Now that Roger has won the AOpen and has a
very good chance
to surpass Sampras 286 weeks at #1 record, I did suggested to have a thread to keep track of the progress, so I thought I might as well start the thread myself. Now, this is one major record where by you can actually predict in advance and count down to it, unlike other records. So the purpose of this track is to see how close is Federer going to break this record. I will continue to update this thread after every major tournaments until the record itself is broken.
This thread serves a different purpose from the rankings thread, the main purpose of this thread is to project the number of weeks Roger will be at #1, and the count continues until Roger reaches #287 weeks. While it may not be possible for the players in this thread to overtake, there could potentially be others who could overtake. We can't be 100% certain unless we calculate for the rest as well. But that task is too much so we will restrict to the top challengers. So as far as the projection goes, it will be based on 100% certainty that roger will be at #1
Important numbers to know:
Roger's record at #1 (as of 17th May 2010): 283 weeks
Sampras record at #1: 286 weeks
Assuming Roger does not lose the #1, date to surpass Sampras record: 14 Jun 2010 (287 weeks)
Roger is GUARANTEED at: 285 weeks at #1 (31 May 2010)
Roger's ranking points (as of 19th Apr 2010): 10030 (incl davis cup)
The 2 remaining contenders (and points on 17th May 2010):
Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE breaking 286 weeks at no.1: 920
and this means that A SEMI-FINALS IN ROLAND GARROS WILL GUARANTEE TYING THE RECORD!!!
Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE eliminating the players from overtaking before record #287 is reached:
Djokovic - 385
Nadal - 920
The following are the tournaments and drop off dates and points of all the contenders until 14 Jun 2010 (that's 1 week after Roland Garos).
Name (Total points to drop off until 14 Jun 2010)
[CODE]Federer (Total 4170)
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells 360
05-Apr-10 Miami 360
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo 90
03-May-10 Rome 360
17-May-10 Madrid 1000
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros 2000
Djokovic (Total 3330)
01-Mar-10 Dubai 500
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells 180
05-Apr-10 Miami 600
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo 600
03-May-10 Rome 600
10-May-10 Belgrade 250
17-May-10 Madrid 360
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros 90
14-Jun-10 Halle 150
Nadal (Total 4760)
15-Feb-10 Rotterdam 300
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells 1000
05-Apr-10 Miami 180
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo 1000
26-Apr-10 Barcelona 500
03-May-10 Rome 1000
17-May-10 Madrid 600
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros 180
Now we look at 2010 calendar and independantly assume the WORST CASE scenario for Roger vs each of his competitors BEST CASE scenario.
WORST CASE scenario is of cos, if federer takes a long holiday and doesn't turn up at any tournaments, hence getting 0 points.
BEST CASE scenario is to win all 4 compulsory ATP 1000 (Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Madrid), win Monte-Carlo + max out 3 other ATP 500, max out 2 other ATP 250 tournaments by 14 Jun 2010.
Now, looking at individual players on how they could achieve BEST CASE scenario for the ATP 500 and 250:
01-03-10 Defend Dubai (maximum 3 x ATP500)
10-05-10 Defend Belgrade
14-06-10 Win and improve on Halle (max out 2 x ATP250)
22-02-10 Win Memphis (misses due to injury)
01-03-10 Win Dubai
12-04-10 Win Morocco or Houston
26-04-10 Win Barcelona (max out 3 x ATP500)
10-05-10 win Belgrade or Estoril
24-05-10 win Nice
14-06-10 win Queens (max out 2 x ATP250)
The following is the points that can be improved on each week AFTER any points in 2009 dropped off.
Date Weeks at #1 Federer Djokovic Nadal
15-02-10 0 0 0
22-02-10 271 0 0
01-03-10 272 500 70
22-03-10 275 45 90 360
05-04-10 277 45 10 1,000
12-04-10 278 0 0
19-04-10 279 360 1,000
26-04-10 280 0 0
03-05-10 281 10 180 1,000
10-05-10 282 90 45 0
17-05-10 283 600 0 1,000
24-05-10 284 0 0
07-06-10 286 2,000 2,000
14-06-10 287 250 250
The total points in WORST CASE scenario will be
Date Weeks at #1 Federer Djokovic Nadal
01-02-10 268 11,350 8,310 7,670
15-02-10 270 11,350 8,310 7,370
22-02-10 271 11,350 8,310 7,370
01-03-10 272 11,350 8,310 7,440
22-03-10 275 11,035 8,220 6,800
05-04-10 277 10,765 7,630 6,980
12-04-10 278 10,765 7,630 6,980
19-04-10 279 10,690 7,390 6,980
26-04-10 280 10,690 7,390 6,480
03-05-10 281 10,340 6,970 6,480
10-05-10 282 10,430 6,765 6,480
17-05-10 283 10,030 6,405 6,880
24-05-10 284 10,030 6,405 6,880
07-06-10 286 8,030 8,315 8,700
14-06-10 287 8,030 8,415 8,950
ATP Ranking rules:
Grand Slam (2000/1200)
WTM 1000 (1000/600)
WTM 500 (500/300)
WTM 250 (250/150)
ATP 2010 Calendar:
The following are the ATP tournaments and the effective dates of the points earned:
Originally Posted by ATP
Q. What is the ranking structure and formula in 2010?
A. In 2010, any player who finished in the 2009 year-end Top 30 will be required to compete in four Grand Slam tournaments and eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. In addition, the Best 4 ATP World Tour 500 and Best 2 other events (ATP World Tour 250 and Challengers) will be counted towards a player's ranking. All direct acceptance players at the time of the entry deadline who do not play will receive a 0-pointer in their ranking. A player who is out of competition for 30 or more days, due to a verified injury, will not receive any penalties. For other players outside the Top 30, the ranking structure that applies, IF QUALIFIED, will be four Grand Slam tournaments and eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. The Best 6 with up to 4 ATP World Tour 500 results will also be counted towards the ranking. If a player is not a Direct Acceptance and did not play a Grand Slam or Masters 1000 tournament, he can substitute with ATP World Tour 250 and/or Challengers. The eight players who qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals will count an additional 19th tournament on their ranking.
08-Feb-10 ATP250 (Johannesburg, Zagreb, Santiago)
15-Feb-10 ATP250 (San Jose, Brasil) ATP500 (Rotterdam)
22-Feb-10 ATP250 (Marseille, Buenos Aires) ATP500 (Memphis)
01-Mar-10 ATP250 (Delray) ATP500 (Dubai, Mexico)
22-Mar-10 ATP1000 (Indian Wells)
05-Apr-10 ATP1000 (Miami)
12-Apr-10 ATP250 (Morocco, Houston)
19-Apr-10 ATP1000 (Monte-Carlo)
26-Apr-10 ATP500 (Barcelona)
03-May-10 ATP1000 (Rome)
10-May-10 ATP250 (Munich, Belgrade, Estoril)
17-May-10 ATP1000 (Madrid)
24-May-10 ATP250 (Dusseldorf, Nice)
07-Jun-10 Grand Slam (Roland Garros)
14-Jun-10 ATP250 (Halle, London)
P.S. If i made any mistakes in my calculations / stats above... do help to point out...
- Del Potro is ruled out all the way to Dubai, so i have removed his points from that period. But in theory he could still replace the tournaments missed with Casablanca/Houston, Barcelona and Munich/Serbia/Estoril
- Memphis is going to start and nadal looks like going to miss it... so points will be taken away from Nadal...
- Both Djokovic and Davydenko lost in the semis of Rotterdam... hence neither of them adds on any additional points
- Murray and Nadal misses Rotterdam and drops 500 and 300 points respectively... hence Nadal overtakes and become no.3...
- Virtually a non-event week, other than del potro dropping a few peanuts from Memphis... nobody else lost nor gain anything... so nothing much to update...
- Dubai went by without anything more than fluttering of a piece of grass - roger misses as usual, djokovic defended as expected...
- Finally an ATP1000 tournament..! although roger faltered early... losing over 300 points in rankings... all the others except for davydenko lost points too... nadal losing the most points (the 70 points earned from davis cup doesn't help much)... not only did he drop back to no.4... it also becomes impossible for nadal to overtake roger until after roland garros. also with the closest competitors djokovic and murray failing to take advantage of roger's early exit... it means that they missed out opportunity to earn several hundreds of ranking points... and it impossible for roger to be overtaken until madrid... putting roger's #1 record at 282...
- now... next up is Miami... if roger wins it... the #1 ranking is untouchable until roland garros (that'll be guarenteed #285 weeks at #1... where #286 week is when roland garros ends...) and he will have minimum of 10,225 points b4 roland garros... and djokovic can get at most 10,060 and murray 10,035...
30 Mar updates:
- decide to update the stats earlier since the 2 closest competitor (in terms of points) djokovic and murray lost their opening match in miami... as a result federer is just 1 week shy to equal sampras record... the next leap to 286 or 287 weeks will take quite a while since there is still over 1.8k points to clear the hurdle...
4 Apr updates:
- not surprisingly (at least to me...) nadal did not win miami... but at least he is the only one in top 6 who actually gained poitns from last year... the 2 closest competitor djokovic and murray lost even more points than roger... murray the defending champion lost a cool 990 points by exiting in his first game. this makes djokovic **firmly in the lead in the chances (mathematically) of overtaking roger after roland garros.
19 Apr updates:
- as expected... nadal cleans up monte carlo... murray and djokovic drops more points... while the gap between federer and murray/djokovic becomes greater... nadal closed the gap because federer simply skips monte carlo... while mathematically it's still djokovic, followed by murray and nadal as the closest... i would expect next tournament or two... nadal will be mathematically closer than murray to overtaking federer at #1 after RG...
22 Apr updates:
- decided to update this early since none of the candidates in this thread is playing barcelona... so it is as good as over...
4 May updates:
- another MAJOR screw up by roger... although the closest rival (mathematically) lost more points than roger... nadal has lived up to expectations and continued his dominance in the clay tournaments. now originally when the thread was started... it was INCONCEIVABLE then that he will gather less than several hundred points before RG... but apparently this is what he has been doing so far!! he has earned a paltry 145 points since AO... that is almost to the WORST CASE scenario possible...! things are not looking so good now. not only nadal have a good chance of spoiling the party... djokovic may also join in. the rest of the names in the list (murray, JMDP, davy) are almost out of contention and are likely to be out soon...
10 May updates:
- roger can't even win mickey mouse tournaments... it still remains good chance to lose #1 rankings after RG... with djokovic out of madrid means nadal mathematically becomes the favourite to spoil the party... and with his form and dominance on clay... it's likely he will do well... so it's mostly up to roger to maintain that #1 record...
- JMDP and davydenko mathematically are no longer possible to stop roger... hence i have removed them from this thread... and that's 2 less ppl to track!!
17 May updates:
- although roger failed to defend madrid... but at least he did so much better than the previous 3 tournaments and in madrid alone he scored almost 4 times the points he did in all the previous 4 tournaments added together since aopen. but all that points added together is still lesser than a GS win. while nadal doesn't disappoint at all and scored 3k points just in last 3 tournaments alone... and look likely to regain RG. but the gap was so big between roger and nadal that there is still decent chance of securing the record at RG.
- it helps that djokovic missed madrid... so he becomes unlikely to stop roger's record... although mathematically there is still a chance. murray on other hand has no more chances mathematically of stopping the record hence he has been removed from the record...
- also nadal is not playing nice so i have eliminated the points that he could have won from it...
18 May updates:
- added queens for nadal...
here's a greater details of breakdown of points (credits to ApproachShot for the link, and maintained by sdont
from Talk Tennis at Tennis Warehouse) :
** as mentioned that this thread is to countdown to the record by keeping track the maximum points of each players mathematically... hence djokovic is *still* top contender as far as maths go. however considering the form of players and the clay season is here... most tennis fans would consider nadal as the biggest threat..