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post #15 of (permalink) Old 02-03-2010, 04:12 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I have updated the format of the thread a bit, and listed all events and dates for the ATP250 and better events listed on ATP site. Also I do realize that although I track how well the current top players fare against roger, I may have missed some players outside top 6 who potentially can score more, and I feel that I cannot make a statement as strong as "GUARANTEE", meaning 100% certainty, without calculating the possible points from the rest of the field. So I added notes upfront to explain that part. If anyone can provide some easy way to prove that the rest of the field MATHEMATICALLY WILL NOT catch up, therefore complete the proof to make the "GUARANTEE", I will update it into my post.

Originally Posted by duong View Post
- I guess that Nadal will be able to count his Davis Cup points (150 points at the moment) after Rotterdam (from the 15th of february and all later weeks) : at this moment, he will have only played 3 ATP500 tournaments in the last 52 weeks, and the rule ( Rankings FAQ) should let him count his Davis Cup points as they are better than his lower ATP250 result (which is 0 actually as he has only played one ATP250 tournament)

- Davydenko will have at least 90 points more from the 19th of april : his 90 points from Beijing last year will replace his result from Monte-Carlo ... but he will probably get more either in Monte-Carlo, or in Rotterdam or in Dubai.
Originally Posted by duong View Post
yes you're right : at this moment he can't get any points in Rotterdam, but his points from Rotterdam could benefit him later when he loses his points first from Dubai then from Monte-Carlo.

I think that the OP should consider your notes to improve his draw
Noted, for Nadal, i think at most it will affect is the amount of points after Rotterdam, but i am assuming he could play Memphis and win, that will replace back Davis Cup points. As for Davydenko, i am assuming BEST CASE so it'll mean that he wins Monte-Carlo so Beijing points doesn't matter. Same goes for Djokovic, since it's BEST CASE assumption it means he wins Dubai and Monte-Carlo, so winning Rotterdam doesn't change anything.

Originally Posted by duong View Post
- Federer will not play Monte-Carlo but will play Estoril between Roma and Madrid
- Murray might also skip Monte-Carlo and start his clay season in Barcelona
- Davydenko will play Estoril
- Djokovic will play Belgrade
- the whole top-7 are engaged in Halle (Fed and Davydenko) or the Queens (all the others)
Noted. With the updated notes in the post, I'll assume that players can change tournaments they want to join anytime to create the "BEST CASE" scenario for my projections. Since anything less than the "BEST CASE" means it'll be easier for Roger to maintain at #1. As each tournament completes, I'll then update the points according to what the players participated in and we can see when we can actually 100% GUARANTEE Roger will reach #287 weeks.

Originally Posted by BlueSwan View Post
Amazing work! Now I don't have to do it myself! :-D

As I stated in the other thread, I now find it highly unrealistic that Roger doesn't beat the record.
yeah... thanks for keeping the rankings thread! it was great inspiration for me to come out with this thread.

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