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post #1 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-04-2006, 10:31 AM
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Cool AFL Finals - Week 1

Obviously really early to start a thread but thought it might be an idea to get some discussion going early.

All odds courtesy of Centrebet, no lines available as yet but you can pretty much guess what they wil be based on the ML odds:

Code:
ST KILDA	1.65
MELBOURNE       2.20
	
ADELAIDE	1.90
FREMANTLE       1.90

WEST COAST      1.40
SYDNEY	        2.90
		
COLLINGWOOD      1.46
WESTERN BULLDOGS 2.65
All I will say is wow to odds for the Sydney-Eagles game. I mean Sydney are my team but even the objective punter has to admit given the teams' recent history those odds on Sydney are huge when IMO Eagles should deserve only slight favouritism based on home ground advantage alone.

Freo were given a 17.5 point start a AAMI when the two teams meet only a matter of 3 weeks ago. Now they are at pk 'em, pretty much sums up Freo's surge to the finals and Crows' decline in the run into the finals. Will need to see the Crows team list for this one to have an opinion.

Saints and the Dees on Friday should be a very close game - given this is at the G, a ground that Melbourne have played well this season apart from that one game a month ago against the Swannies (they were severely short handed in that one) I can easily see the Saints getting done in this one. Saints won't be too much of a factor this finals series IMO on the basis of their reliance on Riewoldt and GTRain in attack and the fact that they do not travel well. To win a flag you need to be able to win on the road. One thing going in the Saints' favour is that they are a very good Friday night team, for one reason or another.

The final game on Sunday will again be at the G. Will again need to see the team sheets for this one, but one feels the Doggies have already achieved what they wanted to achieve at the outset of the season, that is to make the finals. I think their time to make a serious push for the flag will come in the next few years when their young list gains more experience, as there is no doubting the talent that exist in that club, especially with so many players to return from long term injury next season.

I have already taken the Swans ML, I can not see them drifting anymore this week and if anything they will be backed right in come Saturday night IMO. I will also be on the line once it comes out as well.


Swans to beat the Eagles - $2.90


good luck
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post #2 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-04-2006, 10:55 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

hmmm... personally can't see the Swans winning this one... WCE will get their revenge from last season and pound the Swans to the ground, imo... lol, but that's my opinion.

Really like the Dockers to beat Crows... too hot to handle and I just can't see the injury-plagued Crows stopping them...

My prediction for week 1 will be Saints, Dockers, Eagles and Pies ~
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post #3 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-04-2006, 11:34 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

took Swans at 5.5 for the flag.. i will wait after next week .. to hedge it when nessecary .

might try swans at whatever the line is .. usually the game is very close

Collingwood will take care of WB.

2 other games no bet..
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post #4 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-04-2006, 03:57 PM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Anyone know why the Collingwood game was taken off board earlier today. Then re-released with the Pies abit longer in the market ?

I'm sure I could find out with abit of digging but thought someone here might know first......
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post #5 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 01:08 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave nz
Anyone know why the Collingwood game was taken off board earlier today. Then re-released with the Pies abit longer in the market ?

I'm sure I could find out with abit of digging but thought someone here might know first......
same odds still exists at CB at Tuesday 11:00 AM .. collingwood 1.46 - WB 2.65

they were longer for a while because buckley was reported .. now he is cleared by AFL .. odds back to were it started
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post #6 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 07:47 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Fremantle look the goods, but the home ground advantage for the crows in the finals is always a major factor. $1.90 just doesnt seem worth it to me atm. Closer to the game i think Fremantle will drift to $2... but ill wait in see.

Il take the Swans Line if its higher that 12.5 and Fremo
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post #7 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 08:37 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

I think the three favs will get up and Freo in the even game.
post #8 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 09:37 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by bossboss
same odds still exists at CB at Tuesday 11:00 AM .. collingwood 1.46 - WB 2.65

they were longer for a while because buckley was reported .. now he is cleared by AFL .. odds back to were it started

I wasn't aware Buckley had been reported. Cheers......
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post #9 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:10 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

To be honest i still believe the Eagles will take out the Flag now,for some reason someone is telling me upstairs,lol!!!What a racker of a finals series!!!

Saints vs Demons - Cracker jack of a game,to be honest if the Saints are full strength they will cause Demons headsches,Dees dont have anyone 2 stop a rampaging Gehrig n Rievolt alos Hamill n Kozzy will cause trouble,sort of a miss match for the Dees,thats why the Saints are a difficult team!!!

Adelaide vs Freo - What another carcker of a game,geez ez this ones a ripper n hopefully it will be up to expectations!!!Crows showed tremedous grit n physicalness against the Dees no doubt they will be using the same Method which is brutal fatal tackling on their opponents requested by Craig n make sure it bloody hurts!!!No way they can keep up with a hard running Freo therefor stop any flow on the game!!Taking the 15pts either way could be ideal in this game aswell as the Saints vs Dees imo!!!

West Coast vs Sydney - West Coast comfortably,Big Lynch is in form n has got more experinced now then needed,West Coast middle is too much for the Swans,also no Hansen last yr which was another Blow to the Eagles who had a ifty forward line at that time due to inexperince n injuries!!!

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - Looked at the interview of Eade n geez he doesnt look confident,like a scared man!!Pies have the key positions to win the game,but they will need to make most of it since the Dogs will punish any lack of effort no doubt!!!

Good luck!!!
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post #10 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-05-2006, 10:17 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Lines are Out.....

WC Eagles X Sydney ..the line is -+15.5 .. which is very Odd .. because the line is the same as Pies X WB .. but the ML is different

pies are out from 1.45 to 1.5 now ..and sydney are down from 2.9 to 2.75 .. but still that doesn't make sense on the line
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post #11 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-06-2006, 05:00 PM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Yeh that swans line makes no sense, would rather hit either teams +15.5 makes more sense to me
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post #12 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 06:27 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Will have an AFL bet tonight following the rugby match I just posted. GL guys.
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post #13 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 06:55 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Dees to cover +5.5 v Saints - $1.90

good luck
post #14 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 07:35 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Dees to cover +5.5 v Saints - $1.90

good luck
taken the opposite, Saints -5.5 @ 1.92

at least one of us will win ~
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post #15 of 67 (permalink) Old 09-08-2006, 09:21 AM
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Re: AFL Finals - Week 1

Melbourne ML (+120) for 1 unit
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