#2;#3;#4 after Wimbledon? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

#2;#3;#4 after Wimbledon?

cocrcici
05-03-2009, 07:07 PM
I have no idea...:devil:

duong
05-03-2009, 07:10 PM
if you take out the points until Wimbledon (included),

here's the summary so far :

Nadal 9 955
Murray 8 190
Djokovic 7 120
Federer 6 220

it's possible to win nearly 5500 points

pogotheorist
05-03-2009, 07:33 PM
it's possible to win nearly 5500 points
... which is of course what Nadal's defending: 5450 from wins in last clay Masters' (was Hamburg, now Madrid), RG, Queen's and Wimbledon.

Incidentally, if you look at Rafa's best-18 list at the moment, it's sporting 11 W's. That's about as good as it gets - Roger had 11 in 2005, 11 plus TMC in 2006.

pica_pica
05-03-2009, 07:34 PM
Got to be interesting. Rankings finally becoming more fluid in ATP at the top.
I think we should drop the Top 4 talk. There is the top 1 + the next 3. Draws and matchups will matter a lot to the ranking changes.

LinkMage
05-03-2009, 07:36 PM
#2: Safin
#3: Wawrinka
#4: Rafito

Andi-M
05-03-2009, 07:44 PM
2. Murray
3. Djokovic
4. Federer.....i'm even questioing his chances of making W final.

Ivo#1Fan
05-03-2009, 07:45 PM
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic
4) Federer

1 isn't hard to pick, I'm pretty sure Fed will be #4. Murray Djokovic I think comes down to how they do relative to each other at the French. If Djoker makes it to the final and Murray loses before the semis then I think it will be Djoker at #2 but otherwise I think Murray will come through #2.

out_here_grindin
05-03-2009, 07:47 PM
Djokovic should be #2. He is the favorite to make the RG final and he has nothing but points to gain from Wimby after last year's loss to Safin.

But If Federe does drop to 3 or 4 wouldn't it be weird to have a Nadal/Fed semifinal.

Ivo#1Fan
05-03-2009, 07:49 PM
Djokovic should be #2. He is the favorite to make the RG final and he has nothing but points to gain from Wimby after last year's loss to Safin.

But If Federe does drop to 3 or 4 wouldn't it be weird to have a Nadal/Fed semifinal.

Yes, very weird. And wouldn't it be weird if Nadal crushes him in straight sets. I could see that in the semis.

pogotheorist
05-03-2009, 07:58 PM
Djokovic should be #2. He is the favorite to make the RG final
Though it's a 50% chance he'll draw Nadal in the semis. The RG draw will be huge.

duong
05-03-2009, 08:00 PM
But If Federe does drop to 3 or 4 wouldn't it be weird to have a Nadal/Fed semifinal.

Federer will be number 2 seed in Wimbledon anyway because of the way the seeds are done in that tournament (they count twice the tournaments in grass last year and also the tournaments on grass two years ago are counted for 50%).

For Roland-Garros, Murray (and only him, not Djokovic) can take the number 2 seed if he wins Madrid and Federer doesn't reach the final in that tournament.

For the US Open and later, of course everything's opened.

chowdahead25
05-03-2009, 08:21 PM
1- Nadal
2- Djokovic (Only because he isnt defending diddly poo here, and Muzza doesnt make semis at RG)
3- Federer
4- Murray

sphiie
05-03-2009, 10:19 PM
1 - Nadal
2 - Djokovic
3 - Federer
4 - Murray

Manon
05-03-2009, 10:30 PM
#2: Safin
#3: Wawrinka
#4: Rafito

Best response of the month.

Manon
05-03-2009, 10:32 PM
Btw, Roger will be No.2 after Wimbledon.

Pfloyd
05-03-2009, 10:33 PM
Does it really matter?

Tournaments are much more important than rankings, IMO.

Mechlan
05-03-2009, 10:49 PM
#2 is really all that matters. I'm going to guess Murray, but it could easily be Djokovic or Federer.

duong
05-03-2009, 10:51 PM
Does it really matter?

Tournaments are much more important than rankings, IMO.

What does matter in all the bullshit of this forum ? :lol:

cocrcici
05-03-2009, 10:53 PM
What does matter in all the bullshit of this forum ? :lol:

:lol:

pogotheorist
05-03-2009, 11:25 PM
Btw, Roger will be No.2 after Wimbledon.
Nadal 9 955
Murray 8 190
Djokovic 7 120
Federer 6 220
He just needs to win 900 points more than Djoko, and 1970 more than Murray, in the next 4 events, despite being well behind their pace through the first 4 months of the year.

To a person who doesn't think, the truth of what seems obvious to a person who doesn't think seems obvious.

habibko
05-03-2009, 11:37 PM
What does matter in all the bullshit of this forum ? :lol:

you got a point :lol:

also there is no one who can currently take Federer out in Wimbledon except Nadal, he is good enough to be secured a place in the final already.

Djokovic has Safin to worry about, and there is always Roddick as well, Murray can win a tight 4/5 setter against someone and lose the next match, however Murray has more chances in Wimbledon than Djokovic in my book.

duong
05-03-2009, 11:42 PM
He just needs to win 900 points more than Djoko, and 1970 more than Murray, in the next 4 events, despite being well behind their pace through the first 4 months of the year.

To a person who doesn't think, the truth of what seems obvious to a person who doesn't think seems obvious.

If Federer wins Wimbledon, and Djokovic and Murray are not in the final, he gets a minimum of 1280 points more than both of them in that only tournament.

The points system gives so many points for the final rounds, that huge differences can be made in Roland-Garros and Wimbledon.

If you just think that Federer is not able to reach any of the finals in Roland-Garros or Wimbledon, then yes he will be number 4.
But this can be discussed by some people without being totally stupid. This is not mathematical.

heya
05-03-2009, 11:43 PM
The light is fading (for fed fans) if you're interested in tennis instead of walking on egg shells around Federer.

vidanhv
05-03-2009, 11:45 PM
Just as it is now.
Nadal
Fed
Djoko
Muzza

Pfloyd
05-03-2009, 11:52 PM
What does matter in all the bullshit of this forum ? :lol:

Good point. ;)

Well, I suppose discussion of tactics, statistics and other things are a bit better than, oh damn, Robredo is a top 10 player what the hell is wrong with tennis?

But yeah, I agree with your comment.

pogotheorist
05-04-2009, 12:09 AM
If Federer wins Wimbledon, and Djokovic and Murray are not in the final, he gets a minimum of 1280 points more than both of them... this can be discussed by some people without being totally stupid.
Indeed, to try to see the future in the past one must judge which patterns will hold and which will be broken: Federer's string of RG finals, or his winless streak against others in Big 4, for example. I'm not saying the future is obvious. I'm saying that it's NOT obvious, so unsupported assertions about it are just noise.

Naive and quixotic to speak against a howler monkey ethos? Well, if one expected that to change it. Call it an instinctive though consciously purposeless protest at imprisonment on the planet of the apes. ;)

~*BGT*~
05-04-2009, 01:30 AM
Remember Djokovic lost, what, in the 2nd round last year? He can get a lot of points with a good result.

marcRD
05-04-2009, 01:54 AM
I think Federer will win Wimbledon so I think he will hold nr2. Murray will go up to nr3.

Florida
05-04-2009, 02:31 AM
Rafa will take FO no matter who he is playing against in the finals. Rafa is in a league by itself! Most likely it will be Rafa-Nole Semi finals;

I am not too sure about Federer as far as FO is concerned? If I was on Fed's place, I would skip FO, get ready for the birth of his child and Wimby and practice hard for Wimby so he can get that title back, since I believe that is one slam he has a chance of winning this year provided he gets his act together. And as he mentioned he does not care much about rankings he cares about 2 more GS. As per Federer, it's #1 or nothing else."

I am also not sure about Andy on Clay? Curious to see how he will defend Madrid (he is the defending champion, last year it was played on HC, but is changed to clay)? I hope he makes a good run on clay so he can gain some points at the FO since he is not defending any, but he is defending Wimby semi-final and with Fed, Rafa and Nole around, not too sure what is going to happen.

Nole on the other hand is defending semi-finals in Paris and he should be able to defend that! He already proved his clay court game! I don't see him making the finals, because with his luck he will end up in Nadal's side of the draw and will loose to Nadal in the semis. However, I don't believe he is defending any points in Madrid? (I may be wrong?!), but I know he is not defending anything in Wimby so he will be able to gain there!

We shall see!!!!

duong
05-04-2009, 02:56 AM
I think that we could get some surprises.

Imo the fact that Nadal wins everywhere on clay this year decreases his chances to win Roland-Garros, as only an injury (maybe intense tiredness) can prevent him from winning Roland-Garros.

And I think that considering the fact that Roland-Garros is usually not as quick as Rome, I think it's better for Murray and less good for Djokovic.

Normally it's the opposite in Wimbledon : more a surface for Djoko imo. But it will be in his country then Murray will be very motivated, which I think is very important for this player.

As for the rankings after Wimbledon, I would still believe in
1 Nadal
2 Murray
3 Djokovic
4 Federer

philosophicalarf
05-04-2009, 03:05 AM
Murray will probably take number 2 after Roland Garros, he has so few points to defend. Can see him losing it again after that though, esp if Djoko does anything at WImbledon (with only a rnd2 to defend). Then he defends Cincinatti win, US Open final, Madrid win, Paris quarters, TMC semis - very tough ask. Only at the Aus Open does he get some relief cos of the R16 exit, but then it starts again with Rotterdam win, IW final, Miami win.

Federer is doomed to be no4 until he wins a slam again, given he does nothing in masters these days. Last year he at least lifted himself for the clay season, this year he did even worse there so far.

Djokovic can bounce between number2 and number4. The problem for him is that it appears at present Nadal will beat him on clay, Murray will beat him on hard (+possibly Fed at the slams again), and indoors he's no great shakes, so Paris, Shanghai and TMC aren't good hunting grounds either (yes he won TMC this year, with a deal of luck, but check his madrid and particularly paris record). He needs an awful lot of consistency to sustain number 2 with only semis and finals, but few Ws. He hasn't defended the Aus Open, Rome or Indian Wells, so unless he sustains this run of masters finals (3 in a row now!) things will get very difficult for him on the rankings front.

heartbroken
05-04-2009, 03:50 AM
What does matter in all the bullshit of this forum ? :lol:

:lol:

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 04:00 AM
For Roland-Garros, Murray (and only him, not Djokovic) can take the number 2 seed if he wins Madrid and Federer doesn't reach the final in that tournament.

can you provide some numbers with calculation to support that?
thx

chowdahead25
05-04-2009, 04:01 AM
Murray aint winning Madrid.
He is average on clay at best.

philosophicalarf
05-04-2009, 04:23 AM
can you provide some numbers with calculation to support that?
thx

Post-Rome, and minus last year's Hamburg...

Fed 10170 - final(700) = 9470
Murray 8990 - R16(150) = 8840
Djoko 8760 - semi(450) = 8310


Madrid under new system is worth 1k for the winner, 600 finalist, 360 semis, 180 quarters. So if Murray wins he has 9840, Fed needs a final to overtake. Only going to happen if Nadal withdraws though.

For Djoko there's the hooplah over the Belgrade points, which I can't be bothered thinking about. Regardless, he can't overtake Fed, too far behind.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 04:25 AM
#2: Djokovic
#3: Federer
#4: Murray
---------------
Rationale:

#2: Djoker is #4 now, and with his level of game, it's hard to understand that. Is it the new ranking system, or so strong competition? (With old ranking system he would've been #3 steady). His game is upward now, so the second-best claycourt player who has 16 points to lose at W, is gonna make to #2 easily.

#3: Roger has two Chasers. They both are 6 years younger, have their game amongst the best, and were beating him recently in H2H matches! So, ONE of them are gonna take him down from #2 position, for sure. Maybe even before Wimby(?). Plus: Roger's game is downhill for the last year and a half(!).

However, due to his grass quality game, he might stop by at the #3, rather than dropping to #4. At the USO Rog is gonna be #4 seed, since the other chaser is gona take him down before then.

#4: Murray has some quality, but that guy has poor record at the GS (one semi and one final, so far??). 5 Setter matches doesn't appear to fit his mind well, so those Big Three with some underdogs (Tsonga, Roddick, Delpo, Simon, Davydenko...) are gonna mess up with him at the GSs. If Delpo does excellent at GSs, #4 might be at danger for Murray.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 04:36 AM
Post-Rome, and minus last year's Hamburg...

Fed 10170 - final(700) = 9470
Murray 8990 - R16(150) = 8840
Djoko 8760 - semi(450) = 8310


Madrid under new system is worth 1k for the winner, 600 finalist, 360 semis, 180 quarters. So if Murray wins he has 9840, Fed needs a final to overtake. Only going to happen if Nadal withdraws though.

For Djoko there's the hooplah over the Belgrade points, which I can't be bothered thinking about. Regardless, he can't overtake Fed, too far behind.

yeah, thx.

Seems like Rog's gonna be #2 seed at FO!! Coz we can't count on Murr to win Madrid with Nadal playing there. So, then everything depends on the draw at RG.

If Djoker is in Roger's half, then likely Rog's gonna lose his #2 then and there! And Djoker goes to #2.

If Djoker is in Nadal's half then the things are different. Rog has fair chance to make it to final again, and keep his #2!! (based on presumption that he's got better game on clay than Murr). However, had Murr scrap Rog at bthe possibly semi clash, then Murr is #2, and Rog's #4!!

So, in any type of draws (at FO), my analysys show that Rog's gonna drop from #2 right at the FO!!

jmf07
05-04-2009, 04:45 AM
After FO
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Murray

After Wimbledon
2. Djokovic
3. Federer
4. Murray

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 04:49 AM
Post-Rome, and minus last year's Hamburg...
Fed 10170 - final(700) = 9470
Murray 8990 - R16(150) = 8840
Djoko 8760 - semi(450) = 8310
Madrid under new system is worth 1k for the winner, 600 finalist, 360 semis, 180 quarters

I think that new ranking system sucks! Rog is playing slumpy for over 8 months, being beaten by all three main competitiors persistently, yet no one cannot take him down from #2!!
Just b/c he made it to the AO final!! And who did he beat enroute? Andy Roddick.(?) Period! System sucks.

Under the new ranking system someone can make it to final GS by fluke, and then he can ejoy sitting high and comfortable for a long time.!!? While some players can work really hard, winning matches and tournaments, yet they can only be sitting at the foot of that fluke!??

The new system is more for gamblers, rather than for serious players. It's not gonna last long, am sure.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 04:53 AM
Isn't Rog going to lose some points (250) for skipping Estoril? He won that one last year?? And what about Halle (another 250)??

duong
05-04-2009, 05:00 AM
For Djoko there's the hooplah over the Belgrade points, which I can't be bothered thinking about. Regardless, he can't overtake Fed, too far behind.

at most he gets 160 points (a win : 250 points minus 90 points his lowest result).

Anyway it wouldn't be enough.

duong
05-04-2009, 05:02 AM
Isn't Rog going to lose some points (250) for skipping Estoril? He won that one last year?? And what about Halle (another 250)??

the first one is already skipped, the second one is after Roland-Garros then doesn't count for the seeds there, but is already counted in the figures after Wimbledon which I'v already mentioned here.

duong
05-04-2009, 05:08 AM
#2: Djoker is #4 now, and with his level of game, it's hard to understand that. Is it the new ranking system, or so strong competition?

(With old ranking system he would've been #3 steady).

For the last part (in dark) the answer is no (Federer 5590 Murray 4855 Djokovic 4730 ... even if he wins Belgrade Djokovic would have 4815 points)

duong
05-04-2009, 05:15 AM
I think that new ranking system sucks! Rog is playing slumpy for over 8 months, being beaten by all three main competitiors persistently, yet no one cannot take him down from #2!!

As I told you last post this is not related at all with the new ranking system.

The ranking has always been on 12 months and then includes not only Us open (Federer won) but also his two finals in Roland-Garros and Wimbledon last year.

And as you could see in previous figures Federer is likely to drop number 2 after these two tournaments except if he does the same results as last year. New or old ranking system the same. And slams are what counts most.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 05:33 AM
As I told you last post this is not related at all with the new ranking system.

The ranking has always been on 12 months and then includes not only Us open (Federer won) but also his two finals in Roland-Garros and Wimbledon last year.

And as you could see in previous figures Federer is likely to drop number 2 after these two tournaments except if he does the same results as last year. New or old ranking system the same. And slams are what counts most.

Thanks.
I thought that under new system players get less points (by percentage) for making s/f and for runner-up, than before? (for runner-up 60% of the winner's points, instead of 70% under old system).

Whatever the reason, besides the USO title and those GS semi and Finals, Federer didn't win decent tourney for more than a year and a half now!?? (His last MS title was at the Cincy 2007!!). This season (again except AO) he didn't make any of the finals at all!??

That's ridiculous! And that guy is sittin' at World #2!! Steady?? OMG! Something has to be changed in the system. All I know is I am gonna be very happy once he dropped from #2, taken down by Mr. Whoever! That'll make my year, for sure!

And that's all Djoker's fault. He should've taken him down for several times already. However, he chocked every time!?? So, now, Mr. Djoker go to #4!! That's where you belong.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 05:55 AM
Rafa will take FO no matter who he is playing against in the finals. Most likely it will be Rafa-Nole Semi finals;


MOst likely? Since when 50% of a chance is "most likely"?:rolleyes:

Unless you have some info that the draw is gonna be rigged!??

duong
05-04-2009, 06:01 AM
Thanks.
I thought that under new system players get less points (by percentage) for making s/f and for runner-up, than before? (for runner-up 60% of the winner's points, instead of 70% under old system).

yes

Whatever the reason, besides the USO title and those GS semi and Finals, Federer didn't win decent tourney for more than a year and a half now!?? (His last MS title was at the Cincy 2007!!). This season (again except AO) he didn't make any of the finals at all!??

That's ridiculous! And that guy is sittin' at World #2!! Steady?? OMG! Something has to be changed in the system. All I know is I am gonna be very happy once he dropped from #2, taken down by Mr. Whoever! That'll make my year, for sure!

And that's all Djoker's fault. He should've taken him down for several times already. However, he chocked every time!?? So, now, Mr. Djoker go to #4!! That's where you belong.

first you said that if Djoko is number 4, it's either because of the new ranking system (I proved not) or because of the "strong competition" : now you basically say that they are all bad :lol:

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 06:23 AM
yes



first you said that if Djoko is number 4, it's either because of the new ranking system (I proved not) or because of the "strong competition" : now you basically say that they are all bad :lol:

yes.
because the first one had to do with Djoker's play in total, and the second one is to do with Federer's slumpy play and position #2. See the difference? And when i said to Djoker to go to #4, I meant: go and pay the price (of your letting Rog getting away with a slumpy play).

Stefanos13
05-04-2009, 07:50 AM
On a slightly different note (I didn't want to create a thread for it):

Does anybody know why Federer's points from his Estoril win don't appear in his points breakdown? It's a 250 tournament.

Thank you.

duong
05-04-2009, 07:59 AM
On a slightly different note (I didn't want to create a thread for it):

Does anybody know why Federer's points from his Estoril win don't appear in his points breakdown? It's a 250 tournament.

Thank you.

Estoril was earlier last year, then these points are already taken off.

Stefanos13
05-04-2009, 08:01 AM
Estoril was earlier last year, then these points are already taken off.

Thank you! Now I know :)

Halba
05-04-2009, 08:35 AM
rankings same, muzza is poo on dirt

philosophicalarf
05-04-2009, 12:39 PM
Whatever the reason, besides the USO title and those GS semi and Finals, Federer didn't win decent tourney for more than a year and a half now!?? (His last MS title was at the Cincy 2007!!). This season (again except AO) he didn't make any of the finals at all!??



The rankings aren't based on this season though, they're the last 12months. He's made the final of all four slams and won one, so gets a bucketload of points from that (6000!).

The real danger for Federer comes now - he has to make the Madrid, Roland Garros and Wimbledon finals just to stand still.

adingh
05-04-2009, 01:16 PM
#2 Djokovic
#3 Murray
#4 Federer

zlaja777
05-04-2009, 02:41 PM
1) Nadal
2) Federer
3) Djokovic
4) Murray

maki925
05-04-2009, 02:47 PM
2 Djokovic
3 Federer
4 Murray

Fumus
05-04-2009, 03:11 PM
2-Djoko
3-Muzz
4-Fed

yellowboy906
05-04-2009, 04:54 PM
is there a chance for fed to be #3 before roland garros? would be nice for me to see him play nadal in semi.

w78dexon_y
05-04-2009, 05:04 PM
is there a chance for fed to be #3 before roland garros? would be nice for me to see him play nadal in semi.

slight. Only IF:

- Murray wins Madrid
- Rog does poor

Even then there is 50% chance that Rog be on the other side (than Rafa's) half of the draw.
So, I wouldn't count on that one.
Most likely he won't be facing Rafa at this RG at all.(?). He might lose before the final (to Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Monaco, Gonzales...). If Rog makes semi that would be more than a bonus for him.

pogotheorist
05-05-2009, 08:57 PM
Here's a worksheet for anyone interested in exploring pass possibilities for #2 and #3 post-Madrid and post-RG, assuming Nole wins Belgrade:
18-May 08-Jun
base +Madrid +Madrid+RG

Federer 9470 8070
Murray 8840 8690
Djokovic 8470 7570


points on offer: R1 R2 R3 R4 QF SF F W
Madrid - 10 90 - 180 360 600 1000
RG 10 45 90 180 360 720 1200 2000
Concept: "relative gain" - points one player makes, minus what the other makes.

So:
Andy #2 after Madrid: relative gain 630; needs title, with Roger not making final.
Nole #3 after Madrid: relative gain 370; needs title, or (final, with Andy not making SF).

Andy passes Roger after RG: needs better than relative loss of 620, e.g.

same round in Madrid, Roger F & Andy SF in RG

Nole passes Roger after RG: needs relative gain of 500, e.g.

Nole final & Roger SF in RG, and Nole one round further in Madrid

Nole passes Andy after RG: needs 1120-point relative gain, e.g

Nole final & Andy R4 in RG, Nole further in Madrid

So eyes on the prize in Madrid, boys - there's a good chance it will determine who passes whom post-RG.

cocrcici
05-05-2009, 09:06 PM
:yeah:

pica_pica
05-06-2009, 04:02 PM
Here's a worksheet for anyone interested in exploring pass possibilities for #2 and #3 post-Madrid and post-RG, assuming Nole wins Belgrade:
18-May 08-Jun
base +Madrid +Madrid+RG

Federer 9470 8070
Murray 8840 8690
Djokovic 8470 7570


points on offer: R1 R2 R3 R4 QF SF F W
Madrid - 10 90 - 180 360 600 1000
RG 10 45 90 180 360 720 1200 2000
Concept: "relative gain" - points one player makes, minus what the other makes.

So:
Andy #2 after Madrid: relative gain 630; needs title, with Roger not making final.
Nole #3 after Madrid: relative gain 370; needs title, or (final, with Andy not making SF).

Andy passes Roger after RG: needs better than relative loss of 620, e.g.

same round in Madrid, Roger F & Andy SF in RG

Nole passes Roger after RG: needs relative gain of 500, e.g.

Nole final & Roger SF in RG, and Nole one round further in Madrid

Nole passes Andy after RG: needs 1120-point relative gain, e.g

Nole final & Andy R4 in RG, Nole further in Madrid

So eyes on the prize in Madrid, boys - there's a good chance it will determine who passes whom post-RG.
:yeah:
Nice work
I hope Nole can keep his good form on clay!!!

christallh24
05-06-2009, 05:10 PM
I hope so, too, Pica_Pica. I makes me a little ill to think Andy could get the No.2ranking before Nole.

pogotheorist
05-17-2009, 01:58 PM
Pass possibilities for #2 and #3 at RG (assuming Nadal wins Madrid final, which feels wicked but is legal; will edit if Roger surprises)

May 18 points - RG2008 = June 8 base (points good after June 8 which are already earned)

Federer 10470 - 1400 = 9070
Murray 9020 - 150 = 8870
Djokovic 8830 - 900 = 7930


plus RG points: R1 R2 R3 R4 QF SF F W
10 45 90 180 360 720 1200 2000
So:

for Andy to pass Roger: needs better than relative gain of 200 - basically, has go one round further at RG.

for Nole to pass Roger: needs relative gain of 1140, e.g. Nole title & Fed SF.

for Nole to pass Andy: needs relative gain of 940, e.g Nole final & Andy R4.

Roger-to-#4 scenarios require a few things to line up, e.g. Nole F, Roger QF & Andy SF.

Nole-to-#2: needs final with Andy not QF and Roger not R3, or title, with Andy not F and Roger not SF.

("relative gain" - points one player makes, minus what the other makes.)

NadalSharapova
05-17-2009, 01:59 PM
Federer will be 4th. Murray and Djokovic will be 2nd and 3rd but now sure which order.

bounccer
06-12-2009, 10:08 AM
Bump

Venle
06-12-2009, 10:22 AM
It's a good question, should be very interesting. :)

If Nadal doesn't play Wimbledon, will he still be number one?

My list:
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Djokovic

duong
06-12-2009, 10:27 AM
Everything here :

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=135329&page=63

(posts 936 and 943)

SerenaFederer
06-12-2009, 11:59 AM
:lol: amazing how many people predicted roger had too much to defend but won the last two big tournies :lol:

el tenista
06-12-2009, 12:09 PM
Why only #2, #3 and #4? Nadal's No. 1 is in doubt as well. If he loses in tne quarters or before and if Federer wins Wimbledon, the Swiss will be the new No.1!
We've just seen in RG that everything is possible.

born_on_clay
06-12-2009, 02:05 PM
2 Murray
3 Djoko
4 Federer

pogotheorist
06-14-2009, 05:36 PM
Filling in enough to answer pass-requirement questions:

June 15 points - Wim2008 = base + Wim2009 = possible outcomes

Rafa 12735-2000 = 10735 + ? = 10915 11095 11455 11935 12735
Roger 10620-1400 = 9220 + ? = 9400 9580 9940 10420 11220
Andy 9230 - 500 = 8730 + ? = 8910 9090 9450 9930 10730
Nole 7860 - 70 = 7790 + ? = 8510 8990 9790

R1 R2 R3 R4 QF SF F W
10 45 90 180 360 720 1200 2000
So

Andy can't catch Rafa;
to catch Roger, Andy needs SF with Roger out by R4, final with Roger out by QF, or title;
to catch Andy, Nole needs final with Andy out by R4, or title & Andy not in final;
to catch Roger, Nole needs title with Roger out by QF;
to catch Rafa, Roger needs title with Rafa out by QF;
Roger can end up #4 (combine conditions 2 & 4: out by QFs & Nole beats Andy in the final; or out by R4, Nole W, Andy SF).

duong
06-14-2009, 06:06 PM
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=135329&page=65

(post 968)

pogotheorist
06-21-2009, 03:33 AM
June 15 points - Wim2008 = base + Wim2009 = possible outcomes

Rafa 12735-2000 = 10735 + 0 = 10735
Roger 10620-1400 = 9220 + ? = 9400 9580 9940 10420 11220
Andy 9230 - 500 = 8730 + ? = 8910 9090 9450 9930 10730
Nole 7860 - 70 = 7790 + ? = 8510 8990 9790

R1 R2 R3 R4 QF SF F W
10 45 90 180 360 720 1200 2000

two more points - one a result of Rafa's withdrawal, one just musing:

with Rafa getting the 0, Roger takes #1 with title; Andy misses by 5 points, but gets it when his Indianopolis penalty expires on July 20. So if these two make the final: Rafa has lost #1, and they're playing for #1, as well as Roger's all-time slam record, as well as first British Wimbledon in 73 years. Yikes.
interesting to speculate on who Roger would cheer for if he goes out by QFs & it's a Nole / Andy final: Nole, even though that would push him down to #4, or Andy - who would then be the guy to knock Rafa out of #1. Which would hurt Roger less? :confused:

twisturhead
06-21-2009, 03:51 AM
ahahahahahahahaha at roger being number 4

chowdahead25
06-21-2009, 06:40 AM
1. Federer
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Djokovic.





Book it.

Mechlan
06-21-2009, 08:36 AM
Great bump. Who thought #1 would be up for grabs after Wimbledon?

dodo
06-21-2009, 08:42 AM
2 Murray
3 Djoko
4 Federer
you are being very kind to old roger. are you sure he can keep his top 10 position?

Dini
06-21-2009, 08:51 AM
2. Murray
3. Djokovic
4. Federer.....i'm even questioing his chances of making W final.

1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic
4) Federer

1 isn't hard to pick, I'm pretty sure Fed will be #4. Murray Djokovic I think comes down to how they do relative to each other at the French. If Djoker makes it to the final and Murray loses before the semis then I think it will be Djoker at #2 but otherwise I think Murray will come through #2.

Djokovic should be #2. He is the favorite to make the RG final and he has nothing but points to gain from Wimby after last year's loss to Safin.

But If Federe does drop to 3 or 4 wouldn't it be weird to have a Nadal/Fed semifinal.

1- Nadal
2- Djokovic (Only because he isnt defending diddly poo here, and Muzza doesnt make semis at RG)
3- Federer
4- Murray

1 - Nadal
2 - Djokovic
3 - Federer
4 - Murray

Interesting.

Rafa will take FO no matter who he is playing against in the finals. Rafa is in a league by itself! Most likely it will be Rafa-Nole Semi finals;

I am not too sure about Federer as far as FO is concerned? If I was on Fed's place, I would skip FO, get ready for the birth of his child and Wimby and practice hard for Wimby so he can get that title back, since I believe that is one slam he has a chance of winning this year provided he gets his act together. And as he mentioned he does not care much about rankings he cares about 2 more GS. As per Federer, it's #1 or nothing else."

I am also not sure about Andy on Clay? Curious to see how he will defend Madrid (he is the defending champion, last year it was played on HC, but is changed to clay)? I hope he makes a good run on clay so he can gain some points at the FO since he is not defending any, but he is defending Wimby semi-final and with Fed, Rafa and Nole around, not too sure what is going to happen.

Nole on the other hand is defending semi-finals in Paris and he should be able to defend that! He already proved his clay court game! I don't see him making the finals, because with his luck he will end up in Nadal's side of the draw and will loose to Nadal in the semis. However, I don't believe he is defending any points in Madrid? (I may be wrong?!), but I know he is not defending anything in Wimby so he will be able to gain there!

We shall see!!!!

:tape:

lina_seta
06-21-2009, 09:03 AM
lol so funny to read HOW WRONG people's predictions are
they still dont learn u CANT predict based entirely on recent outcomes

WRONG WRONG WRONG
born_on_shit WRONG

HarryMan
06-21-2009, 09:36 AM
slight. Only IF:

- Murray wins Madrid
- Rog does poor

Even then there is 50% chance that Rog be on the other side (than Rafa's) half of the draw.
So, I wouldn't count on that one.
Most likely he won't be facing Rafa at this RG at all.(?). He might lose before the final (to Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Monaco, Gonzales...). If Rog makes semi that would be more than a bonus for him.

You got that right. :D

Sunset of Age
06-21-2009, 11:35 AM
Jolly stuff to read back on, here. :yeah:

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-21-2009, 01:55 PM
The "predictions" on MTF go something like this (from fans of both sides). As soon as the player an MTF tard doesn't like has a few bad results, they "predict" (and fully believe what they are saying) that he is done. The Fed haters had their moment on this thread "predicting" him to fall to #4. We are seeing similar "predictions" being made now in relation to Nadal.

duong
06-21-2009, 03:36 PM
interesting to speculate on who Roger would cheer for if he goes out by QFs & it's a Nole / Andy final: Nole, even though that would push him down to #4, or Andy - who would then be the guy to knock Rafa out of #1. Which would hurt Roger less? :confused:

Actualy, in this quite special case where Federer would be beaten (for instance by Tsonga) in quarterfinals, and Djokovic would beat Murray in the final, it's true that Federer would become number 4 right after Wimbledon ... but the situation would become incredibly tight and even quite crazy in the next months :

especially Federer would be certain to come back from number 4 to number 1 on the 3rd of august ... without doing anything :crazy:

The points would be like that on the 3rd of august (and still until the beginning of Montreal) :

1. Federer 9420
2. Nadal 9285
3. Djokovic 9020
4. Murray 8740

it would become extremely dramatical :D

pogotheorist
06-21-2009, 05:14 PM
So Wimbledon may end with Rafa still #1, but sure to be replaced by Andy on July 20 who is sure to be replaced by Roger on Aug 3!

A result of the Olympic calendar shuffle - points from two Masters' events dropping off weeks before they can be defended. Very strange. See Duong's post in the rankings thread (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showpost.php?p=8741902&postcount=998) for the numbers.

MacTheKnife
06-21-2009, 07:29 PM
Good bump. It's so easy to look really stupid.