Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

crouching
09-12-2007, 02:42 PM
Hello everyone

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.
Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed


Year End Schedules

According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna


Possible points from now until end of year

Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fede.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/djo.jpg

Possible Scenario 1
It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.
It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/compare.jpg
(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!


Possible Scenario 2
Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fed1.jpg


Possible Scenario 3
Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad1.jpg


Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.

MisterQ
09-12-2007, 02:49 PM
Interesting, thanks for crunching all those number! :hatoff:

CmonAussie
09-12-2007, 03:02 PM
Hello everyone

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.
Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed


Year End Schedules

According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna


Possible points from now until end of year

Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fede.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/djo.jpg

Possible Scenario 1
It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.
It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/compare.jpg
(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!


Possible Scenario 2
Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fed1.jpg


Possible Scenario 3
Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1
http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad1.jpg


Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.



:worship: :worship:
Excellent summary:cool: ~~ but the fact is everyone knows FED is #1 for 2007 [he won 3-Slams & that`s all that matters in the end];)

celia
09-12-2007, 03:04 PM
Thanks for the conclusion :lol: ;)

stebs
09-12-2007, 03:21 PM
Thanks for the numbers. :)

Stensland
09-12-2007, 03:26 PM
i love people who get so deeply involved. :)

R.Federer
09-12-2007, 03:29 PM
Excellent, thank you.

Could you do something for No.2 v/s No.3? Or is it all sewn up for the year now?

tennisdreams
09-12-2007, 03:30 PM
This was so interesting!.. Thanks for all the info!

Polikarpov
09-12-2007, 03:31 PM
Amazing job. Thanks!

mangoes
09-12-2007, 03:33 PM
Thanks for the numbers:D

victory1
09-12-2007, 03:54 PM
Wow, that was great. Thank you!!

barbadosan
09-12-2007, 04:03 PM
Thank you for a great effort :)

patrickc
09-12-2007, 04:06 PM
It was great of you to take the time to do this

alfonsojose
09-12-2007, 04:11 PM
Thanks for the info :yeah: . A good thread involving JesusFed, Nadal and Nole is hard to find these days :zzz:

BlueSwan
09-12-2007, 04:14 PM
Great work! Love this kind of stuff.

anon57
09-12-2007, 04:31 PM
Thanks for all the info,

Snowwy
09-12-2007, 05:59 PM
Thanks :)

Whistleway
09-12-2007, 06:23 PM
So pretty much, the gap between 1 and 2 will be less than 1000 entry points come AO. Very interesting times!

guga2120
09-12-2007, 08:19 PM
Nadal is out of Bangkok, and Madrid is in question, so it could be possible that come Australia, Novak is #2.

Alex999
09-12-2007, 08:35 PM
Great work. I think Fed will end up as #1. However Novak has good chances to overtake #2 from Nadal.

Johnny Groove
09-12-2007, 08:48 PM
Well done sir, interesting :hatoff:

Sunset of Age
09-12-2007, 08:55 PM
Nadal is out of Bangkok, and Madrid is in question, so it could be possible that come Australia, Novak is #2.

Is that so? :confused:

Loremaster
09-12-2007, 08:56 PM
The only possibility Roger loses no.1 in 2007 is injury and I don't want that it to happen, I would like Rafa to be no.1 but only beacuse of playing great and being better whole year than Roger, Roger deserved it and respect hor him for playing so great tennis whole year

guga2120
09-12-2007, 09:03 PM
Is that so? :confused: spanish news said, he hopes to play Madrid.

RonE
09-12-2007, 09:14 PM
Brilliant summary :worship:

Adler
09-12-2007, 10:12 PM
Kudos for great, great work! :)

uNIVERSE mAN
09-12-2007, 10:32 PM
fantastic stuff crouching ;)

caleb_123
09-12-2007, 10:54 PM
mate this is what you call a real thread excellent calculations. Maybe the best thread in the last few months.
Fed is a lock for number 1 and i think the fight between number 2 and 3 will be interesting.

megadeth
09-13-2007, 01:14 AM
more scenarios please! :) good job!!!

sawan66278
09-13-2007, 01:29 AM
Incredible job, sir...simply incredible. Since you seem on top of all matter related to the rankings, what is the worst case scenario that would allow Rafa to end the year #2 over Darth Cheater? And, what would have to happen early next year, for Rafa to become #1 (even if briefly)?

Marek.
09-13-2007, 01:50 AM
Thank you for these stats. :worship: :worship: :worship:

It would be hilarious if Fed somehow ends the year as number three with three slams. :lol::o

calvinhobbes
09-13-2007, 02:39 AM
Good job. But I believe the real scenario is if Fed is fed-up of being No. 1 and decides not to stay any longer. On the contrary, he would take any aditional tournament if he sees his position under enemy fire. That would be the most safe scenario for Roger to end as No. 1.:D :D :D

MrChopin
09-13-2007, 05:36 AM
Thanks for the numbers!

Predictions:

Federer
Tokyo W
Basel W
Madrid W
TMC W

Nadal
Madrid S
TMC S

Djokovic
Bangkok W
Madrid F
Paris W
TMC F

gives:

1. Federer (1521)
2. Nadal (1117)
3. Djokovic (1057)

It'll be a battle next spring to see who emerges #2 in time for clay. I'm thinking Djokovic has #2 by RG, meaning there could be a Fed-Nadal semi.

SixPack
09-13-2007, 05:40 AM
IMO, if Nadal had not injured himself in Wimbledon( Nadal got screwed with all the rain delays), he would have won Wimbledon and then his momentum would have been enouhg for him to win the US Open. Nadal's lost to Ferrer was a fluke, they play again 10 times and Nadal would beat Ferrer 10 times.

Maxinefilo
09-13-2007, 06:53 AM
Great job....
Thanks for all the calculations

Farenhajt
09-13-2007, 11:41 AM
Djokovic will NOT play Bangkok. He finishes DC on Sunday and must appear in Bangkok on Tuesday at the latest - not feasible, given the distance, the jet lag etc. (He also mentioned he'll be spending three weeks in Belgrade, so go figure.)

He did mention Vienna, Madrid, Paris and Shanghai - so, no Basel either.

dragons112
09-13-2007, 11:47 AM
fed will get it

jcempire
09-13-2007, 04:59 PM
Excellent summary

I like it

jcempire
09-13-2007, 04:59 PM
Djokovic will NOT play Bangkok. He finishes DC on Sunday and must appear in Bangkok on Tuesday at the latest - not feasible, given the distance, the jet lag etc. (He also mentioned he'll be spending three weeks in Belgrade, so go figure.)

He did mention Vienna, Madrid, Paris and Shanghai - so, no Basel either.

He got to win two master to get 200 points. That may finally over come Roger. I guess that's only way, Djok can come to Top

R.Federer
09-13-2007, 05:20 PM
Getting Number 2 must be quite important for djokovic seeing as he probably doesn't want to run into both Nadal and Federer in a slam or TMS.
For this reason, hanging on to No. 2 (or switching No.1 with Federer) should also be a priority for Nadal. Interesting to see how this pans out by next FO. Poor Federer, if he has to run into Nadal in the semis :scared:

l_mac
09-13-2007, 06:05 PM
Thanks for the numbers!

Predictions:

Federer
Tokyo W
Basel W
Madrid W
TMC W

Nadal
Madrid S
TMC S

Djokovic
Bangkok W
Madrid F
Paris W
TMC F

gives:

1. Federer (1521)
2. Nadal (1117)
3. Djokovic (1057)




Why isn't Nadal playing Paris? You certainly have high expectations for Nole's indoor season. Hope you are mistaken :)

Sunset of Age
09-13-2007, 06:09 PM
Getting Number 2 must be quite important for djokovic seeing as he probably doesn't want to run into both Nadal and Federer in a slam or TMS.
For this reason, hanging on to No. 2 (or switching No.1 with Federer) should also be a priority for Nadal. Interesting to see how this pans out by next FO. Poor Federer, if he has to run into Nadal in the semis :scared:

Indeed! BTW, I don't think Raf would particularly look forward to meeting Fed in the semi and Djoko in the final either... so yes, I do hope that both #1 and #2 keep their positions (or exchange them, though I don't see that happening).

MrChopin
09-13-2007, 10:36 PM
Why isn't Nadal playing Paris? You certainly have high expectations for Nole's indoor season. Hope you are mistaken :)

Rafa may very well play Paris, especially if Djokovic is closing in. I don't know much about his current condition though, other than that he's not going to Bangkok. If he isn't in immediate danger of losing #2 (he wouldn't drop #2 even with the Djokovic-strong schedule I predicted) and is still feeling poor, I'd be surprised that he'd push himself at Madrid, though he's been making a habit of it all year.

I didn't really think too much about it when I made that. In retrospect, I think that Djokovic may not do that well, especially if the draw doesn't work out for him like it did at USO (and to a smaller extent, Montreal, as extreme as that sounds). I'd like to see how he compares to Davydenko and Blake, who will both probably be at Madrid and Paris. I think they can give him more trouble than Roddick or Nadal, at least on an arbitrary day. Someone mentioned him not playing Bangkok because it's right after DC, meaning he wouldn't get those points.

And I'd rather not see Djokovic at #2. His draw for USO was a cake walk composed of hardly-ready clay players (Stepanek aside, and I'd hoped for more from Ferrer). Until he really proves himself by winning a major or beating the best hard court players, like Federer, Blake, Davydenko, I still don't see him as strong as I (wrongfully--thanks for pointing that out) predicted.

zadle69
09-13-2007, 10:42 PM
i dont agree while the players he had to play had a good hardcourt season. so by far novak did have the hardest us open draw. he is closing in on number 2 though

Marek.
09-13-2007, 10:44 PM
Getting Number 2 must be quite important for djokovic seeing as he probably doesn't want to run into both Nadal and Federer in a slam or TMS.
For this reason, hanging on to No. 2 (or switching No.1 with Federer) should also be a priority for Nadal. Interesting to see how this pans out by next FO. Poor Federer, if he has to run into Nadal in the semis :scared:

Either there or the finals. Doesn't make that much of a difference. :shrug: I mean, sure if he somehow beats him he'd still have to win another match but you'd think he have to being playing extremely well just to beat Nadal in the first place that he would lose to no one else.

barbadosan
09-13-2007, 11:38 PM
Rafa may very well play Paris, especially if Djokovic is closing in. I don't know much about his current condition though, other than that he's not going to Bangkok.

Nadal, Roddick, Djokovic to star in Bangkok tournament
Bangkok Post, Thailand - 3 hours ago
http://www.bangkokpost.com/Sports/14Sep2007_sport27.php

Can someone confirm where the story is that Nadal is not playing Bangkok?

l_mac
09-13-2007, 11:55 PM
His doctor has said that he has to rest for 7-10 days so it is unlikely he will play Bangkok. Obviously the tournament director isn't going to be in a hurry to announce that his two top ranked players aren't going to play. Maybe Nadal is delaying his withdrawl because he still hopes to play. That sounds like the sort of smart decision making we've got used to :)

This article was translated by nou.amic at vamosbrigade.com:

13 Sept 07 · Diario de Mallorca

TENIS. LA SALUD DEL NÚMERO 2 DEL MUNDO

Descanso para Nadal
El número dos del mundo sufre una inflamación del tendón rotuliano y reaparecerá el 15 de octubre en Madrid
http://www.diariodemallorca.es/secciones/noticia.jsp?pRef=1652_11_292477__Deportes-Descanso-para-Nadal


Rest for Nadal

The world number two has inflammation of the rotular tendon and will reappear on 15th October in Madrid

Translated by nou.amic for VamosBrigade.com

Rafael Nadal will be out of competition for a month. That is the recommendation of Doctor Angel Ruiz Cotorro, both the Spanish Tennis Federation and the player's own doctor, whom he visited yesterday in Barcelona. Nadal is suffering from an inflammation in the rotular tendon of his left knee which means he must follow a conservative course of treatment. Until next Friday, 21st Sept, he has to rest but it will be 'active rest' incorporating physiotherapy and muscle rehabilitation treatment.

"The aim is to work his muscles well so that the tone is recovered as soon as possible," Dr Ruiz Cotorro commented to this newspaper yesterday, shortly after he had finished the final test the player had to undergo.

This sudden stop has forced Nadal to make changes in his proposed calendar. The first tournament he had scheduled for after the US Open was Bangkok, which begins September 24th. Unless there is a surprise, he will not be going to the tournament in Thailand, although that decision has not yet been taken as it remains to be seen how the injury evolves. The aim, however, is to return to competition at the Masters Series Madrid, on 15th October, a date Ruiz Cotorro thinks "reasonable".

After ten days of what the doctor terms "active rest", Nadal will start training gently at first and then gradually increase the intensity of the work to get himself into form so that he is in top condition for the final tournaments of the season, with the Shanghai Masters basically the main objective. Before that there is the Paris Bercy tournament, which the player wants to take part in.

The injury that will force him to be a month on the sidelines occurred on Sunday 26th August, the day prior to his debut in the US Open against Australian Alun Jones. The player felt a sudden sharp pain which affected him for the rest of the tournament. After losing to David Ferrer in the fourth round, Nadal admitted that it was difficult to play "thinking more about your knees than your opponents".

Doctor Ruiz Cotorro, who does not think the player's injury is worrying but that it does need seeing to, said that saying whether Nadal should reduce the number of tournaments he plays in the season is not his province: "that's a matter for the player and his Uncle Toni", but what he is quite clear about is that "Nadal needed a rest after Wimbledon. The large number of tournaments he has played, the surface changes and other circumstances made for a rest, which has come now, and will do him good."

Nadal has consolidated his place at number two in the ATP Entries List, although the Serbian US Open finalist, Novak Djokovic, is hard on his heels.

R.Federer
09-13-2007, 11:58 PM
So where did this injury come about? Was it at Cincy or at the US Open? It didn't seem apparent prior to the match with Pics

l_mac
09-14-2007, 12:01 AM
So where did this injury come about? Was it at Cincy or at the US Open? It didn't seem apparent prior to the match with Pics


What?

R.Federer
09-14-2007, 12:11 AM
What?

Huh?
I am asking about the injury Nadal has. Where it originated/When it originated. Was it in that last match at the USO or prior or did he carry it all summer long.

l_mac
09-14-2007, 12:13 AM
Huh?
I am asking about the injury Nadal has. Where it originated/When it originated. Was it in that last match at the USO or prior or did he carry it all summer long.

He's had his knee strapped since the Wimbledon final and had suffered some sort of injury to his other knee during a practise with Murray the day before the USO began. Don't you remember all the "Nadal might withdraw" threads? He played with both knees heavily strapped in all his matches at the Open. I think it's "just" tendonitis.

R.Federer
09-14-2007, 12:16 AM
He's had his knee strapped since the Wimbledon final and had suffered some sort of injury to his other knee during a practise with Murray the day before the USO began. Don't you remember all the "Nadal might withdraw" threads? He played with both knees heavily strapped in all his matches at the Open. I think it's "just" tendonitis.
Okay... I guess I am asking because he did play Stuttgart, then he did play in Montreal, he did play in Cincy, and he played on till he lost in the USO. So I assumed there was no rest-needing injury and just something niggling. But seeing that his doctor wants him out for a month I thought it was something he damaged in his last match.
He needs a better set of medical advisers to tour with him. He's fortunate it requires only a month of recuperation

l_mac
09-14-2007, 12:19 AM
He only wants him to rest for a week or so. Hopefully the knees won't be strapped when he plays again.

Johnny Groove
09-14-2007, 12:19 AM
I think he is referring more to what was referenced in the article.

Nadal's left knee has been strapped since Wimbledon, and when he came to Canada, we all saw it.

Then, after withdrawing from Cincy, a few days before the USO started, he hurt his RIGHT knee. A tendon. This is from overcompensating (favoring the right, ergo applying more weight and/or pressure on it) due to the left knee injury

megadeth
09-14-2007, 12:25 AM
i've got tendonitis as well from imitating nadal's movement on the court after a month of playing tennis on only thurs, saturdays, and sundays....

seriously...

imagine what a year long week in- week out of that kind of game would do to nadal's knees!!!

Byrd
09-14-2007, 12:30 AM
i've got tendonitis as well from imitating nadal's movement on the court after a month of playing tennis on only thurs, saturdays, and sundays....

seriously...

imagine what a year long week in- week out of that kind of game would do to nadal's knees!!!

what were you playing on hardcourts?, nadal plays alot of clay tourneys so it doesnt affect him as much until the latter half of the year.

megadeth
09-14-2007, 12:36 AM
what were you playing on hardcourts?, nadal plays alot of clay tourneys so it doesnt affect him as much until the latter half of the year.

yea, that was on harcourts... it really does a number on the knees... that's why fed's ballet-like movement is the best way to navigate through hardcourts IMO since it doesn't stress too much...

kinda gives me a new found respect for guys like agassi, connors, and sampras, who played a majority of their tourneys on hard courts in their long careers.

barbadosan
09-14-2007, 01:06 AM
Thanks I_Mac

rwn
09-17-2007, 10:28 AM
yea, that was on harcourts... it really does a number on the knees... that's why fed's ballet-like movement is the best way to navigate through hardcourts IMO since it doesn't stress too much...

kinda gives me a new found respect for guys like agassi, connors, and sampras, who played a majority of their tourneys on hard courts in their long careers.

They played a lot on carpet as well. Most of those tournaments are now hardcourt tournaments ...

~*BGT*~
09-17-2007, 03:47 PM
I'd like to see an analysis for the top 8. What would have to happen for Andy and James to finish in the top 5 or for Richie to finish in the top 10, and dare I say it, top 8?? :)

R.Federer
09-17-2007, 10:19 PM
He got to win two master to get 200 points. That may finally over come Roger. I guess that's only way, Djok can come to Top

It won't be enough. The differential is over 300 points.

Even he were to get 300 points, it would require Federer to gain zero points in that time to have any overtaking. A very very safe bet that djokovic is not going to the top of the race this year.

barbadosan
09-30-2007, 01:16 AM
bump

trixtah
09-30-2007, 02:36 AM
bump

Got something to add?

Tiklish
09-30-2007, 02:52 AM
I've been a casual tennis fan for a long time and only got totally involved the last couple months. I have no idea how the year ATP points thing works as compared to the continuous ranking points thing. Is there someone here who could explain that? The one thing I seem to have discovered today, which turns my stomach, is that it appears that you only gain ranking points the first time you win something if you win it every year? I mean, is it really possible that Federer has been gaining NO ranking points for all these slams the last few years? Did he really only gain points for the 2003 Wimbledon and nothing for all the Wimbledons since then? I saw he gained no points for winning this years US Open. He had 7605 before and after it. If the system is really this crazy a person could win every tournament they enter every year and lose their number one ranking because they only gained points the first time they won, while all the people who aren't winning are gaining points as long as they don't lose real early. Is this system really that screwed up? If I sound clueless, like I said at the beginning, I am, when it comes to this points thing. Any help would be appreciated.

trixtah
09-30-2007, 03:02 AM
I've been a casual tennis fan for a long time and only got totally involved the last couple months. I have no idea how the year ATP points thing works as compared to the continuous ranking points thing. Is there someone here who could explain that? The one thing I seem to have discovered today, which turns my stomach, is that it appears that you only gain ranking points the first time you win something if you win it every year? I mean, is it really possible that Federer has been gaining NO ranking points for all these slams the last few years? Did he really only gain points for the 2003 Wimbledon and nothing for all the Wimbledons since then? I saw he gained no points for winning this years US Open. He had 7605 before and after it. If the system is really this crazy a person could win every tournament they enter every year and lose their number one ranking because they only gained points the first time they won, while all the people who aren't winning are gaining points as long as they don't lose real early. Is this system really that screwed up? If I sound clueless, like I said at the beginning, I am, when it comes to this points thing. Any help would be appreciated.

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=110292&highlight=ranking :) Not as confusing as it seems

CmonAussie
09-30-2007, 04:09 AM
I've been a casual tennis fan for a long time and only got totally involved the last couple months. I have no idea how the year ATP points thing works as compared to the continuous ranking points thing. Is there someone here who could explain that? The one thing I seem to have discovered today, which turns my stomach, is that it appears that you only gain ranking points the first time you win something if you win it every year? I mean, is it really possible that Federer has been gaining NO ranking points for all these slams the last few years? Did he really only gain points for the 2003 Wimbledon and nothing for all the Wimbledons since then? I saw he gained no points for winning this years US Open. He had 7605 before and after it. If the system is really this crazy a person could win every tournament they enter every year and lose their number one ranking because they only gained points the first time they won, while all the people who aren't winning are gaining points as long as they don't lose real early. Is this system really that screwed up? If I sound clueless, like I said at the beginning, I am, when it comes to this points thing. Any help would be appreciated.


sorry but i found your post very amusing:D :cool:
...
think it through carefully;)
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with your logic here then~~ Borg, Connors,& Sampras etc.. would still be ranked inside the Top-5, as they gained plenty of points back in the day:devil:

it only makes sense that the previous years points should come off, if players continually accumulated points [without previous years results being taken off] we`d have no sense of time & place:p

actually the tennis rankings are quite simple compared with the golf rankings [which uses a 2-3yrs rolling system];)

Tiklish
09-30-2007, 10:07 PM
I would think retirement would be grounds for being off the ranking list entirely. As for previous years points being taken off, I never noticed that everyone starts the year with zero in the ranking standings. It appears to me points are carrying over or everyone would start as equals and there'd be no rankings at all at the beginning of the year. My complaint is that it appears people gain no points for winning tournaments if they've won the tournament the prior year, so a person could literally win every tournament they enter for a decade and not be number one because they only got points for the tournament the first time they won. For that matter, wouldn't they fall further and further behind the longer they keep winning everything, since others would be gaining points every year they improve at a particular tournament and the person winning everything every year CAN'T improve so can't gain points?

Johnny Groove
09-30-2007, 10:36 PM
This is fucking hilarious.

Dude, Federer wins the USO in 2004 and got 1000 points for it. He defended it in 05/06/07 and thus did not lose or gain any points for it. Had he lost to Nole in the final, he'd have lost 300 points, only getting 700 finalist points.

the atp only counts points for 52 weeks. The top 18 tourneys someone enters. The points only stay on for one year

LinkMage
09-30-2007, 10:44 PM
No, players that don't win a tournament don't add more points the next year. Points are replaced. If someone gets to the Wimbledon semifinal one year he gets 450 points and the following year he gets to the QF he loses 200 points (the 450 points he got the previous year get replaced by the 250 points that are given to a quarterfinalist).

maconick
10-08-2007, 11:51 AM
Will federer still play basel

dragons112
10-08-2007, 12:16 PM
Nadal i sso overatted he only wins on clay lol.

But he is a good player but his style is already giving him injuries

BlueSwan
10-08-2007, 03:02 PM
I would think retirement would be grounds for being off the ranking list entirely. As for previous years points being taken off, I never noticed that everyone starts the year with zero in the ranking standings. It appears to me points are carrying over or everyone would start as equals and there'd be no rankings at all at the beginning of the year. My complaint is that it appears people gain no points for winning tournaments if they've won the tournament the prior year, so a person could literally win every tournament they enter for a decade and not be number one because they only got points for the tournament the first time they won. For that matter, wouldn't they fall further and further behind the longer they keep winning everything, since others would be gaining points every year they improve at a particular tournament and the person winning everything every year CAN'T improve so can't gain points?

This is what you're missing:

Players do NOT start at zero points when the year starts. This is only the case for the so-called "Race-rankings", which few tennis fans follow anyway.

The regular rankings uses a 52-week running total. So your best 18 results from the last 52 weeks are used to form your ranking.

So players ALWAYS get points for winning tournaments. In the regular rankings this is reflected in your points total not changing when you're succesfully defending a title. In the race rankings you gain the points you win, since in those rankings you start out the year with zero points.

This is why we talk a lot about defending points. For instance, Rafael Nadal has got a ton of points to defend during the clay season, while Federer has got a ton of points to defend pretty much all year round.