crouching

09-12-2007, 01:42 PM

Hello everyone

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.

Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed

Year End Schedules

According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna

Possible points from now until end of year

Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fede.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/djo.jpg

Possible Scenario 1

It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.

It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/compare.jpg

(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!

Possible Scenario 2

Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fed1.jpg

Possible Scenario 3

Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad1.jpg

Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.

Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed

Year End Schedules

According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna

Possible points from now until end of year

Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fede.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad.jpg

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/djo.jpg

Possible Scenario 1

It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.

It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/compare.jpg

(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!

Possible Scenario 2

Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/fed1.jpg

Possible Scenario 3

Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1

http://www.bigbrew.plus.com/tmc/nad1.jpg

Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.