Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

TommyGold
09-20-2009, 12:48 PM
I'm going to start tracking all my plays in the current NFL season. I'm playing only chalk when it comes to sides, plus another Under. The plays for Week 2 are:


New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek
Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker
Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker
Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle


Now, the writeups:

TommyGold
09-20-2009, 12:49 PM
New England Patriots @ New York Jets

This game has an extreme rivalry, everybody knows that both teams dislike each other and there are always arguments between coaches and players, before, during and after the games, but truth is, in the end, the Patriots always take the upper hand in this matches always loaded with great rivalry.

To be honest, the Jets were a good surprise on Week 1, they played very well on the Defense, delivering a lot of pressure on the opponent QB and rookie QB Sanchez did a reliable game and had a nice debut, however the Texans rarely pressured him and he did everything he wanted to do, which surely will change on this game against the Patriots.

Defensively, the Jets were excelent estiveram excelent against Houston, but the Texans don't have the offensive solutions that New England has at his disposal on their arsenal. The Patriots has the best Offense and will surely make life harder to the Jets Defense, both on the Running Game and on the Passing Game as well, because New England is much more stronger than the Texans when it comes down to score the points.

The Patriots will miss due to injury a very important player: Jerod Mayo was hurt against the Bills and he will be out for a few weeks. Despite his absence, New England did a good job against the Bills, under the circunstances, if we take in account that of the 24 points conceded by the Pats, 7 (a touchdown) were offered by Tom Brady, therefore, only 17 points should be accounted to the New England Defense.

It is probable that the Patriots will do tactical changes on their D, but for me, they are ready to face the Jets Offense. Belichick knows too well that in order to win this game, his Defense will have to pressure the Jets rookie QB with a lot of sacks and to disrupt his work. Sanchez will not have all the commodities enjoyed against the Texans, so they will simply come after him, inflicting on him a lot of damage and forcing him to make the errors and bad decisions throughout the game.

As I already told you, the Pats have great Offensive Power, but on the Ground and on the Air as well. Tom Brady started his first game of the season after a long stop delivering short passes, but when it was needed, he took care of the game with his perfect throws aimed to his Wide Receiver and Tight End, which resulted in another Patriots' victory.

I also want to add that the New England Offense on his last drives resembled the team that benefited from great success in 2007. The ease that the Pats showed to arrive to the Bill's end zone was quite impressive and I think that despite a very hard victory, it gave the New England defensive line a boost on their Morale and to their QB Tom Brady as well, which already knows that he is ready to deliver the long passes when needed and to do a very agressive game.

For all these reasons stated above, I believe the Patriots will win this game by double digits and therefore, there is a lot of value on this line.


Pick: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek

TommyGold
09-20-2009, 12:50 PM
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Houston comes from a heavy defeat at home against the Jets and they will play next Sunday against a very good team, which actually also lost their first game.

For what I saw from the Texans, their QB doesn't seem to be at 100% and their option for the rushing game hasn't done anything good, since the Jets were able to stop that kind of game. Despite all this, Houston will choose to use the rushing game against the Titans, but I believe they won't be able to achieve great success doing it, because Tennessee have a great defensive line against that kind of plays.

The Titans have one the best overall rosters of the NFL, their Defense is excelent and practically all their plays are very physically strong. It is true that their rushing game against the Steelers didn't played quite well, but the Houston Defense doesn't have anything related to the Pittsburg D, henceforth I think that the key for the success of this game for the Titans to win this match is lying on top of their good rushing game against a very weak defense on the opposite side.

Besides their Rush Offense, they also have a good weapons on their passing game and those who witness Houston's first game, could see how difficult it was for them to play against the Pass Offense. As I already stated, the Titans are fresh and have one of the best teams in the league and they had more resting time than the Texans, which is also an added advantage, but that is not the most important factor.

Titans should win this game by at least one TD or more, because their Defense is playing very strongly and this Tennesse team is too good to even went 0-2. The value is on the Titans side and that is the side I will take for this game.


Pick: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
09-20-2009, 12:51 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

I can only see the Vikings win Big and the reason for that is quite simple: Minnesota has a very good Defense indeed, both on the Ground against the Air, their defensive line doesn't allow any room for easy plays to no one. Their rushing game is impressive and we already know that and the reason for it: Adrian Peterson, which is in my opinion the best Running back in the league and he proved it again on Week 1. He is fast, athletic and very strong physically, doing whatever he wants against the opponents defenses.

Last season, Minny great problem was their Passing Game. With the arrival of Brett Favre, that aspect of the Vikings' offensive game has improved considerably and the team has now a lot of options and plays to choose on their Offense, which will make the lives of their opponent's Defensive lines a lot harder, because now they will not know what to expect from that Minny's OL. If last season, it was obvious how Minnesota would play, this season the opponents defensive coordinators have to prepare their Defenses both for a Favre's pass or against another Adrian Peterson rush.

The Detroit Lions continue to have the same problem as last year: a very weak Defense, both against the passing game as the rushing game as well. Simply put, the Lions' D sucks and honestly I don's see how they will stop Adrian Peterson's rushes or Brett Favre passes. Other factor that plays against Detroit on this game is that the Rookie QB Stafford is still a freshmann and he even didn't do a bad game against the New Orleans Saints, but he registered 3 interceptions against one team that in my opinion is far below on Defensive quality when stacked against the Vikings Defense, therefore, I don't see an easy life on this match for the Detroit's rookie quarterbacks.

It is true that the Lions registered 27 against the Saints, but those who saw that game, know that Detroit scored their touchdowns mostly thanks to the serious mistake by the New Orleans Defense, which I already stated, is weaker than the Vikings D, otherwise, had the Saints defensive line played as "expected", and the Lions Offense would have scored a lot less than 27 points.

The Minnesota Vikings has a very good team this year and they will surely want to be present on the Playoffs and for this game, they are the team with the edge on all the sectors, having the best QB, the most experience, a superior rushing game, a better passing game or a stronger defense, and for all this, I believe in an easy win for the Vikes for at least 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
09-20-2009, 12:52 PM
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Seattle comes to this game after an easy home win where they dominated the Rams and the 49ers went to Arizona to defeat the Cardinals, showing their good qualities on the opponent's field.

The Seahawks have an excelent Defense which will surely be able to stop both the 49ers' the aerial and ground Offense. Seattle has also good options on their Offense, but they will face a very agressive Defense which has great quality, henceford, the Seahawks won't have the commodities they had in the game against the St. Louis Rams.

The 49ers won the game against the Cardinals in a way that everybody least expected... Meaning, they won the game thanks to their passing game. But they will use mostly their rushing game, knowing for a fact that the Seahawks D is very good against the air and they have enough manpower to shutdown their attempts to use the passing game as the main offensive weapon. San Francisco has also a lot of quality on their Defense and the 49ers D will make this game very difficult for the Seahawks Offense thanks to their agressiveness.

Both Defenses are really good, so you should expect a lot of turnovers, os 49ers will surely rush the ball and I believe we will have a very hard fought match between these teams and a low point game for both teams, with the defenses to stand out.


Pick: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-21-2009, 10:17 PM
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

Miami always has great problems when faces teams which have great chances to go to the playoffs or are usual presences in the playoffs, it is rare to see a Dolphins' win, like it happened on the Week 1 and on the last season, when Miami had one good record.

In their first game, the Miami's QB suffered several sacks and that damaged their Offense, causing a lot of turnovers in the process. Tonight they will have to deal a strong team, both offensively and defensively, which will deal a lot of troubles both to Miami Offense and Defense.

Indianapolis despite their win in the Week 1, had very issues on their Offense, but I expect them to improve that for this game, since they are very agressive when they have the ball and their franchise QB Peyton Manning has returned to his old form since his last injury and he can also make history on the NFL, going for his 119th victory, which would break a tie with Johnny Unitas for the franchise record.

The Colts' Defence showed good qualities, they do a lot of pressure on their opponents' QB, which leads to several provoked errors. Indy will surely play by the Air, because that is their strong spot in the Offense, still they also have good players for the rushing game, but their preference is really the passing game, thanks to their star QB.

Whe have to remember that this is a Monday Night Football game, with a lot of Motivation for both sides: the Dolphins have the home advantage and they want to do a great game, on the other hand this is an opportunity for the Colts to give a win to their franchise QB Peyton Manning and do history in the NFL, believing that they will deal with the pressure of being the road favorites for this game.

Despite the fact the Dolphins will play at home, I believe that the Colts will manage to win this game, with their Offense to show their edge, supported by their Defense deles, which will cause a lot of difficulties to the Dolphins' Offense. I see the Colts scoring at least 25 points and I don't expect the Dolphins to exceed the mark of the 17 points in this exciting game.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek

TommyGold
09-22-2009, 10:50 PM
Below are the Week 2 results recap:


7 - New England Patriots @ New York Jets: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek (LOSS)
8 - Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
9 - Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
10 - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle (WIN)
11 - Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)

SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS 1-0. (Week 2)

TommyGold
09-26-2009, 04:32 AM
For the Week 3, I'll have 2 totals and 6 sides (In Chalk we Trust :P).

I'll deliver the writeups later in the weekend.


WEEK 3 SIDES:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek / CHI -1 -118 (1,847) Pinnacle

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) / NOS -6 +102 (2,02) Pinnacle

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) / ARI -2,5 -114 (1,877) Pinnacle


WEEK 3 TOTALS:
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 07:40 AM
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

This game is of extreme importance to Tennessee, one defeat against the Jets and they will be 0-3, which would a terrible start for the Titans and therefore, this game it is much more important for them than for the Jets.

The Titans' Defense on their last game was horrible and they manage to lost a game that was practically in the bag. In order to win this game, Tennessee D has to play at the same level they did against Pittsburgh and I believe they will do it because they have a lot of quality players for the job and will surely do the "Blitz" against the Jets QB Sanchez leading the rookie to commit mistakes.

Tennessee has an excelent Rushing Game and that will be the main offensive weapon for this game, since their QB Kerry Collins is average, usually he doesn't take the most correct decisions in the field and against such a good Jets Defense, the Titans will have to rely most of the time on their Ground Offense, and even by using the rush, things are not going to be easy.

The New York Jets had a great season start and their Defense showed a lot of quality, playing much better than their Offense counterpart, and without Calvin Pace. Jets D have been completely onfire and I even don't want to imagine how good they will be when Pace comes back. They have been superb on both sides, stoping both the opponent's rushing game and passing game, showing a lot of agression and provoking a lot of errors on the opponents QBs.

The Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has done good games lately, but you can be sure that one day things will not get well for his side, which is natural to expect on his first regular season and he will have a lot more troubles facing the Titans D, which we can expect to play a lot harder than the previous defenses Sanchez faced, specially with their Blitzes.

The Jets Defense has been very strong, playing very agressive and they don't give much chances to their opponents to score, on the other hand, the Titans also have an excelent D despite the meltdown on their last game, but knowing for a fact that Tennessee badly needs a win on this game, makes me believe that this will be a Low Point Game and therefore, the Under has a lot of value.


Pick : Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 07:43 AM
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Jacksonville had a weak start and to be honest it is not a surprise, a lot of rookies playing lately and things are going really ugly. Their Offense has been anemic and their Defense has not been much better either, which can be a very bad telling sign. It is easy to predict the Jaguars' gameplan for this game: Rushing Game and hope that Jones-Drew will solve their offense issues. The problem with this approach is that the Jags O is so predictable, that the opponent team can very well read which Jacksonville is going to do in the game, but if we put things in perspective, it is not their opponents' fault, the Jaguars only have the rushing game to rely on, because their Offense this year is really very bad.

Houston has a very nice Offense, a decent QB and excelents Wide Receivers, making their O unit their best side of the team. A team which hasn't showed yet their good Rushing Game, which can cause a lot of troubles to the Jags Defense with offensive variations when having possession of the ball. Texans D is their weakest point, but truth be told, the Jaguars Offense doesn't scare anyone.

With this mismatch in mind, we also have history on our side: Houston usually does well against Jacksonville, yet this is not the main fact that compells me to side with the Texans for this game, but the circumstance that Houston has the better team and they also have the home field advantage, which makes me think that Houston Texans will win this match by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 07:46 AM
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When everybody thought that the Giants would have some problems due to Plaxico Burress absence, but the team has done well both on the Offense and on the Defense, and for what I've seen, they maybe have with the Ravens the stronger NFL's set of players at the moment in all the sectors.

The Defense is playing very well and confident both on the Rushing Game and on the Passing Game as well. Obviously we can say that Dallas on their last game massacred the Giants with their Rushing Game, but this was a consequence of the Giants head coach defensive options concerning the Cowboys' Passing Game, which left the Giants D opened to the opponent's Rushing Game, which will not happen on this game and the team will perform much better on their defensive end. Offensively speaking, I think the Giants will use a lot more their Ground Offense in the early game and when occasion arises, they will switch to their Passing Game.

What can I tell You about the Buccanneers? Tampa Bay has performed quite well on the offensive end, but in this game they will face a great Defense and the Bucs O will not have an easy task ahead. However, their weak spot in on their Defense, besides an important missing player, they show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, and when that happens against the Giants, defeat is a certain outcome.

With this mismatch against the Buccaneers on their defensive end, with the Giants mentaly very strong, we can expect them to win Big this game.


Pick: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 07:48 AM
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco had been very good on the defensive end, but they will not be able to stop the best NFL's Rusher which will play by the Vikes, and they can't even entertain the idea of having their defensive scheme focused against RB Adrian Peterson, otherwise they will overwhelmed by the Vikings' Passing Game, ergo the 49ers Defense has a very troublesome task ahead. Knowing that their Offense is not their best suit, specially on the Passing Game, we can expect San Francisco to rely on their Rushing Game, where they have an excellent option, but they will face a great Running Defense, which will make life harder for the 49ers O.

Minnesota is playing very well on both ends, defensive and offensive. Their D is very strong, both against the opponent's Passing Game and Rushing Game as well, which just makes things worse for their opponents offense. Veteran QB Brett Favre has played very intelligently, despite even suffering some sacks, but he is not taking unnecessary risks and that has translated in zero interceptions. The reason why he is prefering to play in a safer way is quite simple actually: Favre knows he can rely on Adrian Peterson ability to get 1st downs on one carrie, and when you have a such talented running back, you don't have to take much risks on the passing game, and that is a wise decision from him.

Having the best roster of both teams, and also the most complete, the Vikings also have the home field advantage, which makes them the obvious favorite for this game. Besides, what the 49ers have to offer to this game regarding their edges, is nullified by the Minnesota's strong spots, which in fact can surpass San Francisco, thus creating a nice mismatch for us to exploit and I believe that the Vikings will be able to win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

Bolelli Ultra
09-27-2009, 09:59 AM
I know Absolutely nothing about this sport, but i like the way you do your write ups. Im going to follow you on each play.

good luck mate :)

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 11:56 AM
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks

Despite the Urlacher's big absence due to injury, Chicago still has an outstanding Defense and they prove it on their last game, being very agressive and they didn't allowed the Pittsburgh offense to do their work. QB Jay Cutler after a terrible season opener, managed to change his game and made a good performance on his last match, which is a good sign for the Chicago Offense, since their opponents' defense will now have to worry about him more than they thought before, thus opening the Bears' range of options, improving their Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte and benefiting also from the WR Devin Hester's speed.

The main factor that made me to side with Chicago, is the probable absence of Seahawks' Star QB Matt Hasselbeck, which is capable to miss this game, and in that case, things might be easier for the Bears. The Seattle's strong side is undoubtedly their Offense, but today the Seahawks will face one of the better and most agressive defenses in the NFL, and their Offense will have a lot of difficulties ahead in order to advance in the field. Seattle's D is very weak, mainly against the opponents' rushing game, they always suffer a lot of hardships, and knowing that Chicago has a good ground offense, the edge goes to the road favorite.

If QB Jay Cutler does an intelligent game like he did last week, and I believe he will do it again, the Bears will have good chances to win this game. I'm expecting to see good plays that will open extra holes on the Seahawks defense for RB Matt Forte to exploit and even some lab plays with WR Devin Hester, because these Seahawks are very feeble and the mismatches between them and the Bears gives the edge to the small favorite and I expect Chicago to win this match.


Pick: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek / CHI -1 -118 (1,847) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 12:00 PM
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills

What can I say about New Orleans that you already don't know...? Well, lets start to talk about their weakest side, their Defense, which has improved a lot, and has nothing to do with the Saints D from last season. It is true that New Orleans now suffers a lot of lost yards per game, but that is completely normal. What changed for the best, was the reliability of the defense, the players are surer and have more confidence in themselves and they don't give anymore the wide openings of old and they have made a lot of interceptions.

Now, let's talk about the Saints Offense. They have one of the best QB of the league, Drew Brees, and when a QB of this caliber has one Offense at his disposal like the Saints have, things can get quite ugly for the opponents' defense. New Orleans is outstanding on the passing game and if we take in consideration that this year, the Saints' rushing game has improved its quality, then you have to acknowledge that this Saints O is much more powerful than it was last season.

Buffalo has done very good games in this season's start, QB Trent Edwards has played very solid and has done his job. The great problem the Bills will face today is how these Saints can score points in the board with ease, and when that happens, the Bills will be forced to recover those points and score a few more than the Saints. And demanding that from QB Trent Edwards, forcing him to take greater risks when his team is trailing behind the Saints, might lead to interceptions and turnovers, which translates to more possession time for New Orleans and a certain "death" of the Bills during the game. On the defensive end, the team has been reasonable, and when I say reasonable, I remember that against the Patriots, the Bills Defense played like their were completely sleeping in the field.

For me, New Orleans is a team that can cause and deliver a lot of damages against any team thanks to their offensive power conducted by a great QB. These Saints have the tools to score early in the game and with that early lead, they put a lot of pressure on the opponent's QB, which will provoke errors on the opposition and for that I think New Orleans will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) / NOS -6 +102 (2,02) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-27-2009, 05:01 PM
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals

We all know that the Indianapolis team has one of the finest QB of the league and a future inductee in the NFL Hall of Fame: Peyton Manning. Even when the Colts O is not performing as expected, you can always count on Manning to fix it, to find a solution that will win the game for the Indianapolis team. Indeed, Peyton Manning is a QB of an enormous quality. The Colts' rushing game this year has been very good actually, we all know that this team on the offensive end depends a lot of their passing game, but when it was needed, the ground offense has got the job done.

The major question for this game doesn't lie on the Colts offense, but on the Indianapolis defense: how are they going to stop Boldin and Fitzgerald? Truth is, they can stop one of them, but never both when they are on the field at the same time. And if take to account that the Cards have a good third option to penetrate deep in the Colts territory, the Indy D will have serious troubles to stop the Arizona O.

Arizona has a very good offense, with a superb QB, which has outstanding weapons for deep penetration at his disposal with the WRs of great quality, that can get things very difficult to any good defense on the NFL. If the Cardinals O is very strong and has been this season their best side, on the defensive end things have not gone well for Arizona and the defensive team can be thankful for having an Offense that has saved their rear end on the field in several occasions.

For me, the Cardinals have here a good chance to win this game, first thanks to a Colts' Short Week, and second, the edge on the Offense goes to the Cards team, since they have more firepower on their offensive arsenal than the Colts. Both defenses will suffer a lot against their opponent's Offense and we will see a offensive power game show, with lots of touchdowns scored by both teams, a Big Time Shoot Out match and a home win for the Arizona Cardinals.


Picks: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle;

Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) / ARI -2,5 -114 (1,877) Pinnacle

TommyGold
09-28-2009, 09:38 AM
Below are the Week 3 results:

12 - Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)

13 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)

14 - New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) (WIN)

15 - San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz (LOSS)

16 - Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek Pinnacle (WIN)

17 - New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) (WIN)

18 - Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek (LOSS)

19 - Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) (LOSS)

SIDES: 3-3; TOTALS 0-2. (Week 3: -2,35 units)
SIDES: 8-7; TOTALS 1-3. Overall: 9-10. Balance: -1,9 units

TommyGold
09-28-2009, 09:51 AM
I know Absolutely nothing about this sport, but i like the way you do your write ups. Im going to follow you on each play.

good luck mate :)


Many thanks for the support, Bolelli Ultra! :yeah:

bad gambler
09-28-2009, 01:02 PM
Keep up the good work Tommy, good luck.

TommyGold
10-03-2009, 09:08 AM
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Bet Jamaica, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet;
BAL +2 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; BAL +2 -110 (1,91) WSEX, Bodog, Sportbet, Betonline, Partybets and Gamebookers; BAL +1,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet;

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Bet 365, Ladbrokes, WSEX, Boyle Sports, Centrebet, bwin;
NYG -8 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; NYG -8,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet; NYG +8,5 -104 (1,96) 188bet;

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends, Betonline, Ladbrokes, Stan James, bwin;
TEN -3 +105 (2,05) Expekt; TEN -3 -105 (1,95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica, 5Dimes, JustBet, Sportbet, Bet365, Canbet, Partybets and Gamebookers; TEN -3 -106 (1,943) Pinnacle; TEN -3 -106 (1,94) 188bet;

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Legends, Bet Jamaica, Betonline, Sportbet, BEtUS, Ladbrokes, Centrebet;
IND -10 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; IND -10 -108 (1,93) Canbet; IND -10 -109 (1,92) 188bet;

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Legends, 5Dimes, The Greek, Bet Jamaica, Sportbet, BetUS, WSEX, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet, bwin;
CIN -5,5 -110 (1,91) BetOnline, JustBet, ; CIN -5,5 -102 (1,98) Expekt; CIN -6 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; CIN -108 (1,93) Canbet;

Saints Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek;
SFO -9,5 -104 (1,962) Pinnacle; SFO -9,5 -105 (1,95) Unibet; SFO -10 -104 (1,94) 188bet; SFO -108 (1,93) Canbet; SFO -110 (1,91) Bookmaker; Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet;

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Legends, Unibet;
MIN -3,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet; MIN -3,5 -109 (1,917) Pinnacle; MIN -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, The Greek, Ladbrokes, Stan James, Centrebet;

TommyGold
10-03-2009, 09:15 AM
Keep up the good work Tommy, good luck.


Many thanks for the support, bad gambler! :yeah:

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:34 AM
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

Baltimore has never won against New England, but I think this time it will be different. The Ravens are playing very well in all the important sectors in the field. QB Joe Flacco has improved a lot, much more confident on his decisions during this year, thanks to the time his OL provides him to take the best calls and also because he has good offensive players to which he can deliver his passes.

This improvement on the Baltimore's Offense, playing very well both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, offsets the lower performance of the Ravens D, by far their strongest spot. We could say that the Baltimore's Defence is weaker because they suffer a lot more points than on the previous season, but for me that is not the real reason: in fact, the Ravens D is attacking a lot more, taking more risks. And when they are called to win a game, like it happened on week 2, Ravens D was outstanding, earning a winner. Baltimore has one of the best defenses of the NFL, if not even the best of the league.

Curiously the Patriots have been very good on the Defense, but they are playing very poor on the Offense, which is the opposite of the Ravens performances. When in the early season everything pointed to some struggle on the defense and a show of force on the offense, we are getting the opposite. The reason why the Pats O is not doing well is due to lack of form of their QB Tom Brady, which hasn't returned to his good old self. Only when that happens, New England will become again a great offensive powerhouse, something that I believe will happen someday this season, but not on this match.

Wes Welker is missing due to injury, he is a very important player for Brady, we still don't know for sure if he will play in this game, the reports I've got say that he hasn't practiced, which is never a good sign. The Pats have played poorly on the passing game, but on the rushing game they are doing very well, but for this match, they will face the best ground defense team in the NFL and the Ravens will make things very hard for the Pats' rushers.

This is a game where Baltimore shows up at a superior level than New England, the Ravens have a great Defense and their Offense has delivered the goods with a lot of points scored, but for this game, life won't be easy for the Ravens, because the Patriots are defending very well, but the New England's offense is having a lot of troubles on the air and their winners were due to their rushing game, which will have a very difficult time against the best ground defense team in the league, and that is why I see a win on the road for the Baltimore Ravens.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:37 AM
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

When everybody thought that the Giants would have a lot of issues on their Offense due to what happened to Plaxico Burress, the young receivers incorporated in the offensive team are taking care of the business. This Giants franchise is perhaps one of the best organized teams in all the field sectors, everybody knows their job and what to do and that translates in success in this season start. QB Eli Manning has been very good and secure, showing a good chemistry with his excellent young wide receivers and that is why they are scoring a lot of points in the offense. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, showing a lot of focus and they don't give their opposition many chances to progress down the field. Bottom line, this Giants' team is quite strong and complete.

Kansas City has a great problem to solve on their offense: QB Matt Cassel is a good plays, not bad at all, however he doesn't have the manpower to give continuity to his plays, like we saw on his last game where he did 14/18 for only 90 Yards, which is simply awful. Knowing that the Chiefs will face one of the best defenses in the NFL, things won't be pretty on this side of the game. If we look at the Chiefs D, they aren't playing good either, overall, and truth be told, Kansas City has not been well in this early season in any sector and it will be painful to watch them play against these Giants.

In conclusion, if New York is a very complete team, the Chiefs are the opposite, the Giants D will face a weak offense, and the Giants O has everything to make things harder for the Kansas City defense. For me, this Giants on the road have the upperhand and they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:39 AM
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Time is running out for Tennessee, they lost their first 3 games of the season which is very bad for the team and if they don't start winning this week, their season is over. So, we have the Titans in a do-or-die situation, this is a must win game for them and for me, they have enough quality to pull it off. They have a decent QB and an excellent rushing game with Chris Johnson, very physical and capable of winning games, but the great problem of these Titans this year is on their pass defense, conceding a lot of points, which is odd since they have on the paper an outstanding Defense and they shouldn't suffer so much points like they did, so I'm expecting the Titans D to rise up to the occasion, doing their job as expected, because they have the quality and the skills to do so.

Jacksonville has a nice QB too and like the Titans, they also have a good rushing game, but I think that Jones Drew has not the same quality as Chris Johnson. This season, the Jags O is having a lot of troubles, too many rookies and things are not going well for them. Their offensive game plan is very predictable, they always go for the rushing game and the Titans head coach knows that and will surely prep is team against it, since Tennessee has a good ground defense. The Jags D only did a good first game against the Colts, after that they conceded a lot of points, they aren't doing well and that is not a good thing.

Tennesse can't lose this one, even if it is on the road, and quite frankly, I'm not seeing this Titans team with all the skilled players they have ending 0-4 in the week 4, they have the best team, they usually do well against Jacksonville winning almost every game they had with the Jags, so I think Tennessee will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:42 AM
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is having a lot of problems with many important players injured, depleting their offensive and defensive of the needed quality to win games in this league. The Seahawks will visit a team that has a very good offense thanks to their franchise QB, one of the best in the NFL and on a field that is very hard to play and harder to win. The Seattle's offense is going to face a good opposition and to be honest, I'm not seeing them doing much damage to the Colts, it's the Seahawks D that will have the major troubles to stop Manning and Garçon.

Peyton Manning has been top-notch in this season start, thrilling with short and deep passes, and with the help of the second year WR Pierre Garçon, a lot of damage has been delivered on the opponents' defenses. The Colts D is playing very well this year, doing their job as expected. Indianapolis has a very close team, very complete in all the sectors of the field, which makes them very dangerous and they are also in top form.

I'm not seeing the Seattle defense putting a stop on the Manning / Garçon duo nor their offense to complicate matters to the Colts D, and therefore, with the edge of having the home field advantage, Indianapolis has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:44 AM
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati has a good QB and Carson Palmer has great offensive options, which makes his team a dangerous one on the passing game. The Bengals have also used Cedric Benson a lot on the rushing game and I think that he is a good choice and he has proved it in the early season. So, we have a Bengals O with good choices to play both by the air on the ground, which makes this offensive team very dangerous. Remarkably, Cincinnati has also done well on the defense, which is a nice surprise, and I believe that with all these qualities, they might qualify to the Playoffs.

Cleveland changed their starting QB, but that won't change, because both players for that role are very weak after all and this Browns O is having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored in their last 9 games says it all. The Cleveland defense is not playing good either, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game. Truth be told, this Browns D doesn't have any organization whatsoever and that is the main reason why Cleveland suffers so many points per game.

I enjoy seeing these Bengals playing again with QB Carson Palmer and I'm positively surprised to see the agressiveness that the Cincinatti defense puts in their game, because the Bengals have excellent offensive weapons and their defense is doing a nice job, and they are visiting a team that is very weak on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive alike. If the Bengals want to reach their goals on this season and make to the Playoffs, they can't lose these easy games. Cincinati will prove their superiority on this game and win it by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-04-2009, 09:46 AM
Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

I don't have much to say positively about Saint Louis, this is a weak team on all the sectors. Their QB is weak, their offense is weak (the exception being their rushing game), their defense is weak (miserable might be a better adjective). Then you have a lot of important players sidelined with injuries, which depletes a team that has already few quality players to contend against the other teams in the league. So things are not going quite well for the Rams and their coaching staff will have to come up with a lot of patchwork in order to play this game.

San Francisco had a heart-breaking defeat last week, thanks to Brett Favre and Greg Lewis, with the former throwing a last second pass to the later, but the 49ers head coach already told to the press that the way they lost in Minneapolis won't cause troubles to the team, it will be quite the opposite, San Francisco is now much more ready and motivated than before for this game. Their calling card is an agressive defense, with put a lot fo work against the passing game and the rushing game as well, as we saw them do against the Vikes, where they neutralized with some degree of success the best rusher of the league (Adrian Peterson only had 85 yards for 19 carries, scoring is lowest average in his first three games with only 4.5 yards). The 49ers O shows a decent QB with good options on the passing game thanks to their nice wide receivers.

With all the issues plaguing the Rams, knowing that the 49ers are the best team in all the field sectors, it is my belief that the 49ers will make the most of their home field advantage and win easily this game by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek

TommyGold
10-05-2009, 09:22 AM
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has a very good QB, but Aaron Rodgers suffers a lot of sacks and if he plays in this game like he did in the previous games, Minnesota will "take good care" of him. The Vikings D is very strong against the passing game, but they are even better when facing the opponents' rushing game, showing a lot of agressiveness and unless the Packers offensive line does an outstanding game, we will see Aaron Rodgers suffering a lof of sacks instead of making more good plays. Packers D has been very weak lately, if we don't count with their season opening, and if their running defense doesn't dramatically improve, they won't be able to stop the best rusher in the league, RB Adrian Peterson, and they will have a lot of problems to stop the Vikes ground offense.

This is the QB Brett Favre game that everyone wants to see, both the supports and the players as well, and all the Minnesota roster has stated they are supporting Brett Favre on this game, so everyone is on the same page and hopes to see him shine big time. For the veteran QB, this will be one of the most important games of his long career, with an added revenge factor motivation for Favre to show to his former team, that the "Packers" shouldn't let him go like they did.

The Vikings have this year a good an experience QB, something they didn't had before, they have the best rusher in the league, the head coach is not binded to play only the rushing game anymore, since he has now someone who can deliver the ball to his receivers, even in a very dramatic way like we saw in their last game, which for any opponent facing this Vikings O, is a living nightmare.

I believe that Favre will do his best to win this game, the team will support him, so the usual rivalry between Vikings and Packers as an added motive, and the edge after comparing Green Bay and Minnesota goes for the Vikings, not only because they have the home field advantage, but also because they have the better team, both on the offensive plan, and on the defensive plan as well. Henceforth, I think the Minnesota Vikings are going to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-06-2009, 06:28 AM
Below are my Week 4 results recap:

20 - Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
21 - New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
22 - Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends (LOSS)
23 - Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
24 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker(LOSS)
25 - Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)
26 - Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)

SIDES: 4-3. (Week 4: +0,64 units)
NFL 2009 Season results - SIDES: 12-10; TOTALS 1-3. Overall: 13-13. Balance: -1,26 units

TommyGold
10-10-2009, 02:42 AM
Another week, another round, 8 more picks to play:

Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 01:27 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams

Minnesota has doing very well in this season start (4-0) thanks to their "new" weapon: if on the last season, their offense was predictable, using always the ground with Adrian Petersson, this time is the other way around, because the opponents' defenses can't just watch the best rusher in the league, but they also have to worry about the good passing game that the Vikings now have. Besides, they also have a nice defense, even if the stats say otherwise, truth is this season the Vikes aren't doing so well like last season, but you should not worry about it yet, at least, not in this game. They really have a good defensive unit, with 7 to 10 top-notch quality players, capable of stopping both the opponent's running game (10th in the season) and the passing game as well, showing also the ability to deliver pressure on the opponent's Quarterback and even getting a lot of sacks in the process (16 this season, 8 only in the last game against the Packers, 1st in the league).

Saint Louis are 0-4 this season, a complete misery, an authentic disaster, only 24 points scored in two games, 108 points conceded... I don't see Rams winning a lot of games this season, not this one for sure, their defense has been horrible, with a lot of key injured players, showing a very bad defensive organization, the team doesn't know what to do against the opponent's offense. If we look to their offense, the Rams are also dreadful in their passing game, and despite having a good rusher, the RB Steven Jackson, this poor fella will face one of the best ground defense units against the rush, and no matter how hard I look into this game, I simply can't see what the Rams can't really do to get a good result in this match.

The Vikings are doing fine, showing good form, they have been well organized, while the Rams are in terrible shape, ineffective as a team, and for me Minnesota will win BIG this game, at least by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 01:35 PM
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sincerely I don't see anything special about this Cowboys this year, it is true that they are capable to fight for the Playoffs, but not much more than that. Terrell Owens could be a troublemaker, but for what I've seen Dallas playing, he is a great loss for this offense and his absence has been very noticed in the Cowboys' passing game. On the other hand, the Dallas' running game is very well served and the team will use it a lot in this match. The Cowboys D is not a safe or a reliable one and they haven't performed at a good level as most of their supporters would expect.

Kansas City has a decent QB but he doesn't have many options available on his offense and despite that, he has attempted and succeeded in getting some points to his team, so we can say that is in the offense that Chiefs have more difficulties, but on this match, I think Matt Cassel can really do some damage. On the defense, Kansas City is not one of the best teams in the league, but it is not one of the worst either, they did a decent job holding the Giants and if they do the same thing against the Cowboys, I believe that are capable to fight till the end for a win in this game.

I'm not seeing the Cowboys winning this game by more than 1 touchdown, in fact I believe the Chiefs have some chances to win this game until the last minute, so I see value on the dog for this match.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 01:53 PM
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati (3-1) has started very well the season, they are 2-0 "perfect" on the road, only a loss on their first game, they had a great win against the Steelers, but I think that against the Ravens this good moment will come to an end. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, but he will have a lot of problems against the outstanding Ravens' run defense. Cincy D has been very well so far and that is perhaps the main reason why the Bengals are having a very nice record this early in the season, but for this game, they will face a good rusher and a QB that is improving game after game and knows how to take the correct decisions throughout the game, what can quite complicate the life to the Bengals' D.

Despite last week defeat, Baltimore (3-1) is still for me one of the best teams in the NFL, very well organized throughout the field, their rushing game and passing game is performing very well, their Offense has scored a lot of points against all the teams they already face this season. Defensively Baltimore is a very strong team, not as strong like last season, but still one of the best in the league, playing very agressively, creating a lot of troubles to the opponents' quarterbacks and they are very strong against the opposition's running game.

After their last loss, and the way it happened, I don't see how the Ravens can possible lose this game and on top they have the home field advantage (2-0 home). Baltimore is a much better team on the offense and on the defense than the Bengals are, and I think they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 02:45 PM
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta (2-1) has a good QB, great quality Wide Receivers, which makes the air offense of the Falcons very dangerous. This is undoubtedly their strong spot, specially if we add their excellent TE Tony Gonzalez to the mix, and it is the Falcons O that will in my opinion make the difference in this game in favor of Atlanta. On the defensive plan, the Falcons had ups and downs, they have not a bad defensive unit, but they rely more on their offense than on their defense during the matches.

San Francisco (3-1) is doing a very nice start, but for this game is up to the 49ers' QB the responsability of solving this game for the West Coast team, if they want to keep winning, because their main rusher will not play and surely Shaun Hill will have to rely more on the passing game, which makes this 49ers' O a little bit predictable for this game. Anyway, is not the offense the best side of this San Francisco team, at least is not the major player in their wins, but their standout defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well, but despite their qualities, I believe that the Falcons O will give the 49ers D a lot of trouble with their WRs and TEs.

For me, the Falcons have a better team than the 49ers in the overall, the 49ers are stronger in the defense while the Falcons have the better offense, but I believe that in this game, the Atlanta Offense will prevail and therefore, I have to go with the small underdog on the road.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 02:59 PM
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Is no news that for me QB Tom Brady will be one day in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as one of the best Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. He his improving is game week after week and therefore, I expect him to play better than in his last game against the Ravens. New England (3-1) has one of the best offenses in the league, playing much better than expect in this season start and with the return of WR Wes Welker, Brady will have again more quality options to pass the ball. If in the early season, the biggest issue with these Patriots was their defense and how they would behave against their opponents' offenses, now we can say that is thanks to their D that the Pats have already 3 wins under their belt. It is a young defensive unit, and they are improving their game week after week.

Denver (4-0) hasn't lost a game yet on this season and the reason for that is their great defense. The Broncos D is playing very well, causing a lot of pressure on the opponents' quarterbacks and they are getting a lot of sacks too, 15 already. Their QB Kyle Orton has been doing a nice season so far, but frankly I think he still has a long road ahead to become a good quarterback. Orton has 5 TD and 0 INTS, but he can be very thankful to his great quality WRs, which are doing excellent catches despite the bad throws delivered by Orton, with several low balls like I saw in his last game against the Dallas Cowboys. If it weren't his WRs getting all those balls with outstanding catches and we would see incomplete after incomplete passes.

New England is playing much better now, specially on the Offense and with the return of Wes Welker, the Patriots will have a broad range of tools to keep the Broncos D busy, and when Brady has that kind of options at his disposal, he plays much better, and this is for me the main factor for a fourth winner of the Pats this season, the first for the small favorite on the road, delivering the Broncos their first loss, and consequently both teams will finish the Week 5 with a 4-1 record. Take the Patriots to win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick : New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 03:16 PM
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Houston (2-2) has showed already that they have a QB and steller WRs, which makes the Texans Offense very powerful. However, their biggest problem is their defense, having a lot of difficulties to stop both the opponents' passing game and running game as well. One of the reasons is the high number of casualties in the defensive unit with several important injured players. So, we have a team that despite being capable of scoring a lot of points in a good day, they will also suffer a lot of points too, thanks to the weaknesses present in their defense right now.

Arizona (1-2) after that last MNF defeat and a shameful home loss display against the Colts, had a Bye Week and they are now returning to competition with another home game and surely we will see this Cards team up and ready to win this game and get their first home win this season. Arizona has a good, seasoned quarterback and Kurt Warner has very good Wide Receivers to play with, the greatest problem with his offense is with the rushing game, which is being very bad, but I believe that on this game, the Cards will seize the opportunity to earn some important yards on the ground against the Texans D. The Arizona's defensive unit had a dismal performance against the Colts and I honestly expect that they had used this Bye Week to deeply review and analyze everything that went wrong in that game, so they can avoid doing again the same mistakes in this match.

I'm not seeing the Cardinals losing two straight games at home, specially when they badly need to win, against a depleted Texans' defense, facing a lot of problems on their own, which Arizona will surely exploit thanks to their great offensive options. I believe in a home win for the Cards and I really trust that Arizona will win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-11-2009, 07:47 PM
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Peyton Manning is in great shape, he is doing his best start ever, he is one of the best Quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. He and Pierre Garçon are getting along very well, working together to decide the games in the Colts' favor very soon in the match and I think that will happen again in this game. If the Colts' O is very good and their performance is enhanced as a unit thanks to their excellent QB, the Indianapolis defense has been also outstanding, playing very well against the both opponents' running game and passing game, making a lot of pressure on the opposition's Quarterback and provoking a lot of errors in the adversaries' offense.

Tennessee has a very good team, their roster is very capable, but they are playing very badly. The Titans D, which once was the heart of the team, is being completely horrible, and they have some important casualties in their secundary, which will complicate their life against the Colts O. The Tennesse offense has been very weak, the team is relying only on their rushing game and they will face a team that is defending very well against the ground offense thisseason.

Historically this Titans' team does well at home against Indianapolis but for what I've seen this season of both teams, I only one winner and that winner is the Colts' team. They have a Quarterback that is playing very well, the Titans' D has been very bad, the Colts' D is being very impressive, mainly against the ground offense, and with all these factors mixed together, I believe that the Colts will win this game easily, specially by the fact that Peyton Manning doesn't have any problems in playing on the road in a Sunday Night Football, no extra pressure for him, he even loves this extra exposure and he even plays better with all the media and public attention focused on him. Henceforth, take the small favorite in the road and please, do me a favor: enjoy the game!


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

TommyGold
10-12-2009, 08:11 PM
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The New York Jets (3-1) offense rely on their rookie QB Mark Sanchez, which is doing a nice NFL career start so far, to get the job done, but he will need a lot of games on his legs to become a good quarterback. The stronger spot of this Jets team this season is their defense, with great performances, being very well organized in the field and playing very well against the opponent's passing game adversário. LB Calvin Pace is returning to the team and he will play a vital role in his team to stop the opponent's rushing game, and for me, he is one of the best players in the league for that particular job. The Jets offense has some ups and downs, but I believe that against Miami's defense, they can get the upper hand.

Miami (1-3) will start again with QB Chad Henne for this game, he is not a bad player, but for me, the only thing he does well is to throw deep and not much else for now. Perhaps he can be a great quarterback in the future, but he has a long way to go. It is true that offensively, the Fins had everything going their way, but this Jets D has nothing to do with the Bills defense, in fact, I think this Miami offense will have huge difficulties in getting something positive from this game in the scoring department, despite having a good rusher, but the Dolphins will face a great running defense, suplemented with the return of LB Calvin Pace. Miami's D has not been very well this season so far and I believe they will have some troubles facing the Jets offense tonight.

Overall, I think that the Gang Green has everything to win this game, their defense has been very strong, the return of Calvin Pace is another advantage for the Jets, and despite being on the road and playing in the Fins home, I believe that the Jets will have more chances to progress down the field and score some points than Miami will against the great Jets defense. So, take the small fav on the road and enjoy the game.


Pick: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

TommyGold
10-13-2009, 07:26 PM
Below are my Week 5 results recap:

27 - Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
28 - Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek (WIN)
29 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (LOSS)
30 - Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes (WIN)
31 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes (LOSS)
32 - Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
33 - Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes (WIN)
34 - New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek (LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3 (Week 5: +1,57 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 18-16 (+0,31 units won/34 units risked);
SIDES: 17-13 (+2,4 units won/30 units risked);
TOTALS 1-3 (-2,09 units lost/4 units risked).

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 03:03 AM
Another week, another round, 10 more picks to play:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 02:26 PM
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Kansas City is still winless but I believe they can get their first win this week, they have improved a lot and QB Matt Cassel is starting to show his good qualities and that he is indeed, a good bet for the Chiefs. Their offense has improved as well, but they still have some problems to solve on their defense and they have to fix it in order to start winning some games.

Washington is having a complicated week, which is never good for a team, they are facing some internal (locker room) issues and they had played badly their last games, relying too much on their Home Games, because on the road, the Redskins are simply clueless. Their offense has not been well, their wins were provided by their defensive unit and that explains why when Washington wins a game, it is by a short difference.

I see here a good chance for the Chiefs to win their first game of the season, the prospect of playing a KAN ML +220 (3,20) is quite tempting, but on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins to win by only 1 FG difference. I think this will be a close and ugly game and I see a lot of value on the pointspread's puppy, so take Kansas City Chiefs plus the points.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 03:11 PM
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Houston defense has several problems and today they face a pretty good offense, which has good options and the Texans will have a hard time to stop them. Houston's O doesn't have a very good rushing game but their excellent passing game makes it up, thanks to the great quality of their Wide Receivers and that is the strong spot of the Texans, but on this match they will face a defense that has played very well lately.

Cincinnati is doing a great season thanks to the balance between their offensive and defensive units, with the former showing a lot of "agression" and doing what has to be done in the decisive moments while the later has been playing quite well too, with their QB Carson Palmer in great shape after recovering from injury, with great options to choose from his array of Wide Receivers, which are performing in great manner. Besides, Cedric Benson is also shining on the rushing game, allowing the Bengals to provoke a lot of damage on their opponents' defenses. Overall, this team is playing quite well in all their departments.

Cincinnati will play in front of their audience and with the way the Bengals are playing and having the home field advantage, I believe this team can win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 03:51 PM
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As all we know, Carolina is a Running Football team, it's where their game is stronger and they will use it again and again today. Their defense has not been quite well this season, but with the return of their great quality safety, I'm sure they will improve for this game. I believe the Panthers will cause a lot of troubles to Bucs D with their rushing game and they will win the game thanks to it.

I don't have much to say about Tampa Bay, it is for me a weak team, specially on their defense, having great difficulties to stop both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, and on their offense, they are having problems to fill the quarterback position, no matter who plays, he won't give any more offensive power to his team, which has only 27 points scored in their last 2 or 3 games, since the Giants were able to defeat the Bucs by 24-0.

Despite playing at home, I don't see that as a major advantage for the Buccaneers, and historically the Panthers get well against this Bucs team if we take in account the last seasons games. With all this factors in mind, I trully believe in another win for the Carolina Panthers by 1 or more touchdowns, so having to lay only 3 points on this game is a nice value proposition.


Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 06:15 PM
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia is in my opinion one of the most powerful teams in the NFL, they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points. Their defense hasn't played bad either, but we should stress that the Eagles have spanked a lot of very low caliber teams, but truth be told, Philadelphia will face a weaker them than those faced by the Eagles.

After their first week display, we could had said that Oakland maybe could have a decent season, but after a few weeks, the reality is grim: their weak offense hurts our eyes, their quarterback is worthless, he throws at random the ball without any quality criteria to his Wide Receivers, which aren't good stuff either and even the rushing game, which should their stronger sector, has been completely out. On the defense, the Raiders have been miserable, I dunno if you watched their last game, but this team on the second half, simply gave up the game, which is a very worrying and troubling sign. Frankly, in my several years NFL experience of watching hundreds of game, these Raiders are absolutely at this moment the worst team I ever seen play in the NFL, but this is just my opinion.

Overall, I can only add that I'm only seeing an Eagles, Eagles and Eagles Big Time Win, I think Philadelphia has everything to win this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 06:52 PM
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

First of all, this is a game of extreme importance to both teams in order to win this division, which makes this game very special for both of them.

Arizona has a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, and this is what their offense an really do, because their rushing game is pratically non-existent, so weak it is. Yet, the great problem this year for this Cards team is their D, sleeping a lot and unable to stop the opponents' passing game, otherwise they are very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, put when the matter at hands is the passing game, they are completely dominated game after game.

Seattle thanks to the comeback of QB Matt Hasselbeck, has their offense immediatly improved and knowing how bad the Cardinals are defending against the passing game, Hasselbeck will surely take advantage f this fact by throwing some deep passes down the field. The SeahawksO is undoubtedly their stronger unit, with great players and a quarterback capable of throwing the ball wherever he wants to. Seattle are usually very strong at home and this is another factor I've in account to consider the Seahawks the best side to win this game.

For me, this is a game that will see a lof or air plays, because both teams play better that way, and since each team doesn't have too much troubles to arrive to the red zone quickly, I believe we'll have a game of a lot of points, I foresee at least 50 points scored in this game, so I see a lot of value on the Over, and besides that, I also like a lot the -3 pointspread for Seahawks, which have the home field advantage and this is a very important game for them to win their division and reach one more time the playoffs, so knowing how good Seattle plays at home, I believe that they are capable to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Picks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 07:38 PM
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Buffalo is a very, very weak team judging by their displays in the last weeks, something that almost everyone already knew before Week 1. With TO already working his charm and doing a lot of damage on the locker room, makes this team's life quite difficult. Their defense has been bad and their offense hasn't showed anything with quality, despite some injuries and having started some rookies. So, again, their prospects are grim.

New York Jets has an excellent defense, despite their lousy display on the last MNF against the Dolphins, but despite that, do not think they don't have a good defensive unit, they are quite good and very agressive, and they will take good care of QB Trent Edwards in this game. This Jets O has showed their capabilities against Miami (which also saw their defense playing below average), playing much better with the return of Calvin Pace and from now on, they will cause a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses.

On this game, I can only see Jets, Jets and Jets, they have the home field advantage and they need to win this game because their main objective is to reach the Playoffs and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points, so take the Jets and lay the points.


Pick: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 08:10 PM
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Tennessee after a season with a nice 10-0, "decided" to change to a 0-5 and probably they will extend this bad start to a 0-6. The Titans D which was their stronger unit, has been awful, and despite some important injuries, they should not been so bad, mainly against the passing game, they haven't been able to stop the opponent's offense and that is the main reason for the Titans having a losing record so far. The Titans O has showed anything yet, they are quite good on the rushing game, but their passing game hasn't got them anywhere, which makes this offensive unit very predictable for the opponent's defense.

New England is in a variable form, or they play quite well or they simply forget how to play this game, but the bad moments have happened more often on the road, because their home record shows good performances and nice wins to lift their morale. They have one of the best quarterbacks ever to set foot in the NFL and have stellar offense, I think on this game we will see WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore exploiting quickly the weak spots that the Titans defense has already showed this season. The Patriots D has played very well so far, if we "discount" some silly mistakes done by the younger players, which is something we should expect in the early season.

Patriots playing at home usually does good performances and doesn't let their backers down, they already had several good wins at home and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points against a (so far) lousy Titans team.

New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-18-2009, 09:38 PM
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Chicago is doing a nice season, they have a decent QB, and RB Matt Forte is unquestionably the team's offensive engine that pushes the team forward down the field, winning yards after yards, which causes a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses, which worry too much about him, allowing Jay Cutler to play some of his passing game as well, which allows the Bears to change a bit their offensive game. On the defensive plan, these Bears aren't that bad either. This Bears D is not one of the classical Bears defenses, very agressive and with a very low degree of permeability. Overall it is a good defense, but they will suffer a lot of damage against the great Falcons O quality.

Atlanta is also doing a good season, which was already somewhat expected. They have a good QB, great Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, which makes this offense one of the most powerful of all the NFL. The Falcons also a good RB Michael Turner, which is showing lately his real value and has done great damage on the opponents defenses. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some problems against the rushing game, but on the last game they showed some improvements.

Knowing that the Falcons at home are a very strong team, knowing that their offense can score easily a lot of points, I believe that Atlanta will greatly benefit from their home field advantage and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

TommyGold
10-19-2009, 08:58 PM
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos (5-0) are doing an excellent season start, defeating the Patriots at home in the last week, defending very well on the second half, but for me Denver got the win because the Pats simply fell asleep after the break. Denver has a decent quarterback, with good stats, but I think that Kyle Orton is just average, and lucky, thanks to his Wide Receivers that are capable to catch almost every bad ball he throws and getting some touchdowns on the Broncos offense, but that is part of the game.

The Chargers are 2-2, what makes this game so important for them, more than for the Broncos. The Chargers cannot lose this game, otherwise their prospects will dim. San Diego comes from a BYE, which is a good thing, because they had time enough to rest and study their opponent for tonight and surely they will do everything to win this game. They have a good quarterback which takes a lot of chances and sometimes throws some interceptions, but he is also capable of leading his team to advance down the field very quickly thanks to his deep passes and this way, get pass thru the oppositions' defenses. San Diego also has good rushers, but they haven't played well this season yet and the team has used more their passing game.

For this game, I expect a win for the Chargers because they had two weeks rest, enough time to change what was wrong in the team and get ready for this match, which is very important for them and they also have the home field advantage, all together, I believe the Chargers will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

TommyGold
10-20-2009, 09:16 PM
Below are my Week 6 results recap:

35 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (6-14: WIN)
36 - Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (17-28: LOSS)
37 - Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (21-28: WIN)
38 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-9: LOSS)
39 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
40 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
41 - Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-16: LOSS)
42 - Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (59-0: WIN)
43 - Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline (21-14: WIN)
44 - Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek (23-34: LOSS)

SIDES: 4-5; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 6: -2,4 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 22-22 (-2,09 units won/44 units risked);
SIDES: 21-18 (+1 unit won/39 units risked);
TOTALS 1-4 (-3,09 units lost/5 units risked).

TommyGold
10-24-2009, 02:23 AM
For NFL 2009 Week 7, I'm leaning on the road dog SFO +3 +100 (2.00) Bookmaker against the small fav HOU -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes, but I can't have a good read for both teams on this game.

I've 11 picks on pointspreads and 2 picks on totals, so follow or fade at your discretion. Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. :)

Sides:

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Totals:

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 02:55 PM
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (4-2) has shown on their last game that they have one of the best offenses in the league, the unit that will play this afternoon in London for the International Series is the same when the season started, but it looks like that QB Tom Brady is improving his game week after week and so does his offensive "counterparts". I think that on this game we will see again WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore quickly exploiting the weak spots of this Bucs defense like they've done against the Titans last week, coupled with the use of Wes Welker on the short passes and with those tools, the Pats will be able to travel fast down the field. The Patriots D has played very well so far, despite some small errors, they have done their job but they are now still performing much better than their O comrades. In fact, the Pats O has failed much more times, not the defense. The rushing game is also doing well and New England will face on of the worst teams defending this king of game.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (0-6) has a lot of injured players on their defense and their secondary is not a great unit either. They show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, but is their rushing game defensive scheme that has shown the worst problems. The Bucs O has not played that bad, they showed a good effort on their last game, but the last time they faced a good defense, they were unable to score a single point, just remember the 0-24 loss at home against the giants, so I don't believe we will see the Bucs scoring a lot of points on this contest either..

This game will be Big Time for Patriots, since they have all the edges, both on the Offense and on the Defense, they have the best quarterback, and this Tampa Bay defense has shown so far that they have much more problems defending the ground offense than stopping the passing game, where the Pats have shown good things. This is a game for the Patriots, playing in front of a lot of european supporters, to win by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 03:57 PM
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers (3-2) have a nice defense, very agressive and when they are playing really well. they are able to nullify the opponent's defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well. The Packers O has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, however this Green Bay offense doesn't have pratically a rushing game, which forces the Packers to abuse from their passing game, which poses some problems to the Packers offense.

Cleveland Browns (1-5) changed their starting quarterback from QB Brady Quinn to QB Derek Anderson, a nice decision by the Browns' head coach by the way, since their offense started to improve, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, but that won't change much their fortunes, because both players for that role are very weak after all, and this Browns O is still having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored per game in average says it all. The Cleveland defense has also improved, but that doesn't mean they are now a good defensive unit, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game, having a lot of problems against that kind of game, thanks to the several problems showed by their secondary so far.

On the road, the Packers are a scoring machine, they average 33 points scored on the road and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scoring that much this afternoon on the Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Packers have a better defense and their passing game should prevail against a weaker defense. I expect Green Bay to score around 30 points and the Browns should not score more than 10 to 13 points, therefore we are having value on the road favorite.


Pick: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 04:19 PM
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-3) for a change are once again starting another season miserably like they did on the previous years, truth is they just need to start winning to have a nice hit streak. They simply cannot lose this game and I'm not seeing a way they could lose this match.

QB Philip Rivers is very reliable, makes good decisions on the field, his passes usually suffer very few interceptions and he has good options in his offense to play with, but the team should change and start using their rushing game more often. I know that RB LaDainian Tomlinson has not played a good game this season, despite the his last performances signaling that an improvement to his good old form is underway, so he can show again to everyone in the league that he is an elite rusher, the talent is all there. The Chargers have also a good defense that can apply a lot of pressure on the opponent's OL, when they are focused in the game, something that we have only seen on their third game so far against he Miami Dolphins, by only allowing a late touchdown on the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) are improving throughout the season, with nice performances on the offense lately thanks to a QB Matt Cassel playing quite well, however he doesn't have many options available on his offense to give continuity to his plays, so overall they aren't able to score too much points in their games. On the defense, Kansas City has also improved, if on their first games they look like the Ozone Hole, now they are playing much better but they still have a lot of problems to stop the opposition's rushing game and the same applies to their secondary and that translates in a lot of troubles to stop the opponent's passing game.

This is a must-win game for the Chargers and there is no doubt that they have the quality to do it, and it is now the time of the season when this San Diego team starts to find itself and playing their best football and I don't expect the Chargers to win this game by less than a touchdown.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 04:37 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) have become one of the best teams of the NFL when they hired QB Brett Favre, giving them more offensive power to their offense. Favre has been terrific this seaon, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very interceptions which is odd, because we all know that despite his quality, he also throws a lot of interceptions, but on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is pratically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses. The Purps defense is also a good and agressive unit as well, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, however they have shown lately a lof of troubles on their Safety positions and that is their weak spot, causing this Minnesota team to suffer a lot of points thanks to these liabilities.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are slowly entering in the expected rithym, they have a quite strong quarterback and that handles sacks without much troubles. This Steelers O has became curiously very predictable, using mostly their passing game, an option I quite understand since is there that the best offensive weapons can do the most damage. The stronger unit of this Pitts team is still their defense, very solid and strong, excellent against the passing game and even better stopping the rushing game, being one of the best on the NFL on this subject.

It is funny that both teams are showing a lot of problems in the fourth quarter, but I believe that the Steelers with the advantage of playing in their home field will not lose this game, we know how strong they are when playing at home with that loud crowd support and I think that Big Ben will exploit the safety position issues of this Minnesota defense, so take the Steelers and lay the points, i expect them to win with at least 1 touchdown of difference.


Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 04:52 PM
Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) have been completely onfire this season and they arrive to the Edward Jones Dome from a bye week, meaning, lock and load to get more wins this season and I don't see them losing this game. The Colts O is very powerful A equipa tem uma offense bastante poderosa, they have QB Peyton Manning has one of the best QB of the league, and he has always at least 4 Receivers to whom he can pass the ball, which makes this offense quite difficult to stop, and they also have a good rushing game. The team has defended very well, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well and they have been very solid and secure.

Saint Louis Rams (0-6) have a lot of problems on their offense, their QB is weak, their offense is weak, if we don't take in account their rushing game, where they have one and only one good player, their main rusher RB Steven Jackson, because the rest of the unit is simple feeble. The Rams D is also very fragile, showing a very bad defensive organization against the passing game and the rushing game as well.

Indianapolis Colts has everything to win this game, at least they should score more than 30 points and I'm not seeing the Rams scoring more than 10 points on this match, so take the Colts and lay the points.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 07:14 PM
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago Bears (3-2) has a nice offense, but their QB Jay Cutler when reaches the Red Zone is unable to transform those opportunities in touchdowns and they have to settle with a Field Goal instead, losing precious points in the process that farther in the game are more than needed... This is a thing that has happened so many times that I've lost count... Despite that, they have a great Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte but so far they were unable to use him as expected on the red zone to score those precious touchdowns. Chicago strong point is their strong Defense, very agressive, and they are doing well against the opponent's rushing game. However, the same cannot be said against the passing game and today they will face a very dangerous team on that matter.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) can play very well or not play at all, this season they played very well against tough opponents, but against lower caliber teams, they simple appear to be a "no show" team... Cincy D has been very well so far, if we forget last week display, we can expect the Bengals giving everything on this game, because they will have a bye week and they are going to play in front of their supporters and since they want to go to the Playoffs, they cannot afford to lose this home games. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game with good Wide Receivers, and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, this player has been very well lately, but knowing how good the Bears play against the ground offense, the Bengals will have to resort more to the passing game, because like I said, the Bears are having troubles on air offense and the Bengals should exploit on this game this option more often.

I expect Cincy to play with enough motivation to win this game straight up.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 08:19 PM
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Buffalo Bills (2-4) will not start QB Trent Edwards and I don't believe in this team. I acknowledge that they have done good games against their division rivals, but on their last game they benefited from 5 interceptions and only won in OT Field Goal, which illustrates quite well their lack of offensive power. On the defensive end, the team has been decent, sometimes they pressure the opponent's quarterback which leads to some mistakes on their opposition's OL, but on the other hand, they show some debilities against the rushing game. Overall, they should have scored more points against the Jets on the last game and that shows their offensive limitations.

Carolina Panthers (2-3) finally understood that their strong spot is their rushing game and they should exploit it, they have a quite powerful OL and that creates nice opportunities to their two rushers to go down the field and for this game I expect them to have at least 200 rushings yards combined. Their defense has not been that bad this season, they are improving on their secondary thanks to recent return of their quality safety, and I don't expect them to have much troubles against the Bills soft offense.

I hope to see the Carolina playing as Running Football team, it is against the ground offense that the Bills D has more difficulties and if the team keeps pressing that key on this game, they have everything they need to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns, because we should not expect much from the soft Bills O.


Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 08:20 PM
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

New York Jets (3-3) will try to avoid on the road their fourth straight defeat and they will not have an easy life on this game, because they will play on a field where they usually show a lot of troubles. The rookie QB Mark Sanchez after doing one of the best starts of a rookie quarterback in the NFL, has suffered how hard it is to be in a rookie's quarterback shoes, being the main target of several Blitzes, followed with more Blitzes, which doesn't give him much time to think, His OL has been unable to stop those blitzes so far and now Sanchez doesn't have all that time he had in the early season to make his calls and we can see that on his stats too. The Jets D continues to be very good, both against the running game and the passing game as well, but right now, the biggest problem the Jets are facing is really their lack of ability to score points in the offense.

Oakland Raiders (2-4) has a quarterback that is nothing special, but he is improving game after game, mainly in his passes completion % and avoiding the oppositions' sacks. The Raiders D when motivated is not a bad defense after all, Richard Seymour already warned that they will not play again with that lack of motivation they showed in other games, and that their gameplan has a lot of pressure against QB Mark Sanchez. Richard Seymour also said that the Raiders want to go to the Playoffs too, but on that matter, I believe that this ambition is more to drive the team down the field to have some objective to fight for.

This is a tough game for the Jets and how things are going on, I wouldn't be too much surprised if the Raiders win this one straight up, I foresee a very close game.


Pick: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 08:20 PM
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) are doing a nice season, their good QB despite his youth is showing much quality by making the right calls and with great displays and the best sector of this Falcons team is undoubtedly their offense,with 2 great Wide Receivers and one of the best TE on the league, with makes this offense quite powerful and difficult to stop. Yet, on the rushing game, despite having a good rusher, they were unable so far to have good results on the field when carrying the ball, however their passing game has been enough to compensate their lack of power on the ground offense. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some big problems against the rushing game in the past, but on the last games they showed great improvements, still they aren't a great defense on that matter, but there are on the league teams that defend worse than the Falcons against the ground offense

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) doesn't have a bad offense, but is not that powerful offense of the previous seasons. QB Tony Romo loses his head a lot of times and throws the ball at random, which makes one believe that they should rely more often on their rushing game, but the biggest issued with this team is really on their defense, with their secondary and mainly their safeties playing very badly, and that is having a serious impact on the Dallas D performance, they had suffered a lot of points and if they don't improve soon, starting today, they will have big troubles against the Falcons offense.

The best strategy for the Falcons is to start the game early in the lead to force QB Tony Romo to commit the same usual mistake, which is, instead of rushing the ball, is to throw the ball and that is a great advantage for the Falcons, which at this time have the best team and are quite capable of winning this match straight up.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 08:52 PM
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints (5-0), have been terrific on the offense ataque, QB Drew Brees is showing to be one of the best on the the league and he shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field, destrying the oppositions' defenses completely. The Saints also have outstanding Wide Receivers and a good rushing game, which is not used very often. But the success of this team is due to their defense, which has improved from the last season, playing quite well against both the rushing game and the passing game as well.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) are a good team on the running game, with several options on that ground offense, they use the Wildcat formation very well and that makes life very hard to the opponents' defenses. For me, that won't work against the Saints, if the Fins play like that, they will lose by a 3 Touchdowns margin at least, if they want to win this game, they have to play it relying more on the passing game, playing like the Saints do, and they have a good quarterback capable of throwing deep balls. The great problem on the Dolphins D is on his safeties and that is a plus for me, because I expect the Saints to crush this defense.

The only explanation for seeing a Saints -6 spread is that the Dolphins had a bye week, but that won't stop the powerful Saints O, this is a game that can have a lot of points and I expect New Orleans to win this match by 37-20.


Picks: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-25-2009, 09:58 PM
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) are improving week after week, with a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, which makes this offense quite strong and difficult to stop. The Cards D is very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, but it is also true that they are having a lot of troubles to stop the opponents' passing game. I expect them to repeat the same strategy employed in their last game by doing "blitzes" against the opponent's QB, but they will face a strong OL, which should give enough time to Eli Manning to do his Passing Game.

New York Giants (5-1) after the humillianting defeat against the Saints in New Orleans Saints will surely return to the wins. They have a very strong offense, starting with the franchise QB Eli Manning and with excellent young wide receivers, besides a good OL capable of giving the time needed for their QB to make his calls. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, until they faced a powerful offense and were completely thrashed, leaving too much room for the opponent's WRs, which translated in too many points conceded in their last game.

This will be a great game to watch, with good WRs and QBs always ready to score points and with "soft" defenses, which will make this match interesting, close and with a lot of points scored, something around 30-27.


Pick: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
10-26-2009, 08:06 PM
Yesterday we started 5-0 with the 01:00 PM EST games and ended the day with an 8-4.


For the Week 7 Monday Nighf Football, I'm going with road favorite previously posted:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) comes from a humiliating defeating in Oakland where they were a simply "no show" and I don't believe that they will do such a lousy game again this season. they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points, but they had a soft schedule so far this season. I think that the Eagles will use RB Brian Westbrook more often on this game, for me that was the biggest problem on their last game against the Raiders, he was rarely used on the offense on that game, that and some lack of drive and motivation.

Washington Redskins (2-4) continue to have internal problems inside the organization which is never a good thing for a NFL team. The Redskins QB Jason Campbell is under a lot of pressure which is not a good thing for the team and that is reflecting on the passing game. Their wins were against teams (Rams & Bucs) that don't scare anyone on this league. The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

I trully don't believe Philadelphia losing this game and with all those problems affecting the Redskins, I believe that the Eagles will win this game big time, scoring a lot of points.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

TommyGold
10-27-2009, 07:19 PM
Below is my Week 7 results recap:

45 - San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (7-37: WIN)
46 - Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (6-42: WIN)
47 - Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-31: WIN)
48 - Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (27-17: WIN)
49 - New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (7-35: WIN)
50 - New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-38: LOSS)
51 - Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek (9-20: LOSS)
52 - Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (45-10: WIN)
53 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-46: WIN)
54 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (34-46: WIN)
55 - Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek (37-21: LOSS)
56 - Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (17-24: LOSS)
57 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek (17-27: WIN)

SIDES: 8-3; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 7: +4,47 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 31-26 (+2,38 units won/57 units risked);
SIDES: 29-21 (+5,52 unit won/50 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3,14 units lost/7 units risked).

I'm winning 59,09% on chalk (favorites) and i'm winning 58% on pointspreads... Let's see if I can end the season with a decent winning percentage (55% at least) on all my NFL 2009 regular season picks...

TommyGold
10-31-2009, 03:15 AM
For NFL 2009 Week 8, I've only 7 pointspreads to risk:

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes; HOU -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. :)

TommyGold
10-31-2009, 04:26 AM
ACHTUNG/ ATENTION: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: NYG +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek is incorrect. My mistake.


This is the correct line:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica



Folks, I'm aware that most of the decent offshores sportsbooks have now NYG -1 -110 (1.91), but since Bet Jamaica has a nice $5K USD pointspread wager/stakes limit for the NFL, I'm gonna take it, if it is not a problem to all of you. :)

TommyGold
11-01-2009, 04:31 PM
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes


--

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

It seems that the Dallas Cowboys offensive unit is starting to fall in place, their running game has been better week after week and QB Tony Romo appears to have found his favorite target, WR Miles Austin, which on the last 2 games made 16 catches for 421 yards, so surely the Seahawks D will keep an eye on Austin and because of this, I believe that WR Jason Witten might have a great game this week too. With the Cowboys O playing as expected again, knowing that the Seahawks defense is having huge troubles to stop the both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, I see big difficulties for them to stop the Dallas offense, aggravated by the absence of MLB Lofa Tatupu which will further complicate matters.

Dallas are quite favorite for this game in my oppinion, despite the Cowboys defense not being anything special, this Seahawks offense has done nothing too, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been forced to throw short and that has complicated a lot their points prospects. With the Cowboys playing at home and if they keep playing like they have done lately, they can win this game with a lot of points, so I believe in a Dallas win by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

--

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

QB Donovan McNabb is having a lot of problems against teams that do a lot of blitzes and we saw it already against the Giants this season, so he will surely be targeted again with a lot of the Giants' blitzes, one of the good things of this New York team. The Giants despite their last 2 games where the defense has not been well, that doesn't mean that they can't take good care of the Eagles offense. The Eagles' rushing game will be only rookie RB LeSean McCoy, because RB Brian Westbrook is injured and probably will not play this game, which hurts a lot the ground offense prospects of Philadelphia and therefore the Giants defense will focus more on the opponent's passing game.

The Eagles defense are having some difficulties even against some minor offenses, so this afternoon they will have a lot of problems to stop this Giants O, which besides QB Eli Manning, has good options on the WR position, with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and they will surely be able to deliver some damage on the ground offense thanks to 2 excellent rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, 2 very explosive rushers that can cause a lot of troubles to the Eagles D.

For me the Giants have the edge both on the defense and on the offense, thanks to RB Brian Westbrook injury, which leaves the Eagles with less offensive options, Eli Manning has a nice record on the road against Philadelphia and it is one of his favorite places to play, which is a normal thing since he has always won there and I believe the Giants will have a good game this afternoon an I expect them to win.

Pick: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-01-2009, 05:52 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

This will be again a very special game for QB Brett Favre and I think we will come out winning again. On their first encounter, the Packers were extremely focused in stopping the Vikes rushing game, so Brett Favre did 24/31 on passing, therefore Green Bay will face a major dilemma today, if they focus too much on RB Adrian Peterson, Favre solves the game, if they take too much attention to the Purps' passing game, Adrian Peterson solves the game, meaning that this Vikings O is very complete and has good weapons for every kind of offensive game.

The Vikings D is also very good, but we must not forget that QB Aaron Rodgers did an excellent game against this same defense, specially in the last quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the Packers a win. Green Bay will surely use more often their passing game, because their ground offense has no solutions against the Minny run defense.

This game will be played in a familiar territory for Favre and that will be surely another motivation factor for him, since arriving to the Vikings he has become a more calm quarterback, making the right calls and never risking random throws, because he knows that RB Adrian Peterson is at his disposal.

For me, Minnesota could have won against Pittsburgh on the road, they have shown a lot of quality during these 7 weeks and they have a better defense than the Packers, they have a better offense and they have the best rusher of the NFL, so I believe that the Vikings will win this game SU.


Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

TommyGold
11-01-2009, 06:29 PM
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing much better lately, specially on their defense against the opponents' passing game, and now they really look like that team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Arizona is using on the last weeks RB Tim Hightower as a short pass option for QB Kurt Warner and that is a major complication for the opponents' defenses, which already have to worry about Warner's deep throws to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, 2 excellent wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers on the offense has nothing to offer besides their rushing game with RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart and that is a big problem for the Panthers, because right now, the Cardinals are the NFL's best team stopping the opponent's rushing game. Knowing how bad this Carolina team is on the passing game, their QB Jake Delhomme is one the worst in the league according to the season's rankings, same goes to his wide receivers, we will not see much of this Carolina offense today.

With the Cardinals playing at home and doing much better now, their offense will prevail over the Panthers D and this Carolina offense doesn't have options to complicate matters for the Cardinals defense, so I expect a home win by 2 or more touchdowns.


Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-01-2009, 07:18 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Tennesse QB Vince Young will start today thanks to the pressure of the Titans' CEO and to be honest, I don't think this will be a good ideia. When you play against the Jaguars, you should always press their secondary, because they only have 5 sacks this season and that is by far their biggest defensive problem. I'm aware that they had two weeks to adjust their offense to the new quarterback, but I doubt that it will be enough time to create the needed automatisms in the Titans' offense.

It is true that both teams prefer to play the Rushing Game, RB Chris Johnson for the Titans, a great rusher, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jags, who did 7 touchdowns on his last 4 games, which makes both teams even on this chapter. However, the Jacksonville defense is not that bad in stopping the opponent's rushing game.

The great upset for the Titans defense is on their secondary, a real mess, with a lot of injuries on that unit, and that has been exploited by the opponents' quarterbacks. QB David Garrard can be very confortable inside the pocket, because the Titans' front four can't deliver any pressure against the opposition's quarterback, and that will give David Garrard enough time for him to lead is team forward.

Garrard has been quite well this season, calling the right plays and Maurice Jones-Drew has been awesome lately, so if we have Garrard on a good day, surely the Jaguarscan win this game SU.


Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-02-2009, 08:37 PM
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

If the Falcons defense keeps playing like they did lately, then they will face a great nightmare in New Orleans. They are being very vulnerable both against the running game and the passing game and the only way I see Atlanta to fight for the win in this game is to nullify the Saints' rushing game and mainly to deliver pressure and to sack the QB Drew Brees, which is a thing I doubt will happen today.

Atlanta offense has a good QB Matt Ryan, great quality Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, but on the last games, Matt Ryan has been playing very badly and is making several bad calls during the games and that has translated in losses for the Falcons

The New Orleans Saints have always been a very powerful team on the offense, but what makes this team really dangerous is the way how this team has found their balance. Not only they attack very well but also they are capable now of defending very well too, which has shown great results for the Saints.

Until now, stopping the Saints has been practically impossible, the ease how New Orleans has their quarterback throwing deep balls is awesome and the Saints have also been very good on the rushing game, which makes it even more complicated to defend against this powerful offense. If we take in account the fact that the Saints D has also been impressive, with a lot of interceptions under their belt and a good man coverage, then you really have to give to this New Orleans team their due credit and acknowledge an edge for this game.

The Saints when playing at home, are extremely difficult to beat, they have a tremendous crowd support and despite the last hick up in Miami, the team is in great shape and is surely one of the main contenders to be on the next Super Bowl this season. For this game, I'm going to take New Orleans and I believe they will win by 2 or more touchdowns


New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

callitasicit
11-03-2009, 06:13 AM
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

If the Falcons defense keeps playing like they did lately, then they will face a great nightmare in New Orleans. They are being very vulnerable both against the running game and the passing game and the only way I see Atlanta to fight for the win in this game is to nullify the Saints' rushing game and mainly to deliver pressure and to sack the QB Drew Brees, which is a thing I doubt will happen today.

Atlanta offense has a good QB Matt Ryan, great quality Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, but on the last games, Matt Ryan has been playing very badly and is making several bad calls during the games and that has translated in losses for the Falcons

The New Orleans Saints have always been a very powerful team on the offense, but what makes this team really dangerous is the way how this team has found their balance. Not only they attack very well but also they are capable now of defending very well too, which has shown great results for the Saints.

Until now, stopping the Saints has been practically impossible, the ease how New Orleans has their quarterback throwing deep balls is awesome and the Saints have also been very good on the rushing game, which makes it even more complicated to defend against this powerful offense. If we take in account the fact that the Saints D has also been impressive, with a lot of interceptions under their belt and a good man coverage, then you really have to give to this New Orleans team their due credit and acknowledge an edge for this game.

The Saints when playing at home, are extremely difficult to beat, they have a tremendous crowd support and despite the last hick up in Miami, the team is in great shape and is surely one of the main contenders to be on the next Super Bowl this season. For this game, I'm going to take New Orleans and I believe they will win by 2 or more touchdowns


New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

How do you feel about that crappy loss huh?? What a stupid call by Payton to keep rushing instead of taking a knee!!! Why would they use Mike Bell anyways in that situation? I am just slightly pissed off, as you can probably tell. Should have had that cover though.

ryan23
11-03-2009, 05:45 PM
New orleans cant defend simple as, Miami walked through them week before, Turner did the same last night, Orleans win because they score atleast 3 on offense everytime, i must say i'm impressed with Piere Thomas, he is getting better and better

TommyGold
11-03-2009, 08:58 PM
Below is my Week 8 results recap:

58 - Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-31: WIN)
59 - Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (38-17: WIN)
60 - New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (40-17: LOSS)
61 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (30-13: LOSS)
62 - Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (26-38: WIN)
63 - Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (21-34: LOSS)
64 - Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (35-27: LOSS)

SIDES: 3-4; (Week 8: -1.13 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 34-28 (+1.25 units won/64 units risked);
SIDES: 32-25 (+4.39 units won/57 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).

I've to improve my reads, too many pointspreads (12-12) won/lost by 10 or more points on the last 4 weeks...

TommyGold
11-03-2009, 09:05 PM
How do you feel about that crappy loss huh?? What a stupid call by Payton to keep rushing instead of taking a knee!!! Why would they use Mike Bell anyways in that situation? I am just slightly pissed off, as you can probably tell. Should have had that cover though.


NOS only had 1 timeout remaining, but those "butter hands" had to produce another turnover. :(


New orleans cant defend simple as, Miami walked through them week before, Turner did the same last night, Orleans win because they score atleast 3 on offense everytime, i must say i'm impressed with Pierre Thomas, he is getting better and better

I've seen some impressive catches from New Orleans that were simply awesome. This Saints team plays much better "under pressure" or when they have to deliver, not when they have a nice lead, on those situations, their concentration gets soft... :(

ryan23
11-04-2009, 01:26 AM
Yes there were some awesome catches from Shockey and Colston

TommyGold
11-07-2009, 06:02 PM
For NFL 2009 Week 9, I've only 5 pointspreads to risk:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker;

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker;

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

ryan23
11-07-2009, 07:04 PM
Not tempted by the Jags this weekend?

TommyGold
11-08-2009, 02:39 PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come from a Bye Week and had enough time to study the Ravens and will surely be fit for this game. Baltimore after 3 straight losses were able to win their last game in a surprising way, still the team will have to raise their game to beat the Bengals on the road.

Baltimore's defense was undoubtedly their strong spot and was regarded as the best of the NFL, but with the transfer of Rex Ryan to the New York Jets team, we have seen a lot of mistakes done by the Ravens' D and their opponents had taken advantage of those errors. On the other hand, we have a good QB Carson Palmer who usually plays very well against Baltimore and he has good chances to do deep passes on this game with WR Chad Ochocinco as the main target. On the Running Game, Cincinnati has RB Cedric Benson playing very well this season and he has been reliable game after game.

Cincy is having a lot of difficulties on focus against average teams, their motivation seems to never be the better, but against top teams, they always give their best and on this season, they are being quite successful, their defense has been quite well too, mainly against the opponents' running game. I see a lot of troubles for RB Ray Rice to do a good game today and the same goes to QB Joe Flacco and his deep passes para o WR Derrick Mason, which will be today a risky proposition because Cincy D has been playing very well against the passing game too.

This season I consider these Bengals a serious contender for the playoffs, with an excellent defense and offense so far, as long Carson Palmer remains healthy, and for this game, Cincinnati has the edge on all the match ups (defense, offense, running game and QB position) and their home field advantage will surely help the small home dog Bengals to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

TommyGold
11-08-2009, 03:22 PM
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Arizona this season reminds me a New York Giants that had bad home games but on the road were able to win all their matches and the same thing is happening this year to these Cardinals, which are playing much better on the road than at home. Arizona was completely dominated by Carolina's rushing game last week, still the Cards are one of the best teams to stop that kind of offense. RB Matt Forte will surely have some difficulties on his rushing game because I believe that Arizona will surely show much more attitude on that defensive aspect during this game thanks to what happened last week.

Arizona's running game is not one of the best in the league, despite RB Tim Hightower has shown some improvements lately this season, but we all know how good the Cards are on the passing game, with a good QB Kurt Warner on the road and excellents WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin as main targets. The great problem with the Chicago Bears team has been their offense, the defense is doing their job, QB Jay Cutler shakes a lot when the offensive game becomes obvious for the Bears O, meaning that when the team goes for the Passing Game only, Jay Cutler is not cut for the task and suffers interceptions, 11 this season.

For this game, besides the home field advantage, the only edges I give for the Bears are the running game and the passing defense, because on the air offense the Cardinals are a much more superior team and I think that it will be on the passing game that a good and experienced Warner will give us the edge for this game against a shaky Jay Cutler when pressured to make the right calls, so I believe that Arizona will win this game straight up as a small road dog.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

TommyGold
11-08-2009, 04:25 PM
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

It is a fact that both teams are having a very bad season so far, the Detroit Lions (1-6) not even with QB Matthew Stafford cannot stop losing games after games, which is understandable since is his rookie year on the NFL, but because the team has several injured players in key positions and the main absence of this Lions team is their best player, WR Calvin Johnson. Without him, the team can't score much more points and that is a bad thing, because this team suffers a lot of points.

The Lions D is very bad, they conceded a lot of points and on the road games, they are a complete mess, usually suffering around 30+ points which is ridiculous. Without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford is in deep trouble, because the Lions' rushing game with RB Kevin Smith is not a big deal either, so we have a Detroit Lions team with a weak offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL on the points allowed ranking.

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) this season have not convinced, it is true that QB Matt Hasselbeck has missed some games, but even with him the team has been far away of what was being expected of the Seahawks this season, yet they play at home today and it's never easy to play in Seattle and they will face one of the worst teams of the NFL. Against lousy teams like the Rams, they didn't suffer a single point and against the Jaguars the end result was a clear 41-0. It's on the road games that they are completely dominated.

Why I see value on this point spread of the Seahawks is easy to explain. The team as a good quarterback and Hasselbeck has good receivers to pass the ball like WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh and WR Nate Burleson, which will surely cause a lot of damage on the weak Lions' defense and even on the rushing game RB Julius Jones will be able to do a good game, because Detroit defense is also weak against this kind of offense.

Again, it's true that the Seahawks has convinced anyone this season, but they have a good team and playing at home against the worst team of the NFL right now, I believe that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
11-08-2009, 08:04 PM
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF)

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) despite their last match has not been their best game, they had showed good performances on the last weeks. QB Tony Romo has found a new buddy to whom he can trust the ball: WR Miles Austin. He has been the key for Dallas to win the last games, but on this game the Cowboys offense will face on the road a better defense than any of the defenses they had encounter on the previous 3 matches and that is the reason why they had won those games.

The Cowboys team has a good rushing game thanks to their RB Marion Barber and RB Felix Jones, who are very strong and they always win good yards for Dallas. The passing game seems to work well too, with Miles Austin e TE Jason Witten, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet on the road such a good defense like the Eagles D, if we exclude the home loss on the Week 2 against the New York Giants, and we should not forget that Tony Romo always trembles on these high profile marquee games when it's time to make difficult calls.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) has also improved this season, because his offensive line has been able to give their QB Donovan McNabb enough time for him to solve the situation and his passes are rarely intercepted. He is doing a fantastic season and usually makes the right calls, if the Eagles' OL are able once again to give him enough time inside the pocket, Donovan McNabb will certainly cause a lot of damage on the Cowboys defense, which is nothing special, thanks to WR DeSean Jackson e TE Brent, whom will be a true danger to Dallas D.

The return to good form of the Eagles' rushing game is also good news for Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy has done good performances, but with RB Brian Westbrook back, he is one of the best rushers of the NFL, the Eagles offense will show a nice versatility and do heavy damage on the Cowboys defense.

The way Philadelphia has played lately at home and with the home field advantage, plus the loud support of their crowd, makes this Eagle team the right small home favorite and I expect them to win this game by at least one touchdown.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

TommyGold
11-09-2009, 05:09 PM
Not tempted by the Jags this weekend?


I'm sorry for the late reply. That team is kinda hard to read, I don't know what to expect from them in motivation terms. :(

TommyGold
11-09-2009, 08:55 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF)

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) are playing much better lately and they had returned to their old form which gave them the title last season and Denver was slaughtered by the Ravens last week, so this is a very promising game between one team that wants to continue winning and another one which wants to return to success.

Denver Broncos (6-1) are doing a great campaign, showing a good defense, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well and that is what is giving them winnings. QB Kyle Orton is doing a good season and he has proven me wrong about him sometimes this season, because I think he is just an average quarterback, but he has been able to make good calls on the field and his partners WR Brandon Marshall and WR Jabar Gaffney have been playing very well too. Their running game is easy to predict because they only use RB Knowshon Moreno and he will hardly do anything today against one of the best rushing defenses of the NFL.

Pittsburgh started bad the season with 2 wins and 2 losses on the first 4 games but on their last 4 games the team has played much better, their defense has returned to normal, delivering great pressure on the opponent's quarterback, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has also improved his offense and his connection with WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes is doing again heavy damage on the opposite's defenses and even their rushing game with RB Willie Parker and RB Rashard Mendenhall are going forward down the field.

After a lousy start, the Steelers are again on top and the Broncos last week had faced a defense that always causes great problems against the opponent's quarterback thanks to their pressure, and I believe that this Pitts D will be able to do the same thing, by delivering a lot of pressure and getting some sacks in the process, complicating things to the Broncos defense. For me, the Steelers is the most complete team on this game and despite playing on the road, I believe that they will be able to win this MNF.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2,5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

ryan23
11-10-2009, 01:41 AM
I'm sorry for the late reply. That team is kinda hard to read, I don't know what to expect from them in motivation terms. :(

No problem my friend, yes they are a funny side, infact they are pretty weak especially the QB, without Maurice jones drew their offense isnt to good,

TommyGold
11-10-2009, 06:18 PM
Below is my Week 9 results recap:

65 - Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (17-7: WIN)
66 - Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (21-41: WIN)
67 - Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (32-20: WIN)
68 - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (16-20: LOSS)
69 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-28: WIN)

SIDES: 4-1; (Week 8: +2.44 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 38-29 (+3.69 units won/69 units risked);
SIDES: 36-26 (+6.83 units won/62 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).

Winning 55% so far, not bad. :P

TommyGold
11-10-2009, 06:42 PM
No problem my friend, yes they are a funny side, infact they are pretty weak especially the QB, without Maurice jones drew their offense isnt to good,

That's why I think these teams are hard to read when you're not playing against them. :P

ryan23
11-11-2009, 03:46 AM
4-1 good stuff :yeah:

TommyGold
11-11-2009, 11:03 PM
Many thanks, ryan23. :)

TommyGold
11-12-2009, 08:11 PM
For the Week 10 Thursday Night Football game, I've this pick:


Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Chicago Bears (4-4) on their last 4 games, only managed to win once and it was against the weak Cleveland Browns at home, on the other 3 games against good teams, they were completely dominated, specially against the Cincinatti Bengals and against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Francisco 49ers (3-5) are win-less 4 games in a row, a streak that started with the Falcons massacre and continued losing until last week, with 3 games lost with a play difference, thus they managed to keep their games somewhat close.

Chicago Bears are at the moment playing badly, thanks to their secondary, which has been completely dominated by teams with a good passing game. They have important players missing in the team, mainly SS Al Afalava. If things are not pretty in the Bears defense thanks to secondary problems, it only gets worse because they can't stop the opponents' rushing game. And things can get more ugly for the Bears, because on the other side we have one of the best league rushers, RB Frank Gore, whom rarely fumbles the ball and has a 5.6 yards per carry average (YPC).

QB Jay Cutler has a good arm, but his bigger problem is when he faces a good defense that pressures to well the opponents' quarterback, which is the case of the 49ers defense. When that happens, Jay Cutler doesn't know what to do the ball and he throws completely at random and I think that on this game, he will have again big troubles to have enough time to make good calls and if that happens, Jay Cutler will suffer some passes intercepted plus a lot of incomplete passes.

Lately, Jay Cutler's main weapon has been TE Greg Olsen, who scored on the last game 3 touchdowns against Arizona, surely he won't do again do such a performance so soon, because the 49ers defend quite well and because their defensive unit will be more focused on this game than the Cards D, which had already the game won and didn't cared too much with Greg Olsen.

As Wide Receivers, Chicago counts with WR Earl Bennet, an average player, and WR Devin Hester who has 3 touchdowns scored and a 13.4 yards YPC, which means that Devin Hester is dangerous thanks to his top speed, but the Bears against aggressive defenses haven't been able to do much.

The Bears' rushing game results are sub par on the last weeks, we all know that RB Matt Forte (3.6 YPC) is a very good player, but is has not been lately on his best form, besides RB Garrett Wolfe is injured, so there is no quality backup to give Matt Forte some rest, which means that Chicago will have to play much more by the air, which makes their offense more predictable and that can be very dangerous when you play against a aggressive defense like the one displayed by the 49ers.

San Francisco is going again with QB Alex Smith as the starting quarterback and I agree with this decision, he is undoubtedly the best quarterback of the team and for this offense he is the most suited player to lead this team, having good options on the wide receivers and tight end positions. I think that the 49ers will launch at least 3 wide receivers for this game, WR Josh Morgan (13.8 YPC) who is improving week after week, WR Isaac Bruce (12.2 YPC) and the rookie WR Michael Crabtree (11,9 YPC), a very good player to match with the kind of quarterback like Alex Smith.

San Francisco also has on the best league's tight ends, TE Vernon Davis, who is the main target for the 49ers quarterback. Thanks to this new offense that San Francisco is trying to implement, the 49ers can complicate very much the life of the Bears' secondary and that might be the key for San Francisco to win this game. They also have a good rushing game, so if Chicago focus more on defending the 49ers' passing game, RB Frank Gore (5.6 YPC) will take care of business by the ground, which makes this offense very dangerous for the Bears' defense. Frank Gore has been great this season so far, he has already scored 5 touchdowns and has only 1 fumble.

San Francisco defense is very good against the rushing game, and RB Matt Forte will not have an easy task today. Against the passing game the 49ers D is not that bad either, but is not that effective when compared against the opponents' ground offense, but they have shown good qualities (aggressiveness and pressure) when they face a strong opposition's passing game, being the games against the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts two good examples, even if the Colts didn't played with a 100% commitment level, since they are close to clinch a playoffs berth.

In short, with San Francisco having a good defense and knowing that they will surely deliver a lot of pressure against Jay Cutler, we can expect some costly errors from the Bears' quarterback. The 49ers rushing game is one of the best lately and the Bears D has a lot of gaps against this kind of offense, so I expect a long night for Chicago on this field. The 49ers O in the passing game is improving and Alex Smith is the best match for his receivers and this is for me the biggest edge for San Francisco on this game, since the Bears' secondary has some important players missing due to injuries, which is translating in bad performances on their last games against good offensive teams.

This will be a short week for both teams, specially for Chicago who has to travel and with the important home field advantage for the 49ers, I believe that they will have enough commitment and enthusiasm to win this game at least by 1 touchdown.


Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 125 (1.80) Bookmaker

TommyGold
11-14-2009, 12:06 AM
For NFL 2009 Week 10, I've only 5 more point spreads and 2 totals to risk:

Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts: New England Patriots +3 -125 The Greek and Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

I love the New England Patriots ML +125 The Greek too, but for the record on NFL 2009, I'll just keep playing the pointspreads.

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 02:21 AM
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins


Denver Broncos (6-2) after a very nice start winning their first 6 games, have conceded 2 losses against Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Washington Redskins (2-6) are in a deep crisis after 5 straight losses, which makes this game a very important one for both teams, but mainly for the Broncos who have the San Diego Chargers right behind them on the division standings.

QB Kyle Orton started the season with very good performances, but when he faced two teams that really know how to pressure the opponents' quarterback, he started to shake and wasn't unable to develop is usual game. Good news is that the Washington Redskins aren't quite the Ravens or the Steelers regarding defensive pressure and I think that we will see Kyle Orton going back to his old form in the early season.

Denver offense is quite good on the passing game and there is a simple reason for that: Broncos have two great quality players in the wide receivers positions, which are WR Jabar Gaffney and WR Brandon Marshall. Having these two great targets is very good because there are a lot of times that Orton doesn't throw correctly the ball but those two guys are always able to catch the ball and win good yards for their team.

Broncos' rushing game counts with the rookie RB Knowshon Moreno who's doing a great first season (3.7 YPC) and RB Correll Buckhalter (5.5 YPC). The ground offense is not the stronger suit of the Denver offense and that is why the team relies a lot more on the passing game than usual, which is understandable. Besides, they also have TE Daniel Graham who from time to time is a good option to pass the ball.

Denver defense is also very good, mainly against the opponents' passing game, the team is able to do a good coverage and is also capable to pressure the opponents' quarterbacks, causing several sacks. Stopping the running game is another matter, they had struggled a bit on their last games, but even on this subject luck seems to be on the Broncos side, because RB Clinton Portis will not play and an easier task is expected when having to face RB Ladell Betts. I expect the Redskins to choose to play much more by the air than using their ground offense and it is against the passing game that the Broncos D will make the difference.

Washington promised a lot but it was only promises, the Redskins lost their focus and the mood in the team is awful and even the supporters seem to be much more against the team than otherwise and with all these facts against the home team, it is hard for Washington to do something interesting in the remaining season, when the team has already quit on itself.

QB Jason Campbell has intermittent performances, he is able to mix a series of good calls with a series of bad calls and because of that he has almost the same number of interceptions (8) than touchdowns passes (9). It is also true that is has limited options on his offense to play with, because without WR Santana Moss, the team doesn't have anyone else with enough quality to pass the ball. WR Chris Cooley and TE Fred Davis surely aren't the best options to play with against an excellent Broncos' passing defense.

Without Clinton Portis, the Skins ground offense will have to rely on RB Ladell Betts and he is an unknown factor for this Washington rushing offense. For what I know, Ladell Betts is not a great rusher, but he belongs to that kind of rushers who make catches and with this option, I see two problems for the Redskins: if they don't go with the rush, the Broncos D will punish Jason Campbell very hard and get some sacks, if they use him a lot more on this game, then there are some good chances for the Denver defense to escape from big troubles, because defending against the rush is the weak spot of the Broncos D.

The Skins D is average against the opponents' rushing game, but when the matter at hand is the passing game, they really show great difficulties to stop it, which can be lethal against the Broncos O, because we know that Denver offense doesn't use much the running game, they will prefer to keep attacking the Redskins secondary and with the two wide receivers the Broncos have, I can't blame them, I see a lot of troubles for this Washington defense to stop them.

Denver has the best team and the greater motivation to win this game, they need to keep a safe distance from the San Diego Chargers on the league standings, while the Redskins apparently have already quit on themselves like everyone else in Washington, and with the Broncos offensive quality already displayed this season, against an offense that in the entire season wasn't capable to produce anything outstanding, I think the Denver Broncos will win this game by at least 1 touchdown.


Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 04:30 AM
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers


Atlanta Falcons (5-3) needs to win in order to get a good seed position for the postseason with a Wild Card, they are currently tied with the same record as Arizona and Philadelphia, while Carolina Panthers (3-5) has at least 5 teams in front of them for the NFL 2009 Playoff Race, has all the pressure one team can have if they still want to have a slight chance to win a spot on the playoffs.

QB Matt Ryan on the last weeks has dropped a bit his rhythm and has suffered some interceptions but I rate this sophomore as a great quarterback who makes good calls and knows how to make this offense work properly. Matt Ryan tools at his disposal are many, on the wide receivers positions we have WR Roddy White who has a 14.3 yards per catch average and WR Michael Jenkins (12.8 AVG), plus the one of the best tight end of the NFL, TE Tony Gonzalez.

If the Falcons' passing game is very powerful with all this weapons, the Atlanta offense becomes much more dangerous when we have a RB Michael Turner who has been excellent on the last weeks, doing great quality performances and I believe that he will do a great game this afternoon, because on the other side, the best Carolina player is injured (OLB Thomas Davis) and surely Michael Turner will have his holes and gaps to exploit on that Panthers defense and repeat the great last weeks' games.

The Falcons' D has some shortcomings, mainly against the passing game, which by the way is not the strong spot of the Panthers, since they are an 80% rushing team, which helps us a little bit, because the Atlanta defensive unit is much better when you need to stop the opponents' running game, which is good news for us.

As I already said, Carolina relies too much on their rushing game and I'm not surprised with that since QB Jake Delhomme is doing a horrible season and is afraid to throw deep, because he knows he runs serious risks of suffering a few more interceptions, he already has 13 interceptions this season. It is true that on his last 2 games he didn't throw any interceptions, but almost all the Panthers offense plays where done thanks to the running game and therefore, he couldn't harm his team anymore on this subject.

Jake Delhomme has WR Steve Smith to pass the ball, but rarely he uses him, the same happens with WR Muhsin Muhammed or TE Jeff King. I can't entirely blame Delhomme, because almost all the offensive game of the Panthers is based on their rushers RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart. De Angelo (5.2 YPC) is undoubtedly one of the best rushers of the NFL and his 7 touchdowns show that. I'm know that despite his keen "limitations" we will play this game and certainly will do a good performance, but anyway Carolina will have a predictable offense.

Talking about the Panthers D, they don't have a bad passing game defense, but they will a lot of problems to stop the Atlanta offense. Carolina rushing defense was average and the only one standing out is Thomas Davis, who's sidelined due to injury for this game and I see a lot of problems for the Panthers in stopping a Falcons' Michael Turner in great form.

Again, this is an important game for both teams, maybe a little more for the Falcons, I believe that Matt Ryan will play better on this match and will do a good performance, because he has a lot of good options to choose from in order to win this game and with Michael Turner in great shape playing against a bad rushing defense which has their best player out, I believe the running back will be one of the key players for a road win of the Atlanta Falcons.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 06:09 AM
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers


Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are rally improving their game in the last weeks and the team is much more close and solid than in the early start of the season and this game will be a test for them, if they want to keep their good position for the playoffs. Green Bay Packers (4-4) comes from a loss on the road on Tampa Bay where the defense was quite below the expected and if they don't improve for this game, they will have a very long game ahead.

QB Tony Romo since a few weeks ago was able to discover the best way to lead his offense, if before he only used TE Jason Witten, now he goes along with WR Miles Austin (22.7 AVG) who has been Dallas' best weapon to score touchdowns. Since this new presence in the Dallas offense, the opposition' defenses had shift their focus on Miles Austin, which has given more room for Jason Witten to have more opportunities to play. Besides these two wide receivers, Tony Romo still has WR Roy E. Williams who is not a bad player at all and sometimes does good catches and also deserves careful attention from the opponent's defense.

If the Cowboys O has now with good weapons for the passing game, their ground offense has also good tools to get the job done. RB Marion Barber is one of the best NFL rushers and very hard to stop, he is very strong and even suffering a hit, he is usually able to win one or two more yards and his backup RB Felix Jones is also an excellent rusher with a 7.3 yards per carry average, which is a very good average indeed.

On the defensive side, Dallas has also improved, mainly against the passing game, which is good for this game, besides the team has also improved on the pressure against the opponents' quarterback and QB Aaron Rodgers will have a difficult task, with OLB DeMarcus Ware in great form, always able to get near the opposition's quarterback and causing a lot of pressure and knowing that the Packers' OL is horrible when it comes to protect their quarterback, the Cowboys will surely take advantage of that situation. Dallas rushing defense has also improved lately which is a plus for this game too, despite the fact Green Bay uses more often the passing game on their offense.

Aaron Rodgers is doing a good season, but his stats are dropping, we know that his OL can't protect him from suffering a lot of sacks, his pocket often collapses, but we should be fair on this one, a lot of the sacks he has suffered so far this season were due to the fact he takes too much time to make his calls. Like I said, Rodgers should be very careful on this game, because OLB DeMarcus Ware is mastering his trade...

When Rodgers is not busy trying to figure it out to whom he should pass the ball or when is OL is simply crushed by the opponent's defense, we can rate as a good unit this Green Bay offense. WR Donald Driver and mainly WR Greg Jennings are great players and even the rushing game is doing good thanks to RB Ryan Grant, but the Packers ground offense can only dial up some good calls when facing bad teams, therefore I see some difficulties for Green Bay to do a good running game against Dallas.

If taking aside the known problems of the Packers offense, we have a good unit to be worried about, when the subject is the Green Bay defense, then the Packers supporters start to be really troubled. This Green Bay defense is being terrible mainly against the passing game, the secondary has been completely outplayed by every team they already faced so far and they will have to face this afternoon an offense that has been on fire lately, so a lot of suffering has to be expected from the Packers secondary. Green Bay running defense is not that bad, but Dallas has a good ground offense and complications might arise for the Packers defense.

Right now Green Bay has a lot of problems to protect Aaron Rodgers and their secondary will be surely heavily exploited by Dallas offense, it is true that the Packers offense is quite good, but the Cowboys D has improved a lot and the small road favorite has a lot of solutions to complicate things for the small home dog, so I think that Dallas can win this game by at least one touchdown.


Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 06:59 AM
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals


Seattle Seahawks (3-5) on the road has been terrible, they don't produce anything on their offense and their defense is having a lot of troubles. The main reason why the Seahawks can't score is due to the protection the Seattle OL can't provide to their QB Matt Hasselbeck, who's indeed a good player, but is not yet 100% recovered from the injury he suffered earlier in the season and going with a deep ball against Arizona's secondary is not a good idea either.

Seahawks running game counts with RB Julius Jones and RB Edgerrin James and it doesn't scare anyone, there are a lot of plays when Seattle is in a 3rd down and short situation and the team goes much more by the air and on this game, I believe that is will happen very often, because the Cardinals have a very good rushing defense.

For Seattle to have some chance to win this game, they need to be very focused on their defense and since this is an important game for both teams, a divisional one, I believe that the Seahawks will give their best on their defense first and then trying to keep their offense focused and cooled, playing with calm and biding their time, using the clock in their favor.

Arizona Cardinals (5-3) curiously played much better on the road than at home this season, the complete opposite from their fantastic last season, when they where so strong at home and had some problems on their road games. This team is a very powerful one when the subject is called offense. QB Kurt Warner has excellent weapons like WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin, who are very strong on the passing game.

Cards running game despite the excellent rushing displayed last week, is quite weak. Arizona has RB Beanie Wells and RB Tim Hightower, but we know that Tim Hightower has played often by the air than by the ground, therefore, the core of this Cardinals offensive unit is really their passing game.

As I said earlier, the Cards defense has a good secondary and it will be hard for the Seahawks to score a lot of points against them and their running defense is also quite good and I believe that they will able to stop the Seahawks offense in both dimension, both their passing game and their rushing game as well.

If we take a good look at both teams schedule's for this season, only against the Texans who actually play much better on the road than in Houston, the Cards were able to score a win. We also noticed that after the 21-34 home loss against Carolina, a great 21-41 road win followed in the next game against Chicago, which explains a little bit why the opening line on the total was so high (47 points). We also remember that half of the games that Arizona has already played had 48 or more points scored...

Seattle has clearly lost all their road games, always by a two digits difference (13 points or more). They only won at home against very weak teams and they have 3 games where the total points scored where equal or higher than 51 points, which includes their last 2 games after their Bye Week on Week 7. With this in mind, we can understand why the total opening line was that high...

The reason why I'm not playing the Cardinals point spread is due to the Arizona's performances at home. They haven't convinced anyone yet and it is on these games that they feel more pressured and more mentally unstable. That has translated in a lot of errors and in bad home games and in the end, a few losses.

Despite the Seahawks have lost all their road games, I believe that they can take advantage of the Cards bad behaviour at home and play a slow game, controlling the clock, taking advantage of Arizona's mistakes and avoiding to commit their own mistakes. Knowing that this is a divisional game, we must not forget that the Seahawks were heavily defeat by Arizona at home on their previous encounter: 3-27.

After considering the possibilities for this game, there is another plausible scenario for this game, which also helps us on the total. Arizona simply snaps their bad home display and does indeed a good game, finishing the game with a 31-6 score for the Cardinals or even a 24-17, if they play their game like they have done in the road. If that happens, then the Seahawks will only be able to score some late points like they did against the Colts, for example.

Otherwise, Arizona will play very badly like in their previous home games and we can have a surprising Seahawks win, but I don't expect more than 41 points on that case. Right now, both teams can't make mistakes and the pressure on both teams is heavy, specially over Arizona's shoulders, a team that doesn't want to lose the opportunity to win a second game this season against these weak Seahawks.

Overall, I believe that defenses will play much better, the offenses will have difficulties in doing their job thanks to the pressure and fear of failure, minimizing the risks of doing mistakes in order to not favor their adversaries. In my opinion, without both teams last two games and the total line for this game should be around the 42 points, 43 tops. I believe that this Under line has the better odds so I'll take the extra value in this probabilities market.


Pick: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Iván
11-15-2009, 02:31 PM
nice write ups, good luck mate.

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 04:03 PM
Many thanks, Iván!!! :cool:

TommyGold
11-15-2009, 08:37 PM
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts


This is the best game of Week 10, with New England Patriots (6-2) coming to Indianapolis with three wins in a row, showing a lot of improvements in their last displays, where they will face a perfect Indianapolis Colts (8-0) team this season.

As we know, QB Tom Brady, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, was injured last season and it took too much time for him to regain his old form, which was perfectly normal. The Pats O wasn't playing well until Week 4, but since then the New England offense and Tom Brady are playing much better, mainly Brady's deep balls which are hitting their intended targets, like for example, WR Randy Moss, one of the best NFL Wide Receivers, and WR Wes Welker, a very important player for Brady's game, because if Randy Moss is more used on deep balls, Wes Welker is more suited on the short game, but since he is so agile and quick, he can catch the ball and run some extra yards during the game. Besides these two great wide receivers, Tom Brady also has another great option to pass the ball, TE Benjamin Watson.

Patriots rushing game, despite the absences of RB Fred Taylor and RB Sammy Morris, will count with RB Laurence Maroney who has done great games lately and as a backup, we have RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis who also is a quite good player. So, despite these two important injured players being absent, the running game of the Patriots still has good options. I think that Laurence Maroney is an excellent rusher, but he will have difficulties against the Colts ground defense, because on a game like this, everyone is going to give their best.

In the early season, I thought that the Patriots would have some problems on their defense and that they would probably improve during the season, but despite being a unit filled with so much young players, they actually are doing real fine defending well both against the passing game and the rushing game as well. And the team needs them to hold the ground and keep the game close, they have risen to occasion, despite some foolish penalties thanks to their youth and inexperience, a normal thing considering those facts. I believe they will do a good job against the Colts offense tonight.

Indianapolis Colts also have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, QB Peyton Manning is doing a great season, leading his team to a perfect record: 8-0. He doesn't have offensive options as strong as Tom Brady as to choose from, but despite that, the Colts offense also has good weapons like WR Reggie Wayne, WR Pierre Garcon and TE Dallas Clark. From these 3, I highlight Dallas Clark who always shows up in critical situations and is always able to do that catch which gives the Colts the so needed 1st down for the team to keep going forward down the field, which makes him a very important player for the Colts offense

On the rushing game, the Colts have RB Joseph Addai, who has done decent games comparing with the last season, improving his game, but he is not the same Addai like 3 years ago, I think he will have some troubles against the Pats defense. As a backup for Addai, the Colts have backup RB Donald Brown.

Indianapolis defense has 3 important absent players on their secondary, specially SS Bob Sanders who will be surely missed in a game like this, despite the fact his replacement has been playing very well. It is true that this Colts D also has a lot of young players, but this unit has been outstanding and were able to stop the opponents' passing game and rushing game as well. However, this week they will face a great match, an offense that is very powerful and with a lot of seasoned players, which can tip the balance in favour of the Pats in some plays.

New England is playing much better now and I truly think that the Colts will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots are playing much better now and Indianapolis rhythm has dropped lately and they had won their games in a close fashion, their offense is not playing very well, but their defense has done quite well in compensation. We all know that Tom Brady and QB Peyton Manning will play very well and can both throw a lot of touchdown passes, but this is a game that will be played slowly, with a lot of tactical sense, where Defenses will be "Queens", and the offenses will try to not give any free plays to their opponents and thus, I see a lot of value on the Under 49.5 Points and I think that the New England Patriots will win this game SU.


Picks: New England Patriots +3 -125 The Greek and Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-16-2009, 11:00 PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (MNF)


Baltimore Ravens (4-4) are in a very complicated situation and they are in a desperate need to score wins and there is not better opportunity for that than facing the lowly Cleveland Browns (1-7). On the current season, Baltimore wasn't able to get the upper hand against strong teams, but when their opponents are weak sides, they have completely dominating those teams and had scored a lot of points too.

Baltimore offense has sophomore QB Joe Flacco, a good player when has enough time to make his calls and we are expecting such a thing tonight. His partners are WR Derrick Mason, Flacco's main target and Ravens' best wide receiver, because if we see things right RB Ray Rice also plays as wide receiver. Baltimore also has TE Todd Heap who is used by Joe Flacco from time to time.

Ravens running game has RB Ray Rice (5.3 YPC) and RB Willis McGahee (4.3 YPC), both are good options to use against the weak Browns' defense and we can expect Baltimore to have good plays both by the air and by the ground.

Baltimore Defense has been completely dominated on the passing game by good teams, but the Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and against Cleveland won't have big problems on this subject. Curiously, Baltimore defense has been outstanding on their rushing defense, which is a good thing for us, because tonight they will face a team which is stronger on the ground, if we can say that the Browns offense is strong...

Cleveland will start again QB Brady Quinn and I don't think that a good idea, he will have a lot of problems, mainly against ILB Ray Lewis who will take special care of him, and against S Ed Reed, who might pick some of his passes... Browns offense is quite weak on the passing game, with WR Braylon Edwards and WR Mohamed Massaquio, 2 players that haven't done a single touchdown this season. TE Todd Heap who already has 1 touchdown scored is another option, but there is no doubt that by the air, this Cleveland offense is one of the weakest of the NFL.

That's why they prefer to play by running the ball and RB Jamal Lewis and RB Jerome Harrison will have the hard task to penetrate the hardened Ravens rushing defense which has been completely fantastic, so overall, It will be very hard for the Browns to score points against Baltimore tonight.

On the defense, Cleveland has not a great team either, against the passing game is average, but against this Ravens offense, I doubt they will hold them much longer, because not only the Browns have to worry about the Ravens' WRs, but specially their main weakness is playing against the running game, they simply can't stop the opponents' rushing game and they have been completely mauled by their opposition in a weekly basis.

Baltimore only need to win this game to keep their hopes with a wild card alive and I can't see any other result than a win for the Ravens, and with the road favorite team having all the edges on the offense and on the defense, the only strong spot of this Browns team is their ground offense but the Baltimore has improved already on that subject, therefore I will take the Ravens against Cleveland, who I think will lose this game by at least 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-18-2009, 01:51 AM
It was a rough week, all the 3 wins were close, all the losses were clear, even if in two (Broncos and Falcons), I can file a complaint about some key injuries during the games, QB Kyle Orton and RB Michael Turner. Yet, the Falcons can put a lot of blame on themselves, by the way they played on the 4th quarter.


Below is my Week 10 results recap:

70 - Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -3 -125 (1.80) Bookmaker (10-6: WIN)
71 - Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-17: LOSS)
72 - Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes (28-19: LOSS)
73 - Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (31-20: LOSS)
74 - Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (17-7: LOSS)
75 - New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (SNF): New England Patriots +3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (35-34: WIN)
76 - New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (35-34: LOSS)
77 - Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (MNF): Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-16: WIN)


SIDES: 3-3; TOTALS: 0-2 (Week 10: -2.45 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 41-36 (+1.24 units won/77 units risked);
SIDES: 39-29 (+6.38 units won/68 units risked);
TOTALS 2-7 (-5.14 units lost/9 units risked).

Pointspreads (57.35%) account for almost 90% of my action, so maybe it's better for me to stick to it for now and leave the bloody totals alone. :P

Mecir
11-18-2009, 05:31 AM
Hey guys check out Lee Sterling at Paramount Sports (www.paramountsports.com).

I watched a few of his picks that he posted before kickoff on his website and mut say I was pretty impressed. Obvioulsy he won't place all his picks as he is a payment for picks service but I reckon the guy does a good analysis.

TommyGold
11-22-2009, 04:36 AM
For NFL 2009 Week 11, I've only 4 point spreads to risk:

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek

Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders: Cincinnati Bengals -9 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF): Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
11-22-2009, 04:38 PM
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

QB Matt Ryan despite the good weapons at his disposal on his offense, is going through a rough patch, suffering 11 interceptions on his last 6 games, which has cost his team several wins. Falcons D has has been bad, very bad against the opponent's passing game and their secondary has been completely outplayed by good opponents' passing games. They are also having troubles to defend against the rushing game and for today, that might be problematic when you face the Giants ground offense.

Falcons offense is one of the best and powerful in the NFL, having WR Michael Jenkins, WR Roddy White and for me the best Tight End of the NFL, Tony Gonzalez, so, for the passing game, they have a lot of solutions, but Matt Ryan lately has not been able to make it work for the Falcons passing game. The rushing game has been completely on fire but with the injury of RB Michael Turner who was in great shape and not been able to practice, we will have an important missing player for the Falcons and it is to RB Jason Snelling to step up and carry the ball down the field.

We can say that the Giants' Bye Week was right on target, the New York team started with a 5-0 record to go 0-4 on the last 4 games, so this Bye Week was providential to recover some players and have some time to think about the future games after the last minute loss against the Chargers. The Giants' major issue has been their secondary, completely outplayed on the last games and they need to improve that, they can't always concede a 30 points average and I think that the Bye Week was important to improve that unit and to practice in order to correct their previous mistakes and with some important players returning after injury, they will have an improved passing game defense.

Giants rushing defense has been playing good and with Michael Turner absent, they will have an easier task today. QB Eli Manning is an excellent quarterback who has been not that good lately, despite his good game against San Diego. He has good tools for his job like WR Mario Manningham, WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss, whom despite their youth, have great talent and quality. Giants rushing game counts with two good rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, very powerful and capable of withstanding the hits and tackles and to win a few more extra yards, so I think that the Giants should use more this option today instead of using only their passing game.

The Falcons are having a lot of troubles playing in the road and they will play in very complicated field against a great team and the way they are defending against the rush and the way their secondary is playing, the Giants will be able to do a good offensive game throughout the field, causing a lot of problems against Atlanta, and I believe they will be able to win this game by more than 1 touchdown.


Pick: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker


P.S.: I'm adding San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: San Diego Chargers -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker as my final pick for Week 11. :)

TommyGold
11-22-2009, 07:59 PM
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Arizona has won all their road games and the Rams haven't won any game at home and I think that thinks will stay pretty much the same. Cardinals are doing great in their offense, QB Kurt Warner is improving his game and has great option to pass the ball (WR Larry Fitzgeral, WR Anquan Boldin or WR Steve Breaston) which makes the Cards passing game very dangerous for the opponents' defenses.

Arizona's running game has improved too on the last weeks, mainly after RB Beanie Wells has taken care of business, which was undoubtedly the Cards weakest part in their offense. Even RB Tim Hightower is also improving his performances and he is also used as a wide receiver for the Kurt Warner's short passes, like a tight end.

Cardinals defense is very good against the rushing game and that is good for us, because the Rams can only carry the ball as their offensive weapon and I'm sure that the Cards D will be enough to stop the Saint Louis ground offense. Arizona's passing defense has ups and downs, sometimes they defend very well and do a lot of pressure, doing good man coverage, sometimes they look like an empty highway. Knowing that the Rams passing game is one of the weakest of the league, the Cardinal defense has everything to give us a good show on this match.

Saint Louis 23 points season high last week could have been good news, but the lowest Cards scoring game was only... 24 points. QB Marc Bulger is having a lot of troubles because his offensive weapons aren't great players (WR Donnie Avery, WR Keenan Burton e TE Randy McMichael) and aren't very used either and when they play, they are unable to do big plays for the team. The Rams rely on their strong suit, the rushing game, thanks to RB Steven Jackson, a great rusher with a 4.8 yards per carry average.

It is true that the Rams has some important injuries on their secondary and that is translated in bad performances against the opponents' passing game and against a great air offense, they will be on the downside. Saint Louis run defense is not good either and they way the Cards had improved on their ground offense, I expect the Rams to have a lot of troubles on their defense.

The Cards are playing well on the road and are scoring a lot of points and I believe that the Rams will continue their low scores performance, the mismatches between both teams makes me think that Arizona has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek

TommyGold
11-22-2009, 08:27 PM
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

This Sunday Night Football game is extremely important for both teams and for their postseason ambitions, so there is pressure for both teams and errors can happen on both sides.

With RB Westbrook out and things appear to be very ugly for him, I'm afraid if his injury will even ruin and end his NFL career, things will not be good for the Eagles running game and we cannot forget that the Bears play at home and they are a good home team and playing in Chicago is always a difficult thing to do. Philadelphia is not playing good on the road and they showed a lot of problems when they play as a visitor, besides the Bears also have some weapons on their offense and their ground offense can make things very difficult for the Eagles defense.

Overall speaking of both teams, the Eagles have the most complete package than the Bears and I think this Philadelphia -3 line is acceptable but when you are on the road and you aren't doing great as a visitor and have to face a good home team and for me, I can't have a good read on both sides and I wouldn't be surprised if this game is decided by a Field Goal and for me this line has no value and I'm going to stay away from this game. :)

TommyGold
11-23-2009, 08:53 PM
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF)

Tennessee after the Bye Week on Week 7 has nicely improved, specially after QB Vince Young returned to the starting lineup, scoring 3 straight wins, but for me the main reason for such improvement is due to a better performance of the Titans D, both against the opponent's rushing game and on their secondary, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet a strong offensive team like the Texans and I think that tonight they will have huge problems in order to stop Houston's passing game.

Titans offense has improved with Vince Young doing safe passes and he hasn't throw many interceptions. Young counts with WR Nate Johnson, WR Kenny Brit, WR Justin Cage and TE Bo Scaife to pass the ball, they aren't bad players on one side, but are a little bit far from the best in their roles and positions on the league. This troop will face a good passing defense, but what has given some results to the Texans O has been the running game with rusher RB Chris Johnson completely dominating on his last 3 games (495 yards) with an impressive 6.6 YPC and 6 scored touchdowns, and I believe he will again do a good game Tennessee now rely too much on him and will use it a lot on this game, since the Houston defense is much more stronger against the passing game than against the ground offense.

I rate Houston as a good team, they have been playing well and their last losses were against good teams and against the Colts they manage to give a good reply thanks to their good offense. QB Matt Schaub is doing great season and counts with WR Andre Johnson, WR Kevin Walter and TE Joel Dreesen. Schaub has good weapons on his offense, specially Andre Johnson who is for me one of the best wide receivers of the NFL.

Texans ground offense is average, their rushers are RB Steve Slaton (3.1 YPC) and RB Ryan Moats (4.1 YPC) per carry can give some diversity to Houston offense and both are always able to win some yards, but this kind of game is seldom used by the Texans, because they prefer to use the passing game, which is quite obvious thanks to their good array of wide receivers and a nice quarterback.

On the defense, Houston has some troubles to stop the opponents' ground offense and surely Chris Johnson will present some problems to this Texans D, but every defense unit who faces Johnson as always troubles ahead. Since the Titans are using much more the running game, the Houston should focus much more on this kind of game, because their secondary has been playing well and are doing a good men coverage.

I see value on the Houston -4 line since I don't believe that Tennessee will be able to stop the Texans passing game which is really quite good, has a quarterback in great shape with great tools for his job on the wide receivers' role. Houston is also very motivated and after the Bye Week they really want to give a good show and even with Chris Johnson on the other side, the Texans will score a lot of points and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

You can already see HOU -3.5 on 5Dimes, maybe you can get a better price on some shops before kick-off. :)

TommyGold
11-25-2009, 05:06 AM
Below is my Week 11 results recap:

78 - Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-31 OT: LOSS)
79 - Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek (13-21: LOSS)
80 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders: Cincinnati Bengals -9 -105 (1.95) The Greek (20-17: LOSS)
81 - San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: San Diego Chargers -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-32: WIN)
82 - Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF): Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4 (Week 11: -3.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 42-40 (-1.85 units won/82 units risked);
SIDES: 40-33 (+3.29 units won/73 units risked);
TOTALS 2-7 (-5.14 units lost/9 units risked).

Considering the -11.22 units lost last week on college hoops, plus -6.4 units lost on NHL in the same period, it was only fitting that the same should happen on NFL as well...

Pointspreads are now down to 54.80% and the prospect of a losing season begins to loom if the current course is not carefully changed...

TommyGold
11-26-2009, 08:39 AM
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions:

Detroit is miserable on the defense, but on the offense has good players and now with the return of WR Johnson, the team has shown a good passing game and they even turned the tables on the weak Browns, truth be told. I will not follow Green Bay on this game because they're playing very bad on the road and despite the mismatches on both teams, I can't get a proper read on their motivation, because this game can go to both sides, depending of well the Packers execute on offense and defense or how commited will be the Lions to give their best in this game.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys:

What can I say about the Raiders??? One of the hardest teams to predict, they can do a very good game like last week and on the next game, they can screw up big time and look like THE WORST TEAM I EVER SAW PLAYING ON THE NFL and I've seen a lot of games in this century. On the other side, we are asking to lay too many points on a team that only scored 7 points!!! Depending on how motivated the Raiders are, one can stay out of this game or play against Oakland, because these Cowboys with the proper mindset, can cover this pointspread and rout the Raiders.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos:

Big game for both teams, the Giants are still far from their good form, their secondary has been pitiful and they will play in a very complicated field and without beeing sure if Kyle Orton will be out or not for this game, it will be very complicated to have a good read on this game. Even if he plays, it is not easy to take sides on this match. Both teams need to win to keep their postseason hopes alive, so we can expect a great effort from both teams, however, how badly the recent losing streak is affecting the Broncos' players mindset? The Giants have a bad secondary and the Broncos offense is very bad with Chris Simms leading the team...

TommyGold
11-28-2009, 02:46 AM
For NFL 2009 Week 12, I've 5 point spreads and 1 total to risk:

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

TommyGold
11-29-2009, 08:40 AM
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts as we know, has not lost a game this season and I'm not seeing them to lose this match. Their offense has one of the best Quarterbacks of all time, QB Peyton Manning, who is doing a tremendous season and he has been the main reason why the Colts are still unbeaten. Peyton Manning can count with WR Pierre Garcon and WR Reggie Wayne as his preferred wide receivers, both are quite good and both have great quality. Manning will also rely on his main weapon, one that he uses much more often than the others, TE Dallas Clark, who is doing an excellent season this year.

We already know how pretty good the Colts' passing game is and their rushing game is not bad at all either. Rusher RB Joseph Addai after a season where he his performances weren't the best, has improved and he is playing quite well this year, not at the same level that he used to a few years ago, but at least, he's somewhat back. To help the Colts on the ground offense, we have RB Donald Brown as Addai's backup and he always manage to gain some good yards every time he carries the ball.

Defensively I have to highlight a couple of things. It is true that the Colts' secondary has suffered a lot lately in the passing game, but we should not forget that when their opponents get into the Colts' red zone, Indy defense can in most cases force their opposition to settle with only the field goal attempt, as we saw last week against the Ravens, where the Indianapolis defense forced the Ravens to go for 5 Fields Goals instead of scoring several touchdowns...

The absence of TE Owen Daniels on Texans side, I believe that the Colts' defense will again do a good work, specially when near their own end zone. Their rushing defense is not bad at all, they can stop the opponent's rush and for this game the Colts D will not need much more effort to stop the Texans' rushing game, which is quite average, so Indy should be able to get the job done.

Houston Texans has lost the last 2 games because their kicker missed important field goals which should cost them this season and now I don't believe that they can even get a wild card. Their offense has a good quarterback, Matt Schaub is doing an excellent season so far and thanks to the weapons he has, such as WR Andre Johnson, one of the best in the league, or WR Kevin Walter, who is a lesser option for QB Matt Schaub to throw his passes. Since TE Owen Daniels was injured, the Texans offense playbook has been virtually reduced to Schaub to Johnson, which makes this offense very predictable.

Their rushing game is not the best nor the worst this season, Houston relies on RB Steve Slaton and backup RB Ryan Moats and these two will have the difficult task of penetrating the Colts' defense and I think that the Texans will not have much success when using the running game.

Defensively, Houston has many difficulties in stopping the opponents' rushing game and certainly Joseph Addai will give them some headaches down the field. Texans' passing defense is average but knowing that they will face Peyton Manning, who can penetrate any defense without great difficulty, we can be assured that they should be dominated by the Colts' passing game on this game, which will make things very hard for Houston to win this game.

Indianapolis has more arguments than the Texans for the win and I sincerely believe that the Colts will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

TommyGold
11-29-2009, 09:20 AM
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills


Miami Dolphins has for me the best Wildcat formation of all the NFL and that is what makes the Dolphins as a very complicated team to defend against. QB Chad Henne who I personally like a lot, leads a Dolphins offense which is very fond of the running game as we all know, but this guy can throw deep balls down the field with great quality, which is quite good for the Dolphins, because their opponents always have to be careful with their defensive schemes and the Wildcat formation gives Miami a little a bit more freedom to choose their plays, so the opposing team does not only has to worry in defending against the running game brought by the Fins' Wildcat, but they have to be very carefully to not expose too much against the rain of Henne's deep balls.

Chad Henne has two decent players to send his deep balls, they are WR Davone Brees and WR Greg Camarillo, but the real power of this team is undoubtedly its rushing game, with RB Ricky Williams, who is completely on fire and has been a major force in the Miami offense and I really believe that against the Bills, Williams will again wreak havoc against Buffalo's defense.

Miami D has some difficulties against the opponent's passing game, but on this game they will not face a powerful team in that subject, I think the Bills will prefer to use a lot more their rushing game, like the Dolphins do, ie, the meeting will be held on the ground and not much by the air, and therefore I only see an edge to the Dolphins' side.

Bills offense has QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who I honestly do not like, he fails too much the simple passes and that makes the Buffalo's offense quite weak, despite having a great WR Terrell Owens doing a nice season, but it also looks like that he signed with the Bills to earn a little extra cash than to give his best effort on the field, because TO is one of those players that causes locker problems when things do not go the way he likes and that is what has happened again this season.

The Bills' passing game is very soft, so the team has to rely a lot more on his rushing game, with RB Fred Jackson and RB Marshawn Lynch has the main carriers, who are not bad at all and lately they have been crucial for the Buffalo team to get their drives going down the field, and they are often used to get near the opposition's end zone.

The Buffalo's defense is average, they are able to stop more or less the opposition's passing game and running game, but the big problem for them this week is the kind of game the Dolphins practice, with their Wild Cat causing enormous problems to any defense and I think that the Bills D will have a lot of work, mainly to stop Ricky Williams, who is in great shape.

For me in general, Miami has the best team and more options to work with and enough offensive variations to complicate things to the Bills' defense than the opposite, so I think the Dolphins will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

TommyGold
11-29-2009, 10:14 AM
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

QB Matt Hasselbeck is a great quarterback that has great weapons in his offense, like WR Nate Burleson and WR TJ Houshmandzadeh. The two are very good wide receivers to whom Matt Hasselback can throw deep the ball like he did in Week 1. We can say that the Seahawks offense is practically all based on the passing game. For the rushing game Seattle has rusher RB Julius Jones, he is not a bad player, but is not widely used during the game, for me, he would be one good choice for the Seahawks offense to use a lot more their running game against Saint Louis, because the Rams rushing defense is very weak.

The Seahawks defense is having a lot of troubles in their secondary but I think that on this game they can delete a bit of their secondary's bad image, because they will face the worst team in the passing game, that is, the Rams passing game to me is completely null and the Seahawks despite their difficulties in against this kind of offense, can do a good job on this subject. The Seattle's rushing defense happens to be better than their passing defense and for this game that comes in handy because the other side will show a good running game and will have RB Steve Jackson to showcase on this game.

The Rams rely on their offense with QB Marc Bulger, I will not say he is a bad quarterback because it's a bit unfair for him to give him a bad rating, because the weapons he has are not the best. WR Doonie Avery and WR Keenan Burton together are managing to be in the bottom place nad making the Rams the worst team in the NFL, regarding the passing game. Their rushing game on the other hand is a good one and they even have one of the best rushers in the league, RB Steven Jackson. He will surely be the first option for Rams offense on this game, because is with the running game that the team can still do something good.

Saint Louis defense is not bad at all, despite suffering too many points, they do have a good secondary which can do a good man coverage and defend well against the passing game, otherwise they will be doomed in this game like they were in week 1. Since their rushing defense is quite weak, only if the Seahawks are too stubborn to only use their passing game will the Rams avoid being pierced by the Seattle ground offense.

Overall, the Seahawks have the best team, especially in the offense and I think this will be enough for Seattle to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

TommyGold
11-29-2009, 10:50 AM
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs surprisingly won against the champions Pittsburgh Steelers, but the truth is that the Chiefs have greatly improved their game throughout the season. The team has an excellent quarterback, QB Matt Cassel, who just did not do nothing better at the beginning of the season because he had no good players to pass the ball, but with the signing of WR Chris Chambers (ex-Chargers), Cassel has an excellent choice to throw the ball and that's what happened against the Steelers, with the Chiefs being much more dangerous offensively due to this duo.

Chiefs' rushing game has rusher RB Larry Johnson who is not much of a player but you can be sure that the main offensive option for Kansas City is indeed their passing game and not the running game.

On the defense, the team sometimes has problems in their secondary and certainly that this game will bring a lot of troubles for Kansas defense, because the Chargers offense is a powerful one in the passing game. Since Chiefs' rush defense has been pretty good lately and knowing how much the Chargers have choose to the run the ball, the Chiefs will be able to stop this kind of game and I think they can considerably complicate the job of RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

San Diego is in great shape since the 6th week, with QB Philip Rivers shown inggreat form by doing great and long passes, especially for TE Antonio Gates. Beyond Gates, the Chargers also have WR Vincent Jacksonm who is also nothing bad, so we can say that their passing game is quite good. San Diego is also well capable in the rushing game, with two very good rushers, RB LaDainian Tomlinsonand RB Darren Sproles, who is always a great help and do this part when things do not go well for Tomlinson.

Chargers defense has been very good lately in stopping the opponents' rushing game, which indicates that they will not have major problems with Chiefs' running game. Now, their secondary has having sometimes big problems and no one is better than WR Chris Chambers to exploit such weaknesses in the Chargers defense and I think that Matt Cassel and Chris Chalmers will give some hard work to San Diego's secondary.

For this game the Chargers are the favorites and I don't disagree with it, but I do not believe that this pointspread should be so high, because the Chiefs have played much better in the last weeks with a renewed offense, where QB Matt Cassel already has someone to rely to throw his passes and therefore, I do not believe that the Chiefs will lose this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-29-2009, 11:23 AM
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals curiously are playing much better on the road than at home, at least in away games the team plays at ease and rarely feels the pressure. QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and will again start with his big guns WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin, who are quite good wide receivers and can give a lot of troubles to any defense in the NFL.

If Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL, their rushing game early-season simply did not worked at all, but as long as they improvised their game using RB Beanie Wells, that the team has shown a very strong running game in their last games and became a more balanced offense.

Cardinals D is plays better against the rushing game than against the passing game and for this game it might be a good sign, because on the other side we have one of the best rushers in league, RB Chris Johnson. Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, because when it's time for the Card to do something to stop the opponent's offense or win the game, they can do some good man coverage and cause pressure on the opposing quarterback too.

Tennessee Titans after 6 straight losses has recovered some of their injured players for their defense and now has 4 wins in a row but let's be honest, the 4 teams that Tennesse faced have nothing to do with Arizona. As we all know, the Titans since they put QB Vince Young on the starting lineup, have not lost a game, because he is holding the ball and doesn't throw interceptions. The weapons that Young will use are WR Nate Washington and WR Justin Gage, who are average players. The rushing game is without any doubt the strongest part of the Titans offense, they have one of the best rushers in the league, RB Chris Johnson, who is in good shape, but will have the difficult task of running through the Cardinals run defense, which is pretty good.

Tennessee has improved a lot on their defense, especially against the passing game since recovering some important injured players, but I think that since the bye week, this Titans defense has not been tested, because the 4 opponents they faced in the last 4 games, have nothing to do with the offense they will have to deal with in this game, and Warner and Boldin will cause many problems to the Titans D. Their run defense is not bad, but they will have to face rushing game that has been improving week after week and is very likely that they will have some problems in this subject too.

The Cardinals on the road had shown great quality with excellent passing game and good defense and the Titans despite their 4 straight wins, have not been trully tested and I think that Arizona will win this game.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
11-30-2009, 11:25 PM
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are getting better as a team and for me it's one of the biggest contenders to the Super Bowl. The Patriots O is a real luxury, the team has one of the best quarterbacks ever, QB Tom Brady, who has great weapons at his disposal: WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson. This means that the Pats' passing game is undoubtedly on of the best in the NFL, if not even the best! With a healthy WR Wes Welker, New England has produced much more in the offense and the connection "Tom Brady-Wes Welker" is really explosive.

Patriots' rushing game is also well served, even with the injury of RB Fred Taylor and consequent absence, the team has rushers as RB Laurence Maroney who is playing well and RB Sammy Morris, or even RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With these high quality rushers, the Patriots have the best quality offense in the NFL, because they have an outstanding quarterback, excellent wide receivers and great rushers.

On the defense, the Pats had some ups and downs in the past and they will have certainly some troubles defending the Saints' passing game, which itself is the best of the league this season. Despite the youth of the Pats' secondary, I consider it a very good defense when they are focused, doing a good man coverage and they can do some regular interceptions. The New England's rushing defense is not all that bad, but I think that for this game, the Patriots will give some room to the Saints in this kind of game.

The New Orleans Saints haven't lost yet on this season and they're a number one seed for the playoffs. Their offense has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, QB Drew Brees, who is doing a great season, and he can count with WR Marques Colston, Devery Henderson WR and TE Jeremy Shockey to pass the ball, all these guys are very good players in their functions. The Saints passing game is not as strong as the Patriots, but is their best strength and QB Drew Brees loves to throw deep balls. Their rushing game is also quite good, RB Reggie Bush, RB Pierre Thomas and even RB Mike Bell are very good athletes, and the Saints can cause a lot of problems to many defenses in the NFL. Overall, have no doubts, these New Orleans Saints are an offense powerhouse.

The Saints defense started very well, but since some of the players in their secondary were injured, the team has lost a lot of quality in this area and the secondary performance has been lousy lately. The Saints D will face a great offense powerhouse too and I think they'll have huge problems to stop the Brady, Moss and Welker trio. They have been saved by their offense, which can outscore almost every team in the NFL when they feel the pressure and the Saints offense like to play with the pressure and they perform a lot more focused with that pressure.

Thanks to the absences on the Saints secondary, I believe that New Orleans will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots will eat the Saints' secondary alive. On the other side, the Pats defense The key for the Pats win on this game will be their ability to deliver enough pressure on the Saints OL, doing a good man coverage on their secondary and trying to get some sacks on Drew Brews, who might have some opportunities to send his deep balls and surely the New England defense will take some damage thanks to those plays, but in the overall, I believe that the Patriots will prevail in the end and I think that we will see here again a game like the last Pats @ Colts, with huge points scored in this game and that's the reason why I also see enough in value in the over.


Pick: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

TommyGold
12-02-2009, 04:45 AM
Below is my Week 12 results recap:

83 - Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-35: WIN)
84 - Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek (31-14: LOSS)
85 - Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-27: WIN)
86 - Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (43-14: LOSS)
87 - Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (20-17: PUSH/VOID)
88 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes (38-17: LOSS)
89 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (38-17: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-3-1; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 11: -2.14 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 44-44-1 (-3.99 units lost/88 units risked);
SIDES: 42-36 (+2.15 units won/78 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).

Losing a total by a single half-point hurts... Will have to look back to what went wrong on the last couple of weeks... 3-7-1 on sides, awful performance. Since the end of Week 9 that I'm going downhill and this week the NFL was the black spot on a week that had a +24 units of profit on NBA, NCAAB and NHL... :s

TommyGold
12-06-2009, 05:12 AM
NFL 2009 Week 13, 9 point spreads to risk:

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica

San Diego Chargers vs Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
12-06-2009, 04:10 PM
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: the oddsmakers do not know what to do about this game, so they opened the lines with a PK on each side and let the market work. The Jaguars are 6-5 this season and currently have one foot in the last wild card that gives access to the playoffs, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the footsteps, I doubt they can keep this lead...

However, the motivation for this game should be enough to start with a win a series of 3 home games. And knowing that they receive after the Texans, Miami and Indianapolis in the next few weeks, imagine the moral boost of facing the Colts with a 7-5 record?

Houston has lost the last game and is a team with low morale, because the losses always cost in emotional terms, but can still mathematically reach the last spot of the playoffs, the problem is going to do 3 road games and two of them quite complicated, against Jaguars and Dolphins. Knowing that they play much better away from home, were my first choice, but after reviewing the other factors, I think it is wiser to stay out, because these Texans in the moment of truth have failed...


Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Without QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons had a FG advantage in the opening lines, courtesy of the oddsmakers. The Eagles on the road have acted with a bit lower than expected and on the last 4 games only managed to win 2 of them ... The prioblem is that the Falcons are not is good shape either and perhaps this is a good match for an Under, because both teams in the rushing game will have their best players sitting out on the sidelines. However, one never knows how the Falcons passing game will really work on this game, so I'd rather stay out of this game.


Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals: I will not play the Lions with Stafford having that arm injury not fully recovered. Going against Detroit -13 against a team as good on the offense like the Bengals are is always a snack, the problem is that these Bengals only played their best game against the best teams on the league.

Against the Bears, who are in the same division of the Lions, Cincy won big, but on the last game against the Browns, division rivals, they played just the minimum required to win the game and that has been almost the norm when the Bengals face lowly teams. In theory, Lions +13 would be a good pick, but the circumstances of the injury on the arm of Stafford, force me to leave this game aside.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: it's curious to see Bucs +6 going to Bucs +4, but that is explained because if I'm not wrong, Panthers' QB will be out for this game game and therefore, it is complicated to have a good read on the Panthers. Tampa Bay is a very weak team and perhaps, the best pick for this game is the Under 40. Were not the fact that I do not know very well these two teams and that I've already too many plays for this week and maybe I could take that risk ... The problem is that Tampa Bay can score always a few points per game, ranging between 14 and 21 points, and sometimes games between low scoring teams can open up and we end up with an over... Many unknowns to take risks that I find unnecessary ...

TommyGold
12-06-2009, 07:37 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF)

QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and despite being questionable for tonight, I think he will be on the starting lineup. On the passing game, he has WR Larry Fitzgerald (75 receptions and 11 TD), Warner's "best friend" and WR Anquan Boldin (56 rec/2 TD), 2 good wide receivers that any defense in the NFL has to be very careful to not give them too much room. WR Steve Breaston was also used this season and he has some nice numbers, 43 receptions and 3 TD, so we can really say that Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL.

Cardinals' rushing game is now improved, rookie RB Beanie Wells has already scored 4 TD and he is a nice addiction for the team, which has shown a very strong running game in their last games and are now more balanced offense. RB Tim Hightower has some health problems but he might seeing him too on this game, if not as a rusher, at least a tight-end, to give the Cards some options on the short passing game. Yet, the running game is the weak spot of the Cardinals and Minny D has the edge on this one.

Arizona's defense does better against the running game than against the passing game, yet this might not be enough when you face the best rusher of the NFL. However, Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, but they have their moments, sometimes they play very good, sometimes they don't and at home, they usually do not play that well and against the Vikings that can be deadly.

Minnesota defense is a very good and aggressive unit, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, but their secondary has been untested on the last weeks and they faced good offensive teams like the Steelers, the Packers or even the Ravens, they suffered a lot of points. For those who want to go for the Over, this might be a good angle, but for me that line is a bit too high thanks to Arizona's inconsistency.

On the offense, they have QB Brett Favre, who has been very good this season, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very few interceptions because on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is practically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses.

On the passing game, WR Bernard Berrian (38 rec/4 TD) has not been used that much this season, unlike WR Percy Harvin (42 rec/5TD) or WR Sidney Rice (56 rec/4 TD), who account for almost a mile in the passing game. Yet, when we look at the numbers of Adrian Peterson, we see that this team is very well balanced in terms of scoring touchdowns by the ground or by the air.

Both defenses will have problems when facing the opponents' passing game, but when the ball is carried by a rusher, the edge goes for the Purps, on both sides of the game, offense and defense. Minnesota has been much more consistent this season, despite having faced lower opponents lately while Arizona had a much tougher opposition. For me, knowing how unreliable the Cards have been at home, I'll have to give the Vikes the edge and I expect them to win this game by at least 1 touchdown or more. No matter the end result, ladies and gents, please enjoy the game!!!


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

TommyGold
12-07-2009, 09:32 PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF)

Since their Bye Week on Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have improved their game and are now in the run for a spot on the wild card race for the playoffs and aside of the Browns, they had faced very difficult teams like the Colts at home or the Bengals on the road. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers after their Bye Week on Week 5 only lost 2 games, at home against the Vikings and on the road, against the Bucs.

Baltimore offense has sophomore a good QB Joe Flacco leading the team on the offense and he usually bids his time inside the pocket to make the best calls. However, this Baltimore team lately has not scored too many points, which is a trend to take in account for those who might consider the Under 43. On the passing game, the Ravens have WR Derrick Mason has Flacco's main target and he his the best wide receiver of the team. The TE Todd Heap is also very used and after these two, we have also Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington who are seldom used. On the running game, Baltimore main rusher is RB Ray Rice, who also is used sometimes as a wide receiver, and RB Willis McGahee, both are good options for the Ravens ground offense and both have 6 TD scored each.

On the defense, Baltimore has improved a lot their passing defense, and that is a good thing for tonight. The Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and they should do again a nice job like they've done lately. Against the rush, Baltimore has done greatly and since the Packers play much better on the passing game than on the ground offense, we should not expect to see Green Bay doing much more on the ground.

Green Bay defense is also very aggressive, and they have done well against the rushing game and the passing game, but against good offensive teams, they've suffered a lot of points. The Ravens offense is not a very prolific one, but they have been able to do balanced offense and their passing defense has not been the best. The running defense has been quite better, however Baltimore has good options on their running game and the Packers D will have some problems today.

The Packers passing game has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver, have been great lately and his Tight-Ends TE Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley aren't that bad either. They will face today a great defense tonight and their running game is solely based on Ryan Grant, who has nice numbers for this season, but he should not do greatly tonight.

Despite the good performance of the Green Bay passing game on their last games and they have the edge on the number of rest days, yet the Baltimore D is very seasoned and they always give their best and we count on them for a close win by at least on FG.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
12-13-2009, 12:59 AM
NFL 2009, Week 14, 4 point spreads and 3 totals:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek



Below is my Week 13 results recap:

90 - Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-44: WIN)
91 - Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek (24-27: WIN)
92 - Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-17: LOSS)
93 - New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (30-33 OT: LOSS)
94 - St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-9: LOSS)
95 - New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica (22-21: LOSS)
96 - San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (23-30: LOSS)
97 - Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
98 - Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-14: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-7; (Week 13: -5.18 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 46-51-1 (-9.17 units lost/97 units risked);
SIDES: 44-43 (-3.03 units won/87 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).

TommyGold
12-14-2009, 10:42 PM
Yesterday finished with a 4-2, 2-1 on pointspreads and 2-1 on totals.


Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have a good defense and their offense is also quite good, but despite playing at home tonight, they've had consistently lose all their important games against stronger teams during the current season by a 6/7 pts margin.

I don't expect them to win tonight against an Arizona team that leads their division and that has managed to win their games on the road and the Cards are showing a nice improvement on their last games too.

I think that the Cardinals offense has an edge for this game and they have enough quality to win this game by at least by a touchdown.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek

TommyGold
12-18-2009, 05:44 AM
First pick for NFL 2009, Week 15:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
12-19-2009, 04:16 AM
NFL 2009, Week 15, 5 spreads and 2 totals:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

I might still have something for the SNF and the MNF...



Below is my Week 14 results recap:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-10: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-26: WIN)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (10-16: WIN)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (14-21: WIN)
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: WIN)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (38-45: LOSS)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (24-9: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS: 2-1 (Week 14: +0.6 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 50-54-1 (-8.57 units lost/104 units risked);
SIDES: 46-45 (-3.25 units won/91 units risked);
TOTALS 4-9 (-5.32 units lost/13 units risked).

TommyGold
12-24-2009, 05:24 AM
NFL 2009 Week 16 first pick:

San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek & San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes


Below is my Week 15 results recap:

106 - Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-24: LOSS)
107 - Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-24 OT: LOSS)
108 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (34-41: WIN)
109 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-41: LOSS)
110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)
111 - Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-7: WIN)
112 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (7-24: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 14: -2.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 52-59-1 (-12.56 units lost/111 units risked);
SPREADS: 46-47-1 (-6.25 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 5-10 (-5.41 units lost/15 units risked);
ML: 1-2 (-0.9 units lost/3 units risked).

TommyGold
12-26-2009, 03:53 AM
NFL 2009 Week 16, final 12 picks:

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek & Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker & Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek & Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica & Baltimore Ravens & ML +130 (2.30) The Greek

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

TommyGold
12-30-2009, 04:49 AM
Below is my Week 16 results recap:

113 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-42: WIN)
114 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes (17-42: WIN)
115 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (23-9: LOSS)
116 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker (23-9: LOSS)
117 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (23-9: WIN)
118 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (17-10: WIN)
119 - Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (31-3: LOSS)
120 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (20-27: WIN)
121 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker (20-27: WIN)
122 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (23-20: PUSH/VOID)
123 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens ML +130 (2.30) The Greek (23-20: LOSS)
124 - New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (15-29: LOSS)
125 - Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-17: LOSS)
126 - Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (36-30 OT: LOSS)

SIDES: 5-7-1; TOTALS: 1-0 (Week 16: -0.79 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 58-66-2 (-13.35 units lost/124 units risked);
SPREADS: 49-52-2 (-8.6 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 6-10 (-4.5 units lost/16 units risked);
ML: 3-4 (-0.25 units lost/7 units risked).

Have to recognize my shortcomings when it comes to SNF and MNF games...

9-18 (0-6 on the last 4 weeks) and -9.85 units lost is not a great calling card...

Was doing great until Week 10, since Week 11 it was always downhill rock bottom... :|

TommyGold
01-03-2010, 06:14 AM
NFL 2009 Week 17, final 11 picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek

TommyGold
01-05-2010, 09:07 PM
Below is my Week 17 results recap:

127 - Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek (30-7: LOSS)
128 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek (23-17: WIN)
129 - Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (23-37: LOSS)
130 - New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-27: PUSH/VOID)
131 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (24-30: WIN)
132 - Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker (10-20: WIN)
133 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (24-0: LOSS)
134 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker (24-0: LOSS)
135 - Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes (13-21: WIN)
136 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-17: WIN)
137 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek (13-17: LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3-1; TOTALS: 0-2 (Week 17: -0.83 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);
SPREADS: 52-53-3 (-7.06 units lost/105 units risked);
TOTALS: 6-12 (-6.5 units lost/18 units risked);
ML: 5-6 (-0.62 units lost/11 units risked).


Brief Analysis:

Sunday and Monday Night Football games went 9-18, with 0-5 on Totals and 0-1 on Moneylines. This translated on -9.85 units lost.

Without those games, I would finish with a 54-53-3 season record and -4.33 units lost. A loss is always a loss, even if it is a small one.

Point spreads would finish 43-41 and -3.21 units lost, totals would end 6-7 and -1.5 units lost, moneylines would finish 5-5 and +0.38 units won.

Until 2009.11.29, the NFL 2009 Season record would 44-42-1, -1.99 units lost (86 units risked). Without the SNF and MNF games, the season record would be 35-32-1 and -0.14 units lost (67 units risked).

From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, the NFL 2009 Season record finished 19-29-2, -12.19 units lost (48 units risked) with a brutal 0-8 on SNF and MNF games, which if we take out of the record, would translate to a 19-21-2 record and -4.19 units lost (40 units risked).

So after all, even without the mess caused by the SNF and MNF games, my performance on NFL showed that this season I didn't showed a useful edge on any market, aside the dogs (an obvious one).

To simplify things, looking only at the underdogs market for the season, converting the ML Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)) in the pointspread, translates to Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (37-36: WIN)), which can be easily verified on any odds history service like the NFL Scores and Odds of the sbrforum.

The season record on dogs would finish 17-14-1, +1.13 units won (31 units risked). Without the 4 dogs on SNF and MNF games, the record would be 16-11-1, +3.33 units won.

Until 2009.11.29, 8-6-1, +1.13 units won (7-6-1, +0.33 units won without SNF and MNF games). From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, 9-8-1, ZERO units won (9-5-1, +3 units won without SNF and MNF games).

On the last 5 weeks of the season, besides the mess on the SNF and MNF games, I also failed to navigate on the favorite picks. I've done some research and on the previous 3 seasons (2006 to 2008), only on 2007 the favs manage to cover (big) since Week 9 until Week 17. On the other 2 seasons, the dogs were kings and did a lot of damage... :)

I don't have any kind of lines history information that go back in time as long as possible since 2005, so if you know anything about this, please let me know, because I would like to spend some time looking at previous seasons before 2006.

BTW, until 2009.11.29 my overall season performance on all sports combined without NFL (NHL+NBA+NCAAB) was -7.95 units lost and 334 units risked.

From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, NHL+NBA+NCAAB+NCAAF finished with +41.57 units won and 483 units risked. And if I took the college hoops moneylines out of the equation, my overall profits on the last 5 weeks show a great improvement: +54.72 units won and 457 units risked.

So, despite the bad NFL 2009 regular season, I've other motives of happiness, specially on the NBA. :P

TommyGold
01-09-2010, 07:25 PM
NFL 2010.01.09 final 3 picks:

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek

TommyGold
01-10-2010, 04:56 PM
NFL 2010.01.10 final 2 picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek

TommyGold
01-12-2010, 02:38 AM
Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Wild-Card Weekend results recap:

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-24: LOSS)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-14: LOSS)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek (34-14: LOSS)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-33: LOSS)
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek (51-45 OT: WIN)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 1-4 (-3.64 units lost/5 units risked);
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);

TommyGold
01-16-2010, 05:46 PM
NFL 2010.01.16 final 2 picks:

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker


NFL 2010.01.17 final 2 picks:

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold
01-24-2010, 07:02 AM
NFL 2010.01.24 final 3 picks:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets +8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets ML +315 (4.15) Bookmaker

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

* One unit each always.



Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Divisional Playoffs Weekend results recap:

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (45-14: WIN)
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (20-3: WIN)
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (34-3: WIN)
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-17: LOSS)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 4-5 (-1.95 units lost/9 units risked)
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked)

TommyGold
01-25-2010, 04:33 PM
NFL 2010.01.24 final pick:

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes, Bet Jamaica

* One unit each always.



Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Conference Championships Weekend results recap:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets +8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets ML +315 (4.15) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-28 OT: LOSS)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 4-8 (-4.95 units lost/12 units risked);
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);

TommyGold
02-07-2010, 05:00 PM
NFL 2010.02.07 only pick:

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are almost a perfect team, when they wanted to play at their best, they did it quite well. The Saints on the road lacked the same effort and mostly, the same results at home on their last trips, winning several games by less than 7 points against lowly teams. Now they will face the most difficult opponent they could this year and there is a slight edge favoring Manning due to his experience and his almost perfect way of playing. He remembers me Alain Prost, The Professor of F1, by the way he pushed the car without endangering his performance, the same does Peyton Manning. Rivers is well served on his offense, both for the passing game as for the running game as well, but the Saints overall did their best performances this year at home and this is their first big game and the Colts already know how to play it, so in terms of pressure, this New Orleans team is more vulnerable.

On the defense, Freeney is the great question mark for the Colts (I think he will not play) and his absence might balance both teams, since he could do a lot of damage to the Saints OL. Indianapolis showed that they can win games even when things are going very bad like they did at home against the Patriots, but this season they showed also a lot of close results, so the Saints have here something to start with. I believe both teams can pose problems for the opponent defenses and sometimes the offenses will prevail, others won't. This is a great game and I don't see anyone losing it big, but I think that the Colts are due for another Super Bowl thanks for having the most experienced and seasoned quarterback, who also has a very experienced team on both ends, and this experience will prevail in the end, with the Colts winning this game by a 10 points margin, give or take.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -4.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

*One unit each always.

TommyGold
02-13-2010, 05:30 PM
Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Super Bowl XLIV Weekend results recap:

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (31-17: LOSS)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 4-9 (-5.95 units lost/13 units risked)
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked)



No edge this season, unlike NBA or NHL so far:

NHL since 2009.11.23: 115-116-4, +30.94 units won (231 units risked until 2010.02.12, 13,394% yield)

NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 228-166-6, +41.52 units won (394 units risked until 2010.02.11, 10,538% yield)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 35-47, +8.31 units won (82 units risked until 2010.02.11, 10,13415% yield)