Grand Slam qualifying - always lots of upsets

05-25-2012, 08:11 PM
I can't help but notice how many 'upsets' happen in Slam qualifying these days. Only 5/16 men played through their seedings and only 3/12 in the women for Roland Garros. Any thoughts as to why? I guess the underdog in a match fights that much harder, just for the opportunity to play in a slam MD (plus the points and prize money, of course!)

Li Ching Yuen
05-25-2012, 08:18 PM
It's because being the seed doesn't really mean much. As you go down the rankings the number of players that find themselves at similar levels is increasingly larger than on the regular tour.

If on the Atp Tour there's a clear-cut difference between a Top25 player and a player that sits just outside Top75, lower down the rankings a guy ranked quite a bit outside the Top200 may very well beat a guy that's just outside the Top100. The margins are very slim for a wide range of ranking positions in that area.

Filo V.
05-25-2012, 08:45 PM
Match-ups are important as well, as well as lucky. Sometimes a higher ranked guy will go against a darkhorse who is underranked or in great form, such as 7 seed Gil vs Janowicz at this event. Court surface is a major factor, some guys may have the high seed, but in actuality are the underdog in their section as they aren't particularly great on whatever surface the qualifying event is played on. Same goes for WTA qualies.

Of course, though, the #1 thing is, as said, from about 70-200 in the rankings, even players out of the top 200, the difference in level isn't that big.

Filo V.
05-25-2012, 08:47 PM
The only major upsets I see are Levine and Munoz-De La Nava qualifying over Matosevic (or Gicquel) in Levine's case, and in Munoz' case, over Delbonis (who lost to Grigelis). A lot of the guys who weren't ranked were actually one of the favorites in their sections.