Which upset is more likely tomorrow? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

dmit424
06-05-2008, 08:11 PM
Mind you, I posed the question in a chat with Garber on ESPN today, at http://*****.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20784#june5

***** = p r o x y .... not sure why they blanked that out.

It is the 8th question from the bottom. He said he thinks Monfils winning is more likely. Interesting.


Here is the exchange:
Dmitry (Pittsburgh, PA): Greg, In your view, which upset is more likely: Djokovic over Nadal, or Monfils over Federer? Thank you.

Greg Garber: (12:51 PM ET ) Dmitry (any relation to Tursinov?): Actually, call me crazy, but I'd say Monfils has a better chance. He's got the big strokes AND he retrieving ability to hang with Federer. The way Nadal is going, Djokovic will be lucky to get a set.

r2473
06-05-2008, 08:17 PM
I would one is as likely as the other..........

Check "The Weather Channel" and see what the temperature is supposed to be in hell on Friday.

Andi-M
06-05-2008, 08:57 PM
Monfils over Fed

ASP0315
06-05-2008, 09:04 PM
most likely monfils over federer.
Nole has 0.00000000 % chances of winning.

Outfielder
06-05-2008, 09:12 PM
Both or none.

Djokovic always plays big finals against mugs.
This year: Tsonga, Fish, Wawrinka, ...

Clara Bow
06-05-2008, 09:15 PM
I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins. :(

Clay Death
06-05-2008, 09:24 PM
I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins. :(

negative. Nole is toast tomorrow and he knows it. couldnt care less about the girly man. he has 12 slams and that is enough. Nadal will slam the door shut on him here forever in the finals. consider the damn "window" for Fed closed here for good. i am tired of hearing about the bloody window anyway.

scarecrows
06-05-2008, 09:28 PM
on betfair

Nadal 1.25
Federer 1.11

dmit424
06-05-2008, 10:22 PM
on betfair

Nadal 1.25
Federer 1.11

Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean? :worship:

scarecrows
06-05-2008, 10:25 PM
Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean? :worship:

that means that, according to bookmakers and to gamblers, Federer is bigger favourite to win his match than Nadal. So Djokovic's chance to cause the upset is bigger than Monfils', always according to bookmakers and gamblers

Montego
06-05-2008, 10:26 PM
Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean? :worship:

Basically it means that accoring to the odds-setters (on Betfair the odds are set not by the odds-makers, but by the punters) - Nadal has 80% chances to win, while Fed has 90% :)

dmit424
06-05-2008, 10:27 PM
I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins. :(

No worries, not much of an NHL fan... In fact, I'm embarrassingly out of the know on the Penguins... Lol, we moved to Pittsburgh from Cincinnati a few couple ago, and people at my university, when they found out I'm Russian, would always tell me how great Malkin is... I was like, "Yeah, yeah, he's good." That's all I would say (because I didn't know who Malkin was) and so eventually someone was like, "Dmitry... you really have no idea who Malkin is, do you?" ... "Umm... Nope, I do not :) "

dmit424
06-05-2008, 10:33 PM
Ah, alright, thanks for the betting explanation, guys. According to my statistics, here are some more odds then (if Fed has a 90% of winning and Nadal an 80%, as according to those sites):

Chance of Nadal/Federer final: 72%
Chance of Federer/Djokovic final: 18%
Chance of Nadal/Monfils final: 8%
Chance of Djokovic/Monfils final: 2%

Yes, looks like a Nadal/Federer final.

GlennMirnyi
06-05-2008, 10:39 PM
Monfils is a huge mug. His chance for tomorrow is about 5.36423x10^-89.

Faker's chance are the limit of that with x instead of 89 when x is close to infinite.

tangerine_dream
06-05-2008, 10:44 PM
From the ESPN chat:

Bonnie: Bull through is an excellent image. Nadal has gored all the would-be matadors so far.

Love that. :lol:

*edit*

Bad news for Roger. Bud Collins just picked him to win over Monfils.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24969547/

:scared:

groundstroke
06-05-2008, 10:46 PM
Monfils over Federer.

Jimnik
06-06-2008, 01:12 AM
If Fish can defeat Fed in a hardcourt SF then why not Monfils on clay? But considering this is a slam with best-of-5, I would say these odds are a bargain:

on betfair

Nadal 1.25
Federer 1.11

RagingLamb
06-06-2008, 01:29 AM
From the ESPN chat:

Bonnie: Bull through is an excellent image. Nadal has gored all the would-be matadors so far.

Love that. :lol:

*edit*

Bad news for Roger. Bud Collins just picked him to win over Monfils.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24969547/

:scared:

I've now put all my life savings on Monflis.

ha ha. Jackpot.

Fedex
06-06-2008, 01:33 AM
From the ESPN chat:

Bonnie: Bull through is an excellent image. Nadal has gored all the would-be matadors so far.

Love that. :lol:

*edit*

Bad news for Roger. Bud Collins just picked him to win over Monfils.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24969547/

:scared:

As long as Bud didn't pick Roger to win RG againhe should be fine. His predictions for Wimbledon and RG the last two years are as follows:

2006 RG: Federer over Nadal
2006 WB: Nadal over Federer
2007 RG: Federer over Nadal
2007 WB: Nadal over Federer

Burrow
06-06-2008, 03:05 AM
Djokovic over Nadal, no way a guy ranked outside the top 50 is going to beat Federer motivated at his highest and healthy. Earlier in the season he was ill...

Djokovic is a very good player on every surface, he has a chance again Nadal, he will definately believe he can win today.

MacTheKnife
06-06-2008, 03:21 AM
Let's see we have #2 facing #3 in the world, and #1 in the world facing #59 in the world. Yea, I'll have to give that one some thought..

Louche
06-06-2008, 03:26 AM
Maybe the crowd can help Monfils....a lot, but not enough to win. He is in over his head.

Mimi
06-06-2008, 03:35 AM
don't consider Joker over nadal a big upset, after all, he is no.3 and just won Rome, i am certain that there is no way Monfils could beat roger, unless roger's tummy goes wrong after eating too much Macchikens with Mirka :devil:

Nadal_Fanatic
06-06-2008, 03:38 AM
Both matches will be in straight sets. Fed/Nadal Final once again.

Knightmace
06-06-2008, 04:34 AM
Djokovic over Nadal although it won't happen.

Sunset of Age
06-06-2008, 06:32 AM
Both matches will be in straight sets. Fed/Nadal Final once again.

Straight sets I'm not so sure about. But there's no question about who will be the winner in either match.

zeleni
06-06-2008, 07:15 AM
I agree with majority of posters...

:)

Ivanatis
06-06-2008, 07:18 AM
Djokovic over Nadal

Art&Soul
06-06-2008, 07:20 AM
Joker over Nadull :)

zcess81
06-06-2008, 09:38 AM
If Nadal were to somehow lose today there would be mass Nole-hater suicide on MTF :)

bokehlicious
06-06-2008, 09:42 AM
If Fish can defeat Fed in a hardcourt SF then why not Monfils on clay? But considering this is a slam with best-of-5, I would say these odds are a bargain:

True, Roger even got bagelled by Spadea, Monfils winning wouldn't be that of an upset :shrug:

bokehlicious
06-06-2008, 09:43 AM
If Nadal were to somehow lose today there would be mass Nole-hater suicide on MTF :)

And the Serbtrolls would gloat about it for years to come... :yawn: :zzz:

Becker's Volleys
06-06-2008, 09:50 AM
As imperious as Nadal is (on clay) it's more likely that Novak might beat him than Fed lose to Monfils (no disrespect meant as Monfils has had a very fine tourno indeed). I still can't see Nadal not making this final, though.