Realistically: Can Djokovic beat Nadal? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Realistically: Can Djokovic beat Nadal?

Langers
06-01-2008, 03:49 PM
Because I seriously don't want to see Federer win the FO and while I probably like Djokovic more than Rafa, I really doubt Djokovic's ability to beat Federer on clay, just due to the mental aspect.

IMO Djokovic is playing well enough to beat Nadal, but my fear is that he'll beat Rafa but falter at the last hurdle. So that begs the question, do you believe he has what it takes to defeat Nadal?

Sunset of Age
06-01-2008, 03:51 PM
No.

Ivanatis
06-01-2008, 03:53 PM
I think he can.

He will, however, need to have a good day and Rafa a bad one.

finishingmove
06-01-2008, 03:53 PM
bo3 match - 45% chance
bo5 match - 25% chance

Albop
06-01-2008, 03:53 PM
No.

vucina
06-01-2008, 03:54 PM
No.

No?

scoobs
06-01-2008, 03:54 PM
I very much doubt it.

FedFan
06-01-2008, 03:54 PM
No.

tennis2tennis
06-01-2008, 03:54 PM
he'll have to have his A game and hope rafa has his C game then maybe! The problem with Nole will be stamina, if he really has a breathing problem I don't see him slugging it out in a 5 setter!

Albop
06-01-2008, 03:54 PM
No?

No

piksi
06-01-2008, 03:56 PM
I think that he can beat him but I doubt that he will. Golden retriever is very, very good at what he does on clay. In order just to have a chance - Novak has to be very aggressive and patient at the same time. He has to be ready to hit some extra shots and win a single point over and over again. Novak doesn't lack confidence which is important.

ASP0315
06-01-2008, 03:56 PM
No
He might chicken out i mean retire in the middle of the match to save himself of getting embarresed. :lol:

Manon
06-01-2008, 03:57 PM
Opener - you're bored? 100.000.000.000 threads like this, totally useless.

HarryMan
06-01-2008, 03:58 PM
He wont beat Rafa (not yet) but he will tire the shit out of him for Roger. It depends whether Roger takes advantage of that in the final or chokes it away like he did in the Hamburg final.

*Ljubica*
06-01-2008, 04:00 PM
Yes - of course he can :)

Admittedly, he would have to play at the very top of his level, and Nadal would have to have a "bad day at the office", so I don't think it's very likely :sad: But he's a professional and the current Number 3 in the world, and has beaten Nadal before (albeit not on clay), so of course he has a chance - and certainly a much better chance than most :)

BigJohn
06-01-2008, 04:01 PM
To beat Nadal, you have to fight to the end and not quit. So it really does not look like this is going to happen.

Langers
06-01-2008, 04:02 PM
I think his defence is just as good as Nadal. Well maybe that's a stretch, but it's getting very close between the two. He gets everything back these days. And his offensive game is just as good as Nadal's. Serve is superior. So all that's to stop him is realising he has to win 3 sets? The mental side is his biggest enemy.

rocketassist
06-01-2008, 04:05 PM
Nadal on Monte Carlo/RG clay- unbeatable.

Nadal in straights, easily.

l_mac
06-01-2008, 04:06 PM
Realistically, no.

But anything could happen. Like most people have said, it would take Nole's A game for at least 3 sets and Rafa having a bad day.

Petrovic
06-01-2008, 04:06 PM
I think that Joker can beat Nadal but i doubt it will happen this year in RG.
I just think Joker is not playing his best tennis at the moment.
And for somebody to beat Nadal on clay must be in TOP FORM.

NO, Nadal wins in 4.

star
06-01-2008, 04:07 PM
It's a big ask, but if Nadal is suffering for whatever reason, Djokovic can do it.

It's another big ask for Nadal to beat Djokovic and Federer back to back. :sad:

l_mac
06-01-2008, 04:07 PM
I think his defence is just as good as Nadal. Well maybe that's a stretch, but it's getting very close between the two. He gets everything back these days. And his offensive game is just as good as Nadal's. Serve is superior. So all that's to stop him is realising he has to win 3 sets? The mental side is his biggest enemy.

He can't move on clay like Nadal can, so his defence on clay is never going to be as good.

Langers
06-01-2008, 04:07 PM
I think you are underestimating Nole. He is an absolute gun, even on clay, and he will be a huge test for Rafa.

elessar
06-01-2008, 04:08 PM
bo3 match - 45% chance
bo5 match - 25% chance

45% chance on clay (even bo3)are you kidding me :spit:

l_mac
06-01-2008, 04:08 PM
It's another big ask for Nadal to beat Djokovic and Federer back to back. :sad:

Federer will lose to Benneteau. No! Ginepri.

Branimir
06-01-2008, 04:09 PM
I very much doubt it. I would love it to happen, but Djokovic doesn't have enough fitness to beat Nadal. He has the game, but not stamina. Djokovic has energy for 10-15 shoots rally and then he does stupid dropshot or he makes unforced error. Federer couldn't beat Nadal on clay when he was at his best, so I can't see Djokovic doing it.

elessar
06-01-2008, 04:10 PM
Federer will lose to Benneteau. No! Ginepri.

You think so :sad:

Branimir
06-01-2008, 04:10 PM
Nadal already beat Djokovic and Federer back to back last year, and he almost done it in Wimbledon too.

Aurora
06-01-2008, 04:10 PM
I think his defence is just as good as Nadal. Well maybe that's a stretch, but it's getting very close between the two. He gets everything back these days. And his offensive game is just as good as Nadal's. Serve is superior. So all that's to stop him is realising he has to win 3 sets? The mental side is his biggest enemy.
See Nadal return that serve that seemed invincible today and then think again, my friend. Standing 2 meters behind the baseline the ball will go to the other side between serve- and baseline bouncing meters high.

l_mac
06-01-2008, 04:11 PM
I think you are underestimating Nole. He is an absolute gun, even on clay, and he will be a huge test for Rafa.

You said realistically.

Realistically, Nadal is a better claycourt player than Novak and, added to that, the best of 5 format suits him.

Realistically he would be a test, but he wouldn't win.

Not to say he has no chance, but the most likely outcome is a Nadal victory.

Maybe your question should have been - How much of a chance does ... ?

anon57
06-01-2008, 04:11 PM
I doubt Djokovic will be able to defeat Nadal at RG this year, it'll take his absolute best for three out of five sets and than Nadal to be off his game. But if he does manage to defeat Nadal in the semis I don't see why he wouldn't be able to win the final either

It's another big ask for Nadal to beat Djokovic and Federer back to back. :sad:
Nadal did that last year at RG, Djokovic does seem to be playing better this year but still if Nadal has to face them back to back again he's able to do it again

dam0dred
06-01-2008, 04:11 PM
I doubt it, but as someone rooting for Fed I hope he can take him to like 10-8 in the fifth. :-P

scoobs
06-01-2008, 04:13 PM
You said realistically.

Realistically, Nadal is a better claycourt player than Novak and, added to that, the best of 5 format suits him.

Realistically he would be a test, but he wouldn't win.

Not to say he has no chance, but the most likely outcome is a Nadal victory.

Maybe your question should have been - How much of a chance does ... ?
Maybe the question should have been

"How can I change reality so that most people believe Djokovic WILL beat Nadal in the semi-final?"

scoobs
06-01-2008, 04:14 PM
I doubt it, but as someone rooting for Fed I hope he can take him to like 10-8 in the fifth. :-P
Absolutely. Perfect result for me - 16-14 in the fifth and both of them on drips.

Perhaps their SF is rain delayed too so they have to play Saturday and then the final on Sunday in cold, heavy, damp conditions.

Not too much to ask is it? :)

elessar
06-01-2008, 04:14 PM
Absolutely. Perfect result for me - 16-14 in the fifth and both of them on drips.

Perhaps their SF is rain delayed too so they have to play Saturday and then the final on Sunday in cold, heavy, damp conditions.

Not too much to ask is it? :)

I don't see why it wouldn't happen :scratch: it'd be only fair I think.

Allez
06-01-2008, 04:14 PM
No ways. I'm watching the Verdasco match and I fail to see how anyone can beat a fully fit and healthy Nadal on this surface.

Langers
06-01-2008, 04:15 PM
If Nadal is going to lose the title I don't think it's going to be because of playing Djokovic and Federer B2B. He is unbelievably fit and could play all day. He is a workhorse who doesn't seem to get fatigued.

Aurora
06-01-2008, 04:23 PM
If Nadal is going to lose the title I don't think it's going to be because of playing Djokovic and Federer B2B.
Then what is?

He is unbelievably fit and could play all day. He is a workhorse who doesn't seem to get fatigued.
Every human body can fail - what made Federer win in Hamburg last year? for me, the answer is fatigue by Nadal (whether purely physical or also mentally is debatable)

star
06-01-2008, 04:25 PM
I doubt Djokovic will be able to defeat Nadal at RG this year, it'll take his absolute best for three out of five sets and than Nadal to be off his game. But if he does manage to defeat Nadal in the semis I don't see why he wouldn't be able to win the final either

Nadal did that last year at RG, Djokovic does seem to be playing better this year but still if Nadal has to face them back to back again he's able to do it again

I hope you are right, but to do it this year is a BIG ask. Of course, it is possible, but it will also be very difficult. Nadal's challenge should not be minimized. He's not bionic. He's a human being who feels fatigue and pain and stress. It is extremely difficult to win RG four times in a row. I think a look at history tells one what an extraordinary accomplishment that would be.

Deivid23
06-01-2008, 04:27 PM
Yes and I think you will see it in a few days´ time

Langers
06-01-2008, 04:28 PM
Then what is?


Every human body can fail - what made Federer win in Hamburg last year? for me, the answer is fatigue by Nadal (whether purely physical or also mentally is debatable)
Well, you have a point, but it's slightly different don't you think? He drove himself into the ground last year during that stretch. Every man has a breaking point, that was his.

As for point 1, fatigue won't do it, Federer finally playing to his peak and not choking would do it. Not that I can see that happening though.

I'm more concerned about Djokovic beating Nadal than I am Federer.

Corey Feldman
06-01-2008, 04:28 PM
More chance of Aliens taking over the world next week

l_mac
06-01-2008, 04:28 PM
I hope you are right, but to do it this year is a BIG ask. Of course, it is possible, but it will also be very difficult. Nadal's challenge should not be minimized. He's not bionic. He's a human being who feels fatigue and pain and stress. It is extremely difficult to win RG four times in a row. I think a look at history tells one what an extraordinary accomplishment that would be.

:hug: :hug:

Exactly. Winning 3 in a row was a huge, and mostly overlooked, achievement. Winning 4 would be phenomenal.

He's under a lot of extra stress this year. His ranking is under threat, every presser he is asked about the situation with the scheduling. Every presser he is asked about the situation with the Spanish Federation. It's a lot for him to have on his shoulders.

bokehlicious
06-01-2008, 04:30 PM
Yes and I think you will see it in a few days´ time

:haha: :haha: :haha:

Aurora
06-01-2008, 04:34 PM
Yes and I think you will see it in a few days´ time :hug: chin up!

Guga_fan
06-01-2008, 04:34 PM
In Roland Garros I would say Nole's chances are between 1% and 3%, he would have to serve like a monster, even better than he did in Australian Open this year, he would also have to be very patient, be fully fit and win in straight sets. In other words, its almost impossible for him to beat Rafa in this FO.

Aurora
06-01-2008, 04:36 PM
I'm more concerned about Djokovic beating Nadal than I am Federer.
yup, me too. Federer proved in Hamburg he is far behind the mental barrier and won't climb over the barb wire on clay unless Nadal makes a huge hole in it.

Garfman5
06-01-2008, 04:36 PM
On clay, no...on all other surfaces he WILL beat Nadal:)

Eden
06-01-2008, 04:37 PM
I think you are underestimating Nole. He is an absolute gun, even on clay, and he will be a huge test for Rafa.

We have seen him challenging Rafa on clay in Hamburg. Same was with Hewitt there last year. Do you know the result of the Nadal-Hewitt match in RG a few days later?

What was so breathtaking at Djokovic's performances so far in Paris? It will be nice if he is able to challenge Nadal in a SF, but I would be surprised if he wins more than 1 set.

Roland9
06-01-2008, 04:37 PM
Exactly. Winning 3 in a row was a huge, and mostly overlooked, achievement. Winning 4 would be phenomenal.

Indeed.

That's also one of the reasons why I'd love to see another Federer vs Nadal final (unlike some maybe).. Such an epic match it would be - whoever wins, we will witness a historical moment.

anon57
06-01-2008, 04:38 PM
I hope you are right, but to do it this year is a BIG ask. Of course, it is possible, but it will also be very difficult. Nadal's challenge should not be minimized. He's not bionic. He's a human being who feels fatigue and pain and stress. It is extremely difficult to win RG four times in a row. I think a look at history tells one what an extraordinary accomplishment that would be.

It is a difficult task for Nadal I'm not disputing that but I think he's capable of it, and if he does manage to win RG for a fourth consecutive time it'll be a phenomenal accomplishment.

Johnny Groove
06-01-2008, 04:39 PM
Djokovic will be lucky to get a set

Aurora
06-01-2008, 04:39 PM
What was so breathtaking at Djokovic's performances so far in Paris? Making his opponents seem like midgets. oh no wait :tape: they were.

star
06-01-2008, 04:40 PM
It is a difficult task for Nadal I'm not disputing that but I think he's capable of it, and if he does manage to win RG for a fourth consecutive time it'll be a phenomenal accomplishment.

:yeah:

MaryX
06-01-2008, 04:41 PM
The question is, do I realy want him to take Nadal and then meet Federer tired and emotionally exhausted , who would on the other side, be fully confident knowing Djokovic is much better match up for him and his chances of winning RG?So, do I want Fed to win RG?Not very much.But, will Nole beat Nadal?I don't think so.But, I am sure that he is sure he can.

star
06-01-2008, 04:43 PM
The question is, do I realy want him to take Nadal and then meet Federer tired and emotionally exhausted , who would on the other side, be fully confident knowing Djokovic is much better match up for him and his chances of winning RG?So, do I want Fed to win RG?Not very much.But, will Nole beat Nadal?I don't think so.But, I am sure that he is sure he can.

It is definitely possible.

But if he beats Nadal, I hope he wins RG. :) :)

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-01-2008, 04:50 PM
It is definitely possible.

But if he beats Nadal, I hope he wins RG. :) :)

Like I said on the other thread - how ironic it would be if the haters' new anti-Fed hope handed Fed the career grand slam by taking out Nadal. :)

Unfortunately I don't thnk it's going to happen.

Nadal has by far the worst draw of the three but he is probably going to win anyway.

piksi
06-01-2008, 04:55 PM
Djokovic will be lucky to get a set

Nadal is too good on clay to have luck decide a set. If Novak wins a set it will be hard earned and not lucky

star
06-01-2008, 05:01 PM
Like I said on the other thread - how ironic it would be if the haters' new anti-Fed hope handed Fed the career grand slam by taking out Nadal. :)

Unfortunately I don't thnk it's going to happen.

Nadal has by far the worst draw of the three but he is probably going to win anyway.

You know, there are reasons people like Djokovic that have nothing to do with Federer. Djokovic and Nadal are two of my favorites. Naturally, if Djokovic beats Nadal (which would make me sad), I want to see Djokovic win RG -- regardless of who he plays in the final.

So to mimic you, how ironic would it be if Federer didn't even reach the final when so many Fed fans are hoping for Nadal to stumble with his difficult draw and difficult schedule.

Adler
06-01-2008, 05:01 PM
No

Fed=ATPTourkilla
06-01-2008, 05:09 PM
You know, there are reasons people like Djokovic that have nothing to do with Federer. Djokovic and Nadal are two of my favorites. Naturally, if Djokovic beats Nadal (which would make me sad), I want to see Djokovic win RG -- regardless of who he plays in the final.

So to mimic you, how ironic would it be if Federer didn't even reach the final when so many Fed fans are hoping for Nadal to stumble with his difficult draw and difficult schedule.

I don't have any problem with genuine fans. The Serb-tards all back their man which is fine by me.

It's the haters who bandwagon every player they think can beat Federer I would laugh at.

I would add - look at the first post in the thread for an example. A guy who prefers Djokovic to Nadal but wants Nadal to go through because he is guaranteed to stop Federer in the final whereas Djokovic is not.

arm
06-01-2008, 05:15 PM
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

It's unlikely but possible. However I don't agree that Nadal has to be in a reaaaally bad day for it to happen.

No ways. I'm watching the Verdasco match and I fail to see how anyone can beat a fully fit and healthy Nadal on this surface.

I only watched 2/3 games of the match (Eurosport :mad:) but all I was able to watch was a :silly: Verdasco way too scared of Nadal. :shrug:

star
06-01-2008, 05:18 PM
I don't have any problem with genuine fans. The Serb-tards all back their man which is fine by me.

It's the haters who bandwagon every player they think can beat Federer I would laugh at.

Oh, I see. The choices are either being a serb-tard or a fed-hater.n :lol: :lol:

That shows such a lack of imagination.

Djokovic is a wonderful player and has a captivating personality. These are the reasons I like him. Others may disagree, and that's ok with me. But, it's sort of narrow-minded to imagine that one can like Djokovic only because he is a serb or is capable of beating Federer.

habibko
06-01-2008, 05:23 PM
how ironic would it be if Federer didn't even reach the final when so many Fed fans are hoping for Nadal to stumble with his difficult draw and difficult schedule.

Federer's chances to not reach the final are smaller than Djokovic beating Nadal in SF, to elaborate:

Fed not making the final: 0.1%
Djoko beating Nadal: 1%
djoko beating Nadal and Fed and win RG: 0.0000000000000001%

arm
06-01-2008, 05:25 PM
Federer's chances to not reach the final are smaller than Djokovic beating Nadal in SF, to elaborate:

Fed not making the final: 0.1%
Djoko beating Nadal: 1%
djoko beating Nadal and Fed and win RG: 0.0000000000000001%

oh yeah, what a mug that Djokovic is. :yeah:

habibko
06-01-2008, 05:29 PM
oh yeah, what a mug that Djokovic is. :yeah:

he is a great player but he can't really beat Nadal on clay, Fed has more chances than him to say the least.

DrJules
06-01-2008, 05:46 PM
Oh, I see. The choices are either being a serb-tard or a fed-hater.n :lol: :lol:

That shows such a lack of imagination.

Djokovic is a wonderful player and has a captivating personality. These are the reasons I like him. Others may disagree, and that's ok with me. But, it's sort of narrow-minded to imagine that one can like Djokovic only because he is a serb or is capable of beating Federer.

Agree about the player bit, but currently find his personality a massive turn off. Hopefully he will follow the model of a the great champions who conducted themselves in a manner expected of a champion such as Borg, Sampras or Federer rather than a Connors, McEnroe or Agassi whose behaviour was totally unacceptable in my view.

Allez
06-01-2008, 05:52 PM
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

It's unlikely but possible. However I don't agree that Nadal has to be in a reaaaally bad day for it to happen.



I only watched 2/3 games of the match (Eurosport :mad:) but all I was able to watch was a :silly: Verdasco way too scared of Nadal. :shrug:

Actually in the first couple of games Verdasco was doing everything he can to win but he just couldn't get past Nadal. Since then he's completely lost the plot understandably and Nadal is romping home. Nadal has to have blisters the size of a football to lose.

DrJules
06-01-2008, 06:00 PM
Djokovic will not beat Nadal.

Only Federer has a chance and that is a small chance.

Aloimeh
06-01-2008, 06:08 PM
I give Djokovic a 25% chance of beating Nadal. That's realistic in my book. However, Nadal will have to be off his game, Novak will have to do everything perfectly, especially the serve and fixing the net game and that dreadful drop shot, and it will have to be done in three sets.

Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

arm
06-01-2008, 06:15 PM
he is a great player but he can't really beat Nadal on clay, Fed has more chances than him to say the least.

Agreed.

But those odds you suggested are just :silly: (all of them).

BigJohn
06-01-2008, 06:23 PM
Agree about the player bit, but currently find his personality a massive turn off. Hopefully he will follow the model of a the great champions who conducted themselves in a manner expected of a champion such as Borg, Sampras or Federer rather than a Connors, McEnroe or Agassi whose behaviour was totally unacceptable in my view.

I would add a precision here about Agassi: Agassi the Younger, because after his second rebirth, Agassi was simply as good a tennis model as Borg, Sampras, Federer...


Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

0% chance? 0?

:haha: :haha: :haha:

How about -10 000% chance? That sounds about as right as 0%...

Sunset of Age
06-01-2008, 06:38 PM
But, it's sort of narrow-minded to imagine that one can like Djokovic only because he is a serb or is capable of beating Federer.

Alas, it's a line of thinking that is very common over here... :shrug:
I personally don't like him at all, but that has nothing to do with his capability of beating Fed. If that were the case, I wouldn't like Muzza either, and I consider myself a fan of his. Same goes for Berdych and Youzhny - I like them very much, even if they managed to beat Nadal at certain occasions.

0% chance? 0?

:haha: :haha: :haha:

How about -10 000% chance? That sounds about as right as 0%...

Some people's visions get seriously blurred by what they want to see... ;)

nolop
06-01-2008, 06:43 PM
Shut up, realistically.

habibko
06-01-2008, 06:50 PM
Agreed.

But those odds you suggested are just :silly: (all of them).

I wasn't going for accurate estimation, just giving an idea :smash:

MrChopin
06-01-2008, 06:52 PM
I give Djokovic a 25% chance of beating Nadal. That's realistic in my book. However, Nadal will have to be off his game, Novak will have to do everything perfectly, especially the serve and fixing the net game and that dreadful drop shot, and it will have to be done in three sets.

Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

Don't you ever get tired of repeating the same stuff over and over?

star
06-01-2008, 06:55 PM
Agree about the player bit, but currently find his personality a massive turn off.

As I said, opinions vary. Personally, I never have found Sampras or Federer to have pleasing personalities although there are many who appear to worship them.

arm
06-01-2008, 07:00 PM
I wasn't going for accurate estimation, just giving an idea :smash:

You gave the idea that Djokovic stands no chance. And a lot of people happen to agree with me that that's false.

Anyway, ok I understand what you meant. :)

tangerine_dream
06-01-2008, 07:13 PM
Because I seriously don't want to see Federer win the FO and while I probably like Djokovic more than Rafa, I really doubt Djokovic's ability to beat Federer on clay, just due to the mental aspect.

IMO Djokovic is playing well enough to beat Nadal, but my fear is that he'll beat Rafa but falter at the last hurdle. So that begs the question, do you believe he has what it takes to defeat Nadal?
Nole's chances of beating Rafa are about as good as Roger's (zip). But should he pull off such an upset I don't see him faltering in the final vs Federer. I don't know if he'd win but I doubt he'd crumble under the pressure. Remember, he has a score to settle with Roger after that "Be Quiet!" espisode a few weeks ago. Novak loves his family, even if nobody else does.

BigJohn
06-01-2008, 07:32 PM
Nole's chances of beating Rafa are about as good as Roger's (zip). But should he pull off such an upset I don't see him faltering in the final vs Federer. I don't know if he'd win but I doubt he'd crumble under the pressure. Remember, he has a score to settle with Roger after that "Be Quiet!" espisode a few weeks ago. Novak loves his family, even if nobody else does.

Just like Roger has a score to settle about the last time they met in a major final. (or the last match they played when the kid retired coz he was sure to lose...) I think both would be pumped like crazy.

That "Be quiet!" episode actually increased the level of respect I have for Federer.

Pixie
06-01-2008, 07:57 PM
The Hambourg match showed Djokovic had the tools to push Nadal to his limits on clay. So realistically he has his chances though hard to say whether he can clinch a best of five sets match here.

Novak's BH on topspin FH from Rafa was quite liable to some of his UEs and I don't know if he has some margin of improvement on this side. If this is the case and providing he's able to show up like he did at Hamburg I fancy a possible win. Would I have to bet on him, I would count my cents and check my savings before though.

Manon
06-01-2008, 07:57 PM
That "Be quiet!" episode actually increased the level of respect I have for Federer.
This wannabe playboy had to say to umpire what bothers him. Wannabe 'white blood' will meet some giant who gives a sh** who he is/was and there's no more wannabe. He will sing as the old lady said.

Vinceten
06-01-2008, 07:59 PM
he definitely can beat Nadal :lol:...would be pretty hard but he can :p

DrJules
06-01-2008, 08:17 PM
I give Djokovic a 25% chance of beating Nadal. That's realistic in my book. However, Nadal will have to be off his game, Novak will have to do everything perfectly, especially the serve and fixing the net game and that dreadful drop shot, and it will have to be done in three sets.

Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

Nadal has won every match on clay he has played against Djokovic = near 0% chance of winning.

Federer has won 1 match out of 9 = around 10% chance of winning.

Both very unlikely to win.

DrJules
06-01-2008, 08:21 PM
Nole's chances of beating Rafa are about as good as Roger's (zip). But should he pull off such an upset I don't see him faltering in the final vs Federer. I don't know if he'd win but I doubt he'd crumble under the pressure. Remember, he has a score to settle with Roger after that "Be Quiet!" espisode a few weeks ago. Novak loves his family, even if nobody else does.

Tennis is plagued with unpleasant tennis parents and the player usually is better off without them on tour.

FNT
06-01-2008, 08:28 PM
Roger has beaten Nadal on clay and was close in Rome.
Djokovic hasn't come close even once. In the future, he just might, but I don't see it happening in the semifinals in France. Nadal seems to be on fire.

Aloimeh
06-01-2008, 08:33 PM
Nadal has won every match on clay he has played against Djokovic = near 0% chance of winning.

Federer has won 1 match out of 9 = around 10% chance of winning.

Both very unlikely to win.

Why don't you try to be objective on Djokovic for once in your life? Taking his 2006 FO and 2007 Rome and FO matches against Rafa into account is pathetic. He's come a long, long way in general and on clay since then. Regardless of the score, many agree that he pushed Nadal harder in Hamburg than did Federer and that Nadal was playing at or near his best. Talking about 2006 and 2007 clay matches for Djokovic is like talking about Federer's matches in 2001 and taking them into account in discussing his potential in 2006. It's pathetic.

As for Roger vs. Rafa, he's pushed him hard in Rome 2 years ago and is clearly not at that level now. He also found a awfully tired Nadal in Hamburg 2007 and that match had no bearing on any other clay court match - Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg 2008, or RG. Nadal owns Federer mentally on clay. Federer has practically all the tools to beat Rafa on clay (that backhand IS a liability, though) but he doesn't have the self-belief. In 2008, with no title but Estoril and two losses in finals against Rafa, I just don't see Roger beating him in RG this year.

DrJules
06-01-2008, 08:34 PM
Roger has beaten Nadal on clay and was close in Rome.
Djokovic hasn't come close even once. In the future, he just might, but I don't see it happening in the semifinals in France. Nadal seems to be on fire.

Can Djokovic win a set is more realistic.

Bilbo
06-01-2008, 08:38 PM
another troll thread

Djokovic won't even win a set let alone beat Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay

Nadal in 3

hope this helps

Neely
06-01-2008, 10:23 PM
Bilbo you sound very confident, only because you don't like Djoko or because the Hamburg semi left you completely unimpressed?

DrJules
06-01-2008, 10:40 PM
Bilbo you sound very confident, only because you don't like Djoko or because the Hamburg semi left you completely unimpressed?

Or because of being extremely impressed with Nadal.

njnetswill
06-01-2008, 10:50 PM
I am a self-described djokotard but I would be happy if Novak can manage to win a set. I just can't imagine Novak beating Nadal in a best of 5 claycourt match at Roland Garros. It would be the most pleasant surprise since Gasquet-Roddick last year at Wimbledon.

betowiec
06-01-2008, 10:52 PM
yes
when?
this week

Clay Death
06-01-2008, 11:12 PM
I am a self-described djokotard but I would be happy if Novak can manage to win a set. I just can't imagine Novak beating Nadal in a best of 5 claycourt match at Roland Garros. It would be the most pleasant surprise since Gasquet-Roddick last year at Wimbledon.

as in Hamburg, Djokovic will take a set. Nadal is out for blood however and will not go down.

going down means he loses more than just the title. he loses his #2 rank and his status the king of clay. it is not going to happen here.

luie
06-01-2008, 11:21 PM
as in Hamburg, Djokovic will take a set. Nadal is out for blood however and will not go down.

going down means he loses more than just the title. he loses his #2 rank and his status the king of clay. it is not going to happen here.
BUT I'am not a fan of novak by any stretch of the imagination but I would like him to give nadal lots of work ,,keep him out there as long as he could,,,if fed loses before the final,,,I don't care ..:)

CyBorg
06-01-2008, 11:28 PM
Nadal has won every match on clay he has played against Djokovic = near 0% chance of winning.

Federer has won 1 match out of 9 = around 10% chance of winning.

Both very unlikely to win.

By this thinking, Roger had zero percent chance of beating Nadal going into Hamburg 07.

MrChopin
06-01-2008, 11:35 PM
I give Djokovic a 25% chance of beating Nadal. That's realistic in my book. However, Nadal will have to be off his game, Novak will have to do everything perfectly, especially the serve and fixing the net game and that dreadful drop shot, and it will have to be done in three sets.

Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

Why don't you try to be objective on Djokovic for once in your life?

:retard:

Taking his 2006 FO and 2007 Rome and FO matches against Rafa into account is pathetic. He's come a long, long way in general and on clay since then. Regardless of the score, many agree that he pushed Nadal harder in Hamburg than did Federer and that Nadal was playing at or near his best.

The problem with all the clay Djokovic talk is that there isn't a lot of data to go by. He played few clay players in MC and Rome that can be used as a comparison, and he lost to Fed. He played and lost to Nadal in Hamburg. That's two "strong" clay opponents, and in both cases, he was beat.

The Hamburg statement is tripe. "Many" is purposefully vague, but I don't aqree with your summary of Hamburg. Fed scored better and was closer to getting the first set and the third set than Djokovic. Fed's first set play was more dominant than anything Djoke showed against Rafa. And in trying to predict what will happen at RG, we both know that Nole has a history of problems with long or tight matches against Rafa and Fed (RG '06, Wimb '07, USO '07, MC '08).

As for Roger vs. Rafa, he's pushed him hard in Rome 2 years ago and is clearly not at that level now. He also found a awfully tired Nadal in Hamburg 2007 and that match had no bearing on any other clay court match - Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg 2008, or RG.

You're contradicting yourself here. We're to ignore Djokovic's '06-'07 matches against Rafa, but not Fed's?

And what level are you referring to? Federer was more dominant against all opponents in '06 except for Rafa, which is the only topic we're interested in. So forget whatever "level" Fed was at, and look at what has happened in '06, '07, and '08 between just Rafa and Fed.

Fed lost his first four matches of '06 against Nadal, the first year Nadal stepped up and showed significant and consistent improvement (he wasn't ranked #2 until late '05). Nadal had pushed Fed hard at Miami '05 even beat Fed at Dubai '06. Fed has not yielded a hard court set or lost a match outside of clay since.

Fed played Nadal's game on clay in '06 and most of '07, trying to rally behind the baseline and subsequently shanking shots after a Nadal puts him on the defensive. RG '06 and MC '07 confirm this. Yet at RG '07, Fed started coming in more, playing more agressively, looking to end points quickly. You could see this for the first 2+ sets of RG. Fed was changing his game as a means to catch Nadal on clay.

In both of their '08 encounters, Fed has been in a winning position 4/5 sets, whether up a late break or double break. He's playing more aggressively than he has in the past, is serving better, and is looking to move in as much as possible. It's showing results, and even though he hasn't won, he's employing a different tactic that has brought him closer than in '07 and with more consistency than in '06.

Nadal owns Federer mentally on clay. Federer has practically all the tools to beat Rafa on clay (that backhand IS a liability, though) but he doesn't have the self-belief. In 2008, with no title but Estoril and two losses in finals against Rafa, I just don't see Roger beating him in RG this year.

This is pure speculation and unfounded at that. You don't know how Fed feels while playing Rafa, and the above timeline refutes your claim that Fed is resigned to losing against Nadal on clay. Citing his performances elsewhere this year doesn't shed any light on how Fed will do against Rafa on clay, so it's immaterial.

And don't tout objectivity unless you're willing to go by it.

Aloimeh
06-01-2008, 11:54 PM
:retard:

You've written a lot of stuff here that I can't spend the time to dissect. However, I will, in the spirit of objectivity, highlight why the Djokovic and Federer analyses still hold. True, there isn't much to go by on Djokovic on clay. I still reject going on RG 2007 and Rome 2007 and particularly RG 2006 in discussing Djokovic on clay now. He is simply a much better player now overall and he's improved on clay just as much as he has improved on hard, with clay being a weaker surface of course. So all we have to go on is essentially the 2008 results. True, in MC he was defeated by Federer. While I didn't agree with his retirement at all and fully believe Federer would have won either way, I don't dismiss the possibility that he was ill and that things simply weren't working for him during that match. Not agreeing with the retirement, but perhaps there was some basis for the weaker play. Rome he won of course, and while you can bash the draw as much as you like, why didn't Roger come through against Stepanek? And in Hamburg I still believe he gave Rafa a harder time than did Roger, but that's a subjective point. As for Roger, using past results vis-a-vis Rafa holds because Roger is not on the upswing. If anything, he's plateaued since 2006 or is actually on the downswing. If Roger couldn't close it out in Rome 2006 or in RG 2006 or 2007, what makes you think that this year, after failing at AO, IW, Miami, MC, Rome, and Hamburg - he will suddenly start winning RG and against Rafa? I just don't see any improvements in his game/strategy since 2006 or 2007. Add to that the failure at Hamburg, which was his strongest clay tournament, and it isn't unreasonable to hold that Roger has very, very slim chances of beating Nadal here. Now, maybe Djokovic's realistic chances against Nadal aren't 25% but rather 20% or 15% or 10% or less. But I still think Djokovic has a better chance against Nadal, based on recent results, a better matchup (the 2HBH vs. 1HBH against Nadal's topspin forehand), and Federer's years-long mental baggage with respect to his clay nemesis.

Knightmace
06-01-2008, 11:58 PM
Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

GlennMirnyi
06-01-2008, 11:59 PM
Hell would freeze before that.

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 12:01 AM
You've written a lot of stuff here that I can't spend the time to dissect. However, I will, in the spirit of objectivity, highlight why the Djokovic and Federer analyses still hold. True, there isn't much to go by on Djokovic on clay. I still reject going on RG 2007 and Rome 2007 and particularly RG 2006 in discussing Djokovic on clay now. He is simply a much better player now overall and he's improved on clay just as much as he has improved on hard, with clay being a weaker surface of course. So all we have to go on is essentially the 2008 results. True, in MC he was defeated by Federer. While I didn't agree with his retirement at all and fully believe Federer would have won either way, I don't dismiss the possibility that he was ill and that things simply weren't working for him during that match. Not agreeing with the retirement, but perhaps there was some basis for the weaker play. Rome he won of course, and while you can bash the draw as much as you like, why didn't Roger come through against Stepanek? And in Hamburg I still believe he gave Rafa a harder time than did Roger, but that's a subjective point. As for Roger, using past results vis-a-vis Rafa holds because Roger is not on the upswing. If anything, he's plateaued since 2006 or is actually on the downswing. If Roger couldn't close it out in Rome 2006 or in RG 2006 or 2007, what makes you think that this year, after failing at AO, IW, Miami, MC, Rome, and Hamburg - he will suddenly start winning RG and against Rafa? I just don't see any improvements in his game/strategy since 2006 or 2007. Add to that the failure at Hamburg, which was his strongest clay tournament, and it isn't unreasonable to hold that Roger has very, very slim chances of beating Nadal here. Now, maybe Djokovic's realistic chances against Nadal aren't 25% but rather 20% or 15% or 10% or less. But I still think Djokovic has a better chance against Nadal, based on recent results, a better matchup (the 2HBH vs. 1HBH against Nadal's topspin forehand), and Federer's years-long mental baggage with respect to his clay nemesis.

Djokovic is a significantly bigger threat to the Clay monster on clay than Fed will ever be. Fed has had his turn at the bat and he keeps striking out.

Djokovic is 21 by 2 weeks. he will have eternity to get better than he already is. his 2 hander--along with the rest of the game--makes him a bigger threat to Nadal. it doesnt break down. it is solid as a rock and Djokovic can attack or finish off that wing which is something Fed cannot do.

Chris 84
06-02-2008, 12:03 AM
Is it possible? Of course.

Will it happen? Almost certainly not.

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 12:13 AM
Is it possible? Of course.

Will it happen? Almost certainly not.

the strategy is fairly simple for Nadal:

1. play a clean match which means high % tennis.

2. make his opportunities by smart point construction and then be assault minded with those opportunities. in other words, go for the kill on exactly the right shot and at exactly the right time.

3. wear down Djokovic and he will start to miss his targets.

4. take care of his serve since Djokovic has a huge serve and may be difficult to break. Nadal broke Verdasco 9 times today. that will not happen against Djokovic.

5. return well and at least make Djokovic earn his service games.

the match belongs to Nadal and he will take it in 4. that said, it will be a long match.

dmit424
06-02-2008, 12:29 AM
I give Djokovic a 25% chance of beating Nadal. That's realistic in my book. However, Nadal will have to be off his game, Novak will have to do everything perfectly, especially the serve and fixing the net game and that dreadful drop shot, and it will have to be done in three sets.

Federer has a 0% chance of beating Nadal at this point. He has no mental fortitude against him and almost obligatorily chokes when he plays him on clay.

So you're saying that Djokovic has a 25% chance at beating Nadal in straights? Come on, now, the mafia would need to have money on Djokovic for that to happen.

That's the trouble when one starts to wonder if Djokovic has a chance. I just do not see him winning 3-0 or 3-1 against freaking Nadal on clay, and so then it must be 3-2, and with no tiebreaker in the fifth, and with how a 5-setter would last about 5 hours, and with Novak's fitness questions, and with how Nadal is just a diehard animal on clay, I struggle to see Djokovic winning this one this year. I think he might do it in the future, just not 2008 at RG.

Merton
06-02-2008, 01:11 AM
Yes he can, I would give about 25-30% probability of Djokovic winning, but I don't think it will happen. The Hamburg match is not representative for what will happen here, as it was best of 3 indoors, in heavy conditions. Djokovic's serve was not as potent there but on the other hand he could attack on the return of serve relentlessly and quite uncharacteristically for him. In Paris Nole will get more free points from his serve but he will not be able to attack on the return of serve so well. Playing on a sunny day the difference in movement on the surface will be exploited, particularly when Djokovic hits forehands on the run.

Another interesting thing is what effect Nole's confidence will play in this match. What follows is totally subjective/speculative so feel free to skip reading if you feel like it. I think that he attributes his loss in Hamburg to poor luck, he believes that his game is quite sufficient to take out Nadal and perhaps deeply inside he believes in the historical inevitability of the golden slam. We do not know how these beliefs will affect his performance, in my mind to stand a chance he will need to take way more risks than he usually does, believing that you are the superior player does not exactly help to install a sense of urgency.

jcempire
06-02-2008, 01:11 AM
Who knows? But if he does it, he will lock No 1 seed for USOPEN

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 01:23 AM
So you're saying that Djokovic has a 25% chance at beating Nadal in straights? Come on, now, the mafia would need to have money on Djokovic for that to happen.

That's the trouble when one starts to wonder if Djokovic has a chance. I just do not see him winning 3-0 or 3-1 against freaking Nadal on clay, and so then it must be 3-2, and with no tiebreaker in the fifth, and with how a 5-setter would last about 5 hours, and with Novak's fitness questions, and with how Nadal is just a diehard animal on clay, I struggle to see Djokovic winning this one this year. I think he might do it in the future, just not 2008 at RG.

Djokovic may start to fade away after 4 hours.

Forehander
06-02-2008, 01:43 AM
When they last played, Djokovic played as well as he could on clay. He was fresh, not afraid, payed absolutely no respect to Nadal's game since he thrashed him in Indian Wells during QF play. He knew his chances were strong and the strategies were there. That was what made the match so intense back then in Hamburg, where they played fair and square.........

No Djokovic can't beat Nadal.

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 01:46 AM
When they last played, Djokovic played as well as he could on clay. He was fresh, not afraid, payed absolutely no respect to Nadal's game since he thrashed him during Indian Wells during QF play. He knew his chances were strong and the strategies were there. That was what made the match so intense back then in Hamburg, where they played fair and square.........

No Djokovic can't beat Nadal.

what is scary about Nadal is that he is actually a bit off. his form is not quite there this year. even worse, he comes into this slam as slightly less fit than last year.

in any case, his mental toughness is now at another level and that is very bad news for Djokovic and Fed. he simply refuses to believe that he can be beat here at Roland Garros.

his uncle said that his "will" is just unbelievable.

~*BGT*~
06-02-2008, 01:47 AM
Only in Farenhajt's wet dream. :drool:

Forehander
06-02-2008, 01:50 AM
what is scary about Nadal is that he is actually a bit off. his form is not quite there this year. even worse, he comes into this slam as slightly less fit than last year.

in any case, his mental toughness is now at another level and that is very bad news for Djokovic and Fed. he simply refuses to believe that he can be beat here at Roland Garros.

his uncle said that his his "will" is just unbelievable.

Yep Nadal will win. He's Incredible Hulk.

kafemotor
06-02-2008, 02:16 AM
General assumption: yes, but the possibility is low
Personal choice: i love to see a tight match between these two giants regardless the outcome toward eventual final performance...

nsidhan
06-02-2008, 02:32 AM
Yes. Djokovic will beat Nadal on clay when hell freezes over.

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 02:33 AM
Yep Nadal will win. He's Incredible Hulk.


the incredible clay monster. he may be bigger and tougher than the incredible hulk.

he is so damn tough that he has started parting his hair with an axe. he feasts on 18 pounds of nails and broken glass for a snack just before his matches.

his uncle said that recently, when on a safari, 11 rattle snakes bit him. it was a terrible sight. watching all 11 snakes just curl up and die.

RedFury
06-02-2008, 02:36 AM
Yes - of course he can :)

Admittedly, he would have to play at the very top of his level, and Nadal would have to have a "bad day at the office", so I don't think it's very likely :sad: But he's a professional and the current Number 3 in the world, and has beaten Nadal before (albeit not on clay), so of course he has a chance - and certainly a much better chance than most :)

Nadal's 122-4 (96.8%) mark from 2005 to 2008 (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/tennis/2008-05-21-nadal-cover_N.htm) makes his the best clycourter in history during that timespan. Does Nole have a chance? But of course. 3.3% odds of winning. Being generous as we Spaniards are wont to be, I'll give him over three times as many: 12%.

Place your bets, gents, ladies and assorted fools.

Enjoy. Or whine. Your choice.

Nadal rolls to fourth. Headline seen here first.

littleash
06-02-2008, 02:37 AM
horseface will retire if he loses the first two sets :o

dmit424
06-02-2008, 02:42 AM
I saw Djokovic beat PHM today and it's just interesting how Djokovic doesn't play a true clay court game. He's not a master drop shotter, and he's more of a solid baseline player that is really good at making shots from all over the court, but he doesn't really play the grinding, topspin-heavy game that's best suited for clay. This isn't a knock on Djokovic, but actually more of a compliment because his game is just so sharp that he really is able to impose his style and ability on the court, even if his style isn't best suited for clay. He's basically overriding the clay with his brilliance.

However, what makes Nadal different is that he's also very accomplished in the shot-making and groundstroke department, but he's also perfectly adapt to the clay court game. He doesn't have to impose his game on the clay, he IS the clay court game. He represents the perfect new-age clay court player, in my opinion. He has all the clay essentials of being able to grind, of defending, of playing the angles, of using top-spin, and plus he's an incredible overall tennis player. All of this gives him the edge over Djokovic (and Federer).

morningglory
06-02-2008, 02:50 AM
Not on clay he cant...
Anywhere else he's the favorite

Clay Death
06-02-2008, 03:13 AM
I saw Djokovic beat PHM today and it's just interesting how Djokovic doesn't play a true clay court game. He's not a master drop shotter, and he's more of a solid baseline player that is really good at making shots from all over the court, but he doesn't really play the grinding, topspin-heavy game that's best suited for clay. This isn't a knock on Djokovic, but actually more of a compliment because his game is just so sharp that he really is able to impose his style and ability on the court, even if his style isn't best suited for clay. He's basically overriding the clay with his brilliance.

However, what makes Nadal different is that he's also very accomplished in the shot-making and groundstroke department, but he's also perfectly adapt to the clay court game. He doesn't have to impose his game on the clay, he IS the clay court game. He represents the perfect new-age clay court player, in my opinion. He has all the clay essentials of being able to grind, of defending, of playing the angles, of using top-spin, and plus he's an incredible overall tennis player. All of this gives him the edge over Djokovic (and Federer).


Nadal needs improvement in the following areas to be even better than he is already on clay:

1. better serve
2. better slice
3. better drop shot
4. better use of the net to end points.

RedFury
06-02-2008, 03:17 AM
I saw Djokovic beat PHM today and it's just interesting how Djokovic doesn't play a true clay court game. He's not a master drop shotter, and he's more of a solid baseline player that is really good at making shots from all over the court, but he doesn't really play the grinding, topspin-heavy game that's best suited for clay. This isn't a knock on Djokovic, but actually more of a compliment because his game is just so sharp that he really is able to impose his style and ability on the court, even if his style isn't best suited for clay. He's basically overriding the clay with his brilliance.

However, what makes Nadal different is that he's also very accomplished in the shot-making and groundstroke department, but he's also perfectly adapt to the clay court game. He doesn't have to impose his game on the clay, he IS the clay court game. He represents the perfect new-age clay court player, in my opinion. He has all the clay essentials of being able to grind, of defending, of playing the angles, of using top-spin, and plus he's an incredible overall tennis player. All of this gives him the edge over Djokovic (and Federer).

Not much of a a "me too" poster, likely the first time here in fact, but hey! When some one can "Reader's Digest" (abridge) a point, as opposed to 'producing' a sleep-inducing five-year story of the point made so well and succinctly by dmit. Hell's bells...don't believe we've addressed each other before, and if not, irrelevant seems to me for this topic.

Good job. Trust you don't mind we might be at each other's throat's on other matters.

Best,

~Red

NinaNina19
06-02-2008, 03:17 AM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

oshk
06-02-2008, 03:18 AM
no.

~*BGT*~
06-02-2008, 03:24 AM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

You're just trying to make Murray's losses to him look better. ;) :p

TheSwissMaster
06-02-2008, 03:55 AM
yes but not until next year. oneday i see him taking away the the title from nadal but this yr its still too early for him specially in a 5 sets match

dmit424
06-02-2008, 03:56 AM
Nadal needs improvement in the following areas to be even better than he is already on clay:

1. better serve
2. better slice
3. better drop shot
4. better use of the net to end points.

I was wondering the other day whether Nadal has actually improved his clay court game over the past few years. I want to say yes, but he's been dominanating clay on three years now, and this year isn't even his most dominant. And the other thing I was thinking about is how Federer, for three years and counting, has basically been a phenomenal tennis player self-tasked with the mission of improving his own clay court game in order to dethrone Nadal at RG. However, over the past three years, it seems that he's made absolutely no dent in Nadal's game and, if anything, Nadal is only gaining a mental edge through successive wins and thus Roger is actually becoming less and less of a threat to Nadal on clay... Basically a counter-effect of what Federer's goal is. And that's basically where I started thinking: Has Nadal improved on clay? Has Federer also improved, but an equal or lesser rate than Nadal, and thus is still unable to do much versus him on clay? Or has neither improved? Nadal has been completely dominant and on an extremely high level on clay for a long time, so it's almost believable that he hasn't really improved much on clay over the years... How much can one improve over 36-1 clay (or so) court records? But if we go by the "neither has improved much" theory, I think looking at Roger is even more amazing. It's really strange to think that Roger, the great player that he is (not condenscending him, stating the actual truth), has virtually been unable to improve his clay court game. I mean, seriously, isn't it strange that Roger, 3 years and counting now, is doint absolutely no better vs. Nadal on clay than he was about 3 years ago?

RedFury
06-02-2008, 03:56 AM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

Hazard a guess I will. Easy access to mind-altering substances where you currently reside, right? Any chance you'll give me GPS directions?

How about I respond: If my Grandma had 'nads she'd might have been my Grandpa?

Reality, friend: No one better on clay than Nadal for years now. In any measure, be it subjective or objective. Facts, in this case, can't be twisted. Well too documented...and just plain dominant.

Best Ever on Clay? More than likely if his health holds for four or five years. Really, with all the bashing about his style, you'd think it's been all about being a wall attached to a bungee-cord. If I may, watch again, Rafa's game, more so so this year than any one prior is showing just how controlling his game can be on the surface.

Rafa, 'The Bull'? Naw, Rafa's becoming quite the blend...tennis IQ...awesome talent*...and as much will as anyone can think of.

*unaesthetically as some/many find it. To me, it represents the core of who we are as a people. Just don't ever give-up no matter the odds.

Proud of the kid.

MrChopin
06-02-2008, 05:06 AM
You've written a lot of stuff here that I can't spend the time to dissect. However, I will, in the spirit of objectivity, highlight why the Djokovic and Federer analyses still hold.

Good! Discussion helps everyone get to a more knowledgeable understanding.

True, there isn't much to go by on Djokovic on clay. I still reject going on RG 2007 and Rome 2007 and particularly RG 2006 in discussing Djokovic on clay now. He is simply a much better player now overall and he's improved on clay just as much as he has improved on hard, with clay being a weaker surface of course. So all we have to go on is essentially the 2008 results.

I generally agree with this. Old matches are only so helpful to predict new outcomes, and the older/more different they are from current status, the less important they are.

True, in MC he was defeated by Federer. While I didn't agree with his retirement at all and fully believe Federer would have won either way, I don't dismiss the possibility that he was ill and that things simply weren't working for him during that match. Not agreeing with the retirement, but perhaps there was some basis for the weaker play.

I honestly can't say how sick he was... only Nole and a few others know that. Based on what I saw, I'd conclude that his form wasn't impaired, as he seemed to be capable of what he normally is. All I know is that Fed played better and was winning when Nole retired. And I agree that Nole should have finished the match, especially as he had a week to rest following Monte Carlo.

Rome he won of course, and while you can bash the draw as much as you like, why didn't Roger come through against Stepanek?

A fair question that unfortunately doesn't have a conclusive answer (for the topic at hand), given that Stepanek retired. Stepanek played really well against Federer and beat him. Whether or not Stepanek played as well against Djokovic is again hard to judge, just like Nole in MC. So it's hard to say that "Stepanek beat Fed, Djokovic beat Stepanek, therefore..." Plus of course, different players have different matchups and such, and so using like opponents is also tricky for prediction.

For me, Rome boils down to Djokovic not having to play guys like Nadal, Fed, Ferrer, Nalbandian, Davydenko, healthy-Almagro... the guys that have been consistent clay threats this year and good universal measures. While he certainly did what was needed to win Rome, he didn't beat the players one normally needs to in order to earn such a title, and so it's hard to say that his Rome title is equivalent to something like Nadal's Monte Carlo or Hamburg, or that because he won an MS on clay, he is better than a guy that didn't. I think MC and Hamburg are better indicators because most of the top guys were present at the end, and with respect to Nadal, Fed, and Djoke, those are the only two clay tournaments where they played each other.

And in Hamburg I still believe he gave Rafa a harder time than did Roger, but that's a subjective point. As for Roger, using past results vis-a-vis Rafa holds because Roger is not on the upswing. If anything, he's plateaued since 2006 or is actually on the downswing. If Roger couldn't close it out in Rome 2006 or in RG 2006 or 2007, what makes you think that this year, after failing at AO, IW, Miami, MC, Rome, and Hamburg - he will suddenly start winning RG and against Rafa? I just don't see any improvements in his game/strategy since 2006 or 2007. Add to that the failure at Hamburg, which was his strongest clay tournament, and it isn't unreasonable to hold that Roger has very, very slim chances of beating Nadal here.

Fed's overall "dominance" has dropped, but that doesn't mean that his overall game his plateaued; in addition to getting older, other guys are improving (there was no serious threat from Djokovic in '06).

I pointed out Fed's clay matchup with Nadal because that is most enlightening for whether or not he will beat Nadal. Fed may have been more dominant -overall- in '06, but that doesn't say much about how his and Rafa's clay games have changed since '06, or how much they understand about playing each other on the surface after 2+ years. When looking at that matchup and its evolution, Fed appears to be closing in, looking consistently better against clay-Rafa in '08 than in '06 (and certainly '07).

Now, maybe Djokovic's realistic chances against Nadal aren't 25% but rather 20% or 15% or 10% or less. But I still think Djokovic has a better chance against Nadal, based on recent results, a better matchup (the 2HBH vs. 1HBH against Nadal's topspin forehand), and Federer's years-long mental baggage with respect to his clay nemesis.

I think Djokovic has about a 20% chance to beat Nadal. He can hit harder and win more free points, but he will make more errors. If he gets frustrated and unloads too early (something he did a little of against Roger at MC as well) he will lose quick. He has to play nearly perfect for at least three sets and remain as aggressive as he can. He did this at Hamburg with some lapses and it cost him the match after just 2+ sets. He is also going to need all of his legendary confidence because he probably won't sustain good enough play to get it done in straights.

I think Fed has a better chance because he can take the game away from Nadal. His start to the Hamburg final was spot-on tactically. Whether or not Rafa was tired, he really didn't have an answer, whereas against Djokovic he continued to fight and fight until Djokovic made the error or Nadal could bury him. Djokovic can't take the game away from Nadal; he's more consistent than Fed, but his game isn't structured around winning fast enough.

Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

Better than Nadal on clay?:eek::eek: And I thought "Djokovic is clearly superior to hardcourt-Fed" was an extreme opinion.

Action Jackson
06-02-2008, 06:36 AM
You're just trying to make Murray's losses to him look better. ;) :p

Of course.

Kuhne
06-02-2008, 07:09 AM
After seeing their Hamburg semifinal and how Djokovic choked there it is fair to say Djokovic CAN beat Rafa on clay, all these matches Rafa has been wining, he's been incredible but he's been benefiting from his opponents fighting only the first set then giving up when they lose that set. Djokovic has a lot of confidence in himself but he has the heart of a mouse. if he feels he cant win, he'll just quit or fake injury but if he really is up to it, he can obviously beat Rafa.

Now Roger? .. I doubt it. Roger eats flatballers for breakfast, the more Djokovic tries to beat Roger the more he beats himself. it's just a clash of styles kinda thing. like in boxing.

Skillwise though, nobody beats nadal on clay. ever

rafa_maniac
06-02-2008, 07:18 AM
After seeing their Hamburg semifinal and how Djokovic choked there it is fair to say Djokovic CAN beat Rafa on clay, all these matches Rafa has been wining, he's been incredible but he's been benefiting from his opponents fighting only the first set then giving up when they lose that set. Djokovic has a lot of confidence in himself but he has the heart of a mouse. if he feels he cant win, he'll just quit or fake injury but if he really is up to it, he can obviously beat Rafa.

Now Roger? .. I doubt it. Roger eats flatballers for breakfast, the more Djokovic tries to beat Roger the more he beats himself. it's just a clash of styles kinda thing. like in boxing.

Skillwise though, nobody beats nadal on clay. ever


Djokovic choked :confused: Rafa was the one who got broken while serving for the first set. He then proceeded to serve it out on his second attempt, and steamrolled Djoke in the third. Djoko doesn't have the stamina or consistency yet to beat Nadal over a best of five sets match on clay, least of all RG clay. He couldn't do it in favourable conditions in a best of three in Hamburg, it's not going to happen here. I think he might take a set, that's it. Federer is still a much bigger threat in my mind, he's the only one who can truly outplay Nadal on clay for sretches of a match, the problem is once again that not he, nor anyone, can keep up the required level for long enough, Nadal is just too good for too long. Djoko can outrally Nadal quite often, but in the long run it's a losing strategy, Federer can at least, as another poster said, "take the game away from Nadal".

t0x
06-02-2008, 07:22 AM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

Rafa is by far the best clay courter.

Djoko and Fed are very capible of having patches where they make look Rafa look fairly average. But neither of them (so far) have shown us they can sustain that level long enough to beat Rafa in a best of 5 match. Rafa's game relies on tiring opponents down mentally and physically.

Wojtek
06-02-2008, 07:29 AM
no

trixtah
06-02-2008, 07:31 AM
Nadal needs improvement in the following areas to be even better than he is already on clay:

1. better serve
2. better slice
3. better drop shot
4. better use of the net to end points.

His serve is effective enough for his game. He's already got a good serve, though he doesn't use his wide serve enough.

Commander Data
06-02-2008, 07:41 AM
Sometimes I just cant understand the hatered on this board. people here seem to lose track of the fun sometimes. It's a game for our entertainement guys!

I mean some rivalry is fun but hate?!


I mean I hope Federer wins and I don't like The Djoker, but the the way he is improving lately, he certainly has a chance to beat Nadal. that being said, the djoker is a great player, quite funny and intelligent. His quite cocky but that makes things interesting doesn't it? Fed the genious, djokovic the cocky wunderkind and the Spartan. it's great!

Johnny Groove
06-02-2008, 07:50 AM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

:retard: :retard: :retard:

When he gets that so called fitness he can try to play Nadal on clay again. Until then, he has no chance.

Rogiman
06-02-2008, 07:55 AM
Djokovic will eventually beat Nadal on clay AND at RG, be it this year or the next.

For now I'm just content with these two guys killing each other in the SF :)

Johnny Groove
06-02-2008, 08:12 AM
Djokovic will eventually beat Nadal on clay AND at RG, be it this year or the next.

For now I'm just content with these two guys killing each other in the SF :)

Please, you know as well as I that the killing will be a one way street

Rogiman
06-02-2008, 08:16 AM
Please, you know as well as I that the killing will be a one way streetIf you really believe this will be a walk in the park for Nadal you're in for a big surprise.

He'll probably win, but it will be a 3 hours + match.

Johnny Groove
06-02-2008, 08:19 AM
If you really believe this will be a walk in the park for Nadal you're in for a big surprise.

He'll probably win, but it will be a 3 hours + match.

I don't think its gonna be a walk in the park for Nadal, but i doubt Djokovic will wear him out. I expect it also to be 3+ hours and perhaps 4 sets or 3 very tight ones.

But at the end of the match, Nadal will look like a spring chicken while Nole will look in desperate need of an oxygen mask

dylan24
06-02-2008, 08:23 AM
No

MariaV
06-02-2008, 08:24 AM
Yes he can (to answer the question).

Nice convo guys, carry on! :wavey:

OSmeone
06-02-2008, 08:33 AM
If you really believe this will be a walk in the park for Nadal you're in for a big surprise.

He'll probably win, but it will be a 3 hours + match.

The thing is, the winner of that semi (Nadal) will have two days to recover in before the final (I think) so even if Rafa did by some act of fate emerge exhausted, it wouldn't affect the final result.

Turquoise
06-02-2008, 08:55 AM
The thing is, the winner of that semi (Nadal) will have two days to recover in before the final (I think) so even if Rafa did by some act of fate emerge exhausted, it wouldn't affect the final result.

You forgot to factor in rain delays ;)

But seriously, Nadal on clay is a phenomenon in itself. Both Federer and Djokovic have managed to chip through the armour - only to find a hard steel of resolve beneath.

iriraz
06-02-2008, 09:02 AM
In a best of 5 match it`s really difficult for Djokovic to keep up with Nadal.If Nadal has physical problems then Djokovic could take advantage otherwise it`s clear Nadal will punish Djokovic when the serb will come to the net and play agressive from baseline.
Realistically Djokovic could take the first set and then Nadal will find his rhythm and take control and win in 4

keroni
06-02-2008, 09:04 AM
if Djokovic wins, it will be in 3 sets.

Rogiman
06-02-2008, 09:31 AM
The thing is, the winner of that semi (Nadal) will have two days to recover in before the final (I think) so even if Rafa did by some act of fate emerge exhausted, it wouldn't affect the final result.Very true, but I can only hope it will be a really gruelling affair :) and even then - this will be Nadal's only tough match before the final so in all likelihood he'll be fresh and ready to collect 4th RG title in a row :sad:

Commander Data
06-02-2008, 09:32 AM
I don't think its gonna be a walk in the park for Nadal, but i doubt Djokovic will wear him out. I expect it also to be 3+ hours and perhaps 4 sets or 3 very tight ones.

But at the end of the match, Nadal will look like a spring chicken while Nole will look in desperate need of an oxygen mask


:lol:

Rogiman
06-02-2008, 09:33 AM
if Djokovic wins, it will be in 3 sets.Which means he won't.

TheSwissMaster
06-02-2008, 09:43 AM
I can only hope it will be a really gruelling affair :)
cosign


and even then - this will be Nadal's only tough match before the final so in all likelihood he'll be fresh and ready to collect 4th RG title in a row :sad:

but who knows if (god forbid) his blister worsens, if somehow djoko is able to push him all the way for 4 hrs, it might just... :):devil:

yanchr
06-02-2008, 10:34 AM
Absolutely. Perfect result for me - 16-14 in the fifth and both of them on drips.

Perhaps their SF is rain delayed too so they have to play Saturday and then the final on Sunday in cold, heavy, damp conditions.

Not too much to ask is it? :)
One more thing to ask: put Nadal-Djokovic on the 2nd on Friday, then I'm all satisfied :D

Forehander
06-02-2008, 04:28 PM
Nadal is a good player on clay no doubt.

groundstroke
06-02-2008, 04:48 PM
Nope.

DrJules
06-02-2008, 07:49 PM
Djokovic imo is the better player even on CLAY. In Hamburg, he had his chances in the first set and he only lost it because of Nadal's amazing mental strenth as well as a few loose points here and there. He won the second set 6-2 and yes I know Nadal's level dropped a bit but imo Djokovic only lost because he was tired. If he had much better endurance, he would be beating Nadal on CLAY every single time.

Djokovic better than Nadal on clay.:lol::lol::lol:

marcRD
06-02-2008, 07:53 PM
Nadal is a good player on clay no doubt.

You think so?

Matt01
06-02-2008, 09:04 PM
Anyone who has watched the matches in Hamburg knows that both Roger and Nole have a realistic chance to beat Rafa on clay :wavey:

That said, that realistic chance isn't that terribly big. Rafa's game looks awesome these days. :worship:


Nadal is a good player on clay no doubt.

LOL. Understatement of the year.

star
06-02-2008, 11:07 PM
Nadal is a good player on clay no doubt.

Hall of Fame quote. :lol: :lol:

MacTheKnife
06-02-2008, 11:25 PM
I think any chance he has is with dry fast conditions. If it's rainy, heavy, and slow Rafa in 3. If bright sunny day and perfect conditions, this could be a dog fight.

Goget
06-02-2008, 11:27 PM
Yes, but only on Playstation.

scoobs
06-02-2008, 11:31 PM
Funny how Nole probably needs it fast and dry, but Roger needs it slow and damp :)

l_mac
06-02-2008, 11:38 PM
Funny how Nole probably needs it fast and dry, but Roger needs it slow and damp :)

Roger won't even need that now he has worked out where Rafa's holes are :shrug:

At least that's what he told Wilander :cool:

RogandyFan
06-02-2008, 11:51 PM
Roger won't even need that now he has worked out where Rafa's holes are :shrug:

At least that's what he told Wilander :cool:

What good are those holes if he is going to choke the match away. There is just too much choking evidence from fed in the past.:rolleyes:

ForehandWinner
06-03-2008, 12:06 AM
Not in a M. F..... years!

scoobs
06-03-2008, 12:13 AM
Roger won't even need that now he has worked out where Rafa's holes are :shrug:

At least that's what he told Wilander :cool:
And this is why Roger will go down to another tame defeat in the final, should he make it.

It's the same old bollocks we've heard for years, in a different wording.

"Figured him out."

"I know how to play him on clay now."

"I know where his holes are" (Is this even about tennis?)

And yet when he tries to expose those holes (ahem), he comes up empty handed.

l_mac
06-03-2008, 12:36 AM
Maybe he had slightly misjudged exactly where the holes were, met too much resistance, backed off and lost the match. But now he really knows where the holes are and is confident he can pound away at them until Rafa submits? :shrug:

Anyway, a lot of tennis to be played until Roger gets another shot at Rafa's holes. Rafa could lose tomorrow or Friday. Roger might have told everyone about the holes.

Clay Death
06-03-2008, 12:48 AM
Funny how Nole probably needs it fast and dry, but Roger needs it slow and damp :)


Clay Monster will take both of them apart. it may take a while but consider it done.

i already know Fed`s game plan. its dinking and drop shots to throw Nadal`s rhythm and try to bring him into the net. he is also hoping for a lot mileage from his serve. in other words. its chicken shit tennis at its highest lever with drop shots and dinking.

none of that crap is going to work. there is no way Nadal is going to allow him to get away with garbage tennis. He will make Fed deal with him from the backcourt and off the ground.

Corey Feldman
06-03-2008, 12:59 AM
Nadal will make Nole pray for honorable death after an hour's play

luie
06-03-2008, 01:06 AM
Anything fed or novak tries will be useless in the end !!!! Nadal is genetically designed for clay.....You can't attack,,you can't defend...

Clay Death
06-03-2008, 01:08 AM
Nadal will make Nole pray for honorable death after an hour's play

affirmative. its prettty close to the truth. Djokovic did hang on for 3 hours and 3 minutes in Hamburg when they last played. that means it may take a little longer but death does come to Djokovic in this match. he is already assured of it.

Nadal dosnt really have the goods to blast somebody like Djokovic off the court so he will wear him down and break his spirit. its like a slow Chinese water torture and you are left completely helpless. all you can do is pray for death against the mighty clay monster on clay.

its best to pray for quick death as it is more honorable.

***Clay Monster is 38-0 in best of 5 sets foremats on clay.

luie
06-03-2008, 01:20 AM
Hamburg results have little bearings in RG ...Everyone is expecting novak to put up a fight but it will be nadal in straights..novaks performance have not been that great that he has the confidence to challenge BIG RAFA on home soil...

ThizServe
06-03-2008, 02:46 AM
after the last match
HELL NO

avocadoe
06-03-2008, 11:17 PM
I don't think ND can beat Nadal, this week, but I could be wrong. I don't think anyone out there can beat Nadal in the 3 out of 5 format unless he has a really bad hair day :) or those nasty blisters give him real trouble, well, he seems to run like the wind anyway. I don't care for Djokoivc's personality, but could change my mind, if he stops saying, "As the third player in the world...and...as the best player this year so far...and other statements to that effect.... He's like a robot to me 80 percent of the time, with dashes of humor, but maybe its a language thing, not sure, since I'm such an idiot and don't understand anything but English. I love Gulbis, have since the first time I saw him play. It was like that for me with Federer, too, love at first sight :) Nadal took a little longer, but he's the greatest competitive spirit I've seen in a loooooooooong time. I love the way he fights, and the, when its over turns into the sweeest guy on earth. Well one of them. I think in another year or two or three Djokovic might win the French. I hope Gulbis can come along now, and be a top tenner before long. Woh thought up calling him 'Swan". he really is, those white shorts billowing, and the long abdomina regiosn and small adorable head. He does glide. He needs more consistency, make a lot of good moves to net and volleys but at key moments whoops, bleep, into the net. Anyway...I hope he won't be another Baghdatis, so appealing, who didn't develop. I think he will do much better, more hunger for it. I do wonder what kind of 'crzy' he was/is, don't you?