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post #1 of (permalink) Old 05-26-2007, 03:53 PM Thread Starter
country flag Mistaflava
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MLB Saturday

Here is my first selection...


Okay so anyone who has bet on the Cincinnati Reds the last three nights knows how much of a mistake it is to bet on teams in this range of price but I think this can be considered a bit different. The Yankees are still the Yankees. The Yankees still have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's really only a matter of finding the right spots for them to get their shit together. Well I think is a great spot because their one and only ace right now is on the mound and seeing how they are not winning without him, this is their only chance to win games. Before they even post the lineups for this game I just want to advise you guys that Johnny Damon is not playing and Melky Cabrera is most likely taking his spot in the lineup. I am telling you guys that because that's a good thing and that should actually help the Yankees win. Damon is batting .163 lifetime in 49 career at bats versus Kelvim Escobar so like I said before, the fact that he is out of the lineup is a benefit and it forces the Yankees to switch things around. Cabrera has only faced Escobar twice and gone 0 for 2 but he is hitting .318 lifetime versus the Angels and might provide a small spark for these guys. Speaking of Escobar, he has been virtually unhittable as of late but his numbers at Yankee Stadium are dreadful. Escobar has started 9 times in Yankee Stadium, has a record of 3-4 here with an ERA of 6.16 and a WHIP of 1.74. The Yankees are hitting .293 at home versus right handed pitchers this season so this is the best possible spot to take them. The Angels on the other hand are facing the temporary ace for the Yankees...Chien-Ming Wang. The Taipei import struggled in his only start against the Angels but he's a much better pitcher now and the Yankees have won three of his last four starts. The Angels are hitting only .242 on the road versus right handed pitchers so this is a great spot to fade them. I think one of the only reasons Escobar's numbers are that good, this early on in the season is because he has made 6 of his 8 starts at home this season and Kelvim has always traditionally been a much better home pitcher than he has on the road. Escobar has also had the pleasure of facing several American League Central and West teams but when asked to face AL East teams like the Yankees, the Angels are 1-5 in his last six starts versus this division...the heavy hitting division. Wang on the other hand has been one of the better 'weekend' pitchers in baseball as the Yankees have won something like 9 of their last 10 games when he starts on a Saturday (could be pure coincidence). What I like most about Wang's numbers however is that he has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last few years when it comes to helping his team bounce back from a bad loss. I'll explain a bit more about that below. Home Plate Umpire Jeff Nelson has always been a big time homer so it's going to help to have him calling balls and strikes against a guy like Chan who can be wild at times. Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu and Robinson Cano all have excellent career numbers against Escobar and I think this is going to be a big afternoon for the Bronx Bombers. Escobar is not in the right spot to make a good start and I think with this kind of price, I just can't go any other way but the Yankee way. I'm feeling very green today but I don't know what to do so it's up to the Yankees to cut my damn lawn, eat my damn veggies and show me some CASH FUCKIN MONEY DOLLA DOLLA BILLS YALL!

Stat of the Game: The Yankees are 18-3 in Chien-Ming Wang's last 21 starts following a game where the team allows 5 runs or more. That makes him one of the best bounce back starters in MLB over the last few years.

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