Right. In this thread I’ll regularly update Rogers ranking points and compare them with his nearest rival (Nadal for the foreseeable future), to assess whether his #1 ranking is in jeopardy.
Currently the score is:
Roger Federer: 7515 points
Rafael Nadal: 5225 points
This gives Federer a solid 2290 point lead. However, Nadal has infact so far scored more points than Federer in 2007.
Rogers points scored in 2007:
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 1000
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 300
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R64: 5
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 75
TMS Monte Carlo (clay) FINALIST: 350
TMS Rome (clay) R16: 75
TMS Hamburg (clay) WINNER: 500
These are the points that Roger has to defend for the remainder of the year:
Roland Garros (clay) FINALIST: 700
Halle (grass) WINNER: 225
Wimbledon (grass) WINNER: 1000
TMS Toronto (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Cincinnatti (hard) R32: 35
US Open (hard) WINNER: 1000
Tokyo (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
TMS Madrid (indoor carpet) WINNER: 500
Basel (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
Tennis Masters Cup (indoor hard) WINNER: 750
Where does that leave Roger in the fight to keep the #1 ranking?
Well, here are the stats for 2007 alone:
Rogers total for 2007: 2255 points
Nadals total for 2007: 2675 points
Roger started the year out in peak form and swept the competition away in the Australian Open. However, since then his form has been shaky. He lost a lot of points by going out early in Indian Wells and Miami – two TMS tournaments that he usually wins. This has put Nadal ahead for the year by 420 points.
But can Nadal hang on to the lead to take the #1 spot away from Roger before the end of the year? If Roger can avoid a bad result at RG, he should still have all the cards on his hands with the grass, fast US hardcourt season and indoor seasons coming up. However, Nadal will do better after wimbledon than he did last year, especially seeing as he is planning to play more clay tournaments in the summer.
Speaking purely hypothetically, Federer could lose his ranking as early as after Wimbledon. However that would require Federer to lose first round in RG, Halle and Wimbledon, as well as Nadal winning RG, Queens and Wimbledon.
I believe the most realistic scenario is that Federer will retain the #1 ranking throughout the year, but that it's gonna be much much closer than last year.
The fact that Rafa Nadal has more points so far in 2007 is reason for concern
However with FED`s emphatic Hamburg victory it looks like he`s in good shape for the fight
This year I expect a close race for #1 coming down to TMC Shanghai