How far will Nadal slide down in the Rankings? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

How far will Nadal slide down in the Rankings?

tennisphilia
01-31-2010, 10:31 PM
After failing to defend his Australian Open title, Nadal will now be rank at #4 when the new rankings are published on Feb 1. This will be his lowest ranking since June 2005 - almost 5 years. With his injury and recovery, Nadal is sure to slide further down the rankings as he is defending a lot of points in the first five months of the year.

His current ranking points include the following:

Tournament - Points - Drop Off Date

Rotterdam - 300 - Feb 15, 2010
Indian Wells - 1,000 - March 22, 2010
Monte Carlo - 1,000 - April 19, 2010
Barcelona - 500 - April 26, 2010
Rome - 1,000 - May 3, 2010

The above points total 3,800 - more than the number of points that #8 Robin Soderling won last year.

Two Questions:
1. How far will he slide down the rankings before the French Open?
2. If he's not in the top 4 come the French Open, will the tournament take an exception and bump his seeding into the top4?

Roamed
01-31-2010, 11:21 PM
He probably will drop out of the top 4 which is sad, defending all or at least most of that will take an inhumane effort currently.

MIMIC
01-31-2010, 11:24 PM
2. If he's not in the top 4 come the French Open, will the tournament take an exception and bump his seeding into the top4?

I thought they only did that for Wimbledon.

harrywang5
01-31-2010, 11:26 PM
I thought they only did that for Wimbledon.

You are right MIMIC. Go back to neogaf.

Johnny Groove
01-31-2010, 11:30 PM
Nadal seeded 6th at Roland Garros :yeah:

oranges
01-31-2010, 11:33 PM
They don't make seeding exceptions anywhere. Wimbledon just has its own rules, giving added weight to results on grass. Given the changes to grass, I'm not sure why anymore, guess that's the part of the tradition important to maintain. In any case, the only way to have a seeding different then you ranking would suggest in other slams is if you have protected ranking that would grant you one AFAIK.

Macbrother
02-01-2010, 12:04 AM
Nadal seeded 6th at Roland Garros :yeah:

Ironically, it could be Nadal that ends Federer's semi-final streak. ;)

theseth1119
02-01-2010, 12:22 AM
Well at least the streak would end against the next best player out there, a 6 time GS champ so far.

Fiberlight1
02-01-2010, 12:48 AM
Would love to see a Nadal Federer QF.. Won't happen though.. Draw organizers won't allow it.

Filo V.
02-01-2010, 12:53 AM
Probably in the 5-7 range.

tennisphilia
02-01-2010, 01:30 AM
Would love to see a Nadal Federer QF.. Won't happen though.. Draw organizers won't allow it.

Why not? Unless he's given a protected ranking, once he falls off the top 4, he has as much chance as anyone to face Federer in the quarters.

chowdahead25
02-01-2010, 01:33 AM
For Roland Garros, I'm looking at:
1. JesusFed
2. Djokovic
3. Murray
4. Del Potro
5. Davydenko
6. Nadal

tennisphilia
02-01-2010, 03:44 PM
I guess the worst case scenario is that he'll slide out of the top 8. Which means he may face one of the top players in the fourth round of Rolland Garros.

Fiberlight1
02-01-2010, 03:47 PM
Why not? Unless he's given a protected ranking, once he falls off the top 4, he has as much chance as anyone to face Federer in the quarters.

You really think they don't play with the draw?

oliverbwfc
02-01-2010, 03:51 PM
47#

madmax
02-01-2010, 03:52 PM
very far

Everko
02-01-2010, 03:57 PM
Why not? Unless he's given a protected ranking, once he falls off the top 4, he has as much chance as anyone to face Federer in the quarters.

tennisphilia meet fixing

tennisphilia
02-01-2010, 03:58 PM
You really think they don't play with the draw?

I really don't. It's done in public, it's computerized - it's random. No draw rigging here, mate.

Speed of Light
02-01-2010, 04:01 PM
The night is always darkest before dawn.
Nadal will soon become an unstoppable force in the tennis world the likes of which the world has never yet seen.

HKz
02-01-2010, 04:08 PM
I think the way it is looking now, Nadal will drop to number 6 or so. Davydenko/Del Potro do not have too many points to defend up to Roland Garros, so obviously they don't have to do much to keep a high amount of points while Nadal is only ahead of Juan Martin by about 1200 points right now. Davydenko does have a little work ahead of him if he does want to move up the ladder if Nadal is able to defend at least some of his points.

Federer&Hingis
02-01-2010, 04:17 PM
6-10

Sunset of Age
02-01-2010, 04:24 PM
I think the way it is looking now, Nadal will drop to number 6 or so. Davydenko/Del Potro do not have too many points to defend up to Roland Garros, so obviously they don't have to do much to keep a high amount of points while Nadal is only ahead of Juan Martin by about 1200 points right now. Davydenko does have a little work ahead of him if he does want to move up the ladder if Nadal is able to defend at least some of his points.

Sounds very possible indeed. A player's ranking isn't just a matter of how that player performs by himself (though doing well obviously helps a lot :)), it's dependent on the performances of his colleagues as well. We'll just have to wait and see what will happen.

BIGMARAT
02-01-2010, 10:02 PM
what a wonderful qf to see Roger vs Rafa.

ZackBusner
02-01-2010, 10:10 PM
Why not? Unless he's given a protected ranking, once he falls off the top 4, he has as much chance as anyone to face Federer in the quarters.

PR does not play any role for the seedings, it's just for the entry lists. But afaik all Grand Slams are allowed to make their own seeding lists different from the official ranking. But I don't remember the RG organizers ever having done this.

Sunset of Age
02-01-2010, 10:10 PM
what a wonderful qf to see Roger vs Rafa.

Even if Rafa drops to a position within the #5 - #8 range, chances of that to happen are less than 25%. Even less as there is still the possibility (unthinkable, I know) that neither of them even make the QF. ;)

Andresito
02-01-2010, 10:14 PM
I guess n 6 or 7.

Anyway, if he's gonna face Federer again, it's gonna be on the finals.

He could be n 50, and still the "luck" is gonna place him in the bottom side of the draw.

tennisphilia
02-02-2010, 01:17 AM
I guess n 6 or 7.

Anyway, if he's gonna face Federer again, it's gonna be on the finals.

He could be n 50, and still the "luck" is gonna place him in the bottom side of the draw.

seems like a couple of posters have indicated that draws are not really random. is there any history behind this?

Sunset of Age
02-02-2010, 01:48 AM
seems like a couple of posters have indicated that draws are not really random. is there any history behind this?

Hahaha, yes, if you believe the MTF Conspiracies-on-Draws Threads, there surely is. :o
Remember, Tio Toni and Mirka Vavrinek Federer have a great say in the matter, no? :angel:

coonster14
02-02-2010, 02:11 AM
rafa has so many points to defend up until May, I can really see him dropping to #6 or #7 come French Open.

i think by the time French Open comes, it will be
1. Fed
2. Nole
3. Muzza
4. Delpo
5. Davy
6 & 7. Rafa/Roddick
8. one of Sod/Tsonga/Cilic/Gonzo

Andresito
02-02-2010, 02:50 AM
seems like a couple of posters have indicated that draws are not really random. is there any history behind this?

Not really history, just marketing.

Just think about the round robin system, what was the logic behind it?

Anyway, it draws are arranged to set a possibly Federer-Nadal final I don't see the problem. Finals between them are just amazing.

Mjau!
10-16-2010, 09:04 PM
Probably in the 5-7 range.

:yeah:

Filo V.
10-16-2010, 09:05 PM
:yeah:

Didn't he fall to #5?

But he's recovered from his injuries, and he's the undisputed #1 now :wavey:

Jimnik
10-16-2010, 09:07 PM
Dunno. Think he might stay in the top 50 for a few more years.

Mjau!
10-16-2010, 09:18 PM
Didn't he fall to #5?

But he's recovered from his injuries, and he's the undisputed #1 now :wavey:

:o No, he didn't fall at all you mug! :eek:

Filo V.
10-16-2010, 09:55 PM
:o No, he didn't fall at all you mug! :eek:

He did fall when he was injured, he was #1, then he fell to #4. Didn't he fall to #5 briefly, and then eventually move up back to the top?

A_Skywalker
10-16-2010, 10:04 PM
He did fall when he was injured, he was #1, then he fell to #4. Didn't he fall to #5 briefly, and then eventually move up back to the top?

no

vn01
10-17-2010, 06:53 AM
What happened now? Rafa makes the best season of his life. Won 3 GS titles, completed his Career Grand Slam, won 3 Masters titles in a row, become no.1 again and guranteed his no.1 spot to the end of the season. VAMOS RAFA!

Haters off!

Topspindoctor
10-17-2010, 08:30 AM
:lol: @ this thread. Haters gonna hate!!!

n8
10-17-2010, 11:35 AM
He did fall when he was injured, he was #1, then he fell to #4. Didn't he fall to #5 briefly, and then eventually move up back to the top?

You may be confusing him with Murray, who dropped to #5 for three weeks this year. Rafa only went down to #4 and that was only for four weeks in total. With Murray winning Shanghai, the big four are rock solid once again. There has been the same top four since September 8th 2008, bar three weeks.

Veronique
10-17-2010, 02:42 PM
Great bump!

Filo V.
10-17-2010, 04:19 PM
You may be confusing him with Murray, who dropped to #5 for three weeks this year. Rafa only went down to #4 and that was only for four weeks in total. With Murray winning Shanghai, the big four are rock solid once again. There has been the same top four since September 8th 2008, bar three weeks.

You are probably right, you are a great statician, thank you for the help!

Fascinating that the top 4 have been in place for 2+ years, shows you just how far ahead of the pack they are. I wonder if Del Potro can be the guy to crack that foursome and even more.

born_on_clay
10-18-2010, 06:52 AM
What happened now? Rafa makes the best season of his life. Won 3 GS titles, completed his Career Grand Slam, won 3 Masters titles in a row, become no.1 again and guranteed his no.1 spot to the end of the season. VAMOS RAFA!

Haters off!

:bowdown: