Will R.Federer become #1 again? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Will R.Federer become #1 again?

Lin Lin
04-29-2009, 02:26 AM
I like him so much, hope he will and I think he can:);)

prima donna
04-29-2009, 02:26 AM
No.

case
04-29-2009, 02:32 AM
:haha: whats with including the first name initial?

am i wrong or is there another federer??
this is a tennis site -a wild guess is that we all know federer from joe blow federer!!!!!!

of course its been so long since he was relevant to tennis that some might need a first initial here!!!!:haha:

Sunset of Age
04-29-2009, 02:33 AM
Don't think so. He had his chance at the beginning of this year - if he'd been able to take AO and at least one of the Miami/IW-titles - but as he did not, the odds look rather dark for him now, if not to say his chances are near to zero.

Doesn't make any difference to me though. Only Lendl once was able to regain his #1 status after a long period of domination.

I do hope he will manage to match (if not break) Sampras' # of GS titles in the years to come. He still has some good chances of being able to do so.

Ackms421
04-29-2009, 02:34 AM
Nope, don't see it happening. But it should be said that while things look dire for him now (between slams), he has made the last four slam finals. :shrug:

His play has been piss poor for a few months now (for him), but we won't really know until he goes out early in a slam. After the French and Wimbledon we will know something.

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 02:42 AM
Weve had this thread before. It will be hard after his loss at the AO, he would have to get over that loss completely first.

Johnny Groove
04-29-2009, 02:45 AM
No chance.

Daniel
04-29-2009, 02:46 AM
Yes he will.

LinkMage
04-29-2009, 02:48 AM
Nope, but who cares?

Only important thing is to win 2 more Slams. :)

Sunset of Age
04-29-2009, 02:50 AM
Nope, but who cares?

Only important thing is to win 2 more Slams. :)

Spot on. I hope he will. :rocker2:

Ackms421
04-29-2009, 02:58 AM
Two more slams? Which two slams do you people think he will win? Sure, Sampras bagged a late one, but he had big weapons that were independent from one another. If the movement wasn't great, the serve and forehand were still enough to get the job done. You can't say the same thing about Federer. I'm not sure he'll win two more. I'm not writing him off yet, but I think his chances are much better at the USO than anywhere else. I'm still baffled that he was able to do what he did to Murray there last year (that was an upset IMO). I just don't see him winning Wimbledon again. History is against him. Typically when multiple-Wimbledon champs lose, they do not win again. And, I just do not see him beating Nadal 2.0 on grass.

Johnny Groove
04-29-2009, 03:01 AM
Fed still has a shot at Wimbledon this year (although another heartbreaker to Nadal won't help his cause) and he's still got 5 straight in New York. No way he wins the French and I don't even know if he'll make the final, but he still has a shot to bag the overall slam title.

r2473
04-29-2009, 03:20 AM
I like him so much, hope he will and I think he can:);)

If you are going to post something like this, at least give us a points breakdown / comparison between Fed and the other top 3 players showing when Fed regaining the #1 spot is even possible / what would have to happen.


something interesting at least.

moon language
04-29-2009, 03:28 AM
Doubtful but not impossible under the right circumstances.

MrChopin
04-29-2009, 03:36 AM
Two more slams? Which two slams do you people think he will win? Sure, Sampras bagged a late one, but he had big weapons that were independent from one another. If the movement wasn't great, the serve and forehand were still enough to get the job done. You can't say the same thing about Federer. I'm not sure he'll win two more. I'm not writing him off yet, but I think his chances are much better at the USO than anywhere else. I'm still baffled that he was able to do what he did to Murray there last year (that was an upset IMO). I just don't see him winning Wimbledon again. History is against him. Typically when multiple-Wimbledon champs lose, they do not win again. And, I just do not see him beating Nadal 2.0 on grass.

Sampras won Wimbledon 93-95, then lost. Then he won 97-00. That directly negates what you say about the history of Wimbledon champs and such. On top of that, he has lost a total number of sets per year:

2003: 1
2004: 2
2005: 1
2006: 1 (1 to Nadal)
2007: 3 (2 to Nadal)
2008: 3 (3 to Nadal)

So he has lost 11 sets to (6 to Nadal) in the last 41 matches (133? sets). Sure, Murray is a new potential threat and Fed is no longer '05, but its wishful thinking to close the Wimbledon books on him right now. Should Nadal get knocked out, he immediately becomes the favorite by a decent margin. If he finds any consistency in the next two months, he may still be the favorite against even Nadal.

Wimbledon is probably his best shot for the coming years, especially if the Murray factor somehow convinces them to speed the grass up a bit. USO as his second option makes me fairly confident about his chances to get two more. Making four Finals and one Semi playing as he has since AO '08 is a further confidence boost.

***

I don't think Fed gets #1 back. To do that, he has to win masters series events, and given the recent additions to his life coupled with his more frequent health struggles and the emergence of even more young talent, I don't see him making a big push to keep winning the smaller stuff when he's two slams away and the clock is ticking.

betowiec
04-29-2009, 04:12 AM
no shot

turkjey5
04-29-2009, 04:19 AM
age=27=goodbye

bobbynorwich
04-29-2009, 04:26 AM
And this matters, why?

vamosinator
04-29-2009, 06:06 AM
How many years did Agassi have between his number one periods?

johnny_dhk
04-29-2009, 06:24 AM
No, never. In fact he would never have been world no. 1 if he was not playing in an era when there was no competition except Rafa on clay.

Foxy
04-29-2009, 06:40 AM
Sampras won Wimbledon 93-95, then lost. Then he won 97-00. That directly negates what you say about the history of Wimbledon champs and such. On top of that, he has lost a total number of sets per year:

2003: 1
2004: 2
2005: 1
2006: 1 (1 to Nadal)
2007: 3 (2 to Nadal)
2008: 3 (3 to Nadal)

So he has lost 11 sets to (6 to Nadal) in the last 41 matches (133? sets). Sure, Murray is a new potential threat and Fed is no longer '05, but its wishful thinking to close the Wimbledon books on him right now. Should Nadal get knocked out, he immediately becomes the favorite by a decent margin. If he finds any consistency in the next two months, he may still be the favorite against even Nadal.

Wimbledon is probably his best shot for the coming years, especially if the Murray factor somehow convinces them to speed the grass up a bit. USO as his second option makes me fairly confident about his chances to get two more. Making four Finals and one Semi playing as he has since AO '08 is a further confidence boost.

***

I don't think Fed gets #1 back. To do that, he has to win masters series events, and given the recent additions to his life coupled with his more frequent health struggles and the emergence of even more young talent, I don't see him making a big push to keep winning the smaller stuff when he's two slams away and the clock is ticking.

I like statistics like you but one could never really rely on them in sport. fed hadn't lost a hard court slam final before AO. He even hadn't taken to 5 sets in a hard court slam final. And he had contested in 8 finals. Now look what happened this year. So I read statistics, enjoy them but NEVER rely on them.

JimmyV
04-29-2009, 06:44 AM
No, never. In fact he would never have been world no. 1 if he was not playing in an era when there was no competition except Rafa on clay.

Absolutely, now that the eras have changed and he's finally losing to players besides Rafa in slams he has been exposed for the no talent fraud he is.

Oh no wait, that never happened.

My bad.

Cloudygirl
04-29-2009, 06:48 AM
no but he will win a slam again which I think is more meaningful to him anyway.

JimmyV
04-29-2009, 06:53 AM
I don't think he'll ever get back to number one, but he has plenty of shots to grab a slam or two.

I think if he wanted to get back to number one he'd have to completely re-dedicate himself to tennis, such as getting himself into truly good shape, finding a full time coach who will work with him and a slew of other things, the way Agassi did when he made his comeback. I just don't think he has the motivation off the court that he used.

Ackms421
04-29-2009, 07:05 AM
Sampras won Wimbledon 93-95, then lost. Then he won 97-00. That directly negates what you say about the history of Wimbledon champs and such. On top of that, he has lost a total number of sets per year:

2003: 1
2004: 2
2005: 1
2006: 1 (1 to Nadal)
2007: 3 (2 to Nadal)
2008: 3 (3 to Nadal)

So he has lost 11 sets to (6 to Nadal) in the last 41 matches (133? sets). Sure, Murray is a new potential threat and Fed is no longer '05, but its wishful thinking to close the Wimbledon books on him right now. Should Nadal get knocked out, he immediately becomes the favorite by a decent margin. If he finds any consistency in the next two months, he may still be the favorite against even Nadal.

Wimbledon is probably his best shot for the coming years, especially if the Murray factor somehow convinces them to speed the grass up a bit. USO as his second option makes me fairly confident about his chances to get two more. Making four Finals and one Semi playing as he has since AO '08 is a further confidence boost.

***

I don't think Fed gets #1 back. To do that, he has to win masters series events, and given the recent additions to his life coupled with his more frequent health struggles and the emergence of even more young talent, I don't see him making a big push to keep winning the smaller stuff when he's two slams away and the clock is ticking.

No, there is no way he'll ever be the favorite against Nadal on any surface ever again. He wasn't even the favorite against him at Wimbledon last year. See the past 12 months and the 6-13 h2h. It's wishful thinking to imagine something like Federer being the favorite against Nadal again. The Wimbledon final, AO Final, subsequent water works sealed the deal on any chance he had of regaining "favorite" status. Those days are LONG behind us.

Yes, Sampras did have the Kraciek blip, but he was in his prime when he missed that single year, not on the back end of his career as Federer is. But, I was thinking of Borg and Sampras relative to that statement.

Your stats show a great point. Federer slowly became second-best at Wimbledon. It's likely this year that Nadal will lose less sets than last year and that Federer will lose more (based on the trend). It's unlikely that the trend shown above will be reversed. There's plenty of people that can beat him there now. Actually, there are plenty of people who can beat him on any surface, Nadal being the most-likely. He will need some luck to win one more slam, let alone 2.

And it's really easy to say "if Nadal goes out, bla, bla, bla." I'm sure Federer and his camp have been wishing for that to happen at a great many tournaments over the past several years. Nadal will be in the final. I'm more curious to see if Federer will be able to meet him there again.

gmokb
04-29-2009, 07:07 AM
My heart says yes but my brain says no. I would love for him to regain the #1 position as he really seems lost without it. However, I am more interested in him winning at least another Slam, thus equalling Pete's record. If he would only stop being so egoistical and get himself a coach:sad:

madlove
04-29-2009, 07:21 AM
only if nadal is sidelined for months.. if not, no chance..

Commander Data
04-29-2009, 10:12 AM
It is possible, but not this year. He first has to sort some things out then he may attack once more in the next 2-3 years.

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 10:41 AM
No, never. In fact he would never have been world no. 1 if he was not playing in an era when there was no competition except Rafa on clay.

You think someone with your sig will be taken seriously in this forum?

Now go follow squash.

mr_burns
04-29-2009, 11:19 AM
No will be difficult, but it's not hopeless...but he needs to get stronger at Masters Series then

Sadly his best one is no longer one (Hamburg)

I still think he and NAdal are on the same level on grass...His serve needs to be a little better than nowadays and he wins

Bazooka
04-29-2009, 11:25 AM
You can't be #1 nowadays just by playing slams, no matter how well you play them.

miura
04-29-2009, 11:28 AM
You think someone with your sig will be taken seriously in this forum?

Now go follow squash.
Seconded. Except for the squash part. He should go follow something very unsimilar from any racquet sports since he obviously has lost the ability to see what's what when it comes to handling a racquet. I'd suggest something like Wife-Carrying, I hear it's big in Finland.

Commander Data
04-29-2009, 11:38 AM
Seconded. Except for the squash part. He should go follow something very unsimilar from any racquet sports since he obviously has lost the ability to see what's what when it comes to handling a racquet. I'd suggest something like Wife-Carrying, I hear it's big in Finland.

what about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC5ykhXDDbo&feature=channel

that seems to be rather easy to understand..

Venle
04-29-2009, 11:39 AM
At the moment I'm afraid not. Murray is improving all the time and Rafa plays amazing.

And Roger seems to be complexed about beating them...

Shame :sad:

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 11:41 AM
Seconded. Except for the squash part. He should go follow something very unsimilar from any racquet sports since he obviously has lost the ability to see what's what when it comes to handling a racquet. I'd suggest something like Wife-Carrying, I hear it's big in Finland.

what about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC5ykhXDDbo&feature=channel

that seems to be rather easy to understand..who gets down first wins.

:haha::haha::haha::haha::haha:

miura
04-29-2009, 11:50 AM
what about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC5ykhXDDbo&feature=channel

that seems to be rather easy to understand..
Hahaha! Nice one! That looks so painful, I'd imagine volunteering for that after a couple of beers only to regret it like nothing else in the morning :haha:

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 11:53 AM
You can't be #1 nowadays just by playing slams, no matter how well you play them.

I would like Roger to get back to nr 1 but the slams are ultimately what matters. If he breaks Pete's record i would be satisfied.

Commander Data
04-29-2009, 11:58 AM
Hahaha! Nice one! That looks so painful, I'd imagine volunteering for that after a couple of beers only to regret it like nothing else in the morning :haha:

:haha:

Hingisova
04-29-2009, 01:02 PM
After being on top for 5 years Roger's goal realistically is not to regain the #1 spot..he just wants to beat Sampras' record and maybe one more slam ...that should put him in pretty good company, failing that he's already had a phenomenal career!:worship:

Hingisova:wavey:

danielmom
04-29-2009, 01:28 PM
You can't be #1 nowadays just by playing slams, no matter how well you play them.

Agreed. No way Federer will be #1 again. There is too much compentation now with Nadal, Joker and Murray. I do hope that he may be able to win another couple of slams but it will have to be the USO or AO (he will never win FO or Wimbledon again).

BEBE91
04-29-2009, 03:07 PM
Never :)

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 03:09 PM
After Rome.

Bazooka
04-29-2009, 03:37 PM
I would like Roger to get back to nr 1 but the slams are ultimately what matters. If he breaks Pete's record i would be satisfied.

That's how he thinks, why bother, it would be extremely hard to go above Nadal in points again, with the age, and Murray, and Djokovic and everything. Focusing on slams and getting a few more in the bag seems feasible.

But I disagree, you must fight as much as you can, and win everything! He has been gifted, and must put that talent to work as hard as he can. Regaining #1 from Nadal, even if it's for a week, or even defeating him in a clay AMS, would be very important things.

ORGASMATRON
04-29-2009, 03:43 PM
That's how he thinks, why bother, it would be extremely hard to go above Nadal in points again, with the age, and Murray, and Djokovic and everything. Focusing on slams and getting a few more in the bag seems feasible.

But I disagree, you must fight as much as you can, and win everything! He has been gifted, and must put that talent to work as hard as he can. Regaining #1 from Nadal, even if it's for a week, or even defeating him in a clay AMS, would be very important things.

Of course its important but will be hard. But like you said he has the talent, he just needs the belief back then he can get back to nr 1. If he doesnt its not the end of the world though.

munZe konZa
04-29-2009, 03:49 PM
the mark of a champion is how to get up after the fall and he must rise again to be the greatest champion. Right now he is just someone that was hot for a long time

chowdahead25
06-01-2009, 04:31 AM
Nadal's loss doesn't make it impossible.

1

Nadal, Rafael (ESP)

14960-1820=13140

2

Federer, Roger (SUI)

10470+800=11270


These numbers are if Roger wins Roland Garros this year.


If Roger can win Wimbledon, he will be 12070 points, whereas Rafa would drop to 12340 or so if he loses to him in the final (all depends on grass court tournament in between. Lets assume points hold to same as last year.)

If Rafa loses before Wimbledon final and Federer wins, he becomes number one.

Federer is also defending a very very small amount of points during the Summer hard-court season.

I think Roger will be seeded number one at US Open, by a small margin.

Also, Djokovic basically screwed any chance of regaining number 3 this year. Any points he gains from Wimbledon will just fill in what he just lost at RG.


Thoughts?

fsoica
06-01-2009, 05:04 AM
you can substract Rafa's points from the Olympics, so, if roger wins the double (not probable imho) he will be right there, next to Rafa.

Johnny Groove
06-01-2009, 05:08 AM
He's definitely got a shot at it.

mr_burns
06-01-2009, 05:15 AM
it all becomes closer...

Federere benefits even more from Murrays and Djokers inability to perfom good at every slam..so no 2 was nver in danger:-)

He should get No 1 (assuming a win in RG) durng the HC season, but before the Us Open

Who would have thought that after Melbourne

doublebackhand
06-01-2009, 05:38 AM
funny how one match changes the projection so much for the rest of the year??

lets take it one day at a time for now.

ballbasher101
06-01-2009, 05:44 AM
At this moment I get the feeling that Roger mostly wants to win the French and Wimbledon and is not really that concerned with getting the number 1 spot back. Getting to number one is a possibility but the majors are the main goal, success in the majors does go hand in hand with a good ranking.

FedFan_2007
06-01-2009, 05:47 AM
Another jinxing thread.

finishingmove
06-01-2009, 05:56 AM
These numbers are if Roger wins Roland Garros this year.

rofl

MrChopin
06-01-2009, 06:17 AM
He will do it by the end of RG. If not, he is done.

BlueSwan
06-01-2009, 06:18 AM
IF Roger wins RG, then I agree that he's got a good shot at getting #1 back, but that is a mighty big if. I don't think Roger is a lock for RG at all, even though he is the favourite with Nadal and Djokovic gone.

Certinfy
06-01-2009, 06:42 AM
If Fed wins RG... His confidence will probz be very high, so he'll go into Wimby confident.

So yh i think he has a great chance.

Doggy
06-01-2009, 07:17 AM
I think Federer has a good chance of winning French Open and Wimbledon this year. I will sleep with anyone if he doesn't

Audacity
06-01-2009, 07:20 AM
No, probably not. Nadal will bounce back.

raymondtehcc
06-01-2009, 07:36 AM
All possibilities will depends on the following ATP matches.
Roger Federer will get full support from his fans including me to regain back the World No 1 throne back this year!

marcRD
06-01-2009, 07:46 AM
Nadal has 4410 points to defend before USOPEN. Lets say he gets to SF in Queens and Wimbledon, SF in Montreal and QF in Cincinatti. He gets 1350 points and loses +3000 points.

Roger on the other hand has around 1700 points to defend, if he wins Wimbledon+Halle, SF in Montreal and wins Cincinatti and he gets 3610 points and goes almost +2000 points.

Do the math, even if things go better for Nadal he cant keep the nr1 position if Federer wins RG, too much points to defend.

TennisViewer531
06-01-2009, 07:51 AM
Yes, Roger can regain the no. 1 ranking this year... who knows we'll see Nadal losing in fourth round in the next two Slams.

Black Adam
06-01-2009, 08:27 AM
Murray gets to number 2 by making final i believe.

BlueSwan
06-01-2009, 10:16 AM
Yeah, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. If Federer loses today or in the next round, he might very well lose his #2 ranking to Murray after RG instead of chasing for #1.

MacTheKnife
06-01-2009, 10:22 AM
Well he's got decent shot at it that's for sure.

Jimnik
06-01-2009, 01:56 PM
Nah, not enough consistency at the small events. I actually think Murray has a decent shot.

Arkulari
06-01-2009, 02:00 PM
come on...

http://themaltachronicle.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bandwagon.jpg

Goldenoldie
06-01-2009, 02:22 PM
If Federer continues to play as badly as today he will not even reach the RG final, let alone win it. I think he is more likely to drop to #3 than regain #1, at least in the short term.

bizzle
06-01-2009, 02:33 PM
He could get it back for a few months, but I doubt he will finish the year in the top 2 to be honest.

Clydey
06-01-2009, 03:37 PM
it all becomes closer...

Federere benefits even more from Murrays and Djokers inability to perfom good at every slam..so no 2 was nver in danger:-)

He should get No 1 (assuming a win in RG) durng the HC season, but before the Us Open

Who would have thought that after Melbourne

Number 2 still is in danger. Federer has Halle points dropping, not to mention the ground Murray has already made up at the French. His best hope to hold onto number 2 is if Gonzo beats Murray, since Andy has a lot of points to gain at Wimbledon.

There's a highly unlikely scenario, but one that demonstrates how tight the situation is. Murray would go to number 1 if he won RG and Wimbly.

Clydey
06-01-2009, 03:40 PM
Murray gets to number 2 by making final i believe.

Needs to go further than Fed to get to number 2. Had Fed lost today, Murray would have needed to beat Gonzo. There's 200 points between them, but Murray has a lot to gain at Queens and Wimbledon.

auwkeung
06-01-2009, 03:41 PM
If he goes on and win RG, he will be very confident going into Wimbledon.
And I don't think Rafa could repeat last year performance in Wimbledon...so he's got a good chance...

Harmless
06-01-2009, 03:49 PM
Funny poll numbers.
I very clearly remember a poll maybe a little over a month ago asking if Roger will EVER (not just this year) regain the No1 position.
The YES option had about 6 votes. :hatoff:



edit: Found the thread. "Yes, of course" got three more votes in the meantime, compared to 52 for "Never". :worship:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=14267 (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=142697&highlight=will+federer+ever+no+1+again)

freeandlonely
06-01-2009, 04:03 PM
Well, much people talk about Murray.
So far, Murray got past QF only one time in any GS.
And he has more than enough points to defend in bottom season.(And Madrid 1000 cost)
We will see what is Murray/Mugray made of in these weeks.
I won't be surprised if he ended No.4 this year.

Clydey
06-01-2009, 04:42 PM
Well, much people talk about Murray.
So far, Murray got past QF only one time in any GS.
And he has more than enough points to defend in bottom season.(And Madrid 1000 cost)
We will see what is Murray/Mugray made of in these weeks.
I won't be surprised if he ended No.4 this year.

Murray has only played in 13 slams in his whole career. People seem to forget that he basically missed 3 out of 4 slams in 2007. That held back his progress considerably.

JediFed
06-01-2009, 04:47 PM
Number 2 still is in danger. Federer has Halle points dropping, not to mention the ground Murray has already made up at the French. His best hope to hold onto number 2 is if Gonzo beats Murray, since Andy has a lot of points to gain at Wimbledon.


Why is it unlikely for Gonzo to beat Murray? Given Gonzo's form, the court style, (dry clay), and the fact that this is a 5 setter (and not 3), all favour Gonzo.

Clydey
06-01-2009, 04:50 PM
Why is it unlikely for Gonzo to beat Murray? Given Gonzo's form, the court style, (dry clay), and the fact that this is a 5 setter (and not 3), all favour Gonzo.

I didn't say it was unlikely that Gonzo will beat Murray. It's very likely, actually.

Not sure what form you're referring to, though. Murray has had a better clay season than Gonzo. He's also beaten tougher opponents so far in the tournament. Gonzo has beaten 2 WCs and a qualifier, I believe. It's easy to post lop-sided scores against that kind of opposition.

sawan66278
06-01-2009, 04:51 PM
If the world doesn't want to face an explosion...of Federer's head from an overinflated ego...I pray "no".

Lugburz
06-01-2009, 04:51 PM
Hopefully,yes!

yuiwer
06-01-2009, 04:52 PM
Obviously

biological
06-01-2009, 05:05 PM
I really hope and think yes

Igaarg
06-01-2009, 05:09 PM
I really donīt care about N1 anymore. I want him to win more slams.

Crazy Girl
06-01-2009, 05:14 PM
I really hope and think yesSophie!! Mon amour!! Also I really hope...but I don't think.

However, you know, I love him anyway!!

1°- 2°- 3°....:worship::worship::worship:
Rrrrrrrrroooooooooggggggggggeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrr!!!

Crazy Girl
06-01-2009, 05:17 PM
I really donīt care about N1 anymore. I want him to win more slams.:worship::worship::worship:

YOU'RE THE HISTORY!!!!!!!! ROGER!!!!

:woohoo::woohoo::yippee::yippee::woohoo::woohoo:

HattonWBA
06-01-2009, 06:18 PM
I doubt it still although it gives him a better chance, he still has lots of work to do in the FO

MatchFederer
06-01-2009, 06:18 PM
Well given the numbers in the opening post then if Federer wins RG there is a fair chance he could regain the number one position. I don't think he will though (but I want him to).

Sunset of Age
06-01-2009, 07:11 PM
Feds barely managed to reach the QF of RG and people are already speculating on him getting back the #1 position??? :haha:

Might just be me, but I think the chances of him falling back to #3 are some 99% bigger... even this week.
Pathetic thread.

freeandlonely
06-01-2009, 08:23 PM
Murray has only played in 13 slams in his whole career. People seem to forget that he basically missed 3 out of 4 slams in 2007. That held back his progress considerably.

I know. So I won't write him off. I wait and see. Especially these coming weeks.

Kuhne
06-06-2009, 06:38 PM
Let's say he wins the french, it seems #1 is now a possibility again, Rafa is not playing queens, not sure how that affects his points in there, do they take them away completly?

kobulingam
06-06-2009, 06:40 PM
Roger won't play Halle after such a tough FO, so Rafa's Queen's withdrawal evens out.

pica_pica
06-06-2009, 06:41 PM
Roger won't play Halle after such a tough FO, so Rafa's Queen's withdrawal evens out.
Well, he's in the Halle draw :shrug: so I suppose he'll play?

federernadalfan
06-06-2009, 06:43 PM
probably roger needs to win halle and wimbly, rafa skips wimbledon

feuselino
06-06-2009, 06:49 PM
In that scenario (Roger wins FO, Halle, Wimbledon) Nadal has to make the SF at Wimbledon at least I think... but Roger has very little to defend after Wimbledon up to the US Open, so if indeed he wins the FO and Wimbledon, he has a good shot again (and he should have, because then he would be the reigning champ at three of the four majors)

chowdahead25
06-06-2009, 06:55 PM
Ok. Right now Rafa is at 14960.
Roger is at 10470.

If Roger wins tomorrow, the new point totals will be:
Rafa: 13140
Roger: 11270.

If Roger defends Halle and we subtract Rafa's points, he is now at:
Rafa: 12890
Roger: 11270

Then, if Rafa missed Wimbedon and Roger loses in the Semis, it looks like this...
Rafa: 10890
Roger: 10870

Roger loses in final:
Rafa: 10890
Roger: 11270

Roger Wins Wimbledon:
Rafa: 10890
Roger: 12070


Whoa.


I hope this helps.
Obviously, if Rafa plays Wimbedon, this all changes. I think Roger will get it back by the US open.

Think all of this math is correct and what not.

:wavey:

Mint Chip
06-06-2009, 07:21 PM
Federer will only become #1 if he plays like he did in 2004-early 2007. He can get to number 1 if he becomes more consistant and not be a mental midget when playing the Nadal and co.

LEGENDOFTENNIS
06-06-2009, 07:41 PM
Dno Mint Chip, i think he held up pretty well when he last played Nadal. He can do it, but i think he only brings it to Slams nowadays.

Commander Data
06-06-2009, 07:51 PM
i think if he wins tomorrow that confidence boost will carry him all the way to no 1 again within this year. If he loses he think he will keep on struggling and not reach it this year.

JediFed
06-06-2009, 08:14 PM
The earliest Federer can regain number one is if he wins tomorrow, wins Halle and makes the semifinal of Wimbledon, and Nadal withdraws.

Roger: 10470
Nadal: 14960

After the French, assuming Federer wins:

Nadal -1700
Roger +600

Roger = 11070
Nadal = 13260

After Halle/Queens

Nadal -450

Roger = 11070
Nadal = 12810

Nadal has a lead of 1740.

If Roger wins Wimbledon he is +600

Nadal has to make at least the SF to keep number one.

If Roger wins Wimbledon and Nadal loses in the semifinal, he keeps number one by 40 points.

If Nadal withdraws, Roger must reach the Semifinals to get number one.

Then, with a lead of 40 points, Nadal will lose 800 for the Olympics, defends a win in Canada, and a SF in Cincinnati and a SF at the USO.

Roger defends a 2nd and a 3rd round. Roger has virtually 0 points.

My prediction is that Roger will take number one either in Wimbledon or in Canada, assuming both remain in their current form.

Xristos
06-06-2009, 08:20 PM
He will be back at number 1 in time for the US Open.

JediFed
06-06-2009, 08:27 PM
The other thing is if Roger retakes it at Wimbledon, he won't relinquish it until the French rolls around in 2010. He'll be very close to Pete's record by then.

HKz
06-06-2009, 08:28 PM
Rafalafa has already pulled out of Queens so there goes Roland Garros and his Queens win from last year out of his points. I don't see anyone giving Roger an enourmously tough time on grass this year even Murray because seriously, it has been a cakewalk for Roger on grass at both Halle (except for 2005) and Wimbledon. And I think Nadal has his hands full especially now since his aura of invicibility has basically worn off totally, not to mention I think this phase of tall players will start to come dominate Nadal more often with Murray, Del Potro, Soderling, etc. So honestly, while Rafalafa does have some pressure off with his Roland Garros domination out of the picture, he has gained a lot more pressure to prove himself and show that he actually is number one, and honestly, Roger will regain the number one ranking by winning Wimbledon. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Rafalafa kept the number one ranking till maybe even USO, but again Roger has virtually no points, like he did at Indian Wells/Miami last year which allowed him to keep his number one ranking, so only way is up.

nadal il mito
06-06-2009, 08:35 PM
nadal will win wimbledon and this thread will burn out.

l_mac
06-06-2009, 08:38 PM
The earliest Federer can regain number one is if he wins tomorrow, wins Halle and makes the semifinal of Wimbledon, and Nadal withdraws.

Roger: 10470
Nadal: 14960

After the French, assuming Federer wins:

Nadal -1700
Roger +600

Roger = 11070
Nadal = 13260

Rafa lost 1820 points for losing in RG. His points are 13140.

After Halle/Queens

Nadal -450

Roger = 11070
Nadal = 12810

Nadal has a lead of 1740.

Roger will lose points at Halle regardless. He is defending 450 and can only earn 250. So he will be at 10870, even if he wins.

prima donna
06-06-2009, 08:41 PM
Why can't you people hold your horses until after the final ?

JediFed
06-06-2009, 08:41 PM
Aah, ok.

So that adds another 80 points.

Gives him a lead of 1820 going into Wimbly.

Matt01
06-06-2009, 08:45 PM
He will be back at number 1 in time for the US Open.


...to lose #1 after that tournament :devil:

romaine
06-06-2009, 08:57 PM
I personally hope Federer will regain number one if he succeeds tomorrow I think there is almost no doubt he will. Losing tomorrow might get him seriously off track, so hopefully, it aint't happening.

Crazy Girl
06-06-2009, 09:02 PM
:p:p:p Who will live, will see.:p:p:p

DrJules
06-06-2009, 09:02 PM
Depends on the condition of Nadal's knee this year.

MacTheKnife
06-06-2009, 09:14 PM
I would wager a guess that if this poll started over now, knowing what we do, the results would look a lot different.

prima donna
06-06-2009, 09:17 PM
I would wager a guess that if this poll started over now, knowing what we do, the results would look a lot different.
You don't say! Hindsight is 20/20, my friend.

finishingmove
06-06-2009, 09:25 PM
he'll drop to 6 behind roddick and del pony

romaine
06-06-2009, 09:37 PM
he'll drop to 6 behind roddick and del pony

I think it is more likely that Oscar Hernandez wins the Grand Slam in 2010 than Federer being ranked behing Roddick :)

roberthenman
06-06-2009, 11:51 PM
no, no and not :haha:

Laba
06-07-2009, 01:33 AM
Definitely. I say in time for the US Open if Nadal plays Wimbledon, and right after Wimbledon if he doesn't.

Sunset of Age
06-07-2009, 01:39 AM
No.

Roger has had his time of being #1, if he never regains it, it won't lessen anything of his achievements. I just hope he'll stick around and continue to please all tennis fans with his fantastic game for quite a few more years to come. :yeah:

Lin Lin
06-07-2009, 01:40 AM
He now has a very good chance;)

prima donna
06-07-2009, 01:56 AM
He now has a very good chance;)
Really ? What's changed since two weeks ago ? How many Grand Slams has he added to his name since then ? Sigh -- this sort of thing is so premature.

MacTheKnife
06-07-2009, 02:08 AM
Well it could certainly get tight if Nadal also misses Wimby, and Fed at least makes the semis or finals. Will make for very interesting summer if Nadal's knee doesn't hold up.

Arkulari
06-07-2009, 02:22 AM
Rafa HAS to play Wimbledon, his knee won't hold up good on the fall HC season and has a lot of points to defend :shrug:
Either way, my boys are the top dogs on this game :rocker:

MrChopin
06-07-2009, 02:26 AM
I think so, but tomorrow is the key step. Fed must win tomorrow if '09 is to go well. If he wins tomorrow, I see both of them doing very well at Wimbledon, so I think those points are a wash. Then I think Fed gets it between Cincy and the US Open no matter what Nadal does. Even if he were to crash out in the SF like he has in almost every TMS he's been prepared for this year, I think he can gain too many while Nadal has too many points to defend. And even if he only gets close, he can pick up a ton of points at an MM if he really wants #1 back.

out_here_grindin
06-07-2009, 02:27 AM
Really ? What's changed since two weeks ago ? How many Grand Slams has he added to his name since then ? Sigh -- this sort of thing is so premature.

Nadal has most in RG and lost many points, federer is on the verge of winning the French. Nadal is talking knee problems...

Art&Soul
06-07-2009, 02:34 AM
Yes and its the best thing for tennis :)

prima donna
06-07-2009, 02:35 AM
Nadal has most in RG and lost many points, federer is on the verge of winning the French. Nadal is talking knee problems...
What does #1 mean if Roger loses tomorrow ? Nothing.

Arkulari
06-07-2009, 02:44 AM
at this point, the ranking is the less important thing, Roger is making the history of tennis, all he needs to do now is focus on slams :shrug:

TennisViewer531
06-07-2009, 04:23 AM
Of course, he can become number one again.

Yves.
06-07-2009, 07:19 AM
If Nadal's injury is a problem at Wimbledon. Then yes. Roger should win Halle and Wimbledon. Nadal only loses points then. If he continues that spirit, No. 1 should be reachable.

madmax
06-07-2009, 09:51 AM
no problem, he is officially gonna be Nr.1 after Wimby if Nadal is not playing...GOAT is on his way for slams Nr.14 and 15 and restored Numero Uno ranking. Last year was just a fluke

Certinfy
06-07-2009, 09:56 AM
Hopefully i don't like Nadal as Number 1.

peribsen
06-07-2009, 12:52 PM
Nadal has always said that Roger is the most complete player in the circuit, so his return to nr 1is always a possibility. I always thought it was too early for Roger's funeral. Another issue is whether he is past his prime, meaning I donīt expect him to lord it over the tour like a few years back, but I do think he may have a few more GS in his magazine.

I really think many people mix up several different concepts: being the best (the most complete all around active player), being nr 1 (having the best results in the past calendar year) and being GOAT (a rather childish concept if you ask me, since you canīt easily compare player's from different generations and there isnīt even an unambiguous way to measure comparative greatness: are Sampras' 14 GS on 3 GS a bigger achievement than Laver's 11 on all 4? Donīt Laver's two calendar year GS prove he lorded over the field far more than Sampras ever did?).

You can be the best without being nr1, and arguably even GOAT, if you define GOAT by the number of GS (imagine a player who wins loads of GS on all types of courts over more than a decade, albeit "only" 1-2 each year; he may never be nr1, while his career may overlap the reigns of players who, at a given moment, are better than him).

Federer1
06-07-2009, 03:58 PM
just wondering

El Legenda
06-07-2009, 04:00 PM
depends what Nadal doesnt win. like the next Grand Slam and Roger defends the USO

NadalSharapova
06-07-2009, 04:00 PM
Depends on how long Nadal is injured for.

scarecrows
06-07-2009, 04:00 PM
Some guy made the calculation 2 days ago

Now i think he needs to win halle and wimbledon and Nadal not to make Wimby final

The Oracle
06-20-2009, 12:42 AM
I voted yes.....just for the record.......

I do think it is very much likely.

DrJules
07-06-2009, 10:52 PM
55% picked the correct answer.