AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!! - MensTennisForums.com
 
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post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-06-2006, 08:27 AM Thread Starter
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Talking AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Odds out at TAB!!!

Geelong 1.28- Essendon 3.45
Richmond 1.72 - Nth Melb 2.05
Adelaide 1.53 - Brisbane 2.40
Sydney 1.38 - St Kilda 2.90
Port Adel 1.20 - Hawthorn 4.15
Western Bulldogs 1.50 - Fremantle 2.48
West Coast 1.04 - Carlton 9.25
Collingwood 1.68 - Melbourne 2.10


Some tough games this week,Crows @ 1.53 looks to be the best bet of the rd again!!Leaning on Magpies 1.68 aswell with Tarant back in!!!!
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post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-06-2006, 03:38 PM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Richmond with Brown returning and assuming Richo is playing is value imo.
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post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-07-2006, 12:33 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by andrew057
Richmond with Brown returning and assuming Richo is playing is value imo.
Brown himself has downplayed his likely impact on Richmond, but regardless, what sort of state will the Roos be in after the emotional week they've had?? Massive task for Laidley to get himself off the canvass for this match let alone his team as well ..
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post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-07-2006, 08:26 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Gonna be one tough game Richmond vs Shinboners - Tigers have the upper hand with the their talls,but their comin back from a tough game against Dockers,surely Laidley will bring back big Sav no doubt,Petrie will have to fire big time aswell to hold up the 3 prong talls on Richmond!!!Maybe 1-19 either way is value imo!!
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post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-08-2006, 09:36 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

I got on Adelaide -13.5 with Pinny today at $1.95. They've taken their markets down now that Brown is probably out but the line is now 20 points roughly at most places so I was quite lucky there.

Taking West Coast -49.5 too
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post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-09-2006, 01:57 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Liking Adelaide & Sydney $2.06 ..
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post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-09-2006, 06:08 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Heres my betting preview for tonights game for those that are interested

Preview

Tonights game at the Telstra Dome, Geelong vs Essendon sees a side desperate for a win up against a side thats lost 9 in a row and already looking at draftpics with minds set on 2006/2007.

Geelong have been fast starters all year winning 8 of their 10 first quarters but seem to go down hill after that, they got upto a 54 point lead last week half way through the 3rd quarter vs the Eagles before it all come crashing down to lose by 3 points and have only won 1 of their last 8 games.

Essendons form is even worse not having a win since opening round with this could be their 10th straight loss. Last week in Adelaide they had an absolute flogging by 138 points and lost to port by 60 points at home as favourites.

Both teams are really struggling to get a reasonable score on the board geelong not cracking the 100 since round 2 and essendon since round 1.

The lines set at -26.5 which is quite high for 2 low scoring teams, Essendon have been able to keep their losses to reasonable margins against all the weaker vic sides.

I think Geelong will win tonight but dont see any value whatsoever at there current odds and the lines to high. Bbut since they are such fast starters and essendon so poor im going to take the Cats to lead at every break @ $1.95

1 unit Gee-Gee-Gee-Gee @ $1.95



High Goalscorer Value
Hard to see a winner in this market tonight as both teams dont really have a big name forward kicking regular bags this year.

In amatch like this 3 or 4 goals should top the goalscorers

For Essendon Scotty Lucas is the most likely to be able to kick a few with 4 times this year his been able to kick atleast 3 his paying $6.50 in this match.

Geelong seem to share there goals around alot more then most teams and my pick this week is to go wit small forward Chappy. He been in great form of late and always chips in with a couple of goals so will be looking forward to this game up against some weaker opposition.

Value: Paul Chapman $6.50

Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( Corey 3.75, ling 4.25, J Johnson 6.50, Ablett 6.50, Milburn 7.00, Lovett Murray 7.00, Johnson 7.00, McVeigh 8.00 )

Not going into to much detail into this one tonight as have my mind up without to much thought on Joel Corey tonight.

Watched this guy last week and he is an absolute champion and is so underated week in week out he does his job. Coming off a 36 possesion game against the Eagles last week and averaging 26 possies this year and being even more dominant in their wins. Doesnt have to bad of a past vs the Dons either racking up another 36 last time they met.

Value: Joel Corey $3.75


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post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-10-2006, 02:33 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by gahh
I got on Adelaide -13.5 with Pinny today at $1.95. They've taken their markets down now that Brown is probably out but the line is now 20 points roughly at most places so I was quite lucky there.

Taking West Coast -49.5 too
Your were very lucky up to 25.5pts now,still should be no problems same goes with Eagles!!
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post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-10-2006, 02:39 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

The line has rocketed up to Adelaide -25.5pts from the absents of Jonathon Brown,whats
amazing is that i sort of thought that should be the correct line with J.B in the side,feel both teams are on different par atm n it should show 2nite no doubt especially now J.B is out!!!Can see Crows posting a huge score!!!

40 units on Adelaide Crows -25.5pts over Brisbane Lions - Crows will finallly get a win in Brisbane n should be a BIG ONE!!!!Crows 40+ easy imo!!!!

Good luck- Other leans on Swans -18.5/Power -30.5/West C -50.5/Pies -7.5/Dockers +15.5!!!!
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post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-10-2006, 04:03 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Spotted a couple of plays that couldnt resist to play!!!

40 units on Mark Couglan 1.65 over Adam Simpson - Couglan had 35 disposals to Simpson's 22 therefor i like the younger man to continue his hot form n run ballistic all day 2day,seems like a steal!!!

30 units on Andrew Mcleod 1.90 over Michael Voss - Andy's running around to much for Voss's thesedays i feel he will claim more postions comfortably!!!

Good luck- Was looking at Ricciouto over Black aswell!!!
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post #11 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-10-2006, 07:52 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

bad luck sf

Coughlan had a bad day at the office even though richmond easily beat the roos- looking at the stats -did he get injured? Either that or a tagger was stuck to him all day with only 9 kicks 9 handballs

to be honest, i woulda pounded coughlan over simpson at even lower odds than that. Lucky my bookmaker doesnt offer possession markets

Good luck with ur other bets. I must admit, u got some balls -I wouldnt be brave enuf to bet against voss
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post #12 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-10-2006, 03:25 PM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by gahh
I got on Adelaide -13.5 with Pinny today at $1.95. They've taken their markets down now that Brown is probably out but the line is now 20 points roughly at most places so I was quite lucky there.
Talk about LUCKY. My GOD. I was quite beside myself in the last minute
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post #13 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-12-2006, 02:06 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

PP,yeah Couglan just had a shocker of a day without a doubt,Never again with Voss's shouldve known better with the champ!!!The bloody friggin rain stuffed up Crows big time!!Bad day in AFL,time to regroup next week,especially when the Blues almost beat the Eagles!!Not touching the Blockbuster for 2day but leaning on a thriller either way,maybe Pies on top at the end due to Rocca,Tarrant (both players too hard to stop with the Dess backline,therefor their middle would be working overtime,but the Pies are just as formiddable in the middle or maybe even stronger!!!
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post #14 of 14 (permalink) Old 06-13-2006, 02:58 AM
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Re: AFL-Round 11 almost half way!!!!

I'm officially cutting down majorly on the line betting, got out of jail with Freo +14.5 (by .5 of a point!) and the Adelaide (by 1.5 points) and my nerves can't take it.

I got the West Coast line badly wrong but I'm more than happy to! Got on West Coast at 1.50 at quarter time and 3.30 at half time to break even
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