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post #50 of (permalink) Old 01-13-2009, 05:04 AM
country flag Mistaflava
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Re: Trivial Tuesday

Originally Posted by Mistaflava View Post
MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 1-1 (+$232.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

I did not have much time to bet on tennis last season but I made some crazy money when I did and for the first time in for years I will try to handicap a full tennis season when actually possible. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Tuesday, January 13

ATP Auckland - Round of 32

Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.42 over Dominik Hrbaty ($2000 to win $840)

Why the hell not is my question? I was wrong about Verdasco in the Brisbane final on the weekend and decided to take a days off as I went 3-1 ATS in the NFL PLAYOFFS and am now 6-2 ATS in the NFL Playoffs (all posted at another forum). Kohli is the better player in the better form with the better chance of winning this match which is why I am going quite large on this. I would bet on Hbraty if this were late on in the season but he is out of form right now and despite being 3-1 lifetime versus the German, I just cannot trust him coming off vacation time. Hrbaty lost 6-2 6-3 in the 2007 meeting between these two here in Auckland and he has done nothing to show me this season that he is going to be any different. Hrbaty does have those three wins over Kohli but the German is a much better player now as two of those losses came when he was ranked outside the TOP 100 and the other came when he was ranked #37. I like betting on guys who have shown to be in form or at least shown that they can compete and Kohli showed me two wins in Doha last week which is good enough despite his loss to Federer in the quarter-finals. Hrbaty on the other hand did beat Safin, Kiefer and Blake in the Hopman Cup but those were practice matches for those players and had those wins meant anything, don't you think the odds would be a bit different here? This is a tournament Hrbaty used to own but he has failed to advance past the 2nd Round the last three years. Kolhschreiber on the other hand loves this place, has always played well here and is 15-3 lifetime at Auckland having won here in 2008 with wins over a bunch of good players. My money is on the defending champion over the guy who played well in exhibition matches.

Yen-Hsun Lu 2.26 over Steve Darcis ($4200 to win $5292)

Definitely no questions asked here this is one of my favorite wagers in a long time. I see a lot of people taking Darcis in this match but they give no reasoning whatsoever and I think Lu is going to whip this clown silly. Both players are young and both players have played challengers and ATP events over the last 12 months. They are both the kind of player that is never really going to be all that good but that will do enough to win matches and make us some cash. Darcis has only 26 wins over the last 12 months and that's all events combined while Lu (despite playing in weaker events) has double the amount of wins Darcis has with 56 wins. These two players have never met each other before which makes the two styles clashing even more interesting. Darcis has one match under his belt in 2009 and that was a blowout loss to the returning and #865 ranked Taylor Dent in Brisbane last week. Other than that, Darcis had not played a match since October in Lyon and I don't trust his form right now. Lu on the other hand hurt himself in the Hopman Cup last week but I don't think it was all that bad and I don't see it being a problem here because he did battle against both Gilles Simon and Marat Safin, despite losing both matches. I wouldn't call either of these players experts on hardcourt but please look at it this way. Darcis has played 9 matches on hardcourts the last 12 months, Lu has played 68 matches. However, should this reach a tiebreak, Lu is 6-1 the last 12 months in hardcourt tiebreakers while Darcis is only 2-2. With the odds this way I assume most people are going to blindly take Darcis which is a mistake because he is 3-7 in his last 10 hardcourt matches while Lu has won 49 of his 68 matches on hardcourts in the last 12 months. Guys don't waste your time with Darcis, Lu is much better on this surface and he is looking for a win after last week's fiasco.

Bobby Reynolds 1.37 over Oscar Hernandez ($6200 to win $2294)

Before you go asking how I can bet so much in one tennis day, please understand that almost all my wagers are done through investors who take a cut of the winnings and pay me to pick selections for them exclusively. I have one guy who wants to drop a 5k bomb and another who wants to wager close to 10k on any given match depending on how much I like the play. The only way Bobby Reynolds can lose this match is if he throws the match because Oscar Hernandes sucks ass on hardcourts and he should never have a chance in this match. Overall as a tennis player I have to say Hernandez has the edge but that is counting all tennis surfaces and that doesn't really matter here because we are on hardcourts and the American has the edge. Hernandez has already played quite a few matches this season but that doesn't mean he has played well. He had a good run against Vliegen in the opening round of Doha but the Belgian was completely asleep and I wouldn't put too much into it. He then entered the qualies for this tournament and beat guys ranked 351, 665 and 253 to reach the main draw of the tournament. That in no way shape or form prepares him for this event against a played ranked #68 in the world. Reynolds is not the most reliable player to bet on but he is much better than Hernandez on this surface and he does already have some experience this season under his belt. He won all three qualifying matches in Brisbane before losing in the first round of the main draw and now he also beat three opponents in the qualies of this tournament to advance to the main draw. Since this time last season, Reynolds has 44 wins (ATP and Challenger) on hardcourt surfaces while Oscar Hernandez has played on 9 matches on this stuff and won only 4 of those matches. Huge wager for me on Reynolds here who should have no problems despite his lack if natural tennis skills.

Marc Gicquel 1.66 over Agustin Calleri($1600 to win $1056)

This is actually some good comedy those who are backing Calleri in this match. First of all it's way too early to give this clown a shot in the dark at anything and to back him as an underdog is pretty much like throwing some money away. I will accept all wagers on Paypal for this match and triple your earnings if he wins. NO CHANCE IN HELL CALLERI WINS THIS MATCH, MARK MY WORDS. Gicquel has screwed me many times over the years but he is definitely play here and I like what he has shown in this type of match in the past. This is the first ever meeting between these two 30+ year old veterans who have played in more tournaments than any of us can remember and I can't wait to see the result. Calleri needs to retire really soon and I don't see him winning a match until maybe some of the South American tournaments coming up in the next few weeks. CALLERI HAS NOT WON A TENNIS MATCH SINCE THE US OPEN IN AUGUST WHERE HE BEAT THE #892 RANKED PLAYER IN THE WORLD. He has lost six straight matches and has not beat a TOP 100 player on any surface since the month of July 2008 and that's just pathetic. Gicquel is not much better but he is better. Some may see Gicquel as just another loser like Calleri but the frenchman has lost his last five matches but those matches were against Gasquet, Stepanek, Tsonga, Kohlschreiber and some qualifier in the September Metz tournament. A lot of people are going to give Calleri a chance in this match but he is out of form, he is not the same player as two seasons ago when he reached the Semi-Final of this tournament and he is going down in flames. Gicquel needs this win more than Calleri and he will get it.

Victor Hanescu 1.77 over Juan Monaco ($8000 to win $6868)


Alright so this is my wager of the night and my largest investor has asked for a $10k wager tonight but this is not possible. I don't feel comfortable enough to drop such a wager just now before the Australian Open. So here we are and the odds are good. I really like Hanescu in this one and this is going to make or break my day. This is only the second lifetime meeting between these two and believe it or not Hanescu came out on top in April of 2006 on clay courts in Houston. I don't know about you guys but I really like the bombs of Hanescu in this match over the agility of Monaco who probably has no interest whatsoever in winning this match here. Hanescu is in better shape right now than he has been most of his career and the proof of that was the way he played last week in Doha. The big Romanian was good enough to beat Youzhny and Troicki in the opening rounds (two players ranked higher than him in the ATP Rankings) and the only reason he didn't win Doha was because he had to play Andy Roddick in the quarter-finals (Hanescu doesn't normally play all that well against guys who have huge serves hence the loss in that match). Monaco on the other hand is only in Auckland this week to have sex with those little whores they showed on the highlights show last night and other than that this is his very first match of 2009 and I don't see him being in form at all. He is the kind of guy I would start wagering on in big tournaments like the Australian Open in a few weeks. The last time we saw Monaco was in TMS Paris where he went down in flames against Gael Monfils and he has not played competitive tennis since, probably having vacationed back home and banged as many chicks as possible. I know Monaco has won his first round matches the last two years in this tournament but my general feeling is that he has fallen off since those two years and playing against a #456 ranked Daniel King-Turner (2007 tournament) and #49 ranked but quickly aging Thomas Johansson (2008 tournament) is nothing like playing Hanescu tonight. This is Hanescu's first time ever playing in this tournament and I trust his form. He was playing in a Challenger even as late as November where he reached the Final and lost to Fabrice Santoro and he was also in great form in the October St Petersburg ATP tournament where he reached the Semi-Finals but lost to Golubev in that match. I know I am taking a huge risk with this bet but the odds are very good and I feel Hanescu has a serious edge in this match. LETS CASH THIS BITCH!

Some huge wagers tonight, trying to keep the investors happy and hopefully you guys can make some cash too. Keep in mind to play your own units or money on this at your own risk.

My investors are happy, I am happy but I have large wager to go to make or break my night here. LETS GO HANESCU, SHOW ME THE FUCKIN MONEY!

4-0 with pending

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