So Who's Beating Federer then........? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

So Who's Beating Federer then........?

stable unit
10-28-2007, 10:00 PM
Look i know there has already been a lot of discussion here, but seriously guys the only guys who have shown the mental strength to compete with Roger are Nalby, Rafa and Nole.

Rafa is a long shot to make it to the final and face Federer.
Has Nole recovered from Nalbandian defeat, he looked very jaded there and his form wasn't that convincing over Vienna and Madrid (apart from Wawrinka match)
It's a tough ask for Nalabandian to play that tennis again vs Roger, nevermind beat Mr Moya?

So think about it guys, who will beat him this week :confused:

Dont tell us Ferrer, Berdych, Gasquet or Ivo have a chance.


I say he wins this week in Paris if he chooses to play. ;)

l_mac
10-28-2007, 10:06 PM
Murray.

stable unit
10-28-2007, 10:08 PM
Possibly, but he is fatigued himself and i wouldn't rate his chances of getting past Nole.

hra87
10-28-2007, 10:10 PM
He'll tank his match against Dr. Ivo.

ASP0315
10-28-2007, 10:20 PM
he will lose to karlovic or nalbandian.
Most likely karlovic. paris surface perfectly suits ivo and it will be more difficult to return here than in basel. I watched his match against verkerk in 2003 i would go with doc. But if karlovic manages to put less than 70% of first served in then fed will win in straight.
Karlovic has a 50 % chance
Against Nalbandian it will be different story. nalbandian got a complete rest after losing to wawrinka so he will be tough and he already beaten him in madrid which will give even more confidence where as federer is playing three torunaments in row and might be little tired or have an off day.
Nalbandian has 50% chance to beat fed

These are two best bets.
Against
Nole has 0% chance of beating federer.(He isn't mentally fit players. He showed that at USO. He got his luck in TB's in Montreal but apart from that he barely posed a threat to federer)

Berdych has 10 % chance. Good indoor player but will he muight pose a litle threat to federer if his forehand isn't erratic.

I don't think nadal will beat fed in indoors either.

Sunset of Age
10-28-2007, 10:23 PM
Murray.

If there is ONE player around in Paris to whom I wouldn't mind seeing Fed lose (apart from Raf, but I don't think he'll make it to the final - easy draw okay, but it's still HC...), it has to be Andy! :rocker2:

marcRD
10-28-2007, 10:25 PM
I would not yet put Djokovic in the league of Nadal or Nalbandian who have beaten Federer 15 times together, Djokovic is still in the league of Gasquet and Berdych, all are Federers pigeons who have defeated Fedrer in this one close match one time in their career.

Karlovic has 10% to beat Federer, Nalby has 50% and Berdych has 20%, I dont know who he will face in semis and finals but I really dont think the Djoke or Nadal would have much chanse against Federer (Maybe Djoko 25%, Nadal 15%).

NYCtennisfan
10-28-2007, 10:26 PM
he will lose to karlovic or nalbandian.
Most likely karlovic. paris surface perfectly suits ivo and it will be more difficult to return here than in basel. I watched his match against verkerk in 2003 i would go with doc. But if karlovic manages to put less than 70% of first served in then fed will win in straight.
Karlovic has a 50 % chance
Against Nalbandian it will be different story. nalbandian got a complete rest after losing to wawrinka so he will be tough and he already beaten him in madrid which will give even more confidence where as federer is playing three torunaments in row and might be little tired or have an off day.
Nalbandian has 50% chance to beat fed

These are two best bets.
Against
Nole has 0% chance of beating federer.(He isn't mentally fit players. He showed that at USO. He got his luck in TB's in Montreal but apart from that he barely posed a threat to federer)

Berdych has 10 % chance. Good indoor player but will he muight pose a litle threat to federer if his forehand isn't erratic.

I don't think nadal will beat fed in indoors either.

So, Ivo has a 50% of beating Fed and Djoko has a 0% chance? Interesting...

I think we might see a tank from Fed this week anyway so in that case, he'll most likely tank against Ivo.

l_mac
10-28-2007, 10:29 PM
So, Ivo has a 50% of beating Fed and Djoko has a 0% chance? Interesting...



Looks about right to me :lol:

Doesn't Karlovic have a match to play before he meets Fed? :mad: Don't dismiss Nando!

R.Federer
10-28-2007, 10:31 PM
Well if he wants to be strategic about the seedings going into Australia, his eyes should be on what he needs to do to keep Nadal No. 2 and Djokey No. 3. That would mean doing his best to see Djokovic get fewer points here than Nadal. The only thing in his hands is what he can do to stop Djokovic since Nadal is on the other side. But he probably is too focussed on himself.

We'll know from the first day what kind of Federer has shown up here and whether the guy has come to try to win, get a few points, or something else. Let's see what brave umpire would fine him for "less than best effort" if he were to tank.

Sunset of Age
10-28-2007, 10:34 PM
Well if he wants to be strategic about the seedings going into Australia, his eyes should be on what he needs to do to keep Nadal No. 2 and Djokey No. 3. That would mean doing his best to see Djokovic get fewer points here than Nadal. The only thing in his hands is what he can do to stop Djokovic since Nadal is on the other side. But he probably is too focussed on himself.


I'm pretty sure Fed will be all too happy to grant Raf that favour. :angel:

barbadosan
10-28-2007, 10:36 PM
If Fed turns up in Paris, I think he cares too much for his legacy to simply tank. He's never won Paris, and he just lost a TMS in Madrid. If he turns up, I say he'll give as good an effort as he's capable of (allowing for possible fatigue)

Snowwy
10-28-2007, 10:39 PM
Ivo easily could.

elessar
10-28-2007, 10:48 PM
If Fed turns up in Paris, I think he cares too much for his legacy to simply tank. He's never won Paris, and he just lost a TMS in Madrid. If he turns up, I say he'll give as good an effort as he's capable of (allowing for possible fatigue)

I agree with, of course I might be biased but I think Federer has too much pride to go to Bercy and then just tank it. I know people are going to bring up Cincy 06 but considering the form he's shown there over the years it's not that surprising he lost to Murray... He may very well lose but I doubt it'll be from lack of trying

ASP0315
10-28-2007, 10:53 PM
Looks about right to me :lol:

Doesn't Karlovic have a match to play before he meets Fed? :mad: Don't dismiss Nando!

i never dismissed nando's chances. In fact i do enjoy watching him
i just gave which players could beat federer. if nando did beat karlovic i would be suprised considering karlovic is having a good indoor season.(one win, two semis, one quater and third rd defeat against kiefer. Nando did have a great week i acknowledge it but apart from that he wasn't really impressive.)

ASP0315
10-28-2007, 11:05 PM
So, Ivo has a 50% of beating Fed and Djoko has a 0% chance? Interesting...

I think we might see a tank from Fed this week anyway so in that case, he'll most likely tank against Ivo.

C'mon djvokovic win in toronto was a lucky one.(I don't think he will pose any threat to federer. Fed owned him since last year. That including a crushing defeat in indoors at DC.)

karlovic did have his chances in basel. He 0-30 on fed's serve and had a sp in the first set and several deuces at 5-4* but fed saved them all. In the second set he had another chance 0-30 on fed's serve. i think it was at 2-1. But fed cames with a couple of kick serves to hold. overall it was a fantastic match .(if you compare it with his match in toronto.)

As for tanking the match is concerned. you could be right probably he tank his match against verdasco/karlovic. :devil:

RickDaStick
10-28-2007, 11:06 PM
he will lose to karlovic or nalbandian.
Most likely karlovic. paris surface perfectly suits ivo and it will be more difficult to return here than in basel. I watched his match against verkerk in 2003 i would go with doc. But if karlovic manages to put less than 70% of first served in then fed will win in straight.
Karlovic has a 50 % chance
Against Nalbandian it will be different story. nalbandian got a complete rest after losing to wawrinka so he will be tough and he already beaten him in madrid which will give even more confidence where as federer is playing three torunaments in row and might be little tired or have an off day.
Nalbandian has 50% chance to beat fed

These are two best bets.
Against
Nole has 0% chance of beating federer.(He isn't mentally fit players. He showed that at USO. He got his luck in TB's in Montreal but apart from that he barely posed a threat to federer)

Berdych has 10 % chance. Good indoor player but will he muight pose a litle threat to federer if his forehand isn't erratic.


I don't think nadal will beat fed in indoors either.

Fed-Ivo a 50-50 match? What's wrong with you?

ASP0315
10-28-2007, 11:17 PM
Fed-Ivo a 50-50 match? What's wrong with you?

Wait and see. ;)
So we don't know if ivo plays fed. or if verdasco plays fed.
either of them has 50 % chance to beat him.

R.Federer
10-29-2007, 12:02 AM
Wait and see. ;)
So we don't know if ivo plays fed. or if verdasco plays fed.
either of them has 50 % chance to beat him.

Well we can blindly say this for any player playing any other player. :confused:

If Verdasco loses, you'll say well I only said he had 50% chance of winning. If Verdasco wins you'll say well I only said he had 50% chance of losing. :lol:

50% means it's a random process, anyone can win. While that is true on a given day for any player, the unconditional odds are not 50% for most matchups. When Karlovic goes in with a 0-4 h2h against Federer, more likely it is 20% he wins , 80% he loses. Regardless of these prematch odds, some person is going to be 100% correct. But it's weird, these 50% odds you come up with.

ASP0315
10-29-2007, 12:50 AM
Well we can blindly say this for any player playing any other player. :confused:

If Verdasco loses, you'll say well I only said he had 50% chance of winning. If Verdasco wins you'll say well I only said he had 50% chance of losing. :lol:

50% means it's a random process, anyone can win. While that is true on a given day for any player, the unconditional odds are not 50% for most matchups. When Karlovic goes in with a 0-4 h2h against Federer, more likely it is 20% he wins , 80% he loses. Regardless of these prematch odds, some person is going to be 100% correct. But it's weird, these 50% odds you come up with.


True.
Speaking of betfair odds you are right federer is 80% favorite to win.
it will be probably something like 1.2 - 5.6 against karlovic
1.1 - 8.2 for verdasco.

well i only gave odds of players who could beat federer here.
Realistically i meant to say karlovic and nalbandian are only two players who have a shot at beating Federer here. ;)
Berdych also has a chance.

I'm giving the odds based on fitness of each player and amount of matched the both opponenets played in the last three weeks or so and based on thier indoor court records. karlovic and nalbandian has a good record at indoors.(especially nalabandian.)Federers record is great as well but i'll take his recent workload into the account.
As for verdasco is concerned he got 50% shot beacuse Federer doesn't play well in first round matches.(if you look at the berrer match last week. It was simply 50-50 match. :lol: It was just like who played crappiest lost. Same way another classic example was federer vs kristian pless in dubai.)

Well i don't give odds by simply looking at H2H. H2H can be very decieving.

I gave 0 % for dvokovic as he lacks mental game and is not capable of beating federer at indoor . (whatever gamenship tactics he tries to use don't work out against federer. Also Federer perfectly exploits his weaknesses very well. Nole got lucky win at toronto. altough it was good win)

Rafa = Fed Killa
10-29-2007, 01:47 AM
I gave 0 % for dvokovic as he lacks mental game

Agree with this part.

Chokovic is beyond mentally weak.

Corey Feldman
10-29-2007, 01:55 AM
Might be Karlovic, 7-6 7-6.

then again he might play crap and grind out win after win, Cincinnati style.

dragons112
10-29-2007, 02:51 AM
nalbandian beat him once, which means he is as mentally strong ??? Rafa is only on clay really and djokovic has only beat him once. I think you are pulling the trigger a little bit early.

It really is only Rafa

ASP0315
10-29-2007, 03:22 AM
nalbandian beat him once, which means he is as mentally strong ??? Rafa is only on clay really and djokovic has only beat him once. I think you are pulling the trigger a little bit early.

It really is only Rafa

Nalbandian beat Federer three times on indoors. :lol:
he is 3-3 against him in indoors.
BTW two of those occassions are when federer was in terrific form.
In 2005 he defeated him in 5 sets coming back from 2 sets to love down.
This year in madrid he came back from 1 set down.

you are right his mental game isn't that good but it did improve a lot. thats the reason i 50% chance for him to beat federer.

Rafa didn't beat federer in china last year and lost to blake. Rafa chances here are slim. i'll give 5% chances for him to beat fed.(but if this was madrid i would have given him 30 % chance

dragons112
10-29-2007, 04:00 AM
good points. Roger is the best by far is all im trying to say to all the fed haters

Merton
10-29-2007, 04:52 AM
After seeing this I think it is likely that Roger will try his best to win the tournament.

KitinovRules
10-29-2007, 08:58 AM
He'll tank his match against Dr. Ivo.
Yes, that is the first thing I thought when I saw Paris draw.

leng jai
10-29-2007, 09:01 AM
Its pretty easy to tank against Dr. Ivo. Just throw in a few UEs in one service game of each set and he'll ace you anyway on his service games.

bokehlicious
10-29-2007, 10:04 AM
This Federer is an overrated mug. Anyone can take him down on a given day... :o

RonE
10-29-2007, 10:47 AM
Agree with this part.

Chokovic is beyond mentally weak.

And yet you still have him in your signature. :lol:

So R=FK supports mentally weak sissy ballet dancing pansies who bend over for the ego king :) :devil:

dragons112
10-29-2007, 11:14 AM
I dont understan how Rafa is a Fed killa

t0x
10-29-2007, 12:07 PM
Nalby or Ivo will take down a tired Fed probably.

Although if he does get through them two, he should win the entire thing. I don't see Rafa, Djoko, Murray etc posing a threat on such a fast court.

FedererSlam
10-29-2007, 12:41 PM
Why is everyone assuming Fed is knackered. He won Basel piss easy and gets 2 days off till next match. He may tank it to further conserve energy for Shanghai but if he wants to he is fit enough.

What I'm saying is if he is playing to win (not tanking) he will not lose because of fitness.

I rate his chances great. Only possible person to hurt him here is Nalby who is hot and cold.

NikolaBGD
10-29-2007, 12:55 PM
You must be very stupid or blind to said-Nole is choker?!

In his whole career he choked only 2 matches-Misha in Rotterdam and Fed on US Open!

Compare him with all young guns-Gasquet, Murray, Berdych, Monfils...He never lost any match against them.

Someone said-Nole was lucky in Montreal?!:) No, he was better then Fed in that final, Fed choked that match!!!

Ok, I don't seek the truth in any of haters posts, afraid is miracle!

ReturnWinner
10-29-2007, 01:17 PM
You must be very stupid or blind to said-Nole is choker?!

In his whole career he choked only 2 matches-Misha in Rotterdam and Fed on US Open!

Compare him with all young guns-Gasquet, Murray, Berdych, Monfils...He never lost any match against them.

Someone said-Nole was lucky in Montreal?!:) No, he was better then Fed in that final, Fed choked that match!!!

Ok, I don't seek the truth in any of haters posts, afraid is miracle!


that is true, Fakevic is one of the best competitors and strongest of mind players out there

ReturnWinner
10-29-2007, 01:21 PM
Nalby or Ivo will take down a tired Fed probably.

Although if he does get through them two, he should win the entire thing. I don't see Rafa, Djoko, Murray etc posing a threat on such a fast court.

tired? all his matches were not very demanding except the final against Nalbandian :o

ASP0315
10-29-2007, 05:04 PM
that is true, Fakevic is one of the best competitors and strongest of mind players out there

:lol:
:haha:

ASP0315
10-29-2007, 05:04 PM
Nalby or Ivo will take down a tired Fed probably.

Although if he does get through them two, he should win the entire thing. I don't see Rafa, Djoko, Murray etc posing a threat on such a fast court.

agreed