Will Federer drop out of top 4 this year? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Will Federer drop out of top 4 this year?

SheepleBuster
05-16-2011, 07:56 PM
As many of you know I am a big fan of Roger. He has been dominant for years and is still a factor. But by looking at ATP Race numbers, things don't look good for him. With Murray closing on him and Del Potro expected to make a splash during the hard court season in the U.S., do you think Roger will finish the year in top 4? Please share your top 5 predictions for the end of 2011.

Certinfy
05-16-2011, 07:57 PM
Yes. I don't see him repeating his results after Wimbledon. But on the other hand I don't think Soderling, Berdych or whoever else from the 5-10 range will step it up...

SheepleBuster
05-16-2011, 08:00 PM
Yes. I don't see him repeating his results after Wimbledon. But on the other hand I don't think Soderling, Berdych or whoever else from the 5-10 range will step it up...

Well. If Murray catches him in the rankings, Roger will be #4. If Del Po stays injury free, I can see Roger ending up #5. I don't think lower than that. The problem is not Roger's game. It is his consistency at this point. Maybe he will win all those tournaments again. Who knows.

yesh222
05-16-2011, 08:05 PM
I think he will be top 4 unless he keeps on losing early. Semis at all the Slams and Masters events will keep you in the top 4. I can't see Federer losing so often. He alread has over 2500 points on the season and will be over 4000 with semis at both RG and Wimby. That should be pretty close to securing #4 (and probably 3) with anything but a terrible second half of the season.

Arkulari
05-16-2011, 08:05 PM
Murray is prone to slumps, Soderling doesn't add enough good results, Pics is consistent but doesn't get far in most tournaments and the rest of the top 10 are pretty much in and out at this point, so it's highly likely that Roger will end up the year as top 3.

shoustar89
05-16-2011, 08:07 PM
If he play well in Wimbledon, he will stay in Top 3 by the end this year.
If not, I think he will be ranked #4.

Andre♥
05-16-2011, 08:09 PM
Federer is currently 4th in the race and he will certainly do better than Ferrer (currently 3rd, marginally ahead of Federer) on grass and hardcourts. Del Potro is injured and will skip RG and most likely Wimbledon, so he has no chance for a Top 4 finish. Soderling doesn't seem in form to do that good, especially knowing that he struggles in keeping any kind of results consistency on Masters 1000 tournaments. Murray, Nadal and Djokovic may finish ahead of him the rankings, but nobody else really. Federer is past his prime, he is struggling, but he is not that weak to be behind players like Ferrer, Berdych, Soderling or Almagro in the rankings. At least not this season.

SheepleBuster
05-16-2011, 08:09 PM
Murray is prone to slumps, Soderling doesn't add enough good results, Pics is consistent but doesn't get far in most tournaments and the rest of the top 10 are pretty much in and out at this point, so it's highly likely that Roger will end up the year as top 3.

I agree. The trouble is Roger has so many points to defend after Wimbledon. I mean he won so many tournaments last year. Can he win the year ending championship again? Can he mow through Rafa, Novak, and Murray like he did. Maybe he can.

I think Roger has almost zero chance of being #1 this year or even #2 the way Rafa and Nole are playing. But he can be caught by Del Po or Murray depending on his draw and if he has an early loss at a slam. Also, I am not convinced Del Po won't be back for Wimbledon. If he gets even a 3rd round there, he is on his way. He will win much more on hard courts. Let's not forget that Roger almost lost to the Columbian Giant at Wimbledon in the first round

romismak
05-16-2011, 08:15 PM
Roger will be 3rd to 5th 100% if he didn´t get seriously injured what is most unlikely going to happen, because that guy is healthy all the time he is on the tour - i mean he never was few months out, like Rafa of Hewitt. I don´t think he can surpass Nole and Rafa, he will surpass Ferrer, after RG is over there will be only grass and HC and indoor season where he will get at least 50% more points than Ferrer, guys like Berdych or Soderling won´t overtake him too, the only contenders take him down from 3rd are Murray and Delpo, one of them must play like man, probably will again have Murray good 2nd half of the year and Delpo if healthy will also get many poinst- but definetely those 5 i can see as top 5 if not to end of this year than Top 5 in 2012.

Andre♥
05-16-2011, 08:18 PM
People in here keep mentioning Del Potro. He is currently 9th in the race and he will skip Roland Garros and most likely Wimbledon. How is that possible that he will finish the season in the Top 5? Only if he wins the US Open + a couple of Masters1000 tournaments...

Sunset of Age
05-16-2011, 08:21 PM
Like others have already posted before me, Federer's ranking doesn't only rely on his own results, but on the results of his closest contestants as well. The only one with a reasonable chance to overtake him would be Murray, if he keeps on playing like he is now, which is a big IF. Federer has been scoring quite stable results so far and I don't see any reason why this wouldn't continue after the clay season has ended. Barring injury, of course.

I'm a bit surprised to see so many folks mention Del Potro as a possible candidate to take over. The guy was just coming back from a TRULY severe injury - not a few weeks out, but nearly a complete year - and just as it looked like was indeed on the way back, he caught another injury... which looks to be rather serious as well. :scared:

SheepleBuster
05-16-2011, 08:23 PM
People in here keep mentioning Del Potro. He is currently 9th in the race and he will skip Roland Garros and most likely Wimbledon. How is that possible that he will finish the season in the Top 5? Only if he wins the US Open + a couple of Masters1000 tournaments...

I am not sure he will skip Wimbledon. And He is good enough to reach the semis of a lot of hard court tournaments. No? I mean if he stays injury free and Roger does not step it up, he might. Of course, if he is injured for a long time, you are right.

Poirot123
05-16-2011, 08:36 PM
Federer will not drop out of the top 4 this year. His whole game is being fine tuned by Annacone to be competitive in the second half of the season. We all know Federer's game is more suited to the faster courts, and he has an evens chance of beating the best (Nadal, Djokovitch and Murray) at the likes of Wimbledon, US Open, Cincinatee, Toronto (or Montreal), and the WTF at the O2 in London, whereas on the slower courts (first half of the year, including hard courts like Miami which is slower than Rome) Federer really doesn't have much chance to beat the defensive baseliner beasts.

And Federer's results this year really haven't been that bad. He won Doha, SF in AO where he was beaten by an on fire Djokovitch, F in Dubai (where he looked like he was on holiday all week), SF in Indian Wells (came close to beating Djkovitch before he lost all consistency), SF in Miami (beaten by Nadal on the slowest hard court ever, where Federer had zero chance), SF in Madrid in a very even contest with Rafa on clay. The only real disappontments were at Monte Carlo (beaten by Melzer QF) and Rome (Gasquet R3). But Federer was never beating Djokovitch or Nadal on slow clay at MC or Rome.

A SF performance at RG would probably be a good performance for Federer this year, if he makes the final, he should be very pleased. I can't see him beating Djokovitch and Nadal back to back on clay, and in fact I can't see him beating Nadal at RG ever. The only way Federer is winning RG is if someone else takes at Rafa or Rafa gets injured. I think he could, just, however, beat Djokovitch.

finishingmove
05-16-2011, 08:38 PM
WHO would replace him ?

Matt01
05-16-2011, 08:41 PM
I'm not seeing it any time soon...

vn01
05-16-2011, 08:50 PM
he certainly won't drop out of top 4.

1.djokovic
2.nadal
3.federer
4.murray
5.soderling/del potro(if potro is injury-free)

Sham Kay
05-16-2011, 08:56 PM
3rd.

Sophocles
05-16-2011, 10:22 PM
Of course not. He's winning 3 slams this year.

ballbasher101
05-16-2011, 10:41 PM
Hard to say. He lost early at the French and Wimbledon last year by his standards. I think he can go far at Wimbledon and that could set him up well for the hardcourt season. So I don't think he will drop out of the top 4 this year.

freeandlonely
05-16-2011, 10:46 PM
no

alfonsojose
05-17-2011, 03:42 AM
JesuSFed will be top 5 for sure

Sri
05-17-2011, 03:44 AM
It all depends on his slam performances and he has a good chance of winning either Wimbledon or USO.

Sri
05-17-2011, 03:45 AM
Hard to say. He lost early at the French and Wimbledon last year by his standards. I think he can go far at Wimbledon and that could set him up well for the hardcourt season. So I don't think he will drop out of the top 4 this year.
Yep, he has points to gain in these slams.

Alex999
05-17-2011, 04:43 AM
I'm pretty sure that Roger will stay #3 for a while. If Murray gets his sh!t together, Fed might drop to #4. I don't see anybody else being able to overtake his #3 ranking (except Muza and that is questionable based on how inconsistent he's been lately)

Chase Visa
05-17-2011, 05:23 AM
No. No one outside of the top 4 is good enough imo.

Horatio Caine
05-17-2011, 07:05 AM
Federer is currently 4th in the race and he will certainly do better than Ferrer (currently 3rd, marginally ahead of Federer) on grass and hardcourts. Del Potro is injured and will skip RG and most likely Wimbledon, so he has no chance for a Top 4 finish. Soderling doesn't seem in form to do that good, especially knowing that he struggles in keeping any kind of results consistency on Masters 1000 tournaments. Murray, Nadal and Djokovic may finish ahead of him the rankings, but nobody else really. Federer is past his prime, he is struggling, but he is not that weak to be behind players like Ferrer, Berdych, Soderling or Almagro in the rankings. At least not this season.

This.

As others say, Murray could overtake him if he is motivated to play to the very best of his ability...and Wimbledon and the US Open this year give him a crucial opportunity to possibly win his first Slam (Rafa not at his best, and Nole likely to tire a bit at some point).

These days Fed is pretty much competing for SF of Masters and Slams, so it makes him an easier target to overtake, although still too consistently good for the likes of Ferrer (no huge impact off the clay), Soderling, Berdych etc.

ssin
05-17-2011, 07:25 AM
Federer will not drop out of the top 4 this year. His whole game is being fine tuned by Annacone to be competitive in the second half of the season. We all know Federer's game is more suited to the faster courts, and he has an evens chance of beating the best (Nadal, Djokovitch and Murray) at the likes of Wimbledon, US Open, Cincinatee, Toronto (or Montreal), and the WTF at the O2 in London, whereas on the slower courts (first half of the year, including hard courts like Miami which is slower than Rome) Federer really doesn't have much chance to beat the defensive baseliner beasts.

And Federer's results this year really haven't been that bad. He won Doha, SF in AO where he was beaten by an on fire Djokovitch, F in Dubai (where he looked like he was on holiday all week), SF in Indian Wells (came close to beating Djkovitch before he lost all consistency), SF in Miami (beaten by Nadal on the slowest hard court ever, where Federer had zero chance), SF in Madrid in a very even contest with Rafa on clay. The only real disappontments were at Monte Carlo (beaten by Melzer QF) and Rome (Gasquet R3). But Federer was never beating Djokovitch or Nadal on slow clay at MC or Rome.

A SF performance at RG would probably be a good performance for Federer this year, if he makes the final, he should be very pleased. I can't see him beating Djokovitch and Nadal back to back on clay, and in fact I can't see him beating Nadal at RG ever. The only way Federer is winning RG is if someone else takes at Rafa or Rafa gets injured. I think he could, just, however, beat Djokovitch.

good post, actually all top 3 players have been playing quite well this year, but it can't be seen that clearly due to the monster 1st half by Djokovic. No way Fed loses his spot this year, and if he manages to win Wimbledon we are in for very interesting period until 2012.