I really like it.
Atlanta-Chicago 'UNDER' 9 +105
The weather is so-so at Wrigley this afternoon so I don't know that it will make a huge difference here. For starters, Home Plate Umpire Mark Wegner has been an under guy all season with 6 of his 9 games hitting the UNDER mark and I have no problem taking him to call this one under as well. All his OVER games have been when the total is at 8 or lower while any total at 8.5 or higher has gone 5-0 on the UNDER. Wegner doesn't always makes things easy for guys but it seems like he makes key third strike calls when he has to and when big innings are on the line. On the mound today for the Cubbies is Carlos Zambrano who has not pitched all that well but I think this is a good spot for him to put in one of his best efforts all season. He is coming off a very strong road start against the Dodgers where he allowed only 2 ER's in 7.2 innings of work while striking out 8 batters. I think that's just the kind of outing he needed to kick start his month of June and I really think he can shut down this Atlanta lineup today...enough to stay UNDER the total. On the flip side of things Ken Davies is on the mound for the Braves and let me tell you that Davies has pitched really well in his last two road starts. In those two starts he pitched 11.2 innings of work, allowing only 3 ER's and averaging only about 14 pitches per inning which is pretty good. What you have to understand about Wrigley, because this does make a difference here, is that when the wind is blowing IN FROM CENTER, almost all the games go OVER because pitchers have problems controlling the location of their pitches. However, the last time I checked this afternoon, that wind was coming in from RIGHT TO LEFT at 7mph at Wrigley which would indicate that pitchers are going to have an easier time locating pitches and getting the calls they want from an UNDER ump in Wegner. When the wind comes in from that direction this season, the UNDER is 7-2 on the year and an average of only 7.25 runs are scored per game. Also, when the wind blows in this direction this season, hitters are hitting only .237 (thats nine games combined) compared to .271 they hit when the wind is coming in from center field or other directions. Don't underestimate the power of wind here because on one side you have a Cubs team that is batting only .229 in their last 10 games and on the other side you have a Braves team that has scored more than 4 runs in a road game only 4 of their last 13 road games which is not good news for these guys. The UNDER is also 8-2 in the Cubs last 10 games that follow a day off and although Zambrano has been the king of OVER betting since the season started, I think he is about to turn a new corner and pitch one of his best home games this season on the heels of that outing against the Dodgers. Zambrano is 9-4 in 20 career starts in the month of June and for some reason some of his best stuff has come in daytime games like this one. Remember he has that one bad inning every game so don't panic if the Braves get a few early runs because this baby is not touching the OVER borders. LETS GO PITCHERS!