Finally the AFL is here
I have stopped betting on all other sports (excpet a bit of Italian Football) to focus solely on AFL for the next 6 months. Its the only sport Ive consistently made profit on so why ruin it with other sports? Most of my plays will be line betting at odds of no greater than $2.00. All plays will be one unit and each week I'll gice my opinion on a 'best bet' which will be for 2 units. Good luck all
Season Record: 0-0
Best Bet: 0-0
AFL Round 1
Carlton to cover -16.5 vs Richmond
No Judd for the Blues, obviously no Fev and a lot of questions as to where their goalkickers will come from. I have been to watch Carlton twice in practice games this offseason and on both occasions, scoring was not an issue, kicking 14 and 13 goals on the two occasions with some very innacurate kicking. They will get enough shots on goal to thump Richmond, whether or not they can convert is another story. A foward structure of O'Hailpin, Henderson and Kreuzer rotating through with small fowards Betts, Garlett and our running midfielders in Murhpy, Gibbs, Carazzo will put enough scoreboard pressure on to trouble a young Richmond defence.
Richmond's strongest area is their midfield (which still isnt as good as Carlton's) and down foward they have limited targets with Riewoldt the only notable strong mark. Carlton had a lot of issues with injury in its defence last season but with a fully fit Thornton, Bower, Jamison I fully expect them to smother the Richmond fowards.
Dont get me wrong, I don't think Carlton will cover because they are a good side, but they are a much better team than a young, inexperience Richmond side who will win this years wooden spoon. I expect Richmond to start strong but for a more experienced, classier Carlton side to win by about 28 points.
Adelaide to beat Fremantle- $1.90
I watched Adelaide play Carlton a few weeks ago, a game where they were missing 9 of their best 22 players. They won the match by a point but that was irrelevant, the way they played was not to disimilar to their football in last years latter stages where they were able to change the games momentum with their style of play. They are a genuine top 4 chance and with a bit of luck could reach a Grand Final. The emergence of Kurt Tippett and Bernie Vince this year as two of the best players in the competition will be invaluable and they just about have winners all over the ground.
As for Fremantle, they are an unknown quantity every season. They have recruited McPhee in what was a questionable acquisition and look not much better on paper than their underperforming side last year was. If they havent worked on their disposal over the summer they could be embarassed on Sunday. The home ground advantage will help with their intensity and pressure and they may start well, but the gulf in class between the two sides is too great. Crows by 22.
I will post more selections as the weekend progresses, but do not like any other plays so far.