Will Nadal make semi's in Cincy? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Will Nadal make semi's in Cincy?

ORGASMATRON
08-15-2010, 06:06 PM
Yet again we saw this week that Nadal cant make the final of a hard court tourney to meet Roger. How can Roger ever improve his h2h with Nadal if Nadal only make clay finals? But now they are in the same half of Cincy. Do you think this time he will make it? I think Roger will probably make semis, unless he tanks to rest. But will Nadal get past Berdych?

ApproachShot
08-15-2010, 06:19 PM
You mention Berdych but remember that Nadal beat Berdych 6-4 7-5 at the Cincy QFs last year. Of course Berdych is playing better this season. However, he also lost 7 matches in a row to Rafa (including the Wimbledon final) and that may give the Spaniard the mental edge.

Federer has played well enough when it mattered to make his way to the final in Toronto so his game is at the level it needs to be in order to make it to the semis at Cincy. That could potentially mean a SF match with Nadal - excluding the TMC, this will be the first time since their RG semi in 2005 when they have played before the finals.

I honestly think both of them will make it. Moreover if they do it will be hard to pick a winner although I'd place the odds slightly in Federer's favour.

Certinfy
08-15-2010, 06:25 PM
Nadal has a pretty hard draw, I mean he clearly has the mental edge over Berdych as he's won like the last 17 sets in a row against him but on these type of courts Berdych could trouble him a lot if he plays well. Last year's QF between them two here is clearly no indication of anything even though Nadal probably played one of his best matches after coming back from injury, however Berdych and his tactics were horrible.

ORGASMATRON
08-15-2010, 06:28 PM
well berdych is a different player these days and he froze up in the wimby final so i wont take that too seriously. the hard court will favor him against nadal.

Certinfy
08-15-2010, 06:30 PM
well berdych is a different player these days and he froze up in the wimby final so i wont take that too seriously. the hard court will favor him against nadal.So true, and I doubt him losing 7 times in a row to Rafa will hurt his confidence a lot, hence he lost 8 times in a row to Roger and still managed to keep it together to beat him in Miami. We'll see anyway, Nadal has a possibly hard R2 match and Berdych has a possible hard R3 match.

ApproachShot
08-15-2010, 06:34 PM
well berdych is a different player these days and he froze up in the wimby final so i wont take that too seriously. the hard court will favor him against nadal.

Point taken. On the fast hard courts I'm sure this is the best potential opportunity that Berdych has got to beat Nadal for a while. But as you say, tactics will be important. While it is true that last year's circumstances are very different to this year Nadal still at least has the confidence that he can beat Berdych on hard courts. It's a similar sort of confidence I saw with Murray when he was playing Nadal - the fact that he had won their previous encounter on the surface in my opinion allowed him to hit more freely and aggressively, following the tactics that served him well in the Australian Open.


So true, and I doubt him losing 7 times in a row to Rafa will hurt his confidence a lot, hence he lost 8 times in a row to Roger and still managed to keep it together to beat him in Miami. We'll see anyway, Nadal has a possibly hard R2 match and Berdych has a possible hard R3 match.

That too is a fair point - I mean, Berdych certainly has nothing to lose and Nadal will be acutely aware of his adversary's successful season. But they both have to get there first and their respective draws are far from being cakewalks.

Sapeod
08-15-2010, 06:37 PM
Only Federer.

peribsen
08-15-2010, 06:47 PM
Yet again we saw this week that Nadal cant make the final of a hard court tourney to meet Roger. How can Roger ever improve his h2h with Nadal if Nadal only make clay finals? But now they are in the same half of Cincy. Do you think this time he will make it? I think Roger will probably make semis, unless he tanks to rest. But will Nadal get past Berdych?

Well, Nadal has made every single HC MS1000 SF since Cinci last year, that means 6 out of 6 (I include indoor hard Bercy), some of which were played during a career low on his game, so I see little reason to doubt he has a pretty good chance of doing it again. You always seem to forget that, although Nadal is far weaker on hard than on clay or grass, he is very consistent on HC, systematically making the top 8 (QF) and most times the top 4 (SF) in HC tournaments. Since Cincy last year, he has made 4,025 points on HC, which is not exactly chicken-feed.

BTW, I would think 4 Wimby finals on a row, wining 2 of them, was enough for you to stop saying he only makes finals on clay, don't you think?

Nadal will never have a favourable H2H against Fed on HC, same way Fed will never have a favourable one on clay, with grass still being pretty much doubtful (I'm talking about H2H, not overall results).

I feel it is a homage for Rafa that he is nr1 by such a wide margin even without being first rate on the surface on which more big tournaments are played, it's a sign of his really huge dominance on clay and grass.

Ben.
08-15-2010, 06:47 PM
More important to show some consistancy in his matches. He was too patchy this week, if he loses to Berdych in the quarters while playing poorly then there would be cause for some concern as he would have had plenty of matches to play himself into form.

To suggest the only way Federer doesn't make it is if he tanks is laughable. Granted he is looking better than he has for a while and is surely gaining confidence but today should tell us a bit about where he is at.

samanosuke
08-15-2010, 06:48 PM
Cincy probably has the fastest court in hole season so I doubt if Berdych is fit

ORGASMATRON
08-15-2010, 06:54 PM
Well, Nadal has made every single HC MS1000 SF since Cinci last year, that means 6 out of 6 (I include indoor hard Bercy), some of which were played during a career low on his game, so I see little reason to doubt he has a pretty good chance of doing it again. You always seem to forget that, although Nadal is far weaker on hard than on clay or grass, he is very consistent on HC, systematically making the top 8 (QF) and most times the top 4 (SF) in HC tournaments. Since Cincy last year, he has made 4,025 points on HC, which is not exactly chicken-feed.

BTW, I would think 4 Wimby finals on a row, wining 2 of them, was enough for you to stop saying he only makes finals on clay, don't you think?

Nadal will never have a favourable H2H against Fed on HC, same way Fed will never have a favourable one on clay, with grass still being pretty much doubtful (I'm talking about H2H, not overall results).

I feel it is a homage for Rafa that he is nr1 by such a wide margin even without being first rate on the surface on which more big tournaments are played, it's a sign of his really huge dominance on clay and grass.

yeah i didnt know that. its a pretty consistent record in the HC masters. but i also feel like berdych has a great shot. one thing is sure, nadal cant afford not to make semis if he is going to be taken very seriously as a USO favorite.

Clay Death
08-15-2010, 06:55 PM
Well, Nadal has made every single HC MS1000 SF since Cinci last year, that means 6 out of 6 (I include indoor hard Bercy), some of which were played during a career low on his game, so I see little reason to doubt he has a pretty good chance of doing it again. You always seem to forget that, although Nadal is far weaker on hard than on clay or grass, he is very consistent on HC, systematically making the top 8 (QF) and most times the top 4 (SF) in HC tournaments. Since Cincy last year, he has made 4,025 points on HC, which is not exactly chicken-feed.

BTW, I would think 4 Wimby finals on a row, wining 2 of them, was enough for you to stop saying he only makes finals on clay, don't you think?

Nadal will never have a favourable H2H against Fed on HC, same way Fed will never have a favourable one on clay, with grass still being pretty much doubtful (I'm talking about H2H, not overall results).

I feel it is a homage for Rafa that he is nr1 by such a wide margin even without being first rate on the surface on which more big tournaments are played, it's a sign of his really huge dominance on clay and grass.

excellent post old sport.

peribsen
08-15-2010, 07:11 PM
Oooops, made a mistake, I said Nadal had made 4,025 points on HC since Cinci last year, but it really was 'only' 3,810 (F in Shanghai and Doha; SF in Cinci, USO, Beijing, Bercy, IW, Miami and Canada; QF in AO).

More or less the same, but just for the record.

Guy Haines
08-15-2010, 07:25 PM
Nadal has a pretty hard draw, I mean he clearly has the mental edge over Berdych as he's won like the last 17 sets in a row against him but on these type of courts Berdych could trouble him a lot if he plays well. Last year's QF between them two here is clearly no indication of anything even though Nadal probably played one of his best matches after coming back from injury, however Berdych and his tactics were horrible.

Berdych has also beaten Nadal in Cincinnati.

If the two play this year at the tournament it has the potential be a good match, and a very important match for both in terms of what they bring to the USO.

TennisOnWood
08-15-2010, 07:46 PM
This is by far his worst Masters 1000 tournament and I think that 10th consecutive 1/2 will be fantastic (also,with that he will keep his points and in that way he will soon be sure for Number 1 in the end of the year)

born_on_clay
08-15-2010, 08:24 PM
my prediction: he will lose to Berdych in QF

Serenidad
08-15-2010, 08:25 PM
Berdych is red hot and has a win over Brands, so it doesn't look likely.

Certinfy
08-15-2010, 08:43 PM
Berdych is red hot and has a win over Brands, so it doesn't look likely.I bet you wake up at 3am in the morning with bloodshot eyes thinking about how Brands lost those 2 points at 6-4 6-7 *5-4 30-30 against Berdych. :lol:

Serenidad
08-15-2010, 08:44 PM
I bet you wake up at 3am in the morning with bloodshot eyes thinking about how Brands lost those 2 points at 6-4 6-7 *5-4 30-30 against Berdych. :lol:

No I am over it, but that was Brands tournament to win. Nadal would have not stood a chance.

Certinfy
08-15-2010, 09:27 PM
No I am over it, but that was Brands tournament to win. Nadal would have not stood a chance.He would of lost in straights to Federer on Court 1 :wavey:

Serenidad
08-15-2010, 09:35 PM
He would of lost in straights to Federer on Court 1 :wavey:

Federer would have lost presumably in 4 like he did to Berdych.

Juanako
08-15-2010, 09:41 PM
my prediction: he will lose to Berdych in QF

Same here. That's my prediction in the ATP Fantasy game.

I think only Roger will reach the semis here, where he'll lose to Berdych, who I think is more motivated and all around in better form.

pray-for-palestine-and-israel
08-15-2010, 09:42 PM
Nadal is a good fast hard court player but great he is not

too many guys can destroy him on a hard court

case in point

del potro, 2,2,2- i mean it doesnt get worse- thats a beat down

but federer took del potro to 5, shoulda won

thats the diff

thats why i can see fed getting to a semi (then again he could go out R1 cos he only tries during slam week)

but i cant see rafa making the SF unless there is major chokeage in his draw

Certinfy
08-15-2010, 09:54 PM
Berdych has also beaten Nadal in Cincinnati.

If the two play this year at the tournament it has the potential be a good match, and a very important match for both in terms of what they bring to the USO.Yeah and the scoreline was really tight as well 6-7 6-2 7-6. Should be another tight match, and Berdych is a lot better now. Either way these are the courts where Berdych's game can reach its peak.

Jomp1
08-15-2010, 10:03 PM
Really hard to predict if he's going to get past Berdych. He played lower ranked opponents that he close to always beat until the semis in Toronto and then got routined by Murray. A decent form Berdych almost beat Fed who seemingly is in pretty good form. I have Tomas making the finals in the upper half in Cinci.

Filo V.
08-15-2010, 11:54 PM
He has a pretty tough draw, it depends if he continues to play like shit as he did in Toronto. If he does, then he could be defeated. However, I don't expect him to play as poorly as he did in Canada with some match practice under his belt, so I'll say yes.

Mechlan
08-16-2010, 12:30 AM
He has a pretty tough draw, it depends if he continues to play like shit as he did in Toronto. If he does, then he could be defeated. However, I don't expect him to play as poorly as he did in Canada with some match practice under his belt, so I'll say yes.

Nadal didn't play like shit in Canada. He played worse early in the week, but had a pretty decent match against Murray. The Cincinnati surface is lower bouncing than Toronto, it'll be interesting to see how he does, his draw is decently tough.

Sophocles
08-16-2010, 12:35 AM
Not sure he'll beat Berdych. If he does, it's Fed's best chance to beat Nadal on an outdoor hard court & if it were the Federer of 3-6 years ago I'd put money on him doing it. Now, however....

Clay Death
08-16-2010, 12:40 AM
i am not sure clay warrior is putting too much stock in cincy. he wants to make damn certain that he is healthy, relatively fit, fresh, and ready when he arrives in new york.

it will be a blessing if he is derailed here in cincy in the quarters or semis. it will leave his mental and physical reserves intact. there is always the practrice court.

ORGASMATRON
08-16-2010, 12:44 AM
Really hard to predict if he's going to get past Berdych. He played lower ranked opponents that he close to always beat until the semis in Toronto and then got routined by Murray. A decent form Berdych almost beat Fed who seemingly is in pretty good form. I have Tomas making the finals in the upper half in Cinci.

thats the phrase i was looking for ;)

He has a pretty tough draw, it depends if he continues to play like shit as he did in Toronto. If he does, then he could be defeated. However, I don't expect him to play as poorly as he did in Canada with some match practice under his belt, so I'll say yes.

he played well in toronto.

Nadal is a good fast hard court player but great he is not

too many guys can destroy him on a hard court

case in point

del potro, 2,2,2- i mean it doesnt get worse- thats a beat down

but federer took del potro to 5, shoulda won

thats the diff

thats why i can see fed getting to a semi (then again he could go out R1 cos he only tries during slam week)

but i cant see rafa making the SF unless there is major chokeage in his draw

true, you never know with roger outside slams these days, but i favor him to make at least semis.

Filo V.
08-16-2010, 01:02 AM
Some of you think he played decently in Toronto? For his standards, I was very unimpressed by his level. Only parts of the Kohlschreiber match, and the middle of the second set v. Murray was when I thought he was at a decent level. He played like someone who was rusty and needed matches to get better, so I think that will happen. Really, it doesn't matter much how Nadal does at Cincinnati because his focus is for New York. He just needs more matches.

The courts at Toronto suit his game better than Cincinnati so that won't help matters.

Johnny Groove
08-16-2010, 01:10 AM
The problem with Nadal on hardcourts is that his movement is not nearly as crisp as it is on clay or grass. He appears to be not as quick. That, combined with the court speed.

Filo V.
08-16-2010, 01:13 AM
The problem with Nadal on hardcourts is that his movement is not nearly as crisp as it is on clay or grass. He appears to be not as quick. That, combined with the court speed.

Very true. He's a powerful runner, and on these grittier courts, he sort of is in quick sand with his movement. Also, his footwork was plain bad in Toronto in all of the matches, and generally is an issue, much of it caused by the speed of the courts, which do not allow him to get into position to hit his shots. Also sometimes he reaches at balls instead of attacking them with forward movement, which is his clay court mentality coming through.

christallh24
08-17-2010, 03:03 AM
Well, Nadal has made every single HC MS1000 SF since Cinci last year, that means 6 out of 6 (I include indoor hard Bercy), some of which were played during a career low on his game, so I see little reason to doubt he has a pretty good chance of doing it again. You always seem to forget that, although Nadal is far weaker on hard than on clay or grass, he is very consistent on HC, systematically making the top 8 (QF) and most times the top 4 (SF) in HC tournaments. Since Cincy last year, he has made 4,025 points on HC, which is not exactly chicken-feed.

BTW, I would think 4 Wimby finals on a row, wining 2 of them, was enough for you to stop saying he only makes finals on clay, don't you think?

Nadal will never have a favourable H2H against Fed on HC, same way Fed will never have a favourable one on clay, with grass still being pretty much doubtful (I'm talking about H2H, not overall results).

I feel it is a homage for Rafa that he is nr1 by such a wide margin even without being first rate on the surface on which more big tournaments are played, it's a sign of his really huge dominance on clay and grass.

Great post! But his haters don't seem to have any comprehensive skills. Never learn. For a player playing on his worse surface, he doesn't do to bad in results.

Blackbriar
08-17-2010, 10:03 AM
yes he will, but his draw is really ugly:
Dent > Llodra > Berdych > Federer > Murray

zeleni
08-17-2010, 10:17 AM
Both will make SF.