New Raw Statistic [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

New Raw Statistic

SuburbanAmerica
04-12-2011, 12:45 AM
Yeah, I'm new, but I figure one way to get some prestige around here is to contribute wherever possible. With that in mind, I'd like to share with you a simple - hence, raw - tennis stat I've come up with. It is so basic that I would be surprised if no one else had ever devised it before. However, I think this could be on the right track towards the creation of an accurate performance statistic (at least as accurate as possible).

The formula is,
(GW/GP) * (W/M) * 100
where GW is games won in a tournament, GP is games played in a tournament, W is matches won in a tournament, and M is matches played in a tournament. Let me explain the theory behind the math. GW/GP and W/M are simple averages: the former being a percentage of games won, the latter being a percentage of matches won. This is compiled over an entire tournament, then multiplied together, and finally multiplied by 100. The first two parts of the expression are multiplied because together they demonstrate proficiency in two critical areas - winning games, and winning matches. Again, there is more that can be explored with this, but what I have above seems to be a pretty good foundation.

Below, I have compiled the point totals of this stat for the top eight seeds in Indian Wells and Miami.

Sony Ericsson Open
Rafael Nadal – 78 games won, 128 games played, 6 matches, 5 wins: 50.75
Novak Djokovic – 77 games won, 114 games played, 6 matches, 6 wins: 67.50
Roger Federer – 45 games won, 77 games played, 5 matches, 4 wins: 46.72
Robin Soderling – 20 games won, 44 games played, 2 matches, 1 win: 22.75
Andy Murray – 6 games won, 19 games played, 1 match, 0 wins: 3.16
David Ferrer – 43 games won, 72 games played, 4 matches, 3 wins: 44.78
Tomas Berdych – 58 games won, 98 games played, 4 matches, 3 wins: 44.40
Andy Roddick – 10 games won, 23 games played, 1 match, 0 wins: 4.35
BNP Paribas Open
Rafael Nadal – 83 games won, 131 games played, 6 matches, 5 wins: 52.83
Novak Djokovic – 79 games won, 113 games played, 6 matches, 6 wins: 69.90
Roger Federer – 62 games won, 106 games played, 5 matches, 4 wins: 46.80
Robin Soderling – 19 games won, 45 games played, 2 matches, 1 win: 21.10
Andy Murray – 9 games won, 22 games played, 1 match, 0 wins: 4.09
David Ferrer – 9 games won, 22 games played, 1 match, 0 wins: 4.09
Tomas Berdych – 38 games won, 63 games played, 3 matches, 2 wins: 40.20
Andy Roddick – 35 games won, 62 games played, 3 matches, 2 wins: 37.67

Analyzing what's above, we see that Djokovic was head and shoulders above his rivals in the top eight. This is to be expected - he won both tournaments, after at all. After that, though, the differences become a little cloudier. Nadal earned a similar number of points in each tourney, reaching the finals of both; but Federer, in getting to the semifinals of both, compiled a total near that of Nadal. How is this possible if Nadal had a better match winning percentage? Federer had a better game winning percentage both times. This may be the case because (1) Nadal's losses, both to Djokovic, were very bad and therefore his game percentage was killed; or (2) Nadal just didn't perform as well as Federer, and received more favorable draws to reach the finals twice.

Please feel free to share your opinions as you see fit. Thanks!

pienet
04-12-2011, 12:42 PM
Thanks for your work. Would love to see these numbers over a larger number of tournaments!

Just my two cents: it seems to me that the GW/GP gives an (unfair?) advantage to big servers. Karlovic or Roddick are always likely to win 3-4 games in each set, whatever their form on the day. Then again most top players do hold serve very often.

More generally, there is very little incentive for players to win games. If you're down 5-1 on opponent's serve, you might tank the next game and concentrate on the next set. Don't know if this has any sort of effect though.

Snowwy
04-12-2011, 07:40 PM
Your calculation of Roddick at IW is wrong, should be zero. :)

AnnaK_4ever
04-13-2011, 10:11 AM
Yeah, I'm new, but I figure one way to get some prestige around here is to contribute wherever possible. With that in mind, I'd like to share with you a simple - hence, raw - tennis stat I've come up with. It is so basic that I would be surprised if no one else had ever devised it before. However, I think this could be on the right track towards the creation of an accurate performance statistic (at least as accurate as possible).

The formula is,
(GW/GP) * (W/M) * 100
where GW is games won in a tournament, GP is games played in a tournament, W is matches won in a tournament, and M is matches played in a tournament.

Your calculation for those who lost their opening round matches is wrong. All of them should receive 0 in points total since anything multiplied by zero becomes zero.