What I'm saying is that Fed is still favourite for the race. If he fails to reach the finals of RG then Nadal will have serious and big chances.
This depends on how Nadal does, though.
If Federer fails to reach the RG finals but wins Wimbledon and Nadal the reverse, then anything can happen in the hardcourt season. No one predicted that Federer would flunk the IW/M run so poorly, and this can happen to Nadal, it can happen to Federer, or both, in the summer swing. It is really not possible to say anything right now.