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post #1 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-23-2010, 11:13 AM Thread Starter
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AFL - Rnd 1

WOOHOO
My early 1st rd picks, only pick i'm more that confident with is Carlton over Richmond, I think Richmond will do worse than last year, if that is possible.
Good luck.

Thurs 25 Mar - Round 1
Richmond v Carlton

Fri 26 Mar - Round 1
Geelong v Essendon

Sat 27 Mar - Round 1
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Brisbane v West Coast
Sydney v St Kilda

Sun 28 Mar - Round 1
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fremantle v Adelaid
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post #2 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-23-2010, 03:05 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Agree with most except Collingwood won't win and Melbourne definately won't win. Hawks will flog Melbourne by over 12 goals.
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post #3 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-24-2010, 01:10 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Adelaide should also beat Freo, imo
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post #4 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-24-2010, 01:19 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Tigers to cover +16.5 v Blues
Swans to cover +14.5 v Saints
Crows to beat Freo - $1.90

gl
post #5 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-24-2010, 07:55 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Finally the AFL is here I have stopped betting on all other sports (excpet a bit of Italian Football) to focus solely on AFL for the next 6 months. Its the only sport Ive consistently made profit on so why ruin it with other sports? Most of my plays will be line betting at odds of no greater than $2.00. All plays will be one unit and each week I'll gice my opinion on a 'best bet' which will be for 2 units. Good luck all


Season Record: 0-0
Best Bet: 0-0
AFL Round 1

Carlton to cover -16.5 vs Richmond

No Judd for the Blues, obviously no Fev and a lot of questions as to where their goalkickers will come from. I have been to watch Carlton twice in practice games this offseason and on both occasions, scoring was not an issue, kicking 14 and 13 goals on the two occasions with some very innacurate kicking. They will get enough shots on goal to thump Richmond, whether or not they can convert is another story. A foward structure of O'Hailpin, Henderson and Kreuzer rotating through with small fowards Betts, Garlett and our running midfielders in Murhpy, Gibbs, Carazzo will put enough scoreboard pressure on to trouble a young Richmond defence.
Richmond's strongest area is their midfield (which still isnt as good as Carlton's) and down foward they have limited targets with Riewoldt the only notable strong mark. Carlton had a lot of issues with injury in its defence last season but with a fully fit Thornton, Bower, Jamison I fully expect them to smother the Richmond fowards.
Dont get me wrong, I don't think Carlton will cover because they are a good side, but they are a much better team than a young, inexperience Richmond side who will win this years wooden spoon. I expect Richmond to start strong but for a more experienced, classier Carlton side to win by about 28 points.

Adelaide to beat Fremantle- $1.90
I watched Adelaide play Carlton a few weeks ago, a game where they were missing 9 of their best 22 players. They won the match by a point but that was irrelevant, the way they played was not to disimilar to their football in last years latter stages where they were able to change the games momentum with their style of play. They are a genuine top 4 chance and with a bit of luck could reach a Grand Final. The emergence of Kurt Tippett and Bernie Vince this year as two of the best players in the competition will be invaluable and they just about have winners all over the ground.
As for Fremantle, they are an unknown quantity every season. They have recruited McPhee in what was a questionable acquisition and look not much better on paper than their underperforming side last year was. If they havent worked on their disposal over the summer they could be embarassed on Sunday. The home ground advantage will help with their intensity and pressure and they may start well, but the gulf in class between the two sides is too great. Crows by 22.

I will post more selections as the weekend progresses, but do not like any other plays so far.

gl

Last edited by Bolelli Ultra; 03-24-2010 at 08:02 AM.
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post #6 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-25-2010, 07:15 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
Finally the AFL is here I have stopped betting on all other sports (excpet a bit of Italian Football) to focus solely on AFL for the next 6 months. Its the only sport Ive consistently made profit on so why ruin it with other sports? Most of my plays will be line betting at odds of no greater than $2.00. All plays will be one unit and each week I'll gice my opinion on a 'best bet' which will be for 2 units. Good luck all


Season Record: 0-0
Best Bet: 0-0
AFL Round 1

Carlton to cover -16.5 vs Richmond

No Judd for the Blues, obviously no Fev and a lot of questions as to where their goalkickers will come from. I have been to watch Carlton twice in practice games this offseason and on both occasions, scoring was not an issue, kicking 14 and 13 goals on the two occasions with some very innacurate kicking. They will get enough shots on goal to thump Richmond, whether or not they can convert is another story. A foward structure of O'Hailpin, Henderson and Kreuzer rotating through with small fowards Betts, Garlett and our running midfielders in Murhpy, Gibbs, Carazzo will put enough scoreboard pressure on to trouble a young Richmond defence.
Richmond's strongest area is their midfield (which still isnt as good as Carlton's) and down foward they have limited targets with Riewoldt the only notable strong mark. Carlton had a lot of issues with injury in its defence last season but with a fully fit Thornton, Bower, Jamison I fully expect them to smother the Richmond fowards.
Dont get me wrong, I don't think Carlton will cover because they are a good side, but they are a much better team than a young, inexperience Richmond side who will win this years wooden spoon. I expect Richmond to start strong but for a more experienced, classier Carlton side to win by about 28 points.

Adelaide to beat Fremantle- $1.90
I watched Adelaide play Carlton a few weeks ago, a game where they were missing 9 of their best 22 players. They won the match by a point but that was irrelevant, the way they played was not to disimilar to their football in last years latter stages where they were able to change the games momentum with their style of play. They are a genuine top 4 chance and with a bit of luck could reach a Grand Final. The emergence of Kurt Tippett and Bernie Vince this year as two of the best players in the competition will be invaluable and they just about have winners all over the ground.
As for Fremantle, they are an unknown quantity every season. They have recruited McPhee in what was a questionable acquisition and look not much better on paper than their underperforming side last year was. If they havent worked on their disposal over the summer they could be embarassed on Sunday. The home ground advantage will help with their intensity and pressure and they may start well, but the gulf in class between the two sides is too great. Crows by 22.

I will post more selections as the weekend progresses, but do not like any other plays so far.

gl
thanks for taking the time to do a write up. I am going to bet Carlton on the moneyline.
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post #7 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-25-2010, 01:19 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Richmond spoon, nailed on
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post #8 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-25-2010, 02:32 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Melbourne have the spoon.

They are playing first year players all year. They have injuries. Richmond will win 4-5 games. Melbourne will struggle to win 3.
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post #9 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-25-2010, 11:37 PM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

From what we saw last night, I think Richmond will struggle all year to even win a single game.

Melbourne should beat them even...
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post #10 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 05:23 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Anyone else tempted by Essendon +26.5?
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post #11 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 05:42 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

What an atrocious match that was. Pathetic decision to open the season with it. Richmond won't win a game this year, not one. They are certainties for the spoon. Difficult to get a read on Carlton but I wasn't overly impressed... Still believe they will miss the 8.

Gee-Ess Total game score over 189.5 @ 1.90 - You have to go back to 2004 to find a game between these 2 sides where the combined score was below 200 points. Most of these matches were at docklands but conditions are expected to be fine and calm tonight at the G. I generally hate taking overs but couldn't resist here.

Jay Neagle under 1.5 goals @ 1.87
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post #12 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 05:54 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

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Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
Anyone else tempted by Essendon +26.5?
I'm more tempted by Geelong at the line given the beltings they've handed out to Essendon in recent years.
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post #13 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 06:14 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Careful with the over. It's been drizzling in Melbourne for the past 20 minutes. Might be worth checking the radar closer to game time.
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post #14 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 07:55 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

Geelong -27.5 @ $1.91

Good luck
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post #15 of 31 (permalink) Old 03-26-2010, 11:22 AM
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Re: AFL - Rnd 1

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Geelong -27.5 @ $1.91

Good luck
win
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