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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-19-2006, 08:36 AM Thread Starter
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AFL Round 8

Didnt realise I hadnt put in tonights preview.

here it is

Preview
Tonights match at the MCG sees Hawthorn taking on Melbourne 2 teams going opposite ways the last few weeks. Hawthorn have been having some real trouble down back keeping opponents big forwards quiet with Brown, Rocca and Thompson all having feild days of recent times and has resulted in a couple of game losing streak. Melbourne however have turned around the early season form to win 4 in a row now including a massive win over Fremantle last week, good signs that they are getting multiple goal kickers right across the board.

The last time these 2 sides met hawthorn were at similar odds and it was the Hawks by 39 points. Willo had a day out kicking 8 while big guns Everitt, Hodge, Crawford, Mitchell and Batemen were all very dominant.

Both teams play the G relativley well with Hawks winning 3 of there last 4 there and the Demons 5 of their last 6 including playing the last 3 weeks there.

There shouldnt be to much in this one though Demons have a few to many forwards that hawks poor backline will have to take care of, they are the in form team and seem to step up when playing under lights.

1 unit Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.35


High Goalscorer Value
Hawks backline have had trouble keeping down opponents big talls of recent weeks so you would look at who could capatilise on this week. Only player you really look to there is Neitz who is getting on a bit and not playing very good footy at all at the moment averaging less the 2 goals a game this year. Melbournes forward line have been sharing the ball around alot and there hasnt been any real major contributors this year and this game could well be the same.

With Trent Croad out of this match who is such a key to the hawks forward line they really only have one option in this match to help them win it and that is to get it Willo. Kicked 8 against the Dees last time and this year is sitting 2nd on the goalkicking and each week consistently gets his 3 or 4 and an average of 4.5 games at home this year.

Value: Mark Williams @ $3.50


Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hodge 3.50, mitchell 4.00, mclean 5.50, johnstone 6.50, bruce 7.50, green 9.00, bateman 11.00, vandenburg 11.00 )

First looking at this I had already brang it down to 3 main contenders in hodge, mitchell and some big value on Cameron Bruce. Johnstone, Mclean and Green all get some good numbers for the Demons but never normally enough for high disposals which is pretty much the case for vanders and batemen aswell.

Bruce is having an outstanding year averaging 25 possies a game and has been the big standout so far for Melbourne. Mitchell is averaging his 27 and Hodge is averaging 24 but steps it up some more locally averaging 27.

So theres nothing Seperating this 3 there so you would assume bruce is the value but looking into matches of the past between these 2 teams Bruce has never really had many high posession games rarely reaching the 20 possie mark.

Last time Hodge played the Dees ha got a massive 35 possies but had never did much before this, also he does have a good average but his last 3 games Sam Mitchell has had more then him on all 3 games.

Mitchell I do think is the best bet as value here being the more consistent out of the 3. Racks them up week in and week out and has proved to get alot of possesions against the Demons in the past.

Could go to either 3 quite easily but Sammys my tip.

Value: Sam Mitchell: $4.00


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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 12:46 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Loving the Pussy Cats big time over the Pies!!!!!
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 12:59 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Agree SF .. gotta consider the travel curse for Collingwood .. returning from the West ect .. Cats need the win more too ..
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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 01:09 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL Round 8

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PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: Reply with quote
1 unit Adelaide -37.5
1 unit Kangaroos +23.5
0.5 unit Kangaroos $3.80
1 unit Geelong 1.92

not much time for writeups today.


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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 02:29 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant
Agree SF .. gotta consider the travel curse for Collingwood .. returning from the West ect .. Cats need the win more too ..
Yeah,plus the odds arent right therefor Cats win this one!also looking at the matchups its pretty even aswell as the bench!!!!Heart wants Pies to win but Head says Cats,bet with the Head n not the Heart,escpecailly if you have a faint heart!!!

40 units on Geelong Super Cats 1.87 over Collingwood Magpies - Like the look of Cats backline to hold of the Pies formidable forwards,but it was a tough game in Subi,hopefully it will take it out of them late in the 3rd quarter!!!!

Good luck- Other leans on Adel -38.5/Freo -22.5/Bulldogs +10.5!!!!
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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 08:59 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Swans to cover -10.5 v Dogs - $1.90

gl
post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 11:06 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Holy crap what is happening to Geelong? Curse of the NAB Cup? 118-24 and still a quarter to go!!
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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 11:18 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Quote:
Originally Posted by SadrieL
Holy crap what is happening to Geelong? Curse of the NAB Cup? 118-24 and still a quarter to go!!
It happens to teams which aren't very good
post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 01:32 PM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Swans to cover -10.5 v Dogs - $1.90

gl

Swans making their customary charge up the table now after the slow start, they are always a goldmine this time of the season

They are the team to beat once again

bet won
post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 03:42 PM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Swans making their customary charge up the table now after the slow start, they are always a goldmine this time of the season

They are the team to beat once again

bet won
I hope the Swans shut up Sam Newman big time,the guy was bagging em all season not to make the 8,hope he shuts up now!!!Nice call on champs mate!!
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post #11 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 03:49 PM
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Re: AFL Round 8

FFS Pussy Cats,geez ez what a friggin joke of a display!!!Men from boys,these boys wont make the 8 while the Men have a chance at the Holy Grail now!!!Of course theres a few teams that have a say in that!!!
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post #12 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-20-2006, 04:03 PM
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Re: AFL Round 8

After the Tigers upset there will be interest out there for other dogs to get confidence of another upset,one comes into mind are Carlton +17.5/Essendon +31.5/Port -11.5!!!!

Strong leans

Bombers +31.5 over Eagles - Too much pts to cover imo,i remember a game at the Dome when Lloyd booted like 8 or 9 goals straight n Hird best on ground,Cousins was best afield for the Eagles,this time no Cousins n Llyod,therefor Hird to run amok n
feed Lucas who nees to step up big time,this could be the game!doesnt mind playing against the Eagles aswell!!!!

Carlton +17.5
pts over St kilda - Blues seems to have a shot of new confidence,while Saints are hit with injuries n change team week in week out will unsettle sides!!!

Meduim lean-

Port Adelaide -11.5pts
over Brisbane Lions - Port has enough guns to take out the Lions n finish em off for good!!!

Most likely play Bombers,Carlton!!!
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post #13 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-21-2006, 01:26 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Hird did his hammy last week sports freak.

Carlton +17.5, Port -10.5 and WCE -32.5 I'm taking all today
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post #14 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-21-2006, 02:37 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Port Adelaide to cover -12.5 v Lions - $1.90

gl
post #15 of 17 (permalink) Old 05-21-2006, 03:02 AM
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Re: AFL Round 8

Quote:
Originally Posted by gahh
Hird did his hammy last week sports freak.

Carlton +17.5, Port -10.5 and WCE -32.5 I'm taking all today
Oh yeah that right Gahh,thanks mate i remeber now Sheed's applauded Malthouse decision with Buckley not travelling!!!Now my gut feel is sayin the Blues 2day,Port should cover while Bombers could be in for a hammering without Hird!!!!Want to back the Blues but dont want to back against the Saints if that makes sense,better of layin back n watch the Sharks truimp this arvo!!!!
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