Nalbandian, Rogers only hope in Paris? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Nalbandian, Rogers only hope in Paris?

marcRD
10-19-2007, 03:37 PM
I have been talking about the Nalbandian-Nadal matchup for a long time. When Nalbandian is on, no matter what surface he is playing he can outrally anyone, dont make mistakes and control rallies with aggresive shots on both the forehand and the backhand. What makes the Nadal-Nalbandian matchup so interesting is that all Nalbandians strengths play on Nadals weaknesses. Like Nadal has probably the worst 2nd serve in the tour and Nalbandian attacks weak 2nd serves better than any other player in the atp. Nadals forehand topspin high up on Nalbys backhand plays straight to Nalbandians strength. Nadals defensive tennis is no problem for the patient Nalbandian who will just play safe aggresive shots and play Nadal around no matter how many times he needs to hit the ball to win the point. Nadals offensive tennis is not powerful enought to find holes in Nalbys defense.

Nadal has been very fortunate not to have Nalby in his side of the RG draws so far. But if they face each other next year in RG I would bet all my money on Nalbandian and Federers former nemesis could be his saviour in the quest for the grand slam.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 03:43 PM
Yeah but Nalbandian if he is playing this well could also beat Federer in a twist of irony.

Regardless the clay surface favors Nadal, it is slower and Nalbandian would have to paint 7-8 lines every point if Nadal plays well at RG.

Byrd
10-19-2007, 03:46 PM
Nadal was lucky he never faced nalbandian in the clay season in 2006, nalbandian was playing like a demon.

Adler
10-19-2007, 03:46 PM
Nalbandian's precision is a death sentence for Nadal. EOT

Dimonator133
10-19-2007, 03:47 PM
I have been talking about the Nalbandian-Nadal matchup for a long time. When Nalbandian is on, no matter what surface he is playing he can outrally anyone, dont make mistakes and control rallies with aggresive shots on both the forehand and the backhand. What makes the Nadal-Nalbandian matchup so interesting is that all Nalbandians strengths play on Nadals weaknesses. Like Nadal has probably the worst 2nd serve in the tour and Nalbandian attacks weak 2nd serves better than any other player in the atp. Nadals forehand topspin high up on Nalbys backhand plays straight to Nalbandians strength. Nadals defensive tennis is no problem for the patient Nalbandian who will just play safe aggresive shots and play Nadal around no matter how many times he needs to hit the ball to win the point. Nadals offensive tennis is not powerful enought to find holes in Nalbys defense.

Nadal has been very fortunate not to have Nalby in his side of the RG draws so far. But if they face each other next year in RG I would bet all my money on Nalbandian and Federers former nemesis could be his saviour in the quest for the grand slam.



:haha:


i love how people always blow Nadal and Federer losses way out of proportion.

Adler
10-19-2007, 03:48 PM
Nadal was lucky he never faced nalbandian in the clay season in 2006, nalbandian was playing like a demon.
It's a good point, although questionable. We all know how shitty Nalbandian can play - he can lose to anyone from Top 1000 on a given day

But the thing is, defeating Federer in Shanghai 05 gave him more confidence, made him more involved in tennis and he became #3. Now it's a question : can he repeat it after destroying Nadal? We shall see

Dimonator133
10-19-2007, 03:48 PM
I have been talking about the Nalbandian-Nadal matchup for a long time. When Nalbandian is on, no matter what surface he is playing he can outrally anyone, dont make mistakes and control rallies with aggresive shots on both the forehand and the backhand. What makes the Nadal-Nalbandian matchup so interesting is that all Nalbandians strengths play on Nadals weaknesses. Like Nadal has probably the worst 2nd serve in the tour and Nalbandian attacks weak 2nd serves better than any other player in the atp. Nadals forehand topspin high up on Nalbys backhand plays straight to Nalbandians strength. Nadals defensive tennis is no problem for the patient Nalbandian who will just play safe aggresive shots and play Nadal around no matter how many times he needs to hit the ball to win the point. Nadals offensive tennis is not powerful enought to find holes in Nalbys defense.

Nadal has been very fortunate not to have Nalby in his side of the RG draws so far. But if they face each other next year in RG I would bet all my money on Nalbandian and Federers former nemesis could be his saviour in the quest for the grand slam.



that post actually would have been interesting, though, if you had thought of it before the Nadal-Nalbandian match

marcRD
10-19-2007, 03:49 PM
Yeah but Nalbandian if he is playing this well could also beat Federer in a twist of irony.

Regardless the clay surface favors Nadal, it is slower and Nalbandian would have to paint 7-8 lines every point if Nadal plays well at RG.

Not really, because Nadal himself would have trouble outplaying Nalby so Nalby would just have to exchange cross backhands with Nadals forehand where Nalby really is the only player who has an advantage against Nadal, then he can surprise with a backhand dtl when Nadals forehands arent deep enought.

But yes, Nalby could and maybe even should beat Federer in a potential final if both is playing their best tennis.

Billabong
10-19-2007, 03:49 PM
Not sure about that, people tend to forget that Nalbandian was really dominating Federer in their RG 2006 match before the injury.. I know Federer got better as the match went on, but a 100% healthy Halby could have won that match..

brent-o
10-19-2007, 03:50 PM
I love Nalbandian and all but I'm just laughing at this thread because had this been last week, this thread would have not even existed. I'm not entirely sure Nalbandian is back to his best form permanently so I won't jump on the bandwagon just yet.

Nevertheless, Nadal has been lucky in not having to play Nalbandian at Roland Garros. Federer had to face him in the RG 06 semis and had quite a tough match before Nalby got injured.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 03:50 PM
that post actually would have been interesting, though, if you had thought of it before the Nadal-Nalbandian match

I did make a thread where I pointed out Nalby as the most dangerous player NAdal could face in the clay season a long time ago.

Beforehand
10-19-2007, 03:53 PM
Yeah but Nalbandian if he is playing this well could also beat Federer in a twist of irony.

There we go. It'd be amazing to see them all enter a tournament like the French in pretty stellar form, but alas, how often do such things pan out?

Dimonator133
10-19-2007, 03:54 PM
I love Nalbandian and all but I'm just laughing at this thread because had this been last week, this thread would have not even existed. I'm not entirely sure Nalbandian is back to his best form permanently so I won't jump on the bandwagon just yet.

Nevertheless, Nadal has been lucky in not having to play Nalbandian at Roland Garros. Federer had to face him in the RG 06 semis and had quite a tough match before Nalby got injured.


well said (to the first paragraph at least)

Action Jackson
10-19-2007, 03:55 PM
Okay.

brent-o
10-19-2007, 03:57 PM
well said (to the first paragraph at least)

Just curious, what don't you agree with in the second paragraph?:wavey:

jasmin
10-19-2007, 03:59 PM
I love Nalbandian and all but I'm just laughing at this thread because had this been last week, this thread would have not even existed. I'm not entirely sure Nalbandian is back to his best form permanently so I won't jump on the bandwagon just yet.

Nevertheless, Nadal has been lucky in not having to play Nalbandian at Roland Garros. Federer had to face him in the RG 06 semis and had quite a tough match before Nalby got injured.

I agree. Sure any of them can beat each on any given day. It all depends but to I think I'll give Nalbanian some more time.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:00 PM
Not really, because Nadal himself would have trouble outplaying Nalby so Nalby would just have to exchange cross backhands with Nadals forehand where Nalby really is the only player who has an advantage against Nadal, then he can surprise with a backhand dtl when Nadals forehands arent deep enought.

But yes, Nalby could and maybe even should beat Federer in a potential final if both is playing their best tennis.

Nadal's forehands kick up higher on clay, so Nalby wouldn't find it as easy to drill BHs crosscourt. He could hit it back but not with the same authority.
That means a closer match than today and in a closer match Nalby's mentality and Nadal's toughness in RG (1st set this year's final anyone?) come into play. Over 5 sets it is hard to see Nalby winning although if Nadal didn't win RG next year the player I would want next most to hold up the trophy would be Fat Dave.

Nalbandian should beat Federer if they are playing their best on clay, not true on any other surface if Fed is on.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:01 PM
Nadal was lucky he never faced nalbandian in the clay season in 2006, nalbandian was playing like a demon.
And Federer is "lucky" then that Nalbandian is a) a headcase and b) pulled an abdominal muscle in the SFs.

Cmon, come off this "lucky" business and look forward to teh future, not to the past.

Forehander
10-19-2007, 04:03 PM
go watch Nalbandian vs Coria matches. It's exactly the same as him playing Nadal. Dave just run them around like no tomorrow it's quite amazing to watch lol

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:03 PM
Nalbandian's precision is a death sentence for Nadal. EOT
On clay? It would be tight, maybe Nadal's biggest test on clay but to say it would be a death sentence is an overreaction

Byrd
10-19-2007, 04:06 PM
And Federer is "lucky" then that Nalbandian is a) a headcase and b) pulled an abdominal muscle in the SFs.

Cmon, come off this "lucky" business and look forward to teh future, not to the past.

I actually agree with you on that, Fed was lucky he was getting absoultey smashed hence nadal would get the same treatment, seeing that nadal would be a better match-up for him.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:10 PM
I am not a Federer fan but injuries are a component of fitness and genetic "skill". Federer never seems to get injured is that luck? Sampras never seemed to get injured is that luck? If Nalbandian had been more fit perhaps he wouldn't have pulled that muscle

marcRD
10-19-2007, 04:12 PM
Nadal's forehands kick up higher on clay, so Nalby wouldn't find it as easy to drill BHs crosscourt. He could hit it back but not with the same authority.
That means a closer match than today and in a closer match Nalby's mentality and Nadal's toughness in RG (1st set this year's final anyone?) come into play. Over 5 sets it is hard to see Nalby winning although if Nadal didn't win RG next year the player I would want next most to hold up the trophy would be Fat Dave.

Nalbandian should beat Federer if they are playing their best on clay, not true on any other surface if Fed is on.

Yes, but I have never seen a ball which is too high for Nalby to attack with his backhand. When he is on he can attack all kind of kick serves with his backhand. I am not saying that it wouldnt be closer than today, it would be. But I can still see Nalby winning this match without having to go to a 5th set, I really think Nalbandian and only Nalbandian has a backhand which can hold against Nadals forehand without any problems and that would hurt Nadals offensive game immensely and the constant attacking on the 2nd serve and the ease that Nalby handles Nadals 1st serve would mean Nadal would constantly have trouble in his serve games.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 04:16 PM
I am not saying Nadal is lucky to have won 3 RGs without having to face Nalby, it would be the same as saying Federer is fortunate not to play Nalby in wimbledon. This thread is not about finding excuses for Nadals RG victories but discussing what potentialy could happen if they would face each other.

World Beater
10-19-2007, 04:22 PM
federer - nalbandian is different because roger has the defensive slice to counteract any advantage that nalbandian gets as a result of his beautiful point construction.

Roger also has the serve, which he bombed 4 straight aces against nabs at the AO.

Fh-fh, federer kills nalbandian. But nalbandian can punish rog's second serve and can pin roger in the bh corner and hit bh's up the line.

David is like a chess player on the baseline.

ive said it before and i will say it again. David has every chance to get back to the top. Safin is pretty much done, sorry to say.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 04:27 PM
federer - nalbandian is different because roger has the defensive slice to counteract any advantage that nalbandian gets as a result of his beautiful point construction.

Roger also has the serve, which he bombed 4 straight aces against nabs at the AO.

Fh-fh, federer kills nalbandian. But nalbandian can punish rog's second serve and can pin roger in the bh corner and hit bh's up the line.

David is like a chess player on the baseline.

ive said it before and i will say it again. David has every chance to get back to the top. Safin is pretty much done, sorry to say.


Roger can dominate Nalby at lapses with powerful serves, forehands and going to the net to finish the points. On clay the slice doesnt get enought effect to trouble a Nalbandian at the top of his game but Federer has other weapons to simply make points short and easy and taking away rythm from Nalbandian. But it is scary that dont even Federers and Roddicks 2nd serves (which may be the best in the tour) are good enought to stop Nalbandian from attacking them everytime.

World Beater
10-19-2007, 04:31 PM
Roger can dominate Nalby at lapses with powerful serves, forehands and going to the net to finish the points. On clay the slice doesnt get enought effect to trouble a Nalbandian at the top of his game but Federer has other weapons to simply make points short and easy and taking away rythm from Nalbandian. But it is scary that dont even Federers and Roddicks 2nd serves (which may be the best in the tour) are good enought to stop Nalbandian from attacking them everytime.

nalbandian also doesnt defend like nadal does against federer.

once federer gets initiative, nalbandian cannot do too much to stop it.

nabs can counterpunch well though and if roger is to aggerssive in coming to net, he will get burned.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:32 PM
federer - nalbandian is different because roger has the defensive slice to counteract any advantage that nalbandian gets as a result of his beautiful point construction.

Roger also has the serve, which he bombed 4 straight aces against nabs at the AO.

Fh-fh, federer kills nalbandian. But nalbandian can punish rog's second serve and can pin roger in the bh corner and hit bh's up the line.

David is like a chess player on the baseline.

ive said it before and i will say it again. David has every chance to get back to the top. Safin is pretty much done, sorry to say.

The slice is not as useful on clay for Federer against Nalbandian. The serve is huge of course and for Nalby to beat Federer he would need him to have an average day in that department. Fed's FH has been AWOL often lately so Nalby could probably win more of those rallies than you think.

I always found their matchups entertaining and just wished Nalbandian was mentally stronger to make it closer most of the time.

stebs
10-19-2007, 04:34 PM
Put Nalbandian and Nadal on center court at RG, Nadal will win in straights 5/10, in four 3/10, in five 1/10 and will lose 1/10. He is just head and shoulders ahead on clay and Nalbandian wouldn't be able to control so much.

Byrd
10-19-2007, 04:35 PM
People getting ahead of themselves a bit too much here, I hope there isn't a anti-climax tomorrow.

Byrd
10-19-2007, 04:36 PM
The thing with clay is the amount of confidence Nadal gets from it, he feeds off it like a parasite, take him off and hes an average joe.

Action Jackson
10-19-2007, 04:37 PM
People getting ahead of themselves a bit too much here, I hope there isn't a anti-climax tomorrow.

Nothing unusual here sadly.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:39 PM
People getting ahead of themselves a bit too much here, I hope there isn't a anti-climax tomorrow.

There will probably be. Djokovic will roll 6-1, 6-0 something like that and that will prompt certain idiotic fans to start saying "THE REAL NUMBER TWO!!!" (say that sounds familiar, doesn't it? funny how these things cycle every year)

scarecrows
10-19-2007, 04:41 PM
There will probably be. Djokovic will roll 6-1, 6-0 something like that and that will prompt certain idiotic fans to start saying "THE REAL NUMBER TWO!!!" (say that sounds familiar, doesn't it? funny how these things cycle every year)

didnt you say

Nalbandian ..... when he plays like this there is nothing anyone can do. Not Nadal, not Djokovic, not Fed, not even the King

seems like you're amongst those that are building the climax

rofe
10-19-2007, 04:42 PM
There will probably be. Djokovic will roll 6-1, 6-0 something like that and that will prompt certain idiotic fans to start saying "THE REAL NUMBER TWO!!!" (say that sounds familiar, doesn't it? funny how these things cycle every year)

Forget about real #2s, there have been too many "real" #1s according to MTF unfortunately.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:43 PM
didnt you say



seems like you're amongst those that are building the climax

if he comes out like he did against Nadal in his match with Djokovic Nalbandian should win comfortably yes.

But my point about the anticlimax is that Dave's level will probably drop quickly and he will struggle tomorrow.

I wasn't saying Dave is back, I was saying that when he plays as well as he played today only Federer at his best could feel comfortable.

DwyaneWade
10-19-2007, 04:44 PM
Forget about real #2s, there have been too many "real" #1s according to MTF unfortunately.

The rankings never lie.


Except in the case of The King, who always should be ranked number 1

Allure
10-19-2007, 04:51 PM
The thing with clay is the amount of confidence Nadal gets from it, he feeds off it like a parasite, take him off and hes an average joe.

:yeah:

Adler
10-19-2007, 05:38 PM
On clay? It would be tight, maybe Nadal's biggest test on clay but to say it would be a death sentence is an overreaction
I was speaking generally. Yes, on clay it would be much more difficult, but not impossible. Don't forget Nalbandian played in 2 RG semifinals, so he definitely has the clay feet

marcRD
10-19-2007, 05:44 PM
People getting ahead of themselves a bit too much here, I hope there isn't a anti-climax tomorrow.

There will be no anticlimax because no one is saying Nalbandian is going to beat Djokovic tomorrow. Dokovic is not the best matchup for Nalbandian, but we are talking about the matchup Nadal-Nalbandian. The only possible anticlimax is Nadal straight setting Nalbandian in roland garros 2008.

Fed=ATPTourkilla
10-19-2007, 05:50 PM
Bandwagon Player of the Month. We have a winner.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 05:54 PM
Look, no one has ever beaten NAdal like this 6-1 6-2, it shouldnt be possible against a fighter like Nadal. You are supposed to win 7-6 6-4 or something like that like Berdych, Djokovic and Blake have been doing. If you win 6-1 6-2 against Nadal you really must have an answer to everything Nadal throws at you, Nalbandian never seemed to have any problems with anything Nadal tried during the match. I have never seen that before, against Blake and Berdych there are moments when Nadal is really dominating the match and the opponent is just trying to stay in the match and serve like a madman. That wont work on clay and Nalbandian clearly doesnt need to serve like a madman because he wins all the points from the baseline anyway, he controls the match and Nadal doesnt have the weapons to trouble Nalbandian (power).

On clay things will be different but this is a great demonstration of what Nalby is capable of against Nadal, Nalbandian is a great claycourter and moves well on clay if he is just on the top of his game I definetly see him on top of Nadal even on clay.

DDrago2
10-19-2007, 06:49 PM
Since the beggining, most of MTF was holding Safin and Nalbandian for two potential ultimate Nadal-roasters. Safin faded away after the knee injury, but Nalbandian did his job

Nadal was so lucky not having to play them before

Fed=ATPTourkilla
10-19-2007, 06:56 PM
I still think Safin could be the King of the Roasters if he didn't suck so much these days. It's the sweet double-handed backhands they have. Nadal's main strength (moonball forehand to right-hander's backhand) turns into an horrible weakness which sits up for the double-hander to swat away.

elessar
10-19-2007, 07:03 PM
This is getting ridiculous believe it or not, beating Nadal on an indoor court doesn't equal RG triumph... Nadal's head and shoulders above everyone else at the moment on clay a bad match up and an opponent playing the match of his life would most likely not be enough...

BlueSwan
10-19-2007, 07:15 PM
Bandwagon Player of the Month. We have a winner.
Yeah. Poor Andy Murray - he had the title all but wrapped up before this match.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 07:43 PM
Oh cmon, I ONLY said Nalbandian is a good matchup against Nadal even on clay. Not that he is going to win Madrid and 2 grand slams next year. This has been discussed way before this match and this match just proofed the hype around this matchup was absolutely right.

World Beater
10-19-2007, 08:42 PM
i will reserve judgement about nalbandian - nadal on clay.

Gaudio bh killed nalbandian's at RG. Gaudio put so much more spin and and depth on his to trouble nalbandian's slightly flatter bh.

nalbandian will be a challenge for nadal, but i still think nadal is highly favored on clay. if anyone is beating nadal on clay, its either federer or nalbandian.

GonzoFed
10-19-2007, 08:48 PM
i will reserve judgement about nalbandian - nadal on clay.

Gaudio bh killed nalbandian's at RG. Gaudio put so much more spin and and depth on his to trouble nalbandian's slightly flatter bh.

nalbandian will be a challenge for nadal, but i still think nadal is highly favored on clay. if anyone is beating nadal on clay, its either federer or nalbandian.

Agreed. Gaudio BH in clay when El Gato is playing well :drool:

stebs
10-19-2007, 08:52 PM
i will reserve judgement about nalbandian - nadal on clay.

Gaudio bh killed nalbandian's at RG. Gaudio put so much more spin and and depth on his to trouble nalbandian's slightly flatter bh.

nalbandian will be a challenge for nadal, but i still think nadal is highly favored on clay. if anyone is beating nadal on clay, its either federer or nalbandian.

I think we have discussed what type of game a player would need to do it for some time and it appears to me that Federer has some kind of shot, nt because he has the right type of game but because he is good enough to give it a go with the wrong type of game. Other than him I suppose Nalbandian wouldn't be a bad bet and the other two are the completion of the top 4, Djokovic and Davydenko. They can both finish points from the baseline with one groundy off either wing. They are both excellent at attacking solidly and conistently and they can both take balls on which have lots of spin. They also both move very well meaning the angles aren't so potent.

Personally, I would edge towards saying that, as Nalbandian is unlikely to continue this form into clay seaosn '08, Federer, Djokovic or Davydenko have a better shot at beating Nadal on clay.

World Beater
10-19-2007, 09:07 PM
I think we have discussed what type of game a player would need to do it for some time and it appears to me that Federer has some kind of shot, nt because he has the right type of game but because he is good enough to give it a go with the wrong type of game. Other than him I suppose Nalbandian wouldn't be a bad bet and the other two are the completion of the top 4, Djokovic and Davydenko. They can both finish points from the baseline with one groundy off either wing. They are both excellent at attacking solidly and conistently and they can both take balls on which have lots of spin. They also both move very well meaning the angles aren't so potent.

Personally, I would edge towards saying that, as Nalbandian is unlikely to continue this form into clay seaosn '08, Federer, Djokovic or Davydenko have a better shot at beating Nadal on clay.


davydenko isn't beating nadal on clay. As good as davydenko is, he is just too much of a headcase to beat nadal. I don't want to use the term "choker" as he is not a choker in the traditional sense - like PHM etc. But he just cannot close matches out against top players. He is programmed to beat players under him and lose to those above him.

Actually scratch that. After reading what i wrote, Davydenko is a choker, and a huge one.

So, if i had to put money on it, nalbandian or federer would be the most likely if we take into account all the factors. Nalbandian, unlike safin has a good chance to get back to the top 10 and play some really good tennis.

I'm not sure i agree with nalbandian having a better chance than federer, against nadal because i have more confidence in federer if the matches go the distance, which it will against nadal on clay.

Djokovic has a game that would pose a challenge to nadal, but he is a tier below both federer and nalbandian when it comes to nadal on clay a this point

marcRD
10-19-2007, 09:42 PM
I think it is pretty obvious Nalbandians chances are greater than Federers, specialy if you take into acount the psychological factor when playing Nadal. Nadal has been there before, he knows what to expect from Federer on clay, he knows what he has to do. Against NAlbandian I think Nadal has no clue what to do, specialy after this match Nadal will be thinking alot before facing Nalbandian the next time. So if NAlbandian wins the 1st set in a RG quater final against Nadal expect Nadal to start enter desperation mode much like he did in this match, he will try to play more offensive than he should and probably df alot on 2nd serve because he will be afraid of Nalbys returns.

marcRD
10-19-2007, 09:48 PM
Davydenko is kind of a Nalbandian without many ups and downs, it is always down to business to Davydenko he doesnt play as good as NAlby does at the top of their game but never plays as bad as Nalby does against lower ranked players (unless he is meant to play that bad).

Nalby can beat any top player and lost to anyone on any surface, Davydenko can just beat players lower ranked than himself and will most of the times do that. I would not count on Davydenko to take Nadal out in RG but he could give him a 5 set fight, the only thing which is sure is that Nadal will rise his game the moment he needs to and Davydenko wont stay with Nadal when this happens (like in the 3rd set in Rome).

Djokovic is much like Federer been there done that for Nadal but in straight sets.

stebs
10-19-2007, 10:58 PM
Davydenko is kind of a Nalbandian without many ups and downs, it is always down to business to Davydenko he doesnt play as good as NAlby does at the top of their game but never plays as bad as Nalby does against lower ranked players (unless he is meant to play that bad).
No offence but this is just not true. Davydenko raises his game for the slams and such yes but he has a ton of awful losses in MM's. Davydenko has a higher risk game with less margin for error than Nalbandian and as far as game goes he is just as streaky. At RG against Federer this year I remember seeing him win a game at love with four winners and lose the next at love with four errors.

Nalbandian is a better baseliner than Davydenko at the top of his game, I won't deny it. It's just saying Davydenko doesn't have ups and downs is equivalent to saying the same thing about the Himalayas, it just isn't true.

Nalby can beat any top player and lost to anyone on any surface, Davydenko can just beat players lower ranked than himself and will most of the times do that. I would not count on Davydenko to take Nadal out in RG but he could give him a 5 set fight, the only thing which is sure is that Nadal will rise his game the moment he needs to and Davydenko wont stay with Nadal when this happens (like in the 3rd set in Rome).

Davydenko has the skills, he should've beaten Federer at RG this year and proved that at his best he is a better claycourt rallier than Federer is and him minus the choking would have been finalist in Paris without doubt. As for coutning on him to take out Nadal I wouldn't count on anyone doing it and at RG any player taking nadal to five would be interesting seeing as it hasn't happened before.

Rome was match of the year imo and that is where my Davydenko being one of the best threats has it's greatest evidence. Yes Rome is quicker but Davydenko won't mind the high bounces as he can step into the ball, of course it is several levels above but if Nadal gets defensive we saw what Davydenko did to the ultimate wall of tennis at the RG quarters this year.

Djokovic is much like Federer been there done that for Nadal but in straight sets.

Well Djokovic has a better gamestyle than Federer to trouble Nadal but the problem is he may just not be good enough to do so. If he hit a rich vein of form which he can do although he does tend to be steady quite often it would be an interesting encounter and one area where no-one else can match Nadal is intensity and Djokovic can probably give him a better run for his money than anyone else in that department.

stebs
10-19-2007, 11:00 PM
davydenko isn't beating nadal on clay. As good as davydenko is, he is just too much of a headcase to beat nadal. I don't want to use the term "choker" as he is not a choker in the traditional sense - like PHM etc. But he just cannot close matches out against top players. He is programmed to beat players under him and lose to those above him.

Actually scratch that. After reading what i wrote, Davydenko is a choker, and a huge one.

Choker, yes. If he got close to a win at RG (unlikely) I do not doubt that a combination of Nadal's mental toughness and fight along with the Davydenko choking would stop him from getting the GSM but right now we can only talk of Nadal being troubled, not beaten at RG and along with Federer and Djokovic I think Davydenko is the man. Perhaps Nalbandian should be added but I have my doubts, one match does not a player make.

Djokovic has a game that would pose a challenge to nadal, but he is a tier below both federer and nalbandian when it comes to nadal on clay a this point

That's not what this years evidence would suggest. Djokovic outperformed Nalbandian comfortably in the clay season and of course Nalbandian was playing badly but so what? Where's the evidence he is a tier above Djokovic. I say what Nalbandian has over Djokovic on the ground, Djokovic has over Nalbandian in a mixture of mental toughness and serving.

GonzoFed
10-19-2007, 11:20 PM
Davydenko has the skills, he should've beaten Federer at RG this year and proved that at his best he is a better claycourt rallier than Federer is and him minus the choking would have been finalist in Paris without doubt. As for coutning on him to take out Nadal I wouldn't count on anyone doing it and at RG any player taking nadal to five would be interesting seeing as it hasn't happened before.

Rome was match of the year imo and that is where my Davydenko being one of the best threats has it's greatest evidence. Yes Rome is quicker but Davydenko won't mind the high bounces as he can step into the ball, of course it is several levels above but if Nadal gets defensive we saw what Davydenko did to the ultimate wall of tennis at the RG quarters this year.



Well Djokovic has a better gamestyle than Federer to trouble Nadal but the problem is he may just not be good enough to do so. If he hit a rich vein of form which he can do although he does tend to be steady quite often it would be an interesting encounter and one area where no-one else can match Nadal is intensity and Djokovic can probably give him a better run for his money than anyone else in that department.

I think one should talk about Davydenko getting close to beat Federer if he can take at least a set off Roger. Sure, he was a break ahead during some stage in the three sets of their RG match, but after the chances wasted in the first, Federer wasn't losing. The only match IMO in which Donkey has chances was A0 2006 QF. He was one point away of getting a 2-1 set lead. THAT is getting close.

Merton
10-19-2007, 11:52 PM
Not at all, contrary to popular belief Nadal is beatable against, say, Berdych, Calleri, Andreev. Nalbandian at his best would still be an underdog but he would have good chances. Of course it would take quite a performance to take Nadal out in Paris.

Stebs, Djokovic does not have good chances against Nadal on clay, it is not an accident that he got crushed both times they faced each other, the key is that his forehand is not heavy enough to induce short backhands or errors from Nadal. it reminds me of the Muster-Kafelnikov matchup back in the mid-90s.

Merton
10-19-2007, 11:55 PM
By the way this is a heck of an overreaction, the thread starter was saying how the top players on clay in the 90s were overrated and Nadal would dominate in the same way if he was playing back then and now a bad beat at his worst surface against Nalbandian immediately changes the balance of power on clay and gives Roger some new hope.

World Beater
10-19-2007, 11:59 PM
That's not what this years evidence would suggest. Djokovic outperformed Nalbandian comfortably in the clay season and of course Nalbandian was playing badly but so what? Where's the evidence he is a tier above Djokovic. I say what Nalbandian has over Djokovic on the ground, Djokovic has over Nalbandian in a mixture of mental toughness and serving.


im not saying that nabs is a better than joker on clay.

the serve is a diminished strength on clay, and any advantage djokovic over nabs is reduced in this dept. i feel that nabs is a better returner and better on the baseline than djokovic, and that he is a harder matchup than djokovic.

djokovic's effort at rg was borderline pathetic against nadal. he has no confidence against nadal on clay. it was pretty clear.

you may be talking about giving nadal a hard time and davyd can do that but im talking about actually winning. Nalbandian and federer are more able to WIN than davyd.

marcRD
10-20-2007, 12:38 AM
By the way this is a heck of an overreaction, the thread starter was saying how the top players on clay in the 90s were overrated and Nadal would dominate in the same way if he was playing back then and now a bad beat at his worst surface against Nalbandian immediately changes the balance of power on clay and gives Roger some new hope.

Oh please dont go there, the 90s vs current clay generation has been discussed to death. '

Look if you think this was just a bad beat at his worst surface (a surface where he won 2 years ago) then you are wrong. It is not that Nalbandian won the match, it is how he completely outplayed Nadal without even a fight, it is how he handled Nadals top spin, how he handled Nadals serve. A match like this has never happened before, Nadal just doesnt lose matches 1-6 2-6. I think the reaction "stuff like this happens but wont happen on clay" is much more weird, stuff like this doesnt happen when you are motivated and playing infront of your countrymen and your name is Nadal. I can tell you Berdych, Blake, Federer and Djokovic wont ever win a match 6-1 6-2 against Nadal on any surface.

marcRD
10-20-2007, 12:43 AM
Davydenko vs top players:

vs Nadal 0-2
vs Roddick 0-4
vs Federer 0-10
vs Hewitt 0-4

Merton
10-20-2007, 12:51 AM
Oh please dont go there, the 90s vs current clay generation has been discussed to death. '

Look if you think this was just a bad beat at his worst surface (a surface where he won 2 years ago) then you are wrong. It is not that Nalbandian won the match, it is how he completely outplayed Nadal without even a fight, it is how he handled Nadals top spin, how he handled Nadals serve. A match like this has never happened before, Nadal just doesnt lose matches 1-6 2-6.

Look at Nadal's record indoors, he was the beneficiary of a good draw and a choke from Ljubicic to win in 2005 and kudos to him but what has he done indoors apart from that? But you overestimate the impact of this match versus a matchup on clay. First, David cannot attack the serve on clay the way he does indoors. Second, Nadal would get more time to set up his spin and angles, the impact on clay is totally different from the impact indoors. Third, David would need to keep this level for a long time.

If Nalbandian plays like this on clay against NAdal would you bet against him?

If you look at the other thread about what uncle Toni said back before the RG semis in 2006 you will see that I estimated that David would have about 40% chances in a match on clay. Now I would give 30-35%, and yes, my estimate did not change due to a thrashing received indoors. So to answer your question, it would depend on the price, if I estimated that David would be overpriced I would bet on Nadal and vice-versa.

In a way it reminds me of discussions about the matchup Nadal-Roddick before DC 2004. I was not here at the time but many people were arguing that Roddick would win, based on how he prevailed at their US Open match.

marcRD
10-20-2007, 01:05 AM
Look at Nadal's record indoors, he was the beneficiary of a good draw and a choke from Ljubicic to win in 2005 and kudos to him but what has he done indoors apart from that? But you overestimate the impact of this match versus a matchup on clay. First, David cannot attack the serve on clay the way he does indoors. Second, Nadal would get more time to set up his spin and angles, the impact on clay is totally different from the impact indoors. Third, David would need to keep this level for a long time.

All the things you say are true, but Nalbandian would probably also get some advantages in Nadals serve getting even slower (both 1st and 2nd) and thereby constanyl putting pressure on the serve even if Nadal can more easily defend on Nalbys serve returns. Also Nalbandian would have more time to hit his backhand, so both would gain more time and I think Nalbandian would still have an advantage against Nadals forehand. Obviously Nadal would in the end gain more on clay than Nalbandian, but I think Nalbandian would still have the edge.



If you look at the other thread about what uncle Toni said back before the RG semis in 2006 you will see that I estimated that David would have about 40% chances in a match on clay. Now I would give 30-35%, and yes, my estimate did not change due to a thrashing received indoors. So to answer your question, it would depend on the price, if I estimated that David would be overpriced I would bet on Nadal and vice-versa.

In a way it reminds me of discussions about the matchup Nadal-Roddick before DC 2004. I was not here at the time but many people were arguing that Roddick would win, based on how he prevailed at their US Open match.

Thats good, I would also give Nalbandian a 40-45% chanse but if he plays like today it would be 65-70% (which he doesnt always do). I must admit this match did change the way I see at the matchup a little because I knew Nalbandian was a bad matchup to Nadal before this match but I never imagined anyone woulb be able to destroy and humiliate Nadal like this infront of his homecrowd.

When it comes to Roddick I always knew he was a good matchup for Nadal, his groundstrokes simply arent good enought to stay in the rallies with Nadal.

Merton
10-20-2007, 01:32 AM
All the things you say are true, but Nalbandian would probably also get some advantages in Nadals serve getting even slower (both 1st and 2nd) and thereby constanyl putting pressure on the serve even if Nadal can more easily defend on Nalbys serve returns. Also Nalbandian would have more time to hit his backhand, so both would gain more time and I think Nalbandian would still have an advantage against Nadals forehand. Obviously Nadal would in the end gain more on clay than Nalbandian, but I think Nalbandian would still have the edge.

Nadal's serve getting slower would be irrelevant, the important thing is that it would be less attackable on clay as it is harder to hit return winners. There is no doubt that Nadal would be the beneficiary in terms of the matchip on clay, his game relies on spin and he would benefit much more from the extra time than David would. The fact that Nadal's forehand did not bother David indoors does not mean that it would not bother him on clay.




Thats good, I would also give Nalbandian a 40-45% chanse but if he plays like today it would be 65-70% (which he doesnt always do). I must admit this match did change the way I see at the matchup a little because I knew Nalbandian was a bad matchup to Nadal before this match but I never imagined anyone woulb be able to destroy and humiliate Nadal like this infront of his homecrowd.

When it comes to Roddick I always knew he was a good matchup for Nadal, his groundstrokes simply arent good enought to stay in the rallies with Nadal.

I could not imagine such a scoreline either but lets not get carried away, the crowd effect is overrated, the most important factor was that the match was indoors. Of course in a day like today one would need to adjust the odds but you can never know that in advance, otherwise we would all be millionaires. Overall I would prefer David's chances in best of 3 than in best of 5 and I would still consider Nadal the favourite on clay. Hopefully David returns to his best form and they face each other during the clay season, it would be fan to watch.

Hola Mr. SK
10-20-2007, 01:46 AM
Nadal has been very fortunate not to have Nalby in his side of the RG draws so far. But if they face each other next year in RG I would bet all my money on Nalbandian and Federers former nemesis could be his saviour in the quest for the grand slam.
I would bet some of mine on him to win a rally race.
BOL

dragons112
10-20-2007, 02:09 AM
Federer will beat nadal when he learns how to play him. Roger does not know how to rlaly with nadal yet all of feders slices fit right into nadals forehand so federes game is all broken especially on clay. So roger will need to figure out a way maybe slice everything to his bakhand.

Go roger

Stensland
10-20-2007, 02:14 AM
i don't think nadal will ever lose to nalbandian again this ruffly. if they played again tomorrow, i doubt that nalbandian would just repeat this days' effort like that *snap*.

and paris is a complete other issue. nadal owns that place whereas nalby would have to be in an amazing shape to even bully nadal.

dragons112
10-20-2007, 02:21 AM
Nalbandians games is all about being patient. clay is all about that too. If nadal meets David it will most likely be a huge match and whoever gets through will be easy pickings for the world number 1

marcRD
10-20-2007, 10:43 AM
Federer will beat nadal when he learns how to play him. Roger does not know how to rlaly with nadal yet all of feders slices fit right into nadals forehand so federes game is all broken especially on clay. So roger will need to figure out a way maybe slice everything to his bakhand.

Go roger

Federer cant hit 5 cross backhands in a row close to the lines and with power against Nadals forehand like Nalbandian can do, I never thought I would say this but Federers game is too limited to beat Nadal at the top of his game in RG. I dont think he has the weapons to beat Nadal in RG, Nalbandian can attack balls high on his backhand really like it doesnt bother him at all. Watch how he attacks all those kick 2nd serves with his backhand, even if he has to jump to attack it. No one else can do that, only Nalbandian. I really dont know how he does that.

Things Federer cant do that Nalbandian can do:

Attack high balls with alot of spin with the backhand from anywhere in the court.
Attack the 2nd serve (the only position Nadal has problems defending as he has just finished his serving motion and is not in a good position to cover the court)
Play aggresive tennis still with extremly low risk of making UEs.

Ocourse there are things Federer can do that Nalbandian cant do:

The slice
Powerful serving
Get into position to end points with his powerful forehand
End the points by going to the net.

It is just that besides the serve which is a good weapon to have against Nadal, the other strengths doesnt work that well on clay. The slice should praticaly never be used against Nadal on clay, Nadal just plays to the backhand so he cant use the forehand unless he forces Nadal to play there by outplaying him with the backhand which is almost impossible. If you go to the net against NAdal on clay your approach shot needs to be really great and Federer first needs to get into position with his forehand which doesnt happen alot on clay.

Federer is very good at holding his serve on clay against Nadal, by taking advantage of his serve and killing points later with forehands or going to the net. It is just that he doesnt know how to break Nadal, his returns are not good enought on clay and he has to play with his backhand all the time against Nadals forehand where Nadal has a heavy advantage.

stebs
10-20-2007, 02:08 PM
Stebs, Djokovic does not have good chances against Nadal on clay, it is not an accident that he got crushed both times they faced each other, the key is that his forehand is not heavy enough to induce short backhands or errors from Nadal. it reminds me of the Muster-Kafelnikov matchup back in the mid-90s.

The Djokovic FH hasn't got a great deal of weight behind it I agree but raw pace can still hurt Nadal and Djokovic gets more pace off the FH than Nalbandian because he hits the ball harder. Okay so it's true they have met twice at RG and Djokovic didn't even reach a breaker. All the evidence is in your favour and I am not going to pretend otherwise. However, laughter though it provoked Djokovic does have consistent enough power groundtrokes for his 'in control' statement to be partially true. No, he didn't look like even having a chance then but yes he was in control of the rallies and he has improved even since RG '07. Nadal, I feel, has a way to improve on HC and grass but on clay I feel the way he plays he has almost maxed out that gamestyle, of course, perfection cannot be achieved in sports and it would be folly of me to say that it has but seriously, Nadal on clay cannot get much better than what it is without adding shots to a repoirtoire that would be impossible to do at this stage. Djokovic however can still improve his consistency and his grinding skills are already better now than they were 5 months ago.

Let me get this straight as well, in response to marcRD:

Federer, Djokovic, Davydenko and Nalbandian may be better hopes than the rest but they do share one thing in common with the rest of the tour. They all come in heavy underdog against Nadal on clay and no amount of victories indoors over Nadal can change that as far as I'm concerned.

Oh, and yes, Davydenko sucks at closing any deal against a big player but at this stage no-one has even got close to closing a deal and his game certainly would match up better than Federer's would at RG. I would see him pushing Nadal as far and probably further than Roger has done if they met in a semi.

sigmagirl91
10-20-2007, 02:10 PM
It's a good point, although questionable. We all know how shitty Nalbandian can play - he can lose to anyone from Top 1000 on a given day

But the thing is, defeating Federer in Shanghai 05 gave him more confidence, made him more involved in tennis and he became #3. Now it's a question : can he repeat it after destroying Nadal? We shall see

We did, and David backed up the Nadal win in spectacular fashion.

Merton
10-20-2007, 04:57 PM
The Djokovic FH hasn't got a great deal of weight behind it I agree but raw pace can still hurt Nadal and Djokovic gets more pace off the FH than Nalbandian because he hits the ball harder. Okay so it's true they have met twice at RG and Djokovic didn't even reach a breaker. All the evidence is in your favour and I am not going to pretend otherwise. However, laughter though it provoked Djokovic does have consistent enough power groundtrokes for his 'in control' statement to be partially true. No, he didn't look like even having a chance then but yes he was in control of the rallies and he has improved even since RG '07. Nadal, I feel, has a way to improve on HC and grass but on clay I feel the way he plays he has almost maxed out that gamestyle, of course, perfection cannot be achieved in sports and it would be folly of me to say that it has but seriously, Nadal on clay cannot get much better than what it is without adding shots to a repoirtoire that would be impossible to do at this stage. Djokovic however can still improve his consistency and his grinding skills are already better now than they were 5 months ago.

Let me get this straight as well, in response to marcRD:

Federer, Djokovic, Davydenko and Nalbandian may be better hopes than the rest but they do share one thing in common with the rest of the tour. They all come in heavy underdog against Nadal on clay and no amount of victories indoors over Nadal can change that as far as I'm concerned.

Oh, and yes, Davydenko sucks at closing any deal against a big player but at this stage no-one has even got close to closing a deal and his game certainly would match up better than Federer's would at RG. I would see him pushing Nadal as far and probably further than Roger has done if they met in a semi.

I didn't make myself clear there, I had in mind their two matches this year, in Rome and Paris. Still your point is well taken, even if Nadal has room for improvement on clay, Djokovic has much more upside on the surface but potential is not always realized, we will see what happens next year.

Fedex
10-20-2007, 09:09 PM
Put Nalbandian and Nadal on center court at RG, Nadal will win in straights 5/10, in four 3/10, in five 1/10 and will lose 1/10. He is just head and shoulders ahead on clay and Nalbandian wouldn't be able to control so much.

I'm not so sure about this. Nalbandian's game does match up favorably with Nadal's. Nadal should still win the majority of the matches on clay, however.

marcRD
11-04-2007, 04:26 PM
BUMP!

If Nalbandian is a bad matchup for Federer, how bad is the matchup for Nadal?

On clay Nadal will have a better shot against Nalbandian, but playing high on Nalbys backhand wont do it for Nadal anywhere. Nalby can always attack high balls on his backhands no matter from where in the court or how high and how much topspin you put on these balls. Nalbandian is kind of the perfect matchup against Nadal, specialy with that improved serve.

World Beater
11-04-2007, 04:28 PM
BUMP!

If Nalbandian is a bad matchup for Federer, how bad is the matchup for Nadal?

On clay Nadal will have a better shot against Nalbandian, but playing high on Nalbys backhand wont do it for Nadal anywhere. Nalby can always attack high balls on his backhands no matter from where in the court or how high and how much topspin you put on these balls. Nalbandian is kind of the perfect matchup against Nadal, specialy with that improved serve.


good prediction. you were one of the few who said nalbandian would destroy nadal today.:wavey:

riff
11-04-2007, 04:38 PM
serve is a key, it is so much improved, and make David more complete
on clay Nadal is still favorite (or is he) but on any other surface - fast or slower like this week, no contest
I doubt that Nalbandian can keep this form, it would be fantastic to enter AO with this kind of form
I remember Safin winning Madrid and Paris and the AO 2005

marcRD
11-04-2007, 05:42 PM
good prediction. you were one of the few who said nalbandian would destroy nadal today.:wavey:

Yes, I actually predicted this outcome already in the quaterfinals:


Nadal will go easily to the final where Nalbandian will crush him.

So I hope I have given the thread more credibility now then when I kind of "jumped the bandwagon" after Nalby beat Nadal in qf.

Nalby handles Nadals game like no other player can do, I hope people can agree with atleast this.

Black Adam
11-04-2007, 06:56 PM
This doesn't really help Roger in Paris as Nalby will also be kicking his ass. It will be interesting to see how Nalby handles Nadal on Clay. Also remember that until now, fitness has a habit of letting Nalbandian down in the later stages of Slams.

World Beater
11-04-2007, 07:01 PM
This doesn't really help Roger in Paris as Nalby will also be kicking his ass. It will be interesting to see how Nalby handles Nadal on Clay. Also remember that until now, fitness has a habit of letting Nalbandian down in the later stages of Slams.

the point is i give federer a better chance to beat nalbandian on clay than nadal.

he's actually done it in a tight match when david was playing very well in rome.

marcRD
11-04-2007, 07:01 PM
This doesn't really help Roger in Paris as Nalby will also be kicking his ass. It will be interesting to see how Nalby handles Nadal on Clay. Also remember that until now, fitness has a habit of letting Nalbandian down in the later stages of Slams.

I would Federer-Nalbandian is 50-50 in any surface except grass, his chanses to beat Nalby in RG final is better than beating Nadal.

Action Jackson
11-05-2007, 08:42 AM
BUMP!

If Nalbandian is a bad matchup for Federer, how bad is the matchup for Nadal?

On clay Nadal will have a better shot against Nalbandian, but playing high on Nalbys backhand wont do it for Nadal anywhere. Nalby can always attack high balls on his backhands no matter from where in the court or how high and how much topspin you put on these balls. Nalbandian is kind of the perfect matchup against Nadal, specialy with that improved serve.

Nadal has more time to run down shots on clay and you think Nalbandian is going to be playing at this same level as he has shown over the last 3 weeks consistently?

You still making the same mistake as before with the match up thing. I would love to see Nadal never beat Nalbandian at all, but I want to see a match between them on clay first before saying anything.

Nadal is nearly always likely to make the final on clay, this is something that can't be said about Nalbandian.