federer secures #1 ranking for now, take that rafatards [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

federer secures #1 ranking for now, take that rafatards

ugotlobbed
01-23-2008, 10:49 AM
haha!

Sjengster
01-23-2008, 10:52 AM
Thanks for that. What is it, 4 weeks until he's under pressure again in Dubai? And if things go against him here it could be out of his hands there.

scarecrows
01-23-2008, 10:54 AM
Nadal will play Rotterdam also I think

Apemant
01-23-2008, 11:07 AM
Nadal will play Rotterdam also I think

His 5th best is 55, and if he wins AO he'll trail by 100 points (assuming Nole beats Fed - must add that I find that scenario extremely unlikely). So he needs 155 points from Rotterdam, which equates to final.

But then again, Fed must defend all the points from Dubai, and even if he wins it again, he can't really prevent Nadal of reaching the final at least. So, in the case of Nadal beating Jo and then Joe, it's likely he'll assume #1 for a week or so, until IW & Miami, where he defends 500+125 points and Roger just 5+75.

BlueSwan
01-23-2008, 11:07 AM
If Federer loses to Djokovic and Nadal wins the AO, his lead will only be 100 points and Nadal will likely become #1 during february.

t0x
01-23-2008, 11:09 AM
Hrmm I'm sure Fed will be happy with 4 consecutive years.

But yeah, if Djoko beats him, he could very well lose number 1 for a bit (however he should regain it in IW/Miami).

adee-gee
01-23-2008, 11:13 AM
We've waited patiently for 209 weeks, we can wait a little longer ;)

Enjoy it while it lasts :cool:

Apemant
01-23-2008, 11:15 AM
We've waited patiently for 209 weeks, we can wait a little longer ;)

Enjoy it while it lasts :cool:

Thanks, we did, but we will also enjoy the memory of it for the long years to come, until someone surpasses it. :ras: :nerner: :devil:

Commander Data
01-23-2008, 11:16 AM
What if Federer wins AO. how secure is he then? will it likely be enough til miami?

Apemant
01-23-2008, 11:20 AM
What if Federer wins AO. how secure is he then? will it likely be enough til miami?

Are you nuts? If he wins AO he's all but guaranteed to remain #1 till Wimby, and probably even after that.

Exodus
01-23-2008, 11:38 AM
nadal will NEVER be no. 1 nadal is going to lose of lot of points during the clay season. Too many people can beat him now even on clay.

Commander Data
01-23-2008, 11:45 AM
Are you nuts? If he wins AO he's all but guaranteed to remain #1 till Wimby, and probably even after that.

hard to judge about myself if I'm nuts...

But I mean if he loses early in Dubai und Nadal wins it plus Notterdam . i thought maybe then the gap is gone....

scarecrows
01-23-2008, 11:59 AM
hard to judge about myself if I'm nuts...

But I mean if he loses early in Dubai und Nadal wins it plus Notterdam . i thought maybe then the gap is gone....

when we say that Nadal will be no.1 we take the worst case scenario for Fed (losing in SF and Nadal winning the title). If Fed wins the title (Nadal would obviously be finalist) the gap would be too big for Nadal to have a chance even if Fed loses all matches till IW and Nadal wins them all

Sean.J.S.
01-23-2008, 12:04 PM
Well Rafatards shouldn't exactly have counted on Blake to get their hopes up. :o

l_mac
01-23-2008, 12:15 PM
Well Rafatards shouldn't exactly have counted on Blake to get their hopes up. :o

Oh, we were though. Nadal's forum here has been buzzing with the expectation that Blake (or Berdych) would take Fed out. Can't believe it hasn't worked out that way.

This has truly silenced us.
We thought #1 was a lock.

:sobbing:

:rolleyes:

Apemant
01-23-2008, 12:15 PM
hard to judge about myself if I'm nuts...

But I mean if he loses early in Dubai und Nadal wins it plus Notterdam . i thought maybe then the gap is gone....

Hey, sorry about the nuts bit, I didn't mean it offensive :) - more like casual ;)

Anyway, as scarecrows explained, if Fed wins AO he'll be min. 950 points ahead, and he only defends 300 from Dubai and then mere 5+75 from IW+Miami, something he should definitely improve over. While Nadal has some chances to improve his tally between AO and IW, but then he must defend 500+125 points there, and after that it gets even worse, as he has minimalistic chances to improve his score until after RG, defending 2 AMS wins, 1 AMS final, Barcelona win, and RG win (2650 points). Sure, Federer has a lot to defend in that period as well (1550 points), but who has proven to be able to beat him on clay except Rafa?

l_mac
01-23-2008, 12:27 PM
Hey, sorry about the nuts bit, I didn't mean it offensive :) - more like casual ;)

Anyway, as scarecrows explained, if Fed wins AO he'll be min. 950 points ahead, and he only defends 300 from Dubai and then mere 5+75 from IW+Miami, something he should definitely improve over. While Nadal has some chances to improve his tally between AO and IW, but then he must defend 500+125 points there, and after that it gets even worse, as he has minimalistic chances to improve his score until after RG, defending 2 AMS wins, 1 AMS final, Barcelona win, and RG win (2650 points). Sure, Federer has a lot to defend in that period as well (1550 points), but who has proven to be able to beat him on clay except Rafa?

Volandri? :shrug:

Rafa won't be defending all those clay points this year. 4 years of total clay dominance is unrealistic.

Adler
01-23-2008, 12:32 PM
Imagine that he's taken the top spot from the hands of Roddick

adee-gee
01-23-2008, 12:33 PM
nadal will NEVER be no. 1 nadal is going to lose of lot of points during the clay season. Too many people can beat him now even on clay.
:lol: who exactly?

Commander Data
01-23-2008, 12:47 PM
Hey, sorry about the nuts bit, I didn't mean it offensive :) - more like casual ;)

Anyway, as scarecrows explained, if Fed wins AO he'll be min. 950 points ahead, and he only defends 300 from Dubai and then mere 5+75 from IW+Miami, something he should definitely improve over. While Nadal has some chances to improve his tally between AO and IW, but then he must defend 500+125 points there, and after that it gets even worse, as he has minimalistic chances to improve his score until after RG, defending 2 AMS wins, 1 AMS final, Barcelona win, and RG win (2650 points). Sure, Federer has a lot to defend in that period as well (1550 points), but who has proven to be able to beat him on clay except Rafa?

no offense taken. thanks for the explanation!

sawan66278
01-23-2008, 12:59 PM
What if Federer loses in the semis, Rafa makes the final, but Djokovic wins the whole thing?

juninhOH
01-23-2008, 01:10 PM
why is 4 years of dominance on clay impossible? Federer has pretty much done it during the whole calendar year. Not winning everything obviously, but winning the most important tourneys.

Apemant
01-23-2008, 01:27 PM
What if Federer loses in the semis, Rafa makes the final, but Djokovic wins the whole thing?

Then Rafa trails by 400 points, and Nole is further 1000-some points behind.

Nole also has a ton of points to defend till the clay season; over 1000. So I guess Rafa's #2 is pretty safe too, for the time being.

BlueSwan
01-23-2008, 01:47 PM
Rafa won't be defending all those clay points this year. 4 years of total clay dominance is unrealistic.
I'm not so sure about that. There aren't that many truly great clay court specialists around these days. The guys that Rafa loses to on hard are nearly all hardhitting guys who loves hard courts. None of those guys stand much of a chance against him on clay. I just don't see how any defensive player would be able to beat Rafa on clay.

Basically I think only three players could potentially beat him on clay: First and foremost Nalbandian, if he brings his A-game. Federer in JesusFed mode. Possibly Ferrer on a great day.

Rafa will probably lose one match on clay or so and more or less defend his points from 2007.

Exodus
01-23-2008, 01:54 PM
I'm not so sure about that. There aren't that many truly great clay court specialists around these days. The guys that Rafa loses to on hard are nearly all hardhitting guys who loves hard courts. None of those guys stand much of a chance against him on clay. I just don't see how any defensive player would be able to beat Rafa on clay.

Basically I think only three players could potentially beat him on clay: First and foremost Nalbandian, if he brings his A-game. Federer in JesusFed mode. Possibly Ferrer on a great day.

Rafa will probably lose one match on clay or so and more or less defend his points from 2007.

and safin in his safinator mode :cool:

tennizen
01-23-2008, 02:25 PM
As a Nadal fan, I never for once believed that Nadal would take no. 1 ranking this AO. I don't know abt the rest but as a Nadal fan I have more confidence in Fed than in Nadal:lol: However much I dislike Djokovic, I am most worried about him now. I think he has the best chance of winning among the semifinalists. But probably things will be the same and Fed will reassuringly win over Djokovic and the natural order prevails;)

calvinhobbes
01-23-2008, 03:51 PM
why is 4 years of dominance on clay impossible? Federer has pretty much done it during the whole calendar year. Not winning everything obviously, but winning the most important tourneys.

Problem with clay is that its season isn´t spread along many months. So Nadal must concentrate his efforts in contiguous tournaments. This poses a higher stress on him, IMHO.:D:D

l_mac
01-23-2008, 03:55 PM
why is 4 years of dominance on clay impossible? Federer has pretty much done it during the whole calendar year. Not winning everything obviously, but winning the most important tourneys.

I didn't say it was impossible, I said it was unlikely. Will he be the favourite for the FO? Yes. But I don't think he'll get as many points as last year from the European Clay season.

Apemant
01-23-2008, 04:02 PM
I didn't say it was impossible, I said it was unlikely. Will he be the favourite for the FO? Yes. But I don't think he'll get as many points as last year from the European Clay season.

He's actually come an inch from taking the absolute maximum. :eek:

stebs
01-23-2008, 04:03 PM
and safin in his safinator mode :cool:

Safin has similar chances as me to beat Nadal on clay.

Exodus
01-23-2008, 04:05 PM
Safin has similar chances as me to beat Nadal on clay.

i believe safin will have a better chance than you for sure ;)

Apemant
01-23-2008, 04:05 PM
Safin has similar chances as me to beat Nadal on clay.

You mean, 0% is the same as any other 0% ? :devil:

stebs
01-23-2008, 04:06 PM
i believe safin will have a better chance than you for sure ;)

Yes, I said similar not exactly the same but we're talking fractions of a percent here. Obviously I will not be playing Nadal so I have 0% chance, Safin is between 0 and 1%.

scoobs
01-23-2008, 04:07 PM
Being a long-term Safin fan seems to be a triumph of blind faith over factual evidence.

Apemant
01-23-2008, 04:08 PM
Yes, I said similar not exactly the same but we're talking fractions of a percent here. Obviously I will not be playing Nadal so I have 0% chance, Safin is between 0 and 1%.

As opposed to if you actually played him, then you'd have above 0% ? :devil:

Sorry, couldn't resist with the way you phrased it ;)

stebs
01-23-2008, 04:12 PM
As opposed to if you actually played him, then you'd have above 0% ? :devil:

Sorry, couldn't resist with the way you phrased it ;)

Retire still counts as a victory so yes I would have more than 0% chance of beating Rafael Nadal on clay if I were to play him.

Black Adam
01-23-2008, 04:21 PM
I remember Wimbledon final 2004. He was only 2 sets from losing it and.....sigh.

Metis
01-23-2008, 04:24 PM
haha!

Well, if Nadal ends up winning AO, I doubt the 'Rafatards' will be too sad about the ranking ;).

Apemant
01-23-2008, 04:27 PM
Retire still counts as a victory so yes I would have more than 0% chance of beating Rafael Nadal on clay if I were to play him.

Touche

crouching
01-23-2008, 04:48 PM
OK, let's look at the numbers for the battle for No. 1 after Dubai....

Points after Australian Open

Federer
W = 7180
F = 6880
SF = 6630

Nadal
W = 6530
F = 6230
SF = 5980

If Fededer wins the title then the gap will be too big for Nadal to overcome by Dubai, since Federer will be 950 or 1200 points ahead.

Too many permutations!

We will look at the following scenarios where there are hundreds of permutations of possibilities:
1. Nadal wins AO, Federer runner-up (difference of 350 points)
2. Nadal wins AO, Federer loses SF (difference of 100 points)
3. Nadal loses AO final, Federer loses SF (difference of 400 points)

I have calculated Federer's and Nadal's possible points after Rotterdam and Dubai, based on their possible points resulting from each of the three scenarios (thank you Microsoft Excel).

The raw data is in the PDF attached to this posting. You can use the table in the PDF file to look at the number of points for each player, depending on their performances in Australia, Rotterdam and Dubai.

Example 1

To use the tables in PDF file, let's have some examples...

Let's say Scenario 1 takes place, with Nadal beating Federer in the final of the Australian Open.

Subsequently, let's say Federer wins Dubai and Nadal is a semi-finalist in Dubai and wins Rotterdam. So you will refer to the table under "Scenario 1" and look for Federer's points under "D-W" and for Nadal's points under "D-SF & R-W".

You will see that Federer will have 6880 points and Nadal 6785 points. So Federer hangs onto the No. 1 spot after Dubai.

Example 2

Using another example, let's say Scenario 2 takes place, with Nadal winning the Australian Open and Federer losing in the semi-finals.

Subsequently, let's say that Federer loses in the Dubai final, and Nadal is a semi-finalist in Dubai and a quarter-finalist in Rotterdam. So you will refer to the table under "Scenario 2" and look for Federer's points under "D-F" and for Nadal's points under "D-SF & R-QF".

You will see that Federer will have 6540 points and Nadal 6595 points. So Nadal has more points than Federer becomes No. 1 after Dubai.

Remote Possibility

There is one remote possibility if both Federer and Nadal were to lose in the semi-finals of the Australian Open, giving a gap of 650 points for Dubai.

Nadal can gain 420 points from winning Dubai and Rotterdam and Federer can lose 300 points from losing first round in Dubai, so there is an overall swing of 720 points at the maximum, which will be theoretically sufficient for Nadal to be No. 1.

In terms of actual results, Nadal could get to No. 1 by winning both Dubai and Rotterdam (6400 points) and hoping that Federer does not go beyond the quarterfinals of Dubai (6390 points or fewer).

-----------

Conclusion

Of course, if Tsonga beats Nadal tomorrow, or if Federer wins the Australian Open on Sunday, then this discussion is probably pointless and I would have wasted all my time, but whatever..... It only took Excel (and I) about 10 minutes to work this out. Enjoy!

:)

tennisgal_001
01-23-2008, 05:25 PM
^^Wow crouching that was an awesome job, thanks!

DrJules
01-23-2008, 06:37 PM
What if Federer loses in the semis, Rafa makes the final, but Djokovic wins the whole thing?

An awful scenario to consider, but very likely.

BlueSwan
01-23-2008, 06:46 PM
OK, let's look at the numbers for the battle for No. 1 after Dubai....
:)

Excellent work!! :worship:

jasmin
01-23-2008, 07:00 PM
I don't think there should be gloating. It still may happened for Rafa. However, my thing is that I think it's silly that someone who's won 2-3 slams out of 4 would be so close in points to someone who's won one...and for how many years in a row. There should be a bigger difference in points. Also how many other tournaments did fed win which included the season ending one.

l_mac
01-23-2008, 07:04 PM
An awful scenario to consider, but very likely.


Are you not a fan?

l_mac
01-23-2008, 07:12 PM
I don't think there should be gloating. It still may happened for Rafa. However, my thing is that I think it's silly that someone who's won 2-3 slams out of 4 would be so close in points to someone who's won one...and for how many years in a row. There should be a bigger difference in points. Also how many other tournaments did fed win which included the season ending one.


If Nadal won the AO he'd have 2 Slams and so would Fed. How could their points total not be close? Fret not. Nadal won't win Oz, so they won't be that close. You do understand that the rankings only take in the last 52 weeks, right? So Fed's 2004-2006 record matters not a jot.

I think Fed won 8 titles last year, including TMC.

DrJules
01-23-2008, 07:21 PM
We've waited patiently for 209 weeks, we can wait a little longer ;)

Enjoy it while it lasts :cool:

The next few months may be the best chance he ever has.

megadeth
01-23-2008, 09:53 PM
a lot for fed to look forward to after dubai... he's got hardly any points to defend except for MC and Hamburg. he stands to gain a lot in IW, Miami, and Rome

Marek.
01-23-2008, 10:15 PM
If Nadal wins the AO, I doubt he or his fans will be sad that he's not number one (yet).

guga2120
01-23-2008, 10:26 PM
Too many people can beat him now even on clay.:spit:

Bibberz
01-23-2008, 10:45 PM
I just think it's great that we're even talking about Federer "securing" the #1 spot. It had been a foregone conclusion for so long.

Blondie1985
01-23-2008, 11:16 PM
LOL... thanks to the *ridiculous* draw rafa will get to
the final by beating nieminem types.. rafa seriously don't deserve to be in the finals!!!


I don't care about the #1, djoko or fed will beat him easily in the finals

Angeltroy
01-23-2008, 11:32 PM
:bigclap:Roger will be # 1 FOREVER:bigclap:

BIGMARAT
01-23-2008, 11:35 PM
No matter what happens, Federe is the number one- 3 of 4 slams in last 3 or 4 years.

gogogirl
01-23-2008, 11:37 PM
All,

W/Nole in the mix legitimately (And others improving and learning how to play Fed and gunning for him as we speak), I think Rafa will take over the throne for a time if Nole doesn't beat him to it. How long either of them stays there though will continue to be up for debate.

Merton
01-23-2008, 11:37 PM
Rankings mean crap, the cool thing will be for Roger to pass the # of weeks at #1 rank record of Sampras and he has excellent chances to do that regardless of what happens.

FedFan_2007
01-23-2008, 11:40 PM
Nadal will be a transitional #1 until Nole is ready for his long reign beginning in 2013(conveniently Roger retires in 2012 as YE #1)

FedFan_2007
01-23-2008, 11:45 PM
No doubt that Roger's consecutive #1 weeks will end pretty soon.

adee-gee
01-24-2008, 12:01 AM
:bigclap:Roger will be # 1 FOREVER:bigclap:
:worship:

groundstroke
01-24-2008, 02:09 AM
Doubting Roger Federer doesn't usually pay of very well. These Rafatards need to learn that.

Corey Feldman
01-24-2008, 02:25 AM
If Fed doesnt win this event, he should take a WC for Rotterdam or Marseille - or both, if he wants to keep that No.1 streak till after Dubai.

Merton
01-24-2008, 02:44 AM
If Fed doesnt win this event, he should take a WC for Rotterdam or Marseille - or both, if he wants to keep that No.1 streak till after Dubai.

It is obvious that it is not his highest priority any more, otherwise he would have played more optionals in 2007.

Fedex
01-24-2008, 04:49 AM
I remember Wimbledon final 2004. He was only 2 sets from losing it and.....sigh.

I don't think Federer would have lost his number one ranking even if he had lost that match. I'm not 100% sure, but I think he would've still retained number one.

FedFan_2007
01-24-2008, 06:54 AM
It's obvious Fed isn't obsessed about the #1 ranking anymore. Let Nadal have a few weeks, YE#1 counts and winning slams. However I have to admit the idea of Fed not as #1 is almost sacrilege.

Tchovs
01-24-2008, 08:05 AM
http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x315/calzelunghe_2007_1/rogernr1.gif

From longsocks, member of rogerfedrer.com Enjoy!:)

Kuhne
01-24-2008, 09:13 AM
I wouldnt worry. Nadal wont make the final

Art&Soul
01-24-2008, 09:19 AM
http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x315/calzelunghe_2007_1/rogernr1.gif

From longsocks, member of rogerfedrer.com Enjoy!:)
Longsocks is just genius like ROGI ;) ROGER no1 till retire :devil:

Kuhne
01-24-2008, 09:22 AM
I am enjoying this match a lot

Beforehand
01-24-2008, 09:31 AM
It is obvious that it is not his highest priority any more, otherwise he would have played more optionals in 2007.

Though Nadal could come back and win this match, it looks like that is an unfair thing to say yet again, though. There's really no point in Roger wasting energy in optionals if he continues to perform the way he performs in slams/Masters, and OUTperforms even Nadal. I mean, with two optionals, if Nadal loses, he will leave here with a 650 point lead, or anywhere up to 1,200, with only 300 to defend before Rafa's orgy of point defense.

JustmeUK
01-24-2008, 09:34 AM
well given that homeboy Rafa is being given the beat down at the moment it's safe to say that Fed's no 1 streak will continue through till after wimbledon. and we all know how much Rafa loves hard court.. heck Fed's a lock for no 1 all year :D

The Magic Hand
01-24-2008, 10:16 AM
Yeah, I think if anyone could now take Federer's number one spot this year, it's Djokovic ... or who knows, Tsonga.

barbadosan
01-24-2008, 10:51 AM
OK, let's look at the numbers for the battle for No. 1 after Dubai....

Points after Australian Open

Federer
W = 7180
F = 6880
SF = 6630

Nadal
W = 6530
F = 6230
SF = 5980

If Fededer wins the title then the gap will be too big for Nadal to overcome by Dubai, since Federer will be 950 or 1200 points ahead.



Of course, if Tsonga beats Nadal tomorrow, or if Federer wins the Australian Open on Sunday, then this discussion is probably pointless and I would have wasted all my time, but whatever..... It only took Excel (and I) about 10 minutes to work this out. Enjoy!

:)

:) Guess you had an inkling of what might happen! But no - it wasn't wasted time; much appreciated :)

tennisgal_001
01-24-2008, 11:42 AM
Let's crunch these numbers after Wimbledon then (though I doubt we'll need to.)

crouching
01-24-2008, 12:10 PM
Depending on the results from early spring until post-RG, there may be a need to crunch numbers again, although unlikely.

However, I do suspect that any potential number crunching may be a bit more interesting, due to the possibility of including Novak Djokovic into the variables!

tennisgal_001
01-24-2008, 12:19 PM
Depending on the results from early spring until post-RG, there may be a need to crunch numbers again, although unlikely.

However, I do suspect that any potential number crunching may be a bit more interesting, due to the possibility of including Novak Djokovic into the variables!

You should change your name to crunching :p

densuprun
01-24-2008, 03:04 PM
Depending on the results from early spring until post-RG, there may be a need to crunch numbers again

Absolutely. The battle for #2 has begun!

Federerhingis
01-24-2008, 03:54 PM
nadal will NEVER be no. 1 nadal is going to lose of lot of points during the clay season. Too many people can beat him now even on clay.

See now this is silly and premature to assume just because he's not able to win big on hard courts other than Indian Wells and Madrid (all super slow and Canada (he has won on all the slowest playing hard court tournies) that he will lose his momentum and supremacy on clay.

We have not even seen him play on clay yet so that's just silly, besides he is still the clear favorite on any clay court tournament, his game is still perfectly suited for clay and he is most comfortable on clay court surface. Until this is not the case, if and only if he finds a way to lose before the final at Monte Carlo then we can say he's starting to lose it on clay. For now it has not happened and I don't see it happening any time soon.

JediFed
01-24-2008, 04:04 PM
It is obvious that it is not his highest priority any more, otherwise he would have played more optionals in 2007


Dunno. He said he wanted to match sampras, so that means he would have to stay there another 2 years, this and next year to get that 6 Year End number one. He also needs another 80+ weeks as number one in his career to match sampras, and there's still quite a gap between Lendl, Connors, Sampras and him. Next year I can see him being less concerned, assuming he keeps number one until then. This year? without a doubt it's high on the list to hold and maintain his place.

I think he's more worried about keeping his placement up in the slams and going the distance, then doing what Nadal did and overplaying in optionals. His big challenge right now is staying healthy and injury free for the next three years or so, and you won't be able to do that if you do what Nadal did.

juninhOH
01-24-2008, 04:10 PM
80 weeks goes bye fast. Federer will have no less than 300 weeks in the end of his career. I'm only not sure if he will win 14+ slams, because slams area really unpredictable. You don't know when you'll stop winning them. Take a look at guys like McEnroe, Connors, Lendl, and tell me how many slams they've won after their 26.

[edit] it would be pretty good if he got 6 straight yearend #1 tho.

DrJules
01-24-2008, 06:13 PM
Nadal may have seen his best chance to be number 1 pass.

DDrago2
01-24-2008, 06:19 PM
Nadal may have seen his best chance to be number 1 pass.

I agree

Metis
01-24-2008, 08:47 PM
Is it just me or has the whole AO-related ranking issue been a concern to everyone but Nadal fans? :lol:

calvinhobbes
01-24-2008, 09:21 PM
Nadal may have seen his best chance to be number 1 pass.

On paper, yes. But the real challenge was to win over Roger or Djoko on this surface. Tsonga only helped to show this impossibility. In other words, the best chance of Rafa to become No. 1 is when he adapts his play to HC and shows versatility between different systems and strategies. He continues being uni-dimensional, as Roger pointed out. On the other side, he can continue winning points on clay at every MM tournament we may imagine, but it only will accelerate his burning. No way in trying to have points enough to be No. 1 without spreading them evenly along all seasons, as Roger has done.

JediFed
01-24-2008, 09:41 PM
Depends. He could always do what Borg did and win Wimbledon. That would put him over.

The real concern for Nadal is a decline and a loss of points for the rest of the year. He's had a good year so far his best one yet, with a SF at the Australian Open. He's not reached his peak.

The only question now I think is how high is his ceiling? Will he be able to pass Federer before he starts declining? Will Federer's decline be steeper then his? It could be entirely possible for Federer to lose points on hard and then split them up while Nadal keeps his up and becomes number 1 by default.

l_mac
01-24-2008, 10:21 PM
and becomes number 1 by default.

:haha: By default??

:haha:

tennisgal_001
01-25-2008, 05:15 PM
We will look at the following scenarios where there are hundreds of permutations of possibilities:
1. Nadal wins AO, Federer runner-up (difference of 350 points)
2. Nadal wins AO, Federer loses SF (difference of 100 points)
3. Nadal loses AO final, Federer loses SF (difference of 400 points)



So where does that put us now?

4. Nadal and Federer lose their respective SF's (difference of 650 points)

Beforehand
01-25-2008, 05:19 PM
650 point difference.

tennisgal_001
01-25-2008, 05:22 PM
^^I meant after Dubai, IW, and Miami.

Beforehand
01-25-2008, 05:37 PM
It means it's going to be difficult for Rafa to catch Roger before then, and then Rafa has an orgy of points until RG. I'd say it's pretty unlikely he catches Roger before the Wimbledon, depending on how deep each of them get in the events until then, which is anyone's guess, really.

l_mac
01-25-2008, 05:40 PM
Judio made a post in the rankings thread taking off all their points until the clay season starts.

Fed still has a healthy lead. :)

Beforehand
01-25-2008, 05:42 PM
Pfft. Who needs a quantitative approach when you can get my super-nuanced qualitative rankings analysis? :o

"Roger...if he wins some stuff, his rank will be better than if he doesn't, unless Nadal wins some bigger stuff."

:inlove:

l_mac
01-25-2008, 05:46 PM
Pfft. Who needs a quantitative approach when you can get my super-nuanced qualitative rankings analysis? :o

"Roger...if he wins some stuff, his rank will be better than if he doesn't, unless Nadal wins some bigger stuff."

:inlove:


I prefer that method, for sure :lol:

I have serious issues with the ranking system. There's no extra points for "trying really hard" or "looking really good" :(

Judio has started to include Nole in the scenarios :bigcry: Dark times.

tennisgal_001
01-25-2008, 05:49 PM
Pfft. Who needs a quantitative approach when you can get my super-nuanced qualitative rankings analysis? :o

"Roger...if he wins some stuff, his rank will be better than if he doesn't, unless Nadal wins some bigger stuff."

:inlove:

Post of the day :lol:

Beforehand
01-25-2008, 05:52 PM
I prefer that method, for sure :lol:

I have serious issues with the ranking system. There's no extra points for "trying really hard" or "looking really good" :(

Judio has started to include Nole in the scenarios :bigcry: Dark times.

:rolls:

HEADLINE:
FEDERER FALLS TO #6 RANKING
Embarrassing Shiny Manbag Moves Nadal to Top Spot

l_mac
01-25-2008, 05:58 PM
:rolls:

HEADLINE:
FEDERER FALLS TO #2 RANKING
Embarrassing Shiny Manbag Moves Nadal Ahead

:hug: I know you're a Fedfan but I have to say you are dreaming if you think the furthest Fed falls is to #2.

Beforehand
01-25-2008, 06:05 PM
:haha:

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving to l_mac again."

Too good. :hearts:

EDIT: I gave him a "Rainer Schuettler-esque" 6th ranking now.