Re: AFL Rd 3
AFL Season Record: 3-2
Best Bet: 0-0
Round 3 picks:
Carlton -12.5 vs Essendon (Best Bet)
I have backed Carlton at the line in both Round 1 and 2 and this has been successful. I see this as the best bet of the week and the season so far. Carlton make the one change with Anderson making way for No. 12 draft pick Kane Lucas. Essendon make 6 changes to the side with Melksham, Colyer, Lonergan, Lovett-Murray, Reimers & Houli all coming in to the side and Monfries (Quad), McVeigh (Virus), Howlett, Prismall, Davey & Myers (All Omitted) making way. Essendon have one the past 5 vs Carlton and have scored an average of 131 points in these 5 games. Traditionally though Carlton have been destroyed by Essendons small quick players as well as Lloyd and Lucas who have had a feast on Carlton in the past. This time its different. No Lloyd, Lucas, Lovett and this week no Prismall, Monfries, McVeigh and Davey. Essendon will struggle to run Carlton off their feet as they have done in the past. Carlton are a much more mature, stronger outfit than in previous years and will learn from their past mistakes vs Essendon and slow the momentum of the game when or if Essendon begin to get a run on. Im not worried about the loss of Bower as Essendon certainly dont have a Brown and Fevola down in their foward line and i think this battle will be won and lost in the midfield. Carlton have a FAR superior midfield to that of Essendons and if Carlton can kick accurately this week it could be a blowout. Carlton probably should have beaten the Lions last week if not for some innacurate kicking at goal. This is a massive rivalry and that will make the intensity high and the match tough and close to begin with, but there is only so far that can take Essendon and in the even class will prevail. Game total backers beware, this will not be a high scoring game as it has been in the past. Carlton by 32 points.
Port Adelaide -1.5 vs Brisbane
Port have been the suprise packets of the season so far with a comfortable win over Nth Melbourne in rd 1 and they got the job done with a tough win against the Eagles away last week. In the past these two have fought fairly close contests and the line here reflects that but Fevola has not enjoyed AAMI Stadium in the last few seasons with Carlton and may struggle. I dont think Jonathan Brown will be enough here and I think Port will come home strongly to win a close one.
West Coast +2.5 vs Nth Melbourne
I base this bet on two main factors. How woeful Nth Melbourne were vs St Kilda last week and the return of Mark LeCras and Hansen, two xfactors who can change a game on their day. West Coast have more talent all over the field and should be able to knock off a young, inexperienced Nth Melbourne side for their first win of the year. I expect Dean Cox to be back to his best and for Naitinui to continue his impressive early season form. The main reason the eagles lost last week is because they didnt have a noted target down foward but that all changes this week with the return of lecras. Eagles by 12 points.
Adelaide -14.5 vs Melbourne
The return of Chris Knights is a big plus for the Crows and adds another attacking dimension. I think last weeks effort vs Sydney was somewhat of an aberration and we will not see the same pathetic effort from an Adelaide side who were expected to finish top 4 this year. The gulf in class between the two teams is astounding and i think this line is really generous and is based too much on the impressive performance of Melbourne last week. They cannout back that up two weeks in a row and even if they do i feel as though this Adelaide side will prove stiffer opposition than the Magpies and they need to make a statement this week more than any other club. This could be a giant letdown for Melbourne. Crows by 38 points.
May add more over the weekend.