
Tsonga --- 2605 --- 3325
Raonic --- 2425 --- 2815
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2025
Almagro --- 1795 --- 1940
Fognini --- 1785 --- 1840
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1855

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

DBR
10-02-2013, 10:21 AM
Well things are getting interesting in the Race (and the ranking!) with Tsonga losing to Dodig in Tokyo R2.

Raonic only played his 1st match Wednesday - he won against Soeda - so I think he's playing every day now for as long as he's still in the tournament.

By the way, T.C ... I meant to say a big "thanks!" for doing all these calculations and keeping on top of this... it's headache-inducing!

T.C
10-02-2013, 11:54 AM
Right now in the Ranking points, Tsonga effectively lost 210 giving him 3115 which is 110 ahead of Richard. So Richard needs to win the next two rounds to pass him.

It looks like Raonic is currently the biggest threat in terms of the Race.

Richie really needs to step up.

afterglows
10-02-2013, 01:06 PM
It looks like Raonic is currently the biggest threat in terms of the Race.

Yes, especially since the indoor season is coming. A big server like him, with good confidence due to couple of good runs in previous tournements can be very dangerous in the end of the year.

I wish Richard chose Tokyo instead of Beijing...

DBR
10-02-2013, 01:51 PM
Right now in the Ranking points, Tsonga effectively lost 210 giving him 3115 which is 110 ahead of Richard. So Richard needs to win the next two rounds to pass him.

I thought that too, but Edouard over on richardgasquet.net just explained it to me...

Richard has 3005 pts but will lose 90 (his current lowest countable score) if he gets to the SF - giving him 2915 before Beijing points are added. He'll then need over 200 Beijing points to pass Tsonga... so must reach the final (300 points) to do that.

DBR
10-02-2013, 01:58 PM
It looks like Raonic is currently the biggest threat in terms of the Race.

Yes, especially since the indoor season is coming. A big server like him, with good confidence due to couple of good runs in previous tournements can be very dangerous in the end of the year.

I wish Richard chose Tokyo instead of Beijing...

I wish Richard had beaten Raonic in the Bangkok SF, like he should have done. I fear he and Berdych have created a monster that is rapidly growing in confidence... another 24 aces against Soeda today. :(

If Raonic gets another title/ top 10 win this week, he is going to be extremely dangerous.

T.C
10-02-2013, 03:22 PM
I wish Richard had beaten Raonic in the Bangkok SF, like he should have done. I fear he and Berdych have created a monster that is rapidly growing in confidence... another 24 aces against Soeda today. :(

If Raonic gets another title/ top 10 win this week, he is going to be extremely dangerous.

Yeah, I was actually really pissed off that Richard lost an eminently winnable match like that. It's just not smart to take those losses. Ljubicic has finally given Raonic the right game style for his strengths and he's winning because of it. Milos still has weaknesses players can exploit but it's more difficult to expose them.

You're probably right. I didn't look at the points breakdown when I did the calculations.

Pratik
10-02-2013, 10:41 PM
I thought that too, but Edouard over on richardgasquet.net just explained it to me...

Richard has 3005 pts but will lose 90 (his current lowest countable score) if he gets to the SF - giving him 2915 before Beijing points are added. He'll then need over 200 Beijing points to pass Tsonga... so must reach the final (300 points) to do that.

Regarding this same point in the race, lowest counted scores:
Gasquet: 45*,90,90. *90 if he beats Tomic
Wawrinka: 90,90,150
Raonic: 45,45,180

3 tournament to put on points in best 6 category: Current 500 week, Moscow 250 week, Basel 500 week.
I don't know what the other two are playing, but Raonic has the best chance to put on points and Stan the worst.
To put on more points:
Gasquet and Wawrinka need(assuming 90 for Gasquet here*): SF in Basel week, F in Moscow week
Raonic needs one round lesser in each tournament, plus huge chance to put on this week with Tsonga out from his half of the draw. A Final this week would now put Raonic ahead of Tsonga in the race!

P.S. I know this calculations aren't worth much, but I thought I'd post them anyway.

Pratik
10-04-2013, 12:37 PM
From my post in GM:

Race:
Gasquet is just 20 points behind #8 Wawrinka.
Tsonga is 300 points behind Gasquet.
Raonic is 90 points behind Tsonga.

Ranking:
Gasquet is 55 points behind #8 Wawrinka with Tsonga in between.
Raonic is 400 points behind Gasquet.

A SF win would put Gasquet ahead of Wawinka in both Race and Ranking. In fact, to #7 in the race, ahead of Federer. These points could be really useful especially since Wawrinka and Tsonga will both have an easier draw(on paper) than Gasquet next week.

DBR
10-04-2013, 01:29 PM
From my post in GM:

Race:
Gasquet is just 20 points behind #8 Wawrinka.
Tsonga is 300 points behind Gasquet.
Raonic is 90 points behind Tsonga.

Ranking:
Gasquet is 55 points behind #8 Wawrinka with Tsonga in between.
Raonic is 400 points behind Gasquet.

A SF win would put Gasquet ahead of Wawinka in both Race and Ranking. In fact, to #7 in the race, ahead of Federer. These points could be really useful especially since Wawrinka and Tsonga will both have an easier draw(on paper) than Gasquet next week.

Thanks Pratik - things are getting really close now! What a race!

Shanghai draw is tomorrow. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a half decent draw and a Ferrer QF. ;)

T.C
10-04-2013, 03:12 PM
I think this race will go down to the wire!

I really hate that fact that Raonic has such an easy draw, but give him credit for his scheduling.

RU90
10-05-2013, 02:02 AM
Shanghai draw is tomorrow. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a half decent draw and a Ferrer QF. ;)

Well, haven't things changed just a bit! ;)

Pratik
10-05-2013, 03:49 PM
Ranking PlayerInitials Points PointDifference(previous_player) PointDifference(first_player)

Race:

#07 RF 3055
#08 SW 2970 -085
#09 RG 2950 -020 -105
#10 MR 2680 -270 -375
#11 JT 2650 -030 -405


Ranking:
#07 RF 4515

#08 SW 3150
#09 JT 3115 -035
#10 RG 3095 -020 -055
#11 MR 2815 -280 -335


RF = Roger Federer
SW = Stanislas Wawrinka
RG = Richard Gasquet
MR = Milos Raonic
JT = Jo Wilfred Tsonga


If MR wins tomorrow, he gets 200 points more(in both ranking and race), so he still remains behind RG in both.

Sorry, T.C. You were doing a great job.

afterglows
10-05-2013, 04:56 PM
Thanks.

This is all so close. Very exiting!!

I remember the last time he battled his way in the WTF, he secured his spot by winning his QF against Murray in Bercy. :hearts:

The ranking was looking like this before Bercy:

7 Blake, James (USA)
8 Robredo, Tommy (ESP)
9 Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI)
10 Haas, Tommy (GER)
11 Berdych, Tomas (CZE)
12 Murray, Andy (GBR)
13 Gasquet, Richard (FRA)
14 Canas, Guillermo (ARG)
15 Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO)

And after Bercy:

7 Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI)
8 Gasquet, Richard (FRA)
9 Nalbandian, David (ARG)
10 Robredo, Tommy (ESP)
11 Murray, Andy (GBR)
12 Canas, Guillermo (ARG)
13 Haas, Tommy (GER)
14 Blake, James (USA)
15 Berdych, Tomas (CZE)

So much movements :lol:

I'll be at Bercy for the R16. If Richard could qualify this day, it would be SO awesome! (wouldn't mind if it was before though)

BTW, I think that if Richard is doing at least as well as JWT newt week, he could become french number 1 again. A title that he lost almost exactly 5 years ago.

DBR
10-05-2013, 06:12 PM
Thanks for the numbers, Pratik. :)

Just had a look at their 2 lowest countable ATP 1000 points in the Race so far.

Federer 0 0

Stan 0 10

Tsonga 0 0

Richard 10 10

Raonic 10 45

So Fed/ Tsonga theoretically in the best position to pick up points at Shanghai/ Bercy and Raonic in the worst, but there's not much in it at all.



BTW, I think that if Richard is doing at least as well as JWT newt week, he could become french number 1 again. A title that he lost almost exactly 5 years ago.

And so, so important for Richard to be at least no. 9 in the world before Bercy to get that top 8 seeding.

Allez Richard!!!!

T.C
10-05-2013, 06:40 PM
Thanks.

This is all so close. Very exiting!!

I remember the last time he battled his way in the WTF, he secured his spot by winning his QF against Murray in Bercy. :hearts:...

I'll be at Bercy for the R16. If Richard could qualify this day, it would be SO awesome! (wouldn't mind if it was before though)

BTW, I think that if Richard is doing at least as well as JWT newt week, he could become french number 1 again. A title that he lost almost exactly 5 years ago.

Thank you for the historical perspective. There is always hope!

Damn, I had originally planned to go to Paris for Bercy right before WTF, but decided to go after instead. I'll have to see if I can move things around.

Pratik
10-05-2013, 07:25 PM
Just had a look at their 2 lowest countable ATP 1000 points in the Race so far.

So Fed/ Tsonga theoretically in the best position to pick up points at Shanghai/ Bercy and Raonic in the worst, but there's not much in it at all.

:confused: Not sure what you mean by this. All 8 mandatory 1000 are counted, no matter what.

DBR
10-05-2013, 08:25 PM
:confused: Not sure what you mean by this. All 8 mandatory 1000 are counted, no matter what.

:facepalm: Ignore me, Pratik! Getting myself confused with all these numbers. Thinking the upcoming Shanghai and Bercy results would replace the two lowest points scores... but of course they just replace Shanghai and Paris from last year. Too many numbers and permutations for my arty brain!

What it should have said (and really this affects the ranking, rather than the Race...) is:

Last year's points dropping after Shanghai and Bercy:

Federer 180 180

Tsonga 180 180

Stan 90 90

Richard 45 10

Raonic 45 90

But it's actually better news for Richard, in terms of the ATP ranking. He is defending less than all the others.

From now on I will leave the points business to you and T.C. ;)

Puschkin
10-06-2013, 08:46 AM
Gracias, Juan Martin. :D

Del Potro did Richard a huge favour today.

I am not looking at the ranking anymore, as the closer we get to the season end, the more it resembles the race. For Shanghai, Tsonga and Raonic have to make the semis to overtake Richard in the race, assuming at the same time that Richard does not score at all.

Pratik
10-06-2013, 09:05 AM
Since DP won, points that as they are. :D

^: It's true that for the WTF, the race is the only thing we need to look at.
But, the rankings do have some important consequences right now. As afterglows pointed out, there is a very good chance for him to ranked the French #1 after Shanghai, which is a matter of pride(Notice how much importance American #1 always gets). Secondly, he has been hovering between 9 and 10(and a week at 11) for a year now. Very Tipsarevic-like. Breaking that would be a big deal. Lastly, ranking is important for the Paris seeding.

Puschkin
10-06-2013, 09:07 AM
Lastly, ranking is important for the Paris seeding.
true of course, but I do expect some withdrawals for Bercy, as every year, Nadal and Berdych among the prime candidates.

And I am not sure if Richard is keen on getting attention as French Number 1, though having him in this position would make me very happy, as I can't stand Tsonga.

T.C
10-06-2013, 09:54 AM
Wow, I was pretty resigned to Milos winning Tokyo (hope for the best, expect the worst) so I was surprised by this result, albeit pleasantly. For now, Richard keeps some breathing room between him and Raonic and is hot on the tail of Wawrinka.

I hope Richard continues playing and improving the way he has been. To borrow from Andy Murray: he's getting closer.

Here's a question for the observant: how many racquets does Richard carry on court and how many does he play with? I see him use only two, switching out every set. When he does, he always asks for his racket to get restrung "for the third set". I don't know whether that means he wants it back ASAP or he wants the tension changed (tighter?) or both. But I think he's the only one who routinely does this, true?

T.C
10-06-2013, 03:53 PM
Update after Beijing / Tokyo

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11310 --- 11160
Djokovic* --- 8610 ---11120
Murray* --- 5805 --- 6895
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6710
Del Potro --- 3820 --- 4925
Berdych --- 3710 --- 4610
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2970 --- 3150

Gasquet --- 2950 --- 3095
Raonic --- 2680 --- 2815
Tsonga --- 2650 --- 3115
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2115
Almagro --- 1930 --- 2030
Fognini --- 1830 --- 1885
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

There are a couple of shuffles to the Race positions: JMDP passed Berdych, and Raonic is now in front of Tsonga.

afterglows
10-06-2013, 07:12 PM
Just saw on GM that the ATP is advertising the WTF in the London tube without Murray on it. (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showpost.php?p=18481769&postcount=18)

Quite weird since this is Great Britain. Gasquet and Wawrinka are on the poster.
Is this make Murray withdrawal almost official? :confused:

Pratik
10-06-2013, 08:18 PM
^ So we can safely say that Roger, Stan and Richard will be playing in the WTF. :angel:

DBR
10-06-2013, 08:46 PM
Just saw on GM that the ATP is advertising the WTF in the London tube without Murray on it. (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showpost.php?p=18481769&postcount=18)

Quite weird since this is Great Britain. Gasquet and Wawrinka are on the poster.
Is this make Murray withdrawal almost official? :confused:

Wow, it's great to see Richard up there on the poster!

As far as I know Murray hasn't officially withdrawn yet... maybe I'm wrong about that? Or maybe they know something we don't?

But I'm not sure Murray even knows the full situation with his back yet...

This from his twitter, tonight...

Andy Murray ‏@andy_murray 57m
"Seeing surgeon/doctor for first time since surgery tomorrow, fingers crossed everything is healing properly and I can start rehab soon!"

T.C
10-06-2013, 09:19 PM
My guess is this is to head off any disappointment should Murray not play as a lot of people apparently wanted/purchased tickets after Murray's Wimbledon win -- clearly these are more Murray fans and not regular tennis fans.

ETA: It looks like Murray is expected to announce next week that he will not be at WTF and will begin his return at Barbados, the same exho that Richard is playing in.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/recovering-andy-murray-plans-for-a-barbados-return-8860087.html

DBR
10-09-2013, 10:34 AM
Murray has now officially withdrawn from WTF....

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/10/41/Murray-Announces-London-Withdrawal.aspx

T.C
10-09-2013, 10:52 AM
Update after Beijing / Tokyo and Murray's withdrawal from WTF

Player --- Race Points --- Ranking Points
Nadal* --- 11310 --- 11160
Djokovic* --- 8610 ---11120
Murray* --- 5805 --- 6895
Ferrer --- 4900 --- 6710
Del Potro --- 3820 --- 4925
Berdych --- 3710 --- 4610
Federer --- 3055 --- 4515
Wawrinka --- 2970 --- 3150
Gasquet --- 2950 --- 3095

Raonic --- 2680 --- 2815
Tsonga --- 2650 --- 3115
Haas --- 2085 --- 2265
Isner --- 2015 --- 2115
Almagro --- 1930 --- 2030
Fognini --- 1830 --- 1885
Robredo --- 1765 --- 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

Puschkin
10-09-2013, 11:45 AM
Murray has now officially withdrawn from WTF....
To be expected, but still fair from him to announce it so early and not keeping everyone guessing.

Pratik
10-09-2013, 12:52 PM
Anderson led 5-2 in the 3rd set TB, but couldn't get it done in the end.
So, Wawrinka starts building a lead.

Puschkin
10-09-2013, 03:05 PM
Anderson led 5-2 in the 3rd set TB, but couldn't get it done in the end.
So, Wawrinka starts building a lead.

Best for Richard if Wawrinka beats Raonic, otherwise the worst case is happening, Wawrinka ahead and Raonic coming closer and closer. In addition, we all should cheer for Nishikori tomorrow.

DBR
10-09-2013, 03:15 PM
Best for Richard if Wawrinka beats Raonic, otherwise the worst case is happening, Wawrinka ahead and Raonic coming closer and closer.

Yes, I think you're absolutely right.

In addition, we all should cheer for Nishikori tomorrow.

And Gael (v Federer)

Allez!

Puschkin
10-09-2013, 03:25 PM
And Gael (v Federer)
As much as I like Gael, I do want Roger in London. ;)

T.C
10-09-2013, 03:42 PM
As much as I like Gael, I do want Roger in London. ;)

Yes, please! I'd love for Roger, Stan, and Richie to all be playing in London!

Puschkin
10-09-2013, 03:47 PM
Yes, please! I'd love for Roger, Stan, and Richie to all be playing in London!
Exactly so, this also clearly says whom we don't want to see there. We want single handed backhands, not servebots.

T.C
10-09-2013, 04:01 PM
Update after Beijing/Tokyo and Murray's announcement of his withdrawal from WTF.


Player Race Points Ranking Points
Nadal* 11310 11160
Djokovic* 8610 11120
Murray* 5805 6895
Ferrer 4900 6710
Del Potro 3820 4925
Berdych 3710 4610
Federer 3055 4515
Wawrinka 2970 3150
Gasquet 2950 3095

Raonic 2680 2815
Tsonga 2650 3115
Haas 2085 2265
Isner 2015 2115
Almagro 1930 2030
Fognini 1830 1885
Robredo 1765 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

Thanks Pratik for the "code" tip!

DBR
10-09-2013, 04:24 PM
As much as I like Gael, I do want Roger in London. ;)

Well I will cheer for Gael myself - both for him and the Race. I don't want Roger to increase his lead over Richard and, to be honest, with only 1 top 10 win this year, I can't say Fed has really earned a place in London.

Puschkin
10-09-2013, 04:29 PM
Well I will cheer for Gael myself - both for him and the Race. I don't want Roger to increase his lead over Richard and, to be honest, with only 1 top 10 win this year, I can't say Fed has really earned a place in London.
But Raonic has made it only once beyond the round of 16 in 4 GS and 7 MC1000 this year, so far. He doesn't deserve it either.

DBR
10-09-2013, 04:37 PM
But Raonic has made it only once beyond the round of 16 in 4 GS and 7 MC1000 this year, so far. He doesn't deserve it either.

Oh you misunderstand me ... I certainly don't want Raonic there. (although he would be one that Richard would have a good chance of beating.)

I want Richard there above everyone else, but I still feel that other Race competitors - ie. Stan - have already (in my mind) earned their place by their performances throughout the year. I don't feel that way about Roger at this point.

Pratik
10-09-2013, 06:00 PM
Best for Richard if Wawrinka beats Raonic, otherwise the worst case is happening, Wawrinka ahead and Raonic coming closer and closer.

Well, at the time of my post the best was Anderson beating Stan and Verdasco beating Raonic :p. Sadly, neither happened.

Of course, as you say, we should be rooting for Wawrinka tomorrow. A Stan win reduces the chance of a YE top 8 finish, but gives a better gap with Roanic. But, the 290 point lead over Raonic in the race has already come down to 190. And the other big problem now is Tsonga. He faces Nishikori followed by a terribly out of form Ferrer for SF points which would leave him 50 points ahead of Richie. Oh, this first round loss is so so costly. This may, very likely, be the deciding factor. In fact now he has to fight even for a top 10 finish, not just a WTF qualification.

DBR
10-09-2013, 06:18 PM
Oh, this first round loss is so so costly. This may, very likely, be the deciding factor. In fact now he has to fight even for a top 10 finish, not just a WTF qualification.

Don't give up yet, Pratik... there is a still a lot of tennis left to play and many points to be won. But Richard is not a machine and cannot play at this level, week after week with no breaks. He had to have some rest... and at least he's getting that now after this early loss.

It's good that he can sit back and watch, and know what he needs to do at the end of this week.

I still believe Moscow is a good option for him, if he's fit... even if he then skipped Basel (or lost early) before Bercy. But he will know a lot more after the matches tomorrow and Friday.

Pratik
10-09-2013, 06:37 PM
Don't give up yet, Pratik... there is a still a lot of tennis left to play and many points to be won. But Richard is not a machine and cannot play at this level, week after week with no breaks. He had to have some rest... and at least he's getting that now after this early loss.

It's good that he can sit back and watch, and know what he needs to do at the end of this week.

I still believe Moscow is a good option for him, if he's fit... even if he then skipped Basel (or lost early) before Bercy. But he will know a lot more after the matches tomorrow and Friday.

Yeah, it's not over, but now the only thing we can do is wish for others to do badly. Considering his draw, maybe it is good that he went early.

ImmzB has not created the next thread yet :eek:
I'll do it and we can continue about Moscow there.

T.C
10-09-2013, 09:16 PM
Oh, this first round loss is so so costly. This may, very likely, be the deciding factor. In fact now he has to fight even for a top 10 finish, not just a WTF qualification.

It's Bangkok. He should have beaten Raonic and then Berdych. Then he would have been ahead of Stan and Milos in the race - I think even Fed - and he would have been seeded in the Top 8 in Shanghai. Such a small thing to make a world of difference...but woulda, coulda, shoulda. :banghead:

Puschkin
10-10-2013, 09:12 AM
Nishikori, useless as ever. :mad:

kmaria28
10-10-2013, 09:50 AM
Absolute agree with you, and Tsonga has a fortunate as always.....

:eek:

Pratik
10-10-2013, 09:51 AM
He was a break up and 3-0 in the TB.
First Anderson, now this.

Puschkin
10-10-2013, 11:11 AM
The luck of the draw, Tsonga has to beat F. Mayer to reach the semis, Richard would have had to deal with Nole at that stage.

DBR
10-10-2013, 12:09 PM
Sorry Puschkin and T.C - I know you guys wanted Federer to win today... but Gael's win is great for him and may also become very important for Richard's chances of getting to London. Tsonga is going to gain a lot of points here, as will either Stan/ Raonic. It would have been bad for Richard if Roger increased his lead too.

T.C
10-10-2013, 02:00 PM
It looks like Richard will fall to #10 or 11 in the Race - 1st or 2nd alternate - after Shanghai.

ETA: Actually I'm wrong. I was adding semi-final points for Tsonga & Raonic prematurely. If Stan wins, he jumps over Roger to 7th place.

ImmzB
10-10-2013, 03:12 PM
Wawrinka beat Raonic.

Richard is 190 points ahead of Raonic and if Tsonga wins tomorrow he goes ahead of Richard with a 50 point lead into 9th place.

AS IT STANDS TODAY:

7) Stanislas Wawrinka 3150 +1 Shanghai QF - 3330 3970
8) Roger Federer 3145 -1 - Lost in Shanghai R16 - -
9) Richard Gasquet 2960 - - Lost in Shanghai R64 - -
10) Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2830 +1 Shanghai QF - 3010 3650
11) Milos Raonic 2770 -1 - Lost in Shanghai R16 - -

Pratik
10-10-2013, 03:19 PM
Going into Moscow, In the race:

Raonic 11th with 2770
Gasquet 10th with 2960 (+190)
Tsonga 9th with 3010 (+50)(Assuming a SF loss for him)
Federer 8th with 3145 (+135)
Wawrinka 7th with 3150 (+5)(Assuming a QF loss for him)

5 way race for 3 spots.
Gasquet needs a Final in Moscow to put on points. Final will give him 60 points more and a win will give him 160 more.

Pratik
10-10-2013, 03:27 PM
Also, if Tsonga wins his next match, even a Moscow win would not be enough to get Gasquet 8th seed for Paris. (Assuming no further pull outs, of course)

Puschkin
10-10-2013, 03:40 PM
That win from Wawrinka limited the danger a bit. Raonic winning would have been much worse. As for Paris, I can see three possible candidates for withdrawing Berdych, Nadal and Djokovic. Berdych and Nadal are also question marks for Basel in my view.

Pratik
10-10-2013, 04:00 PM
For Paris, one withdrawal would be enough for the 8th seed.
For Basel, he is awkwardly placed 6th. So, if only one of Berdych and Nadal withdraw, it wouldn't make a difference to Gasquet, seeding wise. If both withdraw he would get a top 4 seed but I don't think that is very likely. I want a RG-TB QF at Basel, would be good preparation for the WTF.

T.C
10-10-2013, 04:11 PM
I don't think Nadal will be in Basel. He has bailed before and I think he will again to be fresh for WTF (and Paris). If he doesn't bail, he will lose early.

ImmzB
10-10-2013, 04:44 PM
There's a chance of the top players withdrawin from Paris as London is straight after. So the players may want some extra rest. I think it's unlikely Nadal will play Basel, Paris and London all back 2 back. I think 1 will have to give which could be Basel.

Like I said before, Moscow is a must! Important points can be picked up from there!!

ALLEZ!!

ImmzB
10-10-2013, 04:48 PM
On Raonic, I don't think he will ask for a WC next week. He's had 3 long weeks in Asia and most likely will like to be 100% fresh for Basel and Paris. So it's important Richard can increase his lead over him.

T.C
10-10-2013, 04:53 PM
Provisional Race rankings during Shanghai, after 3rd Round


Player Race Points Ranking Points
Nadal* 11490 11340
Djokovic* 8790 10300
Murray 5805 6295
Ferrer* 4990 6800
Del Potro* 4000 5105
Berdych 3800 4340
Wawrinka 3150 3240 +1
Federer 3145 4245 -1
Gasquet 2960 3060

Tsonga 2830 3115 +1
Raonic 2770 2860 -1
Haas 2265 2265
Isner 2060 2070
Almagro 2110 2200
Fognini 1920 1965
Robredo 1795 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

DBR
10-10-2013, 05:12 PM
On Raonic, I don't think he will ask for a WC next week. He's had 3 long weeks in Asia and most likely will like to be 100% fresh for Basel and Paris. So it's important Richard can increase his lead over him.

I think you're right. Raonic looked tired and slow today.

Allez Richard in Moscow!!!!

ImmzB
10-10-2013, 08:11 PM
Apparently Vienna are saving a WC for Federer. It's up to him if he wants it.

Rychu
10-10-2013, 08:18 PM
Apparently Vienna are saving a WC for Federer. It's up to him if he wants it.

He needs more playing time. As for Richard, wish him the best but it will be a titanic task to overtake Tsonga,Raonic and Stan

Puschkin
10-10-2013, 08:20 PM
He needs more playing time. As for Richard, wish him the best but it will be a titanic task to overtake Tsonga,Raonic and Stan
For the time being, Tsonga and Raonic are behind him. :wavey:

Apparently Vienna are saving a WC for Federer. It's up to him if he wants it.
:topic: As much as I would like to see Roger playing in Vienna, I don't believe in it. That would mean four tourneys in a row, he has not done that when he was younger. Basel is his home tourney, which he can't skip and skipping Bercy would be very risky for him.

T.C
10-11-2013, 12:59 AM
For the time being, Tsonga and Raonic are behind him. :wavey:


:topic: As much as I would like to see Roger playing in Vienna, I don't believe in it. That would mean four tourneys in a row, he has not done that when he was younger. Basel is his home tourney, which he can't skip and skipping Bercy would be very risky for him.

I don't know... I think Fed needs some easy matches to get some momentum behind him. He also really hasn't played much because he's been crashing out much too early.

DBR
10-11-2013, 04:15 PM
Oh crap - Raonic has taken the 3rd wildcard to Stockholm - weak field there.

http://www.stockholmopen.se/en-GB/News#.UlgWI1CTjUU

afterglows
10-11-2013, 06:15 PM
I must say I'm not feeling very optimistic about London anymore.

Tsonga is fresher and is a better indoor player, so now that he's ahead of Richard it will be very hard.

Of course he still can do something great in Paris, I have faith in him, but since the calendar goes this way (atp 250 / atp 500 / M1000) with the big points in the end, it can be dangerous. I'm afraid that if he performes well in both Moscow and Basel, he will be tired in Paris.

DBR
10-11-2013, 07:16 PM
I must say I'm not feeling very optimistic about London anymore.

Tsonga is fresher and is a better indoor player, so now that he's ahead of Richard it will be very hard.

Of course he still can do something great in Paris, I have faith in him, but since the calendar goes this way (atp 250 / atp 500 / M1000) with the big points in the end, it can be dangerous. I'm afraid that if he performes well in both Moscow and Basel, he will be tired in Paris.

A lot can still happen and the draws will play their part. 3 of Richard, Stan, Federer, Tsonga and Raonic will qualify. Raonic is tired/ behind in points and Federer is struggling. Tsonga is not playing Basel, and Vienna has dangerous players like Kohli, Monfils, Hewitt and Pospisil, so it would not be an easy win for Jo. And Stan has had a deep run in Shanghai this week, so he may also be feeling fatigued in Moscow.

There are many points still available and Richard can still qualify – but next week is key. He has to reach the final at the very least. But surely having this week off has done him a lot of good.

I still believe he can do it.

Allez!!!

Pratik
10-11-2013, 08:06 PM
Okay folks, it's time to count our chickens(well before they have hatched). If you don't like that, well, you shouldn't have opened this thread in the first place.

Firstly, we should not be worried about MR taking the WC. I counted his chickens here (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?p=18581865#post18581865), and the numbers are still in our favour.

Now comes the JWT issue which is the easiest for us to beat.

Recap:
Bad News:

JWT plays Vienna and has a 45 pointer to replace.
Vienna has no other top 10 players.
JWT has an amazing Paris record. Last 4 times he played there: QF, F, QF, W
Richie on these faster courts in indoor season :unsure:

Good News:

Vienna has a very strong non top 10 field with Haas, Fognini, Kohli, Melzer, Pospisil, Monfils, Mayer, Brands, Stepanek and Hewitt, many of whom are in good form, so good chance of the upset.
JWT does not play in 500 week(for now).
SW is out of Moscow.


Let's assume for now that Djokovic does us a favour. That would leave JWT 50 points ahead of RG in the race.

Best case for next week: RG wins Moscow(+160 points) and JWT does not win Vienna. A final would give JWT +105 points, which would leave RG 5 points ahead with and extra tournament to spare.
This(RG W, JWT F) would be the most interesting scenario as the two of them, RF and SW would be within 20 points of each other in the race, with RG leading. Basically, if RG wins and JWT doesn't, RG will be leading among the 4.
If RG does not win Moscow and JWT goes far, things would probably look quite bleak as the 100+ point gap would be tough to cover unless one of the other 3 loses very early in Paris.

Irrespective of what happens in Moscow, RG needs a SF in Basel to put on points, which most likely means that he needs to pull one upset.

P.S. Sorry for the rant. That said, I'll probably make a similar rant going into Basel.

DBR
10-11-2013, 09:22 PM
Okay folks, it's time to count our chickens(well before they have hatched). If you don't like that, well, you shouldn't have opened this thread in the first place.

Firstly, we should not be worried about MR taking the WC. I counted his chickens here (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?p=18581865#post18581865), and the numbers are still in our favour.

God, it's so GREAT having maths experts on Team Richard! Thanks for this, Pratik.

Now comes the JWT issue which is the easiest for us to beat.

Recap:
Bad News:

JWT plays Vienna and has a 45 pointer to replace.
Vienna has no other top 10 players.
JWT has an amazing Paris record. Last 4 times he played there: QF, F, QF, W
Richie on these faster courts in indoor season :unsure:

Good News:

Vienna has a very strong non top 10 field with Haas, Fognini, Kohli, Melzer, Pospisil, Monfils, Mayer, Brands, Stepanek and Hewitt, many of whom are in good form, so good chance of the upset.
JWT does not play in 500 week(for now).
SW is out of Moscow.


I didn't know Stan had pulled out – that is great news for Richard. I wonder what Fed will do now. Vienna looks very tricky... hope he doesn't get into Moscow somehow.

Let's assume for now that Djokovic does us a favour. That would leave JWT 50 points ahead of RG in the race.

Best case for next week: RG wins Moscow(+160 points) and JWT does not win Vienna. A final would give JWT +105 points, which would leave RG 5 points ahead with and extra tournament to spare.
This(RG W, JWT F) would be the most interesting scenario as the two of them, RF and SW would be within 20 points of each other in the race, with RG leading. Basically, if RG wins and JWT doesn't, RG will be leading among the 4.

Wow – that would be unbelievably exciting/ scary.

If RG does not win Moscow and JWT goes far, things would probably look quite bleak as the 100+ point gap would be tough to cover unless one of the other 3 loses very early in Paris.

Irrespective of what happens in Moscow, RG needs a SF in Basel to put on points, which most likely means that he needs to pull one upset.

Oh heck, the Basel draw...:scared::scared::scared:

P.S. Sorry for the rant. That said, I'll probably make a similar rant going into Basel.

Never apologise for optimistic rants! :yeah:

Puschkin
10-11-2013, 09:38 PM
hohoho, some interesting developments in the last hours. Most important for Richard now is to keep his cool, focus on himself and his game and NOT spending as much time in calculations as we do.

Pratik
10-11-2013, 10:33 PM
I wonder what Fed will do now. Vienna looks very tricky... hope he doesn't get into Moscow somehow.

As of now, I have assumed that Federer is not playing next week. From what I have understood, Vienna held a WC up until a while ago. I doubt they are still holding it. If Federer would have taken the WC, he would have done so after the Monfils loss, and it would have been official news by now.

Anyway, on the off chance that he does end up taking it, it could be very beneficial to him as he has a 0 and a 90 pointer to replace.

hohoho, some interesting developments in the last hours. Most important for Richard now is to keep his cool, focus on himself and his game and NOT spending as much time in calculations as we do.

Well, I think top players can benefit a lot by looking at such calculations. Of course, it would be someone in their team who does it, not them. The current Raonic example is perfect to prove that. Had his team done some simple number crunching, they would have realised that taking that WC didn't make sense.

Puschkin
10-11-2013, 10:44 PM
Had his team done some simple number crunching, they would have realised that taking that WC didn't make sense.
:eek: Do you really think they did not? Maybe they made a mistake. ;)

Pratik
10-11-2013, 10:58 PM
:eek: Do you really think they did not? Maybe they made a mistake. ;)

Honestly, I don't see them making a mistake like this. All they need to know is the points distribution of 250 and 500s and Raonic's current Race breakdown. Of course they would know each of these.

The way I see these numbers(there is really no crunching to do), the only way he gains "substantial" points by this WC +Basel (over just Basel) is if he gets a 250W and a 500F or if you count a just Basel R1, R2 loss. Which are the two least likely events.

So, I really think that they did not.

Also, I distinctly remember reading an article after the 2009 USO about how Melanie Oudin's team used a lot of statistical analysis which supposedly helped her in that run, and how almost no other pro player's team did something like that. That really stuck with me and I extrapolated for the conclusion here about Raonic. :D

T.C
10-12-2013, 04:10 PM
Honestly, I don't see them making a mistake like this. All they need to know is the points distribution of 250 and 500s and Raonic's current Race breakdown. Of course they would know each of these.

The way I see these numbers(there is really no crunching to do), the only way he gains "substantial" points by this WC +Basel (over just Basel) is if he gets a 250W and a 500F or if you count a just Basel R1, R2 loss. Which are the two least likely events.

So, I really think that they did not.

Also, I distinctly remember reading an article after the 2009 USO about how Melanie Oudin's team used a lot of statistical analysis which supposedly helped her in that run, and how almost no other pro player's team did something like that. That really stuck with me and I extrapolated for the conclusion here about Raonic. :D

I think Milos is playing Stockholm to get points then skipping Basel to be fresh for Paris. That makes the most sense (to me). Hasn't he met all the 500 requirements so he doesn't need to play Basel?

ImmzB
10-13-2013, 10:11 PM
Richard can't overtake Federer or Wawrinka with a title in Moscow.......

T.C
10-14-2013, 01:01 AM
Update after Shanghai


Player Race Points Ranking Points
Nadal* 11670 11520
Djokovic* 9610 11120
Murray 5805 6295
Ferrer* 4990 6800
Del Potro* 4420 5525
Berdych 3800 4340
Wawrinka 3150 3240 +1
Federer 3145 4245 -1
Tsonga 3010 3295 +2

Gasquet 2960 3060 -1
Raonic 2770 2860 -1
Haas 2265 2265
Almagro 2110 2200 +1
Isner 2060 2070 -1
Fognini 1920 1965
Robredo 1810 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

A lot of movement in the Race rankings after Shanghai, the most important being Tsonga overtaking Richard for the last spot at WTF.

Pratik did some best / worst case scenarios in his post earlier (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showpost.php?p=18583657&postcount=114).

Pratik
10-14-2013, 07:03 AM
Richard can't overtake Federer or Wawrinka with a title in Moscow.......

Yeah, you are right. And that line should be 35 points, not 20.
Sorry. :o

T.C
10-20-2013, 06:39 PM
Happily updating after Moscow / Stockholm / Vienna


Player Race Points Ranking Points
Nadal* 11670 11520
Djokovic* 9610 11120
Murray 5805 6295
Ferrer* 5050 6800
Del Potro* 4420 5365
Berdych 3800 4180
Wawrinka 3150 3240
Federer 3145 4245
Gasquet 3120 3220 +1

Tsonga 3055 3235 -1
Raonic 2770 2860
Haas 2425 2425
Almagro 2110 2200
Isner 2060 2070
Fognini 1920 1965
Robredo 1810 1830

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

Richard leapfrogged over Tsonga to #9 in the Race! With Murray's withdrawal, Richie has the 8th position in London.

Pratik
10-20-2013, 09:15 PM
Player Race Points Ranking Points
Wawrinka 3150 3240
Federer 3145 4245
Gasquet 3120 3220 +1
Tsonga 3055 3235 -1
Raonic 2770 2860

Just to re-iterate what I was saying last week:
MR is now practically out of the contention. If RG and JWT win 0 matches more, MR still needs a SF in Paris to qualify. If RG wins 1 match in Paris, MR needs a F.

With his draw in Basel and the fact that he has a zero-pointer to replace, Federer is basically through. He gains 90 points for just a QF in Basel.

It's a fight for the last two spots between Gasquet, Wawrinka and Tsonga. Most likely outcome in Basel is both RG and SW lose to JMDP. Which means that SW gains 90 points. In Paris, RG would then have to reach the QF with 2 rounds higher than SW or SF(or higher) with one round more. Not too likely.

So, most probably, it will come down to Gasquet and Tsonga in Paris. Whoever reaches a higher round goes through.

afterglows
10-20-2013, 10:01 PM
Thanks for the recap Pratik.


So, most probably, it will come down to Gasquet and Tsonga in Paris. Whoever reaches a higher round goes through.

:scared:

T.C
10-20-2013, 10:40 PM
Which is why Richard shouldn't put too much effort into Basel unless his draw opens up massively. There are no byes but I don't think they will ask him to play before Wednesday.

Pratik
10-22-2013, 07:03 PM
Richard needs to do one of the following in Paris to qualify:
1) Reach the same round as Tsonga. (If Tsonga loses in R16 or earlier, one round lesser will also do)
2) Reach one round higher than Wawrinka.

Very possible considering both JTW and SW's form.
Of course, it would be even lesser if manages to reach SF in Basel.

afterglows
10-22-2013, 07:56 PM
2) Reach one round higher than Wawrinka. (If Richard is 9th seed, both of them losing in R32 will also do).


I thought the 16 seeded players had a bye in Bercy. At least, it was like that last year, a 48 players draw.

Pratik
10-22-2013, 08:00 PM
I thought the 16 seeded players had a bye in Bercy. At least, it was like that last year, a 48 players draw.

Yeah, you are right. I counted it to be a 56 draw. Edited that part out of my post.

T.C
10-27-2013, 06:14 PM
Update after Basel/Valencia


Player Race Points Ranking Points
Nadal* 11520 11520
Djokovic* 9610 11120
Murray 5790 6280
Ferrer* 5200 6600
Del Potro* 4875 5365
Berdych* 3800 4180
Federer 3445 4245 +1
Wawrinka 3150 3240 -1
Gasquet 3120 3130

Tsonga 3055 3235
Raonic 2770 2860
Haas 2425 2425
Almagro 2200 2290
Youzhny 2135 2145
Isner 2060 2070
Fognini 1920 2010

* = already qualified

Upcoming Tournaments (# atp points)
16Sep: Metz (250) / St Petersburg (250)
23Sep: Bangkok (250) / Kuala Lumpur (250)
30Sep: Beijing (500) / Tokyo (500)
06Oct: Shanghai (1000)
14Oct: Moscow (250) / Stockholm (250) / Vienna (250)
21Oct: Basel (500) / Valencia (500)
28Oct: Paris-Bercy (1000)
04Nov: ATP WTF (1500)

bold = Richard is scheduled to play

This week Berdych qualified for the WTF and Federer passed Wawrinka, to effectively take the 6th spot in London. Youzhny showed up in the second list by winning Valencia.

All eyes are on Paris to decide the remaining 3 spots for London.

case
10-28-2013, 01:45 AM
personally, i am hoping stan and jo get lost on their way to the stadium:help::help: :bolt:

i havent played w/ the emoticons in a while!!

DBR
10-28-2013, 01:36 PM
personally, i am hoping stan and jo get lost on their way to the stadium:help::help: :bolt:

So much riding on this tournament for all of them - but it's great news that Richard is fully fit and ready to play!

T.C
10-31-2013, 07:20 PM
Raonic and Haas are done in Paris which means Richie (and Fed and Stan) are playing in the WTF in London!

DBR
10-31-2013, 07:20 PM
Woohoo... Richard has qualified with a little help from Tomas! :yeah: :cheerleader: :dance::woohoo:

Now he can go out and play without any pressure against Kei - fantastic result!!! :yippee:

Well done, Richard ... you have worked so hard for this. You really deserve it! Enjoy!!!! :yeah:

T.C
10-31-2013, 07:21 PM
posted at the same time!

yes, I hope he wins because there are still ranking points to collect and Piatti wants him to face Nadal, right?

Karine579
10-31-2013, 07:24 PM
:bounce::bounce: Richard's going to London!! :bigclap::bigclap:

DBR
10-31-2013, 07:26 PM
posted at the same time!

YAY - you got the three you wanted - congrats! I have to say Fed earned it with Basel, and I always thought Stan should go.

yes, I hope he wins because there are still ranking points to collect and Piatti wants him to face Nadal, right?

Yes, I agree... but I don't know how is thigh is doing. Hope he is able to play at full strength and can really come out and be aggressive tonight.

DBR
10-31-2013, 07:26 PM
:bounce::bounce: Richard's going to London!! :bigclap::bigclap:

YAY!!! You brought him good luck on Tuesday, Karine! :yeah:

Karine579
10-31-2013, 07:27 PM
posted at the same time!

Same, ggrrr my internet's so slow!

yes, I hope he wins because there are still ranking points to collect and Piatti wants him to face Nadal, right?

It would be better for him to win today and lose against Nadal thant against a player behind him in the ranking anyway but yes, I heard Piatti thinks he can beat Nadal here. I'll be more than happy to see that match :D

YAY!!! You brought him good luck on Tuesday, Karine! :yeah:

haha yes that must be the reason ;)

case
10-31-2013, 07:29 PM
ty raonic for stinking at tennis!!!

london!!

case
10-31-2013, 07:33 PM
and one more thing- Gasquet deserves to go this year. it has been a great year

DBR
10-31-2013, 07:34 PM
and one more thing- Gasquet deserves to go this year. it has been a great year

Totally agree! :yeah:

Pratik
10-31-2013, 07:56 PM
:yeah:

The three players most people here wanted.

Not sure that group I want though, except Ferrer instead of DP.

afterglows
11-01-2013, 12:06 AM
:bounce:

Finally it's done!! I'm so happy for him. Congrats Richard!

I decided to miss the Federer match to go see Berdych-Raonic on court 1. This 1st set tie-break really made me nervous, the match was tight, even in the second set when Berdych got the early break, Milos was close.
Thanks Tomas!

Now I hope he will avoid the combo Djokovic-Del Potro in his London's group.

Puschkin
11-01-2013, 12:10 AM
YES! I had an appointment this evening and could not watch any tennis, but when I saw that Berdych beat Raonic I was really happy. Now I'm going to watch Richard's mactch against Nishikori.

Richard in London, a well deserved reward for a great season. Bravo!

DBR
11-01-2013, 12:11 AM
:bounce:

Finally it's done!! I'm so happy for him. Congrats Richard!

I decided to miss the Federer match to go see Berdych-Raonic on court 1. This 1st set tie-break really made me nervous, the match was tight, even in the second set when Berdych got the early break, Milos was close.
Thanks Tomas!

Now I hope he will avoid the combo Djokovic-Del Potro in his London's group.

You are so brave!!!! I only dared to watch it on livescore!!!

Must have been terrifying to watch it in the arena! :) Tomas did us proud!!!

Did you see Richard's match too?

DBR
11-01-2013, 12:14 AM
YES! I had an appointment this evening and could not watch any tennis, but when I saw that Berdych beat Raonic I was really happy. Now I'm going to watch Richard's mactch against Nishikori.

It's turning into a very good match up for Richard! :)

Richard in London, a well deserved reward for a great season. Bravo!

+1! :yeah:

Karine579
11-01-2013, 01:05 AM
:bounce:

Finally it's done!! I'm so happy for him. Congrats Richard!

I decided to miss the Federer match to go see Berdych-Raonic on court 1. This 1st set tie-break really made me nervous, the match was tight, even in the second set when Berdych got the early break, Milos was close.
Thanks Tomas!

Now I hope he will avoid the combo Djokovic-Del Potro in his London's group.

I hope you got to see Richard's match as well ! Enjoy while you're there :banana:

afterglows
11-01-2013, 04:49 PM
The three players most people here wanted.


Yep, the last time Roger was not the only member of the one-hander squad in the WTF was in 2007 where Richard and Gonzalez qualified...