He wrote again, but it's not about himself, he only explains in general why, even being top 10 and even if he's optimistic, he has less than 1% chance to win the tournament when he enters a Slam.
First 2 rounds: he gives himself 80% chances to win. 80% and 64% (80% of 80%). 2/3 chances to reach the round 3.
3rd round is against a player ranked between #17 and #24 -> he gives himself 50% chances to win in all honesty. So he has 32% cchances to still be there in the 2nd week.
4th round is against a player ranked between 5th and 8th (Jo, Delpo, A-Rod, Davydenko): let's be optimistic and say he has 50% chances again -> 16% chances to reach the QF.
And then it's Murray, Nadal and Fed. Thanks to Fed for embellishing his stats against the top 3, but it's still looking quite bad. If he's very optimistic, he gives himself 33% chances to win each match against them -> 5% to make it to the SF, 1,75% the F and 0,85 % to win the title.
A Slam means you have "a real chance to win" 7 times. But in the end, it basically amounts to zero chance.
The real strength of the top 4 is that they almost never lose, at least before the QF or the SF. Fed is a legend, he never loses against a player ranked outside of the top 10 in Slams. And even against players like A-Rod or Gonzo, his record is astounding.
"You know what? Wish me "bonne(s) chance(s)" for the US Open!" (It's the same word in French to say "good luck" & "a good chance").
He has less than 50% chances to win against Jo, Delpo & Co. imo, and it doesn't have to be Muzza, Nadal and Fed in the last rounds, so the whole thing is not very accurate, but it's not the point either.
he probably doesnt want to get his or other peoples hopes up!! its easier to deal with a loss when youre expecting it or think its very possible. so if he doesnt win its ok cause he didnt expect so much, but if he wins the joy is bigger!!
i usually act like this - always prepare myself for the worst so its easier to deal with if it gets to that!
'Cause I am due for a miracle, I'm waiting for a sign,I'll stare straight into the sun,
And I won't close my eyes,Till I understand or go blind ...
Interesting, but I don't really need the math to know that his chance is slim. There's only 4 men who won slams since 2004. Still, it sounds so pessimistic eventhough it's realistic . Bonne Chance then, Gillou, do your best.
Thanks Fran, for the article.
I corrected myself, there were 5 men who won slams since 2004. I forgot Gaudio, the anormaly.
Tanx fran for the article The maths was slightly puzzling but then again i've never been a fan of maths lol Anyway I just wish Gilles a huge 'GUD LUCK' for the US Open, because I always think that at the end of the day its the luck that matters