Pigsarestupid

04-22-2008, 12:01 AM

Hello there. I am new here but I have read some stuff in this site for a while now. I just wanted to contribute with some odds for Federer against Nadal on clay only counting statistics from their previous meetings on clay, that is not depending on current form, the weather, the surface or how they matchup. Let me explain, we have 7 meetings between them on clay, in those 7 matches 26 sets was played, 8 were won by Federer and the rest by Nadal. Because Federer has won 31% of sets played, it should give Federer a 31% chanse to win a set against Nadal in future events where they face each other on clay. I think that because they have played each other so many times in quite a short time span the statistical ground for this kind of odds calculation is quite accurate.

So if they face each other in another RG final even with Federers current form if these odds are right and Federer has a 31% to win each set against Nadal the odds for the outcome of the match would be...

Federer dft Nadal in straight sets 3.0%

Federer dft Nadal in 4 sets 6.2 %

Federer dft Nadal in 5 sets 8.5 %

Federer dft Nadal 17.7%

Nadal dft Federer in straight sets 32.8%

Nadal dft Federer in 4 sets 30.6%

Nadal dft Federer in 5 sets 18.9%

Nadal dft Federer 82.3%

So this would mean Federer would have to play 4 straight RG finals against Nadal from now on to statisticaly be more than 50% to win a RG, that would give him a 54% chanse to win 1 out of the 4 finals.

So the odds are certanly agaist Federer but with more than 1 in 6 chanse to win against Nadal everytime they face each other in best of 5 I would say that his chanses are real but slim. Most other players like Djokovic have never won a set against Nadal on clay and therefor have 0% chanse to defeat Nadal only looking at their history and I would not be surprised if the real odds of Djokovic defeating Nadal on clay was less than 5% (Specialy taking into consideraion the manner Nadal has humiliated the serb in previous encounters) .

Nadals odds to win RG this year looking at his history against the rest of the tour should be more than 85% as few players except Federer has the skills to take a set from him. Lets say he wins 49 out of 50 matches on clay then he should have a 0.98 sqrt 7 odds to win RG which would give him a 86.8% odds to win RG. This is not taking into consideration that his defeats on clay has come when he was extremly tired against Federer and Andreev and that he has never lost in a best of 5 match. Real odds should be 90-95%, if his odds are 90% then his chanses to win another 4 straight RGs (that is if he continues to dominate the tour like today and never gets injured) would be 65%. I would say betting anything which gives more than 1.2 times the money on Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris is a good bet.

Ofcourse we have some unproven opponents like Davydenko who has only played one close match against him and Nalbandian who seems to handle Nadals topspin with unusual ease but never seems to get in Nadals side of the draw on clay. Mathematicaly you cant really get odds against these players, you probably would need a tennis brain to count the odds. I can personaly say that if either of those players where to face Nadal I would not bet on Nadal unless I got a good 1.5 times the money bet.

Finaly I would like to congratulate you all for the nice tennis discussions I have read here without contributing anything. I hope you dont find this too boring or take it too seriously, just some superficial number analysing from my side to kill some time.

So if they face each other in another RG final even with Federers current form if these odds are right and Federer has a 31% to win each set against Nadal the odds for the outcome of the match would be...

Federer dft Nadal in straight sets 3.0%

Federer dft Nadal in 4 sets 6.2 %

Federer dft Nadal in 5 sets 8.5 %

Federer dft Nadal 17.7%

Nadal dft Federer in straight sets 32.8%

Nadal dft Federer in 4 sets 30.6%

Nadal dft Federer in 5 sets 18.9%

Nadal dft Federer 82.3%

So this would mean Federer would have to play 4 straight RG finals against Nadal from now on to statisticaly be more than 50% to win a RG, that would give him a 54% chanse to win 1 out of the 4 finals.

So the odds are certanly agaist Federer but with more than 1 in 6 chanse to win against Nadal everytime they face each other in best of 5 I would say that his chanses are real but slim. Most other players like Djokovic have never won a set against Nadal on clay and therefor have 0% chanse to defeat Nadal only looking at their history and I would not be surprised if the real odds of Djokovic defeating Nadal on clay was less than 5% (Specialy taking into consideraion the manner Nadal has humiliated the serb in previous encounters) .

Nadals odds to win RG this year looking at his history against the rest of the tour should be more than 85% as few players except Federer has the skills to take a set from him. Lets say he wins 49 out of 50 matches on clay then he should have a 0.98 sqrt 7 odds to win RG which would give him a 86.8% odds to win RG. This is not taking into consideration that his defeats on clay has come when he was extremly tired against Federer and Andreev and that he has never lost in a best of 5 match. Real odds should be 90-95%, if his odds are 90% then his chanses to win another 4 straight RGs (that is if he continues to dominate the tour like today and never gets injured) would be 65%. I would say betting anything which gives more than 1.2 times the money on Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris is a good bet.

Ofcourse we have some unproven opponents like Davydenko who has only played one close match against him and Nalbandian who seems to handle Nadals topspin with unusual ease but never seems to get in Nadals side of the draw on clay. Mathematicaly you cant really get odds against these players, you probably would need a tennis brain to count the odds. I can personaly say that if either of those players where to face Nadal I would not bet on Nadal unless I got a good 1.5 times the money bet.

Finaly I would like to congratulate you all for the nice tennis discussions I have read here without contributing anything. I hope you dont find this too boring or take it too seriously, just some superficial number analysing from my side to kill some time.