AFL Round 4 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-18-2006, 02:59 AM Thread Starter
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AFL Round 4

2.75 Cartlon- Hawthorn1.43
2.00 Bulldogs -geelong 1.77
1.25 Lions -Richmond 3.8
1.7 Freo - Adelaide 2.1
2.65 kangaroos - WC Eagles 1.45
1.55 Sydney- Melbourne 2.4
2.1 Port -St Kilda 1.7
1.5 collingwood-Essendon 2.5

Lines are not out yet ..will post some selections later
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post #2 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-18-2006, 05:00 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

As far as value goes, Carlton are a standout at $2.75 in what is a toss of the coin game.. Adelaide are probably worth a go too at $2.10 against an inferior opponent at fortress Subiaco.

Always reluctant to back teams away from home but StKilda at $1.70 looks solid given that they're a superior side to Port and in better form than Port.
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post #3 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-18-2006, 05:03 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Could anyone in their right mind put money on Hawthorn at $1.45..? That'd have to be the sucker punt of the century ..

P.S. Depending on the extent of the Bulldogs' injuries, I'd say the price about Geelong is pretty good too given their likely level of anger after last saturday ..
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post #4 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-18-2006, 01:10 PM
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Re: AFL Round 4

shortest we have seen the pies and hawks in a very long time.

both probably relying alot on the injuryna suspension of the other teams stgar full forwards Matty Lloyd and Brendan Fevola.

Note Essendon do seem to rise to the occasion against the Pies, great record in the past. Hawks also havent got the best record at the Dome so isnt impossibel for the blues to take it upto.

Note Port has a 8 game winning streak against the Saints and St Kilda really have trouble winning interstate. Are a far better team though.


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post #5 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-19-2006, 01:25 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Shortest we've seen us for a long time.

We will flog Richmond - also the fact they played in Perth last week and now have to travel to Brisbane. Depending on what the line is, I'll be taking it.

St.Kilda are huge value against the hapless power. Tredrea will play for the Power but that won't be enough for them to win. Saints will flog them. I'm considering going to it just to see Port get flogged.
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post #6 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-19-2006, 01:25 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Melbourne are also good value against Sydney. The line in that match might be the go in Melbourne's favour.
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post #7 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 02:21 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Melbourne are massive value this week, along with Carlton. I'd have to check the sanity of anyone who would take Hawthorn at that price, I thought the betting would be even money. Carlton will miss Fev but Hawthorn will be on a downer after last week and expect to win it really. Teams put into an unfamiliar situation like that have a history of faltering. Fisher and Setanta will play for Carlton, with Kennedy a possibility. Bentick could miss though, but with Chambers out I'll be heavily leaning on Carlton, with extra at the line.

Melbourne just for value, I saw the Swans in person last week and honestly I spit on that team, what a disgrace to football they are. Hope anyone playing them beats them
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post #8 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 10:37 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant
Could anyone in their right mind put money on Hawthorn at $1.45..? That'd have to be the sucker punt of the century ..

P.S. Depending on the extent of the Bulldogs' injuries, I'd say the price about Geelong is pretty good too given their likely level of anger after last saturday ..
Hawks at 1.45 champ,mate dont miss out is the question,Hawks will make the Blues look SILLY,they should win quite comfortably imo and without the big Fev,the smile is getting wider by the minute,tempted on taking them 40+ aswell!!!!
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post #9 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 10:41 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi
Shortest we've seen us for a long time.

We will flog Richmond - also the fact they played in Perth last week and now have to travel to Brisbane. Depending on what the line is, I'll be taking it.

St.Kilda are huge value against the hapless power. Tredrea will play for the Power but that won't be enough for them to win. Saints will flog them. I'm considering going to it just to see Port get flogged.
Agree Lions will MAUL the Tigers,while Port will have it tough against the Saints!!
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post #10 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 10:44 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by gahh
Melbourne are massive value this week, along with Carlton. I'd have to check the sanity of anyone who would take Hawthorn at that price, I thought the betting would be even money. Carlton will miss Fev but Hawthorn will be on a downer after last week and expect to win it really. Teams put into an unfamiliar situation like that have a history of faltering. Fisher and Setanta will play for Carlton, with Kennedy a possibility. Bentick could miss though, but with Chambers out I'll be heavily leaning on Carlton, with extra at the line.

Melbourne just for value, I saw the Swans in person last week and honestly I spit on that team, what a disgrace to football they are. Hope anyone playing them beats them
Agree on Demons,good value imo aswell!!maybe the 1-19 option either team could be a good shot,but Save your Money on the STINKIN BLUES mate,Hawks will run riot!!!!!
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post #11 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 10:47 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Also liking the Pies over Dons and Wst Coast over Roos big and small leans on Freo!!Western Bulldogsvs Geelong either team 1-19 ( see an absolute thriller)
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post #12 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-20-2006, 01:47 PM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Heres some stats guys after 3 Rounds, they might not mean anything just yet but just tracking a few things anyway, take of them what you wish.

All units based on 1 unit a game


Trends
- Round 3 the Away team won 6-2 for +9.5 units
- Round 3 the Underdog won 6-2 ATS for +3.58 units
- Teams Travelling interstate are 7-8 for +1.91 units
- Underdog in lines over 20 has went 7-2 for +4.51 units


Heres a couple more im adding for teams coming back from interstate.

- Oppose Team coming back from an interstate game 6-4 for +4.35 units
- Oppose Team coming back from an interstate game off a win 3-1 for +3.56 units
- Oppose Team ATS coming back from an interstate game 7-3 +3.51 units


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post #13 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-21-2006, 03:09 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Carlton vs. Hawthorn
Friday 21 Apr 2006 at Telstra Dome 7:40pm

At the start the year these 2 teams were the wooden spoons favourites, but since then there has been alot of teams looking like they can be contenders for that spot and Hawks and Carlton have both showed signs of a much improved year.

Hawks have had a great start to the year by having a convincing win over FREO round 1, competitive with Collingwood Round 2 until Rocca took over and then a massive win over Flag Favourites Geelong last week at Shell Stadium.

Carlton also opened up the season with a win Round 1 and then stayed in touch with Freo and Sydney in there games aswell.

Fev has been a important role in those games and should be massive loss for them this week, Jarrad Waite looks to be out aswell and it is hard seeing where the goals are going to come from for Carlton.

Hawks did come away with the victory against Carlton last time these 2 teams played by 24 points at the MCG with Willo kicking 5 in this match.

Hawks have struggled at the Dome in the past not winning their in there last 6 matches though I think with their ruckman Cambell and Spider tapping it down to their so dominant midfield of mitchell, bateman and hodge will be giving the hawks forwards alot more then carltons forwards (what forwards) are going to have at the other end.

1 unit Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40


High Goalscorer Value
If you looking for any value in the High Goal scorer market you cant go past the Favourite here Mark Williams @ $2.60. Last 2 times these sides have met Williams top scored with 5 and 4. Fev is always a major factor against the hawks kicking a few bags and Waite is out aswell. If Willo can kick 4 here he should be right.


Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(Hodge, Mitchell, Crawf, Batemen, N Stevens, Houlihan, Murphy, Scotland)

Carlton have been very low in their disposal count each game this year so we can just about wipe there players out of the running in this one against a high possession hawthorn side. Nick Stevens has did good in the past against the Hawks with 26,26,24 last 3 times they have met but this year is only averaging 19 possies. For the hawks Mitchell and Hodge have once again been in outstanding form both averaging 28 disposals per game, Hodge does have the better record against Carlton though averaging 33pg in his last 2.

Value Bet here Luke Hodge $3.00


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post #14 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-21-2006, 05:56 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

GREAT write up Hawker. Im going against you.

Carlton 1-39 @ $3.55 for me.
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post #15 of 71 (permalink) Old 04-21-2006, 06:19 AM
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Re: AFL Round 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawker
Fev is always a major factor against the hawks kicking a few bags
Was a massive factor this time last year...

Carlton could get done, or they could win. It's not really a forward line issue, its a midfield issue. The game should be much closer odds wise.

I think Dylan McLaren is slight value at $35 to kick the most goals. Pagan just might throw him forward if he thinks similarly to me and he's a straight kick
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