Wimbledon 2008 : Anticipation & Speculation [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Wimbledon 2008 : Anticipation & Speculation

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Clay Death
06-05-2008, 08:53 PM
Wimbledon 2008 is almost here. People are anxious to see how it will play out this year. Roger Federer will likely go in with just one small title (Esotril) to his name in 7 months. There is a new challenger on the horizon who has sworn never to lose to Fed again on any surface. He will try to announce his arrival again at Wimbledon for he truly has become a legitimate all surface threat.

Fed has had a 5 year stranglehold on Wimbledon as he has won 5 titles in a row. This year he will get a chance to see if he can break Borg`s record by getting 6 in a row. Lot of history is at stake. Will there be a new Wimbledon champion in 2008? Does Djokovic have the goods to dethrone the mighty Fed at Wimbledon and signal the end of his domination of the sport?

Are there any other contenders? How about Roddick and Nadal? I personally believe that Fed is more vulnerable this year than at any time in the past. I feel that the pressure on him is simply immense this year and it will take its toll on him at Wimby. This means that one of the others may end up with the prestigious Wimby crown. I believe that Djokovic or Nadal may end up the stealing the spotlight from Fed at Wimby in 2008?

Thoughts? Do you believe that Fed is vulnerable this year at Wimby? If so, who has the best chance to take home the Wimby crown? Many believe that Wimby is Fed`s last stand. If he fails here, he is likely to fail again at the U.S. Open. It could signal the end of his domination of the sport.

check out this article i found on espn.com:

Djokovic carries his aspirations on his sleeve
By Bonnie D. Ford
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: June 5, 2008, 12:06 PM ET
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Peter Parks/Getty Images

Novak Djokovic has no trepidation standing toe-to-toe with the world's top two players -- as he proved earlier this year against Roger Federer at the Australian Open.


PARIS -- Novak Djokovic has his dream scenario at last -- the chance to play both men ranked ahead of him in a Grand Slam and tangibly reshuffle a deck that has remained undisturbed for almost three years now.


Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in back-to-back matches last year in Montreal, but that was with hard court under his sneakers and far less at stake. He can take over the No. 2 spot if he upsets Nadal in Friday's semifinal, where Djokovic is a decided underdog, although we suspect he's unlikely to curl into the fetal position in the manner of Nadal's previous two opponents.

It's appropriate to say "at last" in this context because Djokovic has been hungering for this opportunity since he was a kid and turned out to be one of those rare youngsters whose childhood dreams are rooted in unerring instinct.

Whatever happens at Roland Garros on Friday and over the weekend, we know that Djokovic can compete with Federer and Nadal on the court. Most recently, Djokovic tested Nadal severely in the Hamburg semifinals, boring deep into his service games in a match where the Spaniard's ranking also was on the line. Nadal called the three-set win one of the best of his career.

It may be nearly as interesting to watch these three players divide the more subjective turf outside the neat white rectangles of their workplace. If Federer represents elegance and sustained excellence, and Nadal represents boundless energy and innocent charm, is there room for Djokovic in the hearts and minds of the fans who populate Planet Tennis?

"This is an interesting year for him, a transition year, and those are fun to watch as an outsider," two-time French Open winner Jim Courier said in early May. "As an outsider who's been on the inside and gone through it, I'm always interested to see the psychology of the transition. He's one of the brighter tennis players I've met for his age."

Nadal arrived at Roland Garros as an endearing 18-going-on-19-year-old who didn't know what he didn't know, and never lost again. Federer bloomed a bit later, but once established as a champion, set such a high standard that he could be regally gracious about his would-be opponents and complimentary about himself without seeming insufferable.

Djokovic is different. He is The Ambitious One, the one who wears his aspirations like a sponsor's patch on his sleeve. He's the guy who moved his cot into the room where Federer and Nadal were amiably crashed out on bunk beds and started talking, keeping them from sleeping.

The 21-year-old Serb has a youthful magnetism comparable to Nadal's, combined with the worldly, multi-lingual cachet of Federer. The similarities end there. Djokovic has a different kind of backstory, coming from a disadvantaged nation whose infrastructure was so perilous that his parents sent him to Germany to train and looked into having him compete for two other countries, Italy and Great Britain.

His family is more visible than the Federer or Nadal clans have been (although Nadal's uncle Toni is, of course, his longtime coach). The fierce support of Djokovic's mother and father, their matching shirts and crisp comments about their oldest son's talent and intentions have drawn predictable push-back from Federer and Nadal partisans who were content to see the sport's world order stay put.

From here, the we've-got-your-back approach seems natural given the obstacle course this family navigated, and it also offers insight into why Djokovic has come so far in the last two seasons. He had to have attitude if he wanted to break through the concrete ceiling the other two men presented. For him, saying was believing before seeing was believing.

The sporting world generally values edge, but Nadal and Federer have occasionally expressed displeasure with Djokovic's version of it, especially before he'd joined the ranks of Slam winners. Federer has on occasion allowed a certain tone to seep into his voice when asked about Djokovic, while Nadal made it known he wasn't crazy about Djokovic's exaggerated pants-tugging imitation of him on live television at the U.S. Open.

Djokovic backed up his brashness by capturing the Australian Open title this season. Some would attach an asterisk because Federer, whom Djokovic beat in the semifinals, was sapped by mononucleosis that hadn't yet been diagnosed. But the point is that virus or no virus, it took a player immune to intimidation to get the job done, and that quality helped Djokovic as much as his precise serving or his agility.

The real footnote to that win was Djokovic's obvious discomfort -- echoed in his father's angry face -- when the crowd announced early and often that it was behind his opponent.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played a mystically perfect match against Nadal and streaked into the final like a comet that at least temporarily blots out other constellations.



It was the first time Djokovic had ever been a favorite in that kind of match. He didn't handle it entirely gracefully. "He took the crowd on, which is not the smart play if you're trying to endear yourself to them," Courier said.


Asked Tuesday whether he had learned anything from that experience, Djokovic said no. But he also admitted he's not the kind of player who feeds off hostility.

"It's really important if you can get the crowd behind you to support you," he said. "You know, you get motivated, you get a lot of positive energy, and you kind of play easier, you know.

[+] EnlargeRomeo Gacad/AFP/Getty Images

Novak Djokovic has had a strong supporting cast through the years.
"If you have a crowd against you, it's a totally different situation. Then you're fighting against the crowd and your opponent. This can put you in a really tricky position. That's why sometimes maybe during the match, you know, if I see the crowd is against me I react crazy, but, you know, it's all part of the sport."

Last year at this time, Djokovic was a darling of the tennis world after sweeping to the French Open semis with countrywomen Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic -- new blood for a sport that, while not exactly anemic, still can use regular transfusions of personality.

Then Djokovic learned, like all young stars, the difference between a honeymoon and a committed relationship where fans are concerned. His withdrawals from big matches have drawn heavy criticism -- unjustified, he insisted recently, in the case of his semifinal match against Federer in Monte Carlo, since he was later found to have had strep throat.

It would be a shame if people cast Djokovic as the guy in the black hat simply because they think the screenplay of the sport demands it. A rivalry shouldn't necessarily lead to tribal strife. "He doesn't seem to me like he would be a good bad guy," Courier said. "He's far too likeable, he likes the spotlight, he likes joking around."

Benito Perez, Djokovic's media and marketing liaison, has booked Djokovic on Jay Leno and on the Italian show that is a "Tonight" equivalent with confidence that he'd be a natural talk-show guest. He's had Djokovic do photo shoots for GQ and Men's Vogue because the tall, slender Djokovic is a natural clothes horse. Perez has high hopes of broadening Djokovic's appeal in the coming months and years. But ultimately, Perez said, Djokovic's image will rest on his ability to get results and nothing else. It's mostly his own fault for setting the bar so high so soon.

Friday presents an interesting dilemma for Perez, who also handles Nadal's public relations. He'll prowl around the interior of the stadium watching the semifinal on television rather than from either player's box.

Afterwards, by his own set of rules, Perez will dine with the loser. "That's always what I do," he said. "The loser needs more support. Everyone wants to be with the winner."

That makes sense. And the fact that there are three men vying for the public's affection as well as prize money, points and stature should only make fans feel in demand, and grateful.



Bonnie D. Ford covers tennis and Olympic sports for ESPN.com. She can be reached at bonniedford@aol.com.

KitinovRules
06-05-2008, 08:55 PM
Wimbledon 2008 is almost here. People are anxious to see how it will play out this year. Roger Federer will likely go in with just one small title (Esotril) to his name in 7 months. There is a new challenger on the horizon who has sworn never to lose to Fed again on any surface. He will try to announce his arrival again at Wimbledon for he truly has become a legitimate all surface threat.


He already lost in Monte Carlo, after making that statement.
And Kevin Anderson could be in the MD, that is a problem for the Faker :)

scarecrows
06-05-2008, 08:58 PM
I think Federer has a fat chance to go with 2 titles in Wimbledon and no, one of them wont be RG ;)

He's playing better than at the start of the season and if he keeps this form he can only lose the 6th title there

scoobs
06-05-2008, 08:58 PM
Already?

I still have clay in my socks.

Montego
06-05-2008, 09:00 PM
Fed is still the biggest fav to win Wimbledon, no doubt. Novak and Roddick come second ex aequo in my opinion. Roddick's game is perfect for grass and I don't think he has any fear. His win over Fed in Miami only boosted his confidence. Faker is still quite unexperienced on this surface, but definitely he is a contender, as he can mix his defensive and offensive skills very well and adapt it to the conditions. He also has winning mentality and won't shit his pants at 4-4 in 5th set. Nadal comes 4th imo and there are always guys like Soderling and Ancic who have a lot to prove and could be dark horses.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:01 PM
I think Federer has a fat chance to go with 2 titles in Wimbledon and no, one of them wont be RG ;)

He's playing better than at the start of the season and if he keeps this form he can only lose the 6th title there


check original post. i added an interesting article that i found on espn.com.

this Djokovic is not going to go away. he wants Fed`s head. he could get it at Wimby and then again at the U.S. Open. I think his best possible chance is on hard courts.

Jaap
06-05-2008, 09:02 PM
C.Berlocq should clinch it.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:04 PM
Already?

I still have clay in my socks.

too funny. people are smelling grass already also. i am so fired up.

i believe that we will be treated to a hard fought Nadal vs Djokovic semifinal tomorrow. Fed is pretty much going to destroy Monfils.

and in the final, Nadal will demolish Fed
in straight sets this time. its in the bag. trust me on this.

lets get on with Wimbledon and the warm-up events. I think Fed will skip the warm-up again this year. It worked for him last year so he might try it again.

KitinovRules
06-05-2008, 09:06 PM
check original post. i added an interesting article that i found on espn.com.

this Djokovic is not going to go away. he wants Fed`s head. he could get it at Wimby and then again at the U.S. Open. I think his best possible chance is on hard courts.
The Faker will draw Ancic in the first round. :)

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:08 PM
Fed is still the biggest fav to win Wimbledon, no doubt. Novak and Roddick come second ex aequo in my opinion. Roddick's game is perfect for grass and I don't think he has any fear. His win over Fed in Miami only boosted his confidence. Faker is still quite unexperienced on this surface, but definitely he is a contender, as he can mix his defensive and offensive skills very well and adapt it to the conditions. He also has winning mentality and won't shit his pants at 4-4 in 5th set. Nadal comes 4th imo and there are always guys like Soderling and Ancic who have a lot to prove and could be dark horses.


i agree. Roddick and Ancic could go deep. I am not so sure about Soderling.

Montego
06-05-2008, 09:10 PM
i agree. Roddick and Ancic could go deep. I am not so sure about Soderling.

Soderling with a good draw could reach quarters with serve alone. Unfortunately he is a loser.

Eden
06-05-2008, 09:14 PM
I think Fed will skip the warm-up again this year. It worked for him last year so he might try it again.

Roger has a 3 years contract with Halle. He recently mentioned again the reasons why he cancelled the tournament the last year and that he is looking forward to play there this time again.

CD, why don't you just open a thread for the US Open too? I mean, we are only 3 months away from it and I'm sure there is a lot to discuss already ;)

~*BGT*~
06-05-2008, 09:22 PM
i agree. Roddick and Ancic could go deep. I am not so sure about Soderling.

The problem with Andy is that he has arrived in London today -- and has just begun serving in the past few days.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:33 PM
The problem with Andy is that he has arrived in London today -- and has just begun serving in the past few days.


how is his progress going? Is he expected to defend his title at Queens? we are just 4 days away/removed from Queens now.

~*BGT*~
06-05-2008, 09:36 PM
how is his progress going? Is he expected to defend his title at Queens? we are just 4 days away/removed from Queens now.

Djokovic, Nadal, Nalbandian, Gasquet, Mahut, Verdasco, and he are all gonna be there. He's been training off court -- weights and cardio. He's been hitting and just started serving. Look at his thread on T4Y. I've got all his updates there. :)

Stensland
06-05-2008, 09:36 PM
i don't like grass. usually it favors guys with a non-tennis approach, like karlovic and ivanisevic, which is something i hate. plus it very often takes place during a time where i have no time to watch tennis anyways because of the world cup or european cup.

so, the tennis sucks anyways (although it has gotten better over the years due to the slowing down of the surface) and the time sucks too. bad mix.

rofe
06-05-2008, 09:38 PM
Roger has a 3 years contract with Halle. He recently mentioned again the reasons why he cancelled the tournament the last year and that he is looking forward to play there this time again.

CD, why don't you just open a thread for the US Open too? I mean, we are only 3 months away from it and I'm sure there is a lot to discuss already ;)

That is pointless since Novak is a lock to win the US Open.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:44 PM
i don't like grass. usually it favors guys with a non-tennis approach, like karlovic and ivanisevic, which is something i hate. plus it very often takes place during a time where i have no time to watch tennis anyways because of the world cup or european cup.

so, the tennis sucks anyways (although it has gotten better over the years due to the slowing down of the surface) and the time sucks too. bad mix.


slower surface has made it more interesting. i am basically fired up to see if somebody other than Fed can take this crown. 5 in a row is enough.

what i dont like about Wimby is the absence of a retractable roof. the rain last year was just unbearable. and these morons (wimby organizers) refuse to leave the stone ages. why not have a sunday start. and they should have had a retractable roof there 20 years ago.

~*BGT*~
06-05-2008, 09:47 PM
The roof is coming next year

anon57
06-05-2008, 09:47 PM
slower surface has made it more interesting. i am basically fired up to see if somebody other than Fed can take this crown. 5 in a row is enough.

what i dont like about Wimby is the absence of a retractable roof. the rain last year was just unbearable. and these morons (wimby organizers) refuse to leave the stone ages. why not have a sunday start. and they should have had a retractable roof there 20 years ago.
The Wimbledon organizers are working on a retractable roof, and if I'm not mistaken it should be in place next year. As for the sunday start, RG has only introduced that three years ago and the AO & USO don't have it either I think so no reason for Wimbledon to have either. What the Wimbledon organizers should consider is playing the middle sunday but they don't seem ready to let go of that tradition yet:shrug:.

Stensland
06-05-2008, 09:49 PM
The roof is coming next year

it is? i thought it was something like 2012?

groundstroke
06-05-2008, 09:51 PM
Federer will win it again.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:56 PM
The Wimbledon organizers are working on a retractable roof, and if I'm not mistaken it should be in place next year. As for the sunday start, RG has only introduced that three years ago and the AO & USO don't have it either I think so no reason for Wimbledon to have either. What the Wimbledon organizers should consider is playing the middle sunday but they don't seem ready to let go of that tradition yet:shrug:.

well with all the rain delays, it may be a good idea to have a sunday start and have the middle sunday open. it will offer some flexibility. players are forced to go through hell as a result of their ridiculous infatuation with tradition.

it also hurts the fans and the sponsors.

~*BGT*~
06-05-2008, 09:58 PM
it is? i thought it was something like 2012?

Some LTA official was on French Open Tonight yesterday and he said the new roof would be working next year.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:59 PM
Some LTA official was on French Open Tonight yesterday and he said the new roof would be working next year.


thanks bgt. any idea if the French are working on a retractable roof also? is it in the planning stages at least?

Corey Feldman
06-05-2008, 10:01 PM
No doubt Fed's half will get Nole, Roddick, Murray, Nalbandian, Karlo.. those types

and Nadal's half will be the Ferrer, Davydenko, Monaco, Almagro types

~*BGT*~
06-05-2008, 10:04 PM
No doubt Fed's half will get Nole, Roddick, Murray, Nalbandian, Karlo.. those types

and Nadal's half will be the Ferrer, Davydenko, Monaco, Almagro types

So my Andy is finally a threat to Fed at Wimbledon? ;)

pascal'rG
06-05-2008, 10:05 PM
I think there could be some suprise here with some new contenders....

... maybe Gasquet and Tsonga can be dangerous and why not Gulbis, ancic and Llodra ??

We have to see the first tournaments on grass to have some clues.

PiggyGotRoasted
06-05-2008, 10:08 PM
Davydenko got to the 3rd round last year right?
I would expect him to better that atleast this year with his improved serve and volleys.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 10:11 PM
No doubt Fed's half will get Nole, Roddick, Murray, Nalbandian, Karlo.. those types

and Nadal's half will be the Ferrer, Davydenko, Monaco, Almagro types


not so sure about that Escude. if its a slam, you can bet that Nole will be in Clay Monster`s 1/2. must be a bloody conspiracy.

he was in Nadal`s 1/2 at last year`s U.S.Open, Wimby, and the French Open.

Corey Feldman
06-05-2008, 10:20 PM
So my Andy is finally a threat to Fed at Wimbledon? ;)BGT, Anyone is a threat to MonoFed08


not so sure about that Escude. if its a slam, you can bet that Nole will be in Clay Monster`s 1/2. must be a bloody conspiracy.

he was in Nadal`s 1/2 at last year`s U.S.Open, Wimby, and the French Open.Almagro will give his all to face Rafa again, so he can give him the full moon

"Go on my Master, take me ... i am yours :hearts: :worship:"

Lucinda
06-05-2008, 10:27 PM
It will be interesting to see how Nadal and Djokovic play if they meet in the final at Queens (assuming neither pull out of the tournament). As much as I want Nadal to win Wimbledon, I wouldn't mind Fed winning again, as long as it isn't Djokovic :D

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 10:36 PM
It will be interesting to see how Nadal and Djokovic play if they meet in the final at Queens (assuming neither pull out of the tournament). As much as I want Nadal to win Wimbledon, I wouldn't mind Fed winning again, as long as it isn't Djokovic :D


Nadal is playing doubles as well. i wish he would just skip it and follow Borg`s formula.

Borg felt that there was very little time between Roland Garros and Wimby so he didnt want to waste his time traveling and sitting in locker rooms waiting for his matches. instead he just got on grass and practiced 5-6 hours a day. he found that to a better use of his time and it got him ready for Wimby.

Lucinda
06-05-2008, 10:43 PM
Nadal is playing doubles as well. i wish he would just skip it and follow Borg`s formula.

Borg felt that there was very little time between Roland Garros and Wimby so he didnt want to waste his time traveling and sitting in locker rooms waiting for his matches. instead he just got on grass and practiced 5-6 hours a day. he found that to a better use of his time and it got him ready for Wimby.

I think Nadal uses matches to build-up his confidence. Hitting around on a practice court a few hours a day might get him used to the surface, but he needs that build-up to get the ball rolling, so to speak. Or maybe he's just got some sponsor/calendar commitments to fulfill. He's made two finals in a row, so his plan can't be all bad :shrug:

Of course, if he loses early at Wimbledon it will all be hindsight ;)

CrossCourt13
06-05-2008, 10:49 PM
Well apart from the big 3 I'd expect quite a few guys to pull some good results in the grass season.
Ancic, grass is his best surface and is one of the few who can play grass court tennis. It'll be good to see him going to the net more finally :rolleyes:
Gulbis, great serve, great forehand, good backhand, great volleys. Head could be an issue but he could do some damage if he's on.
Llodra, obviously he's gonna be a tough guy to beat on grass especially with the confidence he has right now.
Blake, head is an issue but he's got the goods for grass thats for sure. He did seem willing to do what it takes to perform well on clay so I expect him to do the same here where it should be much easier for his game.
Baghdatis, seems to be back. Doubt he'll win titles but he should be dangerous for everyone if he'll perform at a decent level.
Karlovic, maybe Mahut could create some magic as well :)

Dont think Gasquet and Berdych are up for playing tennis right now. Especially Richie, so I don't expect much from these guys.
Soderling after having selfdestructed once again is also pretty poor on my list of expectations.
Roddick of course if he's fit should be pretty much unbeatable on grass.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 11:22 PM
Well apart from the big 3 I'd expect quite a few guys to pull some good results in the grass season.
Ancic, grass is his best surface and is one of the few who can play grass court tennis. It'll be good to see him going to the net more finally :rolleyes:
Gulbis, great serve, great forehand, good backhand, great volleys. Head could be an issue but he could do some damage if he's on.
Llodra, obviously he's gonna be a tough guy to beat on grass especially with the confidence he has right now.
Blake, head is an issue but he's got the goods for grass thats for sure. He did seem willing to do what it takes to perform well on clay so I expect him to do the same here where it should be much easier for his game.
Baghdatis, seems to be back. Doubt he'll win titles but he should be dangerous for everyone if he'll perform at a decent level.
Karlovic, maybe Mahut could create some magic as well :)

Dont think Gasquet and Berdych are up for playing tennis right now. Especially Richie, so I don't expect much from these guys.
Soderling after having selfdestructed once again is also pretty poor on my list of expectations.
Roddick of course if he's fit should be pretty much unbeatable on grass.


Berdych and Gasquet are in a downward spiral these days losing to just about anybody and everybody. cant say if they can rebound to shine on grass so you are right about them.

here is a list of players who could make some noise outside the regular 3 top guns (Fed, Djokovic, and Nadal):

1. Nalbandian--he has been a major disappointment on clay. maybe he can save face on grass. he has the game.

2. Karlovic. one of the posters has already mentioned this.

3. Gulbis--possibly

4. Monfils--he does have that smoking serve. if he is healthy, he could take a scalp or 2.

who am i missing? i am not high on the Baggy Man.

Bibberz
06-05-2008, 11:31 PM
4. Monfils--he does have that smoking serve. if he is healthy, he could take a scalp or 2.

Monfils' second serve is lame, though. I wouldn't expect much from him.

l_mac
06-05-2008, 11:34 PM
It will be interesting to see how Nadal and Djokovic play if they meet in the final at Queens (assuming neither pull out of the tournament). As much as I want Nadal to win Wimbledon, I wouldn't mind Fed winning again, as long as it isn't Djokovic :D

I think if Rafa plays Queen's he'll lose around QF time again so he has some time at home.

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 11:37 PM
Monfils' second serve is lame, though. I wouldn't expect much from him.

you are probably right. maybe i expect too much from him.

NinaNina19
06-05-2008, 11:45 PM
Murray.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 12:02 AM
Murray.


great call. now there is a name i was missing. he has had some extra time to get on grass as well. i hope to see him do well at Wimbledon.

habibko
06-06-2008, 12:41 AM
I have this gut feeling that Djokovic won't make it too deep into the tournament, he might reach as far as a QF and lose to someone like Roddick/Ancic/Karlovic/Mahut or any grass courter in general.

as for Nadal, if he was anyone else I will start questioning his physical and mental conditioning to go very deep, but it IS Nadal so I can say pretty much only Roddick could derail him from his way to the final.

and as you could sense already, I feel this year is Roddick's year at Wimbledon, given he gets back healthy and get rid of this shoulder hindrance, his game is so good this year, even better than it was at his #1 days, and he could cause a huge upset out there.

last but not least, if Federer stayed healthy and played like he is playing in this last month (which is about same form as last year's) then he pretty much already reserved his place for the final.

my Wimbledon Final predicition:
Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick :) (if he landed in the other half of course)

Albop
06-06-2008, 01:01 AM
Berdych and Gasquet are in a downward spiral these days losing to just about anybody and everybody. cant say if they can rebound to shine on grass so you are right about them.

here is a list of players who could make some noise outside the regular 3 top guns (Fed, Djokovic, and Nadal):

1. Nalbandian--he has been a major disappointment on clay. maybe he can save face on grass. he has the game.

2. Karlovic. one of the posters has already mentioned this.

3. Gulbis--possibly

4. Monfils--he does have that smoking serve. if he is healthy, he could take a scalp or 2.

who am i missing? i am not high on the Baggy Man.

:spit:

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 04:02 AM
I have this gut feeling that Djokovic won't make it too deep into the tournament, he might reach as far as a QF and lose to someone like Roddick/Ancic/Karlovic/Mahut or any grass courter in general.

as for Nadal, if he was anyone else I will start questioning his physical and mental conditioning to go very deep, but it IS Nadal so I can say pretty much only Roddick could derail him from his way to the final.

and as you could sense already, I feel this year is Roddick's year at Wimbledon, given he gets back healthy and get rid of this shoulder hindrance, his game is so good this year, even better than it was at his #1 days, and he could cause a huge upset out there.

last but not least, if Federer stayed healthy and played like he is playing in this last month (which is about same form as last year's) then he pretty much already reserved his place for the final.

my Wimbledon Final predicition:
Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick :) (if he landed in the other half of course)


i agree about Roddick. he made some gains this year in his game. he beefed up his serve and his backhand. he even managed to improve his return game which has usually been a big liability for him.

2 wins over Nadal and Djokovic in Dubai were relatively significant. he held his serve no less than 54 times there which is exceptional. he even managed to get that old monkey off his back by gunning down Fed in Miami.

its a shame he started having some issues with his shoulder and his back. hopefully he can recover in time for Wimby. bgt says that he is already in London so evidently back he is back on the court.

General Suburbia
06-06-2008, 06:12 AM
Now that grass season is here, this gives everyone a chance to bash Clay Death and his advocating the 2-handed backhand. This is grass, so no one with a 2 hander can win this thing. That said, GO JAMES BLAKE.

Nothing against Clay Death, btw.

Chiseller
06-06-2008, 06:33 AM
Can't see how anyone is gonna stop Novak.

Mimi
06-06-2008, 06:35 AM
still think roger will win, especially if he wins on sunday, roger on grass is even more impressive than rafa on clay, he has not lost a match for, how many years? 6? in grass

Bibberz
06-06-2008, 06:45 AM
still think roger will win, especially if he wins on sunday, roger on grass is even more impressive than rafa on clay, he has not lost a match for, how many years? 6? in grass

I disagree. Federer on grass is extremely impressive, but I would put more stock in consecutive matches won rather than consecutive years without losing. Besides, most of Federer's grass court wins have been at Wimbledon--he is less likely to lose in a best-of-five-set scenario. It's certainly a worthwhile debate, though.

stebs
06-06-2008, 08:09 AM
I would like to see a Roddick - Djokovic match at Wimbledon. I think that would be a really good one and interesting to see the levels of those guys on grass. Murray - Nadal would be very good on grass I think. A lot of very good points would be played for sure with guys as fast as that. I'd like to see Ivo get past the first round for the first time in ages as well, he sucks in five set matches but he can still worry good players.

groundstroke
06-06-2008, 08:32 AM
great call. now there is a name i was missing. he has had some extra time to get on grass as well. i hope to see him do well at Wimbledon.
A British man doing well at Wimbledon?
:lol:

The Pro
06-06-2008, 08:55 AM
it is? i thought it was something like 2012?

I guess it's fair enough for a German to make fun of our efficiency. The damn thing should have been built this year. It's going to PISS DOWN this summer.

Turbosupermario
06-06-2008, 09:11 AM
online-betting-guide

Roger Federer 1.91
Novak Djokovic 5.7
Rafael Nadal 9
Andy Murray 27
Andy Roddick 38
Ernests Gulbis 67
Mario Ancic 70
Richard Gasquet 81
David Nalbandian 100
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 110
Lleyton Hewitt 110
-----------------------------

Ancic and Gulbis will not be seeded(unless Mario win or play final in Queens) and it is possible Nadal vs Ancic , Roddick vs Gulbis in first round).

stebs
06-06-2008, 09:31 AM
Interesting that Baghdatis is not even on the list. His last two appearances at Wimbledon - SF in 2006, QF (losing a marathon vs Djokovic) in 2007. If he is fit and gets some good practice he is a threat.

LK_22
06-06-2008, 09:33 AM
Quite good odds on the top three there and the A-Rod, Tsonga might as well have odds of 1000/1 as I can't see him being fit for Wimbledon

Yes, Wimbledon is getting the roof next year

And expect Federer to go into Wimbledon with at least 2 titles Halle should pose him no problems and you never know he might win RG :p

Bernard Black
06-06-2008, 10:09 AM
You just created this thread so you can go on about Djokovic like a broken record again :zzz:

On grass:

Federer >>>>>> Roddick > Nadal > in-form Hewitt > Djokovic

kobulingam
06-06-2008, 10:22 AM
Nadal has trouble on grass against many players.

Nadal has a better time handly Federer's looping shots on grass. But Nadal is susceptible to flatter hitters.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 01:11 PM
Nadal has trouble on grass against many players.

Nadal has a better time handly Federer's looping shots on grass. But Nadal is susceptible to flatter hitters.

agreed. first 3-4 matches are the key. if he can get into the quarters, he gathers enough experience and confidence to keep going.

that Kendrick fellow pushed him to 5 sets 2 years ago and nearly beat him. Kendrick was serving huge that day.

Kuhne
06-06-2008, 01:20 PM
expect Roddick to get far this year in wimby.

Bernard Black
06-06-2008, 01:22 PM
expect Roddick to get far this year in wimby.

I'd expect Roddick to win it if he can somehow avoid Federer.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 01:41 PM
I'd expect Roddick to win it if he can somehow avoid Federer.


i think he goes far but may not take the title. his chances for a slam are probably better at the U.S.Open if Fed and Djokovic can be upset somehow. Roddick will need a nice draw.

Stensland
06-06-2008, 02:41 PM
i'm gonna go out on a limb here like cd usually does:

nadal is not gonna get to the second week. mark my words. it's time for him to go out early on grass, it doesn't favor his game and once he runs into guys like soderling he'll falter.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 02:43 PM
i'm gonna go out on a limb here like cd usually does:

nadal is not gonna get to the second week. mark my words. it's time for him to go out early on grass, it doesn't favor his game and once he runs into guys like soderling he'll falter.


nothing wrong with little speculation. why would you say that Soderling can beat him on grass? Nadal let him linger around only because he couldnt close him out last year.

i am not sure if Soderling has a big enough serve to trouble the Clay Monster.

Stensland
06-06-2008, 02:52 PM
nothing wrong with little speculation. why would you say that Soderling can beat him on grass?

mainly because he's fearless and has the guts to take it to rafa constantly. i like his overall game as well, he doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. but anyways, soderling just stood for a whole bunch of guys that can take rafa down in my opinion, like ancic, llodra, kiefer, grosjean and that lot.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 02:55 PM
mainly because he's fearless and has the guts to take it to rafa constantly. i like his overall game as well, he doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. but anyways, soderling just stood for a whole bunch of guys that can take rafa down in my opinion, like ancic, llodra, kiefer, grosjean and that lot.


i hear you Rrrainer. like i suggested before, the key hurdle is the quarterfinals. if he can get there, his teeth will be firmly into the tournament. he (Clay Monster) ususally improves with each match there.

I agree. guys like Ancic and Llodra can knock him off on grass but they have to catch him early.

He now goes in as the #2 seed which means that he is likely to get a couple of hapless qualifiers in the first 2 rounds. lot of points to defend there. he knows he could lose his #2 rank there if he goes out early. look for him to fight like a tiger.

Stensland
06-06-2008, 02:59 PM
btw thanks for some cash, cd. i bet some money on nadal back when you confirmed that the clay monster was gonna win the title in paris for sure - i was hesitating at first but it is VERY likely to pay off come sunday. :)

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 03:02 PM
btw thanks for some cash, cd. i bet some money on nadal back when you confirmed that the clay monster was gonna win the title in paris for sure - i was hesitating at first but it is VERY likely to pay off come sunday. :)


you are welcome. he looks more determined than ever. he will play for 6 hours if he has to on sunday but he will take his 4th title with Borg and Vilas at courtside.

he will teas up Fed`s backhand wing to ribbons and then really open up the court with his mighty topspin forehand. he is moving well which is very bad news for Fed.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 05:12 PM
I disagree. Federer on grass is extremely impressive, but I would put more stock in consecutive matches won rather than consecutive years without losing. Besides, most of Federer's grass court wins have been at Wimbledon--he is less likely to lose in a best-of-five-set scenario. It's certainly a worthwhile debate, though.


he does appear a little more vulnerable this year than at anytime in the previous years.

i think maybe Nalby can make some noise at Wimby. he has stunk up the clay as of late. it is cold and damp at Wimby and hopefully for him, he wont have to worry about really long matches there.

Could Gulbis make a deep run here?

morningglory
06-06-2008, 05:21 PM
Yup this is where Fed will most likely fall to Loco Djoko should they meet in SF...
In the final I think Fed's drive to extend the streak will get him through... (not counting RG's, Fed's never lost a GS final in my memory...)

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 05:51 PM
Yup this is where Fed will most likely fall to Loco Djoko should they meet in SF...
In the final I think Fed's drive to extend the streak will get him through... (not counting RG's, Fed's never lost a GS final in my memory...)

there is a first time for everything. he cant win there forever.

Monteque
06-06-2008, 06:11 PM
I heard the speculation the grievous Fed will take the title again for the 6th time consecutively...really?

chris whiteside
06-06-2008, 06:18 PM
I think the draw could be vitally important. I could see Djokovic taking Federer out in a semi but if it came down to a final meeting between the two I somehow think Roger could take the extra pressure better and come through.

It's time for Andy Murray to prove whether he's all talk or not. We've heard all the same talk of "positives from defeat" over the years from Henman but Andy has confidently said he's ready for the challenge this year so at the very least he should make the quarters and show what he's made of.

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 06:23 PM
I think the draw could be vitally important. I could see Djokovic taking Federer out in a semi but if it came down to a final meeting between the two I somehow think Roger could take the extra pressure better and come through.

It's time for Andy Murray to prove whether he's all talk or not. We've heard all the same talk of "positives from defeat" over the years from Henman but Andy has confidently said he's ready for the challenge this year so at the very least he should make the quarters and show what he's made of.


you got it. the draw will be critical to Fed`s success there. i am hoping he gets Djokovic this time in his 1/2. lets see what he is really made of.

DDrago2
06-06-2008, 06:36 PM
you got it. the draw will be critical to Fed`s success there. i am hoping he gets Djokovic this time in his 1/2. lets see what he is really made of.

you can't see that he is a ghost

Clay Death
06-06-2008, 07:53 PM
you can't see that he is a ghost


too funny. he is certainly starting to look like one.

GuiroNl
06-06-2008, 09:33 PM
agreed. first 3-4 matches are the key. if he can get into the quarters, he gathers enough experience and confidence to keep going.

that Kendrick fellow pushed him to 5 sets 2 years ago and nearly beat him. Kendrick was serving huge that day.

I think it was that very comeback from 0-2 down that gave Nadal the confidence to reach the finals that year.

TMJordan
06-06-2008, 09:37 PM
i am not sure if Soderling has a big enough serve to trouble the Clay Monster.

Are you crazy? If Robin is playing his best on grass even against Nadal at his best on grass Robin is better.

bokehlicious
06-06-2008, 09:44 PM
Novak is a lock, on his way to the golden slam :cool:


oh wait...

TankingTheSet
06-06-2008, 11:24 PM
He now goes in as the #2 seed which means that he is likely to get a couple of hapless qualifiers in the first 2 rounds. lot of points to defend there. he knows he could lose his #2 rank there if he goes out early. look for him to fight like a tiger.

Nice logical thinking there. :retard:

The #2 seed is just as likely to play a qualifier as the #32 seed. Qualifiers are evenly distributed in the draw. In fact it is possible that Nadal will draw Ancic (unseeded) in round one and Soderling (unseeded) in round two, for example, if he is really unlucky.

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:13 AM
I think it was that very comeback from 0-2 down that gave Nadal the confidence to reach the finals that year.


right. i think that grass is pretty slick early on as well which makes it tricky for Nadal in the first 1-4 rounds.

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:40 AM
Are you crazy? If Robin is playing his best on grass even against Nadal at his best on grass Robin is better.


more and more of your posts are being edited by raging lamb. does that tell you something?

now Soderling is better than Nadal. right. we are all watching tennis. what sport are you watching?

l_mac
06-07-2008, 01:48 AM
Are you crazy? If Robin is playing his best on grass even against Nadal at his best on grass Robin is better.
Stop trolling, Jordan. :kiss:
more and more of your posts are being edited by raging lamb. does that tell you something?



:haha: :haha: :haha:

Jordan :worship:

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:52 AM
Stop trolling, Jordan. :kiss:



:haha: :haha: :haha:

Jordan :worship:

actually i need to apologize to jordan. i glanced over the post quickly thinking it was another garbage post by that glenn myrni character.

i got no beef with jordan. jordan carry on. my mistake.

NinaNina19
06-07-2008, 01:53 AM
Nice logical thinking there. :retard:

The #2 seed is just as likely to play a qualifier as the #32 seed. Qualifiers are evenly distributed in the draw. In fact it is possible that Nadal will draw Ancic (unseeded) in round one and Soderling (unseeded) in round two, for example, if he is really unlucky.No, Murray will get that.

Getta
06-07-2008, 01:54 AM
more and more of your posts are being edited by raging lamb. does that tell you something?


That was the bestest from you.

Getta
06-07-2008, 01:56 AM
actually i need to apologize to jordan.

i got no beef with jordan. jordan carry on. my mistake.

:worship:

JimmyV
06-07-2008, 03:30 AM
This has nothing to do with this thread, but I_mac your signature is frigging hilarious.

TMJordan
06-07-2008, 03:36 AM
:hug: clay death


But seriously if Robin is serving big, Nadal will have trouble even getting the ball back.

Kuhne
06-07-2008, 04:00 AM
Nadal moves so well that even in grass he is one of the best but there are a bunch of guys like Roddick, Djokovic and probably Davydenko, Safin (if playing the way he played in wimbledon last year in the final set) Youhzny (who was beating nadal before he quit due to injury) who can beat him on grass, they "should" beat him on grass but with Nadal's heart, you never know, he is a machine.

still, people make way too much fuzz about the 5 set final in wimby, Roger and Rafa's difference of skill in grass is even greater than their difference on clay. the reason Rafa got two sets off Roger was because he played like a dumb clown, he basicaly gave them away. Still, as I said, Rafa is such a machine that nothing he does should surprise anyone.

sheeter
06-07-2008, 04:54 AM
It'd be fun to see a Roddick Gasquet rematch.

krystlel
06-07-2008, 05:04 AM
I don't understand why Gulbis is so high on the betting odds, I see this is coming from Betfair so it has to do with what people are putting their money on.

Baghdatis and Berdych have done well on the grass in the last couple of years, although both haven't had much match practice recently.

Knightmace
06-07-2008, 08:05 AM
Nole will win one or two way into the future when he's like 25 or 26.

Federer will be Wimbledon't best player ever.

MaryX
06-07-2008, 10:04 AM
Nole will win one or two way into the future when he's like 25 or 26.

Federer will be Wimbledon't best player ever.

I am not sure Nole will play tennis at that age, or he won't be that good.I just see him that way.He'll improve another year or two maybe and has about 4 years from now to win his one or two Wimbledon titles.

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:37 PM
I don't understand why Gulbis is so high on the betting odds, I see this is coming from Betfair so it has to do with what people are putting their money on.

Baghdatis and Berdych have done well on the grass in the last couple of years, although both haven't had much match practice recently.

Gulbis has the goods. he just has to put it all together. by his own admission, he is a better fast court player.

Machiavelli
06-07-2008, 01:47 PM
I just hope that Mario does not have to play in Rogers part of the draw again, it is about time that he gets a descent draw, and then you will see...

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:49 PM
I just hope that Mario does not have to play in Rogers part of the draw again, it is about time that he gets a descent draw, and then you will see...


i like Super Mario. he is due for a good tournament.

Tennis-Engineer
06-07-2008, 01:50 PM
Gulbis has played 3 matches in ATP or challenger level on grass and has lost all 3 but this year I expect he achives much more.

Queens 2007, First Round: lost to Robert Kendrick(USA) 6-7(5) 6-7(8)

's-Hertogenbosch 2007, First Round: lost to [3]Guillermo Canas(ARG) 6-7(5) 5-7

Wimbledon 2007 ,First round: lost to [10]Marcos Baghdatis(CYP) 6-3 4-6 3-6 2-6

All 3 matches have been tight and for his first experience on grass it is acceptable result.

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 01:56 PM
Gulbis has played 3 matches in ATP or challenger level on grass and has lost all 3 but this year I expect he achives much more.

Queens 2007, First Round: lost to Robert Kendrick(USA) 6-7(5) 6-7(8)

's-Hertogenbosch 2007, First Round: lost to [3]Guillermo Canas(ARG) 6-7(5) 5-7

Wimbledon 2007 ,First round: lost to [10]Marcos Baghdatis(CYP) 6-3 4-6 3-6 2-6

All 3 matches have been tight and for his first experience on grass it is acceptable result.


he is a different player this year so we will see how his progress goes.

Machiavelli
06-07-2008, 01:59 PM
does he not have a win over Fed on grass or am i mistaken?
Ancic was the last one who got a win against Roger on grass :cool:

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 02:10 PM
Ancic was the last one who got a win against Roger on grass :cool:


yep. i just realized that. my mistake. i must have had Ancic in mind.

Gulbis is too new to the scene on grass.

BigJohn
06-07-2008, 02:42 PM
I am not usually that pumped for Wimbledon, but this year is different, don't know why.

I would love a Federer-Roddick final

I want Nadal to make it at least 2 rounds better than Djokovic.

I anticipate Ancic or somebody like that will upset the #3 seed in the first couple of rounds. OK, that last one is wishfull thinking, but Ancic or anyone else really deserves it.

Tennis-Engineer
06-07-2008, 03:48 PM
I am not usually that pumped for Wimbledon, but this year is different, don't know why.

I would love a Federer-Roddick final

I want Nadal to make it at least 2 rounds better than Djokovic.

I anticipate Ancic or somebody like that will upset the #3 seed in the first couple of rounds. OK, that last one is wishfull thinking, but Ancic or anyone else really deserves it.


Ancic can beat anyone in wimbledon except Federer, Nadal and Roddick I think.He beat Djokovic 6-4 4-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 in wimbledon 2006. Djokovic-Ancic is one of my dream matches for the first or second round of wimbledon this year.

miura
06-07-2008, 03:59 PM
thanks bgt. any idea if the French are working on a retractable roof also? is it in the planning stages at least?
Yes, they are building a new court opposite the road from the grounds with retractable roof which will be finished around 2012. It was supposed to be built in case of the Olympics but London got that but I think they decided to make it anyway since they need it.

GlennMirnyi
06-07-2008, 04:04 PM
Ancic can beat anyone in wimbledon except Federer, Nadal and Roddick I think.He beat Djokovic 6-4 4-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 in wimbledon 2006. Djokovic-Ancic is one of my dream matches for the first or second round of wimbledon this year.

Dream match because it will put the world to sleep so everybody can dream? :)

HarryMan
06-07-2008, 04:09 PM
So how about a Stepanek v/s Federer Wimbledon semifinal match, now that would definitely be a dream match for everyone, right Glenn? :p

GlennMirnyi
06-07-2008, 04:30 PM
So how about a Stepanek v/s Federer Wimbledon semifinal match, now that would definitely be a dream match for everyone, right Glenn? :p

That would be a very good and exciting match. Pure quality, S&Ving and intelligent play.

jcempire
06-07-2008, 04:39 PM
Tough to say, But If Roger play the same level as last couple of years, No one has chance

FedFan_2007
06-07-2008, 04:43 PM
Should Rafa be the #1 seed I'm thinking...

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-07-2008, 09:28 PM
too funny. people are smelling grass already also. i am so fired up.

i believe that we will be treated to a hard fought Nadal vs Djokovic semifinal tomorrow. Fed is pretty much going to destroy Monfils.

and in the final, Nadal will demolish Fed
in straight sets this time. its in the bag. trust me on this.

lets get on with Wimbledon and the warm-up events. I think Fed will skip the warm-up again this year. It worked for him last year so he might try it again.

Brain Death - FYI Djokovic has no hope of beating Federer on grass. He can't generate enough spin on his B/H to deal with Fed's slice. He struggled with it in the USO final and it will be far, far worse on grass. Nadal is a much bigger threat to Federer on grass because he can get the ball up and down from even the lowest slice.

If Djokovic is going to back up his talk and topple Fed, he will need to wait until the HC season for his chance.

Stop confusing what you want to happen with reality!

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 11:34 PM
Brain Death - FYI Djokovic has no hope of beating Federer on grass. He can't generate enough spin on his B/H to deal with Fed's slice. He struggled with it in the USO final and it will be far, far worse on grass. Nadal is a much bigger threat to Federer on grass because he can get the ball up and down from even the lowest slice.

If Djokovic is going to back up his talk and topple Fed, he will need to wait until the HC season for his chance.

Stop confusing what you want to happen with reality!


top 3 are so much ahead of the others that one almost has to go with one of them to grab the title. i just think that this Wimbledon is open for one other player. we will see how it all plays out. i also believe that Fed is little more vulnerable this year in terms of his own game. it has looked shaky at times.

Djokovic certainly has a chance. his ground game has depth, consistency, and penetration that works well on faster courts. he now has the serve and return of serve that is among the best in the world.

the only uncertainty would the 4th player in the semifinals.

leng jai
06-07-2008, 11:45 PM
I bet my lifesavings plus my Grandma on Haas winning Wimbledon - Fedmug, Fakemug, Nadmug no chance.

Clay Death
06-07-2008, 11:50 PM
I bet my lifesavings plus my Grandma on Haas winning Wimbledon - Fedmug, Fakemug, Nadmug no chance.


Haas should have been a Wimby champ. its shame he was struck down with so much misfortune with the injuries.

Commander Data
06-08-2008, 12:22 AM
Fed all the way. Djoker Nadal at least SF.

scoobs
06-08-2008, 12:30 AM
I bet my lifesavings plus my Grandma on Haas winning Wimbledon - Fedmug, Fakemug, Nadmug no chance.
I fear for Granny Leng :(

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 01:07 AM
I fear for Granny Leng :(

this leng jai is quite a gambler.

Ouragan
06-08-2008, 01:36 AM
Why, nobody has mentioned Santoro? He won a grass court tournament in 2007, Newport. 35 is a perfect age to win one's first grand slam, I should say :)

JediFed
06-08-2008, 04:48 AM
Federer >>>>>> Roddick > Nadal > in-form Hewitt > Santoro > Djokovic

Fixed. :cool:

Monteque
06-08-2008, 09:59 AM
Roddick > Nadal
Fixed. :cool:
in case of what?:confused:

IAMlegend
06-08-2008, 11:53 AM
This year Nadal's luck will run out. No final, not even a semi for the capri pants wearing one.

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 02:02 PM
This year Nadal's luck will run out. No final, not even a semi for the capri pants wearing one.


that sounds like a hater`s prayer.

leng jai
06-08-2008, 02:16 PM
I fear for Granny Leng :(

this leng jai is quite a gambler.

Don't you worry, grandma leng is in good hands.

marcRD
06-08-2008, 03:03 PM
I wonder if Fed can ever get over this humiliation he has recieved today. I feel bad for him, really.

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 03:16 PM
I wonder if Fed can ever get over this humiliation he has recieved today. I feel bad for him, really.

he is a weakened player and he enters Wimby with still nothing but a tiny Estoril title to his name.

its high time people realize that he is very vulnerable on other surfaces as well now.

Djokovic`s and Nadal`s stock just skyrocketed.

ClaudiuS
06-08-2008, 03:42 PM
Lets hope Djokovic doesn't face Kevin Anderson in Wimbly, otherwise he will be in trouble :lol:

leng jai
06-08-2008, 03:44 PM
Borg = Typical Bandwagoning mug.

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 03:47 PM
Borg = Typical Bandwagoning mug.

one thing i dont understand leng jai:

why did Borg pick Fed to win at Roland Garros in 2007 and then again in 2008.

makes me wonder if he has forgotten his clay court tennis. Clay Monster is a beast on clay.

i mesn the guy is 41-0 in the best of 5 sets foremats on clay. he has lost like 3 matches on clay in over 3 years. one of them was due to severe blisters. one in Hamburg last year might have been doe to extreme fatigue.

i can see what Borg is saying about Wimby. Nadal did push Fed to 5 sets there last year.

maskedmuffin
06-08-2008, 04:00 PM
been watching for years clay death..get ready for hard court death..the part of the year where thumpers and their knees get destroyed.

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 04:15 PM
been watching for years clay death..get ready for hard court death..the part of the year where thumpers and their knees get destroyed.

we all know he cant play as well on hard courts as he can on clay. tell us something we dont know.

22 of his 27 titles are on clay. that should provide some clue as to where his core competencies are.

now beat it. all you want to do is fight.

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 04:19 PM
counter my point about grass court and low bounces clay toad
oh thats right, you cant -so all your "anticipation and speculation" is basically pulled outta your arse

clay season is over, go and hibernate you fool

i will be right here to remind you of Djokovic`s superiority on all other surfaces time and again.

Nadal has a chance to be in the finals again at Wimby. he looks determined and motivated enough and he is healthy again.

now all he needs is Fed and Djokovic in the same 1/2 of the draw.

maskedmuffin
06-08-2008, 04:28 PM
i see you just cant get off from your name calling spree. cool. it just weakens your arguments.

Fed is done even on grass. watch and learn. cant you see how shaky he has been this year. the guy is in decline.

i think i can see where your hate is coming from now. you are just bitter that Fed was given a clay court lesson today.

more clinics--yes even on grass--await Fed at Wimby.


to be the man, you have to beat the man;

hasnt happened therefore federer= man on grass

you are throwing stones at a tank that has already won 5 wimbys; move out of the way
or get steamrolled

DDrago2
06-08-2008, 04:31 PM
Borg looks like a true gentleman, but it seems he is a realy passionate man and so it must somewhat cloud his reasoning, so when he sais Nadal will win Wimbledon I am not sure he realy means it or he more wishes it

Clay Death
06-08-2008, 04:32 PM
to be the man, you have to beat the man;

hasnt happened therefore federer= man on grass

you are throwing stones at a tank that has already won 5 wimbys; move out of the way
or get steamrolled

a clay courter with a weak serve and weaker return game almost beat him last year. worse, Nadal cant volley and has a relatively useless slice. and he still nearly took out Fed on grass.

just pray for death. it will come soon enough. death would have come to Fed at Wimby last year if Nadal had not played 7 days in a row and even sustained a knee problem along the way.

maskedmuffin
06-08-2008, 04:33 PM
a clay courter with a weak serve and weaker return game almost beat him last year. worse, Nadal cant volley and has a relatively useless slice. and he still nearly took out Fed on grass.

just pray for death. it will come soon enough. death would have come to Fed at Wimby last year if Nadal had not played 7 days in a row and even sustained a knee problem along the way.

again; to be the man you have to BEAT the man

you are sitting here and making cases for almosts and maybes

and to top it off, you are throwing EXCUSES for a guy who you revere as being SPARTAN

out of the way peon, tank approaching

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 01:20 AM
again; to be the man you have to BEAT the man

you are sitting here and making cases for almosts and maybes

and to top it off, you are throwing EXCUSES for a guy who you revere as being SPARTAN

out of the way peon, tank approaching


here are the new Wimby favs for 2008:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Fed

Nadal`s and Djokovic`s stock just skyrocketed. live with it Homes.

leng jai
06-09-2008, 01:27 AM
1. Oscar Hernandez

Vast ocean




2. Horna
3. Cuevas

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 01:28 AM
1. Oscar Hernandez

Vast ocean




2. Horna
3. Cuevas


good one.

fanancic
06-09-2008, 07:08 AM
I hope that Mario Ancic will play a great Wimbledon... Good luck to him!

Stefanos13
06-09-2008, 07:22 AM
Wimbledon is a much more open affair this year. There will be additional 'actors' involved in relation to the FO. There's a lot of reference to Fed, Nadal, and Djoko but there's a big chance that the final may feature only one of them.

Don't forget Rod, Hewitt, and I guess to a lesser extent Ancic and Nalbandian (I have a feeling he'll wake up)

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 02:08 PM
Wimbledon is a much more open affair this year. There will be additional 'actors' involved in relation to the FO. There's a lot of reference to Fed, Nadal, and Djoko but there's a big chance that the final may feature only one of them.

Don't forget Rod, Hewitt, and I guess to a lesser extent Ancic and Nalbandian (I have a feeling he'll wake up)


see thats a great post. you are calling it like it is. the Wimby is more of an open affair this time around. this is the very case i have been trying to make.

Fed may see his luck finally run out here. newer players could emerge.

the ultimate x-factor for Fed is pressure. he has never been under this kind of pressure before. no longer is the Wimby just a given for him.

platinum
06-09-2008, 02:27 PM
Nadal will win Wimbledon.

Djokovic will win USO.

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 02:31 PM
Nadal will win Wimbledon.

Djokovic will win USO.


if we are to go by the last final at Wimby, Nadal certainly has a chance. Djokovic is surging and Fed is in decline.

there is absolutely no question that Djokovic will run over everybody at the U.S. Open. its his favorite surface and he now has the goods.

DDrago2
06-09-2008, 02:32 PM
Federer has nothing new to show on this Wimbledon, he already did it all. It's upon other players, expecialy younger ones, to try to dethrone him. Their's chances are weak, but since this new slower surface will probably somewhat put Federer to sleep - it;s not the grass court tennis he loves best - they are in a better position

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 02:40 PM
Federer has nothing new to show on this Wimbledon, he already did it all. It's upon other players, expecialy younger ones, to try to dethrone him. Their's chances are weak, but since this new slower surface will probably somewhat put Federer to sleep - it;s not the grass court tennis he loves best - they are in a better position

the old "if he cant dance then the damn floor must be crooked" theory.

the fact is that he is under immense pressure and then there are 2 or 3 players who can actually derail him there.

Bazooka
06-09-2008, 03:11 PM
Some facts on serve stats from ATP site:

Serving
-Federer has a 64% 1st serve. Ranked 17th.
-Nadal has a 70% 1st serve. Ranked 3rd.

Return
-Federer is winning 29% of return games. Ranked 28th
-Nadal is winning 36% of return games. Ranked 2nd
-Nadal is leader (1st position) in points won returning 1st serve (38%) and 2nd serve(57%). Roger is ranked 5th (35%) and 11th (51%)

This year, with Nadal much stronger in serve, and roger less effective than ever on 1st serve, he won't be able to save himself from Nadal in an eventual repeat of the final. ¿Remember that fifth set last year? won't happen again.

Against Djokovic, I don't think Federer stands much chance, sorry. I really hate the Joker and like Roger, but Federer's much worse now than in the AO, and Djokovic is too hungry.

And about a Nadal-Djokovic match, I am sorry, but I think the result is too obvious. Nadal will trash him! We're talking about five sets here, and all references except IW point to Nadal as the winner.

So my prediction is, Nadal has a 60% chance of reaching semis, then a 75% chance of winning Wimbledon. That makes him my favourute.

Djokovic will reach the semis, very likely, then fall to Nadal or crush Fed/anyone else and reach the final.

Federer is too unstable to predict, but I guess his "aura" alone can get him to semis. Then... :(

I still believe Federer will come back and claim his throne with authority... but looking at his face, it will not happen in 2008.

Stefanos13
06-09-2008, 03:40 PM
see thats a great post. you are calling it like it is. the Wimby is more of an open affair this time around. this is the very case i have been trying to make.

Fed may see his luck finally run out here. newer players could emerge.

the ultimate x-factor for Fed is pressure. he has never been under this kind of pressure before. no longer is the Wimby just a given for him.

thank you. Glad someone agrees

Clay Death
06-09-2008, 11:47 PM
Some facts on serve stats from ATP site:

Serving
-Federer has a 64% 1st serve. Ranked 17th.
-Nadal has a 70% 1st serve. Ranked 3rd.

Return
-Federer is winning 29% of return games. Ranked 28th
-Nadal is winning 36% of return games. Ranked 2nd
-Nadal is leader (1st position) in points won returning 1st serve (38%) and 2nd serve(57%). Roger is ranked 5th (35%) and 11th (51%)

This year, with Nadal much stronger in serve, and roger less effective than ever on 1st serve, he won't be able to save himself from Nadal in an eventual repeat of the final. ┐Remember that fifth set last year? won't happen again.

Against Djokovic, I don't think Federer stands much chance, sorry. I really hate the Joker and like Roger, but Federer's much worse now than in the AO, and Djokovic is too hungry.

And about a Nadal-Djokovic match, I am sorry, but I think the result is too obvious. Nadal will trash him! We're talking about five sets here, and all references except IW point to Nadal as the winner.

So my prediction is, Nadal has a 60% chance of reaching semis, then a 75% chance of winning Wimbledon. That makes him my favourute.

Djokovic will reach the semis, very likely, then fall to Nadal or crush Fed/anyone else and reach the final.

Federer is too unstable to predict, but I guess his "aura" alone can get him to semis. Then... :(

I still believe Federer will come back and claim his throne with authority... but looking at his face, it will not happen in 2008.

excellent post. this is what the Federereeeeeeesians do not want to hear.

he has a lost a little step and worse, he may not really have the belief any more.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 12:26 AM
thank you. Glad someone agrees

everybody i talk to now says exactly the same thing. they say that Fed is not the same as in the years past. one could clearly see it on his face at Roland Garros.

i think this loos of confidence and the element of pressure finally takes its toll on him even on grass. he still has that big serve and the massive forehand but some of the players will take advantage of his slightly declined movement. being out of confidence is a very big deal at the top level.

he will need one hell of a draw at Wimby to get in the finals again.

i realize Nalby stunk up the clay circuit but he has the game to take down Fed. Djokovic and Nadal cannot be taken lightly on grass either. not sure how Roddick is progressing with his recent injuries.

Clydey
06-10-2008, 12:48 AM
At this stage it really is tough to make predictions. So much depends on the draw. Anyone can draw an Ancic or a Karlovic and get sent packing early. That said, if Nadal can ease himself into the tournament, it will be hard to choose between him and Djokovic. I was astounded by Nadal's performance in last year's final. Federer's serve won it for him really. Without those timely aces, I could not have seen him beating Nadal.

That said, it also depends on what Federer turns up. Form is temporary, class is permanent an' all that. Should Federer turn up and play somewhere near his best, all bets are off. However, if MonoFed/Roland Garros Final Fed turn up, I can see his seeding carrying him to a semi-final at most. What I will say, though, is that grass may very well be the saviour of Federer this year. Points are generally far shorter, so he can avoid those long rallies that invariably lead to him hitting a backhand off of the frame or a forehand into the stands.

I also wouldn't write off Roddick or Murray. As a Murray fan, I'm doing my best to be objective here. I'd rather wait until I see his performance at Queens before making bold predictions. That said, if he puts it together finally, he's in the mix. Similarly, Roddick has reason to be confident. He is playing well and looks far more secure off of the ground this year.

There are too many variable too really make any confident predictions right now. If I had to bet, I would put money on Djokovic. I think his game suits grass and his mental toughness is on a par with Nadal's.

MrChopin
06-10-2008, 01:11 AM
Some facts on serve stats from ATP site:

Serving
-Federer has a 64% 1st serve. Ranked 17th.
-Nadal has a 70% 1st serve. Ranked 3rd.

Return
-Federer is winning 29% of return games. Ranked 28th
-Nadal is winning 36% of return games. Ranked 2nd
-Nadal is leader (1st position) in points won returning 1st serve (38%) and 2nd serve(57%). Roger is ranked 5th (35%) and 11th (51%)

This year, with Nadal much stronger in serve, and roger less effective than ever on 1st serve, he won't be able to save himself from Nadal in an eventual repeat of the final. ¿Remember that fifth set last year? won't happen again.

Against Djokovic, I don't think Federer stands much chance, sorry. I really hate the Joker and like Roger, but Federer's much worse now than in the AO, and Djokovic is too hungry.

And about a Nadal-Djokovic match, I am sorry, but I think the result is too obvious. Nadal will trash him! We're talking about five sets here, and all references except IW point to Nadal as the winner.

So my prediction is, Nadal has a 60% chance of reaching semis, then a 75% chance of winning Wimbledon.

No, I'm sorry, because you're living in a clay-cloud fantasy. As much as I've hoped for the opposite, Djokovic has pounded Rafa the last few times on slow hard court (not TMC!). I'm not saying Rafa won't win (if #2 and #3 play, he damn well better win), but Nadal is not .6*.75= 45% favorite to win Wimbledon. He may not even be the favorite against Djokovic.

And Federer is looking better than AO, so much better that he wasn't only a 55% MTF-favorite to beat Monfils at RG (like he was at Monte Carlo). Yeah, his yearly stats may be terrible, but Fed is clearly back to good form, or did the RG final make everyone forget that he made 3/4 of the biggest clay finals this year, on the way dismissing the fat one and the hungry one rather efficiently. While Fed was just cleaned by the high priest of death, remember that it was on clay, not where he's won five in a row.

he will need one hell of a draw at Wimby to get in the finals again.

Who does he need to avoid?

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 01:44 AM
At this stage it really is tough to make predictions. So much depends on the draw. Anyone can draw an Ancic or a Karlovic and get sent packing early. That said, if Nadal can ease himself into the tournament, it will be hard to choose between him and Djokovic. I was astounded by Nadal's performance in last year's final. Federer's serve won it for him really. Without those timely aces, I could not have seen him beating Nadal.

That said, it also depends on what Federer turns up. Form is temporary, class is permanent an' all that. Should Federer turn up and play somewhere near his best, all bets are off. However, if MonoFed/Roland Garros Final Fed turn up, I can see his seeding carrying him to a semi-final at most. What I will say, though, is that grass may very well be the saviour of Federer this year. Points are generally far shorter, so he can avoid those long rallies that invariably lead to him hitting a backhand off of the frame or a forehand into the stands.

I also wouldn't write off Roddick or Murray. As a Murray fan, I'm doing my best to be objective here. I'd rather wait until I see his performance at Queens before making bold predictions. That said, if he puts it together finally, he's in the mix. Similarly, Roddick has reason to be confident. He is playing well and looks far more secure off of the ground this year.

There are too many variable too really make any confident predictions right now. If I had to bet, I would put money on Djokovic. I think his game suits grass and his mental toughness is on a par with Nadal's.

great post. Murray is the name i need to remember. he has the goods and can produce a great match on any one given day. 2 wins over Fed suggests that he is relatively fearless. he just has to play his game and be aggressive.

the right draw for Fed is everything. if he draws Nalby, Karlovic, Murray, and Djokovic, it will be tougher than usual.

i believe the Roland Garros final leaves him a little out of confidence. he even said it. he said that Nadal is the last man you want to face the next day after that performance.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 02:23 AM
No, I'm sorry, because you're living in a clay-cloud fantasy. As much as I've hoped for the opposite, Djokovic has pounded Rafa the last few times on slow hard court (not TMC!). I'm not saying Rafa won't win (if #2 and #3 play, he damn well better win), but Nadal is not .6*.75= 45% favorite to win Wimbledon. He may not even be the favorite against Djokovic.

And Federer is looking better than AO, so much better that he wasn't only a 55% MTF-favorite to beat Monfils at RG (like he was at Monte Carlo). Yeah, his yearly stats may be terrible, but Fed is clearly back to good form, or did the RG final make everyone forget that he made 3/4 of the biggest clay finals this year, on the way dismissing the fat one and the hungry one rather efficiently. While Fed was just cleaned by the high priest of death, remember that it was on clay, not where he's won five in a row.



Who does he need to avoid?

if he has to play both Djokovic and Nadal back to back, he could be derailed.

i never thought i would ever hear Fed say this but he did say the other day that he is a little "unlucky" that he is playing at the same time as the greatest clay court player ever.

a truly sad excuse from somebody who has dominated the tour for the last 5 years and wants to make a case for himself as the greratest ever. i think it shows that he is out of confidence.

he used to say that he had the "game to dismantle Nadal on clay". now he has another worry. now there is somebody far more dangerous for faster surfaces that Nadal. Djokovic is going after Fed on hard courts and possibly even grass.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 01:54 PM
At this stage it really is tough to make predictions. So much depends on the draw. Anyone can draw an Ancic or a Karlovic and get sent packing early. That said, if Nadal can ease himself into the tournament, it will be hard to choose between him and Djokovic. I was astounded by Nadal's performance in last year's final. Federer's serve won it for him really. Without those timely aces, I could not have seen him beating Nadal.

That said, it also depends on what Federer turns up. Form is temporary, class is permanent an' all that. Should Federer turn up and play somewhere near his best, all bets are off. However, if MonoFed/Roland Garros Final Fed turn up, I can see his seeding carrying him to a semi-final at most. What I will say, though, is that grass may very well be the saviour of Federer this year. Points are generally far shorter, so he can avoid those long rallies that invariably lead to him hitting a backhand off of the frame or a forehand into the stands.

I also wouldn't write off Roddick or Murray. As a Murray fan, I'm doing my best to be objective here. I'd rather wait until I see his performance at Queens before making bold predictions. That said, if he puts it together finally, he's in the mix. Similarly, Roddick has reason to be confident. He is playing well and looks far more secure off of the ground this year.

There are too many variable too really make any confident predictions right now. If I had to bet, I would put money on Djokovic. I think his game suits grass and his mental toughness is on a par with Nadal's.

check out the latest tennis magazine called "tennis". it has the Wimbledon preview. Its Fed, Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, and Nalby who are highlighted.

the highlight on Djokovic is rather revealing. they say his ability to change direction of the ball is "unparalleled" in tennis. they add that he can do it all according to what the circumstances might call for. he can outlast you or blow you off the court. being down doesnt deter him.

Fed does goes in as the favorite but i think we will see a new champion this year. it could be between Djokovic or Nadal.

rocketassist
06-10-2008, 01:57 PM
Karlovic tough? OK he's a dangerous floater, but you know if you get to a fifth set against him, he's toast.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 02:10 PM
Karlovic tough? OK he's a dangerous floater, but you know if you get to a fifth set against him, he's toast.
i am looking for a good tournament from Karlovic. i also think Gulbis could be a surprise quarterfinalist this year.

Nalby and Roddick are going to make the quarters as well. believe it or not but that Russian idiot Davydenko is playing a small time clay event in Poland. he did well last year at Wimby. cant say much about him this year on grass.

marcRD
06-10-2008, 03:35 PM
Nadal likes to hit low bouncing balls and his backhand is lethal on grass. Nadals passing shots also come to great useon grass and his sliced serve to the backhand of righthanded players is a real weapon.

Djokovic does have a big serve which is good on grass, but most other part of his game is neither a weakness or strength on grass. His passing shots are not up to Federers and Nadals standard, he doesnt like to play lowbouncing balls as much as Federer and Nadal does because of the lack of topspin in both his backhand and forehand. His slice and volleys are not great.

Well, he has a lot to proof this year at wimbledon. I wouldnt bet Djokovic will get to another semifinal in wimbledon, I think Roddick somehow still is the 2nd greatest grasscourt player in the world and that he would take down Nadal if they would face each other on grass.

Bazooka
06-10-2008, 03:41 PM
No, I'm sorry, because you're living in a clay-cloud fantasy. As much as I've hoped for the opposite, Djokovic has pounded Rafa the last few times on slow hard court (not TMC!). I'm not saying Rafa won't win (if #2 and #3 play, he damn well better win), but Nadal is not .6*.75= 45% favorite to win Wimbledon. He may not even be the favorite against Djokovic.

Mr Chopin, I love your music, but really not your tennis analysis.

Grass is faster than IW, really it is.

Maybe you think Montreal 2007 and IW 2008 are more relevant here than their 2 latest meetings (important mentally because they are recent), their last year meeting on this same tournament, their last meeting on a real fast surface (MC) or maybe Novak's struggle (in all matches but one) last year in both Queens and Wimbledon?

And Federer is looking better than AO, so much better that he wasn't only a 55% MTF-favorite to beat Monfils at RG (like he was at Monte Carlo). Yeah, his yearly stats may be terrible, but Fed is clearly back to good form, or did the RG final make everyone forget that he made 3/4 of the biggest clay finals this year, on the way dismissing the fat one and the hungry one rather efficiently. While Fed was just cleaned by the high priest of death, remember that it was on clay, not where he's won five in a row.

Well, I can go to some degree into your fantasy and say that Roger is recovering a little. However you have to admit he is not in last year form. Not in serve, not in forehand, not in backhand, not in mental strenght. He took a set from Rafa last year in RG, and won him in Hamburg. He won the AO. And I'm really sorry about it, but it's too obvious that he's less of a player he was 12 months ago.

Remember the final last year, with a much more tired Rafa? With a less solid Rafa? Honestly, I admit anything can happen, no certainties, but just add 2 plus 2.

Bazooka
06-10-2008, 03:44 PM
I think Roddick somehow still is the 2nd greatest grasscourt player in the world and that he would take down Nadal if they would face each other on grass.

That would be an excellent match, specially after Roddick has found some game this year.

marcRD
06-10-2008, 03:49 PM
That would be an excellent match, specially after Roddick has found some game this year.

Yes, it would probably go to 5 sets and many tiebreaks, a real emotional rollercoaster which would be decided on some few important points as both would have great difficulty to break each other.

Bazooka
06-10-2008, 03:54 PM
Yes, it would probably go to 5 sets and many tiebreaks, a real emotional rollercoaster which would be decided on some few important points as both would have great difficulty to break each other.

Maybe that's going too far, either Nadal will read his serve and find out how to break it, or he won't. 3 sets likely, maybe 4 with the last being very short.

marcRD
06-10-2008, 04:01 PM
Maybe that's going too far, either Nadal will read his serve and find out how to break it, or he won't. 3 sets likely, maybe 4 with the last being very short.

I think it will be more like the match Roddick-Gasquet. Gasquet controlled all baseline rallies while Roddick just held his serve. Gasquet only broke Roddick twice in that match but held his own serve because Roddick was completely outplayed from the baseline. I cant see Roddick controlling baseline rallies against Nadal, but he can find a way to just hold his serve anyway and take set after set to tiebreaks where he is quite good.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 04:03 PM
Mr Chopin, I love your music, but really not your tennis analysis.

Grass is faster than IW, really it is.

Maybe you think Montreal 2007 and IW 2008 are more relevant here than their 2 latest meetings (important mentally because they are recent), their last year meeting on this same tournament, their last meeting on a real fast surface (MC) or maybe Novak's struggle (in all matches but one) last year in both Queens and Wimbledon?



Well, I can go to some degree into your fantasy and say that Roger is recovering a little. However you have to admit he is not in last year form. Not in serve, not in forehand, not in backhand, not in mental strenght. He took a set from Rafa last year in RG, and won him in Hamburg. He won the AO. And I'm really sorry about it, but it's too obvious that he's less of a player he was 12 months ago.

Remember the final last year, with a much more tired Rafa? With a less solid Rafa? Honestly, I admit anything can happen, no certainties, but just add 2 plus 2.

great post. Fed has been nothing short of phenominal on grass but this is the new Fed. new Fed has slightly diminished movement and he is a little out of confidence. and on top of that, he is under immense pressure.

this time around, the road to the title gets a little tougher. he got maximume mileage out of his serve last year and he had a pretty easy draw. he cant count on his serve anymore. it failed him at the Australian Open. it failed him at Indian Wells and then again in Miami.

Nadal took it compeltely apart at Roland Garros by breaking it 7 or 8 times.

bottom line: he enters Wimby slightly shaken and wounded. if he fails to win the grass warm-up event, it will be another psychological blow.

lets wait and see how his form is progressing on grass.

Clay Death
06-10-2008, 04:10 PM
I think it will be more like the match Roddick-Gasquet. Gasquet controlled all baseline rallies while Roddick just held his serve. Gasquet only broke Roddick twice in that match but held his own serve because Roddick was completely outplayed from the baseline. I cant see Roddick controlling baseline rallies against Nadal, but he can find a way to just hold his serve anyway and take set after set to tiebreaks where he is quite good.


i am not sure if Roddick can beat Nadal in a best of 5 sets match. if it was a very first match, Roddick could possibly take him out. we are talking quarters and Nadal will have acclimated to grass and the conditions by then.

lets also not forget that Roddick has had some shoulder and back troubles as of late.

Vida
06-10-2008, 08:22 PM
I'll slide in a bit if you don't mind...

Well Nadal is prime favorite imo. (like his grass game much) The momentum he is carrying is massive this year. Not only 'cause of FO - its happened before, but 'cause of Fed trashing. Its not big, I agree, but small things make difference at the top.

In another words - field saw what he did to Fed on clay, and are praying not to play him. Knowing he isn't the sort a guy who goes up than down, but is mentally rock solid, hes a lock on final four (IMO that is). I mean, sure big serve helps and all that, but rankings gap speak volumes about true difference in class. Its just reflection of how things were done in last couple of years - cupcake draw is non-existent (of course not exactly, but some things don't change just like that, esp when you bageled 12 time gs champ in such a fashion just couple of weeks before).

Than there's Fed. Ohhhhhh, Fedy, Fedy, Fedy .... I gotta say, if he blows at Wimby, *ahem* it gloom and doom. Just immagine the anti-hype, something Fed is afraid mostly I gather. So, taking Estoril (!) against retireing Davy alone this year, coupled with Feds 'habit' of momentum-riding last years, we conclude that the pressure is vast. Huge in fact, maybe even UNBEARABLE! I mean, he ate a bagel in a less-than-two-hour-gs-final for god sake. No way he is gonna forget it just like that. In that sense, I rate him as an underdog against Rafa, IF he gets there. IMO he will be dumped at semis or quarters depending on the draw.

Djoko - well, I suppose that what happened during clay season gives him significant ammount of confidence and some momentum. Basically he fulfilled all expectations, took one MS on clay (Rome), regardless whom he played there. Gave 'biggest' challenge to Nadal at the French. We all know he is an ambitious bloke, not likely to fold at the Slams, so he will be there, in contention. My take - slight favorite against Fed and slight underdog against Nadal.

Rest - Roddick, Murray, Gulbis (great player he will be I sense), maybe some journeyman a la Birdman or Sod. Little faith in Karlovic (not up to the task). Tsonga (is he playing btw?) ... Well see.

It will be very interesting. By the law of averages (what a dumb thing that is, lol) things will not go as they did in the past...

bokehlicious
06-10-2008, 08:29 PM
Than there's Fed. Ohhhhhh, Fedy, Fedy, Fedy .... I gotta say, if he blows at Wimby, *ahem* it gloom and doom. Just immagine the anti-hype, something Fed is afraid mostly I gather. So, taking Estoril (!) against retireing Davy alone this year, coupled with Feds 'habit' of momentum-riding last years, we conclude that the pressure is vast. Huge in fact, maybe even UNBEARABLE! I mean, he ate a bagel in a less-than-two-hour-gs-final for god sake. No way he is gonna forget it just like that. In that sense, I rate him as an underdog against Rafa, IF he gets there. IMO he will be dumped at semis or quarters depending on the draw.

:awww: Ouch... So you truly think Fed is garbage, I thought you were kidding, you evil! :mad: :bigcry:

Vida
06-10-2008, 08:44 PM
:awww: Ouch... So you truly think Fed is garbage, I thought you were kidding, you evil! :mad: :bigcry:

now now P.A. You know I like Fed very much. One should be objective though. (albeit slightly colorful though)

JediFed
06-10-2008, 09:05 PM
Fed's the fave till he loses at Wimbly.

Can't say Nadal's the fave just from his form on clay.

For all we know someone like Ancic or Gulbis could destroy him in the early rounds.

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 09:13 PM
Fed's the fave till he loses at Wimbly.

Can't say Nadal's the fave just from his form on clay.

For all we know someone like Ancic or Gulbis could destroy him in the early rounds.

I think this is the most sensible way of thinking about this.

Black Adam
06-10-2008, 09:18 PM
Do you people not get that Mentally JesusFed is gone? You will get the proof in the upcoming weeks.
Like someone said, it would be advisable for the Fedytards to retract their dep unnatural feelings for Fedy because there is a lot of heartache ahead.

Basically this is slamless year guys.

Vida
06-10-2008, 09:30 PM
I think this is the most sensible way of thinking about this.

it might be sensible, but is sheer sophistry.

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 09:40 PM
it might be sensible, but is sheer sophistry.

what do you mean?

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 09:41 PM
Do you people not get that Mentally JesusFed is gone? You will get the proof in the upcoming weeks.
Like someone said, it would be advisable for the Fedytards to retract their dep unnatural feelings for Fedy because there is a lot of heartache ahead.

Basically this is slamless year guys.

He may have had some downs, but it doesn't mean he's "mentally gone", or that it's going to carry over to Wimbledon. It's not the first time he's lost the French.

Vida
06-10-2008, 09:54 PM
what do you mean?

I mean that saying that he is a 'favorite until he loses' can be subjected to equal amount of ridicule as there is in saying it in the first place.

Look, I most certainly don't wont to paint a grim picture for you, if you're a :cool: Fed fan. Its not my intent. But objectively looking at things, he is due for a let-down at Wimby. Those things (fo final) stick with ya if you have any ambition, and Fed does. We all know its a mental game out there, so things are not rosy for Fed. All in all, I don't consider him favorite there, but Nadal. I can elaborate, but I would mostly be pointing to Estoril fact. So no need there I guess.

Doesn't mean I'm saying he CAN'T do it, of course, or esp he WON'T do it. Its just an odds thing.

Allez
06-10-2008, 09:55 PM
It's the end of the fed as we know it. Borg won 5 straight Wimbledon's and never won another one. Ever. Being a five time defending champion does not automatically make you the favourite. One has to take current form into account. Fed has never had such a dismal lead up to Wimbledon before. Claydeath is right. Listen to him.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Andy Roddick (his win over Fed this year matters)
4. Roger Federer (mentally very weary and half a step slow due to age)

Now I'm Federer's biggest fan ever but one should not ignore reality. I still get excited seeing him play and hope he wins every match, but I no longer expect him to win the big tournaments...hell he hasn't won a single big tournament this year and it will only get worse.

Black Adam
06-10-2008, 09:55 PM
He didn't just lose. He got thrashed. And his season so far indicates serious mental problems. Compare him to jesus fed and its all gone.

anon57
06-10-2008, 10:00 PM
It's the end of the fed as we know it. Borg won 5 straight Wimbledon's and never won another one. Ever. Being a five time defending champion does not automatically make you the favourite.
Borg only played one more Wimbledon final after he had won it 5 straights times, he retired after that. You're making it sound like he played a number of times but never again got close. But I agree that Federer's lead-up into Wimbledon has been anything but great according to his standards but we'll have to wait untill he plays on grass and at Wimbledon to see how it'll effect his play there. The most worrying is probably that he hasn't been able to really play the important points as well as he has in previous years.

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 10:06 PM
I mean that saying that he is a 'favorite until he loses' can be subjected to equal amount of ridicule as there is in saying it in the first place.

Look, I most certainly don't wont to paint a grim picture for you, if you're a :cool: Fed fan. Its not my intent. But objectively looking at things, he is due for a let-down at Wimby. Those things (fo final) stick with ya if you have any ambition, and Fed does. We all know its a mental game out there, so things are not rosy for Fed. All in all, I don't consider him favorite there, but Nadal. I can elaborate, but I would mostly be pointing to Estoril fact. So no need there I guess.

Doesn't mean I'm saying he CAN'T do it, of course, or esp he WON'T do it. Its just an odds thing.

I'm not a Fed fan. But you'll need to elaborate a bit more.

For starters, explain this sentence:

But objectively looking at things, he is due for a let-down at Wimby.

And explain how that's being objective.

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 10:12 PM
He didn't just lose. He got thrashed. And his season so far indicates serious mental problems. Compare him to jesus fed and its all gone.

I don't know what the thrashing will do. But you can't tell me Roger's that frail. I don't see what you mean with mental problems. He seems a bit tired, a bit slower, but I can't really see mental problems.

Yes, he's not JesusFed. Why should it mean that it's all gone. Look at the '98 Sampras.

Sure, Roger ≠ Pete, but why should Pete be able to win Wimbledon despite a sub-par performance prior to it, but Roger should not be able to?

I just don't see it.

Vida
06-10-2008, 10:23 PM
I'm not a Fed fan. But you'll need to elaborate a bit more.

For starters, explain this sentence:

And explain how that's being objective.

Well heres what I wrote one page earlier:

Than there's Fed. Ohhhhhh, Fedy, Fedy, Fedy .... I gotta say, if he blows at Wimby, *ahem* it gloom and doom. Just immagine the anti-hype, something Fed is afraid mostly I gather. So, taking Estoril (!) against retireing Davy alone this year, coupled with Feds 'habit' of momentum-riding last years, we conclude that the pressure is vast. Huge in fact, maybe even UNBEARABLE! I mean, he ate a bagel in a less-than-two-hour-gs-final for god sake. No way he is gonna forget it just like that. In that sense, I rate him as an underdog against Rafa, IF he gets there. IMO he will be dumped at semis or quarters depending on the draw.

...........

Im not a soothsayer, but the least I can do is point to the downward slope Fed is on this year. Sure, clay is not grass, but if he plays so-so against Rafa at MC and Hamburg (loosing to S&V Radek in between), and gets, well, obliterated at FO (GS) final - one can safely presume that not all mental connections are clicking as they did last year - when he barely won against Rafa at Wimby. Its a confidence thing.

marcRD
06-10-2008, 10:40 PM
He didn't just lose. He got thrashed. And his season so far indicates serious mental problems. Compare him to jesus fed and its all gone.

Was Sampras mentaly dead after he was bagelled and lost in straight sets against Kafelnikov in the french open?

JediFed
06-10-2008, 10:50 PM
I'm sorry, but I think it's crazy to say that Nadal is the favourite at Wimbly. You might as well say that Roddick is the favourite because he has a victory against Federer on hard courts.

I really don't understand this pessimism about Federer. For the last 3-4 months he has not only defended his points, but has increased them from last year.

Why would you say his form is less this year based on his results?

RagingLamb
06-10-2008, 11:14 PM
To me objectivity has to do with facts. So I've broken down your post as follows:

So, taking Estoril (!) against retireing Davy alone this year, coupled with Feds 'habit' of momentum-riding last years, we conclude that the pressure is vast. Huge in fact, maybe even UNBEARABLE! Assumption, reasonable, but still an assumption.

I mean, he ate a bagel in a less-than-two-hour-gs-final for god sake. Fact

No way he is gonna forget it just like that. Assumption

In that sense, I rate him as an underdog against Rafa IF he gets there. Conclusion (Opinion)

IMO he will be dumped at semis or quarters depending on the draw. Prediction (Opinion)

Im not a soothsayer, but the least I can do is point to the downward slope Fed is on this year. I'll take that as he has declined, and call that a Fact

Sure, clay is not grass Fact

but if he plays so-so against Rafa at MC and Hamburg (loosing to S&V Radek in between), and gets, well, obliterated at FO (GS) final - one can safely presume that not all mental connections are clicking as they did last year - when he barely won against Rafa at Wimby. Its a confidence thing.Assumption

--------------------------------

So taking the facts from your post, I'm left with roughly the following (please tell me where I've made a mistake):

"Roger has declined this year, and he had a very one-sided embarrassing loss at Roland Garros. Sure, clay and grass are two different surfaces, but"

here comes the conclusion:

"This means that he's an underdog against Rafa, that is if he even makes it to the final".

Here are two other facts:

1. Roger has won wimbledon 5 times, and
2. we don't really know how his recent decline and results will affect him on grass, since Wimbledon hasn't happened yet.

So based on facts alone (being objective); A) Roger is still very likely to make it to the final (based on 1 and 2 above), and B) if he gets there, he still has a great chance to win (record of others on grass, H2H records with those who has has played on grass).

If he meets Nadal there, I'm don't see how he's less likely to win, based on facts alone.

DDrago2
06-10-2008, 11:17 PM
Do you people not get that Mentally JesusFed is gone? You will get the proof in the upcoming weeks.
Like someone said, it would be advisable for the Fedytards to retract their dep unnatural feelings for Fedy because there is a lot of heartache ahead.

Basically this is slamless year guys.

From the beggining of this season I also felt that Federer is mentaly spent (it also happened to be coupled with that ilness, which made it even worse). But even so he can still win grand slams - he is good enough player not to be so heavily dependent on mental game as you think. I think Federer is able to win a GS without a mental edge

MrChopin
06-10-2008, 11:20 PM
if he has to play both Djokovic and Nadal back to back, he could be derailed.

Even if he needs to avoid Djokovic in the semis... that's not "one hell of a draw." And having to play tough players back to back is no problem for Fed... USO '07... MC '08.

Mr Chopin, I love your music, but really not your tennis analysis.

Grass is faster than IW, really it is.

Maybe you think Montreal 2007 and IW 2008 are more relevant here than their 2 latest meetings (important mentally because they are recent), their last year meeting on this same tournament, their last meeting on a real fast surface (MC) or maybe Novak's struggle (in all matches but one) last year in both Queens and Wimbledon?

Bazooka, I like my music too. I also like your gum.

I just don't think Nadal is has a 45% chance to win Wimbledon. I think a match with Djokovic will be quite close, especially as Djokovic has the dominant form on faster surfaces... Nadal got smoked at IW this year.

If Nadal gets to the semis, you said he'd be 75% to win the entire thing! I think his chances to beat Djokovic are probably only 50-55%. Nadal moves better has recently hit with amazing depth. He is not leaving balls short, so Djokovic will probably have to hit winners from the back of the court. Yet Djokovic will probably win more points on serve and can finish points more quickly on his forehand. Plus, Nadal won't have the time to plant himself in his backhand corner if Djokovic's dtl backhand is working.

This is of course if they both play each other. Neither one had dominant runs in '07, so I don't think it's a given that they'll both be in the semis.

Well, I can go to some degree into your fantasy and say that Roger is recovering a little. However you have to admit he is not in last year form. Not in serve, not in forehand, not in backhand, not in mental strenght. He took a set from Rafa last year in RG, and won him in Hamburg. He won the AO. And I'm really sorry about it, but it's too obvious that he's less of a player he was 12 months ago.

Remember the final last year, with a much more tired Rafa? With a less solid Rafa? Honestly, I admit anything can happen, no certainties, but just add 2 plus 2.

I don't know the ins and outs of his health, but I don't think Fed's played a healthy match on anything but clay this year. And again, even with this "out of form" streak, he managed to make it to as many clay finals as he did last year, even picking up an MM.

Losing AO while having mono means little. Rafa was in far better shape at Hamburg and far better form at RG.

Rafa is not guaranteed a birth in the final. He had trouble against several guys last year.

I'll slide in a bit if you don't mind...

Well Nadal is prime favorite imo. (like his grass game much) The momentum he is carrying is massive this year. Not only 'cause of FO - its happened before, but 'cause of Fed trashing. Its not big, I agree, but small things make difference at the top.

In another words - field saw what he did to Fed on clay, and are praying not to play him. Knowing he isn't the sort a guy who goes up than down, but is mentally rock solid, hes a lock on final four (IMO that is). I mean, sure big serve helps and all that, but rankings gap speak volumes about true difference in class. Its just reflection of how things were done in last couple of years - cupcake draw is non-existent (of course not exactly, but some things don't change just like that, esp when you bageled 12 time gs champ in such a fashion just couple of weeks before).

It was on clay... it was on clay... it was on clay! I mean, great, Rafa played out of his mind on his best surface and crushed Fed on his worst... does TMC '07 ring a bell?

And the whole "momentum" thing isn't an observable. We can all say "Rafa is super-pumped now" but is he? How do we know? And don't forget that Rafa got stretched to the limit several times last year. One might even say that he was fortunate against Youzhny.

And the players know that there is a difference between clay and grass. They know that Rafa is not as comfortable on grass as he is on clay.

Than there's Fed. Ohhhhhh, Fedy, Fedy, Fedy .... I gotta say, if he blows at Wimby, *ahem* it gloom and doom. Just immagine the anti-hype, something Fed is afraid mostly I gather. So, taking Estoril (!) against retireing Davy alone this year, coupled with Feds 'habit' of momentum-riding last years, we conclude that the pressure is vast. Huge in fact, maybe even UNBEARABLE! I mean, he ate a bagel in a less-than-two-hour-gs-final for god sake. No way he is gonna forget it just like that. In that sense, I rate him as an underdog against Rafa, IF he gets there. IMO he will be dumped at semis or quarters depending on the draw.

:spit:, momentum riding? It must have been the momentum of that third round RG '04 that carried him on to three clay finals in '06, three clay finals in '07, and three clay finals in '08? His career is a collection of lucky draws, mental midgets, weak era, and now momentum riding.

And of course you know that Fed won't be able to forget that RG final, even while at Wimbledon. He will probably think about it when he faces off against Djokovic in the semis and get choked up.

Maybe you can help me out here, since CD couldn't: who is going to beat Federer before the semis? Who is the big threat that will knock him out early?

Djoko - well, I suppose that what happened during clay season gives him significant ammount of confidence and some momentum. Basically he fulfilled all expectations, took one MS on clay (Rome), regardless whom he played there. Gave 'biggest' challenge to Nadal at the French. We all know he is an ambitious bloke, not likely to fold at the Slams, so he will be there, in contention. My take - slight favorite against Fed and slight underdog against Nadal.

No surprise here. Rafa = cruising confidence. Fed = crushed worm. Djokovic = did what was needed, confidence will make the next step! Seriously, what did Fed fail to do on clay? He has more points than Djokovic from clay, went farther than him at Hamburg, Monte Carlo, and RG, actually increased his clay points from '07.

Djokovic, predicting that he could challenge both on clay, lost to both Fed and Nadal. Wawrinka, not even top 10 at the time, was his best clay win. Yeah, he can hang that AMS trophy on his wall, but it got him no closer to beating Rafa or Fed.

Do you people not get that Mentally JesusFed is gone? You will get the proof in the upcoming weeks.
Like someone said, it would be advisable for the Fedytards to retract their dep unnatural feelings for Fedy because there is a lot of heartache ahead.

Basically this is slamless year guys.

Thanks for once again convincing us, but I guess that, as a ducktard, you do know a little about slamless years.

It's the end of the fed as we know it. Borg won 5 straight Wimbledon's and never won another one. Ever. Being a five time defending champion does not automatically make you the favourite. One has to take current form into account. Fed has never had such a dismal lead up to Wimbledon before. Claydeath is right. Listen to him.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Andy Roddick (his win over Fed this year matters)
4. Roger Federer (mentally very weary and half a step slow due to age)

Now I'm Federer's biggest fan ever but one should not ignore reality. I still get excited seeing him play and hope he wins every match, but I no longer expect him to win the big tournaments...hell he hasn't won a single big tournament this year and it will only get worse.

In time now: :yippee:"It's the end of the world as we know it.":yippee: I'm sure you're his biggest fan... but there are some of us that think he had a good clay season: clay MM, 2 clay AMS finals, and an RG final.


I'm sorry, but I think it's crazy to say that Nadal is the favourite at Wimbly. You might as well say that Roddick is the favourite because he has a victory against Federer on hard courts.

I really don't understand this pessimism about Federer. For the last 3-4 months he has not only defended his points, but has increased them from last year.

Why would you say his form is less this year based on his results?

"Goldfish have a memory of three seconds." GM is not far ahead.

Vida
06-10-2008, 11:58 PM
To me objectivity has to do with facts. So I've broken down your post as follows:

Assumption, reasonable, but still an assumption.

Fact

Assumption

Conclusion (Opinion)

Prediction (Opinion)

I'll take that as he has declined, and call that a Fact

Fact

Assumption

--------------------------------

So taking the facts from your post, I'm left with roughly the following (please tell me where I've made a mistake):

"Roger has declined this year, and he had a very one-sided embarrassing loss at Roland Garros. Sure, clay and grass are two different surfaces, but"

here comes the conclusion:

"This means that he's an underdog against Rafa, that is if he even makes it to the final".

Here are two other facts:

1. Roger has won wimbledon 5 times, and
2. we don't really know how his recent decline and results will affect him on grass, since Wimbledon hasn't happened yet.

So based on facts alone (being objective); A) Roger is still very likely to make it to the final (based on 1 and 2 above), and B) if he gets there, he still has a great chance to win (record of others on grass, H2H records with those who has has played on grass).

If he meets Nadal there, I'm don't see how he's less likely to win, based on facts alone.

I'm glad you (finally) made your case.

My reply -

1. that means ummmmm little. There is more weight in ones mind of what happened two weeks ago than what happened a year ago. Point - him eating a bagel in less that two hours in FO finals against a player whom many (including him) thought he CAN beat EFFECTS to the core.

Personally, I've been very critical of that 'complex' thing that was lingering in public space here and there. I've always thought that its more down to match-up matter more than choke or whatever, but latest score (again: score, not result) convinced me that Rafas game is beyond Feds celling. If we translate this from clay to grass, we should compute last years SCORE ... add age ... and what do we get? You conclude.

2. Yes we do. Or at least we can make an assumption. Viable that is, considering the (obvious) logic behing what has happened this year to fed (Estoril only). Hes confidence is on a downward spiral.

I guess it can be dissected into particles - mono, age, motivation, pressure, competition, losing aura, hype, personal issues ... but as far as Wimby is concerned, simply looking at Nadal last year and this year and Fed last year and this year, and last years finals .... its pretty clear that Nadal has upper hand in that match up - even on grass.

Bernard Black
06-11-2008, 12:47 AM
I'm glad you (finally) made your case.

My reply -

1. that means ummmmm little. There is more weight in ones mind of what happened two weeks ago than what happened a year ago. Point - him eating a bagel in less that two hours in FO finals against a player whom many (including him) thought he CAN beat EFFECTS to the core.

Personally, I've been very critical of that 'complex' thing that was lingering in public space here and there. I've always thought that its more down to match-up matter more than choke or whatever, but latest score (again: score, not result) convinced me that Rafas game is beyond Feds celling. If we translate this from clay to grass, we should compute last years SCORE ... add age ... and what do we get? You conclude.

2. Yes we do. Or at least we can make an assumption. Viable that is, considering the (obvious) logic behing what has happened this year to fed (Estoril only). Hes confidence is on a downward spiral.

I guess it can be dissected into particles - mono, age, motivation, pressure, competition, losing aura, hype, personal issues ... but as far as Wimby is concerned, simply looking at Nadal last year and this year and Fed last year and this year, and last years finals .... its pretty clear that Nadal has upper hand in that match up - even on grass.

Vida, I thought you were more knowledgable than this, I'm disappointed. How can you predict the Wimbledon outcome based on clay season form? It's ludicrous, quite frankly.

Please see my initial post in Clay Death's Nadal bandwagon thread to show just how this sort of knee-jerk reasoning is always futile.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:00 AM
I think this is the most sensible way of thinking about this.


or just a nonsesnsible way of praying, hoping, and wishing. not very impressive.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:10 AM
It's the end of the fed as we know it. Borg won 5 straight Wimbledon's and never won another one. Ever. Being a five time defending champion does not automatically make you the favourite. One has to take current form into account. Fed has never had such a dismal lead up to Wimbledon before. Claydeath is right. Listen to him.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Andy Roddick (his win over Fed this year matters)
4. Roger Federer (mentally very weary and half a step slow due to age)

Now I'm Federer's biggest fan ever but one should not ignore reality. I still get excited seeing him play and hope he wins every match, but I no longer expect him to win the big tournaments...hell he hasn't won a single big tournament this year and it will only get worse.


deep inside we are all Fed fans. he raised the bar and showed how discipline, drive, and determination can allow you dominate on consistent basis. he had the most complete game in the sport.

that said, Allez is quite right. all good things come to an end eventually. Borg won 5 Wimbeldons in a row as as well but was mentally spent and could win another.

i am afraid that Fed is mentally spent as well. you saw clearly what happened at Roland Garros. he had nothing left to give.

now he has managed to stay healthy and fit and he will still try and fight a little longer. i believe Wimby is his last stand. if runs into somebody like Djokovic or Nadal in the final, i dont think he gets by them time.

Djokovic has answered his fitness issues and there is nobody tougher mentally than the Clay Monster.

my key assumtion here: if Fed meets either Nadal or Djokovic in the finals or Djokovic in the semis. if both Nadal and Djokovic advance that deep, they will both be able to finish the job.

if you want to beat Nadal and Djokovic, better get them early. by the last round or the semis, they will have the momentum and the confidence going.

i am not sure who wins the Nadal vs Djokovic semi if it happens. the winner is clearly your champion based on the new realities and the new imperatives.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:19 AM
I'm glad you (finally) made your case.

My reply -

1. that means ummmmm little. There is more weight in ones mind of what happened two weeks ago than what happened a year ago. Point - him eating a bagel in less that two hours in FO finals against a player whom many (including him) thought he CAN beat EFFECTS to the core.

Personally, I've been very critical of that 'complex' thing that was lingering in public space here and there. I've always thought that its more down to match-up matter more than choke or whatever, but latest score (again: score, not result) convinced me that Rafas game is beyond Feds celling. If we translate this from clay to grass, we should compute last years SCORE ... add age ... and what do we get? You conclude.

2. Yes we do. Or at least we can make an assumption. Viable that is, considering the (obvious) logic behing what has happened this year to fed (Estoril only). Hes confidence is on a downward spiral.

I guess it can be dissected into particles - mono, age, motivation, pressure, competition, losing aura, hype, personal issues ... but as far as Wimby is concerned, simply looking at Nadal last year and this year and Fed last year and this year, and last years finals .... its pretty clear that Nadal has upper hand in that match up - even on grass.

this is what is affesting Fed:

1. pressure of race against time. he knows time is running out. he will be 27 soon.

2. pressure of both Djokovic and Nadal are improving.

3. small decline in his movement has more than proportional effect on his game.

4. small decline in the massive mental edge he held over the whole planet. Djokovic took him apart in Australia. Fish demolished him in Indian Wells. Even Roddick ran over him in Miami. Nalby humbled him last year in Madrid and then again in Paris.

2 more losses to Nadal in Monte Carlo and then again at Hamburg dont help. Nadal demolished him beyond recognition at Roland Garros. this affects his confidence adversely. he even said that he didnt exactly want to play the Nadal the next day after a match like the last one.

he just doesnt have anything going for now and may even lose in that warm-up event in Germany.


translation: he may be more vulnerable than meets the eye on all surfaces. there are some players who can push him now.

Vida
06-11-2008, 01:20 AM
Vida, I thought you were more knowledgable than this, I'm disappointed. How can you predict the Wimbledon outcome based on clay season form? It's ludicrous, quite frankly.

Please see my initial post in Clay Death's Nadal bandwagon thread to show just how this sort of knee-jerk reasoning is always futile.

Its simple - clay season form is not Mars season form. Its yesterdays season form. Such things affect ones mind to the bone, esp if you're gunning for goat and all that stuff.

Look at it this way: whats the capital reason Nadal barely lost to Fed last year - fatigue? From todays perspective, its irrelevant. He was there in the first place because he carried clay season momentum in it. It was a coin toss at the finals and fatigue only helped. Now its different. Fed loses in momentum battle, simply 'cause he has no momentum to carry. Thus Nadal is the favorite against Fed.

I mean, sure, he can do all there can be done to forget the ....ummmmm... 'humbling' he got on Sunday, but if he is sane enough (and all evidence shows he is) it can't be done. Lingering thoughts stick one way or the other, regardless of the surface. Its a given.

Someone mentioned Jesus Fed earlier. Personally I find that term repulsive and expression of worshiping context that is brought every once and a while, BUT there is something about it. He was destructive in his form. Near completely abominational in eradicating all opposition there was for years.

I'm going abstract here I know (sorry about it, but predictions always are), but when I project into Feds mind (challenge, but fun) I see no immediate exit from inevitable collection of thoughts that must be looming in his head - downward slide.

On personal note: Mind that I'm speaking about odds and not soothsaying business. I leave that to fanboys/girls.

JediFed
06-11-2008, 01:27 AM
Its simple - clay season form is not Mars season form. Its yesterdays season form. Such things affect ones mind to the bone, esp if you're gunning for goat and all that stuff.


Fair enough. How does that affect his confidence against the remainder of the tour? Is it a given that Nadal can reach the finals this year?


Look at it this way: whats the capital reason Nadal barely lost to Fed last year - fatigue? From todays perspective, its irrelevant. He was there in the first place because he carried clay season momentum in it. It was a coin toss at the finals and fatigue only helped. Now its different. Fed loses in momentum battle, simply 'cause he has no momentum to carry. Thus Nadal is the favorite against Fed.


On clay, sure. Grass is another ball of wax entirely.


I mean, sure, he can do all there can be done to forget the ....ummmmm... 'humbling' he got on Sunday, but if he is sane enough (and all evidence shows he is) it can't be done. Lingering thoughts stick one way or the other, regardless of the surface. Its a given.


Fair enough. How is this going to prevent an early exit from Nadal as we saw in Rome on his best surface? You have not stated your case.


I'm going abstract here I know (sorry about it, but predictions always are), but when I project into Feds mind (challenge, but fun) I see no immediate exit from inevitable collection of thoughts that must be looming in his head - downward slide.


Ah, so your empirical model is making a prediction. Are you so bold as to make the prediction as to when or where he will lose in Wimbly? Otherwise this is all just fluff.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:34 AM
Fair enough. How does that affect his confidence against the remainder of the tour? Is it a given that Nadal can reach the finals this year?



On clay, sure. Grass is another ball of wax entirely.



Fair enough. How is this going to prevent an early exit from Nadal as we saw in Rome on his best surface? You have not stated your case.



Ah, so your empirical model is making a prediction. Are you so bold as to make the prediction as to when or where he will lose in Wimbly? Otherwise this is all just fluff.

your unwillingness to even partly acknowledge what Vida is suggesting even more of a "fluff" and smoke and mirrors.

i have layed out the assumptions in my post which are closer to facts. the bottom line is that he may still walk into Wimby with nothing but that small Estoril title where he didnt even have to finish the match because he played a well known coward, Davydenko, who ran as soon it got hot in the kitchen.

he is not just out of his imperious form of the past but he is also out of confidence. now add to that the fact that he is under huge pressure.

Vida
06-11-2008, 01:47 AM
Fair enough. How does that affect his confidence against the remainder of the tour? Is it a given that Nadal can reach the finals this year?

Points difference between top three and the rest of the field show there is something going on there. There were many who said that Djoko, for example, would not reach SF RG, but he did - convincingly. Nadal is a lock on SF at Wimby IMO - I'm firm about it and I'm going on the line. Can't prove it 'cause my sack of beens is not with me, but what happened recently shows that guys below 3 are scared shitless of him - regardless of the surface.

On clay, sure. Grass is another ball of wax entirely.

It is of course. But there is a reason why this guy (whom I adore btw) reached finals on two last occasions. Its for another debate - Nadal on grass - and I've made my case couple of weeks ago on 'Djokovic all surface threat' thread that was deleted. I can write some more, but all in all - his clay game, coupled with natural attribute of grass, contributes to him being 'only' smaller version clay abomination we've seen. Don't believe me - check last years finals again.

Fair enough. How is this going to prevent an early exit from Nadal as we saw in Rome on his best surface? You have not stated your case.

Rome loss was partly down to fatigue/schedule and partly tank IMO. After effects of that decision can be seen on Sundays match. I was mistaken there earlier, 'cause that factor missed me so I predicted Fed over Nadal in Hamburg in tight two. But since than it hit me. It was a done deal and has no barring on grass.

Ah, so your empirical model is making a prediction. Are you so bold as to make the prediction as to when or where he will lose in Wimbly? Otherwise this is all just fluff.

Well of course its a jack. Every prediction is. I hope/thing you have enough brains to realize that, and that we can be fans of different players and have civil discussion. As for Fed 'losing' at Wimby - its a side point as far as I'm concerned. I most certainly have no intention into pushing some agenda here.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 02:18 AM
Points difference between top three and the rest of the field show there is something going on there. There were many who said that Djoko, for example, would not reach SF RG, but he did - convincingly. Nadal is a lock on SF at Wimby IMO - I'm firm about it and I'm going on the line. Can't prove it 'cause my sack of beens is not with me, but what happened recently shows that guys below 3 are scared shitless of him - regardless of the surface.



It is of course. But there is a reason why this guy (whom I adore btw) reached finals on two last occasions. Its for another debate - Nadal on grass - and I've made my case couple of weeks ago on 'Djokovic all surface threat' thread that was deleted. I can write some more, but all in all - his clay game, coupled with natural attribute of grass, contributes to him being 'only' smaller version clay abomination we've seen. Don't believe me - check last years finals again.



Rome loss was partly down to fatigue/schedule and partly tank IMO. After effects of that decision can be seen on Sundays match. I was mistaken there earlier, 'cause that factor missed me so I predicted Fed over Nadal in Hamburg in tight two. But since than it hit me. It was a done deal and has no barring on grass.



Well of course its a jack. Every prediction is. I hope/thing you have enough brains to realize that, and that we can be fans of different players and have civil discussion. As for Fed 'losing' at Wimby - its a side point as far as I'm concerned. I most certainly have no intention into pushing some agenda here.

Nadal can be beaten early as the grass is slicker and also it takes him a few matches to get rolling on grass. he has to get used to the surface and find his range and rhythm.

now if he gets to the quarters, he is probably a lock to be in the finals as long as he doesnt have to face Djokovic.

as for Fed, even the latest issue of "tennis" magazine is questioning his fleeting reign. i think the pressure of it all overtakes him at Wimby. it will weigh on him along with the improved field.

Mimi
06-11-2008, 02:50 AM
i still think its too early to said the mighty roger was gone before we saw him play on grass, roger on grass = rafa on clay = uinbeatable :cool:

Bernard Black
06-11-2008, 08:18 AM
Its simple - clay season form is not Mars season form. Its yesterdays season form. Such things affect ones mind to the bone, esp if you're gunning for goat and all that stuff.

Look at it this way: whats the capital reason Nadal barely lost to Fed last year - fatigue? From todays perspective, its irrelevant. He was there in the first place because he carried clay season momentum in it. It was a coin toss at the finals and fatigue only helped. Now its different. Fed loses in momentum battle, simply 'cause he has no momentum to carry. Thus Nadal is the favorite against Fed.

I mean, sure, he can do all there can be done to forget the ....ummmmm... 'humbling' he got on Sunday, but if he is sane enough (and all evidence shows he is) it can't be done. Lingering thoughts stick one way or the other, regardless of the surface. Its a given.

Someone mentioned Jesus Fed earlier. Personally I find that term repulsive and expression of worshiping context that is brought every once and a while, BUT there is something about it. He was destructive in his form. Near completely abominational in eradicating all opposition there was for years.

I'm going abstract here I know (sorry about it, but predictions always are), but when I project into Feds mind (challenge, but fun) I see no immediate exit from inevitable collection of thoughts that must be looming in his head - downward slide.

On personal note: Mind that I'm speaking about odds and not soothsaying business. I leave that to fanboys/girls.

Fair points.

Bear in mind Federer has arguably the second best results on clay this season, he's looking pretty good going into Wimbledon.

Your point about the beatdown is true though, we don't know how it will affect him as it's not happened much at all in an important match during his dominant era. You could be right and he has a mental block now, but I doubt it, the relief of grass has come at just the right time and it's a fresh start to his season (same as every year).

Bernard Black
06-11-2008, 08:28 AM
Nadal can be beaten early as the grass is slicker and also it takes him a few matches to get rolling on grass. he has to get used to the surface and find his range and rhythm.

now if he gets to the quarters, he is probably a lock to be in the finals as long as he doesnt have to face Djokovic.

as for Fed, even the latest issue of "tennis" magazine is questioning his fleeting reign. i think the pressure of it all overtakes him at Wimby. it will weigh on him along with the improved field.

Who is among this "improved field"? Truth is, there are hardly any great grass court players anymore, certainly none in Federer's league.

Nadal, of course, will be the main danger though, especially if he steamrolls through to the final.

Bazooka
06-11-2008, 10:50 AM
If Nadal gets to the semis, you said he'd be 75% to win the entire thing! I think his chances to beat Djokovic are probably only 50-55%. Nadal moves better has recently hit with amazing depth. He is not leaving balls short, so Djokovic will probably have to hit winners from the back of the court. Yet Djokovic will probably win more points on serve and can finish points more quickly on his forehand. Plus, Nadal won't have the time to plant himself in his backhand corner if Djokovic's dtl backhand is working.


I admit my 75% was a little high. Always in my mind, you know, he has a 60% chance against Djokovic, plus a 75% against Federer.

marcRD
06-11-2008, 11:07 AM
I admit my 75% was a little high. Always in my mind, you know, he has a 60% chance against Djokovic, plus a 75% against Federer.

What about his chances against lets say Mahut, Stepanek, Ancic, Youzhny, Berdych, Sderling, Llodra, Karlovic, Murray, Nalbandian, Roddick and other difficult opponents he could face as early as 1st round?

You cant say the early rounds have been easy for him before in wimbledon, can you?

He isnt unbeatable against almost anyone like Federer is. He can lose to anyone with a big serve and you know it.

Bazooka
06-11-2008, 11:20 AM
What about his chances against lets say Mahut, Stepanek, Ancic, Youzhny, Berdych, Sderling, Llodra, Karlovic, Murray, Nalbandian, Roddick and other difficult opponents he could face as early as 1st round?

You cant say the early rounds have been easy for him before in wimbledon, can you?

He isnt unbeatable against almost anyone like Federer is. He can lose to anyone with a big serve and you know it.

He's improved year by year in grass. Last year he defeated Fish and Berdytch easily, so let's see what happens now that he's leading the ATP returning stats (last year he didn't)

RagingLamb
06-11-2008, 01:29 PM
so would you agree that Nadal should not have won MC (or RG) based on his hard court performance, or should have at best been an underdog?

I'm glad you (finally) made your case.

My reply -

1. that means ummmmm little. There is more weight in ones mind of what happened two weeks ago than what happened a year ago. Point - him eating a bagel in less that two hours in FO finals against a player whom many (including him) thought he CAN beat EFFECTS to the core.

Personally, I've been very critical of that 'complex' thing that was lingering in public space here and there. I've always thought that its more down to match-up matter more than choke or whatever, but latest score (again: score, not result) convinced me that Rafas game is beyond Feds celling. If we translate this from clay to grass, we should compute last years SCORE ... add age ... and what do we get? You conclude.

2. Yes we do. Or at least we can make an assumption. Viable that is, considering the (obvious) logic behing what has happened this year to fed (Estoril only). Hes confidence is on a downward spiral.

I guess it can be dissected into particles - mono, age, motivation, pressure, competition, losing aura, hype, personal issues ... but as far as Wimby is concerned, simply looking at Nadal last year and this year and Fed last year and this year, and last years finals .... its pretty clear that Nadal has upper hand in that match up - even on grass.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:42 PM
Who is among this "improved field"? Truth is, there are hardly any great grass court players anymore, certainly none in Federer's league.

Nadal, of course, will be the main danger though, especially if he steamrolls through to the final.

there are a lot of improved players out there and then there is this "out of confidence" Fed.

among the most improved--2 years in a row--is Djokovic. Nadal is making small, incremental improvements. he showed that he can play just a little bit closer to the baseline. he also appears to have greater willingness to drive the backhand when the opportunity presents itself.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 01:58 PM
so would you agree that Nadal should not have won MC (or RG) based on his hard court performance, or should have at best been an underdog?

Nadal has won 27 titles and 22 of them are on clay. he has 4 Roland Garros titles. he was born to rule on clay. he is the high priest of death on clay.

what part of those 5 sentences you have the most trouble with.

his game is ideally suited for clay, NOT hard courts. he simply has severe limitaions on hard courts. his heavy topspin strokes require more time to manufacture/produce. he gets the time he needs on clay and the heavy topspin is very on clay.

his his heavy, deliberate topspin strokes also limit his ability to return well on hard courts. and quite obviously he has a very weak serve that players like Djokovic or even Davydenko can attack on hard courts so he is not really able to take care of his serve well on hard courts.

he won just one hard court title in 2007 and still won everything in sight on clay--Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, Roland Garros, and Stuttgart.

he has won nothing on hard courts so far this year and he destroyed everyone at Roland Garros. in addition, he pocketed Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Hamburg. all clay all the time.

we all know his game restricts him from doing better on hard courts. that is why i call him the Clay Monster.

Vida
06-11-2008, 02:16 PM
Nadal has won 27 titles and 22 of them are on clay. he has 4 Roland Garros titles. he was born to rule on clay. he is the high priest of death on clay.

what part of those 5 sentences you have the most trouble with.

his game is ideally suited for clay, NOT hard courts. he simply has severe limitaions on hard courts. his heavy topspin strokes require more time to manufacture/produce. he gets the time he needs on clay and the heavy topspin is very on clay.

his his heavy, deliberate topspin strokes also limit his ability to return well on hard courts. and quite obviously he has a very weak serve that players like Djokovic or even Davydenko can attack on hard courts so he is not really able to take care of his serve well on hard courts.

he won just one hard court title in 2007 and still won everything in sight on clay--Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, Roland Garros, and Stuttgart.

he has won nothing on hard courts so far this year and he destroyed everyone at Roland Garros. in addition, he pocketed Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Hamburg. all clay all the time.

we all know his game restricts him from doing better on hard courts. that is why i call him the Clay Monster.


Ah Clay Monster he is. Such complete devastation. This is a bit off topic, but I cant help but expressing huge appreciation for the guy. Always been a fan, but his latest endeavor - scorched Earth, simply broth to my mind what was said about him during pre-clay season. Those 'decline' claims that followed one-sided affair against Tsonga.

And he does what? Wipes the field like no other. With humility and respect on the side, finishing with a saucy bagel served to goat candidate.

I pray to God he remains healthy for years to come.

Vida
06-11-2008, 02:19 PM
so would you agree that Nadal should not have won MC (or RG) based on his hard court performance, or should have at best been an underdog?

Sorry, but your question makes no sense to me. CD nicely contributed to why Nadal is ruling clay and not HC. I'm merely pointing to the reasons why I see him as a prime grass candidate.

Vida
06-11-2008, 02:31 PM
Nadal can be beaten early as the grass is slicker and also it takes him a few matches to get rolling on grass. he has to get used to the surface and find his range and rhythm.

now if he gets to the quarters, he is probably a lock to be in the finals as long as he doesnt have to face Djokovic.

as for Fed, even the latest issue of "tennis" magazine is questioning his fleeting reign. i think the pressure of it all overtakes him at Wimby. it will weigh on him along with the improved field.

Well yeah, lots of things will depend on the draw. Its just that when it comes to grit I don't see anyone who can out him. And it matters with him. My biggest doubts were depending on his clay performance, weather it would show some cracks in his overall ability. I saw none.

Now if he faces Djoko in the semis (wouldn't be surprised), presently I give him slight edge over Djoko, but I'll reserve that estimation depending on Djokos performance to that point.

Fed, with reasonable draw can manage to built some mini-momentum that would boost him in the final rounds over Djoko (if he lands on his side). But for now, my overall conclusion is that he is concentrated on curing depression. Its not a big deal and best heal is consistency and convincing results, even against around 50 players. Hype would grow and he will do fine to reach finals (unless Djoko derails him). But than Im going for Nadal to take the whole thing.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 02:37 PM
Ah Clay Monster he is. Such complete devastation. This is a bit off topic, but I cant help but expressing huge appreciation for the guy. Always been a fan, but his latest endeavor - scorched Earth, simply broth to my mind what was said about him during pre-clay season. Those 'decline' claims that followed one-sided affair against Tsonga.

And he does what? Wipes the field like no other. With humility and respect on the side, finishing with a saucy bagel served to goat candidate.

I pray to God he remains healthy for years to come.

affirmative.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 03:43 PM
Well yeah, lots of things will depend on the draw. Its just that when it comes to grit I don't see anyone who can out him. And it matters with him. My biggest doubts were depending on his clay performance, weather it would show some cracks in his overall ability. I saw none.

Now if he faces Djoko in the semis (wouldn't be surprised), presently I give him slight edge over Djoko, but I'll reserve that estimation depending on Djokos performance to that point.

Fed, with reasonable draw can manage to built some mini-momentum that would boost him in the final rounds over Djoko (if he lands on his side). But for now, my overall conclusion is that he is concentrated on curing depression. Its not a big deal and best heal is consistency and convincing results, even against around 50 players. Hype would grow and he will do fine to reach finals (unless Djoko derails him). But than Im going for Nadal to take the whole thing.


the most important thing is that he (Clay Monster) pocketed a slam and emerged/escaped with no injuries. he is healthy for a change and that could mean some trouble if he can gain some confidence and momentum on grass. he knows as well as anyone that he could leave Wimby as #3 so look for him to fight.

i just love the way he is hitting his backhand. it has tremendous range. he can drive it or hit it with heavy topspin. he appears to have made some small improvements in his serve so that will go a long way on grass.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 04:20 PM
Who is among this "improved field"? Truth is, there are hardly any great grass court players anymore, certainly none in Federer's league.

Nadal, of course, will be the main danger though, especially if he steamrolls through to the final.


improved players:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Gulbis
4. Roddick
5. Isner
6. Murray


i expect Nalby, Ancic, and Karlovic to do some damage as well.

Gulbis, Nalby, and Karlovic are my dark horses to make the quarters.

Vida
06-11-2008, 04:46 PM
improved players:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Gulbis
4. Roddick
5. Isner
6. Murray


i expect Nalby, Ancic, and Karlovic to do some damage as well.

Very impressed with that lad. He might not necessarily make some big bang at Wimby due to burnout, but his game is up there. Huge ground game, serve in particular. Pop from the back, touch in front. DTL with precision and consistency, depth, power ... its all there. Maybe not agile enough to exercise everything he has, but big room for improvements. Seems like a cool guy also.

Hoping for Ancic to fulfill Gorans expectations. Little faith in Nalby (failed so many times) and Ivo.

Murray is interesting case. He does have big baggage on him, obviously, but seems to handle it nicely so far (seen some interview, so its just an impression). Will be rooting for him to go deep, and finally break 2nd week barrier. He's due I sense.

Also hoping ARods back will hold. Seen today he made some awkward move followed by grimace ...

TMJordan
06-11-2008, 04:47 PM
I think Mahut will be the most dangerous non seeded player, he can definatly make it to the 2nd week.

Will be interesting to see his draw.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 04:49 PM
Very impressed with that lad. He might not necessarily make some big bang at Wimby due to burnout, but his game is up there. Huge ground game, serve in particular. Pop from the back, touch in front. DTL with precision and consistency, depth, power ... its all there. Maybe not agile enough to exercise everything he has, but big room for improvements. Seems like a cool guy also.

Hoping for Ancic to fulfill Gorans expectations. Little faith in Nalby (failed so many times) and Ivo.

Murray is interesting case. He does have big baggage on him, obviously, but seems to handle it nicely so far (seen some interview, so its just an impression). Will be rooting for him to go deep, and finally break 2nd week barrier. He's due I sense.

Also hoping ARods back will hold. Seen today he made some awkward move followed by grimace ...

Gulbis needs to take out Murray tomorrow to show that he can run down a top player. even a closely contested match will do.

what he needs most is match wins and some added confidence. consistency will come in time. he has the goods. he just needs a little time to put it all together.

Vida
06-11-2008, 04:53 PM
Gulbis needs to take out Murray tomorrow to show that he can run down a top player. even a closely contested match will do.

what he needs most is match wins and some added confidence. consistency will come in time. he has the goods. he just needs a little time to put it all together.

I must watch that one. Didn't know they are scheduled, been off. Thanks for the info.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 05:07 PM
I must watch that one. Didn't know they are scheduled, been off. Thanks for the info.

should be a good match. i think Gulbis takes it in 3 sets.

Clay Monster has Kei Nishikori to deal with. he lost his doubles match so should be more focused on singles now. its tough to get used to grass in just 3 days but i think he should be able to overpower the newcomer.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 05:51 PM
He's improved year by year in grass. Last year he defeated Fish and Berdytch easily, so let's see what happens now that he's leading the ATP returning stats (last year he didn't)

that return of serve is going to be his biggest liability on grass. if they get him at all, it will be because he is not able to make much headway against their serve. quite a few players have big serves that should work well on grass.

at the Queens tournament, he is likely to play Karlovic if he gets by Kei Nishikori and Karlovic beats Gonzales. we will get a chance to find out if he can get a bit of a handle on big serves.

the stats you refer to apply pretty much to clay as he has 4 clay titles and zero hard court titles. for instance, he was basically breaking serve about 2/3 of the time at Roland Garros which is a really sick stat. he didnt give them a chance. he broke Fed something like 7 or 8 times.

RagingLamb
06-11-2008, 06:14 PM
Sorry, but your question makes no sense to me. CD nicely contributed to why Nadal is ruling clay and not HC. I'm merely pointing to the reasons why I see him as a prime grass candidate.

I'll rephrase the question: Based on Nadal's results during the HC season, what were your predictions about how he would fare on clay this year and why?

Vida
06-11-2008, 06:58 PM
I'll rephrase the question: Based on Nadal's results during the HC season, what were your predictions about how he would fare on clay this year and why?

I thought he would be a bit more bothered to achieve what he did. But basically FO was in the bag, as far as I was concerned. There was schedule issue involved also, so I wasn't sure he would repeat last years feat to exact, which actually happened (Rome). And I was expecting Fed to take Hamburg again and give bigger trouble at the FO finals. I mean Nadals clay domination was to be expected, I guess by most people. What I didn't factor in at the time was the level of intimidation the field was in against him, so his FO run is a slight surprise for me.

Look, me going for Rafa at Wimby is generally down to his confidence (drawn from clay season) and no health issues (at least that we know of) coupled with Feds confidence problems (mainly down to - only - Estoril fact and less than two hours FO final performance). I'm more uncertain what role Djoko will play in this, than what will happen if Rafa meets Fed in the finals, regardless of whom Djoko plays against. Sure, if draw makes it so that Nadal gets over-fatigued and Fed gets a cupcake, than Feds chances rise. But we don't know draw yet, so assumptions are on a more abstract level.

RagingLamb
06-11-2008, 07:45 PM
I thought he would be a bit more bothered to achieve what he did. But basically FO was in the bag, as far as I was concerned. There was schedule issue involved also, so I wasn't sure he would repeat last years feat to exact, which actually happened (Rome). And I was expecting Fed to take Hamburg again and give bigger trouble at the FO finals. I mean Nadals clay domination was to be expected, I guess by most people. What I didn't factor in at the time was the level of intimidation the field was in against him, so his FO run is a slight surprise for me.

o.k. that's consistent. consistency is all I was looking for.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 10:21 PM
I thought he would be a bit more bothered to achieve what he did. But basically FO was in the bag, as far as I was concerned. There was schedule issue involved also, so I wasn't sure he would repeat last years feat to exact, which actually happened (Rome). And I was expecting Fed to take Hamburg again and give bigger trouble at the FO finals. I mean Nadals clay domination was to be expected, I guess by most people. What I didn't factor in at the time was the level of intimidation the field was in against him, so his FO run is a slight surprise for me.

Look, me going for Rafa at Wimby is generally down to his confidence (drawn from clay season) and no health issues (at least that we know of) coupled with Feds confidence problems (mainly down to - only - Estoril fact and less than two hours FO final performance). I'm more uncertain what role Djoko will play in this, than what will happen if Rafa meets Fed in the finals, regardless of whom Djoko plays against. Sure, if draw makes it so that Nadal gets over-fatigued and Fed gets a cupcake, than Feds chances rise. But we don't know draw yet, so assumptions are on a more abstract level.

out of confidence is just one component of his troubles:

1. he is out of confidence

2. his form is not where it was last year at this time.
3. pressure of trying to defend his title at Wimby. this may be his only slam this year. this is a far cry from winning 75% of the slams.

4. surging Djokovic and resurging Nadal. he knows that Djokovic can play on all surfaces and that Nadal will be very dangerous if he gets to the quarters.

5. pressure of holding on to his domination of the sport and his #1 rank. he still takes comfort in knowing that he is still #1. this could change at the end of the year if he does not win at Wimby. Djokovic will be a huge factor at the U.S. Open and other hard court events this year.

6. presssure of race against time. he will be 27 soon and he knows his time is limited. French Open becomes nearly imposible now and so will near automatic runs at other slams. he is getting older and the field is improving and they generally do not fear him anymore.

this last element/component of his troubles may carry the most weight. there is simply too much pressure now and its coming from all directions. he has never been under this much pressure before. so far, he is not handling it very well. he appears to be in denial. for instance, he said that he liked his chances this time around at Roland Garros before the tournament started.

Clydey
06-11-2008, 10:25 PM
Gulbis needs to take out Murray tomorrow to show that he can run down a top player. even a closely contested match will do.



Still early days for Gulbis. He has a chance tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if he came away with the win. That, Muzzah is prone to bad days. If he has one, Gulbis is capable of taking advantage.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 10:31 PM
Still early days for Gulbis. He has a chance tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if he came away with the win. That, Muzzah is prone to bad days. If he has one, Gulbis is capable of taking advantage.

Gulbis has a monster serve. if he is really on with his serve, it could be a tough day at the office for Murray. its clearly the match of the day. Gulbis hits such a big ball that I expect Murray to be off balanced and without rhythm the whole match.

all Gulbis has to do is be consistent.

Clydey
06-11-2008, 10:38 PM
Gulbis has a monster serve. if he is really on with his serve, it could be a tough day at the office for Murray. its clearly the match of the day. Gulbis hits such a big ball that I expect Murray to be off balanced and without rhythm the whole match.

all Gulbis has to do is be consistent.

It's hardly that simple. Murray is the more accomplished player. Gulbis is still young.

If Muzzah plays well, he'll win. At least that's how I see it. He has more experience and more variety. Big serve, too, but can be inconsistent with it. He has been getting higher percentages of late, though. I expect him to serve and volley quite a bit, too.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 10:47 PM
I thought he would be a bit more bothered to achieve what he did. But basically FO was in the bag, as far as I was concerned. There was schedule issue involved also, so I wasn't sure he would repeat last years feat to exact, which actually happened (Rome). And I was expecting Fed to take Hamburg again and give bigger trouble at the FO finals. I mean Nadals clay domination was to be expected, I guess by most people. What I didn't factor in at the time was the level of intimidation the field was in against him, so his FO run is a slight surprise for me.

Look, me going for Rafa at Wimby is generally down to his confidence (drawn from clay season) and no health issues (at least that we know of) coupled with Feds confidence problems (mainly down to - only - Estoril fact and less than two hours FO final performance). I'm more uncertain what role Djoko will play in this, than what will happen if Rafa meets Fed in the finals, regardless of whom Djoko plays against. Sure, if draw makes it so that Nadal gets over-fatigued and Fed gets a cupcake, than Feds chances rise. But we don't know draw yet, so assumptions are on a more abstract level.

Vida check out these 2 articles i came across at fox sports dot com:

Second serves: In reality, Federer's got issuesby Zack Pierce, FOXSports.com



Updated: June 10, 2008, 2:35 PM EST 31 comments RSS blog email print In a world without Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer is unquestionably the greatest tennis player ever.

Analysis: Cronin: Just the start for Nadal?
Tennis Week: Ivanovic comes through

Others: VIDEO: Nadal does it again
VIDEO: Ivanovic wins first Slam
Cuevas, Horna win men's doubles
Bryan, Azarenka win mixed doubles
PHOTOS: Title matches | Early rounds
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He would have 15 Grand Slam wins (maybe 16). He'd be the three-time defending champion at the Monte Carlo Masters. And Novak Djokovic's win at the 2008 Australian Open would be the only Slam since the 2005 Aussie classic not won by tennis' best approximation of immortality.

That is assuming, of course, that this alternate universe doesn't contain another superhuman clay-court guru to pester Federer at every opportunity. Nadal has vanquished the world's top player in four straight French Opens (the last three times in the final, the semifinal in 2005) and of the last 11 tournaments that Federer has crossed the wire in second place, Nadal has been the winner in nine of them.

The fans at Philippe Chatrier were chanting Federer's name Sunday. In this alternate universe, it would have been to celebrate his record-breaking 15th (or 16th) Slam crown. In reality, they were just urging him to win a game against his clay Kryptonite.

But like it or not, Nadal does exist, and his surgical 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 championship win has raised new questions about tennis' previously undisputed king. We expected Nadal to win, but not like this.Maybe it's time to talk ourselves into a new tennis superhero.

It's probably a little crazy to use a clay-court win as an example that Nadal is more than just a clay-court specialist, but Sunday's shocker is too hard to ignore. Federer is no slouch on clay (as his alternate universe résumé can attest to). He has been ranked No. 1 in the world without interruption since February 2004. By all accounts he had pulled out of his early-year funk, winning a tournament and finishing second in two others (both to Nadal) in the last two months on clay, his least favorite surface.

And still, Nadal crushed him, not even letting Federer win a game in the decisive set. Federer hadn't lost a set 6-0 since a Wimbledon warm-up in 1999...when he was ranked 104th.

Flash back to Wimbledon 2007, where Nadal — continuing to improve his non-clay credentials — forces Federer to a fifth set on a court the Swiss star has dominated for five straight years. And were it not for a pair of ailing knees, Nadal just might have pulled the upset.
Federer struggles mightily to hold off a gimpy Nadal on grass. Nadal crushes Federer on clay.
Nadal, at 22, has four Grand Slam wins — all in Paris — and six total finals. That's three more wins and five more finals than Federer had at the same age. Nadal has four tournament wins in 2008. Federer has one. Granted, all four of Nadal's titles are on clay, but he also has two hard-court runner-up showings to Federer's zero. If Nadal is the king of clay and Federer the king of everything else, Nadal is certainly doing better at his job.
Is this the year Nadal stuns Federer at Wimbledon? Bjorn Borg doesn't think it's so far-fetched.

"If he survives the first two or three rounds at Wimbledon this year, then I pick Nadal to win Wimbledon," Borg told FOXSports.com contributor Matt Cronin. "He's playing really good on the grass. He's feeling very comfortable. The way he played last year, it was an unbelievable final. He was very unfortunate not to win that particular match."Maybe that 2007 Wimbledon was a sign of a new reality emerging. Nadal's getting better. Federer's stock is slipping. Nadal just needs that one big win to start to tip the scale and officially earn his place in the discussion.Off the clay, of course.



Seriously though, thanks for showing up, guys
Just how brilliant was Nadal? He won all seven matches in 21 straight sets and dropped just 41 games total for a paltry average of 1.95 games per set. That means his standard win was slightly better than 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 — a double break in every set. Included in that run were nine 6-1 sets and three bagels.

He felt so bad after stealing Federer's lunch money and sending an eager crowd home unhappy in Sunday's title match that he felt the need to apologize after winning the trophy.

"Roger, I'm sorry for the final," he said, according to the The Associated Press.

No worries, Rafa. We're sorry we had to waste your time with this.

Nadal leaves no doubt on clay; what about grass?by Matt Cronin, Special to FOXSports.com
Updated: June 9, 2008, 12:15 PM EST 25 comments RSS blog email print If there was a strong case to be made for how 12-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer could win the French Open and then almost unequivocally be called the greatest ever, Rafael Nadal muted all the arguments.

Analysis: Cronin: Just the start for Nadal?
Tennis Week: Ivanovic comes through

In the most impressive victory of his storied career on clay, Nadal won his fourth consecutive French Open with a devastating 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 victory over Federer on Sunday. "Rafa" is about as modest as they come, but he would admit who's the hombre supremo on clay courts.

"Doesn't matter if I'm humble or modest, the numbers say I am the best player in the world on clay for the last four years," Nadal said. "That is true. I am humble, but the numbers are the numbers."

The Swiss star was only in the match for a few moments, and those moments were fleeting. Nadal was the far superior player on the day, so much so that he made Federer look small and weak.

Bjorn Borg, the last man to win four consecutive French titles, said before the match that when he dominated Paris, he felt like the bigger man going on court. Just like the great Swede, Nadal loomed large — muscular, ultra-fast, super steady, and oh so bold when asked to take risks.

Federer had hired a new coach, Spaniard Jose Higueras, who had coached Michael Chang and Jim Courier to French crowns. But even with that keen advice, Federer's clay-court game doesn't match up against Nadal's. No shifts in strategies will work against the world's best because he has an answer for everything on dirt.[/B[B]]"I think I'm playing more inside the court, so not the typical two meters behind court, putting the balls with topspin," said Nadal, who didn't drop a set en route to the title. "For sure I am playing with topspin, but improving different things. Having so much slice, changing more directions. And with the backhand, sometimes putting more flat shots."Nadal spent the first set torturing Federer's one-handed backhand with his gigantic left-handed forehand, screaming his two-handed backhand crosscourt, and sharply cutting slice serves into the corners. He dared Federer to try and hit winners off his backhand side, to try to go too far to his left and launch forehands, and Federer could not respond. Nadal knew he had more beef off both sides.

Federer did very little on his serve, as Nadal bounced around in the center of the court and pummeled him side to side. Federer did try and come into net, but Nadal was so quick to react that before Federer closed, he either had to watch Nadal torch a shot past him, or attempt to pick up a dipping ball at his toes. There was little he could do.

"I don't know if it's got that much to do with great offense or great defense, it's just his movement on clay," Federer said. "It's just better than the rest. He plays like two forehands from the baseline, because he has an open stance on both sides. I can't do that, so I lose a meter or two here and there. So he's got a huge advantage in this aspect. His forehand is great, and he's very tough mentally. He hardly misses, and when he goes on the offensive, he plays it close to the line."
The second set saw a brief flurry from Federer, but that's all it was, even when Federer began to find the range on his whipping forehand, Nadal stood strong. At 3-3, Federer had his one great chance to put his mark on the match, holding a break point. But after chasing down a Nadal drop shot, Federer netted a backhand and his opportunity was gone as Nadal held. In the very next game, Nadal nailed a forehand to break the Swiss to 5-3 and Federer missed a backhand return to hand the set to the Spaniard, 6-3.

Six more games of Nadal sprints, Federer errors and reflex passes, and Nadal had completed his incredible run to the title while Federer had suffered his most sorry defeat at a major. But unlike in previous years, when Nadal has slid to the ground in celebration, the Spaniard merely trotted up to net and shook his foe's hand. He wasn't going to disrespect his friend.

"Given the way things occurred and given the relationship I have to Roger, I just didn't want to celebrate too much," Nadal said. "Today it was tough for Roger. I have very good relationship with him and I feel I have to be more respectful."

The statistics more than told the story of the day: Nadal ripped 46 winners and committed only seven unforced errors, a positive differential of 39 in a major final, surely one of the best in history. Federer, who committed 35 unforced errors, was only 18 out of 42 at the net, was broken eight times, and won only 34 percent of his service points. Nadal won 92 points to only 52 from Federer, about as a large a butt kicking as an all-time great has ever put on another.

"He no longer plays short balls as he did in the past," said Federer, who won the fewest games in his 173 Grand Slam matches. "You can no longer attack him on his forehand. He is getting much more aggressive, and it's becoming much more difficult. I tried to fight him, physically speaking, and points were not difficult for me but he was just much stronger than me today. I didn't want to give him any free points, but it's got nothing to do with mental state or physical state. He was just stronger."


Rafael Nadal's dominant win Sunday raises the question: Can he challenge Roger Federer at Wimbledon? (Christophe Ena / Getty Images)


Wimbledon upset brewing?
Both men face large questions going into Wimbledon, where Federer has beaten Nadal in the last two finals and hopes to break Borg's record of five straight titles.

Federer's confidence has to be nearly shattered, because he knows that Nadal is improving. Because he knows Nadal may just bring the same lightning-quick defense-to-offense game to the lawns this year, and not let go of chances in the fifth set like he did in 2007.

Nadal may never be a great hard-court player because he prefers sliding into his groundstrokes on the run rather than coming to a dead stop. But he can skid on grass, too, and while it doesn't have the same feel as clay, he doesn't seem to have problems picking up low balls and passing with precision going side to side. His serve, while not huge, is almost as impossible to attack on grass as it is on clay.

But when asked about where his head is, Federer dove into his new friend Pete Sampras' mindset — bury the clay and let the grass grow. That's what seven-time Wimbledon champion Sampras used to do after sinking in red soot.

"I've beaten Rafa 6-0 in a set," said Federer. "I've beaten him in finals before. I've beaten him also quite comfortably. Didn't really give me the edge on clay against him. I haven't lost on grass for, what is it, five years now? I still definitely feel very strong about my chances and being the big favorite, going into grass. It's so far away, grass and clay, that losing in four or five, no chance like today, I don't think it has a big effect on me mentally."


Only time will tell whether that's true. Federer has hung two bagels on Nadal before, once in the first set of his 6-0, 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 victory over the Spaniard in the 2006 Wimbledon final, but that match was much closer than Sunday's contest. Of all their 13 finals, Sunday was the most lopsided defeat.

Amazingly, Federer, who still may go down as the greatest ever (he's just two titles short of Pete Sampras' all time Slam mark of 14), but he took the worst defeat game-wise at a Slam final since John McEnroe busted up Jimmy Connors 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 at Wimbledon in 1984 and the worst defeat ever for a No. 1 in a major final. He did one game better than American Brian Gottfried at 1977 Roland Garros, who was wasted 6-0, 6-3, 6-0 by Guillermo Vilas. He also did two games better than the aged Ken Rosewall at the 1974 U.S. Open, where he was smoked 6-1, 6-0, 6-1 by Connors.

In fact, Borg tabbed Nadal to come away with the Wimbledon victory this year, even before the Federer match.

"If he survives the first two or three rounds at Wimbledon this year, then I pick Nadal to win Wimbledon," Borg said. "He's playing really good on the grass. He's feeling very comfortable. The way he played last year, it was an unbelievable final. He was very unfortunate not to win that particular match. He had chances. And I'm sure after losing a match like that he wants to come back and try to win that championship."

If Nadal manages to win Wimbledon, he'd be the first male player since, of course, Borg, in 1980, to go back to back in Paris and London (Borg did it three times). He's been highly touted before after smashing the field in Paris, but he has come up just short. His main rival expects to meet him there and Nadal is hoping that in a month's time, he isn't crying in the shower like last year when he couldn't pull off the Paris-London double.

"I don't think there is any distance getting bigger or shorter," said Nadal, who is 28-0 at the French Open. "We are players almost equal on clay. He proved that he was the best player in the world. There are times when he is not as fit as me and other moments when he is more fit than I am. There are moments when he has confidence; others when I have confidence. It goes back and forth. And I'm not saying I'm getting close to him on grass. I need to prepare and get there with confidence. I need to go through the first rounds, and then you start realizing that you can play well."

star
06-11-2008, 11:18 PM
Nadal, at 22, has four Grand Slam wins — all in Paris — and six total finals. That's three more wins and five more finals than Federer had at the same age.

I think it's been demonstrated time and again that this age comparison stuff is not useful as any kind of predictor.

Clay Death
06-11-2008, 11:23 PM
I think it's been demonstrated time and again that this age comparison stuff is not useful as any kind of predictor.


negative. its a one hell of a predictor if its coupled with staggering results. its talent, drive, focus, and unrelenting will with results.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 01:19 AM
Fed now admits that Nadal`s 2 hander gives him an "unfair advantage". he said its like Nadal has "2 forehands with an open stance". he said he is at a disadvantage.

what would he say after Djokovic torments his weaker wing with his even more lethal 2 hander that can cut though the court and penetrate with venom.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 03:24 AM
memo to glennmyrni character: these 2 articles i have posted are required reading for you. there will be a short quiz tomorrow. do not disappoint Clay Death.

Bernard Black
06-12-2008, 11:19 AM
memo to glennmyrni character: these 2 articles i have posted are required reading for you. there will be a short quiz tomorrow. do not disappoint Clay Death.

:lol:

Deadpan to the end :worship:

ZakMcCrack
06-12-2008, 11:42 AM
Fed now admits that Nadal`s 2 hander gives him an "unfair advantage". he said its like Nadal has "2 forehands with an open stance". he said he is at a disadvantage.

what would he say after Djokovic torments his weaker wing with his even more lethal 2 hander that can cut though the court and penetrate with venom.


Sorry dude, but your words aren't for sooth. Misquotation on purpose? Fed was speaking of a disadvantage - he never even mentioned the term "unfair", did he? So the question should rather be, what words are you going to put into Federer's mouth at the next opportunity?

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 12:30 PM
Sorry dude, but your words aren't for sooth. Misquotation on purpose? Fed was speaking of a disadvantage - he never even mentioned the term "unfair", did he? So the question should rather be, what words are you going to put into Federer's mouth at the next opportunity?


i hear you. check the articles again. you are entitled to your opinion.

i think Fed is in denial. he just cant figure out or solve Nadal.

Machiavelli
06-12-2008, 12:32 PM
i hear you. check the articles again. you are entitled to your opinion.

i think Fed is in denial. he just cant figure out or solve Nadal.

He can not figure him out, but guys like YOuzhny, Tsonga, and the likes of Berdych or Roddick are going to do it with some ease...

And Djoko has no chance in Wimbledon, Karanusic was even a to strong task for him, grass is his least favourite surface, and he won't have a cake draw this year ;)

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 12:38 PM
He can not figure him out, but guys like YOuzhny, Tsonga, and the likes of Berdych or Roddick are going to do it with some ease...

And Djoko has no chance in Wimbledon, Karanusic was even a to strong task for him, grass is his least favourite surface, and he won't have a cake draw this year ;)

he took out Tsonga in Indian Wells and Berdych in Miami. Youzhny basically has to catch Nadal worn out and spent. Nadal is too consistent for him now on any surface.

Roddick`s progress will be kept an eye on. lets see how far he goes at Wimby. he can ride his serve for a while.

ZakMcCrack
06-12-2008, 12:50 PM
i hear you. check the articles again. you are entitled to your opinion.

i think Fed is in denial. he just cant figure out or solve Nadal.

Well, the latter posting wasn't about my opinion, it was a declarative statement as a response to a false quotation of yours...but - as always - I'm totally open to conviction...just present me the passage where Fed calls it "unfair"..;-)

Still, the articles you brought up aren't entirely persuasive on their own as the following extract proves evidence of:
[...]His (talking 'bout Nadal) serve, while not huge, is almost as impossible to attack on grass as it is on clay.[...]

It certainly should be much more rewarding and promising to attack his 2nd serve on grass than on clay, isn't it?

Besides, I agree with you: He cannot figure him out on clay...but to come (or hit...) through Nadal on clay is at least as tough as to weather a mightful sandstorm...

Vida
06-12-2008, 01:09 PM
out of confidence is just one component of his troubles:

1. he is out of confidence

2. his form is not where it was last year at this time.
3. pressure of trying to defend his title at Wimby. this may be his only slam this year. this is a far cry from winning 75% of the slams.

4. surging Djokovic and resurging Nadal. he knows that Djokovic can play on all surfaces and that Nadal will be very dangerous if he gets to the quarters.

5. pressure of holding on to his domination of the sport and his #1 rank. he still takes comfort in knowing that he is still #1. this could change at the end of the year if he does not win at Wimby. Djokovic will be a huge factor at the U.S. Open and other hard court events this year.

6. presssure of race against time. he will be 27 soon and he knows his time is limited. French Open becomes nearly imposible now and so will near automatic runs at other slams. he is getting older and the field is improving and they generally do not fear him anymore.

this last element/component of his troubles may carry the most weight. there is simply too much pressure now and its coming from all directions. he has never been under this much pressure before. so far, he is not handling it very well. he appears to be in denial. for instance, he said that he liked his chances this time around at Roland Garros before the tournament started.

From one pov there was no other option for him than to say he liked his chances. After all much was at stake, that 'goat' stuff and the fact that he has a legitimate ambition. So I don't give much to the fact that he was raising his own chances in public at the time. Nothing else was expected.

But what did trouble me was that 'complex' admission on Eurosport (followed by incredibly awkward 'apology' from Mats Willander). He said something like 'I had complex but not any more' and Borg and Mats and many other bought it saying he has a good chance and it will be a competitive finals. And than what happens? Totally out of focus performance.

Personally, I was never down to that 'mental' talk that was going on - simply though that Nadal is a convincingly better player on clay and that translates into their H2H. Thus Fed was able to rule the globe without being affected by his inability to take clay season along. But what happened at the French signals that the fact many people believed he can take FO affected Fed to the core that he ate a bagel in 1 h. 48 min. match.

So, as far as FO is concerned, I dont believe he was in denial, he really believed it - but that was too much and he folded (unfortunately - It was a terribly one-sided affair). I guess pressure cooker was too hot.

On the other hand, it signals clearly of his present ability to handle expectations and his own dependability on what public perception followed closely by media-hype is. That might have mayor impact on Wimby. Much is on the line.

Personally, I think it would be best for him to alter his approach and be less 'in denial' in public. Simply acknowledge whats going on, that this season is very different than those in the past. It would be a big relief I gather. Problem is that there is not enough time for that transition, and his ego is - understandably - to big to swallow such approach alteration.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 01:28 PM
From one pov there was no other option for him than to say he liked his chances. After all much was at stake, that 'goat' stuff and the fact that he has a legitimate ambition. So I don't give much to the fact that he was raising his own chances in public at the time. Nothing else was expected.

But what did trouble me was that 'complex' admission on Eurosport (followed by incredibly awkward 'apology' from Mats Willander). He said something like 'I had complex but not any more' and Borg and Mats and many other bought it saying he has a good chance and it will be a competitive finals. And than what happens? Totally out of focus performance.

Personally, I was never down to that 'mental' talk that was going on - simply though that Nadal is a convincingly better player on clay and that translates into their H2H. Thus Fed was able to rule the globe without being affected by his inability to take clay season along. But what happened at the French signals that the fact many people believed he can take FO affected Fed to the core that he ate a bagel in 1 h. 48 min. match.

So, as far as FO is concerned, I dont believe he was in denial, he really believed it - but that was too much and he folded (unfortunately - It was a terribly one-sided affair). I guess pressure cooker was too hot.

On the other hand, it signals clearly of his present ability to handle expectations and his own dependability on what public perception followed closely by media-hype is. That might have mayor impact on Wimby. Much is on the line.

Personally, I think it would be best for him to alter his approach and be less 'in denial' in public. Simply acknowledge whats going on, that this season is very different than those in the past. It would be a big relief I gather. Problem is that there is not enough time for that transition, and his ego is - understandably - to big to swallow such approach alteration.


excellent post. he really should just keep his mouth shut and just let his racquet do the talking. and you are right. why put extra pressure on yourself when you know you are handling it well.

aroofnow
06-12-2008, 01:37 PM
I speculate that, as usual, the tournament will be ruined by rain. There should have been roofs on the 2 show courts ages ago. After all, Halle has had a roof for nearly 20 years. Since then, with Wimbledon it's normally been one of two feeble excuses, either the difficulty of having a roof with grass, or inadequate retractable roof technology. The All England club should be leading the way with this type of technology instead of reacting 20 years too late to the blindingly obvious. The main reason it hasn't is because of a very weak senior management, most of whom owe their positions not to their ability, but to their family backgrounds and social connections.

As for the tennis, I fear that Federer's grand slam winning days are over, and that the obnoxious and disrespectful Nadal (aswell as his deliberate time wasting, you don't ask for Hawkeye just as your opponent is serving for the next point, as he did in last year's final) will win.

krystlel
06-12-2008, 01:41 PM
I speculate that, as usual, the tournament will be ruined by rain. There should have been roofs on the 2 show courts ages ago. After all, Halle has had a roof for nearly 20 years. Since then, with Wimbledon it's normally been one of two feeble excuses, either the difficulty of having a roof with grass, or inadequate retractable roof technology. The All England club should be leading the way with this type of technology instead of reacting 20 years too late to the blindingly obvious. The main reason it hasn't is because of a very weak senior management, most of whom owe their positions not to their ability, but to their family backgrounds and social connections.

As for the tennis, I fear that Federer's grand slam winning days are over, and that the obnoxious and disrespectful Nadal (aswell as his deliberate time wasting, you don't ask for Hawkeye just as your opponent is serving for the next point, as he did in last year's final) will win.
:lol: At your username being "a roof now" and then making an introductory post like this as if you registered on the board just to talk about the need for tournaments to have roofs (not suggesting that you did though).

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 01:41 PM
I speculate that, as usual, the tournament will be ruined by rain. There should have been roofs on the 2 show courts ages ago. After all, Halle has had a roof for nearly 20 years. Since then, with Wimbledon it's normally been one of two feeble excuses, either the difficulty of having a roof with grass, or inadequate retractable roof technology. The All England club should be leading the way with this type of technology instead of reacting 20 years too late to the blindingly obvious. The main reason it hasn't is because of a very weak senior management, most of whom owe their positions not to their ability, but to their family backgrounds and social connections.

As for the tennis, I fear that Federer's grand slam winning days are over, and that the obnoxious and disrespectful Nadal (aswell as his deliberate time wasting, you don't ask for Hawkeye just as your opponent is serving for the next point, as he did in last year's final) will win.


welcome to the forums aroofnow.

Vida
06-12-2008, 01:56 PM
Vida check out these 2 articles i came across at fox sports dot com:

.
.
.
.


Thanks. Yeah, if he gets a kind draw and starts rolling, it will be really tough to stop him.

One of the reasons for it is in the difference in class between top 3 and rest of the field. Guys who meet them in quarters have extra burden of being aware that next opponent is likely to be another monster. That said, I'm really amazed how Djokovic got into that discussion. Huge balls that guy has, not to mention game.

Biggest trouble for Nadal are - as was noted - big servers. But going for him is that there are few with good returns out there, while I gather he improved on return department. So it usually goes down to grit and guts, esp now that grass is even slower. And Nadal has no equal there. Besides, he is oblivious of choke, and chokers are galore. That should bode him well in early rounds.

Vida
06-12-2008, 02:01 PM
I speculate that, as usual, the tournament will be ruined by rain. There should have been roofs on the 2 show courts ages ago. After all, Halle has had a roof for nearly 20 years. Since then, with Wimbledon it's normally been one of two feeble excuses, either the difficulty of having a roof with grass, or inadequate retractable roof technology. The All England club should be leading the way with this type of technology instead of reacting 20 years too late to the blindingly obvious. The main reason it hasn't is because of a very weak senior management, most of whom owe their positions not to their ability, but to their family backgrounds and social connections.

As for the tennis, I fear that Federer's grand slam winning days are over, and that the obnoxious and disrespectful Nadal (aswell as his deliberate time wasting, you don't ask for Hawkeye just as your opponent is serving for the next point, as he did in last year's final) will win.

...that takes exactly 88 seconds to retract.

aroofnow
06-12-2008, 02:03 PM
:lol: At your username being "a roof now" and then making an introductory post like this as if you registered on the board just to talk about the need for tournaments to have roofs (not suggesting that you did though).


I've got plenty of thoughts about the players but you're right in one sense - my main bugbear with the game is its resistance to anything new that will clearly improve it. For instance, Hawkeye has eliminated the vast majority of player dissent regarding bad calls, yet you still have the farcical situation at the French Open of umpires running down onto the court and relying on marks in the surface to decide whether a ball is in or out. It's the same with roofs. Instead of looking for excuses (and that's what they are) not to have them, all 4 grand slam tournaments should do whatever it takes to have them. When Wimbledon finally gets its roof, I assume next year, and people see the difference in having continuous play (at least on TV) they will wonder why on Earth it wasn't done years ago.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 02:08 PM
Thanks. Yeah, if he gets a kind draw and starts rolling, it will be really tough to stop him.

One of the reasons for it is in the difference in class between top 3 and rest of the field. Guys who meet them in quarters have extra burden of being aware that next opponent is likely to be another monster. That said, I'm really amazed how Djokovic got into that discussion. Huge balls that guy has, not to mention game.

Biggest trouble for Nadal are - as was noted - big servers. But going for him is that there are few with good returns out there, while I gather he improved on return department. So it usually goes down to grit and guts, esp now that grass is even slower. And Nadal has no equal there. Besides, he is oblivious of choke, and chokers are galore. That should bode him well in early rounds.


affirmative. Clay Monster just has to find a way to do 2 things:

1. get past his first 5 matches

2. limit time spent on the court. there will be plenty of rain delays and plenty of waiting around in the locker rooms. he doesnt need to make this worse by having matches that last over the course of 3 days. he has to put them away and get off the court. this gives him the luxury of rest and hit sessions.

krystlel
06-12-2008, 02:10 PM
I've got plenty of thoughts about the players but you're right in one sense - my main bugbear with the game is its resistance to anything new that will clearly improve it. For instance, Hawkeye has eliminated the vast majority of player dissent regarding bad calls, yet you still have the farcical situation at the French Open of umpires running down onto the court and relying on marks in the surface to decide whether a ball is in or out. It's the same with roofs. Instead of looking for excuses (and that's what they are) not to have them, all 4 grand slam tournaments should do whatever it takes to have them. When Wimbledon finally gets its roof, I assume next year, and people see the difference in having continuous play (at least on TV) they will wonder why on Earth it wasn't done years ago.
Well I might have agreed with you a couple of years ago but they are already in the process of building a roof at Wimbledon, it's just a shame that it takes so long. What is it - 2012 when it's due to finish? Since they are doing it on an existing facility, it is understandable to some extent that it takes longer than building a stadium from scratch that has a roof although probably not that long.

As for the French Open, I don't see the ball mark checking to be a big problem, I think it is relatively accurate. I'd much rather the non-claycourt tournaments start including Hawkeye on more and more outside courts. Also, they should investigate getting better lighting at the French Open so that they don't have to suspend play due to darkness. It just sounds terrible that they should need to stop play because of something like that.

leng jai
06-12-2008, 02:28 PM
I love that any post that is agrees with CD is automatically given his seal of approval and qualifies as an "excellent post".

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 02:36 PM
I love that any post that is agrees with CD is automatically given his seal of approval and qualifies as an "excellent post".


negative. when its a reasonable and objective post, it must be given some sense of approval here and there.

i am not a politician so i wont bother shaking everybody`s hand.

PiggyGotRoasted
06-12-2008, 03:43 PM
affirmative. Clay Monster just has to find a way to do 2 things:

1. get past his first 5 matches

2. limit time spent on the court. there will be plenty of rain delays and plenty of waiting around in the locker rooms. he doesnt need to make this worse by having matches that last over the course of 3 days. he has to put them away and get off the court. this gives him the luxury of rest and hit sessions.
I agree.
I love that any post that is agrees with CD is automatically given his seal of approval and qualifies as an "excellent post".
I agree.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 03:55 PM
I agree.

I agree.


me too. i agree. good post.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 06:01 PM
I agree.

I agree.

i like people who agree with me. here are the players to watch for Wimby:

1. Djokovic--the usual suspect for semis
2. Nadal--usual suspect for semis but if he gets that far, the title belongs to him.
3. Nalby--watch out. he could take somebody important out.
4. Gulbis--quarters material
5. Fed--questionable form. somebody like Nalby or Karlovic could take him out.
6. Karlovic
7. Roddick--he may be good for quarters but that is about it.

Clydey
06-12-2008, 06:13 PM
i like people who agree with me. here are the players to watch for Wimby:

1. Djokovic--the usual suspect for semis
2. Nadal--usual suspect for semis but if he gets that far, the title belongs to him.
3. Nalby--watch out. he could take somebody important out.
4. Gulbis--quarters material
5. Fed--questionable form. somebody like Nalby or Karlovic could take him out.
6. Karlovic
7. Roddick--he may be good for quarters but that is about it.

Here are mine:

Djokovic
Nadal
Federer
Murray/Roddick
Karlovic
Gasquet (if he gets his act together)

Don't see Gulbis making an impression this year. He got found out today by a rusty Muzza. Maybe next year for him.

Clay Death
06-12-2008, 06:15 PM
Here are mine:

Djokovic
Nadal
Federer
Murray/Roddick
Karlovic
Gasquet (if he gets his act together)

Don't see Gulbis making an impression this year. He got found out today by a rusty Muzza. Maybe next year for him.


looks like we are pretty much on the same track. i just dont have too much confidence in Gasquet. it doesnt take him long to blow a gasket.

Clydey
06-12-2008, 06:18 PM
looks like we are pretty much on the same track. i just dont have too much confidence in Gasquet. it doesnt take him long to blow a gasket.

Gasquet is a mixed bag. One wonders if he'll ever put it together consistently. That said, I do feel he's a threat to anyone if he has one of his good days. I'm encouraged by his win over Ancic today.

Allez
06-12-2008, 06:21 PM
out of confidence is just one component of his troubles:

1. he is out of confidence

2. his form is not where it was last year at this time.
3. pressure of trying to defend his title at Wimby. this may be his only slam this year. this is a far cry from winning 75% of the slams.

4. surging Djokovic and resurging Nadal. he knows that Djokovic can play on all surfaces and that Nadal will be very dangerous if he gets to the quarters.

5. pressure of holding on to his domination of the sport and his #1 rank. he still takes comfort in knowing that he is still #1. this could change at the end of the year if he does not win at Wimby. Djokovic will be a huge factor at the U.S. Open and other hard court events this year.

6. presssure of race against time. he will be 27 soon and he knows his time is limited. French Open becomes nearly imposible now and so will near automatic runs at other slams. he is getting older and the field is improving and they generally do not fear him anymore.

this last element/component of his troubles may carry the most weight. there is simply too much pressure now and its coming from all directions. he has never been under this much pressure before. so far, he is not handling it very well. he appears to be in denial. for instance, he said that he liked his chances this time around at Roland Garros before the tournament started.

Sadly all too true :sad: