Season Record: 1-1
Best Bet: 0-0
Round 2 selections:
Carlton +22.5 vs Brisbane
Last years elimination final loss to the Lions will still be fresh in the minds of the Carlton players. They go in to tonights match without Brendan Fevola and no doubt have less potency going foward. The x factor in this Carlton side though is Jared Waite who was outstanding last week in his return from a knee reconstruction. He has the ability to play foward, take a strong mark and kick a long goal as well as the athleticism to run with Jonathan Brown if he needs to.
Many would argue that Fevola is a uncoverable loss from the Carlton foward line but while this is true, I would also argue that the Carlton foward line is now more unpredictable than ever and rather than simply play 3 backs on Fevola like they used to, Brisbane now actually have to plan to negate the unpredictability of O'Hailpin, Henderson and of course Betts and Yarran who can both be extremely dangerous.
Apart from missing Waite in last years final, we also didnt have a full strength defence and tonight we will have a full strength backline, a backline that knows Fevola better than any other team. Add to that Robbie Warnock who now forms an awesome ruck tandom with Kreuzer and will put up a tough fight against the Brisbane ruck stocks.
I think its likely Brisbane will win this but Im not totally discounting a Carlton win, the Blues have too much class all over the park to get thumped here. If you think Brisbane will definitely win then back them 1-39 because I can assure you Carlton will stay competitive tonight. They have too much to prove.
Melbourne +46.5 vs Collingwood
You couldnt get two different contrasting sides from last week. Melbourne were abysmal. Collingwood were awesome. The press in Melbourne over the last week have absolutely torn Melbourne to shreds and there is a lot of pride on the line this week. Senior player Brad Green has come out and publically promised a stronger, more spirited performance. This is the only real resaoning I have because on paper they are set for another drubbing. There is no doubt in the world Collingwood will win this match, but the Demons cannot afford to put in another display like they did last weekend. And Collingwood, a team with awesome footskills and who play on momentum, will not be as accurate or precise with their skills on the MCG. I think Collingwood will win this by 4-5 goals.
Adelaide -12.5 vs Sydney
This bet is a dangerous one i acknowledge given the Swans ability to keep games close, tough, dour boring affairs and choke teams to the point where they cannot play their natural game. They do that well in Sydney and not so well away from home. But my main reason for backing the Crows here is because of their inclusions. They welcome back perhaps three of their most important players in Burton, Maric and Porplyzia. Adelaide will be stinging from their embarassing defeat at the hands of Fremantle last week and will be looking to bounce back impressiveley infront of their home fans. This game may be close but the two goal line is too tempting to ignore.
I may add some more plays as the weekend goes on.
Essendon vs Fremantle OVER 195.5- $1.91
This will be a very quick game with much end to end football. Both teams are noted for their hard running midfields and neither really has a potent foward line to speak of. Having said that neither team really has a solid defence with a lot of youngsters getting games pumped into them and a lot of errors are generally made. Weather conditions are not an issue as the game is being played at Etihad Stadium. I expected the game total to be set at 210-215 so this is a great value bet IMO.