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post #87 of (permalink) Old 05-06-2010, 11:40 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
I also like the reverse FUKG (France, United Kingdom, Germany).
...which doesn't make sense though in this context: it's about countries whose debt has been spiraling out of control, which is why markets have attacked them in the last couple of months.

BASTARD and STUPID does make sense though.

Originally Posted by henrychinaski
This is as much of a bailout for the German and French banks as it is for Greece.
i doubt it. obviously banks are benefactors, i give you that. it's not as big a deal monetarily as you'd think though. german banks would need to write off about 40 billion euros if all of their money would vanish. that's the worst-case scenario though. between black (giving greece aid) and white (letting them die alone) there are tons of shades. germany/france/brussels could make them have a "haircut", which means athens would sort of partly default - foreign institutional creditors usually still get served, first and foremost, as we've seen in argentina. that way germany would a) save tons of taxpayers' money and b) its banks would still keep their cash.

another thing many seem to forget is that russia or china would probably swoop in if europe decided to let greece slip. sure, it'd mean quite a blow for euuopean geopolitics to have another "entity" among its nations, another major player to cope with right on the doorstep - but money-wise, like i said, taxpayers in germany and france would be better off.

if germany acted in "self-interest", as you point out, they'd demand much more collateral: we give you cash and you blow it - we take over your companies, your shipping lines, your infrastructure, your country, everything. that's what happens on the market. if we'd actually have one.
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