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post #1 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-19-2010, 07:20 AM Thread Starter
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AFL - Rnd 5

Adelaide +39.5 @ 1.91 - Huge
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post #2 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-19-2010, 02:55 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

I like the bet as well, but not confident enough to pull the trigger. Prefer Bris, Hawks, Cats and Freo to all cover.
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post #3 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-20-2010, 03:40 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

LOL when was the last time we saw Fremantle at 1.04 to beat anyone?

Now I'm not necessarily saying Richmond are a chance, but am just providing some factors to consider:

1) Fremantle played a tough, physical game against the Cats, flew to Melbourne, played a tough, physical game against the Saints and flew back home. Will two tight games plus over 5000km of travel catch up with the Dockers?

2) This week, Sportsbet paid out on the Tigers for the wooden spoon. We've only played four rounds and Richmond are only bottom by percentage from Adelaide and a game and percentage from FOUR other teams. Do you think Damien Hardwick won't have made sure his players know that nobody in Australia rates them? Teams have a strange habit of lifting after things like this.

3) Richmond has won the last three against Fremantle including the last two in Perth:

Round 10, 2009: Richmond 4.3 5.9 13.9 17.13 (115) d. Fremantle 6.2 8.5 11.6 17.10 (112) at Subiaco
Round 21, 2008: Richmond 3.6 8.8 11.12 15.15 (105) d. Fremantle 5.1 10.3 13.5 15.8 (98) at MCG
Round 4, 2008: Richmond 5.7 10.11 14.13 20.17 (137) d. Fremantle 3.3 6.7 8.9 10.13 (73) at Subiaco

I don't have access to odds from those games, but I know for sure that the Tigers were underdogs in last year's win (although Freo certainly weren't 1.04).

As mentioned before... I'm not saying the Tigers are going to win or even cover, but it's just something to think about.
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post #4 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-21-2010, 06:05 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

The love for Freo is frightening. People think they are a top 4 chance? This team will crash and burn half way through the year.

Brisbane's odds of $1.28 against Melbourne speak value. We should be more like 1.10. No way will we lose to Melbourne. That price means the line will be lower than what it should be. This will be like the Port Adelaide game. One way traffic.

Melbourne have beaten two teams that haven't won a game yet and don't look like they will win a game for a while. Those odds are an insult to Brisbane. Melbourne are overrated due to performances against shithouse sides.

Freo $1.04 - I agree with the above, value in Richmond.
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post #5 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-21-2010, 08:06 AM
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Exclamation Re: AFL - Rnd 5

WDF

TIGERS +53.5 @ $1.90

10/10 UNITS

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post #6 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-21-2010, 09:57 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Brisbane betting is suspended coz Brown may not play.

If Brown doesn't play, the odds for Brisbane will be better. Good opportunity to make money this weekend.
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post #7 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-21-2010, 11:59 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
The love for Freo is frightening. People think they are a top 4 chance? This team will crash and burn half way through the year.

Brisbane's odds of $1.28 against Melbourne speak value. We should be more like 1.10. No way will we lose to Melbourne. That price means the line will be lower than what it should be. This will be like the Port Adelaide game. One way traffic.

Melbourne have beaten two teams that haven't won a game yet and don't look like they will win a game for a while. Those odds are an insult to Brisbane. Melbourne are overrated due to performances against shithouse sides.

Freo $1.04 - I agree with the above, value in Richmond.
Brisbane are the same have "just" beaten shit house sides after being behind the shithouse side for 3/4s , only good team was a flogged WBD at the gabba & also coming from behind...
I'm not sold on Brisaben , want to see the play Geelong, Saints, Coll'wood, Sydney away. I think Melb will really push them at the G, if WEC & Carlton can at the Gabba then the Dees will probly smash em.
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post #8 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 07:42 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

My Rd 5 picks...
Rd4 results = 6/8 & Season = 23/32

Fri 23 Apr
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

Sat 24 Apr
Sydney v West Coast
Melbourne v Brisbane
Port Adelaide v St Kilda

Sun 25 Apr
Collingwood v Essendon
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Fremantle v Richmond

Mon 26 Apr
Carlton v Geelong
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post #9 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 07:52 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

AFL YTD: 5-6
Best Bet: 0-1

Adelaide +39.5 vs Bulldogs (Best Bet)
West Coast +32.5 vs Sydney
Essendon +23.5 vs Collingwood
Richmond +51.5 vs Fremantle
Calrton +29.5 vs Geelong


gl
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post #10 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 07:58 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Bulldogs to cover -38.5 v Crows

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post #11 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 08:15 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Bulldogs -37.5 @ $1.91
Brisbane -19.5 @ $1.91
Brisbane 40+ @ $2.90
Fremantle -48.5 @ $1.91
Geelong -29.5 @ $1.91

Brisbane x Bulldogs x Sydney x Collingwood x Hawthorn @ $2.85

Good luck!
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post #12 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 08:57 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Adel/Adel/Adel/Adel @ 26.00
Total game score under 184.5 @ 1.90
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post #13 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 09:05 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Adding

Brisbane 60+ @ $5.25

The only way this bet loses is if Brisbane decide to go easy in the last quarter ala Port Adelaide.
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post #14 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 09:29 AM Thread Starter
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Extremely confident Adelaide will cover the line tonight. Extremely confident.
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post #15 of 28 (permalink) Old 04-23-2010, 09:54 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 5

Where is the confidence in the Crows coming from?
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