Objectively speaking, who has the best chance of the top 4 at Wimbledon? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Objectively speaking, who has the best chance of the top 4 at Wimbledon?

BULLZ1LLA
06-18-2011, 05:09 PM
(http://www.tennisserver.com/lines/lines_11_06_17.shtml


THE BIG FOUR IN MEN'S TENNIS

Rafael Nadal, 25, 6-1, score Sk = 4.42. A two-time past Wimbledon champion and winner of four of the last five Slams (Garros 10, Wimbledon 10, U.S. Open 10, and Garros 11), Nadal has the top score in our First Indicator. He also leads in the Third Indicator, "Elite Wins vs. Total Losses," where he shows 25 match victories in 2010-2011 over our nine designated elite players compared with 17 losses overall during the period, a ratio of 1.47. Rafa is second to Djokovic in 2011 year-to-date ranking points, our Second Indicator, and second to Federer in our Fifth, Wimbledon Achievement, while showing career grass-court W-L record of 42-9.

Rafa's career has evolved as if tailored for historic greatness. Arriving on the scene as a powerful and athletic teenaged baseliner and then winning Garros in his first several tries, Rafa veered away from the pattern seen among past great Spanish clay-courters. Instead of turning away from the grass-court game, Rafa instead expanded his techniques and tactics toward the objective of excelling on fast courts. His improved serve, sliced backhand, and new inclination and ability in attacking helped produce his Wimbledon crowns in 2008 and 2010. Seemingly at full health now, and seemingly resolved to mix in large doses of aggressive play, it is difficult to see anyone outside the Big Four seriously threatening him in best-of-five-set action. Predicted Wimbledon 11 finish: Champion.

Novak Djokovic, 24, 6-2, Sk = 4.02. Djokovic won his first seven tournaments of 2011, including Australian Open and the Master's Series events at Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, and Rome, before losing to Federer at Garros. During his splendid run, Nole's strengths in both attacking and defensive play were unmatched by any other player, where his most important margin of superiority was probably in his movement and countering ability against an opponent's forceful play. Djokovic also scored well last year, finishing as runner-up to Nadal at U.S. Open 10, where he beat Federer in five, and ending the year as World #3.

Novak is the comfortable leader in our Second Indicator, 2011 ranking points, reflecting his 41 consecutive early-year victories. He is second to Nadal in the First and Third Indicators, where in the latter category his 14 Elite Wins compares with 14 Total Losses in 2010-2011 to produce a ratio of 1.00. As to our Fourth Indicator, "Pattern of Improvement," Djokovic's career has obviously turned upward, though the extent of his improvement is not fully reflected in the score produced by our formula, as he starts from a pre-2011 ranking of #2.

Novak ranks behind the other members of the Big Four in his past achievement at Wimbledon, our Fifth Indicator. But compared with most opponents of his tennis generation, Novak is well experienced in grass-court play. He shows a 31-11 career W-L record on that surface, having attained the semis last year, losing to Berdych. His preparation for this year's Wimbledon included an appearance on grass this week at Boodles Tennis Challenge in Buckinghamshire, where he defeated Gilles Simon by comfortable scores. Djokovic's back-court-oriented style is not ideally suited to grass-court play, and his serving, although excellent, is hardly his strongest asset, as would seem preferable on grass. Predicted finish: Semi-finalist.

Roger Federer, 29, 6-1, Sk = 3.17. Five years older than his principal rivals, Federer showed at Garros 11 his determination to add to his sixteen Slam conquests. In his severe testing of Nadal at Garros, Roger began with all weapons blazing, very nearly capturing the first set and then sustaining his attacking play to force a fourth set. If his recent clay-court improvement over 2010 at Garros can be duplicated on grass at Wimbledon, where he was runner-up to Nadal last year, another triumph for Roger at the scene of his most storied successes is entirely plausible. He did not compete in the grass-court tune-up this year at Halle, citing injury.

Roger ranks behind the aforementioned two leaders in our first two Indicators, and also in the Third Indicator, where his 17 Elite Wins compare with 21 Total Losses for a ratio of 0.81. He leads in the Fifth Indicator, Wimbledon Achievement, and shows a splendid W-L tally of 96-14 careerwise on grass. Roger's superb offensive skills -- especially in serving, forehand, and at net -- improve his chances against the other Big Four members more at Wimbledon than at the other Slams. His actually defeating them there will require sustaining his absolute best tennis. Predicted finish: Runner-up.

Andy Murray, 24, 6-3, Sk = 2.71. Murray's mix of easy power in serving and stroking, along with his superb mobility and counter-punching skills, are readily transferred to the courts of turf, as Andy showed in his demolition of Andy Roddick and his split-set final-round victory over Tsonga at Queen's 2011. Andy stands inside the first four in most indicators, though in all cases behind the other Big Four members. He ranks only seventh in our Third Indicator, where his eight Elite Wins compare with 26 Total Losses for a ratio of 0.31.

As home-nation representative, Andy will receive strong support from the gallery at Wimbledon, though the extra pressure of his situation may prove a disadvantage. His past grass-court W-L record, at 44-11, is good, ahead of Djokovic's. He reached the Wimbledon quarters in 2008, the semis in 2009 and 2010. His recent triumph at Queen's was his second (he also won in 2009) and seems auspicious. The general view is that Andy should sometimes play more aggressively. That recommendation would seem most applicable at Wimbledon. Predicted finish: Semi-finalist.
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SerialKillerToBe
06-18-2011, 06:32 PM
(http://www.tennisserver.com/lines/lines_11_06_17.shtml
it is difficult to see anyone outside the Big Four seriously threatening him in best-of-five-set action



Really? He was taken to 5 sets last year by 2 players way below the top 4...

ossie
06-18-2011, 06:57 PM
the most difficult match rafa could have is against murray, the djoker cant beat him on grass and we all know what happens when rafa plays fed in a slam final.

abraxas21
06-18-2011, 07:00 PM
1- federer
1- murray (tied with federer)
3- nadal
4- djokovic

SerialKillerToBe
06-18-2011, 07:02 PM
the most difficult match rafa could have is against murray, the djoker cant beat him on grass and we all know what happens when rafa plays fed in a slam final.

Yeah despite losing 6 sets against Nadal on grass and winning 0, Murray is clearly the only one that can trouble him.

*facepalm* At least Djokovic took a set off of him, and believe it or not, Federer actually beat him at Wimbledon. Crazy I know.

BULLZ1LLA
06-18-2011, 07:26 PM
Yeah despite losing 6 sets against Nadal on grass and winning 0, Murray is clearly the only one that can trouble him.

*facepalm* At least Djokovic took a set off of him, and believe it or not, Federer actually beat him at Wimbledon. Crazy I know.

(Rafa had only played 4 grasscourt matches before 2006. That's crazy. Can see why Federer beat him :lol: )

SerialKillerToBe
06-18-2011, 07:38 PM
(Rafa had only played 4 grasscourt matches before 2006. That's crazy. Can see why Federer beat him :lol: )

I agree that Rafa is the favorite over Federer, but that guy's comment made absolutely no sense. Why would Murray be a better favorite than Djokovic or Federer to beat Nadal?

Legend
06-18-2011, 07:56 PM
the most difficult match rafa could have is against murray, the djoker cant beat him on grass and we all know what happens when rafa plays fed in a slam final.

Djoker can beat him now anywhere.Nadal feel's against Djokovic same,as Federer does against Nadal,and that will be untill he finally beat him.

BULLZ1LLA
06-18-2011, 07:59 PM
Djoker can beat him now anywhere.Nadal feel's against Djokovic same,as Federer does against Nadal,and that will be untill he finally beat him.

(Djokovic isn't good enough to beat Rafa in a slam, that is for sure. 5-0 Rafa leads, so far)

guga2120
06-18-2011, 08:02 PM
Even though I think Nole will win, Murray has a good as chance as anybody, and his draw is decent.

Sham Kay
06-18-2011, 08:23 PM
This is one of the first times everything feels really even. All four players seem to have big factors that favour them, but also factors that do the opposite in equal measure, making the tournament potentially explosive and probably a delight to watch.

Nadal will be confident. Off the back of a slam win and the defending champ, how can he not be confident.. on the flip side he isn't playing too well, as clay season showed and who knows how he'll be on the grass of Wimby this year. Still, he probably has the best chance.

Federer will be pretty confident after taking down the in-form Djoker and back on his favourite surface after a very good end to the clay season. Still, the match-up issue with Nadal is a problem.. one that he is struggling to do anything in retaliation against as of yet.

Djokovic, the in-form man. Best player this year, he's obviously riding a wave of brilliance at the moment and he seems to be comfortable playing Nadal now.. having the mental edge in that respect over Nadal is an important factor here, though having said that he is still unproven against Nadal in a Grand slam. Although an all-court player, the grass seems to be the place he gets the worst results (thats putting "worst" into context here) and he hasn't made a Wimby Final yet, furthermore, the loss to Fed may well have jilted that invincibility he had.

Murray had an impressive clay season compared to what people expected of him. He seems to be playing well and is the only man of the 4 to have strung together a good amount of wins on grass already and won a tournament (Queens) on it, which should give him confidence going into it. On the flip side Murray is the one with the most to prove here, has lost in straights to Nadal twice here already and is completely unproven against the other 2 here. Like Novak, he hasn't made a Wimby Final.

Judging by these facts, the order of best chance to win would be: Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray. But there isn't a huge gap between them, and so no absolutely clear winner. Nadal's form is the big question mark for him, but that is unlikely to stay that way when he gets to Wimby in truth. Still, I'm tempted to say Fed is more likely to win this for some reason..

MIMIC
06-18-2011, 09:02 PM
BULLZ1LLA and objectivity. :spit: What a joke.

abraxas21
06-18-2011, 09:13 PM
BULLZ1LLA and objectivity. :spit: What a joke.

hes right here, though

expecting djokovic to beat nadull in the wimby final would be akin to expect to see pigs flying in london

xdrewitdajx
06-18-2011, 11:47 PM
Federer.

MIMIC
06-19-2011, 12:03 AM
hes right here, though

expecting djokovic to beat nadull in the wimby final would be akin to expect to see pigs flying in london

Who said anything about Djokovic?

And if it's already determined who will lose to who in a final, then what is the point of this thread? :shrug:

!VamosRafa!
06-19-2011, 12:17 AM
(Djokovic isn't good enough to beat Rafa in a slam, that is for sure. 5-0 Rafa leads, so far)

3 months ago it was 5-0 in finals for Rafa...now it's 5-4 :sad:

zlaja777
06-19-2011, 12:46 AM
Have to say it's Nadal despite the fact that you are a narrow-minded Nadaltard with zero objectivity.

Orka_n
06-19-2011, 01:27 AM
Objectively speaking, Nadal and Federer has the biggest shot at the title. There's not much separating them, as the betting sites will tell you.