12-29-2010, 07:09 PM
We all know the story. Federer has 285 total weeks as #1. Sampras has 286.
Federer has champions points to defend at AO (2,000 points). Rafa only has QF points to defend (360). After this, Rafa has tons to defend. Federer, not so much (relatively speaking of course).
So, can he do it?
How will it happen?
In what month will it happen?
How long will he stay there?
If he doesn't do it this year, will it ever happen?
12-29-2010, 07:18 PM
There are already a couple of threads about this, I believe. Just give me a moment and I will try to find a link for you...
For the record, I think it is quite unlikely but not entirely impossible. If it were to happen, it would be in between Wimbledon and the indoor season. Don't think he will stay there for long, as he defends many points in the indoor season and at the WTF, which will be difficult to replicate. Also, if it doesn't happen in 2011, I can't see it happening in 2012 unfortunately.
12-29-2010, 07:33 PM
I know there are threads on this. But they are already filled with lots of garbage, so I thought I'd try a new one. This one will be filled with garbage shortly too, but I was hoping to get 1 or 2 good posts with some analysis.
AO will probably tell us if this is possible. Fed has the champions points to defend (2,000) and Rafa only QF (360). Rafa could (easily) increase his current ~3,300 point lead by another ~2,000.
I think the primary factor is how well Nadal plays / does Nadal stay healthy. Federer has been as consistent as they come. His game is still good enough. He has good chances to make up some ground on Rafa at Miami, IW, and Rome (maybe 1,000 points). Fed did not even play Monte Carlo last year (is he playing this year?). Then more chances at RG, and Wimby. He only has 720 combined at these slams (QF points). This is where he has the best chance.
But, if Nadal dominates clay like last year, there really isn't much hope. If he slips a bit and Federer is able to win Wimbledon (certainly possible), he's got a shot I think.
Everyone is going to say it is impossible, but Rafa only has points to defend starting with Monte Carlo and finishing with Wimby. 7,000 total points. He has no chance to gain (all champions points). In that stretch, Federer only has 1,330 points to defend.
Given Fed's form at WTF, I think it is certainly possible.
12-29-2010, 08:15 PM
Fed should be able to take #1 again.
The form he's shown the last few months has been improving up to the WTF.
I feel comfortable saying that he isn't finished trying to improve his game further with Annacone.
With improvements it takes time to incorporate some of the changes into the game so Fed should know when to use the changes better as time goes on.
These changes also have made the game more exciting for Fed I would guess, so the motivation should stay pretty high and that's exactly what he needs in this point of his career.
12-29-2010, 08:58 PM
If he doesn't start mugging it out of the mick mouse evenets, and some masters yes he will.
12-29-2010, 09:37 PM
Yes, Federer will get his throne at the top back next year.
I can't wait to see him known Nadull off the top spot :D
12-29-2010, 09:49 PM
I wish yes, but I think him carrying on his form since August as long as he'd need to to get it back is against the odds :-( Hope he'll prove me wrong though.
12-29-2010, 10:01 PM
I'm gonna say this.
I don't know if he would.