That's my concern for points coming from Wales, and I'm not a fan of Jones or O'Gara either, they both annoy the hell out of me.
Ireland have points in them, but you wonder whether that will come to fruition in the 1st 6 Nations match away from home. As you say, they may well play their boring territory based game instead of being a little more creative and adventurous.
Wales due to injuries/suspensions, have gone for a solid based backline. No Williams, Thomas and Henson surely reduces their ability to put some points up. With Jones and Hook in the side, they will possibly look for territory too, and you can imagine the game ending up 20-17, 19-16 either way, something like that.
Wales should win the battle upfront, limiting the opportunity for the Irish backs to cut loose, and enabling Wales to play a territorial game if that's what they wish. You have to think that at home 1st match up, they are not going to get rolled over or make it easy for the Irish even with the absences.
At the moment, I'm siding with the under 44, and a saver on 44-46.