By now I think Nadal has a better shot than not to win MC, Barcelona, Rome and RG. That would give him 8,550 points+whatever he gets from Madrid which I think he wont play.
Federe will have to win more than 1240 points in Rome, Estoril, Madrid and RG to secure nr1 in that case. So lets say Federer loses in an early round in Rome, wins Estoril, loses in SF in Madrid and in QF in RG, that would mean Nadal would be nr1 before Federer can get his record. While Fed probably will produce better results than that I can see the danger if he plays bad before RG and I really can see Federer losing before SF in RG aswell.
Federer still is 80% to break the record, but after Wimbledon Nadal should be nr1.
Agreed. I'm no longer positive that Federer breaks the record but it is still the most likely scenario.