Who has the better chance to win wimbledon? Rafa or Fed. [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Who has the better chance to win wimbledon? Rafa or Fed.

raahaat7
06-07-2010, 07:18 PM
Rafa looks in ominous form. Are we heading towards a 2008 repeat?

Pirata.
06-07-2010, 07:38 PM
It's been a while since he's played actual matches on grass (aside from two exos against Stan and Lleyton last year) so we'll see. He's always been amazing on clay, but grass is still a different surface and there are top players who have much more potential to challenge him here.

Jills
06-07-2010, 07:52 PM
Rafa, obviously.

If it's a Fedal final (god I hope not), there's no way Fed is beating Rafa. Fed's form is 100 times worse than at Wimbledon 2008 and Rafa is brimming with confidence.

Arkulari
06-07-2010, 07:53 PM
^^^^

http://themaltachronicle.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bandwagon.jpg

Rafa is not in his 2008 form, but he's a beast when in a final, so don't count him out

Roger is still the favorite if only for his grass accolades and the fact that it is the surface that brings out the best in his game ;)

Persimmon
06-07-2010, 08:12 PM
Federer.

NadalSharapova
06-07-2010, 08:14 PM
Federer has more chance of reaching final however if its a federer v nadal final then federer is toast

r2473
06-07-2010, 08:54 PM
Federer has more chance of reaching final however if its a federer v nadal final then federer is toast

http://i249.photobucket.com/albums/gg220/cherbear82/Powder_toast_man_by_ArtistoftheWar.jpg

born_on_clay
06-07-2010, 10:57 PM
Nadal 51%
Federer 49%

philosophicalarf
06-07-2010, 11:04 PM
Question is ..... who can beat Nadal on grass? Most of the big players don't look a threat - I'm not convinced by Murray on grass, Djokovic isn't a threat. Berdych at a long shot perhaps? Roddick with Miami form?

andy neyer
06-07-2010, 11:07 PM
I'm pretty sure we're heading towards a Fedal final in Wimby.

I know about the h2h and everything but my gut tells me that Federer should take it.

FormerRafaFan
06-07-2010, 11:14 PM
Federer with Nadal being the obvious underdog. Nadal can definitely win if he plays his best tennis though. He has done it before, and he can do it again.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-07-2010, 11:18 PM
I think Nadal is the favourite for this. Federer has done absolutely nothing since the Australian Open.

andy neyer
06-07-2010, 11:22 PM
Federer is still the first favourite but Nadal is the second favourite, naturally. However, if they happen to meet in the final, I wouldn't know who the favourite would be, tbh. I guess the betting sites would still favour Roger by a small margin, though.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-07-2010, 11:26 PM
Federer is still the first favourite but Nadal is the second favourite, naturally. However, if they happen to meet in the final, I wouldn't know who the favourite would be, tbh.

I would and it would be Nadal.

One of the "special needs" Nadal fans had this right, I think - you'd still back Federer ahead of Nadal to get to the final (despite his terrible post-AO play) but if they both get to the final then Federer is toast. I can see the choked BPs now.

andy neyer
06-07-2010, 11:33 PM
I would and it would be Nadal.

One of the "special needs" Nadal fans had this right, I think - you'd still back Federer ahead of Nadal to get to the final (despite his terrible post-AO play) but if they both get to the final then Federer is toast. I can see the choked BPs now.

Normally I'd think that. I always make the point that Roger tends to choke against Rafa but it can't happen in Wimby, not again. Wimby is Roger's turf and he should protect it or so I hope.

luie
06-08-2010, 12:07 AM
I give federer a slight edge over rafa if they meet in the final but will not be suprised if he lost. I base my assumption against conventional wisdom as far as these 2 are concerned based on their match in MADRID on fast clay it was highly competitive against a well rested & "healthy"rafa.
#2 He didn't lose much to rafa in a long while so mental aspect might be more in his favour as previous years imo.

Orka_n
06-08-2010, 12:12 AM
Federer. I doubt Nadal reaches the final.

Sophocles
06-08-2010, 12:07 PM
Normally I'd think that. I always make the point that Roger tends to choke against Rafa but it can't happen in Wimby, not again. Wimby is Roger's turf and he should protect it or so I hope.

He broke Nadal's serve ONCE in over 4 hours in 2008. That doesn't bode well.

Mimi
06-08-2010, 12:10 PM
poor roddick to win please:angel:

@Sweet Cleopatra
06-08-2010, 12:13 PM
mmmmmmmmmm This is close I don't really know. They have to reach the final first. But pressure is on Federer, Nadal won on clay and he will play the rest of the year without pressure, but Federer hasn't done big tour since AO.

@Sweet Cleopatra
06-08-2010, 12:15 PM
poor roddick to win please:angel:

I like Roddick and I think he deserves to win Wim but I like Nadal more.

ApproachShot
06-08-2010, 01:12 PM
I agree with most of the comments here. Nadal would probably have a higher chance of losing before the final than Federer, as the Swiss has the record for most consecutive finals at Wimbledon. But if it's a Fedal final, I think the replica trophy will be going back to Spain. Nonetheless if Fed were to win a potential match between them on grass then it wouldn't come as a surprise. Their head to head record on grass is quite tight...twice playing 5 set matches in 3 career meetings on the surface.

Another interesting thing is that in the Wimbledon 2008 final, the two sets Federer won were both tiebreaks (I think he broke Rafa once only to be broken back again). Until very recently I'd always favoured Federer in a tiebreak. Now I'd give Nadal the edge once a set goes to 6-6. I guess in matches between the pair it comes down to two things for Federer: can he serve consistently and can he utilise break points opportunities? Nadal is very solid in all of his matches but if Federer can do these two things better then he becomes the favourite to win, as he seems to have more break points on Rafa's serve than the other way around...I would be grateful if anyone had any stats on this.

Although this could well be the last among Roddick's chances to win the tournament (something which I feel he deserves having lost to the most prolific Grand Slam champion thrice in the final) I hope it is a Fedal final. Be they 5 set nailbiters or otherwise, they are an exhibition of quality tennis.

nanoman
06-08-2010, 01:13 PM
Fuzzy math time:

Odds for Federer to reach the final 90%
Odds for Nadal to reach the final 80%

Odds for Federer to beat Nadal 10%
Odds for Federer to beat any other opponent in final 95%

Odds for Nadal to beat any other opponent in final 90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total odds for Fed to win Wimbledon = 0.9*0.8*0.1(vsNadal) + 0.9*0.2*0.95(vsClown) = 24,3%
Total odss for Nadal to win Wimbledon = 0.8*0.9*0.9(vsFederer) + 0.8*0.1*0.9(vsClown) = 72%

Bottom line, Nadal has roughly 3x the chance of Federer to win Wimbledon.

Sophocles
06-08-2010, 01:37 PM
Fuzzy math time:

Odds for Federer to reach the final 90%
Odds for Nadal to reach the final 80%

Odds for Federer to beat Nadal 10%
Odds for Federer to beat any other opponent in final 95%

Odds for Nadal to beat any other opponent in final 90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total odds for Fed to win Wimbledon = 0.9*0.8*0.1(vsNadal) + 0.9*0.2*0.95(vsClown) = 24,3%
Total odss for Nadal to win Wimbledon = 0.8*0.9*0.9(vsFederer) + 0.8*0.1*0.9(vsClown) = 72%

Bottom line, Nadal has roughly 3x the chance of Federer to win Wimbledon.

I think Fed has more than a 10% chance of beating Nadal on grass.

nanoman
06-08-2010, 01:45 PM
I think Fed has more than a 10% chance of beating Nadal on grass.

I don't, as soon as Nadal has hit a CC FH, the rally is his, on any surface.

FedFan
06-08-2010, 01:45 PM
How is the weatherforecast? :confused:

Is God on Federer's or Nadal's side during Wimbledon? :cool:

If the roof is closed Nadal is done. :p

Sophocles
06-08-2010, 02:10 PM
I don't, as soon as Nadal has hit a CC FH, the rally is his, on any surface.

You know that's not true.

AsGoodAsNew
06-08-2010, 02:26 PM
[QUOTE=philosophicalarf;10020631]Question is ..... who can beat Nadal on grass? Most of the big players don't look a threatQUOTE]

Agreed.

Federer fans will not remove their blinkers, but Nadal has the fire back. Federer only just won Wimbledon last year- and Roddick really could have won that match. But hey ho, Federer fans will never admit he can't win - people on here were even saying that Nadal's win in Madrid was a fluke (home turf etc.) and that Federer would win Roland Garros!!!!!

rafa_maniac
06-08-2010, 02:53 PM
Federer because he's more likely to make it to the final, and an even bet in the final I'd say.

.-Federers_Mate-.
06-08-2010, 02:54 PM
Federer. He is the better grass-court player, always has been always will be

Roamed
06-08-2010, 03:38 PM
Another interesting thing is that in the Wimbledon 2008 final, the two sets Federer won were both tiebreaks (I think he broke Rafa once only to be broken back again). Until very recently I'd always favoured Federer in a tiebreak. Now I'd give Nadal the edge once a set goes to 6-6. I guess in matches between the pair it comes down to two things for Federer: can he serve consistently and can he utilise break points opportunities? Nadal is very solid in all of his matches but if Federer can do these two things better then he becomes the favourite to win, as he seems to have more break points on Rafa's serve than the other way around...I would be grateful if anyone had any stats on this.

I added up their BP stats a while ago, can't remember exactly but I think in all their matches Rafa had had about 4 more BPs in total, difference is that he'd converted around 45% but Federer had converted only 30% or so.

christallh24
06-08-2010, 04:42 PM
Voted Roger. I think he has the edge.

ShotmaKer
06-08-2010, 05:19 PM
let's wait for the draws to come out first.

Noleta
06-08-2010, 05:26 PM
Federer

Start da Game
06-08-2010, 05:27 PM
nadal to have the best tournament of 2010 here........his tennis will be at such a high level that he will start playing more on his own terms.......the fact that he is forced to play on his own terms as the surface is grass helps him come up with his best tennis.......

fed, murray, roddick, djokovic, del potro shall have to bear watching him take the title.......

Corey Feldman
06-08-2010, 05:30 PM
i'll take the 6 time champ over someone who hasnt won a title from clay in 15 months

centralviva
06-08-2010, 05:49 PM
Nadal has the better chance he's on a roll and Fed is on the slide

peribsen
06-08-2010, 06:08 PM
Well, the fun part of beeing a Nadal fan was always to see if he could outsmart a better rival (Roger) by forcing him to play outside his comfort zone. So I'll agree Fed is the favourite and just sit back (I really mean sit on the very edge of the sofa.. hell follow the whole match standing up and fretting about like mad) to see if Rafa can pull it off yet again!!

PiggyGotRoasted
06-08-2010, 06:14 PM
Roddick

gusavo
06-16-2010, 03:34 PM
Fuzzy math time:

Odds for Federer to reach the final 90%
Odds for Nadal to reach the final 80%

Odds for Federer to beat Nadal 10%
Odds for Federer to beat any other opponent in final 95%

Odds for Nadal to beat any other opponent in final 90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total odds for Fed to win Wimbledon = 0.9*0.8*0.1(vsNadal) + 0.9*0.2*0.95(vsClown) = 24,3%
Total odss for Nadal to win Wimbledon = 0.8*0.9*0.9(vsFederer) + 0.8*0.1*0.9(vsClown) = 72%

Bottom line, Nadal has roughly 3x the chance of Federer to win Wimbledon.
i had to bump, this is just too funny

Persimmon
06-16-2010, 10:28 PM
i'll take the 6 time champ over someone who hasnt won a title from clay in 15 months

This.

15 months and counting.:o

BlueSwan
06-17-2010, 01:00 PM
I have to say Nadal. Federer is the best grass court player in the world, but he could well take himself out against just about anybody by putting in a mug performance, of which he has had many of late.

Nadal is not going to take himself out. It will take somebody playing out of their skin to beat him and the ballbashers that he usually has issues with ALL, without exception, suck on grass. He could lose to Murray or Djokovic if they get their act together, but that's about it.

Zagor
06-17-2010, 01:21 PM
I guess I'd still give more chance to Fed to actually reach the final than Nadal but if they both reach the final I'd consider Nadal the favourite to win.Not a heavy favourite though by any means,if Fed can have a good serving day and doesn't waste a ton of BPs he can definitely take him out.

HarryMan
06-17-2010, 01:43 PM
This should be an interesting Wimbledon. Federer is obviously the favorite considering his previous records here.

Having said that, this is the most vulnerable he has ever looked since many years. I still believe he will reach the final here, however, if he doesn't, I won't be surprised (this is not something I usually say about Federer at a slam).

Nadal is looking really good, and it is going to take a great consistent performance for someone to beat him (Soderling could be his biggest threat, and then Murray in my opion). Djokovic, Cilic, and the rest of the hard hitters who he usually has problems with on hard courts, won't be able to beat him on grass (or even challenge him here); he is much better on grass. And again it is definitely not a certainty that Murray or Soderling beat him here, should Nadal face them.

If it is a Federer-Nadal final, it will take Federer to play the match of his life to beat Nadal (and I am pretty serious here).

nevenez
06-17-2010, 02:02 PM
I think Rafa but i'm not convinced at all.

gusavo
06-17-2010, 03:34 PM
Djokovic, Cilic, and the rest of the hard hitters who he usually has problems with on hard courts, won't be able to beat him on grass (or even challenge him here)
oh yes, just like lopez you mean?

ossie
07-01-2010, 08:24 AM
no fedal final..