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post #1 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 02:28 AM Thread Starter
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AFL - Brownlow Medal

the 22 rounds just finished.. Brownlow medal is in about 3 weeks

iI opened this thread not to discuss who is favorite to win .. but also for us to estimate Round by Round votes for the favorites

there is also Top 3 .. and Top 5 Odds with certain Bookies.. which sometimes represent value .. feel free to discuss them here too

in the last couple of days before .. more odds are available for the Top player at each Club.. we can discuss this here as well

i consider Brownlow Medal one of the most exciting events in the AFL Calender and i am sure that all of you share this with me.

GL All
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post #2 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 04:24 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Power, Black or Sherman most votes for the Lions. I'm edging Sherman.

To win, I am hoping West finally gets one he deserved. West will come a place if he doesn't win.

I'm liking Goodes and Goodwin's chances too. Wouldn't surprise me if Goodes wins with another tied count.
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post #3 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 06:17 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi
Power, Black or Sherman most votes for the Lions. I'm edging Sherman.
J. Brown pulled enough votes in R2 and from R7 -R10 to over take them all. he is my tip for BL highest vote getter.
B. Lions lost most of the games after that with big margins . so they will hardly get any votes
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post #4 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 07:30 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

I did full re-count on All Brisbane lions games ..
J. Brown should get 2 votes in round 2 and 3 -3 -3 - 1 from R7 -R10 estimate total 12
Black 3 votes in R2 ..2 votes in R7 , 2 votes in R9 .. 1 vote R12 .. 2 votes 13.. 1vote R20 estimate total 11
as you see most 1 votes can go to other players

very close call ..
i referenced also my votes to Heraldsun player of the year and converted their sytsem of 5-4-3-2-1 into 3-2-1 ..
before conversion S. Black 31 .. J . Brown 26 .. but some of Black's votes are two and ones ..and when converted they became zeros.
i ended up after conversion .. with J. Brown 12 .. Black 13

odds are released at Tab .. Black at 1.9 .. Brown at 2.5 .. Luke power at 4.5
since i am not 100% convinced on Black and there is value at Brown.. might try low stake at Brown
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post #5 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:53 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi
Power, Black or Sherman most votes for the Lions. I'm edging Sherman.

To win, I am hoping West finally gets one he deserved. West will come a place if he doesn't win.

I'm liking Goodes and Goodwin's chances too. Wouldn't surprise me if Goodes wins with another tied count.
Agree on West,feel like his time is up if not he will definetely place top 3 imo!!Goodes chances woudve done him good with no one shining in the Swans line up apart from big bad bustling Barry imo!!

Brownlow Medal Prediction-Scott West/Goodes/Kerr* (* uneligble to win due to suspension ) Nick Rievolt is worth a shot,love the way he plays
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post #6 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-06-2006, 09:23 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Adam Goodes is easily the best player in the AFL
post #7 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 06:32 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

BG Bias
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post #8 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 06:33 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

BossBoss

I'm a Lions man!

Power or Sherman for me.
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post #9 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 06:41 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi
BG Bias

Can't really argue with it though

He is the toughest matchup for any coach in the AFL
post #10 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 07:22 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Goodes is a fantastic player, yes, I will agree with it.

He is hard to match up on, yes, I will agree with it too.

But easily the best player in the AFL at the moment? I will see how he plays in the finals before I make that assessment. If he carries his form into the finals and steps up when Sydney need him most, I will agree with you.
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post #11 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 11:42 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Here are the plays I've already put in. Catch the odds early before they get betted down.

Judd H2H (Cousins) $700@1.55
C.Cornes H2H (K.Cornes) $300@1.85
Bell (Freo) $300@2.50
N.Thompson (Kang) $300@2.10
Dal Santo (Stk) $200@2.10
J.Brown (Bris) $200@2.50
Richardson (Rich) $100@3.25
D.Pearce Group A $200@3.20

Brownlow medal betting is what I wait for each year. I'm pretty meticulous with my mock voting and these are athe plays I feel most confident with. There are a few other bets I want to make but I already have outlayed quite a bit and can't really afford it. (I think the J.Bowden h2h@1.50 and Lucas@1.45 are pretty solid bets. I would've multied them but for some reason they haven't allowed that option).

When I found out that parlaying h2h options were not allowed I must admit I was quite annoyed, since I can hardly see how they contradict each other. I think unlike previous years, this year I think the tab has been the most off. I must admit I almost blown my wad when I saw some of the odds they put out on Tuesday. They had Richo at $11 and the top 3 plays I posted above has been betted down quite significantly.
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post #12 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 11:45 AM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

I'll just post my mock leaderboard for those that may be interested. A lot has been taken into account, such as those who have polled well in the past. I've only betted those where I feel there is a significant lead or supply great value.

Adelaide 96

19 – Goodwin
16 – Edwards
12 – McLeod
9 – Johncock
8 – Ricciuto
7 – Burton
5 – Mattner, Hentschel, Bassett, Thompson
2 – Porplyzia
1 – Bode, Reilly, Doughty, McGregor

Brisbane 50

11 – J.Brown
9 – Black, Power
5 – Voss
4 – Bradshaw, Akermanis
3 – Stiller, Sherman
2 – Charman

Carlton 32

8 – Fevola
7 – Scotland
3 – Waite, Whitnall, Stevens, Walker
2 – Lappin
1 – Bentick, Murphy, Thornton

Collingwood 78

11 – Buckley, Ben Johnson
10 – Swan
9 – Didak
8 – Fraser
6 – A.Rocca, Licuria
5 – Burns
3 – Tarrant
2 – Holland, L.Davis, R.Shaw, T.Cloke
1 – H.Shaw

Essendon 30

8 – Lucas
5 – Hird
3 – Lloyd, J.Johnson, Hille, Fletcher
2 – Stanton
1 – Watson, Lovett, McPhee

Fremantle 83

16 – Bell
12 – Pavlich
10 – J.Carr
6 – McManus, Crowley
5 – Peake
4 – Hasleby, Black, Farmer
3 – Mundy, M.Johnson, Schammer
2 – Longmuir, Sandilands, McPharlin
1 – R.Murphy

Geelong 64

11 – Ablett
10 – Chapman
9 – Bartel
8 – Corey
3 – Ling, Mooney, Enright, Scarlett, Rooke
2 – Kingsley, Kelly, Ottens, S.Johnson
1 – Milburn, King, Hunt

Hawthorn 51

11 – Mitchell
10 – Hodge
9 – Crawford
6 – Franklin
4 – Williams
3 – Croad, Birchall
2 – Everitt, Clarke
1 – Guerra

Kangaroos 45

10 – N.Thompson
8 – B.Harvey
6 – Harris
5 – Grant
4 – C.Jones
3 – Simpson, Wells
2 – Sinclair, Petrie, S.Rocca

Melbourne 76

13 – McLean
12 – Bruce
10 – Johnstone
9 – McDonald
7 – Yze, Davey
5 – Neitz
3 – Pickett, Robertson, Ward
2 – Green, Whelan

P.Adelaide 55

13 – C.Cornes
12 – S.Burgoyne
9 – Lade, Pearce
4 – K.Cornes
3 – Salopek, Surgan
1 – Mahoney, Ebert

Richmond 66

10 – Richardson
8 – J.Bowden, Simmonds
6 – Coughlan, Pettifer
5 – P.Bowden
4 – Hyde, Tuck
3 – Polo, Krakouer, Foley, K.Johnson, Raines

St Kilda 76

17 – Dal Santo
14 – Riewoldt
9 – Hayes, Harvey
5 – Gehrig
4 – Maguire, Goddard
3 – Ball, Gram, Montagna
2 – Blake, S.Fisher
1 – Baker

Sydney 87

23 – Goodes
13 – J.Bolton
12 – O’Keefe
11 – Hall
8 – Kirk
7 – Buchanan
4 – Schneider
2 – O’Loughlin, Ablett, Fosdike
1 – Barry, Kennelly, Jolly

West Coast 94

23 – Judd
18 – Kerr
13 – Cousins
9 – Cox
6 – Hunter
5 – Lynch
4 – Embley, Wirrpanda
3 – R.Jones
2 – Fletcher, Stenglein, Chick, Braun
1 – LeCras

Bulldogs 73

19 – B.Johnson
18 – West
9 – Cooney
4 – Gilbee
3 – Eagleton, Murphy, Grant, Giansiricusa, Griffen, Ray, Cross
1 – Hahn, Boyd


Overall Leaders 1056 (Rd 22)

23 – Judd, Goodes
19 – Goodwin, B.Johnson
18 – Kerr, West
17 – Dal Santo
16 – Bell, Edwards
14 – Riewoldt
13 – J.Bolton, McLean, C.Cornes, Cousins
12 – Bruce, McLeod, S.Burgoyne, Pavlich, O’Keefe
11 – J.Brown, Ablett, Hall, Buckley, McDonald, Ben Johnson


Team Totals

Adelaide 96
West Coast 94
Sydney 87
Fremantle 77
St Kilda 76
Melbourne 76
Bulldogs 73
Collingwood 72
----------------
Richmond 66
Geelong 64
P.Adelaide 55
Hawthorn 51
Brisbane 50
Kangaroos 45
Carlton 32
Essendon 30
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post #13 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 01:24 PM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Interesting read mate, gl with your plays there

Brownlow is definitely not something I will be betting on - most time you and the umpires have completely different views on how certain players fared during games.
post #14 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 03:50 PM
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

Very interesting Wis,Gary Ablett looks real good to top Cats best n fairest!!Awesome yr,infact his best i believe,TAB has good option @ 3.35 for Gary most Brownlow votes !!
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post #15 of 38 (permalink) Old 09-17-2006, 09:20 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL - Brownlow Medal

my offical plays (already locked in)

2 units on Goodes to win at 2.5 (centerbet)
2 units on Thompson (Top Kang) at 2.3 (centerbet)
1 unit at Fevola (Top Blue) at 1.9 (centerbet)

these i am really comfortble with... might add some more options to TOP UP these ones a on the Brownlow day .. (depending on liquidilty)
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