What's more likely to happen? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

What's more likely to happen?

Farenhajt
01-28-2008, 08:21 PM
With Nole going up pointwise, at the expense of Federer and Nadal, which scenario you think is more likely to occur first?

Dimonator133
01-28-2008, 08:23 PM
With Nole going up pointwise, at the expense of Federer and Nadal, which scenario you think is more likely to occur first?

allow me to be the first to say, what???:confused::sad:

Farenhajt
01-28-2008, 08:24 PM
You should have waited for the poll.

l_mac
01-28-2008, 08:28 PM
With Nole going up pointwise, at the expense of Federer and Nadal, which scenario you think is more likely to occur first?


He hasn't gone up at the expense of Rafa :shrug: He has more points than he's ever had and is likely to become only the 2nd player to break the 6000 points barrier.

:)

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you mean Nole will win tournaments during the clay season, therefore taking points away from Rafa. ;)

vincayou
01-28-2008, 08:30 PM
Djoko number 1. More points on hardcourt than on clay to win. Nadal has more points now than Sampras ever had, but he might never be number 1. How ironic.

Dimonator133
01-28-2008, 08:35 PM
You should have waited for the poll.

trust me, I waited for a long time

l_mac
01-28-2008, 08:37 PM
trust me, I waited for a long time

You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

Bibberz
01-28-2008, 08:40 PM
Yikes. I think this might be the worst MTF burn ever.

You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

acionescu
01-28-2008, 08:43 PM
You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

I assume that you are that one person who voted for Rafa becoming No.1! :smooch:

P.S.Bring us back the ass, please!

platinum
01-28-2008, 08:44 PM
You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.



LOL :lol::lol:

l_mac
01-28-2008, 09:05 PM
I assume that you are that one person who voted for Rafa becoming No.1! :smooch:

P.S.Bring us back the ass, please!

The asses are back :shrug:

And no, I didn't vote for that option because I am not delusional :lol:

Even the most ardent Rafa supporter must see that Nole becoming #2 is more likely than Rafa becoming #1.

Federer is going to pick up enough points at IW/Miami and Rome to see him as #1 till at least after Wimbledon. No way he's picking up 80 points at the hc Masters this year.

Rafa has 3,605 points to defend till Canada.
Nole has 2,385
Fed has 2,625

:shrug:

Imagine Nole and Rafa both defend most of their IW/Miami points, but Nole gets a little closer with better results in the two Masters, Rotterdam and Dubai.

Say he's even 600 points behind going into the clay season. I can't imagine Rafa will defend his points at all 4 clay tournaments this year - say he drops Hamburg. Then Nole plays Hamburg and wins. That's the #2 spot there. And that's without Nole gaining any points in the other clay Masters. And Rafa keeping all his. At some point his clay dominance has to end. Not even end, just be slightly less spectacular.

It would be silly to argue that that isn't more likely than Rafa winning Rotterdam and Dubai, and Fed losing early in Dubai (which would be his last chance to snatch a week at #1 till .. ever probably :lol:) :sad:

So I'm not saying Nole will become #2, but it does appear more likely.

:(

l_mac
01-28-2008, 09:29 PM
trust me, I waited for a long time

You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

:wavey: Hi! :)

bad rep from Dimonutter "I waited at least 5 minutes you idiotic moron."

Check the posting times, you tool. :haha: :haha:

edit: btw, even if you think 5 minutes is a "long time" your future GFs are still going to be disappoined :)

scarecrows
01-28-2008, 09:34 PM
lolz, Dimonator pwned again

stebs
01-28-2008, 09:36 PM
I think it's quite close between the two. I hope that at some point we have a GS event where all three players are capable of finishing in each of the top 3 positions, especially if it is at the USO meaning the YE #1 would be in three way contention.

Jimnik
01-28-2008, 09:56 PM
There's unlikely to be any change anytime soon. Djokovic has the most points to defend in March while Federer almost none.

Scenario #1 is most likely to happen at some point during the clay season because even Nadal won't be able to win 4 clay events in 4 weeks. He'll have to drop either Barca, Rome or Hamburg with Djokovic probably taking advantage and winning one of them.

Off course everything will depend on form and, who knows, maybe Nalbandian can still be a factor. I don't see Davydenko, Ferrer or anyone else being a major factor.

l_mac
01-29-2008, 12:08 AM
With Nole going up pointwise, at the expense of Federer and Nadal, which scenario you think is more likely to occur first?


What do you think will happen, Fairweather? You never said.

Farenhajt
01-29-2008, 01:12 AM
I don't know what WILL happen, McMaleficent (you're so not going to hold this against me as a "prediction going bust" :)), but it's obvious that much of it hangs on clay season. And Nole's claycourt upgrades are still unknown. (To be precise: whether he and his quarters have devised some anti-Rafa procedures and strategies.) But by some logic and reasonable assumptions, I think the first one is more likely.

acionescu
01-29-2008, 06:43 PM
The asses are back :shrug:

And no, I didn't vote for that option because I am not delusional :lol:

Even the most ardent Rafa supporter must see that Nole becoming #2 is more likely than Rafa becoming #1.

Federer is going to pick up enough points at IW/Miami and Rome to see him as #1 till at least after Wimbledon. No way he's picking up 80 points at the hc Masters this year.

Rafa has 3,605 points to defend till Canada.
Nole has 2,385
Fed has 2,625

:shrug:

Imagine Nole and Rafa both defend most of their IW/Miami points, but Nole gets a little closer with better results in the two Masters, Rotterdam and Dubai.

Say he's even 600 points behind going into the clay season. I can't imagine Rafa will defend his points at all 4 clay tournaments this year - say he drops Hamburg. Then Nole plays Hamburg and wins. That's the #2 spot there. And that's without Nole gaining any points in the other clay Masters. And Rafa keeping all his. At some point his clay dominance has to end. Not even end, just be slightly less spectacular.

It would be silly to argue that that isn't more likely than Rafa winning Rotterdam and Dubai, and Fed losing early in Dubai (which would be his last chance to snatch a week at #1 till .. ever probably :lol:) :sad:

So I'm not saying Nole will become #2, but it does appear more likely.

:(

I know all that above :sad: but I hoped that a least one Rafa fan has the courage to be delusional. Now I see that there are 7! :worship:
Thank you for the pictures. I just cannot imagine you and happily read your posts without them. Why :shrug:?

hiperborejac
01-29-2008, 07:07 PM
First one is more likely to be after clay season.
The second one at the end of year!

BIGMARAT
01-29-2008, 07:19 PM
Everything is quite possible:

but for me, its easier for Nole to climb to number 2 than Rafa climbing to number 1.

Foxy
01-29-2008, 09:35 PM
How about both at the same time, meaning Federer third?
Theoretically possible...

Farenhajt
04-25-2008, 12:55 AM
Bump.

After everything that's happened in 2008 thus far, this is interesting again.

Merton
04-25-2008, 01:02 AM
Somehow option #3: Somebody overtakes Nole as the #3 player in the rankings has not been considered. I am not saying it is more likely than options #1 and 2 but it is not a zero probability event.

Farenhajt
04-25-2008, 01:09 AM
Somehow option #3: Somebody overtakes Nole as the #3 player in the rankings has not been considered. I am not saying it is more likely than options #1 and 2 but it is not a zero probability event.

Option C's probability being non-zero has no connection whatsoever to comparison of option A to option B. Sit down, an F.

EDIT: You're one of those bopper haters? Ok, a D (it's not your fault you're challenged)

Merton
04-25-2008, 01:15 AM
Option C's probability being non-zero has no connection whatsoever to comparison of option A to option B. Sit down, an F.

Teach me more about probability theory Prof. Farenhajt. In the village where I come from, village elders tend to describe probability spaces as well as possible before estimating probabilities of events in the space.

EDIT: No, I am not a Djokovic hater, though that is irrelevant with respect to the question here.

Okonsky
04-25-2008, 01:16 AM
Another useless thread and waste of our virtual paper.....

Clay Death
04-25-2008, 01:20 AM
The asses are back :shrug:

And no, I didn't vote for that option because I am not delusional :lol:

Even the most ardent Rafa supporter must see that Nole becoming #2 is more likely than Rafa becoming #1.

Federer is going to pick up enough points at IW/Miami and Rome to see him as #1 till at least after Wimbledon. No way he's picking up 80 points at the hc Masters this year.

Rafa has 3,605 points to defend till Canada.
Nole has 2,385
Fed has 2,625

:shrug:

Imagine Nole and Rafa both defend most of their IW/Miami points, but Nole gets a little closer with better results in the two Masters, Rotterdam and Dubai.

Say he's even 600 points behind going into the clay season. I can't imagine Rafa will defend his points at all 4 clay tournaments this year - say he drops Hamburg. Then Nole plays Hamburg and wins. That's the #2 spot there. And that's without Nole gaining any points in the other clay Masters. And Rafa keeping all his. At some point his clay dominance has to end. Not even end, just be slightly less spectacular.

It would be silly to argue that that isn't more likely than Rafa winning Rotterdam and Dubai, and Fed losing early in Dubai (which would be his last chance to snatch a week at #1 till .. ever probably :lol:) :sad:

So I'm not saying Nole will become #2, but it does appear more likely.

:(

here is the scenario and learn to live with folks:

both the Clay Monster and Fed can only lose points from here to Canada. the pressure is simply immense on both to hol on to their rankings.

given Fed`s current form, i dont see him making the finals of Roland Garros. he will also go out early here in Monte Carlo. he could gain a few points in Rome but it wont offset the points that he will be losing.

Nadal has to win everything in sight on clay. too tall an order. he has had knee issues and is not as fit this year as in the years past. could lose a match somewhere but will peak to take Rome and Roland Garros. should be able do defend his points here in Monte Carlo but Wimby may be questionable. time will tell.

Djokovic can only gain points and may take over the #2 spot after Wimby.

end of story. Nadal has to come back with a stronger all around game if he wants the #1 spot next year.

Farenhajt
04-25-2008, 11:02 AM
Teach me more about probability theory Prof. Farenhajt. In the village where I come from, village elders tend to describe probability spaces as well as possible before estimating probabilities of events in the space.

Q: Who is taller - Novak or Marko Djokovic?

A: Wait, there's also Djordje Djokovic to account for.

:retard:

Herdwick
04-25-2008, 11:05 AM
Somehow option #3: Somebody overtakes Nole as the #3 player in the rankings has not been considered. I am not saying it is more likely than options #1 and 2 but it is not a zero probability event.

Indeed - some of us in the Nole camp are keeping a close eye on Davy...and (whispers) Nalbandian

Farenhajt
04-25-2008, 12:55 PM
Indeed - some of us in the Nole camp are keeping a close eye on Davy...and (whispers) Nalbandian

If he intends to be #1, he'll have to sharpen his knives on all the strongest contenders in top 20 - therefore, sooner or later he has to find the solution to Nalby. No need to fret, it's all part of growing up :)

Tommy fan
04-25-2008, 01:47 PM
Nadal takung the no.1 spot due to Federer losing points

Johnny Groove
04-25-2008, 02:07 PM
You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

Oh damn :spit: Absolutely brilliant Linda :yeah:

Merton
04-25-2008, 05:38 PM
Q: Who is taller - Novak or Marko Djokovic?

A: Wait, there's also Djordje Djokovic to account for.

:retard:

Prof. Farenhajt, you disappoint me, it seems you have not fully understood how complicated the question you ask is. The question relates to the future realizations of three correlated stochastic processes:

-# of ranking points of Roger Federer. Call it S_1
-# of ranking points of Rafal Nadal. Call it S_2
-# of ranking points of Novak Djokovic. Call it S_3

The question is what is the probability of a stopping time -call it tau_1- "# of ranking points of Rafael Nadal exceeding # of ranking points of Novak Djokovic" exceeding another stopping time -call it tau_2- "# of ranking points of Novak Djokovic exceeding # of ranking points of Rafael Nadal".

The rest of the tour is clearly relevant. For example, given how close things are between rankings 4 and, say, 15, a player that gets hot might impact all three S_1, S_2, S_3. Furthermore, there is the added complication of estimating the probability of injuries. You cannot claim that the possibility of ANY other player surpassing Djokovic ranking will not affect tau_1 and tau_2 without formally proving it.

If you can provide a model that generates estimates of these probabilities, there are bookies out there that would be interested hearing from you. They would be willing to pay something like $300/hour of your consulting time. However, it is clear that making trivial examples like in your post I quoted is closer to your capabilities.

Indeed - some of us in the Nole camp are keeping a close eye on Davy...and (whispers) Nalbandian

Yes, just ignore the entire rest of the tour... starting from losing in R2 of a masters as a defending champion.

l_mac
05-11-2008, 05:33 PM
Even the most ardent Rafa supporter must see that Nole becoming #2 is more likely than Rafa becoming #1.

Federer is going to pick up enough points at IW/Miami and Rome to see him as #1 till at least after Wimbledon. No way he's picking up 80 points at the hc Masters this year.

Rafa has 3,605 points to defend till Canada.
Nole has 2,385
Fed has 2,625

:shrug:

Imagine Nole and Rafa both defend most of their IW/Miami points, but Nole gets a little closer with better results in the two Masters, Rotterdam and Dubai.

Say he's even 600 points behind going into the clay season. I can't imagine Rafa will defend his points at all 4 clay tournaments this year - say he drops Hamburg. Then Nole plays Hamburg and wins. That's the #2 spot there. And that's without Nole gaining any points in the other clay Masters. And Rafa keeping all his. At some point his clay dominance has to end. Not even end, just be slightly less spectacular.

It would be silly to argue that that isn't more likely than Rafa winning Rotterdam and Dubai, and Fed losing early in Dubai (which would be his last chance to snatch a week at #1 till .. ever probably :lol:) :sad:

So I'm not saying Nole will become #2, but it does appear more likely.

:(

:worship:

Not exactly right, but pretty near.

l_mac
07-07-2008, 12:14 AM
Unbelievable effort from Rafa this clay and grass season.

Ashamed of myself for doubting.

Merton
07-08-2008, 11:27 PM
Well, the points just before IW this year were:

Federer 6330
Nadal 5980
Djokovic 5130

The points now, with the difference that I have subtracted Nadal's points from Stuttgart 2007 and Djokovic points from Umag 2007 are:

Federer 6600
Nadal 5830
Djokovic 4930

groundstroke
07-08-2008, 11:32 PM
If Nadal does well at the US Open, Federer will be #2.

Albop
07-08-2008, 11:46 PM
You waited 2 minutes you idiot.

I pity your future GFs if that qualifies as a long time.

:worship:

l_mac
08-24-2008, 12:08 AM
If Nadal does well at the US Open, Federer will be #2.

Didn't even have to wait that long :rocker2:

leng jai
08-24-2008, 12:16 AM
I clicked this thread thinking Farenhajt had returned. Alas :sad:

l_mac
08-24-2008, 12:18 AM
I clicked this thread thinking Farenhajt had returned. Alas :sad:

Sorry :hug:

But get real, he'd never bump this thread :lol: Novak has let him down badly :sad:

platinum
08-24-2008, 12:42 AM
MTF polls, the ultimate JINXER.... :haha:

Merton
08-24-2008, 02:27 AM
I clicked this thread thinking Farenhajt had returned. Alas :sad:

Only a question of time before Faren and Alo return, hopefully it will be on time to provide competition against CD for the ACC.

~Maya~
08-24-2008, 04:03 AM
:lol: