Does Federer's loss in fact increase Rafa's chance of winning the title? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Does Federer's loss in fact increase Rafa's chance of winning the title?

guptaji
06-30-2010, 10:02 PM
That's what McEnroe and his fellow commentator thought. That also seems to be the popular notion. For instance, all betting sites are now tipping Nadal to win the title. But I beg to differ. I think Nadal would have had a huge edge over Fed if they met in the final. Even if he wins against Murray (HUGE "if"), he is less likely to win the title than if he played Fed. IMHO.

Commander Data
06-30-2010, 10:22 PM
If we look at the facts Federer is the player that gave Nadal the most problems in Wimbledon. I think Fed would be the most dangerous to Rafa although I agree with you that Nadal has the edge over Fed in Slam Finals.
But what does it matter anyway, Fed is out.

ORGASMATRON
06-30-2010, 10:27 PM
the answer youre looking for is yes, very much so.

Sunset of Age
06-30-2010, 10:29 PM
No. Rafa wouldn't have had any problem whatsoever with Federer, the way he has been playing all throughout this tournament. I can well imagine that Rafa is in fact a bit disappointed that he won't meet him now... if he gets there himself of course, it's still not a security.

Andi-M
06-30-2010, 11:14 PM
I find that weird also, Fed would have been 2nd favorite if a fedal final had occured because nadal knows how to beat fed in GS finals.

jenanun
06-30-2010, 11:17 PM
no..... nadal biggest obstacle was never federer.....

Sunset of Age
06-30-2010, 11:17 PM
I find that weird also, Fed would have been 2nd favorite if a fedal final had occured because nadal knows how to beat fed in GS finals.

And most certainly THIS Federer, who isn't a shadow of the guy he met in the finals here in 2006, 2007 & 2008! :o

Topspin Forehand
06-30-2010, 11:18 PM
Djokovic is a much tougher matchup for Nadal.

andylovesaustin
06-30-2010, 11:21 PM
That's what McEnroe and his fellow commentator thought. That also seems to be the popular notion. For instance, all betting sites are now tipping Nadal to win the title. But I beg to differ. I think Nadal would have had a huge edge over Fed if they met in the final. Even if he wins against Murray (HUGE "if"), he is less likely to win the title than if he played Fed. IMHO.

Well I guess it's because Roger was defending champion. But I agree, considering their h2h, Rafa would be favored against Roger, I think.. I'd pick him over Roger.

Now....IF Rafa beats Murray, then he'd be up against...either Birdie or Nole, right? Hmmm...

Yeah, I think Rafa's road is more difficult actually now that Roger is out.

Sunset of Age
06-30-2010, 11:22 PM
Djokovic is a much tougher matchup for Nadal.

I happen to doubt that, but a Berdych in top form surely is.

Topspin Forehand
06-30-2010, 11:25 PM
I happen to doubt that, but a Berdych in top form surely is.
Nadal always beats Berdych these days. Djokovic usually serves well against Nadal. The main thing though is he reads Nadal's serve better than anyone else.

Goldenoldie
06-30-2010, 11:27 PM
I believe that the winner of Nadal/Murray will be a strong favourite against Berdych/Djokovic.

Sunset of Age
06-30-2010, 11:27 PM
Nadal always beats Berdych these days. Djokovic usually serves well against Nadal. The main thing though is he reads Nadal's serve better than anyone else.

Djokovic already had breathing troubles earlier this week. And Nadal 'always' beating Berdych? Watch out man, the same thing was said about Federer not that long ago, and this Berdych isn't the same guy of a year ago anymore.
'Always' and 'never' are words that shouldn't be used in match prediction threads, unless a player has already ended his career.

lazybear
06-30-2010, 11:28 PM
That's what McEnroe and his fellow commentator thought. That also seems to be the popular notion. For instance, all betting sites are now tipping Nadal to win the title. But I beg to differ. I think Nadal would have had a huge edge over Fed if they met in the final. Even if he wins against Murray (HUGE "if"), he is less likely to win the title than if he played Fed. IMHO.

I agree with you, it's logical, from a tennis fan standpoint, but it's not how betting sites works.

Ivanatis
06-30-2010, 11:29 PM
Murray losing in the SF would increase Rafa's chances

Orka_n
06-30-2010, 11:29 PM
I think Berdych is more dangerous to Nadal than this avarage form Federer is. So no.

Topspin Forehand
06-30-2010, 11:30 PM
Djokovic already had breathing troubles earlier this week. And Nadal 'always' beating Berdych? Watch out man, the same thing was said about Federer not that long ago, and this Berdych isn't the same guy of a year ago anymore.
'Always' and 'never' are words that shouldn't be used in match prediction threads, unless a player has already ended his career.
Well I think Nadal is in Berdych's head. He beat him in Miami and Cincinnati. Both in straight sets. Berdych had trouble with Nadal's serve. Djokovic attacks that serve better than anyone else. Watch their past matches and see what I mean. He destroyed Nadal at Cincinnati and the year end championships. Just not a good matchup for Rafa.

allpro
06-30-2010, 11:30 PM
Djokovic is a much tougher matchup for Nadal.

not on grass.

A_Skywalker
06-30-2010, 11:31 PM
It increases his chances, because Federer beat him 2 times in finals at Wimbledon, Rafa won only 1 so yes. Although I think he would beat FEd again this year if Fed was in the final.

Topspin Forehand
06-30-2010, 11:33 PM
not on grass.
At this point, the courts are playing a lot like a hardcourt/clay. Hardcourt bounces with claydirt for movement. The courts aren't that slippery now. Djokovic should be able to play his game like he does on clay.

Topspin Forehand
06-30-2010, 11:35 PM
It increases his chances, because Federer beat him 2 times in finals at Wimbledon, Rafa won only 1 so yes. Although I think he would beat FEd again this year if Fed was in the final.
Federer isn't the same player he was back then. Nadal was hoping for Federer so he could exploit that matchup again.

Johnny Groove
06-30-2010, 11:36 PM
Federer's loss increases everyone's chance of winning the title.

allpro
06-30-2010, 11:42 PM
At this point, the courts are playing a lot like a hardcourt/clay. Hardcourt bounces with claydirt for movement. The courts aren't that slippery now. Djokovic should be able to play his game like he does on clay.

rafa's movement is superior on both grass and clay.

Serenidad
06-30-2010, 11:43 PM
Nadal was always going to beat Federer, sadly. Federer just can't mentally hold it together because Nadal is so determined to get out of his pig pen. He's a bad farmer.

Brands will slaughter Nadal when they meet.

NadalSharapova
07-01-2010, 12:19 AM
not really changed anything for nadal, it increases the other players' chances though

Persimmon
07-01-2010, 12:23 AM
Who was the last player Rafa lost to at Wimbledon not called Roger Federer?

brent-o
07-01-2010, 12:25 AM
Given the long, drawn-out close finals they've had, I think for sure Nadal is relieved that Federer's out. It increases his chances a bit, but he still has two tough opponents ahead of him.

MIMIC
07-01-2010, 12:30 AM
Doesn't it decrease? I think Nadal is motivated to reach a final and beat Federer since he does it so well. That H2H (especially in Grand Slam finals) is a psychological weapon for him; he wields it confidently. With Fed gone, things can be a little more surprising.

I think, of course, this is a lot more relevant when Nadal is pretty much already written into a final.

guptaji
07-01-2010, 12:31 AM
I agree with you, it's logical, from a tennis fan standpoint, but it's not how betting sites works.

Which is funny because if I were to bet that 'Nadal would not win the title' (not sure if that's even an option anywhere), I will make more money now (higher odds) than I would have made prior to Fed losing. But it feels like I should make less money because now it is more likely that Nadal would not win the title. Anyways, it is all in theory -- living where I live, I can't bet even if I wanted to.

KarlyM
07-01-2010, 01:23 AM
Not really. I think it's more like it slightly increased Djokovic's chances of making the final (but Berdych will still be a challenge).

Har-Tru
07-01-2010, 01:58 AM
Djokovic is a much tougher matchup for Nadal.

Right now, I agree.

Har-Tru
07-01-2010, 01:59 AM
Who was the last player Rafa lost to at Wimbledon not called Roger Federer?

Gilles Müller.

Manequin75
07-01-2010, 10:04 PM
If we look at the facts Federer is the player that gave Nadal the most problems in Wimbledon. I think Fed would be the most dangerous to Rafa although I agree with you that Nadal has the edge over Fed in Slam Finals.
But what does it matter anyway, Fed is out.

as soon as it was known to Rafa on the scoreboard that fed was beaten he turned the match around against Sod. Until then he was down 5-0 in the first set. Fed would have been the favorite - he has beaten Rafa twice in wimbleodn finals and only lost very narrowly. I agree with JMAC that fed going out will make Rafa's job easier.

Manequin75
07-01-2010, 10:06 PM
No. Rafa wouldn't have had any problem whatsoever with Federer, the way he has been playing all throughout this tournament. I can well imagine that Rafa is in fact a bit disappointed that he won't meet him now... if he gets there himself of course, it's still not a security.

rafa disappointed he wont meet fed? U kidding me? This aint Roland Garros. Rafa won a close one against Fed and lost twice prior to that. What if JesusFed had turned up in the finals on sunday? Rafa would have lost but I think rafa takes out JesusMurray, JesusBerdych and JesusDjkovich.

born_on_clay
07-01-2010, 10:08 PM
nahhh, Rafa loves to play against mightyFED

Manequin75
07-01-2010, 10:13 PM
Well I guess it's because Roger was defending champion. But I agree, considering their h2h, Rafa would be favored against Roger, I think.. I'd pick him over Roger.

Now....IF Rafa beats Murray, then he'd be up against...either Birdie or Nole, right? Hmmm...

Yeah, I think Rafa's road is more difficult actually now that Roger is out.

Birdie or Nole will be tough for rafa than fed in a wimbledon final? A first time finalist will take it to Rafa more than a six time champion?. You guys are assuming fed will play crap all the time now because he has been playing badly. If guys like Djko and Murray could find form suddenly in this tournament, is there no chance the best ever would also be bale to do that on the surface he lovee the most in the tournament he loves the most. Rafa was so glad fed is out he was playing soccer today with tennis ball on the tennis court in practice. The trophy is in the bag now. Be sure to book a spot in your living rooms watching the trophy being bitten on sunday on tv. :wavey:

Certinfy
07-01-2010, 10:18 PM
rafa disappointed he wont meet fed? U kidding me? This aint Roland Garros. Rafa won a close one against Fed and lost twice prior to that. What if JesusFed had turned up in the finals on sunday? Rafa would have lost but I think rafa takes out JesusMurray, JesusBerdych and JesusDjkovich.
If Berdych, Murray or Djokovic play their best, Nadal has no chance.

Manequin75
07-01-2010, 10:20 PM
If Berdych, Murray or Djokovic play their best, Nadal has no chance.

lol. You will learn very quickly this weekend.

Il Primo Uomo
07-01-2010, 10:21 PM
Nope, it's the other way around since Fido is his bottom bitch

Certinfy
07-01-2010, 10:21 PM
How? It's not like either are going to play their best, but if they were to, Rafa would have no chance.

Manequin75
07-01-2010, 10:28 PM
How? It's not like either are going to play their best, but if they were to, Rafa would have no chance.

already giving up on on your guys even before the match began?

Persimmon
07-02-2010, 12:43 AM
Fed would have been the favorite - he has beaten Rafa twice in wimbleodn finals and only lost very narrowly.

Agreed. Rafa barely beat the GOAT at Wimbledon 9-7 in the fifth set and after a lot of Rafa choking in that 2008 final. :wavey:

nahhh, Rafa loves to play against mightyFED

Not at Wimbledon finals. Almost lost 3 Wimbledon finals to the GOAT. Looks to me like Rafa respects the GOAT too much when he is playing him at Wimbledon finals. Like he doesn't believe he could, should beat Fed at Wimbledon at all:wavey:

Rafahólico
07-02-2010, 01:43 AM
Not really, Rafa totally owns Fed.
6-2 in GS finals and one semifinal against Fed, includes victories in GS finals on three different surfaces.
Fed owns a record 16 GS titles, but in H2H match ups, Rafa has owned Fed.

I'm not saying Rafa prefer to play against Fed, but He knows him very well :devil: