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post #10 of (permalink) Old 07-25-2008, 12:33 AM
country flag jayjay
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Re: betting-job

Originally Posted by kokot View Post
back to value,how many of you are betting without odds?i mean,look at the matchup on oop,and choose the player,then look at the odds?i do it maximum 20% of the time but mostly,i check the odds.
I make my picks, I check the prices and if I'm happy with them I play them.

There are many punters out there, though, who are simply tempted by a big price. And that's the reason books will never go broke because there are alot of people out there chasing the big win.

this makes the conclussion about last night fedex-simon.if you wouldnt see that 38 odd on simon would you choose him?i fuck wouldnt even touch lets look from the other way,asume u didnt see the odd on u choose simon,and then look at the odds and fedex for some reason would have odd 1.6.would you still take simon at 2.4odd?????fucking give me break!so plz dont tell me that simon was value.didnt see that game have admit but to take player just because idiotic odds,it is not called value,but not smart betting,put it nicely.another example levine.would u choose him knowing that he would be at odd 2.4?surely i wouldnt.
I can't speak for Grinder or anyone who did back Simon, but I imagine they didn't back Simon because they were sure of a win, but because they thought there was trade value there and had some tangible reasons as to why Simon might have troubled Federer and in turn possibly shock him.

Simply for the fact it was Federer's first match since Wimbledon and Simon was coming in off the back of a tournament win alone made the match at least a little tricky for Federer. Not that I thought he would lose, I absolutely didn't, but you can see what was there for those who thought the price was too high considering the factors.

You seem to be thinking that "value" means "dog". It doesn't. If in your example Federer had been 1.60, then he would have been value. As if you were pricing up the match yourself you would surely never make Federer 1.60.

to the betting as a job.i know for example at least 5 people in my area who are succsefull in that.but not in is capping purely 2.division german,another 1st point is that they dont touch anything else and just follow one league.and yes they had bad times,but overall they made steady 38% per many of us can say that?but of course they dont play for peanuts.
Any professional keys in on their particular areas of expertise. That is obvious. I did it for a few years and built a healthy balance and then lost sight of what I was doing. Treating it as a "business" had become boring for me, and I allowed the gambling aspect to override the money aspect. That meant hefty bets on markets I was still learning and when the losses came, I went back to what I knew at a heavier level than before to recoup (chase), and when it didn't go my way - I was right back at the start.

This is purely ill-discipline and nothing else.

If you know your particular sports, if you do your homework, if you have a set of rules and don't break them and you play when opportunity arises and not out of a daily habit/need to gamble - then it is very possible to make a steady/decent living out of this industry.

However, the human mind is almost conditioned to be reckless and that's where alot of people end up falling by the way side. No one should be fooled into thinking it's remotely easy. It takes alot of mistakes to learn how to do things the right way, and even then it takes greater discipline to continually toe that line.
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