Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside) [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

OldSilentHill
08-11-2010, 05:47 PM
Well, I dont know if anyone noticed, but Bwin is on the Nalbandwagon as most of this forum is :confused:

And is for the Us Open. How strange and logic this can be?



US Open - New York (USA) - Men
Winner

Ganador del torneo
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 2.20
Roger Federer (SUI) 3.10
Andy Murray (GBR) 6.95
David Nalbandian (ARG) 10.00
Robin Soderling (SWE) 12.00
Juan Martín Del Potro(ARG) 12.00
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 15.00
Tomas Berdych (CZE) 17.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)21.00
Andy Roddick (USA) 30.00
Marin Cilic (CRO) 30.00
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 40.00
Sam Querrey (USA) 43.00
Nicolás Almagro (ESP) 44.00
John Isner (USA) 45.00
Ernests Gulbis (LAT) 50.00
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 55.00
David Ferrer (ESP) 70.00
Gael Monfils (FRA) 70.00
Juergen Melzer (AUT) 72.00
Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 75.00
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 130.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 130.00
Mikhail Youhzny (RUS) 135.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 140.00
Feliciano López (ESP) 150.00
Albert Montańés (ESP) 150.00
Radek Stepanek (CZE) 150.00
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 160.00
Gilles Simon (FRA) 175.00
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 180.00
Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 190.00
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) 190.00
Fernando González (CHI) 200.00
Juan Mónaco (ARG) 250.00

Ad Wim
08-11-2010, 05:53 PM
4th favourite is an absolute joke ofcourse. Maybe 10th or 15th but defo not 4th. Let's just first see how his body holds up. I don't think he'll manage two long 5 setters in a row.

ORGASMATRON
08-11-2010, 06:03 PM
even if dave wins the USO his run wont last. he is not a consistent player, and therefor probably has no chance to win the USO. no never know for sure though.

Dyraise
08-11-2010, 06:53 PM
Juan Martín Del Potro (ARG) 12.00
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

philosophicalarf
08-11-2010, 08:16 PM
Since bwin closes the accounts of anyone who wins, inevitably their prices will be wonky - you're not getting smart money there.

Pinnacle have:

Nadal 3.65
Fed 3.90
Murray 6.52
Djoko 16.52
Soderling 19.52
Berdy 20.48
Nalbandian 22.00
Roddick 24.53



wrt tsonga/delpot, they take longer to drift downward with conventional books, cos there's no option to bet against them. Makes little difference though, unless they're one of the top favourites.

Frooty_Bazooty
08-11-2010, 08:27 PM
bwin are idiots, JMDP being at 12/1 is evidence for that alone

Paddypower is a good one, they've got Nalby at 20/1 - http://www.paddypower.com/bet/tennis/mens-us-open

Jomp1
08-11-2010, 08:32 PM
Since bwin closes the accounts of anyone who wins, inevitably their prices will be wonky - you're not getting smart money there.

Pinnacle have:

Nadal 3.65
Fed 3.90
Murray 6.52
Djoko 16.52
Soderling 19.52
Berdy 20.48
Nalbandian 22.00
Roddick 24.53



wrt tsonga/delpot, they take longer to drift downward with conventional books, cos there's no option to bet against them. Makes little difference though, unless they're one of the top favourites.

Pinnacle's odds make far more sense, that's for sure. But then again Bwin is a beginner's sportsbook.

Ibracadabra
08-11-2010, 08:36 PM
Nalbandian was 100/1 just over a week ago, needless to say i got a piece of that action.

Helevorn
08-11-2010, 08:36 PM
bet365's odds right now:

Roger Federer 3.50
Rafael Nadal 3.50
Andrew Murray 5.00
Novak Djokovic 10.00
Robin Soderling 13.00
Tomas Berdych 15.00
Juan Martin Del Potro 15.00
Andy Roddick 17.00
David Nalbandian 21.00
Marin Cilic 26.00
Nikolay Davydenko 34.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 41.00
Fernando Verdasco 51.00
Ernests Gulbis 67.00
Mardy Fish 67.00
Sam Querrey 67.00
John Isner 67.00
Lleyton Hewitt 81.00
Richard Gasquet 101.00
Fernando Gonzalez 101.00
Gael Monfils 101.00
David Ferrer 126.00
Marcos Baghdatis 126.00
James Blake 151.00
Ivo Karlovic 151.00
Stanislas Wawrinka 151.00
Mikhail Youzhny 151.00
Gilles Simon 151.00
Ivan Ljubicic 151.00
Tommy Haas 151.00
Radek Stepanek 201.00
Viktor Troicki 201.00
Juan Monaco 201.00
Nicolas Almagro 201.00
Jurgen Melzer 201.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber 251.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero 251.00
Tommy Robredo 301.00
Jeremy Chardy 301.00

Fed=ATPTourkilla
08-11-2010, 08:38 PM
21 for Nalby looks good odds to me.

Helevorn
08-11-2010, 08:41 PM
21 for Nalby looks good odds to me.

I agree. 20-22 are good odds for him right now, 12 definitely not

Ibracadabra
08-11-2010, 08:44 PM
Did nobody catch him before the nalbandwagon was in full flow like me?

dombrfc
08-11-2010, 11:05 PM
Did nobody catch him before the nalbandwagon was in full flow like me?

aye, 75/1 at skybet.

syc23
08-11-2010, 11:08 PM
There's no chance fat Dave has a hope in hell of winning the USO - those New York burgers and pizzas will be too tempting

OldSilentHill
08-12-2010, 07:51 PM
Updated Bwin bets for the US Open :eek:


US Open - New York (USA) - Mens

Winner

Rafael Nadal (ESP) 2.20
Roger Federer (SUI) 3.10
David Nalbandian (ARG) 5.00
Andy Murray (GBR) 6.80
Juan Martín Del Potro (ARG) 12.00
Robin Soderling (SWE) 15.00
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 16.00
Tomas Berdych (CZE) 17.00
Andy Roddick (USA) 34.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 40.00
Sam Querrey (USA) 43.00
Nicolás Almagro (ESP) 44.00
John Isner (USA) 45.00
Ernests Gulbis (LAT) 50.00
Marin Cilic (CRO) 50.00
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 50.00
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 55.00
Gael Monfils (FRA) 70.00
Juergen Melzer (AUT) 72.00
Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 75.00
David Ferrer (ESP) 80.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 130.00
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 130.00
Mikhail Youhzny (RUS) 135.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 140.00
Feliciano López (ESP) 150.00
Radek Stepanek (CZE) 150.00
Albert Montańés (ESP) 150.00
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 160.00
Gilles Simon (FRA) 175.00
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 180.00
Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 190.00
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) 190.00
Fernando González (CHI) 200.00

I´m really wondering if Bwin is not actually making the best move here. While the other bet sites are less bandwagonners, maybe they have some % on loosing money with Nalby and Bwin doesnt want to take that risk. :confused::confused::confused:

Maybe they want to focus in another players for their bussiness.

KeiNishikoriCro
08-12-2010, 08:00 PM
I will took Radek "the beast" Stepanek ...150.00 :) :) :)

MIMIC
08-12-2010, 08:24 PM
How the hell is del Potro even listed? :confused:

OldSilentHill
08-12-2010, 08:39 PM
How the hell is del Potro even listed? :confused:

Del Pony is almost confirmed, so they just listed him.

Serenidad
08-12-2010, 11:04 PM
Does anyone have the odds for Daniel Brands?

BigJohn
08-13-2010, 01:02 AM
Cash on Nalbandian FTW @ USO2010 = Soon be lost cash.

No matter the amount or odds.

Clydey
08-13-2010, 01:10 AM
Sheer stupidity. Does no one remember the end of 2007 and Nalbandian's failure to do anything of note in 2008? He's gone on a tear before and has failed to capitalise on it.

Stensland
08-13-2010, 01:29 AM
he's probably not gonna win it but he'll surely take some scalps. i was kind of tempted to get in on this at 10.00 but 5.00 is nothing but a big joke. that would be mine to lose.

*edit: pretty weird to see a non-talent like melzer at 70 while someone like kohlschreiber's at 135 (!).

Action Jackson
08-13-2010, 01:49 AM
Of course.

BigJohn
08-13-2010, 08:56 PM
As it turns out, not at all.

cardio
08-13-2010, 09:36 PM
Even @200 would be worthless. When was last time 28.y.o. not in very good good shape, just coming back from extended injury break player won his first slam ?

Fed=ATPTourkilla
08-13-2010, 09:38 PM
Ivanisevic was older.

dombrfc
08-13-2010, 09:40 PM
Does anyone have the odds for Daniel Brands?
Ill personally give you 1,000,000/1?

Ibracadabra
08-13-2010, 10:46 PM
lol people here don't even understand odds. Whether nalbandian wins or not, people like myself got him @ 100 which is fantastic value.

BigJohn
08-13-2010, 10:53 PM
lol people here don't even understand odds. Whether nalbandian wins or not, people like myself got him @ 100 which is fantastic value.

Enlighten me then. Is a losing bet with fantastic value more enjoyable than a losing bet with meh value?

Ibracadabra
08-13-2010, 11:06 PM
Who are you to say he will not win? if gambling was as you and other here describe we would all be millionaires.

BigJohn
08-14-2010, 05:19 AM
I would just like an answer to an hypothetical question. Let's say the unimaginable happens and Nalbandian does not win the USO. So whatever amount of money you put on Nalbandian has now vanished, it's gone.

Now would the loss of that money be affected in any way shape or form by the odds? Would it be more satisfying to lose that money if the odds are 95.00 rather than 10.00? Just curious.

The outcome looks pretty much the same to me. Money is gone, Naldandian will not win the USO.

Serenidad
08-14-2010, 05:25 AM
he's probably not gonna win it but he'll surely take some scalps. i was kind of tempted to get in on this at 10.00 but 5.00 is nothing but a big joke. that would be mine to lose.

*edit: pretty weird to see a non-talent like melzer at 70 while someone like kohlschreiber's at 135 (!).

Melzer has plenty of talent. That is why Melzer has achieved better results than Kohlschreiber.

Ill personally give you 1,000,000/1?

Sure we can do that. I don't know why you underestimate Daniel.

gusavo
08-14-2010, 11:22 AM
Nalbandian was 100/1 just over a week ago, needless to say i got a piece of that action.
how is it needless to say?
is it because this player, who happends to be your favourite, is always underrated with other people?

lol people here don't even understand odds. Whether nalbandian wins or not, people like myself got him @ 100 which is fantastic value.
LOL dont understand odds. and you think you have proof that 100 was fantastic value

I would just like an answer to an hypothetical question. Let's say the unimaginable happens and Nalbandian does not win the USO. So whatever amount of money you put on Nalbandian has now vanished, it's gone.

Now would the loss of that money be affected in any way shape or form by the odds? Would it be more satisfying to lose that money if the odds are 95.00 rather than 10.00? Just curious.

The outcome looks pretty much the same to me. Money is gone, Naldandian will not win the USO.
LOL

so if you would just answer this question one time, how much money have you layed for nalbandian to not win us open? youre going to be so rich. you know you can do that right?

cardio
08-14-2010, 12:01 PM
lol people here don't even understand odds. Whether nalbandian wins or not, people like myself got him @ 100 which is fantastic value.

I cant see how it is value . It would take huge miracle him to win it or even to reach into SF or F when you can green out of it with good profit.
He is overweight, not very fit for long tournmament with exhausting best of 5 matches and he is far from his "October 2007 indoor titles" form. Also slam is not a one week sprint , it is marathon.
He had nice little run while it lasted, but seriously, who he beat during this run ? Out of form Cilic, another donut-guy Baggy , "you can brake me 6 times in match and I brake you 5" Ferrer, struggling Soda... When he got first quality opponent , he folded like a cheap tent.

Unless you intend to green out of it and lay Nalby in each round where he has remotely dangerous opponent, your @100 is most likely bookies profit.

nalbyfan
08-14-2010, 01:38 PM
No need to be skin an bones to win a GS (Simon never won one..) Overweigh is not a problem for Nalby, it never stopped him from winning. He won a lot of 5 setters with extra kilos. He won Madrid and Bercy 2007 with extra kilos. He recently defeated fit players like Ferrer or Cilic, fitness has nothing to do with it, everything is motivation. When he's motivated (like in DC) he's on fire, when he's not, he plays very bad, that's all

Ibracadabra
08-14-2010, 02:03 PM
Whether nalbandian wins it or not, i got the value. The bookies now rate him as fourth favourite to win the us open, and if i could get odds of the fourth favourite @ 100/1 i have the value ;)

Nalrodd
08-14-2010, 02:22 PM
The bandwagon is just a logical consequence, the same it was and will be with tons of other players. People want a taste of the fame and want to look decent by siding with the current great performer while the memento lasts. The odds drop/rise comes naturally, that's pure bussiness.

As for the USO, now, while I would find it astounding and wonderful if he won, I don't really see that happening. I think he will run out of steam somewhere round the quarterfinals. If he keeps up the good game and doesn't improve his fitness. If he does, we're on for a good run I think. Still tho', wish him the best of luck. He should have had one less cheesburger and one more consistency. :banana:

I say that as a long time Nalbandian fan.

Action Jackson
08-14-2010, 02:23 PM
Unless you intend to green out of it and lay Nalby in each round where he has remotely dangerous opponent, your @100 is most likely bookies profit.

Goes to the bookies Christmas party.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
08-14-2010, 02:30 PM
It is right that 100-1 is great value because the odds have dropped substantially. The people who are disagreeing with this are completely wrong.

Anyone who got Nalby at 100-1 can easily lay him to hedge their position and guarantee themselves some money.

So for example:

- I bet $10 on Nalby to win the USO at 100-1.

- Now that the odds have fallen I will accept a bet of $20 (on one of the internet sites) for Nalby to win the US Open (i.e. I will lay him).

Outcome 1: Nalby wins the US Open. I win $1000 on bet 1 and lose $400 on bet 2. Overall I win $600.

Outcome 2: Nalby does not win the US Open. I lose my stake money on bet 1 and gain the other person's stake money on bet 2, netting out at $10.

You can manipulate the numbers to get the result you want, depending on whether you really believe he's going to do it. But the point stands that anyone who got Nalby at 100-1 has done extremely well and can do even better if the odds keep dropping, even if he doesn't actually win.

ORGASMATRON
08-14-2010, 02:35 PM
i dont care for this bandwagon term but nalbandian hit a a wall against murray. he had simply played one too many matches. anyone who couldnt see that has never played tennis on a competitive level. however im really happy for all the matches he has shown clearly that he will be very dangerous at cincy and the USO.

gusavo
08-16-2010, 04:22 PM
Unless you intend to green out of it and lay Nalby in each round where he has remotely dangerous opponent, your @100 is most likely bookies profit.
lol, how would that help
are you saying 100 times the money is not worth it right now? then why arent you laying odds then? youll get takers at way less.

judging from theyre analysing and thought processes, it seems to me they pretty much wont get better bets than betting at random, so theyll be getting almost all their bets in with negative return with a few positives ones. so the 100 bet was very likely not profitable, while having it now is highly profitable

Whether nalbandian wins it or not, i got the value. The bookies now rate him as fourth favourite to win the us open, and if i could get odds of the fourth favourite @ 100/1 i have the value ;)
thats not how it works, and no they do not

The odds drop/rise comes naturally, that's pure bussiness.

so then why arent you making tons of free money by constantly betting against the flow of players popularity?

But the point stands that anyone who got Nalby at 100-1 has done extremely well and can do even better if the odds keep dropping, even if he doesn't actually win.
no, they are in a great position. theres nothing that says that theyve played well