Roger Federers road back to world number one [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Roger Federers road back to world number one

2003
08-21-2010, 03:15 AM
Can it be done?

If last year repeats itself, and Roger has a good performance at the US Open, winning or reaching the final, does better at the WTF, and goes further than Nadal at the Australian Open and post Aus Open hardcourt events, can he get back to Number one?

Hes already going to do better at Cincinatti.

He will probably go further than Nadal at WTF because Nadal always sucks there.

Arkulari
08-21-2010, 03:16 AM
Roger doesn't have to defend practically anything from Dubai to Madrid and can improve in both RG and Wimbledon, I think he has a chance but only if he sets out to win tournaments early on the year, I don't see Roger winning anything on clay, maybe Halle on grass :shrug:

BlueSwan
08-21-2010, 04:14 AM
If Nadal is injured throughout the clay season, then it can be done. Otherwise it's extremely unlikely to happen. I've long maintained that the logistics of the tennis calendar heavily favours a player who can dominate one surface and stay consistent on other surfaces - that describes Nadal perfectly: he cleans up on clay EVERY year and scores very consistent results outside of clay. For Nadal not to be #1 it takes either superhuman efforts like when Federer was in GOD-mode and dominated hard courts - something which he does not possess anymore - or a badly timed injury to Nadal like in 2009. Nadal is the rightful #1 at the moment.

wackykid
08-21-2010, 04:27 AM
If Nadal is injured throughout the clay season, then it can be done. Otherwise it's extremely unlikely to happen. I've long maintained that the logistics of the tennis calendar heavily favours a player who can dominate one surface and stay consistent on other surfaces - that describes Nadal perfectly: he cleans up on clay EVERY year and scores very consistent results outside of clay. For Nadal not to be #1 it takes either superhuman efforts like when Federer was in GOD-mode and dominated hard courts - something which he does not possess anymore - or a badly timed injury to Nadal like in 2009. Nadal is the rightful #1 at the moment.

actually i beg to defer... if roger can do well -- better than last yr... and get strong results for the rest of this yr... including US open of cos... and defends aopen next yr... he has a chance to get back to #1 in clay season or by wimbledon next yr so long as he cleans up his act and get back to his winning ways... in clay/wimbledon... nadal has practially scored perfect this yr so he can't gain anymore points next yr to prevent federer from gaining back...

of cos... it's still too early to tell wat will happen...


regards,
wacky

MIMIC
08-21-2010, 05:12 AM
2008: Nadal #1
2009: Federer #1
2010: Nadal #1
2011: Federer #1
2012: Nadal #1
2013: Nadal #1

Benny_Maths
08-21-2010, 12:26 PM
If Nadal is injured throughout the clay season, then it can be done. Otherwise it's extremely unlikely to happen. I've long maintained that the logistics of the tennis calendar heavily favours a player who can dominate one surface and stay consistent on other surfaces - that describes Nadal perfectly: he cleans up on clay EVERY year and scores very consistent results outside of clay. For Nadal not to be #1 it takes either superhuman efforts like when Federer was in GOD-mode and dominated hard courts - something which he does not possess anymore - or a badly timed injury to Nadal like in 2009. Nadal is the rightful #1 at the moment.

Like when Federer's tennis was "not human" and "immortal"? :D

RxzFlrFfUrg

Certinfy
08-21-2010, 12:27 PM
No, he's done.

Roamed
08-21-2010, 12:48 PM
I don't think he will, sadly. These last two weeks are certainly encouraging but I don't know if he'll be able to get deep runs in all the smaller tournaments which is something he'll need to do. I mean, even in 2009 he kind of dropped off at the end of the year, he wouldn't be allowed to get results like losses to Benneteau in Paris for example. He'd have to make sure he wins the smaller events like Halle, Stockholm, Estoril. Rafa would probably have to have a less dominant spring/summer. Then again I never thought he'd get it back after he lost it the first time, so it's stupid to write him off completely regarding getting #1 back.

thrust
08-21-2010, 01:03 PM
I doubt if #1 is that important to Federer anymore. Slams is what interests him these days.

samanosuke
08-21-2010, 01:05 PM
If he want's he has to win cca 1000 points more until the end of this year then he did last year . Then even if he doesn't defend AO title with decent result there he is in good position because except Madrid he hasn't nothing to defend until August

The Magician
08-21-2010, 01:10 PM
A half decent thread from 2003 :eek: Yeah it can definitely be done, especially if players like Del Potro, Nalbandian, and Davydenko can cut into Nadal's clay points which are perfect at the moment. If Roger can win the TMC he'll be in a great position because it rewards a huge number of points and Nadal always does poorly.

dombrfc
08-21-2010, 01:43 PM
It can be done.

If it will.. :shrug:

peribsen
08-21-2010, 03:25 PM
Hes already going to do better at Cincinatti.

Last year Fed made QF in Canada and W Cinci: 1180 points
This year he made the final in Canada and for now has reached SF in Cinci: 960 points.
Roger is still defending pre-USO HC points.

Last year, Rafa made QF in Canada and SF in Cinci: 540 points
This year, he has achieved the same results, albeit the other way around: 540 points.

So Rafa has defended his points, while Fed won't if he loses today (if he beats Baghdatis but loses the final, he'll make 1200 points, which is about the same as last year's result; if he wins Cinci, he'll make 1600 points, which will aloow him to cut the difference with Rafa by 420 points). He may well do it, but we'll have to wait till tomorow night.

He will probably go further than Nadal at WTF because Nadal always sucks there.

I was aware that 2 SF out of 3 appearances cannot be described as brilliant, but 'sucks'? Well, if you say so...

Back on topic, of course Fed can do it, the question is not can he but will he.

tennis2tennis
08-21-2010, 03:57 PM
I doubt if #1 is that important to Federer anymore. Slams is what interests him these days.

when it comes to roger he seems to love history and records the only way I see him being motivated to reclaim the spot is for him to aim for the pete sampras record

2003
08-22-2010, 08:54 AM
I doubt if #1 is that important to Federer anymore. Slams is what interests him these days.

Well he already owns the slam record, not so the most weeks at number one record, so heres his chance to lean the scales of history toward him. So I disagree.

Lunatiq
08-22-2010, 09:09 AM
Good luck Roger!!!

fsoica
08-22-2010, 09:20 AM
if he wants it big time, this end of the year could improve big time his ranking points:

He has 0 in Shanghai, Stockholm, Paris (any points here for the loss in 2nd rd vs benneteau?) and 400 in WTF from last year.

If he gets his act together he could win Shanghai, play a final in Paris and win WTF.

This means 3000 points more to his present ranking points.

Since final in Basel and USOpen are also realistic for him, who knows ? Federer could end the year, in this scenario, somewhere near 10000 points.

syc23
08-22-2010, 10:12 AM
The only goals in life left for Roger is to win 20 slams and for Mirka to consume less burgers.

fsoica
08-22-2010, 10:15 AM
The only goals in life left for Roger is to win 20 slams and for Mirka to consume less burgers.

20 slams is possible...
a fat-free Mirka is from a parallel universe :D

MacTheKnife
08-22-2010, 11:26 AM
I think it's unlikely. The next two slams will tell us a lot about federer's status. Going into 2011 they have virtually reversed roles from this year's situation. After the AO, Nadal will have all the points to defend and federer will have a lot of opportunities. A lot will have to do with the field too. If the rest of the top guys get healthy and get their shit together, that could change the picture considerably. Delpony being out has changed the point structure this year considerably. WIth him back in the mix, things could change drastically.

But just can't see it.

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:28 PM
Great second half hardcourt season start for Fed. With 1600 points he is well ahead of the others.
He is in good form and back to full health.

Because Fed is very good on every surface, I feel if he just remains consistent and gets to semis and final with the odd win he should finish number one after a good wimbledon performance next year (if not earlier).

Discuss.

A_Skywalker
08-22-2010, 07:29 PM
Yes, if every opponent he plays withdraws or retires he will be n1.

fsoica
08-22-2010, 07:30 PM
too soon to discuss...wait until oz 2011

dombrfc
08-22-2010, 07:30 PM
Possibly, not probably.

But certainly a realistic outcome.

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:32 PM
too soon to discuss...wait until oz 2011

But it's fun to predict. :p

sabina_RF_lee
08-22-2010, 07:32 PM
Hopefully he will. But who knows, cause tennis is so unpredictable, despite that Roger proves everytime that he is the best. He wins even when people say he is done, like today. So I would say "Yes".

born_on_clay
08-22-2010, 07:39 PM
too soon :confused:

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:39 PM
Also hes willing to play more agressively. He may even improve from a tactical point.
Add up all my reasons and its just soooooooooo obvious that he will be #1.

Im kind of taking over orgasmatrons place. :lol:
Why did he get banned anyways? Id like to see the post that got him banned.

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:40 PM
too soon :confused:

Never too soon , predicting is fun.
fun fun fun till your daddy takes your t-bird away :p

ApproachShot
08-22-2010, 07:45 PM
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves here. Remember that Fed still has almost 4000 points in the form of a USO final, Madrid final and AO victory to defend and Nadal can pick up points at the WTF. Moreover as stellar as Rafa's clay court season was, he did miss Barcelona this year. However if Nadal fails to defend both parts of hid European Slam double, then it could get quite close in July 2011.

A lot will also depend upon how points are divided by players like Murray, Djokovic and Del Potro - not forgetting Soderling, Berdych, Davydenko and Roddick too.

dodo
08-22-2010, 07:49 PM
A Fed bandwagon. Fancy that.

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:52 PM
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves here. Remember that Fed still has almost 4000 points in the form of a USO final, Madrid final and AO victory to defend and Nadal can pick up points at the WTF. Moreover as stellar as Rafa's clay court season was, he did miss Barcelona this year. However if Nadal fails to defend both parts of hid European Slam double, then it could get quite close in July 2011.

A lot will also depend upon how points are divided by players like Murray, Djokovic and Del Potro - not forgetting Soderling, Berdych, Davydenko and Roddick too.

He does not need to defend those, he simply needs to pick up enough points by the end of wimbledon 2011.

He has the points lead within that time frame. He is back in form, his tactics are improving, hes healthy and hes very good on every surface. With his versatility and current consistency he does need to win many tournaments.

Arkulari
08-22-2010, 07:54 PM
A Fed bandwagon. Fancy that.

http://whatconsumesme.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/bandwagon.jpg

ApproachShot
08-22-2010, 07:55 PM
He does not need to defend those, he simply needs to pick up enough points by the end of wimbledon 2011.

He has the points lead within that time frame. He is back in form, his tactics are improving, hes healthy and hes very good on every surface. With his versatility and current consistency he does need to win many tournaments.

Sure, it does not matter how the points are accumulated (for instance he could make up with tournaments like Shanghai, Monte Carlo and Dubai) but I've commented already on how the ATP ranking points structure is heavily favoured towards those that make a few small runs in the big tournaments. As it happens, there is a big point difference between winning and being the runner-up. Federer will need to win tournaments to challenge for the number 1 spot - just merely making semis and finals consistently may not be enough.

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:57 PM
A Fed bandwagon. Fancy that.

my reasons support my conclussion. that does not mean it will happen, but how about responding to why you disagree with me.

tealeaves
08-22-2010, 07:59 PM
Let's talk about it when he defends AO 2011

mark73
08-22-2010, 07:59 PM
Sure, it does not matter how the points are accumulated (for instance he could make up with tournaments like Shanghai, Monte Carlo and Dubai) but I've commented already on how the ATP ranking points structure is heavily favoured towards those that make a few small runs in the big tournaments. As it happens, there is a big point difference between winning and being the runner-up. Federer will need to win tournaments to challenge for the number 1 spot - just merely making semis and finals consistently may not be enough.

true. But I did say he needs to win the odd tournamrnt. Say the us open and the AO. otherwise he can just be consistent. actually one slam and two master wins might be enough, if hes otherwise consistent.

careergrandslam
08-22-2010, 08:18 PM
nadal is a mug.

he is bleeding ranking points.

just when u thought this could be a long nadal run as a dominant player, he goes and mugs it up.

HKz
08-22-2010, 08:19 PM
Of course it is conceivable, but much too premature to say so.

Singularity
08-22-2010, 08:20 PM
nadal is a mug.

he is bleeding ranking points.

just when u thought this could be a long nadal run as a dominant player, he goes and mugs it up.
He's defended all his ranking points from last year.

Filo V.
08-22-2010, 08:20 PM
Too early to call.

guga2120
08-22-2010, 08:22 PM
Rafa, lost his #1 ranking b/c he hurt his knee in 2009. That is the only way Roger will get it back, is by bad decisions or bad luck by Rafa.

Filo V.
08-22-2010, 08:22 PM
nadal is a mug.

he is bleeding ranking points.

just when u thought this could be a long nadal run as a dominant player, he goes and mugs it up.

He had the same results as he did last year, SF and QF. But good to know you think the #1 in the world by a wide margin and winner of the last two slams is a mug. I wonder what that makes you?

Arkulari
08-22-2010, 08:28 PM
Rafa, lost his #1 ranking b/c he hurt his knee in 2009. That is the only way Roger will get it back, is by bad decisions or bad luck by Rafa.

you seem to forget one important thing: Roger can only win points in several tournaments, specially in HC (Doha, Dubai, IW, Miami), he only has to defend AO and the Madrid final in the first half of the year

HC can be Roger's friend, he can turn up in Shanghai and win points, show in Paris and win points, show in Stockholm and win points... ;)

I just want two more weeks, to break Sampras' record, the rest can go to Rafa :D

ossie
08-22-2010, 08:32 PM
i dont think he will get back to number one, his goal should be to win as many slams as possible from now on not to think about rankings

Michael Bluth
08-22-2010, 08:33 PM
Too early to tell.

I'm not even going to really think about it unless he wins the USO.

Infinity
08-23-2010, 02:43 AM
He has to have some big results on hard courts and Nadal to drop some of his clay results of this year.

By big results on HC, I mean 2 slams and a WTF or something equal.

Ibracadabra
08-23-2010, 03:59 AM
It can definately be done, if he stops mugging around in the clay court swing.

viruzzz
08-23-2010, 05:14 AM
I think 2011 is a Federer year.

latso
08-23-2010, 07:26 AM
You can't predict such things.

In a perfect situation Roger and Rafa will have a couple hundred points difference in 2011 during the clay

But there are injuries, form twists, new kids on the block, etc.

So u can't tell this.

The best way would be to win USO, AO and RG, but i blieve this would be hard. Especially AO :D