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post #75 of (permalink) Old 01-21-2009, 03:47 AM
country flag Mistaflava
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Re: Freezing Wednesday

Originally Posted by Mistaflava View Post
MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 14-7 (+$8814.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

What a complete disaster day yesterday with a) Golubev folding like a bitch after losing a set, b) Kindlmann showing why he is a true piece of shit...nice choke and c)Stakhovsky completely choking and sucking balls. Oh well it happens, my first losing day in tennis since last July. What can I say? Like I said before, you tail me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Wednesday, January 21

Australian Open - Round of 64

Marin Cilic 1.44 over Janko Tipsarevic ($5000 to win $2200)

I know a lot of you don't trust my selections as much today as you would have yesterday when I rolled into this place on a big time streak but bad days happen and it has to be expected on Days 1 and 2 of the Australian Open or any other major event. Some of these players are just not cutout for five set matches and it really showed yesterday with most of the players I wagered on being up 1 set or 2 sets before blowing the match completely. Shit happen. Marin Cilic is a guy who will hold my money quite a few times this season because he continues to rise in this sport and we are going to get some good prices on this guy as long as he remains underrated. This could be a good match guys because these two players played against each other in Chennai a few weeks ago in the quarter-finals and Cilic looked pretty good winning that match in three sets. This is a completely different story and I know Jankovic has experience and has played in matches like this before but Cilic should be able to outlast him. Cilic played well in his opening round match against Kevin Anderson despite failing to close the deal in three sets and losing a third set tiebreak but that doesn't concern me much. He won the Chennai tournament to kickoff his season and believe me when I say he is only going to get better as this tournament progresses. Tipsarevic has always been good for one or two wins in Grand Slam events like the Australian Open or the US Open which is why he beat Oscar Hernandez as expected in the first round but give me a damn break. OSCAR HERNANDEZ??? Even worse is that it took Tipsarevic five sets to win that match (Hernandez is horrendous) and there is no way he has enough steam left to play another full five sets against a guy like Cilic who is going to make him move, sweat and tire out before he can even blink. The only set he won against Cilic in Chennai was a complete writoff 6-0 set win and Cilic must have been dealing with some issues at that point. Tipsy did reach the Round of 32 last year in this tournament by beating Verdasco and Sirianni but Cilic did him one better by reaching the Round of 16 here last year and eventually losing to James Blake after beating Gonzalez, Melzer and Almagro in the opening rounds. This kid is not ranked #20 for nothing and he has tons of potential so losing a match like this would be a serious disaster for his career. Cilic has won 6 of his last 8 best of five set matches and he has made it quite obvious that he is going to be a threat for years to come in almost all the Grand Slam tournaments and this one should be no different. Tipsarevic is a fighter and it won't surprise me if he wins a set in this match but in the end he is too tired from all that wasted energy against Oscar Hernandez and with Cilic being well rested and not too tired from his opening round match, this should be a blowout from beginning to end. BACK CILIC WITH EVERYTHING YOU HAVE BEFORE THE LINE DROPS GUYS! LARGEST WAGER OF THE WEEK SO FAR!!!

Viktor Troicki 2.57 over Tommy Robredo ($1000 to win $1570)

Bark doggy bark...bite doggy bite. That's pretty much what I am going to cheering for tonight as I place a large wager on this underdog Troicki who I believe has what it takes to win this match. Okay I will be sleeping and won't see the actual match but when I wakeup in the morning I fully expect some cash in my account. If Troicki can play the way he was playing last summer on hardcourts then he is going to bother Robredo and win this match straight up. You can take him on the spread if you don't trust his youth (he is 22 years old) but I am telling you right now that once this tournament is all said and done he is going to be ranked higher than he has ever been ranked and that should take come pressure off the kid heading into a match against a very seasoned veteran, let alone the #22 player in the world Tommy Robredo. Some of you will hesitate to take Troicki in this match because you saw Robredo destroy the #68 ranked player in the world Bobby Reynolds in straight sets (round one action two days ago) but beating an American in Australia doesn't mean jack and Robredo is virtually untested. He got destroyed by Ancic in the second round of the Sydney tournament and that just goes to show that when challenged to move around and defend serves, Robredo is going to struggle here. Troicki won a large wager for me last week when he beat Juan Monaco in the second round of the Auckland tournament and I am asking him to do the same here. I think this kid proved he has what it takes to win big matches like this when he beat Kohlschreiber at the US Open last summer and when he followed that up with a win over Tsonga in the ATP Tokyo event a few weeks later. For those of you who didn't know, Troicki loves the hardcourts having reached the final of the ATP Washington tournament right before the US Open (beat Andy Roddick along the way) and there is no doubt he can ball with just about anyone. The question right now is...can Troicki handle a five set match against a very good player who is somewhat losing steam on his career? I think so. Troicki is only 4-5 lifetime in best of five set matches and he does lack the experience but I think he is ready to take that next step. His five set match wins are against Lapentti, Kohlschreiber, Ball and most recently in the first round of this tournament, Alberto Martin. His win over Kohlschreiber at the US Open was a validation and a confidence booster that he can win matches like this because Kohli was ranked #26 at the time and this is virtually the same type of match. Tommy is tough to beat in long matches, having won 8 of his last 11 best of five set matches but I don't like the matchup against Troicki. It will take everything the young Serb has to outlast Robredo in this match but his big serve should have Robredo moving and getting tired. If he keeps his head straight he can win this match and I believe 2009 is the year that Tommy Robredo really takes a few steps back in the tennis world.

Robin Soderling 1.68 over Marcos Baghdatis ($2000 to win $1360)

Nobody ever wants to bet against Marcos Baghdatis because this guy fights like nobody and always gives you a chance on a wager whether he is up down by two sets or down by two breaks in a set. Having said that, when you do go against him you will almost get some kind of good price and this is all about picking your spots and making things happen. I WAS GOING TO MAKE THIS MY LARGEST WAGER OF THE DAY but held off. I love Soderling though and one of the big reasons for that is the fact that Soderling has always owned Baggy and I don't see things changing in this match. Since the 2006 season began, these players have played against each other four times and Soderling has come out on top in 3 of those matches. He beat Baghdatis in New Haven (2006) on a hardcourt surface, he beat Baghdatis in Doha (2007) on a hardcourt surface and he beat Baghdatis in Rotterdam (2008) on an indoor hard surface. His only loss against the wild man from Cyprus was in Halle (2007) on a grass surface where Baghdatis definitely has the edge. Well this is yet another hardcourt meeting between these two and Soderling definitely looks like he is going to be the stronger player here. Baghdatis has a huge fan backing in Australia and that could play a part in this match going to five sets but Sodo looks like he is in fine form right now and his only losses this season have been to Stepanek and Del Potro (two matches it was obvious he did not give his all trying to save it for the Australian Open). He was a bit shaky against Robert Kendrick in the opening round two days ago but he recovered to sweep the last three sets and win the match. Baghdatis on the other hand won his first round match against Julien Benneteau in straight sets but I don't trust his form right now and please do not use performances at Kooyong as anything more than just going through the motions for some of these players which is why he beat Cilic and Ljubicic there. I don't think Baghdatis' back is any better than it was when he was forced to retire from two late seasonn tournaments in 2008 and if you can't move around against Soderling you are not going to beat this guy. Okay so history wise, Soderling does not do all that well in best of five set matches while Baghdatis is pretty much a king of these things but that will not make a difference for me tonight. We are no doubt going to see one heck of a battle but Soderling is going to surprise a lot of people and for the first time ever is going to make it past the second round of the Australian Open. He has never been beyond that point and I don't know what his deal is with Australia but now more than ever would be a great time to get things back on track and reach his first ever third round at the Australian Open. Do you all remember the magic of Baghdatis at the Aussie Open in both 2005 and 2006? I do and it was great because I bet on him several times and won some big time tennis money but now is the time to go against him. He is not as fit as he was back then and his back is becoming a real problem in matches that last long, something he used to have no problems with. Baghdatis lost his magic here in 2007 when he lost to Monfils in the second round and again in 2008 when he lost in the third round against hometown favorite Lleyton Hewitt. I wanted to bet HUGE on this match but that won't fly until the next round. BYE BYE BAGHDATIS!

Troicki is a piece of shit and I should have seen this coming in a Slam event where Robredo is tough to beat. Bad bad wager but it was too late to turn around.

SODERLING IS GOING TO BEAT BAGHDATIS...ADDING $1000 to win $680 wager to what I already have on Soderling.

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