Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:
- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
The reasons about the fysique are ofcourse nonsense. It's Nadal where we're talking about, he is mister fysique.
And I guess he won't lose to Murray, H2H is 7-2.
The second reason is a significant one though, but maybe he'll be only more eager because of this.