Federer : The Mother Of All Quests : 20 Slams And 100 Titles. [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Federer : The Mother Of All Quests : 20 Slams And 100 Titles.

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Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:23 PM
this will become the mother of all sports quests in modern sports. it will be known going forward simply as "The Quest".

can he snatch a total of 100 titles before he hangs up his racquets? is that a viable goal for him to have?

and also what about 20 slams now that 17 are in the bag?


i know he wants slams but slams dont come easy after 30. he will be one of the exceptions obviously if it happens. where do you see his best chance at another slam? could it be on the u.s. open surface?

somebody won a french open at 31 for instance? what was his name? that is your question of the day. here is a hint: he was 6 foot 5 and he was a left hander.

muscles (rosewall) was making the finals of slams at some ridiculous old age. so if you have the talent and you can keep up on the fitness front you can certainly show up in the finals of slams.

xdrewitdajx
02-19-2012, 02:26 PM
uh...

sexybeast
02-19-2012, 02:27 PM
90 at absolute best and that is one hell of a stretch.

samanosuke
02-19-2012, 02:28 PM
:facepalm:

rubbERR
02-19-2012, 02:28 PM
Only if they put all tournaments indoors.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:30 PM
i say over 100. i can see it happening.

he is constantly upgrading his fitness and he still has major game.

BauerAlmeida
02-19-2012, 02:33 PM
Mmmm, I think he'll get to 84/85.

samanosuke
02-19-2012, 02:36 PM
so 30 years old tennis player needs to win almost a half of titles more that he won in last 12 years of carrier in time when surface becoming slower and slower and tennis more and more physically harder . pretty obvious this will happen

MaxPower
02-19-2012, 02:37 PM
i say over 100. i can see it happening.

he is constantly upgrading his fitness and he still has major game.

Question: You know how many titles he won last year right? You know he needs 29 more to hit 100? Winning that many over a full career is a very hard task. Winning 30 after 30? Just retarded

Some mod should probably drag this thread outside. I saw an Elephant with stomach problems

manadrainer
02-19-2012, 02:39 PM
I don't think so. He wins mostly indoors nowadays. 29 more titles seems a lot to me...

Kat_YYZ
02-19-2012, 02:39 PM
If he does I will change my user name to Clay Death Rules :dance:

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:39 PM
he has to specialize. it is simple. he will rack them up on indoor hard courts and other hard courts. some grass titles are also in the mix.

he is not the average hapless ejaculite we usually see at the asylum.

he is more focused and more driven now that the time is of the essence. i think we are seeing the results.

Orka_n
02-19-2012, 02:40 PM
No.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:42 PM
come off it folks. the big idea of this thread is to exlpore that very possibility.

its ok if you dont think he will hit 100 titles. your input is still important. that is what makes and also advances this discussion.


also where did i say they all have to be singles titles?

luie
02-19-2012, 02:42 PM
Nah. If it was like the 60s/70s with alot of fast indoor surfaces even PRO SLAMS then maybe.
Today highly unlikely, 80 something likely though.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:44 PM
luie he will probably play until he is 37.

Roamed
02-19-2012, 02:46 PM
He'll finish at 80 in my opinion. That's still 9 more which is a lot, requires him to do as well as last year for two and a half more years.

EddieNero
02-19-2012, 02:46 PM
Fed can coast to 80 titles If he keeps it up indoors and grabs some outdoor titles when Djokovic/Nadal fail to reach late stages of the tournaments.
I definitely can't see him breaking 90 titles.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 02:48 PM
so we are at 90 already.

anybody for 100?

stanch
02-19-2012, 02:48 PM
Oh c'mon, 80 titles would be a massive accomplishment.

Mystique
02-19-2012, 02:50 PM
80-85. At best. Even that is a stretch.

MaxPower
02-19-2012, 02:50 PM
also where did i say they all have to be singles titles?

Then you are onto something. A player with Feds serve and volley skills could easily be competitive in doubles up to 40 and with his reputation he could basically pick partner.

But personally don't think Federer will go for doubles. Probably will retire, settle down with the family. All the travel won't work when the twins start school and he probably don't want to sacrifice family just to grind doubles titles. Money is not a factor for him.

xdrewitdajx
02-19-2012, 02:53 PM
come off it folks. the big idea of this thread is to exlpore that very possibility.

its ok if you dont think he will hit 100 titles. your input is still important. that is what makes and also advances this discussion.


also where did i say they all have to be singles titles?

oh, right, it's perfectly logical to assume you were talking 100 total titles, not just singles titles.

he must be close, we're counting exhibitions and juniors titles as well, right?

Chirag
02-19-2012, 02:54 PM
I say 80 .85 will be a stretch really .The sport is becoming more and more tougher with the slow surfaces

samanosuke
02-19-2012, 02:57 PM
Reading this thread Fed will change the schedule for next year .

He'll skip this year's WTF to carry momentum in 2013 . 2013 he'll start in Chennai, then he'll play Sydney, then he'll take two weeks off for peaking for Zagreb , after Zagreb he'll make short trip to San Jose, then he'll try his luck in Memphis and peak for Delray Beach, then he'll take 3 weeks off to make some changes in game for clay courts of Houston, next is Bucharest, if Nole doesn't play he'll try to become a king of Belgrade to outmentals Nole, after two weeks of peaking the biggest goal of his clay court season will arrive in Nice, again two weeks off and one silly attempt of winning the Halle, then again after short recovery peak of his grass court season in Newport and then when he is already in US he'll try himself in Atlanta, Los Angeles and Winston Salem, again some rest for peaking for the biggest goal of season trying to take Bangkok from Garcia Lopez and for the end of season to satisfy his eastern european fans he'll give all to win Moscow . And final reward will be closing the gap to 100 titles

Roamed
02-19-2012, 02:57 PM
If he ends up at 80, it could be something like this:

72nd at a slam
73rd, 74th, 75th at Masters - maybe Cincy, one of IW/Miami some time in the next two years, an indoors one like Paris or Shanghai
76th, 77th at Basel, and Basel or another random 500
78th, 79th, 80th at Halle, Doha and some other 250

Looner
02-19-2012, 03:04 PM
Depends how long he'll play for and whether Nadull and Djokovic can sustain their level at all the major tournaments (GS + 1000s).

abraxas21
02-19-2012, 03:06 PM
no

80-82 is more likely

masterclass
02-19-2012, 03:09 PM
If he ends up at 80, it could be something like this:

72nd at a slam
73rd, 74th, 75th at Masters - maybe Cincy, one of IW/Miami some time in the next two years, an indoors one like Paris or Shanghai
76th, 77th at Basel, and Basel or another random 500
78th, 79th, 80th at Halle, Doha and some other 250

Not a bad prediction. IW or Miami would be tough unless they speed up playing conditions there or something happens to Djokovic/Nadal.

In fact, that may be Mr. Federer's one chance to reach 100 single's titles and a few more slams. He would have to hope that he plays on without too much further decline, and that Nadal, Djokovic and possibly Murray don't make it for one reason or another. Their style of play is aging (in terms of mileage/injury) them faster than Mr. Federer. IF those guys are out of the way I could see him winning majors and more titles, even #1 when he is 34, 35, given the current crop of younger men. Of course, if one or two of the younger men steps it up, then it would be extremely difficult.

Respectfully,
masterclass

heya
02-19-2012, 03:15 PM
lol blind fans claim he declined at age 27.

zoparrat
02-19-2012, 03:23 PM
If it was his only goal in life and he switched to playing 250's with weaker fields there's a chance he could do it in 5 years. So there's no way he's doing it.

SERBINATOR
02-19-2012, 03:47 PM
Fed is turning 31 this August...in other words he will now NOT be bound by any ATP rules regulation regarding Compulsory Tournaments to be played

So i think he will use that to his advantage to skip MS and smaller tourny for GS's

so realistically speaking 80-82

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 03:50 PM
31 is nothing for Fed.

i just revised my estimate of how long he will play:

he plays and competes until he is 40.

bouncer7
02-19-2012, 03:59 PM
he can reach number 100, why not? just need to play these american events aka challengers like Sah Jose, Memphis, Atlanta, La, Washington,Win Salem, Newport, etc,... he could easily achieve it in 3-4 years

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 04:02 PM
if he snags another 5-6 titles this year, that makes 77 already.

now we are talking just 23 for the next 6 years. do the math.

and he is likely to play until he is 40.

bouncer7
02-19-2012, 04:04 PM
31 is nothing for Fed.

i just revised my estimate of how long he will play:

he plays and competes until he is 40.

of course, he made a deal with satan himself (NIKE), and he will be playing untill they say its enough :wavey:

pray-for-palestine-and-israel
02-19-2012, 04:07 PM
if he plays to 35 then its....... possible

for sure he can win a handfull of 250s every year
maybe a 500 a year
couple of WTF left in him
(hopefully) a slam
and maybe a couple of masters

thats maybe 20 titles- so 90 is a stretch- well either way its possible but i doubt it

but to be able to do it says alot about his amazing consistency

probably says a hell lot more about how legendary connors, lendl, mac, rosewall and laver were

GSMnadal
02-19-2012, 04:13 PM
He should feast on upcoming youngsters in the 250 category, maybe even add some challengers later on. Just to make sure they all lose hope before they reach the top, and therefore become a threat to RF's GOAT status.

He should do this until he's about 40-45.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 04:27 PM
he is great for the sport. i can see him playing until he is 40.

fsoica
02-19-2012, 04:37 PM
is this the best jinx attempt ever or what?

Roger the Dodger
02-19-2012, 04:41 PM
he is great for the sport. i can see him playing until he is 40.

is this the best jinx attempt ever or what?

Think, Einstein think!

Arkulari
02-19-2012, 04:43 PM
I doubt this will happen and I'd rather see him winning another GS than 20 more 250-500 tournaments ;)

bouncer7
02-19-2012, 04:51 PM
I doubt this will happen and I'd rather see him winning another GS than 20 more 250-500 tournaments ;) winning atp 250 means 4 matches in 7 days and at least big effort in possible final with Troicki, Cilic or Verdasco. He could win 20 of these in a one single year, but why doing this cuase he can easily be no.3 with 2 or 3 titles

Slice Winner
02-19-2012, 04:52 PM
he has to specialize. it is simple. he will rack them up on indoor hard courts and other hard courts. some grass titles are also in the mix.

he is not the average hapless ejaculite we usually see at the asylum.

he is more focused and more driven now that the time is of the essence. i think we are seeing the results.

This is one of the best uses of the English language I have ever seen. :lol:

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 05:02 PM
is this the best jinx attempt ever or what?

you folks are truly negative. this is an honest thread.

i suggest you come up with an honest chat.

not everybody is a hapless, legless, toothless, spineless, gutless, and eyeless ejaculite from the lost world of Ejacustan.

some of us actually know our tennis.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 05:04 PM
This is one of the best uses of the English language I have ever seen. :lol:

stay tuned. there is more to come.

Arkulari
02-19-2012, 05:04 PM
winning atp 250 means 4 matches in 7 days and at least big effort in possible final with Troicki, Cilic or Verdasco. He could win 20 of these in a one single year, but why doing this cuase he can easily be no.3 with 2 or 3 titles

At this point, it's not about the ranking. :cool:

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 05:10 PM
actually it is also about the ranking for him: he has said this many times and he said it again last week. he said he would like to be #1 again.

so winning titles--large and small--will get him to where he wants to go. not saying he will get there definitely but that is his thinking anyway.

he is working hard on his fitness and his game. there is a reason for that.

Orka_n
02-19-2012, 05:23 PM
if he snags another 5-6 titles this year, that makes 77 already.

now we are talking just 23 for the next 6 years. do the math.

and he is likely to play until he is 40.:haha: Federer might play until 34 at the absolute most.

pray-for-palestine-and-israel
02-19-2012, 05:33 PM
last 4 years

2008 4 titles
2009 4 titles
2010 5 titles
2011 4 titles

to get to 100 (if he remained as good as his 2010 form, which he wont obviously)

he would need to play for 7 more years

so no- he wont win 100 titles unless he goes after the glory and plays alot of 250 and 500 events untill he retires

i think realistically we are looking for an 80ish number for his title count- and as others have mentioned it really doesn't matter at the end of the day- he's never catching connors laver and lendl

buzz
02-19-2012, 05:40 PM
In order to get 100 he has to start winning around 10 titles a year or keep playing at top8 level until he is about 40years. Both aren't likely at all.

DemiCrayanhan
02-19-2012, 05:41 PM
:haha: Federer might play until 34 at the absolute most.

i don't think it'll last that long to be honest.
it's understandable for a champion of his caliber to live in a reality distortion field in the twilight of his career. which is what this dream of getting no1 back is. but the thing is you can only go as far as you dream. give him another year or two of making only as far as semis at majors and mirka will plan his retirement bash. that is unless he wins wimby and olympics this year, and he will plan the bash himself right then and there on his beloved grass.

exhos till his legs give in will keep him rich for as long as he lives.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 05:45 PM
he is already worth well over $300 mill. and some of his endorsement income is for life.

he is not playing for money anymore. he will have accumulated over a billion anyway when its all over. even if he stops playing today he reaches that mark in the next 20 years.

money makes money. lot of money makes a ton of money.

Orka_n
02-19-2012, 05:50 PM
Also, it's assassin.

Clay Death
02-19-2012, 05:57 PM
stay on the subject and it would be considered wise to try to restrain your mindless propensity to pick holes in people. it is always the right thing to do.

when did i ever say or claim that i can spell or that english was my first language? it is not even my 4th language. is it not obvious that my english is no good?

sexybeast
02-19-2012, 06:15 PM
Depends how long he'll play for and whether Nadull and Djokovic can sustain their level at all the major tournaments (GS + 1000s).

That is one important point, imagine Federer att 33 playing without Djokovic and Nadal beeing around and Tomic as nr1, going to Indian Wells and play some journeyman in the SF/final, that was very often the case in the "normal eras", going to Australia and maybe have someone like Berdych in the final and in Wimbledon Tomic and so on.

Last year he lost to Djokovic or Nadal in SF/F 7 times, he won 4 titles. Without Nadal and Djokovic he could probably go back to win 7-8 titles every year if he stays at the same fitness level as now.

spencercarlos
02-19-2012, 06:17 PM
so 30 years old tennis player needs to win almost a half of titles more that he won in last 12 years of carrier in time when surface becoming slower and slower and tennis more and more physically harder . pretty obvious this will happen
Of course. Since this is not a reachable goal this Nadal stan thinks he is having fun. :rolleyes:

sexybeast
02-19-2012, 06:25 PM
you folks are truly negative. this is an honest thread.

i suggest you come up with an honest chat.

not everybody is a hapless, legless, toothless, spineless, gutless, and eyeless ejaculite from the lost world of Ejacustan.

some of us actually know our tennis.

We are just beeing cynical Clay Death, we have been around long enought to not believe extrordinary things can happen in our lifetime, the childish enthusiasm for tennis isnt there anymore. Thank you for beeing you and dreaming wild and big like a child in this wasteland. :worship:

heya
02-19-2012, 06:41 PM
lol fedfannutsos can't fathom why djoker can play for a decade.
it's called all-surface talent without excuses (djoker's family's faces, imaginary bad injury or illness, 'lucky shots', cold weather and shadows scaring poor feddy).

sexybeast
02-19-2012, 06:49 PM
Anyway, lets take this claim from CD seriously while we are writting in his thread, lets make a roadmap to 100 titles:

29 more to go, what is required from Federer and development in tennis for this to be possible?

1-Longevity like the old days. Is it possible Federer can be another Rosewall or Connors? Or atleast a Laver or Agassi? Does he have it in him to be competitive far into his 30s? I say it is possible, he needs to play until 38 I think if he wants a chanse to get 100 titles.

2-End of super top 4 era, sometime soon Djokovic, Nadal and Murray needs to stop beeing in every SF and F in not only slams but every master series aswell, Nadal must be close to reaching that slippery slope and will fall rather fast outside clay. What if 2013 marks the end of the 6-year reign of top 4s and Nadal is out of the picture, Djokovic not in every final and so on? Federer can go back winning Indian Wells or Miami, probably always be favorite in Cincinatti. Maybe he can win 2 master series per year, add 3 smaller tournaments and atleast 1 slam/TMC and you got 6 tournaments per year.

3-play the smaller tournaments and take the seriously, positive signs when he plays Rotterdam again, how about if Federer goes on to play some small clay tournament like Estoril every year instead of the impossible Monte Carlo?
Dont skip Halle aswell, Federer should play 5 small tournaments every year and maybe skip 2 master series every year instead. He would need 3 every year atleast until 2015.

So, this is my roadmap to 100 in honor of CD:

2012-5 more titles: Halle and Basel are in the bag, Olympics on grass and lets say 2 of these: indoor master series/Cincinatti/Usopen/Wimbledon/TMC

2013 (Djokovic and Nadal take 2 steps down from their peak):3 small tournaments, 2 master series and 1 big one. 6 tournaments.

2014(End of Djokovic era, he is physically drain and Nadal limited to clay): 3 small tournaments, 1-2 master series and grand slam+TMC. 6 tournament wins.

2015-2-3 small tournaments 1 master series, 0-1 slam/TMC, 4 titles

Now that puts Federer at 92 when he is 34 years old, he can get to 100 by having some out of the ordinary long career, and go down his latest years 2016-2019 to 2-3 tournaments per year.

Well, one hell of a stretch of the imagination to see this happen. I give CD 1 in 40 odds to be right.

Johnny Groove
02-19-2012, 07:01 PM
80+ titles in this era is beyond impressive.

If he can get to 100? Damn.

Poirot123
02-19-2012, 07:10 PM
actually it is also about the ranking for him: he has said this many times and he said it again last week. he said he would like to be #1 again.

so winning titles--large and small--will get him to where he wants to go. not saying he will get there definitely but that is his thinking anyway.

he is working hard on his fitness and his game. there is a reason for that.

It's my belief that it Federer's fitness that is letting him down in the big matches in the grand slams (alongside the Nadal match up issue). Take the Djokovic match in the US Open in 2011. Federer played out of his mind putting everything into the first 2 sets, a level of play he has to reach to beat Djokovic. But he took his foot off the pedal in sets 3 and 4, and Djokovic came back into the match, as Federer stopped moving as well. Then it was noticeable how Federer upped his level in the 5th set, working much harder to retrieve balls to stay in points. He should've won the match. But that's my point. His fitness is not good enough to compete against Djokovic or Nadal at the required level over 5 sets on slow courts. In fact Federer in al likelihood would struggle against Murray on slow courts as well over 5 sets (barring a Murray choke). Had Federer beaten Djokovic in 2011 US Open semi-final then I am certain Nadal would've beaten him in the final as that centre court looked very slow, and Federer just would not have been able to hang tough in the long rallies, something that is critical in beating Nadal as Djokovic has shown again and again.

As for winning 100 titles? All down to whether Federer wants too. As others have said, he could quite easily just play 20 ATP250 events every year and win them all for the next 5 years as the opposition just is nowhere good enough to beat him bar whomever reaches the final. But Federer won't, as he wants the big titles. The ones which are hard to win. They define greatness. The slams.

Poirot123
02-19-2012, 07:12 PM
:haha: Federer might play until 34 at the absolute most.

I think Fed's limit will be 2016 Olympics. He is on the record as saying he wanted to play at a high level long enough so his twins could watch and remember watching him play at that level. So a few more years yet.

samanosuke
02-19-2012, 07:24 PM
Fed will retire this year in Basel

heya
02-19-2012, 07:29 PM
this is not 2005 anymore. no blake and roddick in slams;
then again, blake beat federer at the olympics (almost apologetic about his hero's "bad day").

Orka_n
02-19-2012, 08:21 PM
stay on the subject and it would be considered wise to try to restrain your mindless propensity to pick holes in people. it is always the right thing to do.

when did i ever say or claim that i can spell or that english was my first language? it is not even my 4th language. is it not obvious that my english is no good?affermative old :sport:

a better title to this thread would be "The King of 100 Languages: Clay Death the Destroyer"

the floor is yours. do you think can he reach 100? I believe he can.

He only has around 29 languages left to learn to reach that goal and he can learn new ones even after he's 40 - as a matter of fact he can keep studying until he dies.

it has been proven time after time that nothing is impossible for the mighty Hercules of the Castle.

hapless, legless, worthless, spineless, useless sewer rats have no say in this thread.

we are keeping it positive here and these ejaculites are simply terrible in the field of linguistics

100 is there for the taking.

Vamos, I say. Vamos.

mark73
02-19-2012, 09:04 PM
Federer will win Newport every year until he is 60.

DemiCrayanhan
02-19-2012, 09:55 PM
Federer will win Newport every year until he is 60.

excellent plan. except make that 70 and jimmy's record is broken for sure. and he'll fit right in with the newport crowd. allez!

nole_no1
02-19-2012, 10:23 PM
No way. He'll be somewhere around 82-85 (which it would be pretty impressive tbh)

stewietennis
02-20-2012, 12:07 AM
I don't think Federer is the type to enter mickey mouse tournaments just to pad his numbers. I'm thinking in the 80-85 range.

Kat_YYZ
02-20-2012, 04:14 AM
I think Fed's limit will be 2016 Olympics. He is on the record as saying he wanted to play at a high level long enough so his twins could watch and remember watching him play at that level. So a few more years yet.

Yep I think that's a good assessment. He has said that he wants more kids. In the twins' first year he said in a few interviews (quite proudly) that he was hardly away from them for more than a day (even though they're too young to remember that). He noted that when they start school the girls will have to stop travelling with him everywhere. And it seems he doesn't want to be an absentee dad. So put all that together and I think another 4 years is the max. He could go into a sort of 'part-time' mode after that; playing only slams and a few favourite tournaments. But what will that do for his form, if he only plays 7 or 8 tournaments per year?

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 04:19 AM
Anyway, lets take this claim from CD seriously while we are writting in his thread, lets make a roadmap to 100 titles:

29 more to go, what is required from Federer and development in tennis for this to be possible?

1-Longevity like the old days. Is it possible Federer can be another Rosewall or Connors? Or atleast a Laver or Agassi? Does he have it in him to be competitive far into his 30s? I say it is possible, he needs to play until 38 I think if he wants a chanse to get 100 titles.

2-End of super top 4 era, sometime soon Djokovic, Nadal and Murray needs to stop beeing in every SF and F in not only slams but every master series aswell, Nadal must be close to reaching that slippery slope and will fall rather fast outside clay. What if 2013 marks the end of the 6-year reign of top 4s and Nadal is out of the picture, Djokovic not in every final and so on? Federer can go back winning Indian Wells or Miami, probably always be favorite in Cincinatti. Maybe he can win 2 master series per year, add 3 smaller tournaments and atleast 1 slam/TMC and you got 6 tournaments per year.

3-play the smaller tournaments and take the seriously, positive signs when he plays Rotterdam again, how about if Federer goes on to play some small clay tournament like Estoril every year instead of the impossible Monte Carlo?
Dont skip Halle aswell, Federer should play 5 small tournaments every year and maybe skip 2 master series every year instead. He would need 3 every year atleast until 2015.

So, this is my roadmap to 100 in honor of CD:

2012-5 more titles: Halle and Basel are in the bag, Olympics on grass and lets say 2 of these: indoor master series/Cincinatti/Usopen/Wimbledon/TMC

2013 (Djokovic and Nadal take 2 steps down from their peak):3 small tournaments, 2 master series and 1 big one. 6 tournaments.

2014(End of Djokovic era, he is physically drain and Nadal limited to clay): 3 small tournaments, 1-2 master series and grand slam+TMC. 6 tournament wins.

2015-2-3 small tournaments 1 master series, 0-1 slam/TMC, 4 titles

Now that puts Federer at 92 when he is 34 years old, he can get to 100 by having some out of the ordinary long career, and go down his latest years 2016-2019 to 2-3 tournaments per year.

Well, one hell of a stretch of the imagination to see this happen. I give CD 1 in 40 odds to be right.


i never said he is going to most definitely do this. i only started the thread to explore that possibility.

that said, if anybody can do then he is one of those who could pull it off. he will have to play a long time obviously.

he plays the game so easily anyway. i believe he will at least play until he is 36-37. he may even surprise us all by playing until he is 40.

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 06:47 AM
folks nothing stands still except for nadal. now here is a blundering buffoon who has not bothered to improve in 2 years but that is a subject for another day.

fed is going to make some adjustments down the road. perhaps he will have a even bigger serve. he might play more doubles so as to become even more effective at the net than he already is. and of course he will use all his experience out there.

Sophocles
02-20-2012, 10:59 AM
Even reaching McEnroe's 77 is far from guaranteed, though more likely than not at this stage. I can't see a 40-year-old, even one with Federer's talent, competing at the highest level in the modern game, with strings & surfaces as they are, & I can't see Federer continuing on the tour without being able to compete at the highest level, so somewhere in the mid-80s is optimistic but doable. 100 - no, he won't play long enough.

2003
02-20-2012, 11:06 AM
Hed have a fair chance, except I think the clay titles are now out of reach. Hes too old for the dirt now, Djokovic and Nadal will be realing those in.

If the grass and indoor season was longer, he may almost have been there by now.

Id give Nadal a greater chance of getting to 17 slams then Fed to 100 titles.

BUT, in saying that, I think Federer would trade 100 titles for 18 slams in a heartbeat.

reery
02-20-2012, 11:19 AM
Hed have a fair chance, except I think the clay titles are now out of reach. Hes too old for the dirt now, Djokovic and Nadal will be realing those in.

If the grass and indoor season was longer, he may almost have been there by now.

Id give Nadal a greater chance of getting to 17 slams then Fed to 100 titles.

BUT, in saying that, I think Federer would trade 100 titles for 18 slams in a heartbeat.

18 slams for Federer is more likely than 100 titles, obviously.

Imperfect Angel
02-20-2012, 12:38 PM
He can still win the MMs where Nadal/Djokovic doesn't play.:oh:

masterclass
02-20-2012, 01:40 PM
Even reaching McEnroe's 77 is far from guaranteed, though more likely than not at this stage. I can't see a 40-year-old, even one with Federer's talent, competing at the highest level in the modern game, with strings & surfaces as they are, & I can't see Federer continuing on the tour without being able to compete at the highest level, so somewhere in the mid-80s is optimistic but doable. 100 - no, he won't play long enough.

I too think 100 unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility, especially if he doesn't have to play to 40 to do it.
His overall capability to win titles depends on the level of competition against him compared to his own level.

IF the players at or above his level like Nadal and Djokovic were not to hold up for one reason or another, or decline faster than Federer, the equation changes. I think one would have to agree that the Nadal and Djokovic style of play and propensity for injury is not conducive to career longevity, especially relative to Federer.

So in a scenario where Mr. Nadal and/or Mr. Djokovic end their careers in the next 2-4 years for whatever reason or where their level drops precipitously, then Mr. Federer could outlast them and simply be the best for lack of quality competition at the top.

I think most would agree that the current crop of youngsters in the top 100 (age 19-23) are few and do not play anywhere near the level needed to challenge the top players. Of course, that may change. But if not, then I think Federer has a chance to approach 100 as long as he has the desire to keep playing. He has a family, so it will be also a family decision.

With current competition, let's generously give him 5 titles per year in the next 2 years. That's 10.
Let's say a combination of injuries and/or achievements see Mr. Nadal retire after those 2 years. That leaves Mr. Djokovic (assuming Murray can't raise his level). Due to Nadal's retirement we might up Federer to 6 titles per year for 2 years, that's now a total of 22, which is a overall total of 92 at the age of 34. If Djokovic also retires... then 100 doesn't look so far away.

But this is all conjecture. It assumes that Federer remains healthy, his level doesn't drop much more, his desire to play remains the same and that the other top players leave the scene before he does, and no younger players are good enough to reach his level. That's a lot of assumption...;)

Respectfully,
masterclass

ApproachShot
02-20-2012, 01:50 PM
I think 80 would be a huge accomplishment. My best guess would put his final figure at about 78.

Sophocles
02-20-2012, 01:52 PM
But this is all conjecture. It assumes that Federer remains healthy, his level doesn't drop much more, his desire to play remains the same and that the other top players leave the scene before he does, and no younger players are good enough to reach his level. That's a lot of assumption...;)

Precisely. Most great players decline precipitously in their early thirties. Agassi & Connors are the only exceptions in the Open Era - well, unless you go right back to Laver & Rosewall.

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 01:55 PM
Hed have a fair chance, except I think the clay titles are now out of reach. Hes too old for the dirt now, Djokovic and Nadal will be realing those in.

If the grass and indoor season was longer, he may almost have been there by now.

Id give Nadal a greater chance of getting to 17 slams then Fed to 100 titles.

BUT, in saying that, I think Federer would trade 100 titles for 18 slams in a heartbeat.


excellent discussion by everybody so far.

keep up the good work.

sexybeast
02-20-2012, 02:05 PM
I give Federer 1/200 to go after Connors record.

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 02:35 PM
what is the record for connors sexybeast? also how many singles titles did lendl snatch?

i know johnnny mac has 77 singles and 77 doubles. that is a true immortal for you right there as far as tennis ic concerned.

hiperborejac
02-20-2012, 02:45 PM
Fed is still thinking about slams and other big tournaments. At this pace of winning titles (4-5 by year) he'll need to play for next 8-9 year (till his 40) but I highly doubt he'll be able to keep his current level of play longer then 2-3 years. These smaller tournaments he's playing serves him only to regain trust and bust confidence in his own game. So he'll play 2-3 small tournaments for next 2-3 years (250 and 500s) and focus on big ones. Anyway that doesn't mean that he'll win every one of them. I give him 3-4 titles in next 3 years, after that we'll be lucky to see him win 2 titles per year till his end of career which give us 85-90 titles if he's to play till 40.

masterclass
02-20-2012, 03:10 PM
Precisely. Most great players decline precipitously in their early thirties. Agassi & Connors are the only exceptions in the Open Era - well, unless you go right back to Laver & Rosewall.

So what's the common link to play declining gracefully or little, and not precipitously?

I think the players who generally lasted longest are recognized as having outstanding footwork and desire to keep competing, along with the ability to stay relatively healthy.

Arthur Ashe rated Ken Rosewall and Richard "Pancho" Gonzales as having the best footwork in his day.
Ken Rosewall won his last title at the age of 43 in 1977. 3 weeks earlier he lost in the finals of the Sydney Indoors to Jimmy Connors.

Richard Gonzales: Tony Trabert, who disliked Gonzales intensely, still had this to say about him: "Gonzales is the greatest natural athlete tennis has ever known. The way he can move that 6-foot-2-inch frame of his around the court is almost unbelievable. He's just like a big cat...". Gonzales won his last title 3 months short of 44 years old in 1972.

Jimmy Connors' footwork and setup preparation are one of the greatest all time.
He won his last two tournaments at the age of 37, and went to the semifinal in the US Open at age 39.

Bjorn Borg Borg had outstanding footwork and speed and was one of the smoothest players ever to run on the court. But he didn't have the desire to continue playing beyond the age of 26. I include him here as perhaps the best example of someone with superb footwork and athletic ability who did not have longevity due to lack of desire to compete further. One needs both.

Andre Agassi Great footwork and preparation (similar to Connors), even though he didn't have the best speed. Won his last slam about 3 months short of his 33rd birthday (record still stands) and won his last tournament at age 35.

*Roger Federer is acknowledged as having one of the finest, most graceful (most efficient with little effort) footwork ever.
In my opinion, he is most similar to Mr. Gonzales in that respect.
Approaching age 31, after winning Rotterdam 2012, he stated he has the desire to compete several more years.

*Still active

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 03:18 PM
excellent post masterclass.

there is no doubt in my mind that Fed will still be playing and competing for the next 7 years. and as i have suggested, he has the kind of efficient game and this amazing ability to manage his fitness and his health that he may even play until he is 40.

again, people are not taking this one little fact into account:

nothing stands still. he will make changes in his game and he will compensate for the older age and diminished movement.


i am not saying he is winning slams but if he loves tennis like he does then he can stay in the top 10 and keep snatching small titles for as long as he is driven to do so. he has the ability.

Smiling Buddha
02-20-2012, 04:01 PM
He will win a hundred titles in 2012 alone.

masterclass
02-20-2012, 04:13 PM
excellent post masterclass.

there is no doubt in my mind that Fed will still be playing and competing for the next 7 years. and as i have suggested, he has the kind of efficient game and this amazing ability to manage his fitness and his health that he may even play until he is 40.

again, people are not taking this one little fact into account:

nothing stands still. he will make changes in his game and he will compensate for the older age and diminished movement.


i am not saying he is winning slams but if he loves tennis like he does then he can stay in the top 10 and keep snatching small titles for as long as he is driven to do so. he has the ability.

Thanks CD.

The problem is that nobody, not even Mr. Federer, knows how long he is going to play. He says he desires to play 3, 5-6 years, or maybe come back to Rotterdam in 7 years again to defend his 2012 title :). I have no doubt that he will do what it takes to continue playing as long as he wants. He definitely still enjoys the game and its challenges, but he's a family man. Too many things can happen. For example, his back could start hurting him to a point where he doesn't want to continue like so many other greats (Lendl, Sampras, etc.) Since Doha, he still doesn't look like he is putting 100% on his serve. We just don't know.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 04:18 PM
affirmative masterclass.

romismak
02-20-2012, 04:19 PM
I hope this thread was meant as joke, because there is no way Roger will make it to 100. The way things are in tennis world right now he will be lucky to get to 80. He is not kind of player that will suddenly play 250 events like Almagro just to get title, his chances are pretty limited to indoors or medium big events- 500, he most likely won´t win more than 1 slam more and also on Masters it is pretty difficult, he isn´t going to win any clay Masters for sure and on outdoor HC best of 3 anyone on good day can beat him, simply best of 3 is better for upsets. I can´t see him winning more than 2 Masters 1000 per year- even that is maybe too much, also who knows how long he will be top 10 i think 2 years, than age must get to him. His biggest chances in future will be indoors and grass, while Wimbledon is best of 5 and everyone will play their maximum there, it won´t be easy, so he should win at least 2 Halle´s if he will take it seriously. He can win some indoors like BAsel 2x, maybe Paris- WTF if is in good form and that´s it i can´t see him getting above 80...

Sophocles
02-20-2012, 04:29 PM
So what's the common link to play declining gracefully or little, and not precipitously?

I think the players who generally lasted longest are recognized as having outstanding footwork and desire to keep competing, along with the ability to stay relatively healthy.

Arthur Ashe rated Ken Rosewall and Richard "Pancho" Gonzales as having the best footwork in his day.
Ken Rosewall won his last title at the age of 43 in 1977. 3 weeks earlier he lost in the finals of the Sydney Indoors to Jimmy Connors.

Richard Gonzales: Tony Trabert, who disliked Gonzales intensely, still had this to say about him: "Gonzales is the greatest natural athlete tennis has ever known. The way he can move that 6-foot-2-inch frame of his around the court is almost unbelievable. He's just like a big cat...". Gonzales won his last title 3 months short of 44 years old in 1972.

Jimmy Connors' footwork and setup preparation are one of the greatest all time.
He won his last two tournaments at the age of 37, and went to the semifinal in the US Open at age 39.

Bjorn Borg Borg had outstanding footwork and speed and was one of the smoothest players ever to run on the court. But he didn't have the desire to continue playing beyond the age of 26. I include him here as perhaps the best example of someone with superb footwork and athletic ability who did not have longevity due to lack of desire to compete further. One needs both.

Andre Agassi Great footwork and preparation (similar to Connors), even though he didn't have the best speed. Won his last slam about 3 months short of his 33rd birthday (record still stands) and won his last tournament at age 35.

*Roger Federer is acknowledged as having one of the finest, most graceful (most efficient with little effort) footwork ever.
In my opinion, he is most similar to Mr. Gonzales in that respect.
Approaching age 31, after winning Rotterdam 2012, he stated he has the desire to compete several more years.

*Still active

Respectfully,
masterclass

Yeah good post. Made me feel a little more hopeful. But I still think 100 titles is out of the question.

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 04:53 PM
of course its a stretch. that is why it might be worth achieving.

that could be a nice goal to have out in front.

masterclass
02-20-2012, 05:11 PM
Soon I expect to see the poll: Which one is easier, Federer reaching #1 again, or him winning 100 titles? ;)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 05:14 PM
#1 will be difficult. additional slams will be difficult.

reaching 100 titles may be a nice goal since he wants to keep playing for a long time. it will be a good away to stay in the top 10 for one thing.

and of course if that is all you have even known then it is hard to go do something else.

look at all those oldies now trying to play seniors tennis. even lendl had to find his way back into the sport.

duong
02-20-2012, 05:15 PM
So what's the common link to play declining gracefully or little, and not precipitously?

I think the players who generally lasted longest are recognized as having outstanding footwork and desire to keep competing, along with the ability to stay relatively healthy.

There's another point which helps lasting long imo is having quite a "symmetric game" on the forehand and backhand, which helps playing great with less need for movement.

In a context where usually backhand is the players' weakest shot, it's quite the same as saying having a very good backhand.

Rosewall, Agassi and Connors had that, Lendl also had quite a good backhand, Federer less, and he has much used turning around his backhand to win. That looks even more important in modern time imo because the courts are slow then grinders are rewarded, then players who have no weak side are rewarded, then backhands in general have never been as good as now imo.

Then I don't think he has the best points to win for a very long time like these players (although having a great serve also helps because usually players don't lose their serve with age, except if they have problems with their back or shoulder).

But it's another topic than the one about his retirement : he may keep on playing with a light schedule and a bad ranking ;)

masterclass
02-20-2012, 05:28 PM
There's another point which helps lasting long imo is having quite a "symmetric game" on the forehand and backhand, which helps playing great with less need for movement.

In a context where usually backhand is the players' weakest shot, it's quite the same as saying having a very good backhand.

Rosewall, Agassi and Connors had that, Lendl also had quite a good backhand, Federer less, and he has much used turning around his backhand to win. That looks even more important in modern time imo because the courts are slow then grinders are rewarded, then players who have no weak side are rewarded, then backhands in general have never been as good as now imo.

Then I don't think he has the best points to win for a very long time like these players (although having a great serve also helps because usually players don't lose their serve with age, except if they have problems with their back or shoulder).

But it's another topic than the one about his retirement : he may keep on playing with a light schedule and a bad ranking ;)

Good point. One can look at it another way as well. Most 1 handed back-hand players, most "asymmetric" players with stronger forehands, and most all-courters need great footwork to have any chance to succeed on tour, and Federer is exactly an asymmetric 1 handed back-hand all-courter. The question is whether his great footwork and movement trumps his asymmetric tendencies and will preserve his longevity. I think more telling for him may be is service motion and how it affects his back over time. It's very fluid, but he really puts a lot of torque on it when serving his high American Twist kick serves.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-20-2012, 06:10 PM
his game is built around 4 things:

1. his serve
2. his forehand
3. his movement
4. his ability to close out the points at the net

he can easily compensate for his diminished movement down the road by putting greater focus and time on the other 3.

and dont forget that he has the best slice on the planet. he can drop it over the net or he can knife it through the court.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 01:31 AM
Few players retire because they feel like it, Sampras last 2-3 years he looked exhausting and very old and when he retired at Feds age he was clearly mentaly and physically exhausted for anyone watching him play.

If you take a look at players like Edberg, Mcenroe, Becker, Lendl and Wilander they just werent competitive anymore at this age and I am not talking about them losing to Pete Sampras and Agassi at 30+ like Federer is losing 7 out of 12 matches last year to either Djokovic or Nadal. They were losing to journeymen right and left, struggling in early rounds and fighting to even get close to winning a title. Not like Federer beeing almost there in SFs and Fs every week, they just couldnt see the end of the tunnel.

All players except Borg felt forced to retire because they just couldnt compete anymore, they couldnt see themselves lifting another slam tournament or even master series. These are highly competitive people who lived all their life for tennis and probably fear having a pointless pastcareer life without tennis, imagine what would someone like Federer do without big crowds lifting his ego when they stand applauding some artistic shot improvised by him or the dream of another big title, did you see him all emotional winning Basel and Paris TMS last year?

Seriously, I dont understand what you are talking about saying Federer will retire 2012-2013 or maximum 2014, he isnt struggling to win early rounds lika Sampras 2001-2002 or all others mentioned the years before they retired, he doesnt look to be physically and mentally wasted, tennis seems to be effortless for Federer and something fun and the only playground for his creative genius. Federer is going to be pushed into retirement by some outside force and not free will, he wont feel comfortable watching Nadal on television trying to catch up to his 16 slams. I am quite sure he will be playing in 2016, anything more than that depends on circumstance and future events we cant predict at the moment.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 01:56 AM
excellent post by sexybeast. i approve that post.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 02:16 AM
Take a look at all great players last 2 years, not their age but what they accomplished! All of them were forced out of tennis because they couldnt compete anymore.

Sampras was ranked outside top 10 his last 2 years and so was Edberg, Wilander, Mcenroe, Lendl, Connors, Laver and Becker. Look at how many titles they won their last 2 years, Sampras and Edberg 1, Becker at 32-33 with 0 titles, Wilander with 0 titles for almost half a decade, Mcenroe with 0 titles his last 2 years, Lendl with 2 titles his last 2 years. Becker and Mcenroe were quite horrible their last 2 years and were going for 33, they were no where close to Federer's level at 30 and still struggled to get one last one at the age of 33.

Look at slam results, Sampras geting 2/8 times past R16, Edbeg 0/8 slams past R16, Mcenroe 2/8 times past R16, Wilander 0/8, Becker 0/8, Lendl 0/8.

Federer has been to 5 SFs in his last 6 Grand slams and been to 30+ straight QFs, you seriously expect he got another 2 years to play when he is clearly the 3rd best player in the world at 30 and winning 4-5 tournaments every year?

Let me remind you how top players end their careers, they end their careers struggling in early rounds fighting to get past early rounds in every tournament and living by the dream of winning that last big one. Only Ivanisevic and Sampras actually were able to do it, but everyone lives by that dream the latest years when they are ranked outside top 20 and want to improve their career resume with just one last slam just they cant even see the light at the end of the tunnel because they barely get to QFs in slams.

Still many here think Federer will just suddenly retire when he feels like it at nr3 in the world, you dont think he has one competitive bone in his body? You see signs he doesnt care anymore and doesnt enjoy tennis? Is he struggling with injuries and playing with pain killing medicine like Agassi and Sampras during their last years on tour?

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 02:29 AM
impressive post.

also add to that the fact that fed has consistently expressed his desire to play for a long time. i also believe he will start making some adjustments once the movement is significantly diminished.

he had nole on the ropes at the u.s. open. he should have won that match. he had finished off tsonga at wimbledon. somehow he went on a little mental vacation right in the middle of that match. he lost his concentration.

i think he has figured out a way to keep his fitness and his level of play high. its because he wants to hang around for a long time.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 02:54 AM
Further analysis how players were ranked and at their W/L stats and slam stats at year they turned 30 and how many more years they played:

Federer at 30:

Ranked 3rd in the world, 4 titles (including TMC), 1 slam final, 2 slam SFs and 1 slam QF, W-L 64-12

Sampras at 30:

Ended ranked 10th, 0 titles, 1 slam final and 3 early round losses, W-L 35-16

Played for another year.

Edberg at 30

Ranked 14th, early round losses in all slams for some years now, 0 titles, 46-26

Last year of his career (had no success in his last 4 years).

Becker at 30

Ranked 37th, 0 titles and finals, 1 Wimbledon QF and no other slam wins, 15-11.

Still played for another 2 years despite this awful year at ultrafast decline.


Lendl at 30

Ranked 3rd, 5 titles, won 1 slam, 1 SF and 1 slam QF, 54-12

Most similar to Federer? Played for another 4 years, I think Lendl was still not really on Feds level this year because top opponents in early 90s were not on peak-Nadal and Djokovic level.

Connors at 30


Epic year after beeing dominated all his late 20s by Mcenroe and Borg, won Wimbledon and Usopen and 7 titles, 78-11.

Ofcourse this does not give the whole picture, this was one odd year for Connors, who didnt win slams in any other year between 79-81. Borg had ended his career and Mcenroe was in the cloud. I bet if Nadal stopped playing tennis and Djokovic went into existential crisis Federer would have a Connors 82 year winning 2 slams and 7 titles.

Played for another 10 years....

Agassi at 30

Ranked 8th, 1 title and that was AO, SF in Wimbledon and early round loses in other 2 slams, Agassi was clearly not on Feds and Connors level at 30 but was given incredible draws in his last AOs, Schuettler, Kafelnikov and Clement in finals?

Played for another 6 years.


Conclusion: Federer should have a longevity atleast as long as Lendl's (another 4 years) but probably closer to Agassi's at 6 years but it is highly possible he could be looking to match Connors close to 10 years.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 03:01 AM
It should be mentioned Connors won 20 titles past 30, so if Federer wants to get 29 more he would have to do something beyond incredible and win more titles than the marathon man Connors who went around the world and played in really small venues, something Federer just wouldnt do. Laver won 42 titles past 30 but that was clearly another era and Laver played alot of very small venues aswell.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 03:04 AM
andres gomez won the french open at 31. not likely to happen often but it does show that you can do well in your 30`s.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 03:08 AM
andres gomez won the french open at 31. not likely to happen often but it does show that you can do well in your 30`s.

Yeah, if Djokovic and Nadal somehow like in 2009 were to be eliminated before SF in RG I bet Federer would once again be the favorite to win the title, at the time Gomez won the title against a very, very young Agassi in the final there was no dominant force on clay. 17 year old Chang had won the tournament the year before, where chaos reigns anything can happen.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 03:09 AM
It should be mentioned Connors won 20 titles past 30, so if Federer wants to get 29 more he would have to do something beyond incredible and win more titles than the marathon man Connors who went around the world and played in really small venues, something Federer just wouldnt do. Laver won 42 titles past 30 but that was clearly another era and Laver played alot of very small venues aswell.

that is just it. its either win small events and keep your ranking high for the bigger events or win nothing and drop like a rock in the rankings.

and that would certainly force him into retirement. rosewall stuck around for a long time as well. it was a testament to his fitness and his desire to stay involved in the sport.

remember that we have a lot of players on the tour already who are in their 30`s: ljubicic and dr ivo come to mind instantly.

and there are others. ferru must be 30 and he is ranked #5. and that dude has no weapons at all.

finally there are other possibilities: if you really want to compete until 40 and do reasonably well and you have the talent, you can always get more involved in doubles. 35-37 today is nothing in doubles.

average player cant do this but beasts like physical nadal, nole, and fed can play for a very very long time. especially fed since he plays the game so easily and he is a master of managing his health and his fitness.

Mountaindewslave
02-21-2012, 03:12 AM
so 30 years old tennis player needs to win almost a half of titles more that he won in last 12 years of carrier in time when surface becoming slower and slower and tennis more and more physically harder . pretty obvious this will happen

sam is right, 100 titles is extremely unrealistic. maybe he will end up with a few over 80, maybe 85 I would say tops... the only way he could get close to 100 would be if he played WAY WAY past his prime, but greats don't do that, and he shouldn't and probably won't do that because anyone recognizes that sort of thing tarnishes a career a bit

Mountaindewslave
02-21-2012, 03:14 AM
come off it folks. the big idea of this thread is to exlpore that very possibility.

its ok if you dont think he will hit 100 titles. your input is still important. that is what makes and also advances this discussion.


also where did i say they all have to be singles titles?

..... if you combined doubles and singles titles, 100 would not be nearly as impressive of a mark so obviously it was implied that you meant singles originally

Mountaindewslave
02-21-2012, 03:17 AM
if he snags another 5-6 titles this year, that makes 77 already.

now we are talking just 23 for the next 6 years. do the math.

and he is likely to play until he is 40.

not true maybe he'll play until he's 33/34 tops

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 03:18 AM
winning titles in doubles at an advanced age will be impressive. also fed will bring his name and his popularity to the party.

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 03:23 AM
Federer could be very smart and skip master series this year, he meets now all 3 conditions to not play a master series event and can therefor skip 3 master series events +monte carlo if he wants.

For every condition you can skip 1 of the 8 master series:

1)played over 600 matches
2)played for over 12 years
3)aged 31

Federer can play only the master series that suits him now, play some fast indoor tournaments instead of lets say the horrible slow and painful Indian Wells/Miami duo and practice hard or have vaccation during this time of the year, he could also skip Toronto and play a full asian schedule later, Tokyo+Shanghai or something like that. He could also skip some clay master series and play some fun small clay venue where he can win, they should move Hamburg 500 to spring, I am sure Federer would play there if they did so.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 03:30 AM
Federer could be very smart and skip master series this year, he meets now all 3 conditions to not play a master series event and can therefor skip 3 master series events +monte carlo if he wants.

For every condition you can skip 1 of the 8 master series:

1)played over 600 matches
2)played for over 12 years
3)aged 31

Federer can play only the master series that suits him now, play some fast indoor tournaments instead of lets say the horrible slow and painful Indian Wells/Miami duo, he could also skip Toronto and play a full asian schedule later, Tokyo+Shanghai or something like that. He could also skip some clay master series and play some fun small clay venue where he can win, they should move Hamburg 500 to spring, I am sure Federer would play there if they did so.

see that is the type of thing i would do if i was in fed`s shoes. the tradeoff is simple:

either play smaller events, stay in the sport while being competitive, and also be able keep a relatively high ranking.

or get the hell beaten out of you and drop in rankings like a rock which defeats the purpose of being out there in the sport and his objectives of playing for a long time.

my guess: he wants to keep his ranking high and stay in the sport.

Mountaindewslave
02-21-2012, 03:33 AM
winning titles in doubles at an advanced age will be impressive. also fed will bring his name and his popularity to the party.

winning doubles titles in older age just is not that impressive, statistically doubles players often are in fact in their 30's.... amassing any # of doubles titles at this point really does practically nothing for Roger's career

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 03:35 AM
see that is the type of thing i would do if i was in fed`s shoes. the tradeoff is simple:

either play smaller events, stay in the sport while being competitive, and also be able keep a relatively high ranking.

or get the hell beaten out of you and drop in rankings like a rock which defeats the purpose of being out there in the sport and his objectives of playing for a long time.

my guess: he wants to keep his ranking high and stay in the sport.

Federer is smart with his schedules but he is more proud than anything else, he wont back down without a fight on any surface. He will be there in SFs and Fs on slow hardcourt to battle it out with Djokovic and on clay against Nadal every year even if he loses all matches, he even played Monte Carlo last year, now why would you do that if your name is Roger Federer?

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 03:41 AM
Federer is smart with his schedules but he is more proud than anything else, he wont back down without a fight on any surface. He will be there in SFs and Fs on slow hardcourt to battle it out with Djokovic and on clay against Nadal every year even if he loses all matches, he even played Monte Carlo last year, now why would you do that if your name is Roger Federer?

that pride will have to give in to reality on the ground in about 2 years.

its either win small stuff or win nothing at all and be ranked outside top 40. that defeats his objectives of longevity in the sport.

i think he is going to play and compete until 37-40 so the path for that is quite clear. and he is going to want to win.

Mountaindewslave
02-21-2012, 03:47 AM
you need to lay off cheap liquor asap. why confine yourself when you can chit chat about all the players.

the discussion here is very real about fed and his longevity in the sport. read sexybeast`s posts for instance. sexybeast is giving you a free tennis history lesson. pay attention.

and as for nadal, i also happen to be his biggest critic. i reserve the right to be pissed off at him. also he may be your god but he is not mine.

he has failed to improve in 2 years and he fucked it up at the australian open final. he had it in the bag but managed to let his balls shrink. that is not the fearless nadal we had come to know.

he needs to get his shit together fast. i am betting that he will do just that this coming clay season.

Rafael Nadal has brought his game practically to the highest level it can go... he just does not have the style to hit a great flat ball, his serve will never be the best around, and Djokovic will always be a struggle for him... these things cannot and willnot change.

as a fan you should appreciate his talent and how great he hits the ball! possibly with the most spin of any player in the history of the sport. that great forehand, that great attitude and athleticism! Nadal has accomplished more than anyone could have dreamed and you will find it wise in life to recognize that there is a difference between positive criticism and negative criticism. insulting Nadal because you are dissapointing that his game lacks something and that he has won less than you would like in the last few years is childish. there is not much to change in his game, regardless of what you say, because he has mastered his style and just is never going to be a hard hitting baseliner or big server.

what is strange is that you are either pointing out your dissapointment or hope for change for Nadal in the clay season, or predicting outlandish things...

Federer will never make it to 100 titles. his own agenda (he has stated) is for Grand Slams and the #1 ranking and the Olympics. not amassing titles. he has said he will be around for the next few years with intention to be at the top of the game. the only way to amass titles would be to play MIckey Mouse tournaments which is something he clearly has no intention of doing.

this thread is bizarre.

Sophocles
02-21-2012, 09:45 AM
Federer could be very smart and skip master series this year, he meets now all 3 conditions to not play a master series event and can therefor skip 3 master series events +monte carlo if he wants.

For every condition you can skip 1 of the 8 master series:

1)played over 600 matches
2)played for over 12 years
3)aged 31

Federer can play only the master series that suits him now, play some fast indoor tournaments instead of lets say the horrible slow and painful Indian Wells/Miami duo and practice hard or have vaccation during this time of the year, he could also skip Toronto and play a full asian schedule later, Tokyo+Shanghai or something like that. He could also skip some clay master series and play some fun small clay venue where he can win, they should move Hamburg 500 to spring, I am sure Federer would play there if they did so.

I can certainly see the sense in skipping Indian Wells & Miami. He hasn't seemed to enjoy them in recent years, can't beat Nadal or Djoker there, & basically has very little chance of getting beyond the semis. On the other hand he does normally make the semis & if he's doing that in both, that's not a negligible number of points, so if he's serious about making one last push for the No. 1 ranking....

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 12:52 PM
where there is a will, there is usually a way. connors and rosewall are the gold standard in terms of longevity.

it is certainly possible for Fed if he stays driven.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 02:59 PM
i am predicting a title for Fed at the madrid masters this year.

duong
02-21-2012, 03:13 PM
Federer could be very smart and skip master series this year, he meets now all 3 conditions to not play a master series event and can therefor skip 3 master series events +monte carlo if he wants.

For every condition you can skip 1 of the 8 master series:

1)played over 600 matches
2)played for over 12 years
3)aged 31

Federer can play only the master series that suits him now, play some fast indoor tournaments instead of lets say the horrible slow and painful Indian Wells/Miami duo and practice hard or have vaccation during this time of the year, he could also skip Toronto and play a full asian schedule later, Tokyo+Shanghai or something like that. He could also skip some clay master series and play some fun small clay venue where he can win, they should move Hamburg 500 to spring, I am sure Federer would play there if they did so.

Fed only meets 2 of these conditions as the condition "age 31" is considered on the first of january : this year he's "allowed" (without any "reason") to skip 2 MS1000 tournaments (+MonteCarlo), next year he will meet all 3 conditions and be able to skip all MS1000 tournaments as he likes.

Anyway, I'm sure he will change his schedule in next years more according to his desires (+family and money ;) ) than about the rules and the rankings, he's already started that (Stockholm, Rotterdam), yes.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 04:03 PM
go fed. show them that you can play until 40 and still manage to be in the top 15.

buzz
02-21-2012, 04:15 PM
that pride will have to give in to reality on the ground in about 2 years.

its either win small stuff or win nothing at all and be ranked outside top 40.

You think Federer could win 100tiltes but when he keeps playing mainly masterseries and slams he will drop out of the top 40 in two years:stupid:

sexybeast
02-21-2012, 04:25 PM
I can certainly see the sense in skipping Indian Wells & Miami. He hasn't seemed to enjoy them in recent years, can't beat Nadal or Djoker there, & basically has very little chance of getting beyond the semis. On the other hand he does normally make the semis & if he's doing that in both, that's not a negligible number of points, so if he's serious about making one last push for the No. 1 ranking....

Federer would obviously need to put at rest his nr1 ranking ambitions (if it happens it happens), last year however he neglected the asian tour where he's got a much better chanse to win titles and played the boring slow hardcourt american spring, Federer could get 1500 points playing Shanghai+Tokyo and it doesnt take the same toil on the body as Indian Wells and Miami.

Psychological effect of winning titles (even 250 titles) instead of losing SFs against Djokovic and Nadal should not be neglected aswell.

Clay Death
02-21-2012, 04:33 PM
nature will take its true course sexybeast. not being able to win masters and slams down the road while wanting to keep the ranking high and somewhat significant, he will have to try to do well in lesser events.

ultimately he does want to win titles. you take what you can if you want to stay in the game.

masterclass
02-21-2012, 10:52 PM
Federer would obviously need to put at rest his nr1 ranking ambitions (if it happens it happens), last year however he neglected the asian tour where he's got a much better chanse to win titles and played the boring slow hardcourt american spring, Federer could get 1500 points playing Shanghai+Tokyo and it doesnt take the same toil on the body as Indian Wells and Miami.

Psychological effect of winning titles (even 250 titles) instead of losing SFs against Djokovic and Nadal should not be neglected aswell.

Unfortunately for Mr. Federer those slow American hard courts in IW and Miami have been mandatory. Also unfortunate for him, is that the outdoor hard court in Shanghai has also gotten much slower. Federer said at the bottom of this article (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=6150794), "Shanghai was brutally slow, Toronto was very slow and Miami and Indian Wells have been slowed drastically," says Federer. "Paris was fast. But that's okay. Otherwise, things can get boring." Bangkok indoor hard (250) might be a good option.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-22-2012, 01:02 AM
so how the hell did he win the french open if he is crying about hard courts being slower. he has also made around 4 french open finals. i am not buying what he is selling.

he can still win. he had that u.s. open semi won and he gave it away.

masterclass
02-22-2012, 02:08 AM
so how the hell did he win the french open if he is crying about hard courts being slower. he has also made around 4 french open finals. i am not buying what he is selling.

he can still win. he had that u.s. open semi won and he gave it away.

1. He won the French Open because he didn't have to face the Clay King of the 2000's and 2010-11 - Rafael Nadal. Soderling did him a favor.
2. He's the 2nd best player at Roland Garros in the current generation of players. The conditions are good for him, except for the super high bouncing topspin that only Nadal can generate, especially to the Federer backhand.
3. He can still win at Roland Garros if something unusual were to happen to the Clay King (let's hope not).
4. He beat the 2011 King Djokovic in his best year, ended his big winning streak, and kept him from making his first RG final.
5. Of course he can win at the US Open. The 2011 US Open semi vs. Djokovic should never have gone to 5 sets. But even there Djokovic had luck. 2011 was the slowest playing Open in years. They had resurfaced the court and also the rains from the hurricane came and drowned the courts. Remember Roddick watching the rainwater come up from court during a match and giving the tour Referee an earful? But even with all that, Federer managed to get to 2 match points but a not so brilliant serve along with some fortunate hitting from Djokovic managed to lose it for Federer. The problem with the wide serve is that if one doesn't get it wide enough, a player like Djokovic can track it and smack it and that's just what he did. I'm sure Federer would have liked to have that serve back.

But it's true that the hard courts of IW and Miami play slower and high bouncing, and don't favor him as much as the US summer courts of Cinci and the US Open. It's not that he can't do ok on those slower courts, it's all relative to whom he is playing. Those courts give enough edge to players that can run like Mr. Nadal and Mr. Djokovic, where it becomes too difficult for Federer to produce more winners than unforced errors. He would have to serve incredibly well and return like the devil to have a good chance of beating them.

Respectfully,
masterclass

tripwires
02-22-2012, 03:10 AM
so how the hell did he win the french open if he is crying about hard courts being slower. he has also made around 4 french open finals. i am not buying what he is selling.

he can still win. he had that u.s. open semi won and he gave it away.

He can play on slow surfaces too. He just prefers, and does better on, faster ones.

Clay Death
02-22-2012, 03:24 AM
1. He won the French Open because he didn't have to face the Clay King of the 2000's and 2010-11 - Rafael Nadal. Soderling did him a favor.
2. He's the 2nd best player at Roland Garros in the current generation of players. The conditions are good for him, except for the super high bouncing topspin that only Nadal can generate, especially to the Federer backhand.
3. He can still win at Roland Garros if something unusual were to happen to the Clay King (let's hope not).
4. He beat the 2011 King Djokovic in his best year, ended his big winning streak, and kept him from making his first RG final.
5. Of course he can win at the US Open. The 2011 US Open semi vs. Djokovic should never have gone to 5 sets. But even there Djokovic had luck. 2011 was the slowest playing Open in years. They had resurfaced the court and also the rains from the hurricane came and drowned the courts. Remember Roddick watching the rainwater come up from court during a match and giving the tour Referee an earful? But even with all that, Federer managed to get to 2 match points but a not so brilliant serve along with some fortunate hitting from Djokovic managed to lose it for Federer. The problem with the wide serve is that if one doesn't get it wide enough, a player like Djokovic can track it and smack it and that's just what he did. I'm sure Federer would have liked to have that serve back.

But it's true that the hard courts of IW and Miami play slower and high bouncing, and don't favor him as much as the US summer courts of Cinci and the US Open. It's not that he can't do ok on those slower courts, it's all relative to whom he is playing. Those courts give enough edge to players that can run like Mr. Nadal and Mr. Djokovic, where it becomes too difficult for Federer to produce more winners than unforced errors. He would have to serve incredibly well and return like the devil to have a good chance of beating them.

Respectfully,
masterclass

excellent post. so he is limited in some ways. who isnt? nobody can be totally dominant on all surfaces. the game is too demanding now.

fed, nole, and nadal came close but each have had some flaws. we are about to find out if nole is going to be a factor on clay. i still maintain that his game is ideally suited for hard courts.

Mr. Oracle
02-22-2012, 06:33 AM
Only if they put all tournaments indoors.

:haha:.....and at the end of the year.

tripwires
02-22-2012, 06:35 AM
Wasn't Rotterdam just last week?

masterclass
02-22-2012, 07:56 AM
Wasn't Rotterdam just last week?
Touché.:)

Respectfully,
masterclass

manadrainer
02-22-2012, 11:29 AM
100 titles seems too much for me CD, especially since it's true he has stated he wants to play for more years, but I don't think he'd like to travel without his family... and when the twins reach school age, I think he will retire.

Sure he still has the fire burning inside him, so he'll try to stay around as long as he can and try to win big titles. The only one he needs to avoid is Rafa, against Djoker I like his chances at Slams: last year it was 2-1 Djoker, but we all know how that Us open semifinal went...

Clay Death
02-22-2012, 01:07 PM
nobody really knows how it will play out. it is really all about Fed and his drive and his health down the road.

this was just an idea worth exploring. smaller events are certainly there to be had.

Clay Death
02-28-2012, 02:45 PM
i am ready to add the dubai title to his total count already. i think it could happen.

feuselino
02-28-2012, 07:33 PM
After turning 31 Federer is not obliged to play IW and Miami anymore, correct?

Clay Death
02-28-2012, 07:37 PM
i dont know actually but i would like to find out also.

i dont see Fed skipping indian wells and miami masters. combined appearance fee approaches around $3 mill. all under the table of course.

and he needs to keep his game relatively sharp.

Clay Death
02-28-2012, 09:49 PM
forum question:

how many total titles can fed win this year?

i put the number as high as 5.

manadrainer
02-28-2012, 10:00 PM
forum question:

how many total titles can fed win this year?

i put the number as high as 5.



Yeah, I think he can snatch five titles... Mostly indoors.

Clay Death
02-28-2012, 10:05 PM
Yeah, I think he can snatch five titles... Mostly indoors.


he has 1 already.

he might snatch queens so that makes 2.

so all he has left to do now is snatch 3 more: i am thinking paris indoors, WTF, and possible one other title somewhere.

depending on the draw and a few upsets, he may even snatch miami masters.

and dont forget if he can continues to progress, he may even snatch dubai.

Sunset of Age
02-29-2012, 12:03 AM
he has 1 already.

he might snatch queens so that makes 2.

100% sure he's not even making the first round over there. ;)

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:05 AM
why do you say that? i heard a while back he wanted to play queens.

Sunset of Age
02-29-2012, 12:13 AM
why do you say that? i heard a while back he wanted to play queens.

If anything, he'll play Halle. :)

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:15 AM
then he will win halle.

Sunset of Age
02-29-2012, 12:16 AM
then he will win halle.

Not so sure. I've heard a certain Spanish friend of his who does pretty well on grass himself will come over there as well. :p

BauerAlmeida
02-29-2012, 12:22 AM
If he plays one of those, it's definitely Halle.

shiaben
02-29-2012, 12:23 AM
Five Agree

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:23 AM
than the halle title is in the bag. that makes 2 already. only 3 to go and i think he gets those 3 somewhere.

5-6 titles is not too shabby for a 31 year old.

paseo
02-29-2012, 12:25 AM
If he goes to the Asian swing, he'll probably get one there.

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:27 AM
does anyone know exactly how many indoor events he is taking part in after the u.s. open?

i mean other than the obvious WTF in london.

Sunset of Age
02-29-2012, 12:29 AM
does anyone know exactly how many indoor events he is taking part in after the u.s. open?

i mean other than the obvious WTF in london.

Shanghai, Basel, Paris are on his official schedule.
Whether he'll indeed show up at all of those will remain to be seen.

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:32 AM
he could snatch those 3.

masterclass
02-29-2012, 08:37 AM
It's pure conjecture of course, as there are so many factors and so many things could happen. We don't know who might be injured, or what the weather will be like (yes, the margins are so small among the top players, playing conditions affected by weather make a difference), and other factors. I think the best one can do is give best case, worst case scenarios.

+Legend:
Bold = excellent chance to win,
Bold Italic = could win under favorable circumstances
Italic = outside chance under best circumstances
Normal = little or no chance
+ if questionable as to which category a tournament falls, I have leaned toward the more generous

Federer's Scheduled Tournaments:

Outdoor Hard Winter/Spring:
Dubai - if it is not too cool and Mr. Djokovic is not at his best, or if Mr. Federer is at his best.
Indian Wells - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun
Miami - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun

Clay:
Madrid - Blue clay this year, one of the fastest clay courts and not too high bouncing.
Rome - An outside chance, but things would have to go his way.
Roland Garros - if someone upsets Rafael Nadal early, then Federer is the next best RG player.

Grass:
Halle - normal fast low bouncing grass, Nadal should lose by the semi-final. Federer should take this if in form.
Wimbledon - depends on the weather and a good draw. If it is dry all tournament, Mr. Federer is in trouble as the wear and tear on the court will make the second week too high bouncing for him. If he gets lucky and they have rain prior or during that soaks the base, the bounce will be lower and he will have an excellent chance.
? - he may ask for an invitation in another tournament during the 3 week interval.
Olympics - played at Wimbledon, but with new grass, 3 set matches (except the final), and only a week of play, it works in Federer's favor.
Gold=750 points, Silver=450, Bronze=340

Outdoor Hard Summer/Fall:
Toronto - outside chance at best
Cincinnati - fast hard court, could win but other fast court players will also have a good chance.
US Open - If conditions are relatively fast (per usual), this will be Federer's best chance to take a major. If the courts are soaked like last year, or have been slowed down by too gritty a coat of paint, probably not.
Shanghai - Conditions have slowed down a lot over recent years. If it were faster, his chances would improve.

Indoors:
Basel - defending, he should not lose his home tournament
Paris - defending, possible early *withdrawal as this tourney will finish a day before the WTF.
WTF - defending, likes the O2 surface, not fast, but relatively low bouncing. Always tough competition, depends on his end of season energy as opposed to the other players.

Total # of excellent and could win under favorable circumstances: 10
If we take 20% of those away because he will be tired due to playing too deep in tournaments close together, then it is: 8
If we only count the excellent chances then it is: 5
If he enters another unscheduled tournament that favors him, add 1.
If he doesn't take any of the could wins, and muffs the excellent chances, then obviously, he could end up with under 5.
More realistically, I think it will even out. So 4-6 titles would be no surprise. 10 or more would be amazing for him, 3 or less, disappointing.

*Could selectively withdraw from tournaments post US Open if tired/hurt.

Respectfully,
masterclass

mcavoyfan
02-29-2012, 12:14 PM
^WOW, great analysis!! :worship:

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 12:30 PM
It's pure conjecture of course, as there are so many factors and so many things could happen. We don't know who might be injured, or what the weather will be like (yes, the margins are so small among the top players, playing conditions affected by weather make a difference), and other factors. I think the best one can do is give best case, worst case scenarios.

+Legend:
Bold = excellent chance to win,
Bold Italic = could win under favorable circumstances
Italic = outside chance under best circumstances
Normal = little or no chance
+ if questionable as to which category a tournament falls, I have leaned toward the more generous

Federer's Scheduled Tournaments:

Outdoor Hard Winter/Spring:
Dubai - if it is not too cool and Mr. Djokovic is not at his best, or if Mr. Federer is at his best.
Indian Wells - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun
Miami - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun

Clay:
Madrid - Blue clay this year, one of the fastest clay courts and not too high bouncing.
Rome - An outside chance, but things would have to go his way.
Roland Garros - if someone upsets Rafael Nadal early, then Federer is the next best RG player.

Grass:
Halle - normal fast low bouncing grass, Nadal should lose by the semi-final. Federer should take this if in form.
Wimbledon - depends on the weather and a good draw. If it is dry all tournament, Mr. Federer is in trouble as the wear and tear on the court will make the second week too high bouncing for him. If he gets lucky and they have rain prior or during that soaks the base, the bounce will be lower and he will have an excellent chance.
? - he may ask for an invitation in another tournament during the 3 week interval.
Olympics - played at Wimbledon, but with new grass, 3 set matches (except the final), and only a week of play, it works in Federer's favor.
Gold=750 points, Silver=450, Bronze=340

Outdoor Hard Summer/Fall:
Toronto - outside chance at best
Cincinnati - fast hard court, could win but other fast court players will also have a good chance.
US Open - If conditions are relatively fast (per usual), this will be Federer's best chance to take a major. If the courts are soaked like last year, or have been slowed down by too gritty a coat of paint, probably not.
Shanghai - Conditions have slowed down a lot over recent years. If it were faster, his chances would improve.

Indoors:
Basel - defending, he should not lose his home tournament
Paris - defending, possible early *withdrawal as this tourney will finish a day before the WTF.
WTF - defending, likes the O2 surface, not fast, but relatively low bouncing. Always tough competition, depends on his end of season energy as opposed to the other players.

Total # of excellent and could win under favorable circumstances: 10
If we take 20% of those away because he will be tired due to playing too deep in tournaments close together, then it is: 8
If we only count the excellent chances then it is: 5
If he enters another unscheduled tournament that favors him, add 1.
If he doesn't take any of the could wins, and muffs the excellent chances, then obviously, he could end up with under 5.
More realistically, I think it will even out. So 4-6 titles would be no surprise. 10 or more would be amazing for him, 3 or less, disappointing.

*Could selectively withdraw from tournaments post US Open if tired/hurt.

Respectfully,
masterclass

superb analysis. by far the best post of this thread.

masterclass
02-29-2012, 03:21 PM
Thanks mcavoyfan and CD. Just thinking a bit further... IF Mr. Federer can take 1 major (let's say the US Open) and the Olympics, that's a net gain of almost 1500 points. Then if Nadal takes Roland Garros, and someone besides Djokovic takes Wimbledon, then Djokovic has lost a net of 1600 points, just in the majors. In this scenario, Federer or Nadal have a fair chance at #1. Mr. Djokovic still has more to defend. So, I think Djokovic must take 1 more major somewhere to be pretty assured of #1 at the end of the year. It's going to be very interesting May - Sept.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
02-29-2012, 03:26 PM
defending wimbledon is not going to be easy this year masterclass. i have a feeling that fed, murray, and the clay warrior will eventually figure out NoDjok. they have to be tired of getting beat by him by now anyway.

i expect fed and murray to be more prepared this time around for wimbledon.

also nadal will roll into wimbledon after having caprtured his 7th french open so he will be riding a wave of confidence.

Clay Death
03-01-2012, 01:31 PM
Thanks mcavoyfan and CD. Just thinking a bit further... IF Mr. Federer can take 1 major (let's say the US Open) and the Olympics, that's a net gain of almost 1500 points. Then if Nadal takes Roland Garros, and someone besides Djokovic takes Wimbledon, then Djokovic has lost a net of 1600 points, just in the majors. In this scenario, Federer or Nadal have a fair chance at #1. Mr. Djokovic still has more to defend. So, I think Djokovic must take 1 more major somewhere to be pretty assured of #1 at the end of the year. It's going to be very interesting May - Sept.

Respectfully,
masterclass

a point to be noted general masterclass.

i think there chance sometime between the french open and the u.s. open for something to happen. #1 rank will be could be decided for 2012 in that time span.

Clay Death
03-01-2012, 01:31 PM
anybody still doubting my pridiction that Fed is going to snatch the title in dubai?

Clay Death
03-02-2012, 09:24 PM
If he goes to the Asian swing, he'll probably get one there.



i think he is snatching a title tomorrow.

Sunset of Age
03-02-2012, 09:35 PM
i think he is snatching a title tomorrow.

I wouldn't be too sure of that.

Clay Death
03-02-2012, 10:18 PM
now back on topic:

fed will snatch his 72nd title tomorrow. i think 3-5 more for the remainder of the year is looking more possible now.

so that means he could be sitting on 77 titles by the end of 2012.

that leaves just 23 to make it a total of 100. i think a guy like fed--if he can keep his health and his drive--is certainly capable of 23 more titles in the next 5-6 years.

i believe he plays until he is 38 or 39 so he will have more than enough time to pull that off.

Johnbert
03-03-2012, 03:51 PM
anybody still doubting my pridiction that Fed is going to snatch the title in dubai?

:bowdown:

manadrainer
03-03-2012, 04:01 PM
i am almost always right. just bump this thread after Fed snatches title #72 today.

Fed looked like a man on a mission today out there... too bad the next tournaments are on slow courts...

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:02 PM
thanks Johnbert. maybe now they will start paying attention to us.

congrats to fed, his team, his family, and all his fans. title #72 is snatched and day`s work is done.

exactly like i called it 3 weeks ago.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:04 PM
Fed looked like a man on a mission today out there... too bad the next tournaments are on slow courts...



nothing against andy because i like him but this was a surface that favored Fed`s current game. he was serving well enough and hitting his forehand reasonably well enough. relatively slick hard courts favors his game anyway.

and he was able to take the ball early for the msot part.


he did not play well today but if he had, the score would have been 6-3, 6-3.

hipolymer
03-03-2012, 04:08 PM
Stop bumping this topic. Roger has no chance to get 100 titles. I repeat: NO CHANCE

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:18 PM
he has 72 now and should have 76-77 by the end of the year.

i say the possibility does exist if he stays healthy, fit, and driven and he play until he is 38-39.

why dont you do the math.

sexybeast
03-03-2012, 04:21 PM
This is going to be an epic thread, not really because I think Federer will get to 100 titles but because he will get alot closer than most of you expect. In 4 years when he will be with around 90 this thread will start to really take fire.

Sunset of Age
03-03-2012, 04:22 PM
:hatoff: CD, well you were right yesterday, bud.

As Karlovic lended Murray his serve yesterday, I didn't expect the Croat wanting it back so soon. ;)

viruzzz
03-03-2012, 04:25 PM
I'm happy CD.
I was kinda nervous for this match, but Fed did well. 72 is a big number.
Now, you were so confident about your prediction, and you know this is MTF. In case of a fail, all the Anti-Fed army would be insulting you and the Pro-Fed army would call you a jinxer.
But you succeed and you were always IN with your prediction, even if the whole forum was against it.

Well played, sir. You always had my respect, and today I'm so ok with that.


Also.
This thread is a lucky one, we need to keep it up :lol:

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:26 PM
This is going to be an epic thread, not really because I think Federer will get to 100 titles but because he will get alot closer than most of you expect. In 4 years when he will be with around 90 this thread will start to really take fire.



perfectly well put and stated sexybeast. it is amazing how many legless ejaculites of the lost world at Ejacustan (aka asylum, aka GM) are willing to argue with us.

when will they learn that we are the ultimate cognoscente of these complicated tennis matters.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:30 PM
I'm happy CD.
I was kinda nervous for this match, but Fed did well. 72 is a big number.
Now, you were so confident about your prediction, and you know this is MTF. In case of a fail, all the Anti-Fed army would be insulting you and the Pro-Fed army would call you a jinxer.
But you succeed and you were always IN with your prediction, even if the whole forum was against it.

Well played, sir. You always had my respect, and today I'm so ok with that.


Also.
This thread is a lucky one, we need to keep it up :lol:


you are a class act mate. and you know i am a fan of your style. fashions fade but style is eternal as you know.


i am commissioning you to help me keep this thread alive. perhaps we can get it moved to the chat section after 1000 posts so it can stay alive forever.

i bet people will start to get nervous when he hits 90 titles by age 35-36.

abraxas21
03-03-2012, 04:30 PM
even in the un-happening scenario in which he gets to 100 titles, everyone would still say he'd need to surpass connors' record

sunsfuns
03-03-2012, 04:32 PM
100 titles? Are you kidding? I'll be happy if he overtakes John McEnroe (77) for #3 all time and ends up staying ahead of Nadal. Modern players just don't play enough tournaments every year to approach Lendl/Connors numbers.

I am still hoping for at least one more GS title, though. Olympic title is missing as well.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:33 PM
what was the record for connors anyway?

also how does anyone ever surpass what johnny mac has done: 77 singles and 77 doubles equals 154 titles. i think that is one hell of an achievement also.

Raiden
03-03-2012, 04:34 PM
Any chit-chat about reaching Connor's record is utter rubbish

Jimbo's record will NEVER be surpassed by anyone due to the current setup of the tour.

In order for that to happen the entire ATP circuit needs to almost cease to exist (which is precisely why Connors was able to do it).

hipolymer
03-03-2012, 04:43 PM
he has 72 now and should have 76-77 by the end of the year.

i say the possibility does exist if he stays healthy, fit, and driven and he play until he is 38-39.

why dont you do the math.

He is not going to play for that long...He'll be lucky to get his last title at 34.

abraxas21
03-03-2012, 04:44 PM
what was the record for connors anyway?

109 listed by the ATP Players' Guide

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 04:54 PM
impressive. connors was a factor in the sport for 20 years or more.

ballbasher101
03-03-2012, 05:18 PM
It would be nice if he got 100 but it is not going to happen. I can't see him playing at 34 but hey you never know. His game is not too taxing so he could play for a while yet, that is just wishful thinking on my part I must say.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 05:55 PM
It would be nice if he got 100 but it is not going to happen. I can't see him playing at 34 but hey you never know. His game is not too taxing so he could play for a while yet, that is just wishful thinking on my part I must say.


relax.

we specialize in the impossible here. the impossible we do immediately.


the totally impossible takes a little longer.

masterclass
03-03-2012, 06:31 PM
I'm happy CD.
I was kinda nervous for this match, but Fed did well. 72 is a big number.
Now, you were so confident about your prediction, and you know this is MTF. In case of a fail, all the Anti-Fed army would be insulting you and the Pro-Fed army would call you a jinxer.
But you succeed and you were always IN with your prediction, even if the whole forum was against it.

Well played, sir. You always had my respect, and today I'm so ok with that.


Also.
This thread is a lucky one, we need to keep it up :lol:

Not the whole forum... Mr. viruzzz ;) And yes, CD also had it right... :)

"...it's the obvious, really."
One, Mr. Federer outclassed Murray. 16 majors to 0, 9 on hard courts.
Doesn't matter if he hasn't won one a major recently, class sticks...and shows when the going gets tough.

Two, don't bet against Federer when conditions are faster and not high bouncing.

Three, Mr. Federer played a much tougher draw against tougher good fast court players than either Djokovic or Murray did.
When it came time to fight today, Murray would have benefited from stronger performances by Berdych and/or Djokovic.
This is very important for a player if they are going to have to fight later. Last year, Djokovic had a tougher road to the final and Federer had a very easy one, which hurt him, and Djokovic spanked him.

Federer had his ups and downs in the match on return. Did he get some help from Murray as well? Sure, but Federer's good service put a lot of pressure on Murray. Federer's serve was mostly impeccable, except for the solitary game where he played poorly at first, then Murray played brilliantly to break. But Federer quickly recovered his composure, which is something he wasn't able to do last year through the US Open, but has done it recently on several occasions where he has had to fight for the victory, and even in defeat like when he lost the Nadal match in the Australian Open this year. This has helped him toughen up.

Mr. Federer is on a roll right now. His wins are giving him more confidence. Since the US Open he has 33 wins out of 35 tour singles matches, with losses only to Nadal, and John Isner in the Davis Cup fiasco, and 6 titles (5 if you don't include the Davis cup win).
5 - 7 titles this year is well within his grasp, and a major is always possible, if he keeps this up. But not right away. Now starts the slow court season, which favors Mr. Nadal and Mr. Djokovic. He'll be happy to see them fight it out a few times, with Murray also in the mix, and if he can come out of it with a single title at the faster clay court in Madrid, and protect most of his other points through Roland Garros, I would think he will be happy and be in good stead for a grass attack.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 06:33 PM
impressive post by general masterclass.

class does indeed stick for a while. and quality is still there. this dude has lost like 2 matches since the last u.s. open.


we dont want to sound arrogant but general masterclass, myself, and general javier the fearless are usually pretty damned objective and reasonable. we like to call it like we see it and we like to call it fair.

there is no appetite for spin on our side of the fence.

Tennis-Life
03-03-2012, 06:41 PM
Not the whole forum... Mr. viruzzz ;) And yes, CD also had it right... :)

"...it's the obvious, really."
One, Mr. Federer outclassed Murray. 16 majors to 0, 9 on hard courts.
Doesn't matter if he hasn't won one a major recently, class sticks...and shows when the going gets tough.

Two, don't bet against Federer when conditions are faster and not high bouncing.

Three, Mr. Federer played a much tougher draw against tougher good fast court players than either Djokovic or Murray did.
When it came time to fight today, Murray would have benefited from stronger performances by Berdych and/or Djokovic.
This is very important for a player if they are going to have to fight later. Last year, Djokovic had a tougher road to the final and Federer had a very easy one, which hurt him, and Djokovic spanked him.

Federer had his ups and downs in the match on return. Did he get some help from Murray as well? Sure, but Federer's good service put a lot of pressure on Murray. Federer's serve was mostly impeccable, except for the solitary game where he played poorly at first, then Murray played brilliantly to break. But Federer quickly recovered his composure, which is something he wasn't able to do last year through the US Open, but has done it recently on several occasions where he has had to fight for the victory, and even in defeat like when he lost the Nadal match in the Australian Open this year. This has helped him toughen up.

Mr. Federer is on a roll right now. His wins are giving him more confidence. Since the US Open he has 33 wins out of 35 tour singles matches, with losses only to Nadal, and John Isner in the Davis Cup fiasco, and 6 titles (5 if you don't include the Davis cup win).
5 - 7 titles this year is well within his grasp, and a major is always possible, if he keeps this up. But not right away. Now starts the slow court season, which favors Mr. Nadal and Mr. Djokovic. He'll be happy to see them fight it out a few times, with Murray also in the mix, and if he can come out of it with a single title at the faster clay court in Madrid, and protect most of his other points through Roland Garros, I would think he will be happy and be in good stead for a grass attack.

Respectfully,
masterclass

masterclass, Great post :smoke:

masterclass
03-03-2012, 06:44 PM
sorry. no slams for fed reery. there is an outside chance for fed at wimbledon but he has to be in the same side of the draw as NoDjok. and NoDjok would have to be a little off.

then, and only then, can fed finde himself in the final. once there, it is anybody`s ball game.


i will answer the rest of your question later.

Mr. CD, if the US Open is back to being faster, like pre-2010-2011, he is always going to be a definite threat there. There were many complaints last year about the slowness of the court, sometimes the tournaments react to those comments. Even if it isn't faster, he's still a threat, but he needs better luck and more toughness than the last couple of years. I think he has become tougher the last few months, but needs to carry that into the US Open.

At Wimbledon, I agree that a favorable draw would help as you said, but even better would be if the weather gods help him. Intermittent rain and cloudy weather would keep the dust down and the base from baking hard in the sun, and the consequent high bounces once the grass wears down in the second week. If that happens, he is very dangerous there, but it's probably only a 1 in 6 chance.

At Roland Garros, he's a threat to win only if Rafael Nadal goes down somehow.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 06:51 PM
Mr. CD, if the US Open is back to being faster, like pre-2010-2011, he is always going to be a definite threat there. There were many complaints last year about the slowness of the court, sometimes the tournaments react to those comments. Even if it isn't faster, he's still a threat, but he needs better luck and more toughness than the last couple of years. I think he has become tougher the last few months, but needs to carry that into the US Open.

At Wimbledon, I agree that a favorable draw would help as you said, but even better would be if the weather gods help him. Intermittent rain and cloudy weather would keep the dust down and the base from baking hard in the sun, and the consequent high bounces once the grass wears down in the second week. If that happens, he is very dangerous there, but it's probably only a 1 in 6 chance.

At Roland Garros, he's a threat to win only if Rafael Nadal goes down somehow.

Respectfully,
masterclass


affirmative on all accounts.

i have to run to the store before the semi at delray beach.

will relpy to your post more adequately later.

masterclass
03-03-2012, 06:56 PM
impressive post by general masterclass.
masterclass, Great post :smoke:

Thanks for the kind words, but it's only because I have wonderful subject matter to inspire me. :angel:, and other nice posters :) who support and don't mind my admittedly lengthy posts. :shrug:

Respectfully,
masterclass

masterclass
03-03-2012, 06:57 PM
affirmative on all accounts.

i have to run to the store before the semi at delray beach.

will relpy to your post more adequately later.

ok, mr. CD. Watch out for traffic. ;)

Respectfully,
masterclass

Slice Winner
03-03-2012, 07:03 PM
Good call on predicting the eventual winner early on, Clay Death.

Johnbert
03-03-2012, 07:11 PM
:hatoff: mister clay death and mister masterclass

viruzzz
03-03-2012, 07:24 PM
CD and Masterclass discussing serious tennis in the same thread.
:worship:

I wanna join here.

I agree with Federer having a big chance in Madrid. Last year it was pretty fast and he won a set over Rafa, coming from a break down. He lost the match, but it was close and it could go other way.
Besides this, I see Nadal claming his "clay god" status. Montecarlo is always his tournament.
I think he would win Rome this year (who knows, maybe a victory over Nole).
And about Roland Garros... At the begining of the year a had a hearbeat this time it won't be won by Rafa. I still consider that heartbeat, but thinking seriously, I think he will win it easily.

A curious fact is Federer is playing just 3 clay tournaments in the whole year. No estoril or another 250, and no Montecarlo.
So, he'd probably rest well and be prepared for those matches. who knows?
Surprises did happen before.

manadrainer
03-03-2012, 07:56 PM
Fed is on a great roll... but we shouldn't get overexcited about that: slow, high-bouncing courts are there just behind the corner. He should focus on madrid, which should be fast enough, but he might be rusty after a month without play (no montecarlo).

ballbasher101
03-03-2012, 08:08 PM
People kissing masterclass and claydeath's asses :zzz:. There is nothing that has been said we don't already know. The Swiss is a fantastic player on fast courts. On slow hard courts great defenders like Nadal, Murray and the Djoker give him a tough time. Mentally he has improved over the last few months because quite frankly the guy has nothing more to prove. The pressure is off. The talk is all about the new rivalry of Djoker-Nadal. Murray has also been stealing the headlines with the appointment of Ivan.
As well as Federer is playing when it comes to the majors he will never get past you know who.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 08:10 PM
CD and Masterclass discussing serious tennis in the same thread.
:worship:

I wanna join here.

I agree with Federer having a big chance in Madrid. Last year it was pretty fast and he won a set over Rafa, coming from a break down. He lost the match, but it was close and it could go other way.
Besides this, I see Nadal claming his "clay god" status. Montecarlo is always his tournament.
I think he would win Rome this year (who knows, maybe a victory over Nole).
And about Roland Garros... At the begining of the year a had a hearbeat this time it won't be won by Rafa. I still consider that heartbeat, but thinking seriously, I think he will win it easily.

A curious fact is Federer is playing just 3 clay tournaments in the whole year. No estoril or another 250, and no Montecarlo.
So, he'd probably rest well and be prepared for those matches. who knows?
Surprises did happen before.



great post. looking a little further ahead, i think fed is going to do quite well after the u.s. open again. this year he is even better than he was last year. he is also armed with some added confidence.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 08:11 PM
Good call on predicting the eventual winner early on, Clay Death.

thanks Slice Winner.

Looner
03-03-2012, 08:16 PM
In one recent interview Fed suggested something interesting. He sort of implied he might skip Madrid and play MC instead. This sounds like a strange decision but let's wait and see.

MC's clay is closer to RG so that might be the reason whilst even winning in Madrid doesn't say much about anyone's chances at RG.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 08:21 PM
fed has a chance at a clay title this year if all goes just right:

madrid masters. he is not going to skip madrid. he needs his preparation for RG.

the draw needs to be favorable of course.

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 08:26 PM
check out his last words in this article at the very bottom. this is what i was saying. i think he is far further along this year than he was last year at this time. he is more fit and more confident:


DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)

Roger Federer edged Andy Murray 7-5, 6-4 Saturday to win his fifth Dubai Championships title.

The second-seeded Federer didn't drop a set all week and kept Murray off balance much of the match. The win was Federer's fifth title in seven tournaments and his 72nd overall.

''This is perfect. This is great. Any title is a good one, I'll tell you that,'' Federer said. ''I have a losing record against Murray.''

The 16-time Grand Slam champion improved to 7-8 against Murray, outplaying the 24-year-old from Scotland with a mix of powerful groundstrokes, drop shots and the occasional serve-and-volley.

''For sure I made a few too many mistakes in the second, and he was playing a lot more aggressive than in the first set,'' Murray said. ''Sets can come down to just a couple points. You get a lucky shot here or one great shot and you can break the set wide open.''

Federer saved two break points when down 3-2 in the first set at the Aviation Club. He saved the first when Murray hit a forehand long and won the second with a backhand volley.


Federer broke Murray to go up 6-5 and took the first set when Murray hit a forehand wide.

The two players traded breaks early in the second set before Federer broke decisively to make it 5-4. Murray saved one match point before the Swiss star hit a forehand winner into the corner.

''The match was close, I think in both sets, I just gave myself more opportunities than Andy did overall,'' said Federer, who used the fast surface to his advantage.


Murray, who was coming off his semifinal win against top-ranked Novak Djokovic, struggled with his backhand and serve. He won 85 percent of his first service points against Djokovic, but only 48 percent against Federer.

Murray insisted his win over Djokovic was not on his mind when he took the court against Federer.

''It was a good win yesterday, good win the day before, tough match today,'' Murray said. ''So I'm just happy with the week, because at this stage last year I was in a very different position, different frame of mind.''

Arkulari
03-03-2012, 09:44 PM
72 in the bag, he'll definitely break McEnroe's singles titles records but I doubt he'll break Connors'

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 09:53 PM
mac`s record could be broken this year alone. there is a chance anyway.

Looner
03-03-2012, 10:04 PM
I don't think I value Connors's record as much. I heard he played a lot of (real) MM events to get to 109. Tennis is very different nowadays. I think Lendl's count is an actual challenge (not sure of the number) but I'd be happy if Fed ends up with ~80-90 titles. What's astounding for me is Roger's winning percentage for tournaments he's entered - 72 titles, 102 finals, 251 tournaments played. That's >25% of tournaments that he's won in which he's participated. Stunning.

As for Fed being a challenge for anyone on any surface when being his game and especially serve and FH are on - well, you only need to look at what he did to Nadal in that first set in their RG final. Had he not started choking and feeling nervous, he'd have had a good chance of winning in 3/4. Fed is difficult to beat on any surface when on.

manadrainer
03-03-2012, 10:31 PM
see that is what is astounding here. all the bickering about how he needs fast courts to win is just bullshit. he wins because of his talent and when he executes his game.

this dude won hamburg once or twice and it was slower than piss. he has made about 100 finals at RG and won one of them.

he beat NoDjok there last year which was no easy feat to accomplish. nodjok was in his prime and in a zone last year and and fed was pushing 31. till fed bossed his ass around on clay.

Well CD, you can't deny that fast, low-bouncing courts favour Fed's game. Just look at the titles he's won in the last 2 years (counting since march 2010):

2010 Cincinnati
2010 Stockholm
2010 Basel
2010 World Tour Finals

2011 Doha
2011 Basel
2011 Paris-Bercy
2011 World Tour Finals

2012 Rotterdam
2012 Dubai

10 titles, 7 are indoors, the others on fast low-bouncing surfaces. He can go deep in tournaments with slow, high-bouncing courts, but he won't be the favourite to win against Rafa/Nole (especially against Rafa). His results in the past 2 years show what I mean...

Clay Death
03-03-2012, 10:38 PM
Well CD, you can't deny that fast, low-bouncing courts favour Fed's game. Just look at the titles he's won in the last 2 years (counting since march 2010):

2010 Cincinnati
2010 Stockholm
2010 Basel
2010 World Tour Finals

2011 Doha
2011 Basel
2011 Paris-Bercy
2011 World Tour Finals

2012 Rotterdam
2012 Dubai

10 titles, 7 are indoors, the others on fast low-bouncing surfaces. He can go deep in tournaments with slow, high-bouncing courts, but he won't be the favourite to win against Rafa/Nole (especially against Rafa). His results in the past 2 years show what I mean...


of course his game is more ideally suited for slick low bouncing surfaces. take grass for instance. just look at how many wimbledon titles he has snatched there.

but he has shown that he can win on any surface.

i call that talent. and talent is what does it for him.


finally he is almost 31 now so he has to take what he can which has been my main point in this hread all along anyway.

you take what you can or you take damn near nothing. what would you do?

ballbasher101
03-03-2012, 10:45 PM
Well CD, you can't deny that fast, low-bouncing courts favour Fed's game. Just look at the titles he's won in the last 2 years (counting since march 2010):

2010 Cincinnati
2010 Stockholm
2010 Basel
2010 World Tour Finals

2011 Doha
2011 Basel
2011 Paris-Bercy
2011 World Tour Finals

2012 Rotterdam
2012 Dubai

10 titles, 7 are indoors, the others on fast low-bouncing surfaces. He can go deep in tournaments with slow, high-bouncing courts, but he won't be the favourite to win against Rafa/Nole (especially against Rafa). His results in the past 2 years show what I mean...


Nice bit of stats there. Only a fool would go against you. Hats off to you :hatoff:

abraxas21
03-04-2012, 12:53 AM
Well CD, you can't deny that fast, low-bouncing courts favour Fed's game. Just look at the titles he's won in the last 2 years (counting since march 2010):

2010 Cincinnati
2010 Stockholm
2010 Basel
2010 World Tour Finals

2011 Doha
2011 Basel
2011 Paris-Bercy
2011 World Tour Finals

2012 Rotterdam
2012 Dubai

10 titles, 7 are indoors, the others on fast low-bouncing surfaces. He can go deep in tournaments with slow, high-bouncing courts, but he won't be the favourite to win against Rafa/Nole (especially against Rafa). His results in the past 2 years show what I mean...

exactly. i've long argued here that the most favourable aspect for federer isn't the court's speed but the court's bounce. the lower the bounce, the higher the chances for federer.

it's also quite telling that federer used to had so much success in hamburg. a slow clay court but with a notoriously low bounce

Clay Death
03-04-2012, 04:38 AM
predict the exact number of titles for Fed for 2012 and also for 2013. so basically how many additional titles can he snatch during the remainder of the season?

my own guess is that at the current rate, he may bag 4-5 more before the year is done.

and i predict 5-6 in 2013.

Arkulari
03-04-2012, 04:40 AM
CD: do you think he's the favorite for the World Tour Finals again?

Clay Death
03-04-2012, 04:41 AM
affirmative. he is even better this year than he was last year.

his whole frame of mind is different. he wants titles and he will take anything he can get.

Clay Death
03-04-2012, 04:43 AM
wtf is a done deal for him. make sure to bump this thread when it happens.

Arkulari
03-04-2012, 05:27 AM
wtf is a done deal for him. make sure to bump this thread when it happens.

A 7th Tennis Masters Cup/World Tour Finals for him? :eek: Woah, he's definitely breaking records left right and centre.

Clay Death
03-04-2012, 05:37 AM
affirmative.

manadrainer
03-04-2012, 10:15 AM
Anyway CD I didn't mean he can't win titles on different surfaces... the guy has won Hamburg 4 times and has been in 5 RG finals, that's because he is extremely talented and can adapt his game (he's also quite honest in saying that he's been helped by surface homogenization).

I think he can win 3/4 titles in the remaining part of the season, unfortunately he won't play many more tournaments indoors. (I am quite sure he'll skip Bercy, since in three consecuitive week he's got Basel, Bercy, WTF)

I think it's a bit too early to predict how many titles he'll snatch next season, but just to make a guess I say between 3 and 5 titles.

I've got another record he might target: he currently shares this one with Connors as being the only player to win 9 titles on Hard, Grass and Clay, he needs only one more clay title to be the first with 10 titles on clay, grass and hard. I really hope he can snatch a clay title somewhere before the end of his career.

Madrid Masters might be the right one, I hope he plays it this year but I heard in an interview he has still to decide which big clay tournaments to play (also in a video for an Italian newspaper they asked him if he's going to play Rome: he answered he should, but it didn't sound 100% sure of being there). I think he's planning even more carefully this year: he wants that Olympic gold in singles badly, he wants to make sure he peaks for Wimbledon/Olympics and not getting tired before.

romismak
03-04-2012, 11:47 AM
Well CD, you can't deny that fast, low-bouncing courts favour Fed's game. Just look at the titles he's won in the last 2 years (counting since march 2010):

2010 Cincinnati
2010 Stockholm
2010 Basel
2010 World Tour Finals

2011 Doha
2011 Basel
2011 Paris-Bercy
2011 World Tour Finals

2012 Rotterdam
2012 Dubai

10 titles, 7 are indoors, the others on fast low-bouncing surfaces. He can go deep in tournaments with slow, high-bouncing courts, but he won't be the favourite to win against Rafa/Nole (especially against Rafa). His results in the past 2 years show what I mean...

Good pointing out which events Roger won, obviously he is not getting nowhere close to 100 or No.1 in ranking- simple fact-most tournaments are slow or medium HC with higher bounce, and than we have clay and he is not going to be favorit at those events againt Nadal-Nole. Also Murray can beat him on slower HC than Dubai. There are other guys who can uspet him like Berdych, Tsonga, maybe even Delpo if he will play better.

Clay Death
03-04-2012, 03:27 PM
Anyway CD I didn't mean he can't win titles on different surfaces... the guy has won Hamburg 4 times and has been in 5 RG finals, that's because he is extremely talented and can adapt his game (he's also quite honest in saying that he's been helped by surface homogenization).

I think he can win 3/4 titles in the remaining part of the season, unfortunately he won't play many more tournaments indoors. (I am quite sure he'll skip Bercy, since in three consecuitive week he's got Basel, Bercy, WTF)

I think it's a bit too early to predict how many titles he'll snatch next season, but just to make a guess I say between 3 and 5 titles.

I've got another record he might target: he currently shares this one with Connors as being the only player to win 9 titles on Hard, Grass and Clay, he needs only one more clay title to be the first with 10 titles on clay, grass and hard. I really hope he can snatch a clay title somewhere before the end of his career.

Madrid Masters might be the right one, I hope he plays it this year but I heard in an interview he has still to decide which big clay tournaments to play (also in a video for an Italian newspaper they asked him if he's going to play Rome: he answered he should, but it didn't sound 100% sure of being there). I think he's planning even more carefully this year: he wants that Olympic gold in singles badly, he wants to make sure he peaks for Wimbledon/Olympics and not getting tired before.


excellent post manadrainer. affirmative on all accounts. gold is a possibility and it counts as a title.

Clay Death
03-05-2012, 02:51 AM
some people are saying that #73 could happen as early as indian wells or at the miami masters. he has won 32 of his last 34 matches if i am not mistaken.

its best of 3 sets folks. you know anything can happen in such a foremat.

any takers?

as for me, my prediction for indian wells is in place. i still think murray is going to pull it off.

manadrainer
03-05-2012, 11:04 AM
some people are saying that #73 could happen as early as indian wells or at the miami masters. he has won 32 of his last 34 matches if i am not mistaken.

its best of 3 sets folks. you know anything can happen in such a foremat.

any takers?

as for me, my prediction for indian wells is in place. i still think murray is going to pull it off.

I don't think he can snatch #73 at Indian Wells CD, the surface doesn't suit his game, however if he has a favourable draw and some early upsets (Maybe a rusty Rafa?) anything can happen.

However on these courts I favour Nole, Rafa and even Murray over Fed.

Looner
03-05-2012, 11:46 AM
Fed is not favourite at IW but if he gets some luck with the draw and he plays well, it's possible he can win.

Mystique
03-05-2012, 11:53 AM
Fed is not favourite at IW but if he gets some luck with the draw and he plays well, it's possible he can win.

I cannot see him beating two of top 4 back to back, especially in consecutive days. Also, we have to consider he goes into IW after having played Rotterdam and Dubai in three weeks, an exho in NYC - the other coast of US basically. With the jet lag and the the fact that the surface is going to be very different from Dubai, this is a hard ask of a 31 yr old, even if its Roger.
He needs some real luck with the draw and hope for some upsets early on. And of course, play very well.
Fingers crossed though, maybe the stars will align themselves ;)

Looner
03-05-2012, 12:53 PM
That's the thing though, he may not neeed to beat 2 out of the Top 4. He may not even need to beat one (that is rather optimistic. If DelPo falls in Nadal's quarter, I am sure he can give him a run for his money. I am also sure Davydenko is bad R2 or R3 match-up for Nadal as well. I quite confident Fed can do sth against Djoke - look at last year when Djoko was flying and Fed, to me, did not play as well as still almost took him out of IW in the SF.

EnriqueIG8
03-05-2012, 01:01 PM
I cannot see him beating two of top 4 back to back, especially in consecutive days. Also, we have to consider he goes into IW after having played Rotterdam and Dubai in three weeks, an exho in NYC - the other coast of US basically. With the jet lag and the the fact that the surface is going to be very different from Dubai, this is a hard ask of a 31 yr old, even if its Roger.
He needs some real luck with the draw and hope for some upsets early on. And of course, play very well.
Fingers crossed though, maybe the stars will align themselves ;)

Roger is still 30 mate ;)

But other than that I agree. He has played a lot lately but he also have this huge confidence and that can be a huge thing.

He hasn't done well in these masters the last couple of years but then again when was the last time Roger has won 2 titles before March started?

Topspindoctor
03-06-2012, 03:13 AM
He can do it - 10 more of Basel, Rotterdam and Dubai and the GOAT will achieve the impossible.

Arkulari
03-06-2012, 03:21 AM
I cannot see him beating two of top 4 back to back, especially in consecutive days. Also, we have to consider he goes into IW after having played Rotterdam and Dubai in three weeks, an exho in NYC - the other coast of US basically. With the jet lag and the the fact that the surface is going to be very different from Dubai, this is a hard ask of a 31 yr old, even if its Roger.
He needs some real luck with the draw and hope for some upsets early on. And of course, play very well.
Fingers crossed though, maybe the stars will align themselves ;)

This.

Topspindoctor
03-06-2012, 08:14 AM
Olderer hasnt been a factor in iw/miami since 2006, there is no theseway he is winning either of
these titles. His best chance is cinci/paris indoors/basel etc

masterclass
03-06-2012, 09:01 AM
Olderer hasnt been a factor in iw/miami since 2006, there is no theseway he is winning either of
these titles. His best chance is cinci/paris indoors/basel etc

I would also give him an excellent chance in Madrid especially if it is true that Rafael Nadal is not going to play there.
It's the new blue clay. He won there in 2009, and lost to Nadal in 2010 and 2011.

Also Halle has to be included as well. He's won 5 out of the last 6 times he's played there.

And I wouldn't dismiss him from the Olympics, or Wimbledon, or the US Open, but it would be clearly more difficult, as any slam is for anybody (except maybe Nadal at Roland Garros).

Respectfully,
masterclass

Clay Death
03-06-2012, 02:40 PM
halle is a lock. paris masters is a strong possibility.

and as masterclass has suggested, madrid is something he can capture. he has done it before.

and a gold medal is also a strong possibility. he is going to go all out for it.


i am giving him WTF right now.

Looner
03-06-2012, 09:59 PM
Olderer hasnt been a factor in iw/miami since 2006, there is no theseway he is winning either of
these titles. His best chance is cinci/paris indoors/basel etc

Indeed, almost taking out Djoko in the semis at the beginning of his best tennis year ever is not being a factor :facepalm:. It seems form is temporary, class is permanent when it comes to your clowning abilities.

Clay Death
03-07-2012, 12:21 AM
based on this draw, fed has a chance here but my prediction is murray for the title.

if fed can get into the final then obviously he may just have his chances. we will just have to see.

i think murray is going to show that he has gained significant ground on no-djok.

sexybeast
03-07-2012, 11:18 AM
This is so weird.

I will never get these overly pessimistic Fed Fans.

'I cannot see him beating two of the top 4 back to back'? REALLY? This is Roger fucking Federer. He can do literally anything.

Underrate Fed to your cost. The man is still fully capable of beating anyone on his day on any surface. If you think otherwise, you are deluded.

31 years old on a slow hardcourt?

Maybe he could beat Murray and Djokovic back to back but Federer cant beat Nadal in Indian Wells or Miami.

reery
03-07-2012, 12:08 PM
CD: this is basically slower than MonteCarlo and is so high bouncing it's not funny, so this ain't your typical HC.

Miami is even slower than IW. :o Remember the Federer-Nadal score last year in Miami?

Federer's best chance to win a m1000 before the FO will be in Madrid.

viruzzz
03-07-2012, 12:19 PM
Well... I think Fed obviously has a chance, I think he can be stopped only by the big 4.
It's true Fed has a difficult draw, but I think he can rule Delpo or Ferrer.
Nadal needs to beat Tsonga to reach SF. If Jo plays like last year (June-November), he has a chance here.
But the logic I see here is Nadal winning over Fed, the only one who can stop Rafa is Tsonga and I give Rafa 70% winning chance.

Now... If Fed reaches the final, I think Nole-Andy would be kinda scared.

Clay Death
03-07-2012, 02:30 PM
This is so weird.

I will never get these overly pessimistic Fed Fans.

'I cannot see him beating two of the top 4 back to back'? REALLY? This is Roger fucking Federer. He can do literally anything.

Underrate Fed to your cost. The man is still fully capable of beating anyone on his day on any surface. If you think otherwise, you are deluded.

they dont quite believe in their player for some reason. the dude has lost matches since the last u.s. open. he has snatched 42 of his last 34 matches.

he just took on a field that had 8 of the worlds best 10 players.

this is why this thread is so cool. i am not even a Fed fan and i am having to tell these people to believe in their own player.

EnriqueIG8
03-07-2012, 03:16 PM
28 titles in 5 or 6 years?

Is it do-able?


that means about 4 to 5 titles a year. I think he can.

Clay Death
03-07-2012, 07:56 PM
affirmative generalito. it is do-able.

all indication is that he wants to hang around and snatch titles.

Mountaindewslave
03-07-2012, 08:12 PM
28 titles in 5 or 6 years?

Is it do-able?


that means about 4 to 5 titles a year. I think he can.

are you inane do you really think when federer is 35 years old he will win more titles than he did when he was 29/30 p/year? that is just ridiculous man!

obviously the 100 count is astronomical amount to forecast and won't happen but claydeath has accomplished a very sucessfull jinx thread that has gotten lots of attention

Clay Death
03-07-2012, 08:27 PM
impossible is nothing as some believe Mountainslave.

anything is possible for some.

Clay Death
03-11-2012, 07:36 AM
well my prediction of murray winning the title at indian wells went up in smoke tonight.

and now for my 2nd prediction then:

Fed for the title here at indian wells. i say the probability of another Fed title just went up.now he will easily be the best prepared going into the final. his only hurdle might be the clay warrior. he gets over that one, he has a good chance in the final.

any non-believers out there?

hipolymer
03-11-2012, 07:46 AM
Court plays too slow for Fed to win against both Rafa and Nole. He will probably defend his points.

Naudio Spanlatine
03-11-2012, 09:14 AM
Court plays too slow for Fed to win against both Rafa and Nole. He will probably defend his points.

This.

GSMnadal
03-11-2012, 09:23 AM
well my prediction of murray winning the title at indian wells went up in smoke tonight.

and now for my 2nd prediction then:

Fed for the title here at indian wells. i say the probability of another Fed title just went up.now he will easily be the best prepared going into the final. his only hurdle might be the clay warrior. he gets over that one, he has a good chance in the final.

any non-believers out there?

Murray was never the problem for Federer here. His odds of winning are just as small as they were before the Murray debacle.

Fujee
03-11-2012, 12:23 PM
100 is asking alot but he would have to have a couple of real good seasons for it to be realistic. I reckon he will end on about 85

Lopez
03-11-2012, 12:54 PM
I have Federer winning in my draw challenge. But it's more wishful thinking to be honest and relies on the prediction that Nadal loses to JWT and that Nole loses to Murray... Needless to say, Nole won't lose to Murray at least ;). Though I like Fed's chances against Nole in the final. Nole hasn't been too impressive, though I hope he raises his level.

If it's a Federer-Nole final, I win regardless :cool:

sexybeast
03-11-2012, 01:29 PM
well my prediction of murray winning the title at indian wells went up in smoke tonight.

and now for my 2nd prediction then:

Fed for the title here at indian wells. i say the probability of another Fed title just went up.now he will easily be the best prepared going into the final. his only hurdle might be the clay warrior. he gets over that one, he has a good chance in the final.

any non-believers out there?

This time I am not with you CD, these courts dont suit Federer, he wont beat Del Potro, Nadal and Djokovic back to back to win Indian Wells. Tsonga shouldnt beat Nadal on this surface and neither Federer. I didnt belive before, but the draw for Djokovic is wide open and I cant see anyone defeating him now and Nadal got an easy draw aswell, Baghdatis and Tsonga are the only threats I see and they are no real threats to Nadal.

Clay Death
03-11-2012, 05:18 PM
This time I am not with you CD, these courts dont suit Federer, he wont beat Del Potro, Nadal and Djokovic back to back to win Indian Wells. Tsonga shouldnt beat Nadal on this surface and neither Federer. I didnt belive before, but the draw for Djokovic is wide open and I cant see anyone defeating him now and Nadal got an easy draw aswell, Baghdatis and Tsonga are the only threats I see and they are no real threats to Nadal.


clay warrior has not played in a while and he is also fucking around in doubles. doubles will make lose his main focus here.

i am not sold that he is going to be in the final. i think fed has a chance. he is the one who is on a roll.

it could happen. anything is possible but nadal winning hard court titles is a thing of the past.

so it comes down to the fed and no-djok. fed had him fully defeated at the u.s. open and he gunned him down at RG.

fed knows hard courts and he still has the game that can trouble anyone.

sure no-djok is the heavy favorite as he should be. he has earned that. i am just betting on the underdogs.

Vida
03-11-2012, 05:51 PM
well my prediction of murray winning the title at indian wells went up in smoke tonight.

and now for my 2nd prediction then:

Fed for the title here at indian wells. i say the probability of another Fed title just went up.now he will easily be the best prepared going into the final. his only hurdle might be the clay warrior. he gets over that one, he has a good chance in the final.

any non-believers out there?

whats wrong with you clay death?

Evitman
03-11-2012, 05:54 PM
Since 2008, Fed has won only 19 titles. What make you think he can manage to win 28 more is beyond my logic. :facepalm:

Clay Death
03-11-2012, 05:54 PM
what up vida.

i am usually on the side of the under dogs. we all know who are the heavy favorites. that is too easy.

Vida
03-11-2012, 05:56 PM
what up vida.

i am usually on the side of the under dogs. we all know who are the heavy favorites. that is too easy.

ah ok.

realistically though, fed beating nadal ... :shrug: than novak.... :shrug: :shrug:

a stretch to say the least.

Clay Death
03-15-2012, 03:15 AM
i am making my final prediction for the indian wells title.

say hello to title #73 for fed at indian wells.

if he gets into the final, he is taking home the title and i dont care who is on the other side of the net.

who is brave enough to join me with this shocking prediction?

Clay Death
03-15-2012, 03:17 AM
i am hearing a lot of nonsense here. courts are too slow. they are slower than slow. they play like clay.

well guess what? all he does is win. so deal with it.