Nadal: I follow the Race Ranking, not Entry - explains end of yr results? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Nadal: I follow the Race Ranking, not Entry - explains end of yr results?

Ash86
05-14-2012, 10:19 PM
So, a couple of interesting questions in Nadal's presser today (http://www.internazionalibnlditalia.com/News/Tennis/2012/Interview-Transcripts/Nadal-Monday.aspx) - really really bad paraphrased transcript that I've tried to amend a bit based on the actual video! (http://video.gazzetta.it/i-due-grandi-sconfitti-madrid-puntano-tutto-roma/b7bc8d56-9dea-11e1-ac5d-cd39d854d7a7):

Q: Is it important to get into second place before Roland Garros.
NADAL: I don't know how things are in the race. I think I am third in the race - 100 points behind Roger. That's the most important thing for me. 100 points behind Roger, like 500 points or 550 behind Novak. My position is not bad. My position is the right one. I had a very good start of the season – 2 hard or 3 hard matches. Final of Australia – that makes a big difference - win or lose - it's 800 points and it's a grand slam. Semi finals in Miami I didn't play because of an injury of the knee and last week that we played in very strange conditions. That is a tournament that normally is you know favourable for my game. It's on clay so that's a big change. So these three facts probably that is why I today I am number 3 in the race and not number 2. I am happy I am in Rome to keep playing as I play – to arrive with number 2 or 3 isn't going to change my game. If you are number 2 or 3 then that doesn't change. You just have to win. You have to win in the semi finals – even if you are number 2 or 3 doesn't make a big difference and I want to keep playing and end the clay court season and start the grass court season.

Q: Rafa – you seem to track the rankings. You seem to know what points you have and what the other players have. Do also the other players do this?
NADAL: I think everybody follows. I don't know much about the entry – seriously but the race says what you have been doing during the season. When I start the season in January I see it like a league – a soccer league – you start and then you finish and the entry is there but the race is when you know how you are doing – but the race is the real points that you are playing …. That is the real thing that I follow. You start from zero and you finish at number 6 or number 5 and then you come back to zero again, that is my way of seeing sport.

I've seen pressers of his before where he's talked about the race ranking - even back in 06, 07 etc. where he'd say in Miami for example that he may be world no 2 but in the race he's only 5 etc... It's an interesting way of looking at it i.e. as a football league and the WTF is the last match of the season. With that mentality sometimes the "season" is effectively over in September, as has been the case the last few years as the no.1 is pretty much wrapped up. Could Nadal's mindset of each year being a race to no.1 explain his lack of motivation/energy at the end of the year? When he knows that no.1 has gone/he'll likely end no.2, then it's a bit like teams playing after the league has been lost - they don't have the same desire for it.

I definitely think a lot of Nadal's end of yr let down is mental in that aspect. It can't all be physical as he had a couple of weeks off before Australia (after Davis Cup) and was mentally fresh again. Think it's the "fresh start" of the new year that gives him energy again. Under this philosophy you would think Nadal might value year end no.1 more than overall no.1 which isn't so good for him... It also doesn't help him as by viewing it that way he doesn't perform to his best in tournaments where he could pick up more points which would help him in the following season (e.g. how Fed did it last year - might have ended 3rd but still fought hard and is reaping benefits now....).

Do we think a lot of players on tour have this mentality?

Mongoose
05-14-2012, 10:25 PM
what an idiot

how can he say this while at the same time call for a 2-year ranking system? :lol: :superlol:

Looner
05-14-2012, 10:28 PM
what an idiot

how can he say this while at the same time call for a 2-year ranking system? :lol: :superlol:

Obviously because he was thinking about the welfare of all of the ATP :shrug:

viruzzz
05-14-2012, 10:28 PM
Good thread.
He's probably right in following the race rankings, but race rankings are a little tricky.
If you have your best season on clay, after Roland Garros, you can be N° 1 in the race rankings and not winning a good ammount of points.
The indoor season is at the end of the year, and, for example Federer, is the best indoor player right now and could win 3000 points there (like he did last year).

What he said about the semifinal is true.
If you want to win a tournament you have to be able to defeat everybody.
I mean, it's true that if Murray or Federer don't face Rafa in the semis, it'd be easy to get to the final, but if they wanna win, they've to be able of beating him.

nobama
05-14-2012, 10:59 PM
But I thought he wanted a 2 year ranking? :scratch:

legolandbridge
05-14-2012, 11:15 PM
I like thinking of it as the race rankings too, like F1. Maybe the ATP should not have gotten rid of the Race ranking system.

BauerAlmeida
05-14-2012, 11:19 PM
I like thinking of it as the race rankings too, like F1. Maybe the ATP should not have gotten rid of the Race ranking system.

Well, it still exists. They only changed the name to "Race to London", but it's the same thing.

legolandbridge
05-14-2012, 11:37 PM
Well, it still exists. They only changed the name to "Race to London", but it's the same thing.

Right, I thought they had stopped giving that stat but I see it up on http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx. I usually look at the rankings at http://live-tennis.eu/race

156mphserve
05-14-2012, 11:52 PM
Race ranking often depends on the order of the season. Federer performed well during the indoor season towards the end of last year. If that was the first part of the year he would have been #1 for a while. If the clay season were first, then Nadal would be #1 for a while.

Early in the season the race isn't a big enough sample size to actually always look at it with lots of importance. If you look at the race, then the AO is the most important slam because it would be in the race for the longest, and the WTF is pretty much pointless because once it comes onto the race it pretty much just drops off.

Mountaindewslave
05-15-2012, 01:37 AM
I mean Nadal is a player who always works hard in the NOW, he doesn't really look back and say "I did great at that moment so it makes for now" or "I'm not doing good now but i'll do good later"...

all he cares about is preforming the best he possibly can, step by step, which is why he likes to look at the points from a race perspective. in the race he knows EXACTLY how well hes done purely from this season as opposed to getting credit or lacking credit from a previous season.

it makes sense when you consider his personality and work ethic that he prefers to look at it from his perspective.

granted he does support a dumb ass 2 year plan, but I think that is purely off a basis of fear of injury from him and he has seemed to be talking about that dumb ass idea less nowadays.

Nadal is a here and now kind of guy, we all know this

v-money
05-15-2012, 01:55 AM
I like the race ranking more as well. More accurate representation of who's actually playing well, instead of players living off old points.

v-money
05-15-2012, 01:59 AM
Fish at 53 and Roddick at 75 makes so much more sense to me than Fish at 11 and Roddick at 27

emotion
05-15-2012, 02:06 AM
He's still 3rd- which must terrify him, cuz to get #1 he definitely needs to lead after clay season. Most interesting thing in race to me is Ferrer over Murray

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 02:12 AM
He's still 3rd- which must terrify him, cuz to get #1 he definitely needs to lead after clay season. Most interesting thing in race to me is Ferrer over Murray

Why? Ferrer was #3 at this point last year. It's normal for him to collect a lot of points from Monte Carlo + minor clay events. He's actually doing worst than last year.

It's much more interesting how close to Murray Berdych and especially Del Potro are, considering these two are much more likely to earn big points in the remainder of the season, especially summer hardcourt season + indoors.

Ferrer's performance actually almost "condemns" him to finish the year 7th in the rankings at best. Murray, Berdych and Del Potro are awfully close and they're traditionally much better players on grass, summer hardcourts and indoors.

Ben.
05-15-2012, 02:16 AM
Yes, Ferrer was 3rd this time last year, up until RG I think.

The race is definitely tighter at the top this year, no one has much daylight. Could get interesting.

Yolita
05-15-2012, 02:22 AM
Race ranking often depends on the order of the season. Federer performed well during the indoor season towards the end of last year. If that was the first part of the year he would have been #1 for a while. If the clay season were first, then Nadal would be #1 for a while.

Early in the season the race isn't a big enough sample size to actually always look at it with lots of importance. If you look at the race, then the AO is the most important slam because it would be in the race for the longest, and the WTF is pretty much pointless because once it comes onto the race it pretty much just drops off.

The WTF never comes onto the race. It's the prize for finishing the race in the top 8. Tht's why it's called the Race to London or the Race to the WTF.

When you add the WTF, you don't have the race anymore, you have, pretty much, the year-end-rankings (with only Davis Cup final to be added)

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 02:27 AM
Yes, Ferrer was 3rd this time last year, up until RG I think.

The race is definitely tighter at the top this year, no one has much daylight. Could get interesting.

Indeed. It was the cushion he accumulated during the South American swing + clay masters that allowed him to finish no.5

This year, he didn't manage that cushion and nothing seems to indicate that he will have a clear lead (if any lead at all) over Delpo/Murray/Berdych after Roland Garros. So, unless Del Potro, Murray or Berdych have inexplicable poor form or injuries, Ferrer is looking at finishing the year at no.7 at best, since all three aforementioned players are clearly more likely to collect points on grass, summer hardcourts and indoor season than he is.

AntiTennis
05-15-2012, 02:32 AM
wtf? so why he wants 2 years-ranking system :confused:

Mjau!
05-15-2012, 02:52 AM
Where can one find the race rankings?

v-money
05-15-2012, 03:01 AM
Indeed. It was the cushion he accumulated during the South American swing + clay masters that allowed him to finish no.5

This year, he didn't manage that cushion and nothing seems to indicate that he will have a clear lead (if any lead at all) over Delpo/Murray/Berdych after Roland Garros. So, unless Del Potro, Murray or Berdych have inexplicable poor form or injuries, Ferrer is looking at finishing the year at no.7 at best, since all three aforementioned players are clearly more likely to collect points on grass, summer hardcourts and indoor season than he is.

I know you don't like Ferrer, and that's fine, but you should realize that he is a very capable player on hard courts. He's had some of his best results on hard courts, specifically at AO and WTF. That being said he may end up finishing the year at #7 as you say, mostly because Berdych is also very capable on clay and has a lot of points to gain in Roland Garros...I doubt he'll lose to someone like Stephanie Robert again :rolleyes:. But Ferrer and Del Potro could be pretty close for the #6 spot. Just looking at their current points Ferrer has 2645 on hard court while Del Potro has only 1870, which of course means Del Potro has less to defend and more to gain, but Ferrer can also gain some points at Cincinnati or Canada. I think it will come down to who has the better indoor stretch as Pics has a lot of points there. Tsonga will be in that mix too.

Earlier this year, in some other thread, I said that Berdych wasn't going to be the world #5 at the end of the year. I think that was a bad prediction by me. He looks more mentally poised this year and now I think that he will hold that #5 spot, but Ferrer can still be #6.

I think you should watch some more of Ferrer's matches on hard court, even though you don't like the guy. It's possible that you haven't seen him as much in recent years. He's a much different player than he used to be early in his career, like 2007 and before (2009 was also a tough year for him). But in the last few years, excluding 09, he's become a much more complete player and plays pretty aggressively, hitting plenty of winners on hard courts.

v-money
05-15-2012, 03:02 AM
Where can one find the race rankings?

http://live-tennis.eu/race

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 03:16 AM
I know you don't like Ferrer, and that's fine, but you should realize that he is a very capable player on hard courts. He's had some of his best results on hard courts, specifically at AO and WTF. That being said he may end up finishing the year at #7 as you say, mostly because Berdych is also very capable on clay and has a lot of points to gain in Roland Garros...I doubt he'll lose to someone like Stephanie Robert again :rolleyes:. But Ferrer and Del Potro could be pretty close for the #6 spot. Just looking at their current points Ferrer has 2645 on hard court while Del Potro has only 1870, which of course means Del Potro has less to defend and more to gain, but Ferrer can also gain some points at Cincinnati or Canada. I think it will come down to who has the better indoor stretch as Pics has a lot of points there. Tsonga will be in that mix too.

Earlier this year, in some other thread, I said that Berdych wasn't going to be the world #5 at the end of the year. I think that was a bad prediction by me. He looks more mentally poised this year and now I think that he will hold that #5 spot, but Ferrer can still be #6.

I think you should watch some more of Ferrer's matches on hard court, even though you don't like the guy. It's possible that you haven't seen him as much in recent years. He's a much different player than he used to be early in his career, like 2007 and before (2009 was also a tough year for him). But in the last few years, excluding 09, he's become a much more complete player and plays pretty aggressively, hitting plenty of winners on hard courts.


I'm not saying that he is a bad player on hardcourt, but Del Potro, Berdych and Murray are better - not to mention grass, with Wimbledon and the Olympics.

I disagree about Berdych finishing #5. I love Tomas, but he's awfully inconsistent and prone to unexpected defeats (like Almagro and Dimitrov in Indian Wells and Miami). I think he'll finish the year #6 (or #7 if Tsonga goes on a tear again). My pick for #5 is obviously Del Potro. He's a better player than both Berdych and Ferrer and bar any injury problems he should finish ahead of them and maybe compete with Murray for #4 - although that's probably too much to ask at this point since he will run into top 3 players one round earlier than Murray. Not only is he a better player than those two, he's also not prone to defeats against low ranked players at all. Not to mention he has only 700 points to defend from now until the end of the season.

I would be very surprised if Berdych managed to outperforme Del Potro and finish ahead of him. I'd love that to happen because Tomas is in his prime and these next 2 years are his time to add some more glitter to his career. I just can't see him being consistent enough on hardcourts and indoors to finish ahead of Juan (assuming Juan remains fit, of course). Would love to be wrong, Tomas deserves a year-end top 5 in his career. I love both players, but if I had to choose, I'd prefer Berdych to finish 2012 ahead (presumably #5) since it'd be a bigger/more meaningful achievement for him than for Juan (who has already finished a year in the top 5 and is considerably younger). But I'm afraid he won't do it.

I agree that Ferrer is better on hardcourt than he used to be. But is he better than Berdych, let alone Del Potro? No, in normal conditions, those two will rack up a lot more points than him in the grass + hardcourt seasons. To finish ahead of them, Ferrer would have had to earn a cushion in the clay season, which he hasn't done.

Tsonga is the odd man out here. He's so unpredictable. He could go on a tear on the grass season again, I suppose, he's so unpredictable.

Yolita
05-15-2012, 04:19 AM
Where can one find the race rankings?

On the ATP page:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

abraxas21
05-15-2012, 04:22 AM
btw, has anyone realized that if faker loses early and grandpa federer goes to win the tourney, then grandpa becomes world no. 1?

v-money
05-15-2012, 04:51 AM
btw, has anyone realized that if faker loses early and grandpa federer goes to win the tourney, then grandpa becomes world no. 1?

At Roland Garros?

abraxas21
05-15-2012, 05:01 AM
At Roland Garros?

no, i mean after rome. then again, i'm not sure... i just took a look at the rankings and right now less than 2000 points separate federer from djokovic. hence if djokovic loses in, say, R2 he loses 1000-10=990 points and if federer wins the tournament he wins 1000-90 = 910 points. if that's correct and it actually happens (highly unlikely anyhow), federer would surpass djokovic after rome.

can anyone confirm this?

v-money
05-15-2012, 05:03 AM
no, i mean after rome. then again, i'm not sure... i just took a look at the rankings and right now less than 2000 points separate federer from djokovic. hence if djokovic loses in, say, R2 he loses 1000-10=990 points and if federer wins the tournament he wins 1000-90 = 910 points. if that's correct and it actually happens (highly unlikely anyhow), federer would surpass djokovic after rome.

can anyone confirm this?

No, the lowest number of point Djokovic can have next week is 11290, while Federer can only get up to 10430 by winning the tournament.

v-money
05-15-2012, 05:05 AM
What you failed to account for is that the Rome points from last year have already been dropped.

abraxas21
05-15-2012, 05:10 AM
i see that djokovic's 2011 rome points have already been substracted due to the fact that rome took place a week earlier in 2011.

edit: yeah, what you said above.

TheFearlessOne
05-15-2012, 06:05 AM
Surprising to see Raonic up at #8. If he keeps that up, he could find himself in London at the end of the year.

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 09:21 AM
I don't really understand why Rafa views the race as more important than the rankings.

For the last 3 or 4 years Nadal has been the most consistent player across all the bigger tournaments (Slams + AMS). Although he has been no Federer, he has reached the SF or better in 13 of his last 16 slam appearances (only exceptions being RG 09 and AO 10 and 11), and has produced much more consistent results than everybody else in the Masters tourneys over the past I'd say at least 4 years.

Therefore barring an injury at the start of the year or a shock in Melbourne, by the time we come round to the start of the clay season, you'd imagine that Nadal would still be somewhere close to his ranking with his position in the race, with his strongest part of the season still to come. If you take a look at 2009, he had built up so many points at the start of the year, that even an early exit in RG and skipping Wimbledon caused him to eventually slip to number 3 in the race.

J99
05-15-2012, 10:47 AM
I'm not saying that he is a bad player on hardcourt, but Del Potro, Berdych and Murray are better - not to mention grass, with Wimbledon and the Olympics.

I disagree about Berdych finishing #5. I love Tomas, but he's awfully inconsistent and prone to unexpected defeats (like Almagro and Dimitrov in Indian Wells and Miami). I think he'll finish the year #6 (or #7 if Tsonga goes on a tear again). My pick for #5 is obviously Del Potro. He's a better player than both Berdych and Ferrer and bar any injury problems he should finish ahead of them and maybe compete with Murray for #4 - although that's probably too much to ask at this point since he will run into top 3 players one round earlier than Murray. Not only is he a better player than those two, he's also not prone to defeats against low ranked players at all. Not to mention he has only 700 points to defend from now until the end of the season.

I would be very surprised if Berdych managed to outperforme Del Potro and finish ahead of him. I'd love that to happen because Tomas is in his prime and these next 2 years are his time to add some more glitter to his career. I just can't see him being consistent enough on hardcourts and indoors to finish ahead of Juan (assuming Juan remains fit, of course). Would love to be wrong, Tomas deserves a year-end top 5 in his career. I love both players, but if I had to choose, I'd prefer Berdych to finish 2012 ahead (presumably #5) since it'd be a bigger/more meaningful achievement for him than for Juan (who has already finished a year in the top 5 and is considerably younger). But I'm afraid he won't do it.

I agree that Ferrer is better on hardcourt than he used to be. But is he better than Berdych, let alone Del Potro? No, in normal conditions, those two will rack up a lot more points than him in the grass + hardcourt seasons. To finish ahead of them, Ferrer would have had to earn a cushion in the clay season, which he hasn't done.

Tsonga is the odd man out here. He's so unpredictable. He could go on a tear on the grass season again, I suppose, he's so unpredictable.

Almagro is not really an unexpected defeat.

Delpo lost to Baghdatis this year.

There are still a few more clay events left after RG, where Ferrer can gain more PTS.

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 10:54 AM
Almagro is not really an unexpected defeat.

Delpo lost to Baghdatis this year.

There are still a few more clay events left after RG, where Ferrer can gain more PTS.

Almagro on hardcourts is bad a defeat for a player like Tomas.

And yes, he lost to him in the first tournament of the year. I didn't say it never happened, but he's always been far less prone to that kind of defeats against lower ranked than Tomas, who's always been a more inconsistent player capable of great things and shocking defeats.

Which clay events are you referring to? After Roland Garros, we have Queens/Halle, Wimbledon, Olympics, summer hardcourt season and indoor season. The relevant clay events will be over after Roland Garros.

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 11:00 AM
Which clay events are you referring to? After Roland Garros, we have Queens/Halle, Wimbledon, Olympics, summer hardcourt season and indoor season. The relevant clay events will be over after Roland Garros.

Ferrer usually plays in Bastad after Wimbledon, though that's only worth 250 points. If he really wants to try and capitalise post Wimbledon, he should be playing Hamburg 500 + maybe one of the other clay 250s

J99
05-15-2012, 11:01 AM
Almagro on hardcourts is bad a defeat for a player like Tomas.

And yes, he lost to him in the first tournament of the year. I didn't say it never happened, but he's always been far less prone to that kind of defeats against lower ranked than Tomas.

Which clay events are you referring to? After Roland Garros, we have Queens/Halle, Wimbledon, Olympics, summer hardcourt season and indoor season. The relevant clay events will be over after Roland Garros.

The clay events left after Wimby are, Umag, Stuttgart, Bastad, Hamburg, Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, but of course Ferrer can play only a max of 3 of them, and only one is a 500.

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 11:05 AM
Ferrer usually plays in Bastad after Wimbledon, though that's only worth 250 points. If he really wants to try and capitalise post Wimbledon, he should be playing Hamburg 500 + maybe one of the other clay 250s

But surely this year, with the Olympics, he'll not play any clay events after Wimbledon? I mean, it wouldn't make any sense as anything else than a desperate attempt to secure ranking points.

Most top players will play Wimbledon and then Olympics, with nothing (especially not a clay tournament) in between, won't they?


The clay events left after Wimby are, Umag, Stuttgart, Bastad, Hamburg, Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, but of course Ferrer can play only a max of 3 of them, and only one is a 500.

Yeah, but remember this is an Olympic year. Surely Ferrer will target that and not play clay tournaments between Wimbledon and Olympics?

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 11:10 AM
But surely this year, with the Olympics, he'll not play any clay events after Wimbledon? I mean, it wouldn't make any sense as anything else than a desperate attempt to secure ranking points.

Most top players will play Wimbledon and then Olympics, with nothing (especially not a clay tournament) in between, won't they?




Yeah, but remember this is an Olympic year. Surely Ferrer will target that and not play clay tournaments between Wimbledon and Olympics?

Given that Ferrer's best performance at Wimbledon is reaching the 4th round, he probably knows that realistically he won't win a medal. Maybe if the Olympics were on clay then he would rest up to try and make a charge for a medal rather than play the clay events post Wimbledon

Also, Ferrer has already said he will play in Bastad again this year.

J99
05-15-2012, 11:10 AM
But surely this year, with the Olympics, he'll not play any clay events after Wimbledon? I mean, it wouldn't make any sense as anything else than a desperate attempt to secure ranking points.

Most top players will play Wimbledon and then Olympics, with nothing (especially not a clay tournament) in between, won't they?




Yeah, but remember this is an Olympic year. Surely Ferrer will target that and not play clay tournaments between Wimbledon and Olympics?

The Olympics have ranking PTS right, how many is it again for the winner, 500 or 1000, because if that's the case Ferrer will have almost no chance of finishing #5 even if he picks up some more clay PTS.

Time Violation
05-15-2012, 11:12 AM
what an idiot

how can he say this while at the same time call for a 2-year ranking system? :lol: :superlol:

I don't see what's the contradiction. He follows the race to see how he is performing at the moment, while 2-years system is something that he would like to get if he could, he's certainly not going to observe 2-years race at this moment :p

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 11:12 AM
Given that Ferrer's best performance at Wimbledon is reaching the 4th round, he probably knows that realistically he won't win a medal. Maybe if the Olympics were on clay then he would rest up to try and make a charge for a medal rather than play the clay events post Wimbledon

Also, Ferrer has already said he will play in Bastad again this year.

Fair enough. It still shouldn't be enough to finish any higher than #7 if Del Potro and Berdych (and of course Murray) play anything close to their potential on grass, hardcourts and indoors, I think.


The Olympics have ranking PTS right, how many is it again for the winner, 500 or 1000, because if that's the case Ferrer will have almost no chance of finishing #5 even if he picks up some more clay PTS.

Yes, 750 pts for the winner I think.

He will not be finishing #5. He did last year because he had a huge cushion after the clay season (was actually #3 in the race).

This year he has no such cushion, only disastrous performances from two of Murray, Del Potro and Berdych could see him finish #5. All three are far more likely to collect points on grass, hard and indoors.

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 11:15 AM
Fair enough. It still shouldn't be enough to finish any higher than #7 if Del Potro and Berdych (and of course Murray) play anything close to their potential on grass, hardcourts and indoors, I think.

True. I'm not sure whether he's playing the Hamburg 500, so really he's playing for a maximum of only 250 points, which is barely anything. It seems that he just likes playing this event in Bastad.

J99
05-15-2012, 11:17 AM
Fair enough. It still shouldn't be enough to finish any higher than #7 if Del Potro and Berdych (and of course Murray) play anything close to their potential on grass, hardcourts and indoors, I think.




Yes, 750 pts for the winner I think.

He will not be finishing #5. He did last year because he had a huge cushion after the clay season (was actually #3 in the race).

This year he has no such cushion, only disastrous performances from two of Murray, Del Potro and Berdych could see him finish #5. All three are far more likely to collect points on grass, hard and indoors.

Right, he'll have a tough time finishing top 8 maybe even then, if Isner and Raonic can continue to play well, if Simon gets back to earlier form, if Tsonga can start playing well, Tips could be a factor, then Davi will finish out of the race.

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 11:23 AM
Right, he'll have a tough time finishing top 8 maybe even then.

I think he will just about make it. With Del Potro and Berdych showing solid consistency up to this point in the year (apart from Berdych losing to Dimitrov in Miami :o), you could potentially see them at numbers 5 and 6 at worst, especially with the NA hardcourts to come where Delpo usually loves playing. Tsonga had to rely on a good second half of the year to get to the WTFs last year, I'm not 100% sure whether he can repeat that.

So ATM I reckon Djoker, Fed, Rafa, Muzza, Berdych and Delpo will make it to London along with 2 others.

Chris Kuerten
05-15-2012, 11:26 AM
Two year ranking system, no?

Mark Lenders
05-15-2012, 11:28 AM
I think he will just about make it. With Del Potro and Berdych showing solid consistency up to this point in the year (apart from Berdych losing to Dimitrov in Miami :o), you could potentially see them at numbers 5 and 6 at worst, especially with the NA hardcourts to come where Delpo usually loves playing. Tsonga had to rely on a good second half of the year to get to the WTFs last year, I'm not 100% sure whether he can repeat that.

So ATM I reckon Djoker, Fed, Rafa, Muzza, Berdych and Delpo will make it to London along with 2 others.

I agree with this.

The top 3 should be set in stone, bar any injuries.

4-6 should be 4.Murray 5.Delpo 6.Berdych.

Could more easily see Delpo overtaking Murray than Berdych finishing ahead of Del Potro. But can't see either happening; even if Del Potro plays better than Murray, he will not overtake him unless Murray performs shockingly, since Del Potro will always face a top 3 player one round earlier than Murray. This year no.5 should be the most he can get.

7-8. I guess Ferrer will be in London if he performs according to his usual standards (then again, we must remember his age, it's not guaranteed). And maybe Tsonga, especially if he goes on a tear on the grass season as he's capable too. There are some other candidates for the final 2 spots though (Isner, Tipsy...).

J99
05-15-2012, 11:29 AM
I think he will just about make it. With Del Potro and Berdych showing solid consistency up to this point in the year (apart from Berdych losing to Dimitrov in Miami :o), you could potentially see them at numbers 5 and 6 at worst, especially with the NA hardcourts to come where Delpo usually loves playing. Tsonga had to rely on a good second half of the year to get to the WTFs last year, I'm not 100% sure whether he can repeat that.

So ATM I reckon Djoker, Fed, Rafa, Muzza, Berdych and Delpo will make it to London along with 2 others.

I'm not feeling so great about Muzzah right now, he's #5 and could take a fall, the guys I mentioned before who I think are/will be in the mix are Tsonga, Ferrer, Simon, Isner, Raonic and Tipsarevic.

delpiero7
05-15-2012, 11:32 AM
I'm not feeling so great about Muzzah right now, he's #5 and could take a fall, the guys I mentioned before who I think are/will be in the mix are Tsonga, Ferrer, Simon, Isner, Raonic and Tipsarevic.

Muzza should pick up enough points at Wimbledon + the NA Masters and Asian swing to make it fairly comfortably TBH.

I just have a feeling that Tsonga won't make it this year.

sportstennis
05-21-2012, 07:43 AM
ego and selfish for tow-year-ranmking. arrogant smug brat

JoWillyTso
05-21-2012, 08:55 AM
They should just scrap the rankings system and and make it the race, so whoever starts the year well is no.1 until the next tournaments where there is a change. So maybe we will see Troicki at no.1 after the Australian Open when Rafole are injured?

finishingmove
05-21-2012, 10:17 AM
rafa :facepalm:

duong
05-23-2012, 09:17 AM
Interesting thread (good one this time Ash86 :yeah: )

and interesting words from Nadal.

About the question "is it why he seems less interested in WTF ?" (I fully agree that the main reason why Nadal succeeds less there is because he doesn't feel that interested in that event and more importantly in that period of the year)

I guess it's part of the reason but only part,

because whatever the rankings, a champion like Nadal should be interested in winning a competition, shouldn't he ?

I remember the times when Nadal said that he didn't care about number 1 and only about winning tournaments.

Since this time we've actually learnt that he's very concerned about rankings and number 1, since he's spoken a lot about them in the last two years and shown that he even calculated how to reach that.

Federer seems to follow them less closely (but still follows them ;) ) , his attitude being summarized by "if you win big tournaments the rankings follow naturally" ... Nadal doesn't think exactly like that, and a good evidence of that is when he said sometimes in the past that he "absolutely needed" to play some tournaments for the rankings.

As for some points raised by some people comparing this year and last' year's Race after Roma, here's what I've got for the top-players :

Ranked according to the Race 2012 :

Race 2012 Compar 2011 2012-2011 after Roma
Djokovic 4 920 6 750 -1830
Nadal 4 750 4 500 +250
Federer 4 225 2 620 +1605
Ferrer 2 590 2 815 -225
Berdych 2 325 1 525 +800
Murray 2 240 2 030 +210
Del Potro 2 185 1 375 +810
Tsonga 1 475 760 +715
Almagro 1 405 1 530 -125
Tipsarevic 1 340 555 +785
Simon 1 305 920 +385
Isner 1 290 380 +910
Raonic 1 265 1 087 +178
Verdasco 1 075 640 +435
Monaco 1 075 440 +635
Gasquet 925 1 110 -185
Wawrinka 910 1 080 -170
Kohlschreiber 835 475 +360
Melzer 802 835 -33
Nishikori 790 485 +305
Seppi 765 220 +545
Dolgopolov 675 920 -245
Anderson 675 715 -40
Andujar 660 400 +260
Ramos 610 167 +443
Nieminen 592 311 +281
Youzhny 585 365 +220
Monfils 570 405 +165
Nalbandian 570 300 +270
F Lopez 565 630 -65

Ranked according to the Race 2011 :

Race 2011 compar 2012 2012-2011 after Roma
Djokovic 6 750 4 920 -1830
Nadal 4 500 4 750 +250
Ferrer 2 815 2 590 -225
Federer 2 620 4 225 +1605
Murray 2 030 2 240 +210
Söderling 1 715 0 -1715
Almagro 1 530 1 405 -125
Berdych 1 525 2 325 +800
Del Potro 1 375 2 185 +810
Gasquet 1 110 925 -185
Raonic 1 087 1 265 +178
Wawrinka 1 080 910 -170
Roddick 1 030 270 -760
Cilic 960 415 -545
Troicki 960 430 -530
Simon 920 1 305 +385
Dolgopolov 920 675 -245
F Mayer 880 240 -640
Fish 850 355 -495
Bellucci 840 365 -475
Melzer 835 802 -33
Robredo 830 0 -830
Tsonga 760 1 475 +715
Anderson 715 675 -40
Verdasco 640 1 075 +435
F Lopez 630 565 -65
Dodig 630 250 -380
Davydenko 565 355 -210
Giraldo 565 528 -37
Tipsarevic 555 1 340 +785

As some others said, I think the most important points are that Federer is higher but also Berdych and Del Potro are higher. They are a small group with Ferrer and Murray which is new this year. Last year Söderling was there but was not that high.

Ferrer is high, as he was last year already yes it's true, but he's still very high and as some others said he can play on hardcourts (after all, the main reason why he was better last year was his SF in the Australian Open ;) ).

May also be interesting for some to know that Almagro didn't have that many points on clay this year but made good results on hardcourts ;) (R16 in AO -Berdych needed to win 3 tie-breaks to beat him- and Miami and QF in Indian Wells - he didn't play any QF in clay MS1000 tournaments).

Tsonga is also higher than last year at this point, he made a great second part of the year last year.

Murray was already far from the top-3 and together with the "followers" last year, then he can come back of course, but still it's disappointing : last year he made some great results in the second part of the year to come back. Also worrying for him is that last year he made a better clay season and finished very well in Roma, which looked better for the next big events.

Overall I think the players behind top-4 are better this year than last year while the top-4 look a little bit fragile to me (esp. Djokovic ; and Federer has physical concerns and Murray had a bad clay season not as he finished last year, Nadal looks more solid but not THAT good and also had several physical concerns in the end of last year and the beginning of this year) then I would not be surprised that there are more upsets than last year in next slams and Olympics ;) ... and I would be even less surprised in Canada Open and Cinci ;)

Raonic is quite like last year : last year the catastrophe for him was the injury in summer, now what's crucial for him is that he avoids it.

Tipsarevic and Isner confirmed their good second part of the year last year.

Simon is well-positioned and says he feels much better this year than last year : I really hope Fed doesn't draw him :scared:

Monfils made a bad first part of the year ... pretty much like every year unfortunately for him :rolleyes:

Together with Söderling, Fish and Roddick have pretty much disappeared, even though they may have a better second part of the year, esp. in American tournaments when other players feel tired (Fish made a good choice for the US Open series, playing Washington rather than the Olympics).

Other players who have done more badly because of injuries but came back better recently for the key-period : Cilic and Flo Mayer.

Troicki has been less good, hard to understand why ? Also disappointing was Bellucci, esp. after his win against Ferrer in Monte-Carlo.