Paris 2R: Fed v/s Karlo - who wins? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Paris 2R: Fed v/s Karlo - who wins?

rofe
10-30-2007, 05:52 PM
Will Fed have 1.5 mil on his mind or will he also play tennis? :)

Sunset of Age
10-30-2007, 05:54 PM
Will Fed have 1.5 mil on his mind or will he also play tennis? :)

:lol:

Nah, Roger will play tennis. Fed wins in two, most likely 7-6 7-6.

mineralwater
10-30-2007, 06:00 PM
The slightly slower surface should suit Roger. Apparently Ivo's serve wasn't as potent against Verdasco. I hope Roger wins in 2 with 1 break of serve in each. I think Roger will be motivated. Has a point to prove in Paris

daddy
10-30-2007, 06:01 PM
This time Karlovic wins 76 64

ASP0315
10-30-2007, 06:02 PM
karlo 7-6 6-2

FedFan_2007
10-30-2007, 06:03 PM
Fed 7-6(7-5), 7-6(9-7). Expected result.

+alonso
10-30-2007, 06:03 PM
Karlovic isn't winning this...

Federer 7-6 6-3 / 7-6 7-6

Or Levy
10-30-2007, 06:08 PM
Rogi. 7:6, 6:4.

bokehlicious
10-30-2007, 06:09 PM
coin flip

l_mac
10-30-2007, 06:13 PM
^^ A coin flip that Fed wins every time ;)

elessar
10-30-2007, 06:15 PM
^^ A coin flip that Fed wins every time ;)

that lucky bastard :armed:

Bilbo
10-30-2007, 06:18 PM
slow surface

federer in 2

Ivo#1Fan
10-30-2007, 06:27 PM
slow surface

federer in 2

I think Fed in two also, but the slow surface favors Ivo not Fed. Ivo will hold serve on any surface, he only has a chance to break Fed on slow surfaces. If it does somehow get to a 3rd set TB it could really be interesting. I'd like to see how well Fed holds up in the clutch time. He doesn't have to do that very often.

Corey Feldman
10-30-2007, 06:39 PM
I predict that either Federer or Karlovic will win this match

I predict 2 or 3 Tie Breaks as well

:p

scarecrows
10-30-2007, 06:43 PM
if Fed really wants to go all the way in Paris he will win in 2

if he doesnt bother, he'd better lose early rather than late

l_mac
10-30-2007, 06:43 PM
I think Fed in two also, but the slow surface favors Ivo not Fed. Ivo will hold serve on any surface, he only has a chance to break Fed on slow surfaces. If it does somehow get to a 3rd set TB it could really be interesting. I'd like to see how well Fed holds up in the clutch time. He doesn't have to do that very often.

You think Ivo has the return game to trouble Federer?

I think a slightly slower surface give Fed more chances to win without needing TBs.

stebs
10-30-2007, 06:44 PM
Federer and this time there is a break in the match.

Ivo#1Fan
10-30-2007, 06:50 PM
You think Ivo has the return game to trouble Federer?

I think a slightly slower surface give Fed more chances to win without needing TBs.

I think it's very unlikely Ivo will break Fed. BUT he did get to break point on Feds serve in Basel, so if the courts are slower here I do think he has a better chance of breaking. Believe it or not Ivo has broken serve 85 times this year, so he's not hopeless on return. Yes also Fed will have a better chance of breaking, maybe more like 5% instead of 3%. Still I think I prefer this match on a slower surface as long as it's indoors. I may have a different opinion on this afterwards :)

World Beater
10-30-2007, 06:55 PM
terrible match for federer.

i was hoping he would play verdasco to get some practice for nalbandian.

Now he is screwed. :help:

tcorinna
10-30-2007, 07:03 PM
Roger in 2 => 7-6 6-3:worship:

Deathless Mortal
10-30-2007, 07:09 PM
Roger 6-4 7-6

jonny84
10-30-2007, 07:13 PM
Roger in two

6-4 7-5

RagingLamb
10-30-2007, 07:38 PM
64 63 Rf

Andi-M
10-30-2007, 07:45 PM
I predict that either Federer or Karlovic will win this match

I predict 2 or 3 Tie Breaks as well

:p

Wow Brave predictions there....:p

ASP0315
10-30-2007, 07:48 PM
I think it's very unlikely Ivo will break Fed. BUT he did get to break point on Feds serve in Basel, so if the courts are slower here I do think he has a better chance of breaking. Believe it or not Ivo has broken serve 85 times this year, so he's not hopeless on return. Yes also Fed will have a better chance of breaking, maybe more like 5% instead of 3%. Still I think I prefer this match on a slower surface as long as it's indoors. I may have a different opinion on this afterwards :)

agreed it will also help karlovic to return well.
i don't know why people are saying federer can break ivo serves just because verdasco broke him. :lol:

BTW here are karlovic's results from montreal and basel.(where he played federer on both occassons and lost.)

Montreal
def Mirnyi 4-6 6-3 7-6
lost to fed 6-7 6-7

Basel
def marco chidunelli 6-3 6-2
def blake 4-6 7-6 6-4
def berdych 6-7 7-6 7-6
lost to federer 6-7 6-7

did you notice the similarities of both tournament. mirnyi was able to break karlovic but fed din't in that tourny. blake was able to break karlovic in basel but fed didn't. So don't be fooled by verdasco breaking karlovic.
:wavey:

DrJules
10-30-2007, 07:50 PM
The slightly slower surface should suit Roger. Apparently Ivo's serve wasn't as potent against Verdasco. I hope Roger wins in 2 with 1 break of serve in each. I think Roger will be motivated. Has a point to prove in Paris

It was by the third set.

Karlovic won 21 of 24 points i.e. only 3 points lost in the 3rd set.

ReturnWinner
10-30-2007, 07:54 PM
agreed it will also help karlovic to return well.
i don't know why people are saying federer can break ivo serves just because verdasco broke him. :lol:

BTW here are karlovic's results from montreal and basel.(where he played federer on both occassons and lost.)

Montreal
def Mirnyi 4-6 6-3 7-6
lost to fed 6-7 6-7

Basel
def marco chidunelli 6-3 6-2
def blake 4-6 7-6 6-4
def berdych 6-7 7-6 7-6
lost to federer 6-7 6-7

did you notice the similarities of both tournament. mirnyi was able to break karlovic but fed din't in that tourny. blake was able to break karlovic in basel but fed didn't. So don't be fooled by verdasco breaking karlovic.
:wavey:

because many thinks Federer is god then if a determined player is able to break Karlovic how god can not? if he is way better than everyone

i remember last year when Nalbandian did beat Roddick pretty comfortable in the masters cup many said Roddick played like shit just because in his last match Roddick was very close to beat Federer :o

ASP0315
10-30-2007, 07:56 PM
You think Ivo has the return game to trouble Federer?

I think a slightly slower surface give Fed more chances to win without needing TBs.

montreal was dead slow too. :lol:

stebs
10-30-2007, 07:59 PM
because many thinks Federer is god then if a determined player is able to break Karlovic how god can not? if he is way better than everyone

i remember last year when Nalbandian did beat Roddick pretty comfortable in the masters cup many said Roddick played like shit just because in his last match Roddick was very close to beat Federer :o

Although what you say is partly true Roddick did put in an awful performance in that match in last years TMC.

ReturnWinner
10-30-2007, 08:01 PM
Although what you say is partly true Roddick did put in an awful performance in that match in last years TMC.

bullshit, Roddick did not play bad. Nalbandian played great and outplayed him.

stebs
10-30-2007, 08:06 PM
bullshit, Roddick did not play bad. Nalbandian played great and outplayed him.

Nalbandian played a very good match but Roddick was complacent going into that match and had none of the aggression that he has when he is playing well, he allowed himself to be controlled.

In the second set he improved but still was weak on the Nalbandian serve and gave away too many gifts. It was a bad performance by him.

ASP0315
10-30-2007, 08:08 PM
bullshit, Roddick did not play bad. Nalbandian played great and outplayed him.
agreed i watched the match myself. he was clearly outplayed.
Probably federer was out of touch in that match against roddick.( or probably roddick played great.) but still managed to crush nadal and blake to win tmc last year.

stebs
10-30-2007, 08:10 PM
agreed i watched the match myself. he was clearly outplayed.
Probably federer was out of touch in that match against roddick.( or probably roddick played great.) but still managed to crush nadal and blake to win tmc last year.

Federer played okay, it was a very good performance by Roddick and the way he played in that match and the one vs Ljubo previously he wouldn't have lost a set by two breaks to ANYONE on tour and yes that includes Nalbandian.

Ivo#1Fan
10-30-2007, 08:23 PM
I don't know why so many people say Fed's a great returner. While he is up near the top in most ATP serve stats, he's not that high in any of the return stats. He's only 9th in % return games won and 35th in % break points converted. He's particularly weak against Ivo's serve. As other posters have pointed out before, he tries to react to the 1st serve and return it, rather than guessing on it. Against Ivo, players such as Clement who guesses on the 1st serve return much better.

elessar
10-30-2007, 08:41 PM
I don't know why so many people say Fed's a great returner.

just ask Roddick :lol:

R.Federer
10-30-2007, 09:34 PM
Predict that tomorrow Karlo will take home €11,800 and Federer $US1.5m :D

stebs
10-30-2007, 10:03 PM
I don't know why so many people say Fed's a great returner. While he is up near the top in most ATP serve stats, he's not that high in any of the return stats. He's only 9th in % return games won and 35th in % break points converted. He's particularly weak against Ivo's serve. As other posters have pointed out before, he tries to react to the 1st serve and return it, rather than guessing on it. Against Ivo, players such as Clement who guesses on the 1st serve return much better.

Although you are correct that Ivo's serve is an exception Federer is possibly the greatest returner of first serves the world has ever seen.

World Beater
10-30-2007, 10:10 PM
montreal was dead slow too. :lol:

Montreal was not slow. It is slower than cincy but its def faster than IW/Miami.

its not a slow court at all.

Tommy fan
10-30-2007, 10:34 PM
Fed in 2!
7:6 7:6 or 7:6 7:5

MatchFederer
10-31-2007, 01:03 AM
karlo 7-6 6-2

Are you joking? :confused:

gusman890
10-31-2007, 01:05 AM
I want Ivo to do well, but everytime they play, Federer wins in two breakers.


And the surface is slower than in year's past, so it will make things interesting indeed.

ASP0315
10-31-2007, 02:00 AM
Are you joking? :confused:

maybe.

Snowwy
10-31-2007, 02:22 AM
Karlovci!!

NYCtennisfan
10-31-2007, 02:23 AM
I don't know why so many people say Fed's a great returner. While he is up near the top in most ATP serve stats, he's not that high in any of the return stats. He's only 9th in % return games won and 35th in % break points converted. He's particularly weak against Ivo's serve. As other posters have pointed out before, he tries to react to the 1st serve and return it, rather than guessing on it. Against Ivo, players such as Clement who guesses on the 1st serve return much better.

:lol:

Seriously though, Fed does need to guess on Ivo's serve. Nobody reacts faster than Fed, but he is barely able to get a racquet on the ball and doesnt put too many returns in play. He doesn't get aced either, but that is a moot point because he loses the point.

enzogiovanni
10-31-2007, 03:31 AM
The only players that can expect to come into a match to break Dr.Ivo's serve are Clement, Santoro and Rochus.
All others usually have Roger's face expression when returning.
Roger will not break Ivo's serve no matter what you say here. This surface actually suits Dr.Ivo better because his chances of breaking Roger increase more than Roger's chances of breaking Ivo.

With a little bit of luck Ivo can take this one.

Corey Feldman
10-31-2007, 03:49 AM
I'd love it if Fed broke him to love in the fist game of the match lol

i'd start a thread on it, dedicated to you - enzogiovanni.

Marek.
10-31-2007, 04:07 AM
What does it matter if Fed can break Ivo or not if he still wins the match? :shrug:

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ivo win this one.

Fedex
10-31-2007, 04:31 AM
Federer in two with no breaks of serve. That is the LOCK of the century, I think. ;)

Turquoise
10-31-2007, 06:51 AM
Federer in 2 predictable tie breaks. I'd love to see a rematch against Nalbandian (keeping fingers crossed he gets past Moya - sorry Moya, not routing for you this time).

Hola Mr. SK
10-31-2007, 07:18 AM
Dr.Ivo X-X X-X 7-6
If Fed's decided to rest up for Shanghai, he could achieve it in the 3rd set TB. Otherwise,it's gonna be Fed in straights.

cardio
10-31-2007, 10:07 AM
What does it matter if Fed can break Ivo or not if he still wins the match? :shrug:

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ivo win this one.

Apparently it matters to Fed and to his hardcore fans too. I think it is mostly the pride-thing. World no 1.,GOAT and so on, and he cannot break ATP 24. ?! I rarely have seen him more frustrated, pissed off and nervous than he was in Basel when he failed to win his breakpoints. Despite what his hardcore fans are saying, I think he knows that tiebreaks against Ivo are not easy, are not "sure victory, never in doubt, bla-bla-bla". I do`nt think Federer enjoys to play TB against Karlovic, he knows certain amount of luck is always involved, sometimes it takes one lucky netcord and your opponent is winning the set. Plus, he knows statistics is against him. He played 8 tiebreaks against Ivo and won 7 of them. Only time he lost tiebreak to Ivo was 3 years ago. Longer the series of winning tiebreaks is, more chances that he is losing one TB or even two again

scarecrows
10-31-2007, 10:14 AM
Plus, he knows statistics is against him. He played 8 tiebreaks against Ivo and won last 7 of them. Only time he lost tiebreak to Ivo was 3 years ago. Longer the series of winning tiebreaks is, more chances that he is losing one TB or even two again

he won the last 7 TB and the statistics are against him? :lol:

winning a TB is not a coin flip fella

cardio
10-31-2007, 10:18 AM
he won the last 7 TB and the statistics are against him? :lol:

winning a TB is not a coin flip fella

Yes, I know it is not 100% lottery, but as I said certain amount of luck is involved. Especially when you are playing against server like Ivo.

rosamunda
10-31-2007, 10:33 AM
Being a Fed fan, I would like to think that, having played Ivo just a few days ago, the pattern of those monster serves is still fresh in his memory bank, so that he doesn't have to play for 2 whole sets before he gets a break point or two........or will he think "oh sh*t, I can't do that all over again so soon, hang on to my serve for dear life, watch aces whizzing by, be all patient etc etc"?

And what will Ivo be thinking - positives or negatives after 4 close losses?

Perhaps this one will be played out more than usually in the mind than in the racquet arm.....

azza
10-31-2007, 12:24 PM
Federer 6-7(0) 7-6(19) 7-6(24)

KaxMisha
10-31-2007, 12:40 PM
Apparently it matters to Fed and to his hardcore fans too. I think it is mostly the pride-thing. World no 1.,GOAT and so on, and he cannot break ATP 24. ?! I rarely have seen him more frustrated, pissed off and nervous than he was in Basel when he failed to win his breakpoints. Despite what his hardcore fans are saying, I think he knows that tiebreaks against Ivo are not easy, are not "sure victory, never in doubt, bla-bla-bla". I do`nt think Federer enjoys to play TB against Karlovic, he knows certain amount of luck is always involved, sometimes it takes one lucky netcord and your opponent is winning the set. Plus, he knows statistics is against him. He played 8 tiebreaks against Ivo and won 7 of them. Only time he lost tiebreak to Ivo was 3 years ago. Longer the series of winning tiebreaks is, more chances that he is losing one TB or even two again

Oh my. Look, if you know jack about probabilities, just don't comment on things that involve them, okay? That's just completely :retard:. If the probability that Federer wins a tie-break against Karlovic is 80 % (just picking a random number), it will still be 80 % any given time, even if he's won 1000000000 in a row. You are saying that if I flip a coin and get ten straight heads, the eleventh flip is more likely to be a tail! :retard: :retard: :retard: :smash:

enzogiovanni
10-31-2007, 02:21 PM
I'd love it if Fed broke him to love in the fist game of the match lol

i'd start a thread on it, dedicated to you - enzogiovanni.

I'd also love to spend a weekend naked with Angel Dark and Monica Sweetheart.
But it wont happen. :wavey:

SerenaFederer
10-31-2007, 02:41 PM
Fed in 2 :)

Rogieva
10-31-2007, 02:45 PM
Fed 76 76

Corey Feldman
10-31-2007, 04:22 PM
Its Halloween and big Frankenstein will be out to destroy Fedgod tonight with his killer serve.

dylan24
10-31-2007, 06:54 PM
i think federer will tank
as he knows nalbandian will rip him a new one again tomorrow

cardio
10-31-2007, 07:09 PM
Oh my. Look, if you know jack about probabilities, just don't comment on things that involve them, okay? That's just completely :retard:. If the probability that Federer wins a tie-break against Karlovic is 80 % (just picking a random number), it will still be 80 % any given time, even if he's won 1000000000 in a row. You are saying that if I flip a coin and get ten straight heads, the eleventh flip is more likely to be a tail! :retard: :retard: :retard: :smash:
I was`nt talking about mathematic probability, I was talking about tennis.
In theory it is ( coin flip, I mean) 50 % chance any given time, but in practice there is no endless winning streaks . I was not implying that Fed won his tiebreaks by luck, but luck is often involved in close tiebreaks.
O.K. I rephrase it : More tiebreaks they play,closer the day when Karlovic will be lucky. He just have to be patient. Ever played roulette? Obviously not. If you choose black ALL THE TIME,eventually you will win.

Strangelove
10-31-2007, 07:28 PM
i think federer will tank
as he knows nalbandian will rip him a new one again tomorrowIf he wanted to tank, he might as well not have bothered to come at all.

Unless Mirka wanted to go on a shopping-spree and forced him to come. Possible.

dylan24
10-31-2007, 07:47 PM
If he wanted to tank, he might as well not have bothered to come at all.

Unless Mirka wanted to go on a shopping-spree and forced him to come. Possible.

didn't he need to show up to claim that huge million dollar plus bonus

KaxMisha
10-31-2007, 09:04 PM
I was`nt talking about mathematic probability, I was talking about tennis.
In theory it is ( coin flip, I mean) 50 % chance any given time, but in practice there is no endless winning streaks . I was not implying that Fed won his tiebreaks by luck, but luck is often involved in close tiebreaks.
O.K. I rephrase it : More tiebreaks they play,closer the day when Karlovic will be lucky. He just have to be patient. Ever played roulette? Obviously not. If you choose black ALL THE TIME,eventually you will win.

Huh? The roulette example is completely irrelevant. What you said was that since Federer has now won a lot of tie breaks in a row against Karlovic, he is bound to lose one now. That makes no sense, neither logically, nor statistically. Deal with it!

Seleshfan
10-31-2007, 09:19 PM
when do they play?

cardio
10-31-2007, 09:39 PM
Huh? The roulette example is completely irrelevant. What you said was that since Federer has now won a lot of tie breaks in a row against Karlovic, he is bound to lose one now. That makes no sense, neither logically, nor statistically. Deal with it!
I was`nt saying he is bound to lose one NOW,you liar, I was saying he is losing it eventually if they are playing more tiebreaks. By the way, Fed just lost a set, not tiebreak though. Deal with it!

Baghdatis72
10-31-2007, 09:47 PM
when do they play?

The game is under way.

6-3 4-6 3-1* Fed and Ivo serving at 30-30

stebs
10-31-2007, 09:55 PM
I was`nt saying he is bound to lose one NOW,you liar, I was saying he is losing it eventually if they are playing more tiebreaks. By the way, Fed just lost a set, not tiebreak though. Deal with it!

You are fighting a losing battle and here's a little clue why, you're completely wrong. It is no more likely either in theory or in reality that Karlovic will win the next breaker just because he lost the previous one.

cardio
10-31-2007, 10:09 PM
You are fighting a losing battle and here's a little clue why, you're completely wrong. It is no more likely either in theory or in reality that Karlovic will win the next breaker just because he lost the previous one.

Where I said it will be THE NEXT breaker?!
All I meant that winning streaks are not endless. Especially between those two players.

RagingLamb
10-31-2007, 10:12 PM
wow, IVO took a set. well done.

stebs
10-31-2007, 10:20 PM
Where I said it will be THE NEXT breaker?!
All I meant that winning streaks are not endless. Especially between those two players.

"Longer the series of winning tiebreaks is, more chances that he is losing one TB or even two again"

Those are your words, they are wrong. That is all.

cardio
11-01-2007, 01:39 AM
"Longer the series of winning tiebreaks is, more chances that he is losing one TB or even two again"

Those are your words, they are wrong. That is all.
And where exactly do you see words"next breaker" ?


Well, lets check the facts. It`s not mathematics, it`s common sense. I do believe longer the winning series continues (between two roughly similar level players, I´m not talking club player against Fed), sooner it will end. When exactly, nobody knows. Nadal won 81 matches a row on clay. Was he closer to loss after his 2.win( 79 matches to go) or after his 75.win?( 6 matches to go)?. Each win he collected added more pressure,in my eyes each win against top player was less probable than previous. Every next match he played was increasing chances that it will be off day for Rafa, tired day,headache day, unlucky day, or extremely good day for his opponent. I know he is great claycourter and he was favourite in every single match, but he is not god and winning streaks are not endless. And guess what happened . eventually he lost!
Before today Fed won against Karlo 6 sets a row. Today streak ended at 7. Was he closer to lose a set after Montreal(3 sets to go) or after Basel (1 set to go)? I would say after Basel :) Why? Players were same, their shape was similar, only winning streak was longer after Basel. I would say my "wrong" common sense logic is better supported by facts than your theory. Your theory is right only then if you are convinced that Ivo is not able to win TB against Fed ever again no matter how well Karlovic is playing or how louzy is playing Fed.. If you are sure that Fed will never have a off day,headache day, crappy mood day. Then yes, it does not matter how many TB they will play in the future, Ivo`s chances remain exactly the same - zero. But I believe he will win 1 or 2 more, maybe even the match.

Let`s check their head to head when one of them is retired.

NYCtennisfan
11-01-2007, 02:47 AM
The only players that can expect to come into a match to break Dr.Ivo's serve are Clement, Santoro and Rochus.
All others usually have Roger's face expression when returning.
Roger will not break Ivo's serve no matter what you say here. This surface actually suits Dr.Ivo better because his chances of breaking Roger increase more than Roger's chances of breaking Ivo.

With a little bit of luck Ivo can take this one.

:eek:

Magus13
11-01-2007, 04:20 AM
All the Fed fans who said he would tank are a disgrace. You should know better. Fed is no Joke.

KaxMisha
11-01-2007, 04:23 AM
I was`nt saying he is bound to lose one NOW,you liar, I was saying he is losing it eventually if they are playing more tiebreaks. By the way, Fed just lost a set, not tiebreak though. Deal with it!

Why the fuck would I care that he lost a set? :retard: You said that it gets more probable that he'll lose one since he's won many in a row now. That's simply not the case. :wavey:

Merton
11-01-2007, 04:37 AM
And where exactly do you see words"next breaker" ?


Well, lets check the facts. It`s not mathematics, it`s common sense. I do believe longer the winning series continues (between two roughly similar level players, I´m not talking club player against Fed), sooner it will end. When exactly, nobody knows. Nadal won 81 matches a row on clay. Was he closer to loss after his 2.win( 79 matches to go) or after his 75.win?( 6 matches to go)?. Each win he collected added more pressure,in my eyes each win against top player was less probable than previous. Every next match he played was increasing chances that it will be off day for Rafa, tired day,headache day, unlucky day, or extremely good day for his opponent. I know he is great claycourter and he was favourite in every single match, but he is not god and winning streaks are not endless. And guess what happened . eventually he lost!
Before today Fed won against Karlo 6 sets a row. Today streak ended at 7. Was he closer to lose a set after Montreal(3 sets to go) or after Basel (1 set to go)? I would say after Basel :) Why? Players were same, their shape was similar, only winning streak was longer after Basel. I would say my "wrong" common sense logic is better supported by facts than your theory. Your theory is right only then if you are convinced that Ivo is not able to win TB against Fed ever again no matter how well Karlovic is playing or how louzy is playing Fed.. If you are sure that Fed will never have a off day,headache day, crappy mood day. Then yes, it does not matter how many TB they will play in the future, Ivo`s chances remain exactly the same - zero. But I believe he will win 1 or 2 more, maybe even the match.

Let`s check their head to head when one of them is retired.

This is wrong but I am not in the mood to show why analytically. Suppose you go to a casino and always bet on black, then the probability of the next outcome being black is still the same, regardless of the history of previous outcomes.

cardio
11-01-2007, 07:33 AM
Why the fuck would I care that he lost a set? :retard: You said that it gets more probable that he'll lose one since he's won many in a row now. That's simply not the case. :wavey:
Yes, it is more probable. There is reason why long winning series are rare and short ones happens often. I tried to explain it : everybody have sometimes a bad day,off day, unlucky day. More the two players plays against eachother, more chances that player A(favourite) will have one of these days exactly at the time when he plays against player B.
What is probability that Fed will win 4 matches a row? Pretty big, it happens all the time. What are his chances to win 400 matches a row? Almost zero.
Using your coin flipping analogy, I ask: what is more probable -
a) you flip the coin 2 times and get 2 heads a row
b)you flip the coin 2 million times and get 2 million heads in a row
You took tiebreak as separate, isolated event and claimed chances of winning it are always the same.
I took series of tiebreaks and claim, more they play against eachother, more chances that winning series will be broken. Or perhaps you have examples when tennis player played 400 matches and won them all?
In conclusion, we agree to disagree.
Start flipping, when you achieve 2 million heads a row, i agree with you.